PalmSource and Microsoft Worldwide Share a Virtual Tie in 1Q

Worldwide PDA shipments declined 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2004, but the battle for the PDA operating system market has heated up as PalmSource and Microsoft were in a virtual tie in shipments in the first quarter of 2004, according to preliminary results from Gartner.

Palm OS shipments declined by 20.7 percent in the first quarter of 2004 compared with the same period last year. Palm OS market share slipped to 40.7 percent, while the Windows CE market share increased to 40.2 percent. Microsoft licensees have been steadily chipping away at the Palm OS lead since 2000, when Microsoft accounted for 11 percent of the PDA market.

"The decline in Palm OS market share in the first quarter of 2004 is not unexpected because many Palm OS users have delayed PDA purchases until they can evaluate PalmSource's upcoming operating system Cobalt," said Todd Kort, principal analyst in Gartner's Computing Platforms Worldwide group. "Palm OS has also been impacted by Microsoft's bundling of Outlook with every Pocket PC, and the preferred status that Microsoft Windows enjoys with enterprise application developers."

Preliminary Worldwide PDA Shipment Estimates by Operating System for 1Q04 (Units)

                                         1Q04             1Q03
                                         Market           Market 
                                  1Q04   Share     1Q03   Share Growth
Company                        Shipments   (%)   Shipments  (%)    (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Palm OS                       1,113,089   40.7 1,403,418   49.0 -20.7
Windows CE                    1,099,931   40.2 1,051,401   36.7   4.6
Research in Motion              405,000   14.8    89,500    3.1 352.5
Linux                            52,300    1.9    52,967    1.8  -1.3
Others                           64,490    2.4   268,278    9.4 -76.0
Total                         2,734,810  100.0 2,865,564  100.0  -4.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: Totals include cellular PDAs such as RIM BlackBerry 7230, but
not smartphones. PalmOne results include Handspring PDA shipments.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2004)

Research in Motion experienced the strongest growth among PDA vendors as its shipments increased 352 percent. Its market share jumped to 14.8 percent in the first quarter of 2004, up from 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2003.

On a regional basis, Western Europe exhibited the strongest growth rate, as PDA shipments increased 24 percent in the first quarter. The U.S. PDA market dropped 13 percent. The Asia/Pacific and Japan regions saw PDA shipments decrease 19 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Latin America PDA shipments were up 9 percent from the first quarter of 2003.

Preliminary Worldwide PDA Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 1Q04 (Units)



                                         1Q04             1Q03
                                         Market           Market
                                  1Q04   Share    1Q03    Share Growth
Company                        Shipments  (%)   Shipments  (%)    (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PalmOne                         834,738   30.5   933,421   32.6 -10.6
Hewlett-Packard                 579,842   21.2   455,115   15.9  27.4
Research in Motion              405,000   14.8    89,500    3.1 352.5
Sony                            230,666    8.4   376,909   13.2 -38.8
Dell                            163,800    6.0   145,170    5.1  12.8
Others                          520,764   19.0   865,449   30.2 -39.8
Total                         2,734,810  100.0 2,865,564  100.0  -4.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: Totals include cellular PDAs such as RIM BlackBerry 7230, but
not smartphones. PalmOne results include Handspring PDA shipments.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2004)

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Awful quite in here

EdH @ 4/30/2004 9:38:21 PM #
hmmm..... ;-)
RE: Awful quite in here
4s @ 4/30/2004 11:19:12 PM #
Not to mention quiet.

<><
RE: Awful quite in here
;-o @ 5/3/2004 2:09:30 PM #
Quite quiet. Quit it.

Sony going down
ray00pal @ 5/3/2004 7:12:02 PM #
I wonder why no one noticed that Sony's sale is going down. This should be the most shocking news! They make the best PDAs around. It is just not fair.

Sonys are insanely overpriced
;-o @ 5/3/2004 8:19:21 PM #
Sony dropping like a rock is not a surprise. How many people are going to spend $600 for a PDA? Their new models should regain them market share, but they deserve exactly what they got for pricing their hardware the way they did/do.


M. Visage

RE: Awful quite in here
Timothy Rapson @ 5/3/2004 9:22:06 PM #
I love the feature set of the Clies. I have an NR70V and would be in line for a TH55. BUT, I am not going to pay over and over again for Sony's greedy flawed Memory Stink scheme. I think MS is one fo the biggest reasons Sony PDAs are faltering. I don't think their camera sales are meeting expectations either. The Memory Stick has to go.

Sony going down
ray00pal @ 5/4/2004 9:40:58 PM #
Totally agree on the memory stick thing. That is definitely a key issue with Sony.

Sony's Memory Stick isn't going anywhere.
;-o @ 5/4/2004 9:47:09 PM #
I love the feature set of the Clies. I have an NR70V and would be in line for a TH55. BUT, I am not going to pay over and over again for Sony's greedy flawed Memory Stink scheme. I think MS is one fo the biggest reasons Sony PDAs are faltering. I don't think their camera sales are meeting expectations either. The Memory Stick has to go.

You want Sony quality? Memory Stick is the price you pay. And once you buy one Memory Stick device, you'll buy another... and another...and another...

The TH-55 is that free crack vial the dealer gives out or the razor Gilette gave away to hook the unsuspecting.

Sony's sales briefly tumbled because of overly optimistic pricing. They've made "adjustments" and now will be undercutting Palm, with much better quality to boot. Palm will be left n the dust selling mainly sub-$200 PDAs

And if you ever doubted Sony's digital camera designs, take a look at this:

http://www.dcresource.com/reviews/sony/dsc_t1-review/index.shtml

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0310/03102202sonydsct1.asp

Want one? Iv'e got your Memory Sticks right here, Buddy. While you're at it, can I interest you in a shiny new CLIE?


What Would Michael Mace Do? (WWMMD)
;-(( @ 5/5/2004 11:19:43 PM #
The flock needs direction in these troubled times. It's time for a true leader to step forward and calm the flock with a reassuring word or measured gesture.

No doubt these data are somehow skewed to make Palm look as bad as possible. I'll bet they didn't include the five Fossil watch prototypes that were made in January. Or all those copies of POSE running on alien picochip desktops in the Grassy Knoll sector of Area 51. I just know it.




Dear Lord, please bless the Caneman and Boy Blunder. Please keep them safe from harm.


Freedom of speech, baby. Gotta love it,

Mike Mace: Is PalmOS 6 going to debut with the new CLIE UX?
;-(( @ 5/7/2004 12:52:58 AM #
I heard this today, but traditionally Palm has been first with the new OS versions. What gives? And the new Tungsten is far too heavy. Why are you guys shooting yourselves in the foot again?

Freedom of speech, baby. Gotta love it,

Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this

Rome @ 4/30/2004 9:57:37 PM #
How can Gartner include Blackberry but not Treo 600 in a handheld market share research?

The RIM number also seems to be too high.

Did RIM or Microsoft pay Gartner to put out reports like this?

This is simply ridiculous.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
viqsi @ 5/1/2004 10:18:49 PM #
RIM is massively popular with mobile professional types, so I'm not too shocked there.

And where does it say they omitted the Treo? Sounds to me like it qualifies as a "celluar PDA".

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Rome @ 5/2/2004 11:09:04 AM #
Below is a link to a bargainpda.com report that points out that Treo 600 is NOT included in the Gartner research.

http://www.bargainpda.com/default.asp?newsID=2028

As for the RIM number, below is a link to a article that said RIM's subscriber based rose by 204,000 last quarter.

http://tinyurl.com/yvnl9

I don't care if MSFT or RIM is in the lead, but a research firm should never compromise its integrity when it comes to its work. Look at what happened to Arthur Anderson!

This is borderline fraud, and this makes me sick.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like thi
RhinoSteve @ 5/2/2004 8:11:43 PM #
I'm going to chime in here to give Rome, who started this threat, some acknowledgement. Yes, this is gray zone fraud and yes Microsoft pays Gartner lots of money.

However, if Gartner is ever pulled into Federal Trade Court, their very workable defense is that there is no established nor regulated method to measure market share in the PDA space since product classifications change so fast. This unfortunately is true and they take this doubt to the advantage of their sponsors.

Unlike some more regulated industries with Federal overwatch programs, like agricultural, airlines and automotive, the computer business has benn heavy defended to keep regulation from stifling innovation. Unfortunately, this also creates grossly interpretable market information.

There is an old quote that goes, "There are lies, damn lies and there are statistics." Gartner has taken this to heart. The bottom line is they are more concerned about *their* bottom line and not an objectionable view of the market.

If you want good product reviews, Consumer Reports now does PDA reviews about one or twice a year. However, they do not do anything in market share computation. I wish they did.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
AbigailS @ 5/3/2004 7:12:24 PM #
Rome & Rhino,

Try reading a bit and do the math before posting such inane remarks.

From RIM's April 7 financial report:
Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 was $210.6 million, up 37% from $153.9 million in the previous quarter and up 141% from $87.5 million in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 66% for handhelds.

$210.6 million x .66 = $139 million. If there were only 204,000 units shipped (you took their net subscriber additions), that would mean that each BlackBerry device shipped would cost an average of $681. Anyone familiar with the BlackBerry knows that is roughly twice what they typically cost. So there probably were close to 405 thousand units shipped as Gartner reported.

There is a tremendous amount of upgrading going on in the BlackBerry installed base, as users switch from older models to the new color 7000-series models based on 2.5G networks. Net subscriber additions are not equal to the number of devices shipped.

I suppose the math may be a bit too much for you yokels to comprehend. You are obviously the kind of people who shoot first and ask questions later.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
;-o @ 5/3/2004 8:24:14 PM #
Abby: You go, girl!!!!!!

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Rome @ 5/3/2004 8:53:49 PM #
Good reply, AbigailS. My research was flawed and I fully admit my mistakes. No excuses from my end.

It does appear that RIMM shipped 400K units of Blackberries in 1Q. Neverthess, I still believe that Gartner underestimated the number of Palm OS devices shipped in 1Q.

As for your other post regarding the fact that Gartner can't be influenced or bought, I have to disagree with you.....just call it personal experience.

Thanks for the correction on the Blackberry shipment number.



RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Rome @ 5/3/2004 9:11:13 PM #
"I suppose the math may be a bit too much for you yokels to comprehend. You are obviously the kind of people who shoot first and ask questions later."

BTW, this statement is actually kind of mean and funny....I guess I deserve it after my previous remarks on RIM.

Well then, allow me to demonstrate my limited math skill and hopefully I won't embarrass myself. Here are some additional data on Palm OS shipment: I went back and listened to PSRC's latest conference call again. The CFO specifically mentioned that its licensees reported shipping 2 millions units of Palm OS based devices from 12/03 - 2/04. I believe that Gartner had the Palm OS unit shipment at 1.1 million, excluding the Treo 600 shipment. If we take out the 200,000 units in smartphone shipment(137,000 by PLMO and 63,000 by others), we are at 1.8 million, 700K above Gartner's estimate. Of course, there is always the possibility that the CFO was lying to us.

As for your other point of Blackberry being a data-centric device while the Treo is not, therefore justifying Gartner's exclusion of Treo. This simply doesn't much sense since the latest Blackberries almost all have voice capability. Sure the Blackberries don't make a great voice phone, but this doesn't mean that the Treo should be excluded simply because it handles both data and voice well. Case in point - if you go to attwireless.com, you will see that BOTH Blackberries and Treos are listed under the PDA Phone category. In short, Gartner's exclusion of Treo and inclusion of Blackberry in its PDA market share report is highly unusual and illogical, especially when Blackberry didn't even make it in top 5 in a similar research report by Gartner's key rival IDC in the previous week.


RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
AbigailS @ 5/4/2004 1:37:13 AM #
Rome,

It's nice to encounter people such as yourself who are mature enough to admit mistakes.

One thing about the palmOne numbers - they do not correspond to calendar quarter 1, but instead refer to palmOne's fiscal quarter, which includes their biggest sales month of the year - December.

Given how certain PalmSource employees monitor websites such as this one, I think that if the Gartner estimate of palmOne sales were substantially in error, one of them would have pointed this out.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
AbigailS @ 5/4/2004 2:13:41 AM #
Forgot to add that since the 2 million quoted was from PalmSource for Dec. - Feb., while the 1.1 million Gartner number is only for palmOne for Jan. - Mar., you also need to factor out the sales of Sony, Garmin, Tapwave, etc.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Rome @ 5/4/2004 10:51:26 AM #
AbigailS,

To quote a smart lady who once caught me doing erroneous analysis:

“Try reading a bit and do the math before posting such inane remarks”

The 1.1 million shipment number was not the PalmOne number, but rather the Palm OS or PalmSource(PSRC) number, which should include all Sony, Samsung, Tapwave shipments. The PalmOne shipment, according to Gartner, was 835K. You can verify this info on the article above.

I am not questioning Gartner’s number on PalmOne, other than the fact that it left out
Treo 600 while including Blackberries. It is the worldwide OS market share number that I have issues with. If you go back and look at my previous post again, my analysis was centered on Palm OS.

It is also true that PalmOne’s biggest selling month of the year is December. However, to meet the strong retail demand in December, most of the handhelds were actually shipped during the Sept. – Nov. quarter. If you look at Palmone ‘s income statements, you will find that Palmone ‘s Nov. quarter typically generates the highest revenue of the year.

To use another quote (with a minor modification) from a smart lady who once caught me doing erroneous analysis:

“I suppose the reading(math) may be a bit too much for you yokels to comprehend. You are obviously the kind of people who shoot first and ask questions later.”

No hard feelings…..just couldn’t pass up the opportunity to give you a hard time. Thanks again for pointing out my mistakes on RIM.


RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
viqsi @ 5/4/2004 5:04:30 PM #
On the Treo exclusion: I've read that article, and I do not see anything conclusively demonstrating that the Treo 600, or the Kyocera 7135, or any of the Samsungs, or (for that matter) anything WinMobile Phone Edition was excluded (a direct statement from Gartner themselves would be a help here). I worry that this may be a bit of a partisan viewpoint that's getting put up, given that both assertions come from Palm-oriented websites ("But the number's GOTTA be higher than that! IT'S A CONSPIRACY!!!").

Please, back up the exclusion claim. It's been a while since I've gotten the opportunity to put my foot in my mouth. :)

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Rome @ 5/4/2004 6:38:11 PM #
I already did. It is in my second post on this thread. Follow the link.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
viqsi @ 5/4/2004 8:12:25 PM #
rome: Already done. "I've read that article" was referring to what you linked to. It's on PalmBoulevard, which is why I'm worrying about bias. :)

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
viqsi @ 5/4/2004 8:13:53 PM #
Actually, let me retract that. I just checked again, and apparently my trick memory got me. Oopsie.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Wollombi @ 5/5/2004 7:04:17 PM #
Abaigail, what you miss is this:

Blackberry units DO cost a lot more than the consumer's "sticker price". Just like cellular phones, the retail vendor gives the unit to you for less than their cost on the sticker price, but the unit is then subsidized via the service plan rates. So yes, a Blackberry could indeed cost the company (Nextel, Verizon, etc.) 600+ dollars, meaning fewer units would be shipped for the reported monetary amount.

I have to commend Rome for patiently bearing through your initial verbal abuse. It is more than could be expected of most reasonable people, seeing as your remarks were nothing short of inflammatory, saved by the fact that you threw in a couple lines of well-thought, but possibly erroneous, monologue. You would do well to avoid doing so in the future, but hey, that's just my opinion.

However, since your math may also be flawed, since you didn't bother to take actual business practices into account, who is truly the "yokel" that is "posting such inane remarks"? To further quote your own words, you seem to have, through your actions, made yourself out to be the kind of person who "shoots first and asks questions later"!

As for the quote by ";-o":
"Abby: You go, girl!!!!!!"

Heh. If you are who I think you are, I would expect nothing less of you. Wasn't your handle ";-)" before you got banned for being so inflammatory yourself? Have you decided that your better course of action is to encourage others to be inflammatory for you, sort of living life vicariously? If this is not you, then please disregard and accept my apology for the mistake.

_________________
Sean

Always remember that you are unique. Just like everyone else.

Abby: let's MESS him up!
;-(( @ 5/5/2004 10:38:43 PM #
Abby. This flamer just dissed you, Girlfriend. Bring it on MoFo!

Freedom of speech, baby. Gotta love it,

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Wollombi @ 5/6/2004 7:48:13 PM #
I see you changed your handle yet again. Just remember, folks, ;-o and ;-(( are one in the same.

_________________
Sean

Always remember that you are unique. Just like everyone else.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Wollombi @ 5/6/2004 7:49:03 PM #
BTW, it was not flaming. I made no true personal attacks on Abby as a person, I just stated that her actions made her out to look like the very thing she called Rome and Rhino.

How is the dissing?

Here is what a flame looks like...read carefully:

You are an irrlelevent, drooling idiot.

See the difference? Of course you don't, cause you're a vegetable with a keyboard.

_________________
Sean

Always remember that you are unique. Just like everyone else.

Flaming Wollombi
;-(( @ 5/6/2004 9:54:48 PM #
I said you were a flamer. Look up the definition of "flaming" and you'll see your picture. With you and Mickey Cane holding hands.

Freedom of speech, baby. Gotta love it,

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like this
Wollombi @ 5/7/2004 12:36:30 AM #
You seem to have this obsessive fascination with manlove. Perhaps you're a closet member of NAMBLA?

Heh. It figures.

_________________
Sean

Always remember that you are unique. Just like everyone else.

RE: Gartner should be shot for putting out research like thi
Winter_ @ 5/7/2004 7:18:25 AM #
See the difference? Of course you don't, cause you're a vegetable with a keyboard.

Oh shoot, you made me laugh out loud!! Inquiring looks! XD

Competition is good

Foo Fighter @ 4/30/2004 10:34:31 PM #
Personally I am somewhat happy to see and tie race. Maybe this will spur innovation and greater competition on both platforms, or certainly light a fire under the feet of both camps. I don't see anything wrong with that, do you?

Bring it on!

-------------------------------
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com

RE: Competition is good
Patrick @ 5/2/2004 3:41:19 AM #
Yes, competition is good. The only thing.. the ONLY thing... I care about is that M$ does not use its virtually unlimited funds to squash Palm OS. I want *both* camps to survive and flourish. I guess that is my only real complaint about PPC, and that is the potential for there not to be a Palm in the near future because of the marketing might and tactics of the Big M.


RE: Competition is good
palmato @ 5/2/2004 9:08:48 AM #
Right, it's MS who doesn't like competition. They have no problem in using dubious business practices in order to achieve their goals, and using their financial resources to pay for endless litigation.

However some of the current PalmOne problems are also of their own making. Drop in quality of products, especially in the higher end (T,T2,T3 woes) is pretty much evident.


------------------------
Tired of PPC? Get a TT!

RE: Competition is good
Foo Fighter @ 5/2/2004 3:07:35 PM #
>> "They have no problem in using dubious business practices in order to achieve their goals, and using their financial resources to pay for endless litigation."

True, but unfortunately this is a tactic used by many companies in the tech industry to get ahead. Adobe has attempted several times, unsuccessfully, to kill off its main rival Macromedia by filing copyright infringement suits. Adobe says it invented the concept of floating pallets, and got an injunction against Macromedia, forcing the company to completely redesign its software. Now...there are hundreds..perhaps thousands...of applications out there that use floating pallet toolbars. Why isn't Adobe going after them? Because Adobe saw a window of opportunity to kill off or cripple its competitor. Why try to compete with them when you can simply put them out of business? Very shady business ethics.

If you can't innovate...litigate. That's the way to get ahead in silicon valley. Microsoft may engage in seemingly unscrupulous strategies, but they ARE NOT alone.



-------------------------------
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com

Gartner is not to be trusted

RhinoSteve @ 4/30/2004 10:50:10 PM #
In my opinion, Garner is not the most trustworthy market forecasing company out there. They change market share formulas as much as they can to favor anyone that gives them enough advertising money.

Gartner, who has Microsoft sponsoring their conferences, is not going to look honestly at someone that else that doesn't sponsor them. I know several very good market researchers that have quit Gartner for having their research papers kicked back to "reevaluate" to give sponsors more favor.

The omission of any Smartphone data in this evaluation is proof of a bias. The hard stat is portable, handheld OS devices sold no matter what their packaging be it cell phone, stand alone or vertical.

Also, this data is freely given out to the public. In this game, you get what you pay for. When I see Gartner on any market report, I don't give it any value.

The bottom line is that this -20% "drop" in PDA share is due to the fact that the Treo is selling very very well but was left out of this report. Also, the PPC Smartphones are tanking with massive data storage, community failures (yes, PPC Smartphones are crashing mid-cell phone conversation) and thus returns are very high.

RE: Gartner is not to be trusted
JarJar @ 5/1/2004 11:30:13 PM #
Well it maybe true that Garner is not to be trusted, but would you still be objecting if they said that Palm was in the lead?

Nobody ever questioned the reports when Palm was strongly in front.

RE: Gartner is not to be trusted
StudentDoc @ 5/2/2004 1:49:29 AM #
This survey may be accurate, but the guy above is correct: Gartner will say anything for a price. I have worked for companies that paid Gartner for a lot of "consulting" that led to rave reviews for our products.
But I would not be surprised if PPC's were selling as well as Palms. I would have thought that CE sold more than Palm already.

RE: Gartner is not to be trusted
samheddle @ 5/2/2004 9:03:48 AM #
Look at the report carefully. It says that Handspring numbers were reported. What is the only Handspring device made? The Treo.

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