Research Reports PDA Penetration only 7% in USA
Jupiter Research forecasts that the U.S. installed base of handheld PDAs will number just over 14 million at the end of 2003 and will only grow to 20 million by 2008, a 7% penetration of the overall U.S. population. In addition, Jupiter Research reports that the adoption of these portable devices increases as their size and complexity of use decreases.
Jupiter Research has therefore identified the sweet spot for handhelds to be those that offer voice, personal information management (PIM) or a combination of the two, and focus less on other integrated functions. These findings were released in Jupiter Research's new report, "PDAs: Optimizing Integration". To clarify the marketplace, Jupiter Research created a PDA Taxonomy covering device form factor and identifying key attributes that define mobile usage. "We explored the reasons why vendors are creating multi-function devices and measured those against actual consumer demand for functionality and the number of devices people are willing to carry," said Jupiter Research Vice President and Research Director, Michael Gartenberg.
As part of the report, Jupiter Research conducted an independent survey to assess U.S. consumer demand for PDA features and form factors, and another survey to determine their willingness to carry multiple devices. "Basic PDAs with excellent PIM functionality will continue to make up the majority of sales while higher end devices will remain in niche markets only," Gartenberg said. "But as phones with integrated and functional PDA capability come into the market, they can spur growth opportunities for vendors while eschewing other less desirable features such as game play or media integration."
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RE: Advertise!
Oh well, I guess they let us sell their products 'by word of mouth', and call it a day.
"Saving the world, one Palm user at a time"
All good things...
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RE: Advertise!
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My blog: www.pocketfactory.com
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I gave a friend of mine a Zire for Christmas (yep, the original Zire) and she loves it. She has a masters degree and is a busy person, but she also does not enjoy or have any interest in computing. For her, gadgets are a bore.
But she has found that because she could learn the basic functions so quickly, she actually uses the Zire every day. However, there is no way she could (or wants to) learn how to do word processing, web browsing, wireless etc.
Market share will only take off when ORDINARY consumers (not the evangelists who read this site) can see good reason to change their personal habits and CARRY a computer with them. Hawkins was right - it's about people, not the computer.
Vx->m500->m505->m515->TT->T2->T3/TC
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Every yahoo has PIM capabilities on their cell phones which will evolve to rival PDAs (some already do). Then, while the target users will finally be capable of using these utilities, they sure won't need them in a standalone PDA anymore.
My SO has a crappy large old Nokia phone, but the alarms, calculator, and phone list are all he cares about where PIMs are concerned. And he already has them right there. Plus some lame games.
I often show interested people in the grocery store my shopping apps, or my checkbook app, and tell them the list of things my PDA can do. They seem intrigued, but none of them thinks they 'have the time' to use a PDA. If only they knew of the time they'd save! But in reality, they'd need someone else to set up their apps in order to gain that saved time, because they just wouldn't do it on their own.
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I personally consider myself a "power user" of the Palm PDA. I use it for everything and it has completely replaced my Dayplanner that I used to carry for almost 10 years some years back. I spent time learning about Palm and going out of my to find software for the palm to do the things that I want it to do. But most people that I have come accross that have a Palm don't even know you can add software to it and don't know where to go to get the software. Most people never use their Palm beyond the Simply PIM functions it comes with. This is where Palm needs to let the public know what else it can do.
But this is just my 2 cents worth.
RE: Advertise!
I don't think smartphones will ever catch on strongly, either. People want small phones with only a couple bells and whistles. Most people I know go through a few phones a year. These things are in conflict with what a good PDA should be. The features of a PDA and a phone simply just don't overlap that much. Most of the people I know who actually use their phones as PDA's own the more "PDA with a phone in it" kind of devices, like the Kyocera's and stuff.
Peace Out
Alan
Smartphones are where the growth is
1. Focus on creating a PalmOS "Phone Edition" which would be the best damn Phone OS on the market. The general public out there will buy a PalmOS smart phone - they will not en masse buy just a PDA. Businesses want dual-functionality as well. The Smartphone is where all the growth is.
2. Giving Nokia, Motorola, and DoCoMo, and the other 2 of the top 5 handset makers DIRT CHEAP ($19/unit) licensing for the next 3 years. Flood the market and become the standard. Short-term pain for long-term gain.
3. Going lean and mean and fire all the non-essential fat within PalmSource (Sorry Michael M.) so they can do #2 and still be somewhat profitable. Cut all expenses! Yes, there is still a lot of fat over there. Keep the few necessary programmers, hire a few good sales guys to schmooze the hardware makers and have at it!
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