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Gartner: Worldwide PDA Shipments Grew 7% in 2004

Led by strong growth by Research In Motion's (RIM) BlackBerry shipments, worldwide personal digital assistant (PDA) shipments increased 6.6 percent in 2004, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. palmOne still held on to the worldwide lead in PDA only shipments (i.e. discounting smartphone devices such as the treo) and held a 30% market-share lead under stiff competition.

"The PDA market has shifted from unconnected organizers overwhelmingly purchased by consumers to a market in which 44 percent of the devices shipped in 2004 offered integrated wireless area network (WAN) and/or wireless LAN (WLAN) connectivity," said Todd Kort, principal analyst in Gartner's Computing Platforms Worldwide group. "Wireless PDAs generally have higher ASPs, driving the market to record revenue. Another factor for the increased revenue is that nearly half of all PDAs are now purchased, or reimbursed, by enterprises."

Hewlett-Packard PDAs had an estimated ASP of $430, producing end-user revenue of $1.132 billion in 2004, which accounted for 26 percent of PDA revenue (see Table 1). However, RIM experienced the largest growth rate on a revenue and shipment basis.

"A major factor in RIM's recent success has been its ability to rapidly add many new carrier partners, expanding its geographical reach," Mr. Kort said. Approximately 20 percent of RIM's fourth quarter shipments were in Europe, and RIM is poised to become the world's leading PDA vendor, in units and revenue, in 2005.

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PDA Revenue Estimates for 2004 (Millions of U.S. Dollars)


Company
2004 Revenue 2004 Market Share (%) 2003 Revenue 2003 Market Share (%) 2003 - 2004 Growth (%)
Hewlett-Packard 1,132 26.1 988 26.5 14.6
palmOne 838 19.3 926 24.9 -9.4
Research In Motion 806 18.6 239 6.4 236.6
Symbol 253 5.8 232 6.2 9.0
Dell 215 4.9 159 4.3 35.3
Others 1,097 25.3 1,177 31.6 -6.8
Total 4,342 100.0 3,721 100.0 16.7
Note: Totals do not include smartphones, such as the Treo 600 or BlackBerry 7100, but include wireless PDAs, such as the iPAQ 6315.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2005)

palmOne continued to ship more PDAs than any other vendor in 2004, but it experienced a 10.7 percent decline in worldwide PDA shipments in 2004 despite the retreat of Sony from the market. palmOne has been increasingly focusing on the smartphone market, and about 1.1 million Treos were shipped in 2004. Gartner does not include voice-centric device shipments in the PDA results (see Table 2).

Table 2
Preliminary Worldwide PDA Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2004 (Thousands of Units)


Company
2004 Shipments 2004 Market Share (%) 2003 Shipments 2003 Market Share (%) 2003 - 2004 Growth (%)
palmOne 3,726,172 30.3 4,171,690 36.2 -10.7
Hewlett-Packard 2,664,151 21.7 2,270,086 19.7 17.4
Research In Motion 2,178,000 17.7 604,521 5.2 260.3
Dell 693,126 5.6 582,020 5.1 19.1
Sony 480,648 3.9 1,404,289 12.2 -65.8
Others 2,544,422 20.7 2,490,435 21.6 2.2
Total 12,286,519 100.0 11,523,041 100.0 6.6
Note: Totals do not include smartphones, such as the Treo 600 or BlackBerry 7100, but include wireless PDAs, such as the iPAQ 6315.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (February 2005)

The Windows CE operating systems (OS) has steadily gained share in the PDA OS market. In 2003, Windows CE accounted for 37.7 percent of the worldwide PDA OS market. In 2004, Windows CE became the No. 1 PDA OS when it accounted for 43 percent of OS shipments. Palm OS has slipped from 50 percent of OS shipments in 2003 to 36.3 percent market share in 2004.

"Microsoft-based PDAs have gained favor mostly due to their affinity with the Windows PC market and Microsoft's ability to attract more than 30 licensees around the globe," Mr. Kort said.

Additional information is available in the Gartner Alert RIM Sparked PDA Market to Grow 6.6 Percent in 2004. The Alert provides preliminary results for the worldwide PDA market in the fourth quarter of 2004, as well as year-end results. This document is available on Gartner's Web site.

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The writing is on the wall

palmdoc88 @ 2/15/2005 5:50:13 PM # Q
If palmOne continues its focus on smartphones alone it'll go the way of Handspring and the Dodos.....

T3 & T5 user
Isn't this the same research firm that lied the last time?
Frenchie @ 2/15/2005 7:50:44 PM # Q
If i recall, wasn't this the same research firm that fudged up the shipping and sold items to make it appear that PPC shipped more then Palm?

The world will end in 2006. Just as it was predicted in the bible along with the release of Microsoft Longhorn.... :p
RE: The writing is on the wall
Gekko @ 2/15/2005 8:03:25 PM # Q

yes - it's all part of one big conspiracy against Palm.

RE: The writing is on the wall
Frenchie @ 2/15/2005 8:23:32 PM # Q
Thank you gekko for clearing this up. We should petition against this Micro$oft infested research firm. If they had any reliability before they blew it when they said PPC shipped more then Palm!

The world will end in 2006. Just as it was predicted in the bible along with the release of Microsoft Longhorn.... :p
RE: The writing is on the wall
Rome @ 2/15/2005 8:23:47 PM # Q
sigh....again, the Treo sales was not included. Add 1.1 million units to the P1 number and it will show that P1 beat HP by a wide margin.

RE: The writing is on the wall
RhinoSteve @ 2/15/2005 10:12:05 PM # Q
These stats are not valid at all. Include the Smartphone sales and you will see something signifigantly different here.
RE: The writing is on the wall
EdH @ 2/15/2005 10:22:39 PM # Q
Agreed. Smartphone sales should be included, and sales from the Treo will inflate Palm's sales. And you should include sales from the Audiovox SMT 5600, Motorola MPx200/MPx220, the iMATE SP3i, Samsung i600 and the half dozen other Windows Mobile powered smartphones not included in this survey.

Then include Nokia and, as you said, the picture is very different.

RE: The writing is on the wall
ginsberg @ 2/15/2005 11:00:36 PM # Q
Keep your heads in the sand, guys.

Actually, Microsoft licensees also shipped around a million smartphones, so Microsoft licensees shipped more handheld devices (PDAs + smartphones) than PalmSource licensees in 2004.

Maybe you guys will wake up after the Microsoft-based Treo ships and then PalmSource will really be in trouble.

RE: The writing is on the wall
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 2/16/2005 1:15:35 AM # Q
Agreed. Smartphone sales should be included, and sales from the Treo will inflate Palm's sales. And you should include sales from the Audiovox SMT 5600, Motorola MPx200/MPx220, the iMATE SP3i, Samsung i600 and the half dozen other Windows Mobile powered smartphones not included in this survey.

Then include Nokia and, as you said, the picture is very different.

How dare you bring an intelligent comment into this thread? Infidel!

Unfortunately for PalmSource, Windows-based smartphones are actually taking off quickly and that OS is shipping on a wide variety of hardware these days. PalmOS, on the other hand is available on a Treo 650, a two year old Samsung, and a few obscure Asian third tier companies. The momentum is clearly with Microsoft.

PalmSource needs a MAJOR announcement along the lines that Sony Ericsson (or Samsung, or Sanyo, or LG, etc) is SHIPPING a whole lineup of PAlmOS phones.







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Press release: CUPERTINO, California — February 11, 2005 — Apple® announced today that Steve Jobs will begin selling his own feces to Apple Cultists beginning March 1. Apple's new iPoo™ lineup is expected to easily surpass the iPod shuffle as the company's most popular product. Yes, Apple Cultists can already easily create their own iPoo™, but feces didn't seem cool until Jobs told them it was cool. Remember, kids: the ONLY cool feces is Jobs' highly individualistic, rebellious iPoo™ (coming soon in six different colors/flavors, including the red [hematochezia] and black [melena] U2 GI bleed model)

*************************************************************************************





******************************************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

RE: The writing is on the wall
GrahamBM @ 2/16/2005 4:01:59 AM # Q
I think Leapfrog's Leapster sold more units over Christmas :)


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Emotional Stages of a Palm Apologist

Gekko @ 2/15/2005 11:09:49 PM # Q

Emotional Stages of a Palm Apologist

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

And at what stage are YOU?



RE: Emotional Stages of a Palm Apologist
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 2/16/2005 1:30:35 AM # Q
Try not to copy EVERYTHING I say, Geeko.





*************************************************************************************

Press release: CUPERTINO, California — February 11, 2005 — Apple® announced today that Steve Jobs will begin selling his own feces to Apple Cultists beginning March 1. Apple's new iPoo™ lineup is expected to easily surpass the iPod shuffle as the company's most popular product. Yes, Apple Cultists can already easily create their own iPoo™, but feces didn't seem cool until Jobs told them it was cool. Remember, kids: the ONLY cool feces is Jobs' highly individualistic, rebellious iPoo™ (coming soon in six different colors/flavors, including the red [hematochezia] and black [melena] U2 GI bleed model)

*************************************************************************************





******************************************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

RE: Emotional Stages of a Palm Apologist
Surur @ 2/16/2005 7:32:44 AM # Q
As usual the numbers are again confusing, with various different devices included or excluded. I would personally have counted the Treo, as it has a touch screen.

In any case, there are two questions that we pda enthusiast want answered:

1) IS MS or PALM WINNING.
As usual this is not properly answered by the numbers, but looking at the PLMO graph it linearly regresses nicely to zero in June 2005 :twisted:
http://surur.sytes.net/palmnosedive.jpg
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLMO&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

2) The more important question: ARE PDA@S DYING?
Todays numbers are encouraging, especially the increased revenue. Again its not clear exactly, as we dont know whats included and whats excluded. Here is a nice story then that confirms the market is burgeoning. HTC has raised revenue by 97% in one year!
http://www.msmobiles.com/news.php/3550.html

Now we know HTC makes the best devices (mostly Microsoft, but palm devices too). They are clearly making money, and if you make money you are not going to abandon the market. Now HTC's financial health does not differentiate between phone edition devices and normal PDA's or HP or Palmone devices. However to answer the question of the health of the PDA market I dont really care, as Im sure we will all transition to phone type devices over the next few years in any case.

So, HTC is making money hand over fist, and is planning to release 20 more models this year, which is the clearest indicator that the market is doing very well indeed.

Surur

RE: Emotional Stages of a Palm Apologist
relyons @ 2/16/2005 12:27:35 PM # Q
You left out the most important stage: The Stage Of Zen!

I'm sitting Indian style with pinched hands at shoulder length. A PalmOne Tungsten T5 is in my lap. I'm humming. "Ohhhmmmmmm."

Eric Lyons
Palm OS Developer

P.S. I ordered an unlocked Treo 650 yesterday. I hear Gekko mutter, "Damn, Eric! I cannot break Eric from the Zen with my fear, uncertainty and doubt. CURSES ZEN OF PALM! CURSES!" I watch Gekko shake his fist in disgust.

Reply to this comment

Inconsistencies in reporting

Token User @ 2/16/2005 9:43:58 AM # Q
Why would they include RIM devices, but not other SmartPhones?
Why does the IDC report show a decline, while this one shows growth?

Lie, damn lies, and statistics.

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
EdFrmBrighthand @ 2/16/2005 9:48:26 AM # Q
Because BlackBerries are cellular-wireless handhelds, not smartphones.

The definition Gartner uses to separate these two groups is how the devices are primarily intended to be used. Smartphones are phones first, PDAs second. Cellular-wireless handhelds are PDAs first, phones second.

By that definition, BlackBerries are definitely handhelds, and should be included in this list.

The Treo line is a tough call. It's a good balance between phone and handheld functions, so deciding which group to include it in isn't easy. However, palmOne calls it a smartphone, so I don't think anyone can protest that Gartner classifies it that way.


-----
Editor-in-Chief
Brighthand.com

RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
EdFrmBrighthand @ 2/16/2005 9:56:17 AM # Q
IDC shows a decline because it says that anything with a cellular-wireless modem in it is a smartphone and therefore isn't counted in its total of handheld shipments. This means no BlackBerry shipments are counted, nor is the iPAQ h6315, or other devices like it.

I couldn't disagree with this more. Cellular-wireless capabilities are clearly the future of handhelds. So at some point in the future, thousands or even millions of cellular-wireless handhelds are going to be sold each year, but according to IDC the market for handhelds will be dead.


-----
Editor-in-Chief
Brighthand.com

RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
Gekko @ 2/16/2005 10:20:10 AM # Q

I think the solution is to look at SALES REVENUE. What companies are GROWING REVENUE? What companies are LOSING REVENUE? Then, also compare PROFITS. This will provide the clearer picture - not units.

RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
Surur @ 2/16/2005 11:02:04 AM # Q

HP and Dell are hardly going to break out their figures for each segment of their company, to tell us if they are making or losing money on their handhelds. Ive seen on this very board that people thought the Dell x50v was selling poorly and losing money because Dell was handing out steep discounts, whereas in Europe it is completely sold out even though it is twice the price there than in the USA (due to import duties and exchange rates etc). Dell is clearly making a profit. What we do know is that HTC makes PDA's and phone pda's for a variety of vendors, and that they doubled their profit and increased their revenue by 66%. This can only mean that sales are higher and components are getting cheaper too, which means HP must really be gouging the market with their very expensive devices and making an even more massive profit. Maybe they are making more PROFIT on a single HP 4700 than on a lower end HP laptop, without even replacing fully the need for a laptop.

So to all the people who think this market is going to be abandoned soon: Maybe Palm will be leaving us, but PDA's and pocketpc's (with phones in them) will be around for a long time.

http://www.msmobiles.com/news.php/3550.html

Surur

RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
Gekko @ 2/16/2005 11:35:35 AM # Q

But we can simply look at the revenues and profits of TWO companies:

PSRC, PLMO

If their revenues and profits are consistently falling, we know they are screwed. Regardless of whether or not it's competitors taking revenues/profits away or if it is simply a shrinking market makes no difference in terms of simply assessing the viability of both companies. Whether someone shoots you in the head or whether you drive off a cliff - you're still dead either way.



RE: Inconsistencies in reporting
Token User @ 2/17/2005 7:42:45 AM # Q
I think the solution is to look at SALES REVENUE. What companies are GROWING REVENUE? What companies are LOSING REVENUE? Then, also compare PROFITS. This will provide the clearer picture - not units.

Eek. I agree with Gekko. My point at the head of this thread is that depending on the company doing the report, the stats will be different. the reality is that the underlying sales numbers are profit/loss numbers are the same, but by slicing and dicing in specific ways, the reports can be skewed to paint a rosy picture or doom and gloom.

As the definitions blur, these reports become more, and more meaningless. Are the Garmin devices counted - aren't they a GPS with some PDA functionality? Palm push the Treo as a SmartPhone, so don't hit the stats in this report - but like most Blackberry users, I would bet that the user spends more time on PDA functionality (either online or offline) than on telephony.

Reality is that they need a consolidated report - sure, have seperate PDA, SmartPhone, and "connected" device reports, but also provide a consolidated view.

Bottom line is the Gekko is right - its all about profit/loss and shareholder value. You would be better served looking at Hoovers (market analysis site, not the vacuum cleaner company) for the health of the industry.

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

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