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Palm VII successor
It is true that Palm's future is software, not hardware, but a very large part of their future will be collecting monthly access fees from Palm.net subscribers. So it is my opinion that Palm will not let other Palm licencees out do them when it comes to selling handhelds that will require monthly service fees. Palm is trying to become the Microsoft/AOL of handhelds. I think Palm will break new ground themselves when it comes to the "connected handhelds." Palm will not want to see companies such as Handspring or Sony collecting monthly fees...
Palm's 3 C strategy:
Cover the world with Palms OS PDAs
Connect the Palms to the internet
Collect all of the monthly fees
RE: Palm VII successor
RE: Palm VII successor
One more point - there is an advantage to building the device as well as the OS (at least for now). I think part of the Pocket PC's problem is that the division between the software and hardware vendors is too great. Palm has to build a device that pleases customers, not an OS that satisfies its licensees. This focus keeps them to the "Zen of Palm" that they so desparately want all of us to buy into.
NO not a Palm VII successor
">qcp-6035 and use my phone minutes to be online. I expect to have "unlimited" plans specifically for the "palm phones" by the time the http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=1720
">Samsung phone comes out.
In Response to "No not a Palm VII successor"
I know about the sprint deal...but that will not stop Palm from collecting monthly fees. Just like the current deal with the Palm VII. Palm.net service is not provided by Palm. Palm pays a telecom service provider for the Palm.net coverage and Palm simply adds a premium to that cost in order to make a profit on the service. So palm is only making profit on the markup. This will probably be done again with Sprint. Even if Sprint provides service, Palm will get a cut.
And yes: There will be a Palm VII successor:
"Palm also plans to unveil wireless e-mail for its devices by year's end. The new machines would compete with Research in Motion's BlackBerry products, which feature miniature keyboards." from a 3/27/00 Bloomberg.com article by Greg Chang.
and
"Palm this year will introduce the first devices developed by the new crew. A revamped Palm VII, due out in the fall, will incorporate email notification and, per Yankowski's order, it will be lighter and thinner-much like the fashion-focused Palm V."
from the Business 2.0 4/3/01 issue
So there will be another wireless handheld from Palm...the successor to the VII.
It probably won't have a "m" in front of the number b/c I believe Carl Yankowski said on CNBC last week that the "m" is for manual connections to the internet...through their mobile internet kit. Maybe it will be an "a" series...automatic?
Good Points - Different View
The Palm VII
============
The Palm VII was the first Palm OS device that offered a straight forward wireless handheld. It was easy to setup and has a bigger area of coverage than OmniSky. Certainly OmniSky may be a better product, but if you look at all the various items Palm had to pull together to make this work, it's amazing. They had to have the hardware, the wireless technology, Palm.net and then persuade people to built content for it. IMHO Palm hit a home run with the VII. That's not to say it's the best in category, but I haven't seen any other handheld company attempt a feat of this scale.
The Palm V
==========
If memory serves, I think the Palm V is Palm's most successful model. It's been a few years since it's release so it's a bit "last season," but it really broke the mold on what a handheld could be.
Although Handspring has been leading the way in the past year or so, the Edge is an also ran compared to the Palm V.
That Said...
============
I don't think Palm is going to be much of an innovator and I anticipate that they will lose some market share as time progresses. The hardest thing about being a Palm OS licencee is outdoing Palm! LOL
If you recall, the PDA space was dead as a doornail before the Pilot 1000 and it's taken it's original inventor - Jeff Hawkins - to out do himself with Handspring.
Sony has had a pretty lame product thus far, due IMHO to their corporate branding concept with Memory Stick, etc. Their new color device may change all that, but they have some stiff competition.
The one to watch in my book is Handera. I'm REALLY looking forward to their next device and I think it's going to make them a serious player in the PDA space.
===
The bottom line is that Palm will get to have it's cake and eat it too. :)
Good point, Still bad move
I Simply disagree...
I Simply disagree with your thought, though I love innovative extras added to PDA as an ongoing efforts. If we are the Borg (from Star Trek), then your points are sound - the only concern is technology and achieving absolute perfection. But, we are living in a world of diversity - we are not the Borg; we are not all scientists; we are not all using PDAs! Palm has its own principle and philosophy in making PDA and Palm OS as successful as a profitable business. By given resources at Palm, I do not believe they can survive to this date by keep cranking out something way-innovative but yet affordable to majority consumers with longer product life-cycle.
Think about how many people actually fully utilize the 8MB memory in their Palm IIIxe/Vx? Think about how many road warriors primarily use their PDAs to listen to MP3 songs? Different people have different needs and life-styles. I respect that. However, it is so obvious that the most of us use our PDAs for making things in a more organized fashion, so we can store and retrieve a substantial amount of information reliably, efficiently with proven technology. Of course, new innovation comes out everyday. I am not surprised that our expectation on PDAs is going to rise too. But, I have seen so many false phrophets, empty wishes and vapor-ware! Think about how many PDAs in the market (or even 6 months from now) will have bluetooth, Home RF or 802.11b work flawlessly with other wireless devices? When will all expansion memory / storage formats eventually be the unified to an industrial standard? When will the PDAs be small enough yet accessible when build into the cellular phones not just in GSM? These are the challenges for the innovation. What we want is not necessarily what we need all the time.
Until then, "simple sets me free (at least)!"
Howard.
Good point, Still bad move
I ask again, where is the innovation? Oh yes, I forgot. They fill the gap for the low-end users who can't offord other PDAs and those who have a hard time operating anything remotley more difficult than a wall calander.
RE: Good point, Still bad move
Good point or not, BAD choice of WORDS
Why can't you be more polite to others? Since when a PDA becomes an essential good? Who are the high-end users and who are the low-end users? Are you promoting fascism?
Howard.
RE: Good point, Still bad move
I'm sorry, but I don't understand this comment, or your previous comment about designing an O.S. that has capabilities that the licensees can choose from. IMO, Palm's OS has proven itself to be just that. Sony tweaked it to get MP3 capabilities, Handspring tweaked it for the Springboard. Almost everything that the WinCE has said it can do, the Palm has also been able to do. The beauty of the Palm OS seems to be that its simplicity allows it to be extremely flexible, whereas WinCE is expensive, bulky and complex.
On another tack, I'm sure the 8Mb issue is something you won't be talking about in the future, however I see very little need for more memory at this point in time...."You may not ever go beyond 8 megs of memory my friend, but I and many other professionals do and have a great need to do so...." I consider myself a pretty heavy user of my IIIxe. As an architect, I carry drawing files on it to job sites, I sketch details on it using sketch software or a SmartPad, I have ebooks, AvantGo content, Vindigo content...close to 1000 addresses, calendar appointments, Map software, job site photographs, a few games, word processing and printing software, tide charts, a foot/inch calculator...And I've still got a good amount of room left. So I really don't see your point as regarding the current state of things, but I do agree that the future will only bring more memory requirements.
L8R.
Palm Maybe Can't be as Innovative...
Also, it seems like they don't exactly know what they strategy is. Some people say it's to become purely software, some say it's going to be a mix of hardware/software/services... and these are people in the company. So what's it going to be?
The way things are now, Palm collects maybe $6-10 per device a licensee ships, and at least $60 per device they manufacture (this is pure profit). And I doubt they can raise license fees. What would you rather collect per device sold?
Just my thoughts...
RE: Palm Maybe Can't be as Innovative...
Do you want to make $100 on one unit sold or $10 on 200 units sold.
Looking to the future, the market/manufacturer/consumer trends and the speed of these trends, I'll take the gamble on the latter anyday from where Palm is sitting. Granted they have the share to support hardware sales today, but when the units of other manufactuers pick up in sales and Palm integrates more into a feature rich OS causing more mainstreaming and compatibility of other devices, I believe the latter will prove to be where the $$$ is.
RE: Palm Maybe Can't be as Innovative...
look at microsoft. they're doing pretty well sitting back raking in dough every time a pc ships with windows. and that oem windows disk always comes with the happy disclaimer: "please contact your pc manufacturer, not microsoft, for support." it doesn't get any easier and profitable than that! :)
RE: Palm Maybe Can't be as Innovative...
Palm m505 _IS_ innovative
* Removeable storage/expansion: Only the current CLIE comes close with the Memory Stick slot. Visors that directly take Springboards are larger, as is the Visor Edge with its Springboard adapter.
* Color screen - The Visor Prism has a comparable screen, and is a brick. The new CLIE has a better screen, and is a brick. The Visor Edge has comparable size, but has no color.
And there's other stuff, too. But the new Palms fit the most stuff in a non-brick form factor. And that's pretty innovative to me.
RE: Palm m505 _IS_ innovative
but i'd bet many first-time palm customers WILL think the m505 is innovative, since it combines the features of all existing palms (expandability (although not many modules are available yet), color, usb, form factor, flash rom) into one unit.
i don't know what palm's overall strategy is, but introducing the m505 is NOT the way to get out of the market. :)
i also agree that at this point it's way too early for palm to consider leaving the market they created. i'd bet there are many folks who might like the extra features in a visor or clie, but end up buying a palm simply because they're the biggest name. many retail stores and websites don't even offer visors (so it's amazing they have 26% of the market share).
at this point, palm still needs to stay in the game and innovate, lest people looking for a name-brand product migrate over to compaq or hp.
RE: Palm m505 _IS_ innovative
Innovation is more than raw specs; it's a good mix of capabilities in a usable/portable size.
True the M505 isn't the highest resolution device, or the fastest device.
It's a slim 65K color device with a small form factor for expansion devices, and excellent battery life.
What other PDA's come close? Briefly I'll share my experiences with the IPAQ & the Visor Prism:
IPAQ: Nice(!!!) display, too bulky for my taste, poor battery life.
Prism: Cheapo construction (the prism feels cheap in my hand, and the paint came off the buttons on the Prism pretty quickly), poor QC (I had two Prism's I had to get replacements from Handspring for), below average display quality, and while the springboard is innovative, it's too bulky.
My guess is we'll see high speed (ARM) high resolution Palm devices when:
1. Battery life isn't compromised
2. When such a device can be designed into a small convenient package.
So, by my criteria, the M505 is innovative.
RE: Palm m505 _IS_ innovative
In response to the original article.... it's interesting, but I have several doubts about Ed's theories because I disagree with the assumption that the M505 isn't innovative.
I think it is innovative to be able to squeeze a color screen and expansion slot into a device that thin and light (and still have a decent battery life). Sure, the 1st generation Japanese Clie has color, but its screen is smaller, the device is thicker, and it uses a slower CPU. Sure, higher resolution would be nice, and Palm is moving towards that.
Look at it this way... PPCs are generally pointed to for an example of innovation. But they haven't moved beyond 320x240. PPCs still use CE, which is based on a desktop OS (and still uses a registry and shared DLLs, which can cause many many problems). The PPCs GUI is still catching up to Palm's 1st generation GUI in terms of ease of use and efficient use of screen space. The PPCs are still less efficient than Palms and Psions (memory use, CPU power needed, battery life). PPCs are still larger and heavier than Palms (yes, the IPAQ is smaller than the Prism and IIIc, but is larger than the Clies and M505. The Aero is smaller than the Visor and IIIx, but is larger than the V, Edge, and 1st Clie).
I'm not saying PPCs aren't innovative... they are (no other devices have a color reflective TFT with a 206 MHz CPU in a 6.2 oz package). But some of what is being called innovation is really fixing something that doesn't work well.
RE: Palm m505 _IS_ innovative
A couple more thoughts
This is an interesting discussion. I wanted to add a couple more thoughts for you to chew on...
--First, in response to a question, Palm does not have a master plan to get out of the hardware business. But we are doing a lot to formally separate Palm's hardware business from the OS team, so licensees can feel comfortable collaborating with the OS team at the same time as they compete with the hardware guys. The OS and hardware folks are now two totally separate divisions with different presidents. That's a very recent change; in the past, the company didn't have enough people to make completely different divisions.
So we're not getting out of hardware, but we're also not intentionally restraining the licensees from innovating.
--Because the break into divisions just happened, until very recently the hardware team had no resources of its own to add extensions to the OS in support of new features. The same people writing the OS were the ones creating add-on features for the hardware. This put Palm's hardware at a competitive disadvantage relative to other licensees, who could create their own new features before the OS made them available to others. We've now separated the R&D teams, so the Palm branded hardware will be able to add its own new features, just like Handspring and Sony and others.
--I won't get into the argument about whether the m500 and m505 are innovative. Innovation is in the eye of the beholder, and I think different people will have different perspectives. For me, getting color and an expansion slot into that size and weight is a very big deal, and I really like it.
--There is a little confusion about the feature set of future products. I have said that a Palm VII follow-on with notification is coming in the second half of the year, from Palm. I have also said that higher resolution screens are coming from some licensees (one of them, Sony, just announced). But I did not say (or did not mean to say) that all of those features will necessarily be built into a single device. It's very hard today to combine the size and power needs of a cellular radio, higher-res color screen (which uses a lot more memory, especially if you want 16 bit color), and expansion slot into a single device that has what we feel are acceptable weight and size. We're still in the era of tradeoffs, and will be for a long time to come.
Is Palm's strategy of enabling innovation by partners lazy or low-risk? I think it's actually the only choice when you're competing with big deep-pocketed companies like Microsoft and the Symbian consortium. There's no way Palm could fund all the necessary R&D itself. This way Palm users benefit from the combined R&D investment of Palm, Handspring, Sony, Kyocera, HandEra, Samsung, Garmin, other licensees, and thousands of developers.
I think that between us we're demonstrating a pretty cool rate of innovation on the Palm platform as a whole. And there's more to come.
Mike
Palm, Inc.
Palm, Inc.
RE: A couple more thoughts
That being said, I think that the Palm OS world is on the verge of having to move to a new platform (this is the ARM direction). The consumer really doesn't care about innovation - he cares that the device does what he needs. As the market matures, however, these needs become more intense (wireless connectivity as opposed to synchronization) and make more requirements on the platforms that support them. How far would we go with graphical web browsers on the original PC, for example? The danger is not making the move at the right time. Palm's next generation moves (OS 5/ARM support, among and other things) is really pushing the timelimit for the current technology.
RE: A couple more thoughts
http://www.pfdf.org/leaderbooks/L2L/winter2000/hock.html
RE: A couple more thoughts
Matt
RE: A couple more thoughts
Palm is great today because it hasn't gone for the all the cool junk that intereferes with the 80% feature set we all use. I want long lasting, lightweight. MP3's? You have got to be kidding... Heck, unless color really lasts longer I'd prefer slightly higher resolution black and white...
RE: A couple more thoughts
Please be well. Kim B. Wei
my next Palm
These are the same people who own a Palm Pilot Professional, a Palm III, a Palm V, a Palm Vx, and a Palm VII. This is NOT an accurate portrayal of Palm's market, or any market for that matter.
Everyone whines about how the new Palms don't have this, they don't have that, blah blah blah.
I hate to break it to some of you folks, but I bet a lot of Palm Personals and Professionals are still being used EVERY DAY. They didn't have crap for memory, the screens sucked, the backlight sucked, no IR, old Palm OS, etc. etc. etc. But you know what? They still work, and still do what they were advertised to do.
I originally had a Palm Personal. It was in daily use until I bought a VII a little under a year ago. I didn't upgrade until there was aproduct on the market that was radically beyond what my current device was capable of. My original Palm was a sophisticated digital organizer. My VII is an organizer, a personal communicator, and a media portal. Sure, it would be nice if it had more memory (I would probably get it upgraded to 8 Megs if it were the newer revision that can be upgraded). It would be awesome if it had a high-res color display. It would be nice if it had built-in rechargables (although honestly I kind of like the flexibility that using NiMH AAA batteries provides). It would be really nice if it had an SD/MMC slot, and it would be super-duper nice if Palm.net could support push services.
But, it doesn't. However, it still does everything I need it to, and more. It is an absolutely incredible device, and there is simply no reason for me to upgrade it any time soon. Here is what my NEXT Palm will have (not PPC!), and I imagine I will buy it a year or two from now:
- built-in wireless service that supports "push" content
- an SD slot, _if_ the standard has proven itself a year or two from now -- will CD/MMC be on the new ARM Palms?
- a much more powerful processor, definitely an ARM -- why bother upgrading to what will essentially be legacy hardware a year or two from now? My VII is perfectly sufficient for a Dragonball-based Palm, even if the processor is slow as heck -- I might overclock it one of these days
- a very nice screen, color, beyond 160x160
- built-in rechargables that are capable of several days of serious use. As it is, I tend to recharge nightly. Not a big deal!
- a _very_ slick form-factor
- more than 8 Megs of internal memory!
Now obviously, none of this is going to be a reality any time soon. And I don't expect Palm's next device, after the m505, to offer all of these features. Am I going to piss and whine about it? No, technological progress is a step-by-stp process. I can gradually see the Palm-Pilot-of-my-dreams coming together, and it's exciting to watch. Palm is not going to go out of business before that point, that I am pretty certain of. It also seems pretty clear at this point that Palm/Palm OS has WON the handheld war, at least at this point.
I would rather see more cool applications come out for devices that already exist, than see a whole new slew of devices come out every few months. For instance, every once in a while when a new killer Palm VII application or PQA comes out, it seems as if my device has a whole new life to it. When I bought it, it was not capable of chatting over ICQ. Or downloading maps from the Verizon yellow pages. Or sending IMBot messages (this is awesome for close-range prank calls! ;) ) Or even surfing the web with the Digital Paths browser.
Let's be happy with what we have, people! The killer device will be out someday -- until then, take advantage of what you already have! Chances are, it is sufficient for your needs. Do we really need Bluetooth at this point? Why bother, what would be do with it?
Enough ranting for now... :)
RE: my next Palm
Just a few months ago I bought PalmIII upgrade and now I can use my palm with my Motorola Timeport phone (email,...) and for now that is all I need.
complimennts
My compliments for this article! It is exactly the answer to those who do NOT understand that Palm is not trying to sell a philosophy but wants to make money. It is not the question to make the best device - it is how to spread the market as quick as possible.
Coopetition is the keyword.
Thanks
Dumbing Down
btw...EXCELLENT site.
What' s a Cresenda - a blue m505?
Go to the bottom under compare devices and see a blue m505? What's up?
Jeff
RE: What' s a Cresenda - a blue m505?
What about a IIIcx?
When are they going to release a new III series model with 65k (or more) colors? I love to keep up with technology, but I'm not ready to throw out my III modem, keyboard, travel cradle, recharger kits, etc to go to an m505. I'd like to see a new III model. Anyone know if anything is in the works?
RE: What about a IIIcx?
RE: What about a IIIcx?
If I want to keep my two years old Palm Pro upgraded to 2Mb and want to buy a modem or a keyboard, I'll find a second hand one which will be (I hope) quite cheaper than a brand new one with the new connector. And I'll be more likely to find one if other Palm Pro / Palm III owners feel like changing to a new device.
Of course, I'll be distanced by technology, I won't have the last model, but maybe my goal is just to have a Palm that fits my needs.
Anyway, today, nothing except envy forces me to change.
My 2 cents
III conector, V conector, 100 conector.. 500 CONECTOR! WHY do they fool around with the conector so often? I would like to be able to use an accesory with any palm! A wired modem to be used with any palm..the m100 mp3 player to be used in the III series! etc etc
Palm just changes the connector because its their way to force us to buy a new palm that's not really innovative.
-Palm doesn't innovate, yet they release a new palm every week (sarcasm), that will be old the next week (no sarcasm here).
-why does palm have the bigegst market share if they make old school devices anyway?
RE: My 2 cents
They say this time they changed their connector, and afterward they will apply this to future models. But how about others, Visor also changed their connector from Visor Edge, also Sony's New Clie uses new connector partially compatible with old Clie. What are they thinking about?
The real issue is Memory
RE: The real issue is Memory
RE: The real issue is Memory
Palm Strategy
I have had a run on all the machines from HP200LX to the IBMPC100, Win CE and Pocket Pcs and Psion, and now trust Palm to come up with something reliable and useable everytime (unlike Microsoft)
Spin the PalmOS off as a separate co.
I read on Business2.0 that Palm is collecting $8 per license. Based on the volume that Handspring has sold so far that's not insignificant cash.
Plus, if the PalmOS division is spun out, they'll have in Palm itself a great big sugar daddy with virtually millions of guaranteed licenses every year.
Add this to the fact that the Palm market doubles every year, I think that's a pretty compelling case to bring the PalmOS division to the market and raise some serious funds.
My two cents ... :-)
RE: Spin the PalmOS off as a separate co.
Small, and compact. Does everything I need it to do. Programs are cheap and sometimes Free. Cannot get better than that!!
Insite
Music, movies etc. (much of which I do not use) plus the wait!!!
The truth is its hard to compare specially when nobody is saying much about anything. And reviews about the clie are scarse.
I have compared the sony 300 clie and the IIIxe palm and the screen difference leaves a lot to be desired on the clie (which I presently own). The IIIxe screen is clearer and the view is wider. Reason why I am considering the 505.
There are also more periferals for palm vs none for sony so far. Support on palm is better. Sony has not been able to give me any information on the 700 clie at all other than what is found on this site.
So to all of you out there... think about it.
Sony won't replace, won't upgrade, won't support, and the operating system is still going to be 3.5.
Don't get me wrong, I am practically married to them
2 laptops, clie etc...
And...
Same mistakes over and over again
Only if you see the Palm as an extended organizer might you see sound as a luxury...but then you would probably see the Palm as a very expensive organizer.
grammar
Please do not contrbute to the spread of bad grammar.
"... is where the real money is."
Rob
RE: grammar
what is the difference b/t palm cresenda and a regular palm
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Thoughts
Ok, off topic I know, but don't you think Microsoft should consider Palm if/when it is broken up and has to share it's OS independent of it's software? Maybe they could learn something from this afterall and who knows, a breakup may actually help them.
Sorry for the tangent. Great views!