Comments on: Opinion: My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002

At the end of the year, it is human nature to either look back over the year that is ending or look ahead toward the coming year. Long-time contributor Mike Cane has decided to play Cassandra and give us his predictions for what we can expect over the next twelve months.
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How about this...

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 8:56:35 AM #
Palm finally makes memory expansion truly seamless.

I have a hard time believing palm OS 5 will work so well given the headaches involved in getting expansion memory to work.

Apple will not release a audrey like device which would cannibalize iMac and iBook sales while providing thousands of support headaches on a low margin device.

RE: How about this...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:45:17 AM #
Agreed...Apple will never license Palm OS so long Jobs is at the head.

2002 iPod PDA
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:54:52 AM #
Prepare for a new 2002 iPod from Apple which will feature a Newton-like Apple proprietary OS/Applications along along with color screen and hardware expansion capabilities. This is a super-top secret project at Apple, and they are finishing the final prototype as we speak. Look for it around end of Q2.

RE: How about this...
Smaug @ 12/28/2001 9:22:03 PM #
I highly doubt it, not only did apple get spanked on the newton. The handheld market is oversaturated with little room for another player, especially at apples prices.

RE: How about this...
He||Raiser @ 12/29/2001 2:11:05 AM #
Remember, Jobs has been becoming much more loose towards other products recently. He's jumped on the Microsoft bandwagon by integrating MSIE and MS Office into the MacOS. I was doing research for a speech on the computer industry and I found a quote from Jobs in which he said that he believed that the new version of Office for the Mac would be the poster boy for the way software for the Mac should be designed. Scary huh?

RE: How about this...
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 4:08:28 PM #
Jobs went with MS software because MS propped up Apple with a little $100M investment... (still, MSIE beats the hell out of Netscape!).

RE: How about this...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 12:01:54 AM #
> Jobs went with MS software because MS propped
> up Apple with a little $100M investment

Not really. The $100M investment was symbolic, didn't mean much for cash-rich Apple or Microsoft., and Microsoft has already sold all of that stock. Yet Apple continues -- in appropriate forums -- to be friendly with Microsoft because Apple needs to keep MS Office on the Mac. Jobs is smart enough to understand that, and has done an excellent job working with the Microsoft Macintosh Business Unit -- a division that has (ironically enough) produced some of the most Mac-like software that is out there. Go figure.

I predict that the iPod's capability will be expanded, but I don't see it becoming a Palm-like device. Apple realizes that there is not much money to be made in that sector right now.

Instead, I predict that Apple's focus on Palm will simply be to encourage development of Palm software compatability with Mac OS X. Steve Jobs tried to buy Palm a while back, and it would have been one thing for Apple to own this market, but without owning the market I don't see Apple making any Palm-like devices any time soon.

-Jeff

oh my god!

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:05:54 AM #
Man mike cane, you are AMAZING! All your predictions actually seem like they will come true! Wouldn't that be great if it were... Palminfocenter is VERY lucky to have you as an exclusive author.
PDANature - http://pdan.has.it - Great hourly refreshed pda news, discussions, chat, reviews, commentarys, software, software update notices, features, and what not! Simply the best. http://pdan.has.it

RE: oh my god!
mikecane @ 12/28/2001 1:37:41 PM #
I expect to be about as right as Criswell. You should be that lucky!

RE: oh my god!
Foo @ 12/28/2001 1:58:19 PM #
You know what's really pathetic? That site is using a poorly "hacked" graphic, stolen from TechTV's site. And it still looks like crap.

RE: oh my god!
mikecane @ 12/28/2001 2:17:49 PM #
I just went there. The entire site looks like crap.

RE: oh my god!
digichimp @ 12/28/2001 3:43:30 PM #
I recall a certain Mike Cane predicting the death of Sony in the PDA industry. I could be wrong but the industry is in such a flux; we're in for some surprises.

RE: oh my god!
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:49:25 PM #
sorry mike, i still do think your editorial was amazing. But you personally is no wheres near THANKYOU!PDANature - http://pdan.has.it - Great hourly refreshed pda news, discussions, chat, reviews, commentarys, software, software update notices, features, and what not! Simply the best. http://pdan.has.it


RE: oh my god!
Edward @ 12/28/2001 7:56:51 PM #
what ever size I put my browser window at, the site is always larger ...

LMAO

RE: oh my god!
Coyote67 @ 12/29/2001 2:18:37 PM #
All of these are completely possible, except the little PVR thing. In order for Tivo to be legal, the data can not be moved off. Sony has no right to alter the tivo format anyay. Sorry, that is totally out. Although someone might have said that already.

---------------------------------------
When you have a Clie shoved up your mouth, you can only talk in vowels.
RE: oh my god!
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 4:09:35 PM #
I think the Slashdot crowd would find a way around that. Plus, the Copyright laws for TV taping would allow it, I believe.

Resolutions

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:52:28 AM #
I just hope Handspring and Palm make new year's resolutions to get with the program and make high-rez screens like Sony and Handera. It seems bizarre that Palm and HS seem unwilling to try. I'm happy enough with my Prism, but I'd like to see them wake up and smell the high resolution coffee. :)

RE: Resolutions
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 3:02:57 PM #
Yes! One of the missing predictions! High resolution in OS5. SHould be compatible with at either Sony or HandEra.

Tim Denton

RE: Resolutions
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:37:22 PM #
I do wish virtual graffiti would catch on!

Unlearn Grafitti? Did that years ago!

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 10:22:26 AM #
Been using Jot pretty much since I got my Palm 3 years ago. Why bother with grafitti anyway?

RE: Unlearn Grafitti? Did that years ago!
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:38:08 PM #
How fast are you? Do you use the Graffiti area or on-screen?

RE: Unlearn Grafitti? Did that years ago!
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 7:13:16 AM #
I kinda like the graffiti, i can write fast on it(as fast as someone is talking to me and thats without even looking

better than anything else, nice thing is that i dont have to move my hand across liek on a piece of paper...

Hmmmmm...

Quik_Fix @ 12/28/2001 10:52:24 AM #
Though I agree with so much that Mike says, I wonder if some of it might not happen in a year. Perhaps it will take a little longer than that for ATMs to get integrated into the mix.
Also, I'd really hate to think that my 330's company will go the way of the dinosaurs. If you haven't tried one, you're not aware of the ease of AutoCF and the nice virt. grafitti. Not saying mine is the best (please don't flame me), just that it certainly isn't below the sealine of what's hot. It's not sexy, but it's not dead, either.

...In accordance with the prophecy...

Quik_Fix
quikfix@hotmail.com

RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:07:55 PM #
Note first that this is NOT a flame, and that I am making NO COMPARISON to Sony, Palm, or any other device. This is just my personal opinion.

The Handera 330 has a great monochrome screen... However... after seeing it and feeling it at CompUSA yesterday, I think it feels extremely cheaply constructed and physically weak. (Nice jog rocker, though)

While I do not agree with much of that which Mr. Mike has said, I do agree that Handera is on its way out. I seriously doubt that any company putting a handheld that cheap on the market can survive.

-Palm Man

RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:50:31 PM #
How do you mean 'feels extremely cheaply constructed and physically weak'?

I don't agree with that statement, but I do think they could have made it a bit more attractive looking.

The 330 I have has a stronger and sturdier case than my PalmIIIx had and was MUCH better than the cheap plastics that were in my Visor 2mb.

I believe that HandEra does have some promise because they have lead some of the best innovations lately in the PalmOS, but they do need to get the ball rolling on new products. A new model every 18 months just isn't going to cut it, especially when Sony is releasing a new model every 2-3 months (granted there isn't much innovation in each new release).

I like supporting the 'little guy' because more often then not, its the little guy that has the best service. They don't have the rigid policies in place that can make larger companies 'customer unfriendly'. Although I have never had to deal with HandEra support, I've heard good things about the customer service so I am not worried.

J.R.D.
Sacramento, CA

RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 1:15:25 PM #
After using a Handera 330 for six months, I finally had to stop. They are basically a piece of crap. I have three Handeras in front of me right now and all three have some technical problem. One hard resets all the time. One has a soft graffiti area problem. They all have screen rewrite issues. I loved the CF and SD, but had to switch back to a 505, due to stability issues. I might even switch to the new iPaq 3870 that just arrived.

RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 1:47:24 PM #
LOL You do know that they have warranties...you don't have to buy a new one if something goes wrong. Not sure what a person needs with 4 or 5 different handhelds.

I'm just guessing, but i bet that handera would probably replace those with 3 working 330s if you asked. They should still be under warranty, unless you've tampered or abused them. I do have a few handhelds that are in my technology graveyard in the garage.

It seems with handhelds, no matter what company you go with there are people that are unlucky and have 3 or 4 bad units in a row. I had a PalmIIIx for several years without a problem (until I dropped it) and a coworker had 3 of them go bad in a matter of 4 months. I then got a visor 8mb and replaced it twice due to quality control issues before I moved on.

I guess its just the luck of the draw.

Aaron T.
NY, NY

RE: Hmmmmm...
GKreamer @ 12/28/2001 2:30:23 PM #
I agree, there will always be a few devices that ship with problems. However, I do not share the same rosy outlook regarding HandEra's customer service/support for software. I purchased FlashPro and have had extreme difficulties dealing with tech support to get upgrades, even after several e-mails. If you have to deal with anyone there, deal with Brock he has been the only one to respond favorably.

RE: Hmmmmm...
Quik_Fix @ 12/28/2001 5:51:53 PM #
I just wanted to mention that I don't think flashpro works at all on Handeras, if you have one. If not, just ignore me :-).

...In accordance with the prophecy...

Quik_Fix
quikfix@hotmail.com

RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 9:12:41 AM #
Also, I don't know about apple as well. When they made their #1 mp3 player for the imac (which cnet says is the beast ever). But then they states that they do not intend to work with palm or create a pda whatsooever. Do you think they might change their mind?
PDANature - http://pdan.has.it - Great hourly refreshed pda news, discussions, chat, reviews, commentarys, software, software update notices, features, and what not! Simply the best. http://pdan.has.it


RE: Hmmmmm...
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 3:14:35 PM #
The early Handera 330's had some problems. This was a manufacturing issue that seems to be resolved now. I had to replace my first HE330 because of this, but my current unit is running strong with no problems whatsoever.

This also explains why a demo unit at a store might seem cheaply constructed. One of the issues was an inferior grade of plastic to what Handera had specified (as I understand it).

As I said, current units should pose no problems and leave people very happy.

As far as product cycle, Handera seems only to release products that are revolutionary, rather than evolutionary upgrades like some vendors (*cough* Sony *cough*)

Can't wait for a color OS5 Handera. Don't count them out yet.

Just my $0.02 =)

RE: Hmmmmm...
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 4:10:50 PM #
I'd like to see HandEra stick around too. Not *all* my predictions are things I'd *like* to see happen. I think a 240x320 65K-color HandEra would be very intriguing!

RE: Hmmmmm...
sub_tex @ 12/29/2001 4:33:50 PM #
color handera would be a nince thing.

I still think they have the best idea for a screen (the 320x240). if they could make an OS5 device that had a color version of that screen, and change the form factor, they'd sell tons.
(not that i have anything against the Palm III look, i loved my IIIxe until my batteries blew up in it. but after using a s320 for months now, i'm sold on the slimmer design.)

Very Technical but not Professional

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 11:03:52 AM #
The "half-sized Memory Stick" is called Duo.

You prabably know that but the fact you didn't list it makes people *THINK* that you don't know it.

I'm not picking on your article, but since it gets a name, you should introduce that as well.


More detail about Duo is here:
http://www.memorystick.org/msinfo/eng/ms/duo.html



RE: Very Technical but not Professional
mikecane @ 12/28/2001 1:38:11 PM #
I had a block when it came to the name of the shortened MStick. Thanks for filling that in.

Ridiculous in <no.2>

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 11:08:40 AM #
Have you ever seen the actual iPod?

How would SONY (or any manufacturer) put that hard drive into a PDA? I mean in willingness, not discussing the diffculty.

It will be very weak in durability under the circumstance as how we use our PDA today!!


PDA is a PDA, not a "carrying computer" or "Mini Tablet PC", they're designed for different purpose, please do not try to move anything you see on other computer-related device to a "PDA" and make it gain size and weight, that wiould be terrible.

I hope the manufacturers do not think as the same way as you, otherwise we'll need a BIG carrying bag to carry our SUPER (HEAVY) PDA after 2002, which is not any Palm OS PDA user like to see!


RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 11:44:35 AM #
Gee, the rod up your butt has a rod up its butt. Chill man!

Some people prefer to have something comparable to their computer that can fit in the palm of their hand. Would you like to haul around a laptop to school? Or would an average student have the money for a Picturebook?

RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:23:42 PM #
If you want something comparable to a "PC" that fits in your "pocket", spend the extra $300 and get a Pocket PC. A Palm is specifically a peripheral, not a pocket sized PC.

RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:37:18 PM #
Spend some extra money on a car battery to feed the PPC...

RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 2:11:54 PM #
that is funny, PPC's get better battery life than the high end clie's OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
TechSport @ 12/28/2001 2:13:15 PM #
While this guy expresses his opinions rather forcefully, I don't think they're that far off really. I can't speak for others, but for me, with a PDA, size has always been one of the biggest considerations. I wan't something pocket sized (really) that weighs 4 ounces. I don't think that's a unique opinion, and I think there is a market for higher end devices like PPC and so forth. I believe they target different markets. I hope Palm and others don't forget that and try to turn all these devices into power houses with low battery life, and larger sizes and weights.

RE: Ridiculous in
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 3:06:49 PM #
And don't forget that the IBM MicroDrive is a NATURAL HARD DRIVE, hot a flash card; and right now you can use a HandEra 330 with 1Gb HDD. So why you are concerning about it to be happens a months later?

RE: Ridiculous in <no.2>
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:01:18 PM #
I have both a Clie 760 and an iPAQ. The Clie's battery life is FAR better. There's no comparison!

The Clie seems to run forever, even with the backlight on. The PPC runs out of juice very quickly, even with very light use.

RE: Ridiculous in
Smaug @ 12/28/2001 9:25:00 PM #
The new IPaq with a higher capacity closes the gap, but its still worse. My fear is moving to ARM processors will make palms have worse battery life. The more mhz the more power it seems :)

The Palm Conundrum:
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:43:53 PM #
Increase Processing Power (Multi-Tasking and overall Capabilities), Increase Memory, and Increase Display Quality - ALL BY HUGE FACTORS!

-while at the same time:

Keep prices low, Keep Ease of Use, Keep Efficient Battery Usage, Keep Slim Size/Weight, and Support all Legacy Apps.

NOT AN EASY TASK TO DO BOTH AT THE SAME TIME!

funny, but no

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:39:55 PM #
your predictions are interesting but your feet aren't on the ground. if you really believe palm can do all this in 1 year then please list the astounding ground breaking achievements they have made in the last 6 years that show this track record of success. i think by looking back at the slow evolution of trivial improvements will tell you that these predictions will takes 5-10 years not 1 year to pan out.

RE: funny, but no
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 12:54:12 PM #
Palm won't last 5-10 years if it takes them 5-10 years to do these things. I think they realize this based on recent acquisitions and their new CEO.

If Palm is going to flourish, these next 12 monthes are critical. If they let too much market share slip, they'll lose their foundation (developement base) that maintains them now.

Where is the new Palm CEO?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 1:48:27 PM #
Palm is in a time crunch, and they better get a vision and a leader REAL SOON. The should have had someone in mind and ready to go before they axed Yankowski! The longer they wait to fill this CEO role, the quicker they bring on their own demise. I blame Benhamou and the rest of the poor quality of Board of Directors for everything wrong at Palm. The buck stops at Benhamou.

RE: funny, but no
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 6:28:40 PM #
I do not think much of the innovation will come from Palm Inc. It will come from its licensees. Palm Inc just have to make sure provide a robust and stable PalmOS and licensees will make the rest. I personally do not think Palm Inc has the resources to innovate. I believe even the PalmOS receives a lot of innovative input from the licensees. So, the predictions may happen but just not by Palm Inc.

RE: funny, but no
Scott @ 12/31/2001 6:48:53 PM #
You guys act like MS or Palm's licensees incorporated the cure for cancer in their handhelds. Palm has said in the past (loud and clear) that they didn't want to add a feature which would compromise battery life, size, or weight, nor add features which "weren't ready for prime-time". Keep in mind, that when the first PalmPilot came out it ran on regular batteries and ran for a couple months (I forget exactly). Nowadays, a lot of people (but not everyone) are willing to recharge their handheld every night. Is there a market for these super-powered handhelds (even at the cost of size, weight, and battery life)? Sure. But, as I've said time and time again, geeks like us are the minority. Most people want an inexpensive, small, lightweight, handheld which can run for a week on a rechargable battery (or a few months on AA's).

Scott

I think it's going to be bigger than that

Davy @ 12/28/2001 1:05:28 PM #
Apple's testing the waters with the iPod right now, and they're realizing a big thing. People will buy Macintosh's if the coolest stuff only works with them. Making the 128x128 display, 5 gig harddrive, 32 megs internal memory, backlight.... ect. It's a small step to a larger goal. Apple's not going to go half-way on something like a PDA. Right now, the whole PDA market is in flux. It's Palm vs. Sony vs. Handspring vs. Microsoft. Apple could blow it all away by releasing a new newton, where it doesn't have to deal with liscensees, or whatever. Most people still have fond memories of the newton, and with modern technology to fix it's small quirks, it could be a killer pda. Go for it Apple!

RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:05:00 PM #
You're right. The Newton first shipped over 8 years ago (!!), and in several ways it was more advanced than any PDA today. The last-generation Newton, the 2000/2100, was a great device. If they'd shrunk the thing (physical size and price) and come out with a color version...

Why Can't Macintosh Succeed When Their Stuff Is So Cool?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:46:29 PM #
The Macintosh top-of-the-line laptop is so unbelievably cool with a 15" screen and only 1" thick. It's been out for a year or so and still no PC laptop has come close in design. I am so tempted to buy one except for the fact that I am scared to death of investing that much money in a Macintosh, when the rest of the world is using PCs. It's not that I like Windows; it's just the lingua franca.

Thanks, Robrecht

RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:55:31 PM #
Robrecht - Go get yourself one of the new DELL ultra-thin notebooks with WinXP on it. It blows away any crApple product.

RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 6:16:27 PM #
> It blows away any crApple product.

How old are you, about 12? Go away, the adults are talking now. We'll be amused by your tricks later. it's past your bedtime.

RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 8:30:44 PM #
RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
robrecht @ 12/29/2001 2:41:46 PM #
The DELL knock-offs of the SONY R505 do not really compare with the Macintosh. Some PC laptops have are about an inch thick, or even less, but not with a 15" screen and their keyboards are horrible experiences.

The best competitor, which is still only a concept, may be the Compaq Dual World convertible laptop, if they ever decide to manufacture it.

Check it out at http://makeashorterlink.com/?Z2921224


Thanks, Robrecht

RE: I think it's going to be bigger than that
I.M. Anonymous @ 1/1/2002 11:36:53 PM #
As a loyal Newton Messagepad 130 user, I'd love to see a new device using the Newton OS. It's a great OS.

Sorry but no.

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 1:24:13 PM #
I think the door is already closed for any meaningful comeback by Palm. Sony and Handspring will wind up the only people doing anything with Palm OS hardward by the middle of 03.

While I actually think Palm will try much of what you mentioned, I don't think much or any of it will work.

Palm will only appear to improve, as it won't be messing things up as badly as it has the last year and a half.

The established base of users is large now, only compared to the current base of PDA users, not to the market as it is already trending and will exist as in the next five years.

Palm would have to be expect to win a war with underpowered software, smushed into hardware skewed towards the Pocket PC standard. Microsoft seems to have done too much to partner with its hardware makers, and pre-empt any move towards business, and is only gaining in the consumer market.

RE: Sorry but yes.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 2:48:04 PM #
What do you mean a comeback from Palm? The last I checked, Palm was leading, alway has.

Remember where MS came from... A weedy DOS based Windows system that was technically inferior to all of the competition, but the one thing they did do right was to get it to the market just as demand required it and each step of the way they provided a path of backward compatibility.

RE: Sorry but no.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:07:24 PM #
Why would Sony _NOT_ buy Palm, Inc.?

RE: Sorry but no.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:08:08 PM #
Palm could be a great stock to own in 2002.

RE: Sorry but no.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:55:42 PM #
I wish Windows had better backward compatibility when it came to PowerPoint and Access! I wish intelligent backward compatibility were more important in the marketplace. If it were, we would all be using LS-120 floppy drives and wouldn't have to lug around heavy zip drives and zip disks!

RE: Sorry but no.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:57:14 PM #
Sony would not buy palm, because sony is doing very well all on their own. Palm is not as much aiming for multimedia features as of now in their pdas. This wont help sony.
PDANature - http://pdan.has.it - Great hourly refreshed pda news, discussions, chat, reviews, commentarys, software, software update notices, features, and what not! Simply the best. http://pdan.has.it



RE: Sorry but no.
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:40:16 PM #
I love how this guy has time to tout his website in every signature but doesn't have the courtesy to register here!

Outside posters

mikecane @ 12/28/2001 1:39:36 PM #
Too bad not everyone who has read this "editorial" (is that an upgrade from "opinion," Ed?) is commenting here.

http://www2.pdabuzz.com/Forums/showthread.php?threadid=30223

RE: Outside posters
Foo @ 12/28/2001 1:52:42 PM #
Hey, I post here! I just wanted to create a discussion on PDABuzz's message board as well. What more do you want from me?

RE: Outside posters
Foo @ 12/28/2001 2:02:27 PM #
You know what would really be funny? Have Ed make his official predictions for PocketPC in 2002. That should be a quick unbiased read..."PocketPC will be crushed by Palm in 2002. END OF STORY".


RE: Outside posters
mikecane @ 12/28/2001 2:19:48 PM #
Your screen name is different over there, Foo. Besides, even if it was the same, I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that it was you.

Hey, I cross-posted to your discussion! What more do you want from me?

RE: Outside posters
Foo @ 12/28/2001 2:25:50 PM #
Yeah, for some reason I get listed as "Foo" rather than the actual username. Oh well.

Great Editorial/opinion, Mike. I hope 2002 pans out that way...for all of us. Happy New Year!!!

RE: Outside posters
mikecane @ 12/28/2001 2:27:24 PM #
Now I see Ed has downgraded me to "Opinion." Oh, well.

RE: Outside posters
Ed @ 12/28/2001 2:28:06 PM #
> is that an upgrade from "opinion," Ed?

Hey, I never promised to be logical or even consistent. =+)

---
News Editor

RE: Outside posters
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:41:22 PM #
I think "Editorial" should be reserved for you and Ryan.

RE: Outside posters
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 4:14:35 PM #
Foo Fighter has a higher-level and calmer discussion going on at that other board than the one here. I am jealous, FF!

RE: Outside posters
Foo @ 12/30/2001 10:37:26 PM #
Thanks for the compliment, but I wouldn't exactly call it "calmer". Most of the PocketPC users are raking my stylus over the coals for my opinions. They didn't seem to like my predictions for PocketPC. Oh well. =)

RE: Outside posters
Foo @ 12/31/2001 6:28:14 PM #
Mike, I should also add that the reason my discussion seems "better" is because there aren't any anonymous posters lurking about. I really wish Ed would address this issue by making everyone register. Regardless, you still wrote a great article. Don't let the trolls discourage you.

RE: Outside posters
Scott @ 12/31/2001 6:53:28 PM #
I sent a private email to the PIC guys in the past and I'll mention it here publicly...I think one of the reasons that I personally participate more at PDABuzz is simply because I like the message board software better. I like to be able to jump back to the last post I've read and read just the new messages I hadn't seen yet. Here, because of the branching, it's tiresome. Still, I like being a part of a community which, even though I may not see eye to eye as far as where Palm, Inc. should go, at least agrees with me that the Palm OS platform is better day-to-day PDA than the PPC.

Scott

Consumer market

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 1:34:27 PM #
I love the idea of cheap Palms, but I wonder how much of a consumer market there really is for PDAs of any type.

Cell phones are an easy sell because everyone already uses a phone, and having one to carry around just makes sense to people. Adding simple features like text messaging to phones is also an easy sell, because people are used to pagers.

Most people I know don't have a PDA, and I am talking about white collar office workers in management positions. Cheap prices or more featurs aren't the answer. It's going to take a real marketing effort to educate the mass of consumers to the value of PDAs.

RE: Consumer market
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 3:30:09 PM #
Whatever...

RE: Consumer market
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 4:12:31 PM #
The poster above the above one does have a point. When Sony tried to sell the first tape recorder in Japan, they had a real education effort to make a go of it. Palm has the same effort to make (MS's slog with PPC is even harder, I think).

Don't forget the already fielded hardware

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 2:01:38 PM #
The majority of hand-helds that will exist in the year 2002 are already out there. Expecting the entire installed base to abandon them and spend yet another $400 is very ambitious. It will happen for those that are power-user types, but not for the people who received their PDAs as gifts or hand-me-downs.

The manufacturers of small mobile telephones made a shocking discovery in the spring of 2001. Joe and Mary six-pack are not going to want to replace their cellphones every six months. In fact, Joe and Mary get kind of upset when they realize they were the guinea pigs for developers that couldn't get it right the first time.

I am all for new hardware, and admit that I am likely to be one of those who convert quickly. Those new Sonys are looking very good compared to the M505 and the SD card just doesn't seem to be catching on.

However for the PDA business to become sustainable, they must realize that there is good money to be made on the existing user base. In fact it is this money that is necessary to pay all of the development dollars required to design the new ones.

For one player to emerge as a leader and earn brand loyalty they will have to find that balance of supporting their existing customers as well as providing them with aspirations of their next "insanely great" PDA.

It has to generate a profit or it is GAME OVER.

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:03:31 PM #
Very intelligent comment. Customer service will be important in the long run. ... I hope.

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:17:17 PM #
Good point. Another aspect of Sony's product release practices is that it affects pricing. Once a 'new' model is announced, this the stocks of the 'old' model must be discounted drastically (even though there is little difference between the two models). Eventually, prospective buyers will realise that, in order to get a great discount, all they have to do is put off purchasing for a couple of months. If this becomes widespread, Sony will be history.

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
popko @ 12/28/2001 9:31:20 PM #
Yeah, lets just hope someone from Sony actually reads this!

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 3:47:23 PM #
I would be a Clie owner today IF:

1.)They used industry standard memory expansion (CF, SD/MMC) instead of a proprietary memory stick.

2.) They would use a QVGA (also somewhat a standard when you factor in PPC's) instead of "pixel doubling" for their hi-res displays.

The Sony's color screens are beautiful. Too bad their obesession with proprietary hardware alienates me from buying their products.

Just my $0.02 =)

I wonder if they'll ever get over losing you as a customer..
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 2:05:51 AM #
I'm sure Sony cares deeply about you.

proprietary memory stick
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 8:29:37 AM #
It would be stupid for Sony to use anything but the Memory Stick. If I am/have been a loyal Sony customer and I have a bunch of devices - digital cameras, etc. that all use mmeory stick, of course I would want my Sony PDA to use memory stick. Also, If I am Sony, why would I want to screw those past customers? Also, if I was Sony, why would I give a crap about anyone elses format but my own? Sony has a good chance of memory stick becoming a/the standard. And if it does, they have a chnace at getting millions in future licensing revenues! Welcome to the free market, businesses aren't in business for charity - they exist to make money for shareholders - as much as possible.

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 8:04:53 PM #
How can QVGA be a standard when 90% of PDAs don't use it?

I think Sony did a superb job with 320 by 320.

RE: Don't forget the already fielded hardware
Scott @ 12/31/2001 6:57:47 PM #
This is one of the things I actually thought highly of with the Palm OS. It just plain worked. Software upgrades were minor, yet important, feature upgrades and bug fixes which usually didn't require someone to buy a new PDA to take advantage of and which didn't present the risk of new software developed around the new OS not running under an old version of the OS.

Contrast that with the PPC OS. They just came out with PPC 2002. From my opinion, it's a relatively minor upgrade. However, from what I've read as a developer, it's quite easy for someone to create an app for a PPC 2002 device which simply won't run on an older device. MS has a habit of doing this sort of thing in the desktop world as well, but at least there you can usually "make due" and upgrade the OS on older hardware. Here you're stuck. I just don't see people buying into this once they discover this trend.

Scott

Palm -> PPC

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 2:14:14 PM #
Microsoft is usually the one who "grabs" ideas from other companies, right? I think MS is right on track with the PPC's, and Palm is behind. Ok, Palm decides to dump Grafitti, and go for Caligrapher. MS already did that AND added Block Recognizer (for Palm transfers). PPC's ALLREADY have ARM processors out. Sony is the leader for the Palm OS, and NO doubt are they going to start turning into a REAL multimedia machine. USB wont get replaced by Firewire. Too many home PC's have USB for it just to end up in the trash, so most likely it will be USB AND iLink. And, MS wont put IE on Palm's because of... Resolution! Maybe for the Clie, (or Handera), but that would be it. Handspring went the wrong way using a propritery slot. it was big, cumbersome, and only Handspring used it.

Microsoft got the whole PPC thing actually right for once, and Palm is lagging behind. If they can get ALL of those things done in 2002, I will have great respect for them. But, real life says... "it aint gonna happen"

That was a real cute article, but half of it wont happen. Palm is going through so much s@%# right now, they wont be able to pull themselves together.

RE: Palm -> PPC
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:52:43 PM #
" Microsoft is usually the one who "grabs" ideas from other companies, right? "

YEAH - I heard MSFT stole Graffiti from XEROX.

RE: Palm -> PPC
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:11:24 PM #
The reason why PPC machines use ARM processors is that that WinCE is so bloated that it runs like molasses on any lesser processor. The ARM processor gives PPC a reasonably responsive user interface, but at the cost of very short battery life. It is senseless to try to compare PPC processors/speed with Palm.

RE: Palm -> PPC
popko @ 12/28/2001 9:33:41 PM #
"WinCE is so bloated that it runs like molasses on any lesser processor"

The way I see it, eveything's got be blanced. What do I mean by that?

Someone else on this board already said that MS tends to keep good complibility with it's OS and I guess this goes for PPCs as well. From a Windows programer's point of view, wirtting code for PPC much the same as writting code for Windows. So by next year when Intel's Xscle based PPCs are going at 400Mhz, PPCs can actually replace some laptops by having the ability to run some desktop apps.

So having a complex OS may not be that bad in this case. On the other hand, when Palm puts all the multimedia and connectivity stuff that PPC have into the new OS, Palm will grow in size and will need lots more house power to run.

RE: Palm -> PPC
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 12:03:33 AM #
I agree popko, all the way. However, I notice that while running simple PIM apps, it goes VERY fast. It can definitely run on a smaller processor. The fast processor is for multi-tasking: listen tp mp3's, while editing a Word document and viewing your calender. The fast processor is to render 3-d graphics. So, the processor doesn't need to be 206 MHz just to run the PIM apps like a Palm, so, you may actually want to use both hardware before comparing...

10 Dragonballs = 1 ARM?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 8:38:57 AM #
I got an idea for Palm! If the ARM isn't ready in time, they should just squeeze in 10 or 20 Dragonball EZ's into their next device - that outta do it!!!

RE: Palm -> PPC
Scott @ 12/31/2001 7:03:20 PM #
I've used both and I can tell you that the Palm OS and it's slow little processor is quicker at PIM.

Scott

Why not a built in TV tuner?

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 3:31:38 PM #
All it's very intersting, but I think that also a TV tuner for Palm is in the air...

Star Trekkers of the world, unite!
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:06:54 PM #
Absolutely, a very cool idea!

Hey, what is the difference between Trekkies and Trekkers, anyway?

RE: Why not a built in TV tuner?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 11:41:35 AM #
one reason:

SIZE. Palm's would turn into Laptops (size wise).

RE: Why not a built in TV tuner?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 12:10:18 PM #
Captain Janeway, in Armegeddon Versus the Borg, used a very small TV-type Palm device and it was very small and very cool!

RE: Why not a built in TV tuner?
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:42:34 PM #
Have any of you used a pocketable TV?! Getting good reception is a b*tch! (Especially now in NYC since the WTC was destroyed -- that's where the TV transmitters were located!)

RE: Why not a built in TV tuner?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 6:22:07 AM #
The best is a MMC/SD TV tuner. But we are only in 2002...

RE: Why not a built in TV tuner?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 7:32:44 AM #
i thought that handspring would have had one come out already...i think i would grab one of those if they did, the only other attachment i use is the memory card and the camera.

#12

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 3:34:40 PM #
Ed, you left off one:

#12. Carl Yankowski, intent on proving that "simple is better," signs a multi-million dollar deal to be CEO of PaperPalm, Inc.
http://www.brighthand.com/palmhandhelds/reviews/devices/paperpalm.html. However, that venture runs into trouble when consumers realize the device's multimedia limitations (largely limited to the animation of stick figures). The company also becomes mired in litigation with the Cross and FaberCastell companies over PalmPalm's apparent patent infringement by its incorporation of a carbon-based No. 2 input device. Furthermore, developers in the company are unable to perfect the syncronization software. Yankowski resigns in a flurry of criticism, as the company spins off a Big Chief Tablet division.

JBH

RE: #12
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:43:37 PM #
Ed didn't write that piece.

RE: #12
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 11:31:49 PM #
You wrote it. Ed posted it. Sue me.

JBH

RE: #12
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 1:19:03 PM #
My attorney is standing by. Hah!

RE: #12
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 10:04:51 AM #
I am an attorney! Ha Ha!

JBH

Gee Mike

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 4:20:16 PM #
Handspring will be here for a long time. Eventualy The Treo will have a sled like the EDGE.
By the way I thought you went to the Dark Side and embraced Microsofts PC's
bye

RE: Gee Mike
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:10:00 PM #
Who is this Mike Cane guy, anyway, and why do some people hate him so much?

RE: Gee Mike
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 5:23:33 PM #
On the Web, if you express any opinion about anything, someone will hate you for it. Doesn't matter who you are. Sad, very sad. This isn't the way its supposed to be.

RE: Gee Mike
Edward @ 12/28/2001 8:04:28 PM #
Mike, like all of us who have been in the Palm community for some time, is of course universally hated.

:)

But I like him. Does anyone like me?

RE: Gee Mike
popko @ 12/28/2001 9:43:30 PM #
Ok if this makes you feel any better:

"I think Edward is a good guy"

:)

RE: Gee Mike
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:53:47 PM #
Wow, my feelings are really hurt by being disliekd by cowards or idiots who won't or can't register. I am remembered because I use my real name and it is simple to recall. Who can remember some of the damned screen names people come up with? And who cares to know who some anonymous moron is?

RE: Gee Mike
robrecht @ 12/29/2001 4:28:35 PM #
Whoever he is, I wish he were more polite, although so many mostly anonymous posters on this site are so much more rude and immature. It get's tiresome after a while.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: Gee Mike
popko @ 12/30/2001 12:47:32 AM #
Robrecht is right. This Mike Cane guy is kinda rude this time around. Lets get real, this is the internet! There are 10 million Mike Canes out there and how in hell do I know that you are not Joe Somebody using Mike Cane's name?

RE: Gee Mike
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 2:22:07 AM #
Actually, the main reason anyone remembers Cane's name is because he posts incessantly to every Palm-related site on the Internet. He appears to be in either the manic or hypomanic stage of untreated bipolar disorder.

To post 100 or more messages a day and spend several hours daily pouring over these site is pathological. If you feel he is rude, think of his posting as a cry for help from a sick individual. Cane deserves our pity - his actions are due more to mental illness than they are to a personality disorder.

RE: Gee Mike
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 1:19:41 PM #
100 msgs a day?! Your life must be very empty that you can only recall the places you *do* see me and not the billions of places I am *not*. That is the definition of a stalker. Looks like you have the true disorder.

Mike "Virtual Graffiti" Cane!

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 6:32:44 PM #
I can't believe you didn't mention Virtual Graffiti in your predictions!!!

RE: Mike
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:44:14 PM #
No, I left out things like speculating on resolutions of screens, color depths, and that sort of thing. Besides, I knew *you'd* remember Virtual Graffiti.

Call Psychic Friends Network

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 8:47:12 PM #
I'm sorry, but you must have been bored today waiting for end of year press announcements. Any Palm'erati could have said this but franky, I don't see half of this comming true. Never understimate the amount of effort to get out a new product.

The biggest boner in your list is Springboard being dropped. The only reason why the Trio has no Springboard slot is that the cell phone network carriers have publically stated that they do not allow open buses on their network. Springboard is alive and well with the release of the Pro and Neo. How do you want your crow cooked?

RE: Call Psychic Friends Network
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:00:09 PM #
Didn't Handspring already state they were phasing out the Springboard?



Why no allow open buses on their network?
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 9:40:52 PM #
What are the carriers afraid of? What's the difference between the Minstrel modem and m505 with open SD slot vs. Springboard Cell device?

Rumours of the Springboards Demise are greatly exaggerated
TDS @ 12/28/2001 9:58:14 PM #
Where did you hear that the Springboard is being discontinued? I don't think it is. Handspring has stated many times that they are SPLITTING their product lines. The are making PDA's and now the Cell phone/PDA combos. Different markets are being targetted. Just because Sony makes a VCR or television without a Memory Stick slot does not mean that it is being discontinued.
The Springboard slot is a fantastic idea. It offers expansion possibilities that now other handheld can touch. The springboard idea may evolve over time, but I doubt it will be killed off.

Doug

RE: Call Psychic Friends Network
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 3:41:31 PM #
When Mike mentions that springboard peripheral sales have been disappointing, is he referring to some report or something? I'd sure be interested in seing that report if there is one. Some springboards have been flops, like the paraphone for instance. Why would anyone by that? It doesn't even support data transfers. On the other hand, the memplug line of springboards I would suspect have been very successful. Through this product line, Visors can support 3 different external memory types (soon to be 4 when the SD memplug comes out).

RE: Call Psychic Friends Network
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 1:05:37 AM #
Here is the FACTS:

Springboard modules are here to stay.
Repeat after me: Expansion Expansion Expansion
Any questions, think Apple II....Mac....newest Macs and why the PC really succeeded....

Resolution is a very important upgrade.

Hard disks, etc. are WRONG...Why???? These are PDAs, not PCs, laptops, or Sun workstations. Palm, Handspring, etc. must keep this in mind. It is very important. All my Palm user friends and I agree the purpose of the PDA is low power, fast access to recurring useful information, not a replacement for a laptop or desktop.

Lastly, my PDA can do things that a Pentium 4 PC can never ever accomplish....and vice versa....they each have their place.

Mike Wikinson

I thought a lot about your points and.....

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/28/2001 11:59:29 PM #
Well, ummmm.....No.

Sony/Mac Booster

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 12:48:02 AM #
So much for the prediction. This article only proves that Mike Cane is a Sony and Apple booster with a wild imagination.

I think Palm will go out of business.

TrueGrit @ 12/29/2001 5:50:24 AM #
Palm is a horrible company and has little business sense. Yankowski was an idiot! I hope PALM does go out of business and the fine folks and Handspring keep on trucking.

I think Sony will continue to amaze us, by making the current products better. What always amazes me is how foreign companies keep making our stuff better? Why is that do they care more about our needs any wants then the American companies? I certainly hope not but I tend to believe that is the case...

RE: I think Palm will go out of business.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 8:45:18 AM #
Well the Japanese love their tecbnology and they get easily nored of stuff. This is why tech stuff always take off in Japan long before they catch on here. Wireless, PDA and I-Mode is all the craze in Japan. Can't say the same for the U.S and defintely can't say the same for Canada.

RE: I think Palm will go out of business.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 9:35:34 AM #
How can Handspring continue? It's never been profitable. The technology it uses violates a Xerox patent, or so says one judge. Its last offering (Edge) was a flop, and its newest product (Treo) is late to market.

I'm sorry, but I give Handspring less time than Palm.

JBH

RE: I think Palm will go out of business.
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 5:15:51 AM #
'I hope PALM does go out of business and the fine folks and Handspring keep on trucking.'
You're not the only one, but some people have predicted/hoped for palm to go out of business and handspring/sony to lead. Where exactly does the OS come from for their 'palmOS' handhelds?

Microsoft Reader???

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 6:41:09 AM #
What's the relevance of Microsoft Reader? Is there much interesting content in it? In my experience, it runs abysmally slowly even on fast CE machines; if this "marvel" of Microsoft software enginering gets ported to Palm, Microsoft will have to do a lot better.

Mike Cane

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 6:51:51 AM #
Mike if you know as much as you do then why would you talk about caligrapher when the best is JOT by CICI??

RE: Mike Cane
mikecane @ 12/29/2001 12:45:38 PM #
Wrong! Calligrapher is the best damned HWR there is for handhelds.

Handspring & Springboard modules

I.M. Anonymous @ 12/29/2001 10:04:50 AM #
I hope this prediction is wrong. <grin>

"Super CLIE"

mikecane @ 12/29/2001 1:00:09 PM #
As for a hard drive (HD) in a PalmOS PDA -- some people are obviously missing the point.

There are several HD-based MP3 players right now. The iPod is unique in that it reads a song -- sometimes several -- off the HD, puts it (them) in RAM, shuts off the HD, and plays from RAM. It has a ten-hour battery life -- damned good for an HD-based player; and even better than *all* PPCs used to play MP3 from solid-state cards!

Now note that *multimedia* is usually *not* mission-critical stuff for most of us. It is generally Fun Stuff -- and backup copies (as the original source) exist on our Macs & PCs.

In much the same way, the HD of an "HD-ed CLIE" would be used to store multimedia and data that is archival in nature (ie, ebooks, photos). Just because my predicted "Super CLIE" has an HD does not mean there won't be an MStick slot for dynamic data (Date Book, et al). The HD would work like the iPod -- spin, dump, shut off. And since the data is read-only, no need to wake the HD for Saves.

As for playing full-length movies on this predicted "Super CLIE," I leave that to the Wizards of Sony to work out (ie, RAM-buffering ala iPod to save power).

As for form factor, I believe Sony could do it in the existing N-series size. The iPod's dimensions as an MP3 player should not be confused with a PDA's dimensions. And I leave it up to the completists here to cite cubic inches of the iPod vs N6/7xx. I think they'll show a strong similarity.

Here are the raw dimensions --

iPod
4.02" x 2.43" x 0.78" - 6.5 oz

Sony N-series CLIE
4 3/4" x 2 7/8" x 11/16" - 5.65 oz

(Being math-impaired, I won't even try to decimalize fractions! Or fractionalize decimals.)


RE:
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 2:13:31 AM #
Are you crazy? I read this on AvantGo last night so I couldn't post until now, but really. These are some whacked-out predictions. HD Clie? No way jose. The real prediction for next year is what you will think when very little of these will accually happen. This is WAY beyond the overactive imagination stages. This is obsession with Palm os. Stop dreaming and write letters. That's the only way the companies will really listen,buster.

RE:
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 1:21:28 PM #
You couldn't post until now?! And at that you couldn't bother to register to stand by *your* words?

RE:
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/30/2001 8:13:42 PM #
IBM says they are going to release a 5 gig microdrive by years end (2003) the size of the current model.

Clip that onto the back of a T600C and add battery space to the bottom half on back and there you have it. An Ipod killer, with PDA included, for $500.

Palm on the Ropes
I.M. Anonymous @ 12/31/2001 12:33:18 AM #

Another Prediction true!

mikecane @ 4/17/2003 10:02:24 AM #
10) [...] HandEra will get lost in the shuffle.

http://www.handera.com/press/palmos.asp

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

HANDERA ISSUES EOL NOTICE FOR HANDERA 330 AND TRGPRO PRODUCTS

DES MOINES, Iowa April 16, 2003 HandEra today issued an End Of Life (EOL) notice for both of its Palm OS based handheld products, the TRGpro and HandEra 330. Due to cost increases associated with licensing the OS, HandEra will no longer be able to ship products containing the Palm OS after May 31st.

"We regret the impact that this announcement will have on our customers," said Mark Kubovich, President of HandEra. "HandEra will offer new products to serve the OEM mobile computing market in the near future."

Limited stock of the HandEra 330 is available to fulfill last time buy orders. Last time buy orders will be considered on a case by case basis.

About HandEra
HandEra, Inc. is a leading provider of software, electrical, and mechanical engineering services for a broad range of industries including mobile computing, industrial controls and consumer products.

Founded in 1992, the company previously operated under the name TRG Products, Inc. HandEra is a privately held company based in Des Moines, Iowa.

###

HandEra and HandEra 330 are registered trademarks of HandEra, Inc. Palm OS is a registered trademark and Palm Powered is a trademark of Palm, Inc. or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.


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