Comments on: Growth in Handheld Sales Remains Steady

Worldwide sales of handhelds are expected to increase 18% this year, according to a study by Gartner Dataquest. This is approximately the same rate of growth seen last year. While many market segments would be thrilled by two years of almost 20% growth, in 2000 handheld sales increased 114%.

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PalmOs 5 sufficiently un-enhanced functionality

Alan @ 4/3/2002 2:59:40 PM #

"Many of the more than 14 million current Palm OS users may be enticed to upgrade to new devices
following the launch of Palm OS 5 if the launch is well executed and the new OS and associated
devices deliver sufficiently enhanced functionality."

Hmmm... "sufficiently enhanced functionality" ... At which point the bosses of Palm Inc should
reply by quoting Homer Simpson.... DOHWPP!!.

I hope PalmOs5 does well, but I wish we were getting PalmOs6 now, and not having to wait 18 months?
or however more time it is to wait?.

Oh well, I guess there's Sony Clie machines to look forward to increasing their sales. :)

(And I think its great news that "three-fourths of all PDAs purchased worldwide in 2001 were sold
to individuals" :)

Still, any increase in PDA numbers is good news. :)

RE: PalmOs 5 sufficiently un-enhanced functionality

Ed @ 4/3/2002 3:35:06 PM #

When I interviewed Mike Mace a couple of months ago, he said PalmSource intended to have OS 6 (or whatever it gets called) out six to nine months after OS 5. He specifically said, "It's not going to be 18 months between releases."

If you haven't read the full interview, take a look at it here:
www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=2966

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News Editor

RE: PalmOs 5 sufficiently un-enhanced functionality

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/3/2002 3:49:29 PM #

Guess and speculation:

Let's just say June release of OS5.0 sticks, give it another 6 months, that would be January at most optimistic time table. We are definitely not going to see OS 6.0 before christmas 2002. It will be 1stQ 2003 at the earliest.

OS 5.0 devices, assuming final release is June, give it another 4-5 months for Sony to come up with a machine and distribute it. That means early November.

Now if Palm is doing OS5.0 machine, we should rah-rah around August. mock up, hype, advertisement leak, manufacturing info. In fact we should see early prototype around June, if not than we son't see them for Christmas.

Strangely, 2 more months from major OS release, and we don't hear a pep except some meager marketing info on Palm Inc. website. And they say the OS5.0 is targetted toward enterprise. Do they think enterprise purchasing decission happens over night? What's the big secret? So we definitely have time table problem here.

Guessing what will happen to current models.

-Sony NRV actually match the 6-9 months shelf life. (intro may - dead by November with introduction of OS50 devices)

-Treo, just limping along, competing with Samsung until unified telephone API is introduced in OS6.0. (Treo is pretty much dead if Microsoft subsidise any smarphone massively) That's why they hope to capture as much customer and lock it in 1 yr plan before June introduction of Microsoft product.

-Between now ntil November Microsoft has free reign on $400-650 models. Palm better think deep discount to keep market share.

RE: PalmOs 5 sufficiently un-enhanced functionality

Ed @ 4/3/2002 5:40:56 PM #

> Now if Palm is doing OS5.0 machine, we should rah-rah around August. mock up,
> hype, advertisement leak, manufacturing info.

Palm has committed to having an OS 5 device shipping before Fall. In fact, it and HandEra are the only Palm OS licensees who have officially said they would release an OS 5 handheld at all. Sony almost certainly will but it hasn't actually said anything about it.

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News Editor

Gartner

peter167 @ 4/3/2002 3:23:35 PM #

Tell us the market share of Palm's handhelds in the 1st quarter, if you dare.

******************
Lie is the future.

How dompare to NPD number

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/3/2002 3:48:39 PM #

Hey Ed,
How do these numbers compare to the NPD numbers that came out back in Feb? Does any of this make any sense?

RE: How compare to NPD number

Ed @ 4/3/2002 5:13:53 PM #

You may be confused simply because every study of handheld sales uses different criteria. The NPD Techworld numbers you refer to in February cover U.S. retail sales in 2001.

This study from Gartner covers worldwide sales and doesn't really try to break them down by manufacturer. The prediction covers all handhelds (or PDAs; the report uses the two almost interchangeably), whether Palm OS, Pocket PC, or another.

Because they cover such different areas, basically no cross-checking can be done.

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News Editor

Gartner gone soft?

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 3:04:12 AM #

I find it odd that the gnomes at Gartner have not broken down sales between PPC and Palm OS. They usually do don't they? Usually quoting huge leaps in value of PPC sales and so on.

I wonder if this is an end to their pro Microsoft spin or perhaps there was no good news from PPC and they have decided to fudge things a bit?

Regards
Nick

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Let sleeping trolls lie