Comments on: Worldwide Handheld Sales Dropped in the Past Year

My PVx is has been on it's last legs for months now, and I'm determained to wait for a 5.0 machine. Watch out Palm/Sony/etc. I can wait longer then you, and if my Vx dies I might just learn that I _can_ get along with out a PDA!

-Mike

I do not claim to know the world, but amongst the folks in my circle of friends. There has been so many rumors and pictures of future devices, who would buy now? Or for that fact, other than one of the dozen new versions of the Clie out this year, why not wait for these 'super' palm units. Phone Palms with MP3 players, new OSs, etc... personally, I jumped on the NR70V unit not being able to wait after my 505 died a wet death.
Anyone else notice that when someone developes a 'newish' technology on the Palm OS devices, they are the ones that get to roll it out first. External memory and Handspring, virtural graffitti and (what was that companies name? TRG? Sorry folks.), 320 x 320 and Sony. Now, the new OS, while other Palm OS device makers may have it, they may not be able to release a unit using it till Palm themselves does.
Just my thoughts, thanks for yours.

I'm also holding back upgrading my m505 until I see a couple OS 5 models.

> I think palm should move its headquaters to the "Plam Graveyard" located
> on this site.....

Did you read the article and notice that Palm sold more three times as many PDAs as Sony did? Sony's policy of offering frequent new models has helped them get a foothold but they are far from being dominant.

> "I agree that there should be a jump in sales as soon as OS 5 models hit the selves."

Has Palm given any indication as to when they (or Sony) plan to release the new hardware?

Nobody seems anxious to be the first out the door with one, probably for fear of killing their pricing structure witht the OS4 units still piled high on shelves. I would have thought someone would have pulled out an OS5 PDA by now.

Not like HandEra would have tons of stock on the shelves (no retail shelves to speak of), would be nice if they'd capitalize on more of their opportunities, and get something out the door.

> Now, the new OS, while other Palm OS device makers may have it, they
> may not be able to release a unit using it till Palm themselves does.

Other companies may be holding off for compatibilty reasons. I certainly would not want to be the first company on the block with an OS 5 device only to have Palm come out with one next week. Since Palm is likely to sell 10 times as many of whatever they come out with, if I were another company, I'd want to make sure my OS 5 devices were at a minimum completely compatible with Palm's offerings.

If Palm dies, so does the OS. That would leave Sony with 0% of the PDA market.

If Palm "dies" that would mean bankruptcy. Simply put, they would have no more money to continue operations. That day may come, and when it does, the company will be broken up into little pieces and sold off. Someone will buy the rights to the OS and that money will go to the people standing in line (Bond holders first, then Stockholders). Usually, there is no money left over for the Stockholders, so they get screwed. They'll sell the office equipment, old inventory, accounts receivable, any real estate, intellectual propert (the OS) etc etc. Maybe Sony would buy the OS in such an event? I think this would be a blessing for Sony because they could buy the OS for peanuts and license it rather than pay license fees. Yes the license fees are cheap now but what might they be in the future?

Good points, Foo.

>"IT departments would never allow Sony into their computing environment"

Why do you think this is? Why are they any more afraid of Sony as opposed to Palm or MSFT???

> "Why do you think this is? Why are they any more afraid of Sony as opposed to Palm or MSFT???"

For starters, Sony is synonymous with "proprietary". They tend to force their own intellectual properties over open standards...Memory Sticks being one good example. That's not going to fly. Enterprise want STANDARDS. Secure Digital, Compact Flash and so on. Consumers are more willing to adopt proprietary technologies as part of an integrated package.

Second, Sony is a consumer electronics company, not a platform provider...certainly not where IT is concerned. Sony has ZERO mind-share in corporate America when it comes to computing technology...with the exception of computer monitors and such.

So if Sony does acquire the OS, it would almost certainly keep the platform out of the enterprise. Unless it goes Open-source...at which point ANY developer is free to customize and configure it to their needs, without licensing fees. But then of course you run the risk of platform fragmentation and incompatibilities.

That's the funniest response I've seen all day!

I agree with just about everything you said. Very true about Palm and Handspring slip-ups. Although I do think PPC has been but a blip on the radar for awhile now, these figures dont say everything. Remember, they are totally different markets, only now with Toshiba offering quality cheap PPC's will the market have a chance to grow. Heck, I almost bought the entry 'e' model but chose the m515 instead due to the OS of course, and it's gorgeous form.

Hopefully handheld sales will pick up on both sides, competition is good. Without the PPC 'power' I dont think Palm users would be hollaring for new MM features on their PDAs, but that is just my guess.

haven't been paying attention, eh? forget about Acer, did you? They're based in China, and making Chinese only versions of their device. PalmOS is well handled in China, methinks.

Guys, we aren't having a discussion on China policy or whether the U.S. should recognize Taiwan as a soverign nation. It is off-topic for a handheld site. Go discuss it on a world news site or go to the Off Topic section in our forums:
www.palminfocenter.com/forum/active.asp

Discussing how Palm OS handhelds will fare in the China market, or whether Acer will be a success there, is.

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News Editor

We know for certain Palm hasn't written off China. In early August, Todd Bradley, head of Palm's hardware division and soon to head of the whole company, said that he planed to grow Palm by increasing sales in new markets, instead of mainly concentrating on the U.S. market, where it is already the dominant player. Bradley specifically listed China as one of the markets his company would be working to increase sales in.

I think the Palm OS will have a significant advantage over the Pocket PC in this market because the lower hardware requirements mean Palm handhelds can be less expensive.

However, I don't think the rumored Zire would be successful there because of the difficulties in reading Chinese characters on a 160 by 160 screen. Perhaps a low-end model with a hi-res screen, not unlike the Sony SL10, would be successful there.

Actually, it surprises me we don't hear more about Sony making a big play for China. It has a geographical advantage and the Chinese and Japanese written languages are similar, which should give Sony a special insight into the needs of a Chinese handheld. Have I simply missed Sony's efforts to increase sales in China or is Sony overlooking this market?

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News Editor

Does anyone engage their brain before posting here?

"The Chinese can't afford a handheld." Yeah, right. That's why Hi-Tech can be the fifth largest handheld manufacturer by only selling in China.

"1/20th of the US market." Fine. Say that your guess is accurate: currently China has 1/20th of the US market. Currently China has five times the population of the US. Currently the US market is flatlining. Currently the handheld manufacturers are clawing and scratching to try to gain another 1% of the US market. Currently the China market has a whole lot of room for EXPANSION.

You obviously don't get the point of the original poster. But don't worry, it is "visionaries" like you who create multi-million dollar companies (stated with extreme sarcasm).

I'd say 1/20 of the Mainland China's population could afford a PDA, but China's market is certainly not 1/20 of the US market. I guess you are stucked in the US of the A for so long and listened to Bush's speech for so many times that you just quite simply became dumber.

The grey market you talkign about is probably direct import goods, most people buy those because for some reason it's cheaper, but the problem is you lose warranty.

I am sure Neanderthal and Dinosours think the exact same thing about extinction. (I mean look at us, we rule the planet, look at the number, what's that new fangle warm blooded metabolism? Did you say cranial capacity? puh... Who need HWR when you got grafitti, what's that big CPU that eat up battery? they are only good for game, no serious user will buy them)

Poor grammar and run-on sentances are no way to make your point. Oh yes, having a point is up there too.

HWR is a difficult piece of technology, and just like any complex software it will have to evolve. It has to start somewhere. Gesture typing and thumb keyboard are not a permanent solution for natural hand writing input. If a platform does not start to develop true HWR it will be an impediment in the near future.

best fit and adaptable win the evolutionary game, not light and simple.

Has anyone ever even heard of eTForecasts? Probably some guy who got laid off and started his own consulting business who is looking for some free advertising by putting out a controversial "analysis", knowing that he won't be called on the carpet if (when) he is proved wrong.

Don't forget, people still listen to Gartner and IDC despite both of them predicting in the late 90s that Pocket PC would have the majority of the handheld market by 2001.

You've all heard the old aphorism, "No one ever got fired for buying Microsoft'. I'd like to add a new version: "No analyst ever got fired for predicting Microsoft would dominate any market it wanted to", even though these have frequently turned out to be wrong. Wrong about Palm and I'm sure the predictions about the XBox will be incorrect, too.

Not a bad analysis but he made a few mistakes. The main one was writing off Handspring based on these numbers. This is only for organizers, not smartphones and Handspring is getting out of the organizer business. Its analogous to saying 3M is going out of business because it doesn't sell much mining equipment any more.

Also, year-over-year growth is much more significant that quarter-over-quarter. It gives you a far better perspective on what the market is really doing. Ed Hansberry ought to know that. I think he's guilty of letting his pro-PPC feelings sway his judgement. He wants to present the numbers that make the PPC look the best, whether they are significant or not. I think the fact that Compaq's sales figures dropped 32% really scared him and he had to find a way to make that look better.

> Amazing how people grab that 5% increase and cheer isn't it?

Could you look back over this article and all the comments underneath it and show me a single example of someone crowing or even referring to this? Did you even read the article before posting your criticism?

"In the United States, Palm's market share has climbed five percentage points since the start of the year, said Mace," - http://makeashorterlink.com/?O2CB416C1

It was based on the same IDC numbers. Now that I look at it, Palm as not climbed 5% since the start of this year. It is a 5% increase in share since last year. They are down in share and volumes since the first quarter. Either Mace got his figures mixed up or he was misquoted. In either case, 5% is nothing to be happy about.