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Comments on: Palm OS Market Share Rises in Second Half of '02

PalmSource today announced that Palm Powered handhelds and smartphones strengthened their position in the retail market during the second half of 2002, according to sales figures just released in the United States and Europe. Palm OS devices continue to lead in U.S. retail, enterprise, and smartphones, and are gaining share in the European market, according to industry analysts.
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Other side of the coin

Fammy @ 1/27/2003 1:30:51 PM #
Although I am sure Palm made market share of the last year (or half year), just wait for the corresponding statement from Microsoft. It'll tell of how great the PPC is and how far it came the last year (including increased market share).

Every company has some sort of line like this. Every company can spin numbers to make them look good.

Go Palm!

_____
Fammy

RE: Other side of the coin
hoodoo @ 1/27/2003 3:06:16 PM #
I'm sure ska will come up with something...lol

RE: Other side of the coin
Sleuth255 @ 1/29/2003 9:26:46 AM #
Ahhh... nice to [b][i]finally[/i][/b] see a thread that's refreshingly ska-free!

The truth hurts I guess...

RE: Other side of the coin
TobyG @ 1/29/2003 9:47:00 AM #
Sleuth, I suspect it's more a case of his account being deleted/banned and his signing up with a new ID. There are some marked similarities betwixt him and another 'contributor' to this thread. ;)

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown

Way to go Palm OS!!!

plaid @ 1/27/2003 1:32:59 PM #
:)

RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
Trilobyte @ 1/27/2003 7:29:22 PM #
The above article is verbatim print of Palmsource press release.
http://www.palmsource.com/press/2003/012703.html

Related article:
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-982286.html?tag=fd_top

Market share leader Palm saw shipments decline 12.2 percent in 2002 to about 4.4 million units from about 5.1 million units in 2001, according to Dataquest. Hewlett-Packard, which holds the No. 2 market share spot and is the market share leader for devices using Microsoft's OS, saw worldwide shipments drop by 27.2 percent to 1.6 million units from 2.2 million units.

The Palm operating system still dominates the handheld market with 55.2 percent or 6.7 million units shipped using the Palm OS. About 25.7 percent of handhelds shipped, or 3.1 million units, used Microsoft's Windows CE OS.

Kort said that the Zire made up about a third of Palm's shipments in the fourth quarter and helped the company maintain its unit market share, but brought down Palm's average selling price for devices.

--------
Basically, HP tank last year because of the merger, Zire rule, Dell will chew up Q1.

RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
hotpaw4 @ 1/27/2003 7:46:05 PM #
someone wrote:
> Dell will chew up Q1 ...

Only if they can actually sell AND ship product. Wasn't there a CNET article about Dell quoting some very delayed shipment dates?

RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
Trilobyte @ 1/27/2003 8:32:35 PM #
Dell dump about 51K devices in the last 3 weeks of of '02. And they say they plan to sell 1-1.8M of those Axim this year. Very ambitious number.

HP Q3-Q4 performance, as oppose to year to year performance cited in C|NET, they seems to be recovering. 292,850 to 438,069.
http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2003/030127d.html

RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
Foo Fighter @ 1/27/2003 9:49:31 PM #
51k units is quite impressive performance for just the first month of sales. We'll see if Dell gains more momentum.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs
RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
Trilobyte @ 1/27/2003 10:06:13 PM #
I wonder what is T|T's number, nobody seems to have that number.
RE: Way to go Palm OS!!!
xolstis @ 1/28/2003 5:42:31 PM #
Think dell will very likely be able to meet the demand. Thay have probably one of the best manufacturing and distribution setups in the computing world. And the sales figures for the last 3 weeks of 2002 are pretty impressive. Had a friend working in Dell sales (Asia Pacific) and even before the AXIM was released he said he had at least one call per day enquiring about the AXIM, its release dates etc etc,

xolstis

Market share?

Foo Fighter @ 1/27/2003 2:16:27 PM #
No break down in market share by company given? Has this data been released?

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs
RE: Market share?
Admin @ 1/27/2003 2:20:52 PM #
There is a breakdown of European sales in this article:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=7435

Just more proof...

TobyG @ 1/27/2003 3:47:40 PM #
...that Palm is 'doomed'. ;~~~

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown
RE: Just more proof...
Foo Fighter @ 1/27/2003 6:54:37 PM #
But, remember, we have cheap PPCs now. So everyone is going to stop buying Palms! ;-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs
RE: Just more proof...
gfunkmagic @ 1/27/2003 7:00:29 PM #
Quote: "...that Palm is 'doomed'. ;~~~"

What again?!! How many times are they gonna fail already?! Heard that before...

RE: Just more proof...
TobyG @ 1/27/2003 7:10:07 PM #
It was a satirical post, gfunkmagic.

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown
RE: Just more proof...
Timothy Rapson @ 1/27/2003 10:04:13 PM #
I am still stunned, by my own actions, but I recommended an Axim to someone just this week. I sure wish Dell had gone with Palm OS, but whether they did or not, it makes the $175 Axim the buy of the day. If Palm (and/or Sony....and no, the new SJs are not it..) doesn't do something spectacular soon, Dell will take an awful lot of market away from them.

I would like to pretend that those 1-1.8 million Axims on order for this week are only displacing Ipaq sales, but I have to think that a fair percentage of people are looking at the Palm M130 and comparing it to the low end Axim and they just can't see spending the same price to get so much less hardware in the Palm.

And yet, to launch a model competitive with the Axim for a price lower than the Sony SJ22, Palm would have to bet every penny of their $200,000,000 in cash reserves. Quite a risky bet, but that is what Dell promised for those 1 million units without knowing that they could sell them. But then, $200 million is a drop in the bucket of Dell's reserves.

RE: Just more proof...
Trilobyte @ 1/27/2003 10:38:07 PM #
It's going to be pretty hard to compete against Dell when they start giving away Axims with purchase of desktop or laptop. I think they did it in the past with some palm models.
RE: Just more proof...
jodpel @ 1/28/2003 12:58:46 AM #
does anybody have any freakin data that shows that dell is outselling anybody in handhelds???? It's a brick. I got rid of a 3955 because it was a brick and I'm sure not buying something bigger, uglier, and plastic because it's cheap. Zires are cheap too. I'm not buying one of those either. If price point is mission critical, why can HP sell iPAQs for $750?

I have yet to see anyone wandering the halls where I work with an Axim. I would see it too. They would either have it strapped to their belt, or be tugging it along behind them in a little red wagon with a Honda generator to squeeze two hours of run time out of it.

Please get off the Axim/PPC is gonna kill Palm garbage unless you have some kind of market data that backs it up. What I SEE is that Palms have 55% share and PPCs have 25%. That's a long row to hoe. Last time I checked, Pocket PC software is not even in the same ball park as far as the number of apps available on Handango.

I think it's a little premature to start the victory dance. The fat lady is not even in the stadium. I think she is at home playing Billiards on her Tungsten T.

RE: Just more proof...
gfunkmagic @ 1/28/2003 2:46:59 AM #
Quote:
"does anybody have any freakin data that shows that dell is outselling anybody in handhelds???? "

Well here is some data published on Cnet form Dataquest. According to the article in 2002 the total number of shipments of pda's by OEM were:

1) Palm: 4.4 million (down 12.2%)
2) HP: 1.6 million (dwon 27.2%)
3) Sony
4) Handspring
5) Toshiba

Exact numbers weren't published for other three. As for Dell, they shipped only 51,000 units. But that is expected to rise.

http://news.com.com/2100-1040-982286.html?tag=fd_top

RE: Just more proof...
Foo Fighter @ 1/28/2003 11:55:49 AM #
> "As for Dell, they shipped only 51,000 units. But that is expected to rise"

Only? 51k is very successful performance considering that was just the debut month of sales for Axim. And Dell still hasn't kept up with demand, which implies well over 51k+ sales. If Dell were able to fill orders, it would be quite interesting to see what the actual number would be.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Just more proof...
Trilobyte @ 1/28/2003 11:58:51 AM #
>>>They would either have it strapped to their belt, or be tugging it along behind them in a little red wagon with a Honda generator to squeeze two hours of run time out of it.

Axim:1440mAh (~6hrs continuous, 14hrs .mp3 continuous)
T|T:900mAh (~4hrs continuous, unknown .mp3 continuous)

>>>Please get off the Axim/PPC is gonna kill Palm garbage unless you have some kind of market data that backs it up. What I SEE is that Palms have 55% share and PPCs have 25%.

The 55% number is based on global annual shipping data. '01
similar number.
1999 POS (~90%)
2000 POS (~80%)
2001 POS (57%)
2002 POS (55%)

>>> Last time I checked, Pocket PC software is not even in the same ball park as far as the number of apps available on Handango.

What the site counters say:
# of active titles at palmgear.com :: 16,371
# of active titles at pocketgear.com :: 13,712
Note: both are inflated and contain numerous junks

RE: Just more proof...
jodpel @ 1/28/2003 10:32:31 PM #
Well, you'll just have to forgive me if I remain a little on the skeptical of the Palm killing Pocket PC "data" that is being put forward here. I've been hearing this since Compaq came out with the 1500 series Aero. It still hasn't happened.

Here are the numbers one more time:
Palm OS handhelds shipped 6.7 million units and have 55% market share. Windows CE shipped 3.1 million units with 25% market share. That is less than half as many! The decline... according to the article being cited repeatedly is :
"The chief cause of this decline was the slumping economy, which slowed sales of the devices into big businesses, according to Dataquest analyst Todd Kort."

And, Trilobyte, I'm well aware of the battery size and capabilities of most if not all Pocket PCs. I've owned: Casio E105, HP Jornada 540, iPAQ 3670, iPAQ 3955, and an iPAQ 1910. I wouldn't trade a single one of these for my Tungsten. My previous statement was a humorous use of hyperbole. Um, you see, I didn't really expect to see anyone pulling a red wagon with a generator in it to power their Axim handheld. ???

Now, lets look at the rather ambitious projections for Axim sales... 51K shipments so far (I don't doubt this). As many as 150K this quarter (yeah right). So 150K X 4 quarters is 600,000 units this year. Let's throw in a generous Christmas '03 season... which I also doubt... and call it 700,000 units. We should also notice that HP's market share has dropped 27% according to the same article. This might possibly maybe could be suggest that Dell is nabbing their customers again... this time with PDAs. So how does 700K units in 2003 which is simultaneously eroding HP's market share compare with 6.7 million units shipped last year by Palm OS PDAs when the Tungsten didn't even hit the street until the last quarter in full swing? Let's not forget that Sony is expected to continue to pump out very nice S series and other PDAs in the $300 range.

I'm not hearing the death nell of Palm around any corners. Perhaps your ears are just better than mine... I doubt that one too.

RE: Just more proof...
Gekko @ 1/28/2003 10:54:34 PM #
jodpel - you mentiond that you own/owned both an HP 1910 and a TT. What did/do you not like about the 1910 relative to the TT?

RE: Just more proof...
Trilobyte @ 1/29/2003 3:33:36 AM #
>>>Now, lets look at the rather ambitious projections for Axim sales... 51K shipments so far (I don't doubt this). As many as 150K this quarter (yeah right). So 150K X 4 quarters is 600,000 units this year. Let's throw in a generous Christmas '03 season... which I also doubt... and call it 700,000 units. We should also notice that HP's market share has dropped 27% according to the same article. This might possibly maybe could be suggest that Dell is nabbing their customers again... this time with PDAs. So how does 700K units in 2003 which is simultaneously eroding HP's market share compare with 6.7 million units
--------
The 51K number is based on the last 2-3 weeks of December when Dell begun selling Axim. Your numerical assumption above are made with everything else hold constant, No new models, no price change, no major marketing effort, etc. just like the 3 weeks of December. Dell has been openly talked about introducing 2 new models on top of the X5, and that might explain their overall target. I Also doubt they can make over 1 million unit next year if they only have X5 on their hand.

And HPQ also has been rumored ready to refreshed their iPAQ line, and I seriously doubt big event like HP/Compaq merger resulting in major product reorganisation will happen again in 2003. Of course nobody know what stupid think might happen. Iraq might nuke HPQ headquarter for all we know. so...

----------
>>>... shipped last year by Palm OS PDAs when the Tungsten didn't even hit the street until the last quarter in full swing? Let's not forget that Sony is expected to continue to pump out very nice S series and other PDAs in the $300 range.
---
T|T's sale is taking a hit after the introduction of h1910 and X5. This has been much discused. The S series is certainly an update, but I don't think it can compete against h1910 or the upcoming h1915/2200 in term of price and feature. The dragonball model won't hold at $300 market anymore.

--------
>>>I'm not hearing the death nell of Palm around any corners. Perhaps your ears are just better than mine... I doubt that one too.
---
Not a death knell, but disappearing into the night maybe? Most statistical projection still put Palm as a sizeable PDA player at least another 3 years, so ...

RE: Just more proof...
Sleuth255 @ 1/29/2003 9:33:20 AM #
let's see: Axim sales projections:

Introduced Nov 17th at Comdex, 2002 sales 51K.
For the sake of argument, let's say they do 51K/month.

Sooo... that's 51K x 12 or 612,000 units/year. And that's given agressive advertising and selling below cost.

Yeah, they're gonna eat Palm too I guess...

RE: Just more proof...
Gekko @ 1/29/2003 9:42:33 AM #
The Dell Axim $50 rebate appears to be gone so it appears that Dell has enough pricing power and is selling them relatively strong.

Never bet against Michael Dell.

RE: Just more proof...
jodpel @ 1/30/2003 3:41:52 PM #
OK. I give up. It appears to be pointless. Pocket PC and/or Dell worshippers shall not be swayed from the opinion that Dell married to Microsoft shall dominate the world... A new world where Palm has .5% market share due to a fervent Palm cult with a few thousand members. I don't even know why we are still visiting the PIC site since Palm is almost dead, now. Hey PIC... you better switch to PPCIC PDQ!!!

BTW. For Gekko,
I took the 1910 back because it was slow and the directional pad was wretched. Very stiff and hard to press. Other than that, it's a pretty cool machine. I use TomeRaider with a huge dictionary file... about 12MB. It was so slow that it was unusable on the 1910. The same file used on a 3955 is very speedy... also on my old 3670 with the StrongARM processor. THe 200Mhz XScale just didn't have to juice for it, though. The file works great on my new Tungsten.

The screen is beautiful, but the digitizer overlay seems kind of cheap and spongy compared to a 39XX series. You might love it. I wouldn't trade my TT for it, though.

Hope that helps you, Gekko.

RE: Just more proof...
BlueAnon @ 1/30/2003 4:37:14 PM #
Nobody knows what future is, but the opinion backed by better number and thought usually is more predictive compared to small musing.
RE: Just more proof...
Trilobyte @ 1/30/2003 4:58:34 PM #
>>>I took the 1910 back because it was slow and the directional pad was wretched. Very stiff and hard to press. Other than that, it's a pretty cool machine. I use TomeRaider with a huge dictionary file... about 12MB. It was so slow that it was unusable on the 1910. The same file used on a 3955 is very speedy... also on my old 3670 with the StrongARM processor. THe 200Mhz XScale just didn't have to juice for it, though. The file works great on my new Tungsten.
--------
For such big file usually people use overclock tray during launch. h1910 is slow handling multi megabyte file like that at 200mHz. There are 3 OC utility out by now and one of them is free. Otherwise wait for the new h2200 or anything with that new PXA255.
PS. how do you feed 12MB dictionary into a TT?
RE: Just more proof...
jodpel @ 1/31/2003 10:55:25 AM #
Umm...
The dictionary file is on the SD card. Works just as well as it did on the 3955. Very speedy lookups. No sluggishness when "Paging" to the next definition. Is that what you were asking???

I installed it via the HotSync conduit. I have CardExport now. That would've been a lot faster. Either way works.

The most astonishing fact is...

gfunkmagic @ 1/27/2003 5:15:22 PM #
The most interesting fact here to me that PalmOS leads in the smartphone arena! This is no small feat considering such heavy-weights like Symbian(Nokia et al), PPC smartphone, and PPC phone are all clamoring for dominance. Most "analysts" have predicted that PalmOS would have no chance against these larger players, but so far they've held their own. It will be interesting how PalmSource's market share fares this year, however, with the big push by M$ and Nokia in the market...

RE: The most astonishing fact is...
mtg101 @ 1/27/2003 5:28:42 PM #
Smartphone market in the US - where Symbian has only released, what, one device? It's a diferent story in the EU.

---
russ@russb.fsnet.co.uk
RE: The most astonishing fact is...
mtg101 @ 1/27/2003 5:33:51 PM #
Here we go:

EMEA PDAs & Smartphones:
#1 Symbian (42%)
#2 PalmOS (24%)
#3 HP (9%)

EMEA Smartphone:
#1 Symbian (84%)
#2 Orange SPV (5%)
#3 Others... including Treos we assume...

From: http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/newsdisplay2.php?id=7144


RE: The most astonishing fact is...
gfunkmagic @ 1/27/2003 6:04:50 PM #
Quote:
"Smartphone market in the US - where Symbian has only released, what, one device? It's a diferent story in the EU."

True... It will be interesting to see how the 3650 fares in the states.

Also, I think we have to define what a smartphone is? Many people consider the t68i a smartphone? I think there's going to be a large spectrum of devices considered smartphones from phone-centric to data-centric devices. Perhpas there will me room enough for all the players to exist in thsi space...


RE: The most astonishing fact is...
Mr. Roboto @ 1/27/2003 9:23:59 PM #
You know, Palm and Handspring et al better get their act together on the smartphone arena quickly. The SonyEricsson P800 looks really good. IMHO way better than the Tungsten W and Treos.

I'm not sure how much volume smart phones are in the US, but I can tell you the world is a much bigger place. Somebody told me Nokia alone sells more than 100 million phones a year. Now, just think if in a couple years time all those phones become smart phones ...

RE: The most astonishing fact is...
TooMuch @ 1/27/2003 11:56:59 PM #
What those numbers mean is that everyone in America (270 million), including old farts and infants, will own a "Nokia" phone within 3 years. Of course they will all feature nuematic email too. Yeah, right!

RE: The most astonishing fact is...
Mr. Roboto @ 1/28/2003 4:31:00 AM #
Well, you may make fun of it, but I can tell you as far I see almost every person I met carries a phone, but not all have PDA, so that tells us something ...

In fact, speaking personally, over the years I have shifted my computer usage from PC to laptops, then to PDA (I don't carry laptop anymore). However, lately I found myself using my T68i more and more, and my Palm less and less. Even though my initial rationale for getting the T68i was to support my Palm via the Bluetooth now it appears the usage pattern has switched somewhat ...



RE: The most astonishing fact is...
Fly-By-Night @ 1/28/2003 7:15:20 AM #
Agreed. While I wouldn't necessarily call the T68i a smartphone, the Nokia equivalents being released now (not the camera phones) are using Symbian with the Series 60 interface. Does this count towards Symbian sales figures? Well, yes. Does this count towards smartphone sales? Hummm!

Since my Handspring's digitzer went, I have been using my T68 for all my PIM functions -- for which it is actually very good (if you have Bluetooth on a laptop to sync data). In that respect, it is quite smart. On the other hand, you can't download new software to it like you can with most phones coming to market now. Most of these (from Nokia, Siemens, Sagem, etc.) don't look like smartphones; but effectively are.

FBN

-----
Ceci n'est pas une signature.

RE: The most astonishing fact is...
xolstis @ 1/28/2003 5:49:52 PM #
Think Palm won't have to compete so much against PPC in the smartphone arena. Who on earth wants a device that takes so darn long to lookup a number anyway?

Symbian on the other hand is a very different story. With NOKIA and SONY-ERICSSON behind Symbian, this doesn't look too good for palmOS smartphones. For one it probably means we will never see a smartphone-clie series as sony will probably just leave the phones to its sony-ericsson venture. That leaves us with handspring, samsung and kyocera, all of which aren;t exactly heavyweights in the mobile phone scene.

xolstis

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