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Comments on: Initial Palm OS US Fall Retail Sales Strong

Some preliminary sales data for the fall '03 US PDA retail sales, is now in. The figures show strong sales of Palm Powered devices, taking the top three spots for 75% of sales for the period.
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Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that

Wollombi @ 12/8/2003 3:54:47 PM #
... or any other Troll that's been predicting PalmOne's untimely demise.

_________________
Sean

Always remember that you are unique. Just like everyone else.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
palmhiker @ 12/8/2003 4:34:45 PM #
This just shows that when a company can pull together well-designed products that are priced right and timed right (competitively), they will have success.

What remains to be seen is if palmone can actually make a profit at their current price points. When/if they become profitable, Ska, Pixelator and all the other Palm haters will have to shut up, for a little while at least.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
RhinoSteve @ 12/8/2003 4:35:57 PM #
Agree. These "chicken littles" that scream Palm is dead can't get a job there. Microsoft now HP cannot and will not do well in the consumer PDA space. They follow too many standards to allow innovation to occur.
RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
hoodoo @ 12/8/2003 4:44:05 PM #
Let's listen over the fence:

shhhhhh......

*** crickets ****

*** tumbleweeds ****

*** rustling grass ***


hehhee....pedal to the metal P1! GO!

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
RhinoSteve @ 12/8/2003 5:17:17 PM #
And the latest MS white elephant falls flat on its face due to screwed up PC oriented marketing and sales.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Foo Fighter @ 12/8/2003 6:03:57 PM #
Well I hate to throw a wet blanket on this discussion, but need I remind you all the PDA market is still in a steady state of decline? As well as PalmOS's share of the OS market? PalmSource hasn't succeeded in attracting new users to this segment of the consumer electronics market. Who cares if PalmOS devices are selling really well in retail if the overall sector is declining?

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com
RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Foo Fighter @ 12/8/2003 6:09:07 PM #
Quote from RhinoSteve: "And the latest MS white elephant falls flat on its face due to screwed up PC oriented marketing and sales."

What white elephant? You mean Pocket PC? Hate to bust your bubble, but Pocket PC is growing. Let's see...PalmOS has fallen to just 35-38% of the mobile OS market. What is Microsoft's share? Hasn't it risen to somewhere around 30%? That's hardly a failure. In fact, PalmOS seems to be declining at a faster rate than Windows Mobile is growing. You call that success?

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
abosco @ 12/8/2003 6:29:50 PM #
>>Sony's new Clie UX-50 is the best-selling handheld in the over-$500 price band.

I must say, I'm very surprised at this. Either this is due to weak competition, or I'm flat out wrong. I can't believe a $700 UX50 is beating out $500 models. I am a self-proclaimed UX hater, and I thought it was going to be a huge failure for Sony. Actually, it's making me rethink exactly what power users and the masses are looking for in a PDA. If this is any indication that the mainstream PDA user is taking it up one notch, I don't know what is. The T|E, a $199 model, is the best selling handheld at the moment. That beats out their $99 model, the Zire 21, in 2nd. I think that's astonishing.

Very very curious about the rest of the top ten, and I'm also curious in what some other people think of the situation.

-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T616

T|E > Z21
Patrick @ 12/8/2003 7:10:18 PM #
I'm not too surprised at the T|E beating out the Z21. I'm guessing that what we are seeing is the Basic Zire rebound wave.

When the original Zire was released, it appealed to a huge, pent-up demand for a low-cost model. I know a lot of people who think they want to get into the PDA world but are worried about blowing a lot of money on a PDA that will end up collecting dust.

Now, though, the great unwashed masses have seen the light. They have their little Zires, but find themselves still hungry. Money is still an issue, though so, for them, the T|E would look like a tasty dish, indeed.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
hotpaw4 @ 12/8/2003 7:57:08 PM #
someone wrote:
>... need I remind you all the PDA market is still in a steady state of decline?

Some of the market data seems to have indicated that the PDA market may have bottomed out from its decline, and this data was also for a period that started before the T|E and Z21 were selling in volume.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Timothy Rapson @ 12/8/2003 9:21:49 PM #
Just to be fair, Pixelator (and I don't even know if he will read this) is now sporting an OS 5 Clie along with his PPC and steered his parents to a Zire 71 this year. Not altogether Palm hating, although he frequently piles on in arguments brought on by Palm haters.

Anyway, I think everyone has seen the best Palm can do with their last 4 big models. The T3, TE, mono Zires and the Zire 71 that is poised to be the best selling PDA of the year with a new list price of $249, are all the best we could have hoped for from Palm. Really out of the ball park market home runs. I think each is priced to provide solid profits for Palm as well.

The visions of suger plums dancing in my head are of a successful mating of the Tungsten T3 with the Zire 71 or TE. I like the camera, don't like the slider. The TE is too flat for my taste. A Zire 71 with a 2 megapixel swivel camera, full video with audio recording, 64 meg, and virtual grafitti could get $500 out of my hands. I would have bought a TE already, if it had only had VG. (I would have supplemented it with a pocket camera like the Minolta G400.)

But, Palm is definitely on a roll as shown by Sony's declining sales. Wonder what Sony might have in store to get back in the game. Sony has dropped prices on several models too and that generally means they are ready for some new introductions. A Sony answer to the Zire 71 might be interesting to those not still smarting from the Sony Memory Stick BIG FAT WHOPPING LIE of 2002-3 as I am.

Rumors of March model intros are just around the corner.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
RhinoSteve @ 12/8/2003 10:04:13 PM #
>>What white elephant? You mean Pocket PC? Hate to
>>bust your bubble, but Pocket PC is growing. Let's
>>see...PalmOS has fallen to just 35-38% of the mobile
>>OS market.

I don't know what Microsoft mouthpiece -- like Gartner -- you are using for this quote but those numbers are dead wrong. Palm OS is has consistenly held 65% yo 75% of the PDA market. Of you are just counting PalmOne branded equipment, and not the other licenesses, you need to go back to school. Put in Sony and the other licensees, you see the real numbers.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
tl47 @ 12/8/2003 11:07:04 PM #
I think foo fighter is correct about the market share. he was quoting the worldwide PDA market, where PalmOS-based PDA only held slightly above 50% at its best. So, he is slightly skewing the data, because while Palm lost market share, it didn't lose as much as he made it out to be. It was like 90+% to 30+%. The US has traditionally been better for Palm, but yes, it used to be 90%, so this is not a news to be too cheerful about. However, I think Palm has done quite a few good things, and if they don't mess up but keep at their steady pace, PPCs will have a tough time soon. It will be interesting, because I suspect Palm will soon have a bigger revenue but lower units sold than HP someday soon with the trend of PPC becoming low-end market, with PalmOS actually considered a higher-end product (by some... correctly or not). I would buy a PPC today... seriously, if I was in the market, because it is way cheaper (~$150-170 for a low-end PPC) for the features I am looking for (color, expandable, small size, adequate software), except perhaps the screen... But of course, that's just me. The Palm has a lot going for it... and I hope they continue doing well. I like their non-PC-based model (the PPC is NOT a PDA. It is a PC fit into a device the size of your pocket... so software are not sync-centric, but runs standalone all over... creating incompatibility, even TextMaker stinks if used with technical documents, while DocsToGo works fine).

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
M3wThr33 @ 12/9/2003 2:17:59 AM #
Well, I'm enjoying my Zire71 and aside from the horrible stick (Make it a pad next time, palmOne) I couldn't be more pleased. Now that I got a 256MB SD card, along with a 128MB one, it's not a hassle to carry two 22-minutes shows, 60MB of mp3s and a whole BUNCH of documents anywhere.

Although the next Zire71 should have a replacement for the stick and a way to record video/audio like the other person said. I really don't think memory is an issue, though, as memory cards negate that need entirely. I'd rather see a higher powered IR beam and have it bundled with Novi/Omni-Remote.

I don't think you understand the gravity of the situation. We're in space.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
macshimidh @ 12/9/2003 10:14:43 AM #
"PalmSource hasn't succeeded in attracting new users to this segment of the consumer electronics market."

Foo,
While I agree with your market share assessment (based on last quarter's figure-- I suspect in the end that this quarter will show a modest shift in favor of PalmOS), I'd have to disagree with the above comment, mainly due to Tapwave. The Zodiac is bringing new customers into the user base from both the non-PIM pocket gaming users, and Games-first PocketPC crowd.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
mikecane @ 12/9/2003 11:02:32 AM #
>>>Just to be fair, Pixelator (and I don't even know if he will read this) is now sporting an OS 5 Clie along with his PPC and steered his parents to a Zire 71 this year. Not altogether Palm hating, although he frequently piles on in arguments brought on by Palm haters.

Is this the same Pixelator over at Brighthand who is active in the Toshiba e8xx board?

How nice that he has a spokesman here...

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Timothy Rapson @ 12/10/2003 6:23:53 PM #
>>>>>Is this the same Pixelator over at Brighthand who is active in the Toshiba e8xx board?

How nice that he has a spokesman here...<<<<<

Not really. I mean he is not the experienced, multi-PDA, and extrememly handsome guy you are Mike, but he is not altogether a Palm hater.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Michael Mace @ 12/11/2003 2:31:29 PM #
I'm sure almost everyone ahs moved on to the fresher topics, but I wanted to add a couple of thoughts to this one.

abosco wrote:

>>Sony's new Clie UX-50 is the best-selling handheld in the over-$500 price band.
>
>I must say, I'm very surprised at this....it's making me rethink exactly what power users >and the masses are looking for in a PDA.

My two cents: Don't try to think of it as one market. You'll make yourself nuts. I think we've got several very different groups of people who want very different things at different price points. The only reason I even add up total market share any more is so I can explain to software developers the total size of their pool of customers. But in reality, there isn't a single market for handhelds. It's a series of overlapping markets.


>The T|E, a $199 model, is the best selling handheld at the moment. That beats out their >$99 model, the Zire 21, in 2nd. I think that's astonishing.

Would it astonish you further if I told you that, in the weekly NPD numbers, the Tungsten 3 has been selling almost as many units as the Zire 21?

There's this myth that most Palm OS users are low-end lightweights. The sales numbers just don't bear that out.


Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
RhinoSteve @ 12/11/2003 4:54:49 PM #
Thanks Mike! Glad someone with real numbers came in and had their say. I stand by what I said previously in this thread.
RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
abosco @ 12/11/2003 9:05:20 PM #
>>My two cents: Don't try to think of it as one market. You'll make yourself nuts. I think we've got several very different groups of people who want very different things at different price points. The only reason I even add up total market share any more is so I can explain to software developers the total size of their pool of customers. But in reality, there isn't a single market for handhelds. It's a series of overlapping markets.

Well of course not. When I said "power users and the masses," I meant them as two different categories, not as one. I was amazed at the UX50 doing the best at $500+ because I believe it to be a poorly-designed product.

>>Would it astonish you further if I told you that, in the weekly NPD numbers, the Tungsten 3 has been selling almost as many units as the Zire 21?

That's very.. wow. I find it astonishing, but hard to believe. Is there any chance you can post some figures?

>>There's this myth that most Palm OS users are low-end lightweights. The sales numbers just don't bear that out.

It's an old myth, but there's still a hint of validity to it. Palm can do low-end products correctly, and they can sell them by the bushel, mostly due to a lack of hardware requirements (which is a good thing in this case). I'm still uneasy about the high-end products available for Palm, though. I would say $400+ is high-end, and I can't really say I'm intrigued by much available for Palm. Evidently a lot of people find the UX50 attractive and have bought it, and that is what puzzled me.

Then again, there's the very real possibility that I'm just weird. ;)

-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T616

RE: Hehe...Wonder what Ska will have to say to that
Michael Mace @ 12/12/2003 8:23:14 PM #
abosco wrote:

>>>Would it astonish you further if I told you that, in >the weekly NPD numbers, the Tungsten 3 has been selling >almost as many units as the Zire 21?
>
>That's very.. wow. I find it astonishing, but hard to >believe. Is there any chance you can post some figures?

I'm sorry, it must seem like I'm doing a fan dance here, dangling a few numbers and withholding others. The reality is that I can't release *any* numbers on the actual sales of our licensees, and I can't reprint the whole NPD report because it belongs to them and they charge money (a lot of money) for it.

But let me sumarize a little bit. We just got the monthly US retail report from NPD for October. The monthly report is the most accurate, because it includes almost all of the retail chains, plus e-commerce (Amazon and friends) and commercial resellers that focus on sales to business. Basically, it's everything except direct sales by the manufacturer and smartphones.

The monthly report shows the exact same trends we saw in the weeklies. Tungsten E continues to be the overwhelming best seller, and Tungsten 3 was solidly #2. When we get into November and December, I'm sure sales of the lower-end products will rise as people shop for bargain gifts. And probably there was pent-up demand for the T3 that might not be repeated. But the overall message is that there's a lot more demand for Palm Powered products at the high end of the price curve than many people realize.

Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

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