Comments on: Q&A with David Nagel
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RE: markets
RE: markets
- Yes Aaron - get back to programming - finish off and release Freedom (Liberty for OS 5)... ;-)
actually, it all works as it should (yay) - but, since we are in a slight little twist with laywers regarding the product it has been delayed. poor mike, being a citizen of the USA is getting hassled by the big-N laywers.
i guess its time to move it overseas - it will take a while to get the legals all sorted out; but, never fear - it isn't very far away! you may even expect atari retro ][ soon! :)
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: markets
JLM.
RE: markets
RE: markets
RE: markets
So you're saying PalmOS will eventually have 33% of the worldwide smartphone market of 400+ million plus handsets by 2008?!!! WHOA!! ;) Umm... Yeah I wish that too...
I support http://Tapland.com/
--------------------
GNM
RE: markets
The desktop computer market is a great example of single player dominance. Microsoft, Apple, Unix, and Linux do not each have 25% of the market. MS dominates with a 90 something lead over the others.
It all boils down to compatability. Until Palm OS and PPC are 100% compatble, they are still two competing platforms. When this compatability is achieved, which I think is inevitable due to the similarities in the hardware, then it will be various device makers competing with eachother over hardware.
Sharp Wizard-->Handspring Visor "Deluxe"-->Sony Clie SJ30-->Palm Tungsten T3 w/ SE T68i
RE: markets
>i'm a developer, and i really dont see how they come up with these figures
The numbers came from NPD Intelect, which is the main retail sales-tracking service in the US. NPD covers all sorts of industries. They track sales through retail storefronts, e-commerce, and corporate resellers (basically, everything except direct sales by the manufacturer).
They also do a weekly survey of phone purchases (some of the phone carriers won't report their device sales to NPD, so the survey is the best source of info for phones.)
NPD is a standard info source; most of the companies selling consumer electronics in the US seem to use them as a source for sales and share info.
Most often we talk about numbers because the press asks (that's what happened in this case; check the interview). We also talk about this stuff at developer conferences, because a lot of developers ask for the info (it helps them determine market size for their products).
>i dont know why palm, microsoft and symbian just dont all sit down and agree that they will eventually end up supporting 33% of the market equally.
Because that would be illegal. ;-)
But yeah, I agree that the market is splitting into lots of segments, and different companies are going to be strong in different ones. The split is not just low end, midrange, and high end; different types of people want to do dramatically different things with smartphones and handhelds.
Commodity markets like PCs and televisions aren't a good model for what'll happen in mobile devices, because the needs of mobile users conflict. What's appealing to one mobile customer is repulsive to another; the "ultimate" handheld or smartphone doesn't exist. I think this market's more like the market for motor vehicles or clothing -- many people use different things, one size fits one.
This segmentation of the market is already happening. Look at the sales differences between the US, Japan, China, and Europe. Each market is dramatically different, even among the various European countries. For example, penetration of handhelds in Europe varies from about 1.5% of the population [Belgium] to 15% [Switzerland]. You can't even say there's a Europe-wide market for this stuff, let alone a worldwide one. You have to look country by country.
And then there are different groups of users within each country...
Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.
RE: markets
in reply:
- Most often we talk about numbers because the press asks (that's what happened in this case; check the interview). We also talk about this stuff at developer conferences, because a lot of developers ask for the info (it helps them determine market size for their products).
while this is a very important topic - as a developer, it can be a very confusing time to actually listen to any figures like this.
from 1999 -> 2002, we were very palm specific (palm exclusive) - with the exception when we were paid a nice sum of money to do something for the vtech helio. at that time, palm had very strong dominance in the handheld market. back then were big times.
from 2002+ - we started to hear much more from handheld users. people making the switch from palm to other platforms; and, the every increasing emergence of nokia with the symbian platform (they can sell more phones in one month than a handheld device can sell in a year). so, we started developing our SHARK development kit - allowing developers to port easily between the different platforms.
from day one when SHARK was available - we noticed a change in the community. more people with pocket pc and symbian devices started asking when our palm games would be converted; effectively, we just opened up our potential sales base three fold.
But yeah, I agree that the market is splitting into lots of segments, and different companies are going to be strong in different ones. The split is not just low end, midrange, and high end; different types of people want to do dramatically different things with smartphones and handhelds.
Commodity markets like PCs and televisions aren't a good model for what'll happen in mobile devices, because the needs of mobile users conflict. What's appealing to one mobile customer is repulsive to another; the "ultimate" handheld or smartphone doesn't exist. I think this market's more like the market for motor vehicles or clothing -- many people use different things, one size fits one.
isn't this more reason to promote to developers that they should consider multiple platforms within their development? when pushing sales numbers showing palm as a dominant player - isn't that a sign from you to them that they shouldn't bother with other platforms?
my point about 33% is specific to let developers know its not just about one platform; it used to be - but, with the diversity of the mobile platforms available; there will never be a single player.
you admit, yourself that there is segmentation; but, is it really such that palm holds 78% of the market (last months numbers). sure, may be the way in the USA - but, keep in mind that there are just over 6 billion people on this planet and around 300 million of these are from the USA.
while, of course not accounting for under developed countries; the USA is only 5% of the worlds population. i would be really interested; from a business development point of view to know worldwide distribution figures; rather than just seeing highlights of certain countries :) i am sure you know what i mean.
my favourite device is still the Treo 600, Sony Clie TH55 in close second; followed by the sony ericsson P900 smartphone. as much as i would love to stay palmos only in my developments; the worldwide market tells me otherwise :)
the reality is that you'll get just as many sales on each platform; if it suits the needs of all consumers.
we could go on forever about the logistics and debate about this; but, we have sales numbers to prove it - and, lets leave it for the beer fest :)
---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: markets
RE: markets
- Will you be updating HaCkMe
the quick answer - no.
while i agree it has some great value to some users (including those who want to use it illegally) - there is just simply too many inter-developer tensions in place if we update this software. if you do have software dependent on hotsync username registered; we recommend that users contact the developer for a new unlock code.
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: markets
Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.
RE: markets
- Aaron--what makes you think that Entry-Level souls will be using Symbian? Don't you think that there should be a Palm OS Solution for the Entry Level Market? Why Symbian for Entry Level? I just don't get it.
the chances are that your grandmother will get a Nokia 3650 before a Palm Zire - why? because you can get those phones for $1 and a 12 month contract anywhere. i think there are entry level palmos devices - but, there are even cheaper alternatives that serve other purposes. why do you think all these manufacturers are working towards smartphone solutions?
PS: www.esd-union.com (another topic altogether)
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
Figures....
Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.
just say no
I used to have some commercial software tied to ROM ID, but I found it wasn't worth the hassle trying to keep up with the updates. For just about any piece of software, there are good alternatives that don't burden the user with such user-hostile schemes.
Put developers that do this sort of thing to their users out of business--don't buy their software.
A pox on you, Nagel!
-- and I hope you have to do TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND DISCRETE DOCUMENTS, one for each. Maybe THEN it will dawn on your dim head that this OS requires a BUILT-IN FILESYSTEM!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
As for sorting, files and folders isn't the greatest system. I have no clue what any of the files in my C:\Windowns\System32\ folder do. I have no idea how deleting one of those files will impact which applications can run. In Palm OS, I just launch MegaCom (Though I could also use the system info screen) and sort by creator ID to find out which programs are connected to which datebases.
I havn't tried this, but if you really want a file system, couldn't you just RAM Disk all of your RAM and install all applications to the fake cards launcher folder.
Sharp Wizard-->Handspring Visor "Deluxe"-->Sony Clie SJ30-->Palm Tungsten T3 w/ SE T68i
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
Nokia 3650 bluetooth magnate
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
- Maybe THEN it will dawn on your dim head that this OS requires a BUILT-IN FILESYSTEM!
thats bollocks. there is no need for a built in file system; its additional overhead that really isn't needed. Palm provides developers with a filesystem when it is needed; that being, you insert an SD/MMC card into your device and you can transport the files to another computer.
if you want to argue that you want to access documents from the internal memory - you can have a conduit connect to the device and give you a virtual overview (ie: as a file system) of the internals directly.
palmos was built without the complexity of a filesystem; and, unless you are a developer - you really never needed to care about such a concept.
---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
- The shame spiral begins.
its a pity flamewars are so easily started on the Internet :) such is life *g* you get used to it. i always wondered what happened to mikecanes prediction stories; i guess, they got dumped :)
i am really considering doing some research into the development of a new os that can be flashed to existing devices; that is compatible with all binaries on each platform. you could imagine having a tri-os, supporting palm/pocketpc and symbian binaries. the hardware is relatively the same *g*
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
They come out ONCE a year. Like I said, your IQ is good for games only. Stick to them.
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
- Like I said, your IQ is good for games only. Stick to them
i've always wondered why even when someone else agrees with a statement i have made; you still claim you are correct. (read up, a tapwave zodiac user replied). can you not afford to be wrong? if you make a mistake; surely you can admit it.
external memory cards were created for a reason - hence why there is has been no need to build an internal file system on the palmos devices; it would be very nice if a conduit could exist to browse the external memory card; but, how it is stored internally - it doesn't matter to the user.
in fact, the palmos does have a file system - its just not a standard one (like FAT12). its a database driven file system specifically designed for fast/simple access.
there are handheld devices that do exist that *do* have filesystems; instead of complaining that your favourite one doesn't - just buy the device that does?!
i wish you would refrain some commenting about technical issues - specifically those around development; as you clearly know absolutely nothing about these topics. i wonder what happened to that prediction about opera being ported - thats right! you had no technical understanding why it couldn't (or would be difficult to) be done - but, you demanded it anyhow. +1 points for mikecane.
feel free to come to a palmsource conference and voice your opinion face to face (i always liked confrontations). but refrain from making yourself look like an idiot on a discussion forum such as this, where you can always hide behind your keyboard and monitor.
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
So I support coexisting databases within the ROM and RAM, mainly because I say that coexisting databases are more economical for the Mobile Devices.
Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.
file system
But there isn't a good way to do that on the Palm: the databases on Palm are just stored in a flat list.
Furthermore, the Palm PDB format doesn't even deserve the name "database". A real database contains metadata describing the data contained in the database. That way, different programs can make use of the data and extend it. Palm lacks that.
Palm needs a file system to organize databases, and it needs a real database format, not the outdated PDB junk it has. I hope POS6 is going to get both.
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
Peace Out
Alan
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
WHICH user, ardiri? Now you claim to speak for ALL of them? Gimme a break.
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
http://www.palminfocenter.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=23750
This is repeated over and over and over. Don't get me started on the CLIE...
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
- Hey, ardiri, how about THIS user?
i am not sure i understand you point. the user you refer to says he cannot open the jpg's on the CARD. and, the *card* has a file system.
the problem here isn't the operating system, its the software that is supposed to open the files *in* the file system. hence, the file system is in fact the issue here - if there wasn't a file system, the application would probably find the files.
overall, the issue is that the software is written badly, since you are browsing an SD card, the application should let the user use any directory on the card.
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
I do understand why Mike Cane is yelling. He probably has lots of files he'd like to shuffle between his PC and Palm handheld. It's likely he has a comprehensive heirarchy for where he stores his stuff.
I think he needs a heirarchical viewer / organizer, rather than a file system.
A file system would be an unnecessary burden in the long term. Palm OS 6 is going the way of schema databases. Note too, that Microsoft Longhorn (or should I say Unicorn :-P ) is heading in that direction. Not that they would eliminate the file system as you know it, but searchng files will be query based. I think BeOS pioneered this approach, and some of its techniques have filtered into Cobalt. Mac OS X already does something like this although very crudely.
Anyway, the Palm handheld is extremely useful to me without a "file system."
RE: Nagel Insider Trades
did anyone really look at this?
doesn't anyone ask why david nagel is selling 125,000 stocks in palmsource? estimated proceed's = 2.6million USD. not bad :)
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php
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markets
isn't anyone really concerned with the numbers being reported from these so called "market analysis" companies? i'm a developer, and i really dont see how they come up with these figures - to make matters worse; why dont palm specifically start talking about the european numbers as well?
i dont know why palm, microsoft and symbian just dont all sit down and agree that they will eventually end up supporting 33% of the market equally. most likely, entry point users will use symbian series 60 (nokia), mid range use palmos, symbian uiq (palm, sony ericsson) and hi-end users will use either palm or pocket pc (palm, microsoft).
i have said it once, and i will say it again - there will soon never be a dominating platform in the mobile work space; palm had its dominating period - and, now that the mobile concept has become mainstream; there will be solutions available from multiple providers - and the user will choose what they like best.
just think of the VCR and TV concept; does SONY, Panasonic, JVC have a specific "marketing share" over the other? no - now, apply the same concept to handhelds and smartphones.
for the record, i own a serious number of handhelds/smartphones - and i really dont see the difference between them really from a users point of view. the treo 600 has some great features - but, so does the sony ericsson p800/p900. not much difference between them really, except maybe i prefer the treo because i started with palm first.
its about time these companies stopped filling these news sites with FUD about market shares and sales etc.. its all purely sales and marketing to impress the investors and hope that the stock doesn't crumble.
my 2c :) anyhow, back to programming.
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Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php