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Comments on: Q&A with David Nagel

DigiTimes has just published a interview with David Nagel, president and CEO of PalmSource. The Q&A session covers a wide range of Palm OS-related topics, including ODM arrangements to Palm OS Cobalt wireless support.
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markets

ardiri @ 8/12/2004 3:23:36 PM #
In the US market, Palm OS is absolutely the leader. ... Palm OS has a 78% market share in the latest reporting month.

isn't anyone really concerned with the numbers being reported from these so called "market analysis" companies? i'm a developer, and i really dont see how they come up with these figures - to make matters worse; why dont palm specifically start talking about the european numbers as well?

i dont know why palm, microsoft and symbian just dont all sit down and agree that they will eventually end up supporting 33% of the market equally. most likely, entry point users will use symbian series 60 (nokia), mid range use palmos, symbian uiq (palm, sony ericsson) and hi-end users will use either palm or pocket pc (palm, microsoft).

i have said it once, and i will say it again - there will soon never be a dominating platform in the mobile work space; palm had its dominating period - and, now that the mobile concept has become mainstream; there will be solutions available from multiple providers - and the user will choose what they like best.

just think of the VCR and TV concept; does SONY, Panasonic, JVC have a specific "marketing share" over the other? no - now, apply the same concept to handhelds and smartphones.

for the record, i own a serious number of handhelds/smartphones - and i really dont see the difference between them really from a users point of view. the treo 600 has some great features - but, so does the sony ericsson p800/p900. not much difference between them really, except maybe i prefer the treo because i started with palm first.

its about time these companies stopped filling these news sites with FUD about market shares and sales etc.. its all purely sales and marketing to impress the investors and hope that the stock doesn't crumble.

my 2c :) anyhow, back to programming.

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: markets
killah fury @ 8/12/2004 3:50:29 PM #
Yes Aaron - get back to programming - finish off and release Freedom (Liberty for OS 5)... ;-)

RE: markets
ardiri @ 8/12/2004 4:06:59 PM #
    Yes Aaron - get back to programming - finish off and release Freedom (Liberty for OS 5)... ;-)

actually, it all works as it should (yay) - but, since we are in a slight little twist with laywers regarding the product it has been delayed. poor mike, being a citizen of the USA is getting hassled by the big-N laywers.

i guess its time to move it overseas - it will take a while to get the legals all sorted out; but, never fear - it isn't very far away! you may even expect atari retro ][ soon! :)



---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: markets
just_little_me @ 8/12/2004 5:18:45 PM #
With some decent games, and a > 15 second trial period? Might sell a few more copies that way...


JLM.

RE: markets
Quickster @ 8/12/2004 7:06:27 PM #
Shouldn't that really be "an interview" and not "a interview." I would have expected better grammar from you Ryan. Shame, shame, shame.

RE: markets
Massman82 @ 8/12/2004 7:54:01 PM #
give him a break

-------------
Roman
Clie NX60 - Massman82@PDArcade.com
RE: markets
arielb @ 8/12/2004 11:46:38 PM #
one would have expected Microsoft to dominate in this market just as it dominates the OS market, Office, web browser, etc. Especially since for a long time palms were using dragonball cpu's and black and white displays! So this is something Palm (both palm1 and palmsource) should be proud of.

RE: markets
gfunkmagic @ 8/13/2004 1:28:54 AM #
>>>>>>i dont know why palm, microsoft and symbian just dont all sit down and agree that they will eventually end up supporting 33% of the market equally....

So you're saying PalmOS will eventually have 33% of the worldwide smartphone market of 400+ million plus handsets by 2008?!!! WHOA!! ;) Umm... Yeah I wish that too...

I support http://Tapland.com/

--------------------
GNM

RE: markets
tfftruoa @ 8/13/2004 2:34:33 AM #
That's really not how markets work. The analogy to TV makers is fairly bad. A TV is a TV. All TVs will connect to the same DVD players and the same speakers. It's differant brands running on the same platform. When talking about different platforms, theres a tendancy for one player to dominate the market. Dell, Gateway, HP, Toshiba, and Sony all make hardware, so they compete with eachother in that market, but since they all run the same OS, they're running on the same platform, so there is no interplatform compitition as there is between HP and PalmOne.

The desktop computer market is a great example of single player dominance. Microsoft, Apple, Unix, and Linux do not each have 25% of the market. MS dominates with a 90 something lead over the others.

It all boils down to compatability. Until Palm OS and PPC are 100% compatble, they are still two competing platforms. When this compatability is achieved, which I think is inevitable due to the similarities in the hardware, then it will be various device makers competing with eachother over hardware.

Sharp Wizard-->Handspring Visor "Deluxe"-->Sony Clie SJ30-->Palm Tungsten T3 w/ SE T68i

RE: markets
Michael Mace @ 8/13/2004 2:37:59 PM #
Aaron asked:


>i'm a developer, and i really dont see how they come up with these figures

The numbers came from NPD Intelect, which is the main retail sales-tracking service in the US. NPD covers all sorts of industries. They track sales through retail storefronts, e-commerce, and corporate resellers (basically, everything except direct sales by the manufacturer).

They also do a weekly survey of phone purchases (some of the phone carriers won't report their device sales to NPD, so the survey is the best source of info for phones.)

NPD is a standard info source; most of the companies selling consumer electronics in the US seem to use them as a source for sales and share info.

Most often we talk about numbers because the press asks (that's what happened in this case; check the interview). We also talk about this stuff at developer conferences, because a lot of developers ask for the info (it helps them determine market size for their products).


>i dont know why palm, microsoft and symbian just dont all sit down and agree that they will eventually end up supporting 33% of the market equally.

Because that would be illegal. ;-)

But yeah, I agree that the market is splitting into lots of segments, and different companies are going to be strong in different ones. The split is not just low end, midrange, and high end; different types of people want to do dramatically different things with smartphones and handhelds.

Commodity markets like PCs and televisions aren't a good model for what'll happen in mobile devices, because the needs of mobile users conflict. What's appealing to one mobile customer is repulsive to another; the "ultimate" handheld or smartphone doesn't exist. I think this market's more like the market for motor vehicles or clothing -- many people use different things, one size fits one.

This segmentation of the market is already happening. Look at the sales differences between the US, Japan, China, and Europe. Each market is dramatically different, even among the various European countries. For example, penetration of handhelds in Europe varies from about 1.5% of the population [Belgium] to 15% [Switzerland]. You can't even say there's a Europe-wide market for this stuff, let alone a worldwide one. You have to look country by country.

And then there are different groups of users within each country...

Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

RE: markets
ardiri @ 8/13/2004 6:16:19 PM #
Mike, i am glad you actually do come here to answer questions :) i'll be sure to catch up with you for a beer at oktoberfest this year (if you are going).

in reply:

    Most often we talk about numbers because the press asks (that's what happened in this case; check the interview). We also talk about this stuff at developer conferences, because a lot of developers ask for the info (it helps them determine market size for their products).

while this is a very important topic - as a developer, it can be a very confusing time to actually listen to any figures like this.

from 1999 -> 2002, we were very palm specific (palm exclusive) - with the exception when we were paid a nice sum of money to do something for the vtech helio. at that time, palm had very strong dominance in the handheld market. back then were big times.

from 2002+ - we started to hear much more from handheld users. people making the switch from palm to other platforms; and, the every increasing emergence of nokia with the symbian platform (they can sell more phones in one month than a handheld device can sell in a year). so, we started developing our SHARK development kit - allowing developers to port easily between the different platforms.

from day one when SHARK was available - we noticed a change in the community. more people with pocket pc and symbian devices started asking when our palm games would be converted; effectively, we just opened up our potential sales base three fold.


    But yeah, I agree that the market is splitting into lots of segments, and different companies are going to be strong in different ones. The split is not just low end, midrange, and high end; different types of people want to do dramatically different things with smartphones and handhelds.

    Commodity markets like PCs and televisions aren't a good model for what'll happen in mobile devices, because the needs of mobile users conflict. What's appealing to one mobile customer is repulsive to another; the "ultimate" handheld or smartphone doesn't exist. I think this market's more like the market for motor vehicles or clothing -- many people use different things, one size fits one.

isn't this more reason to promote to developers that they should consider multiple platforms within their development? when pushing sales numbers showing palm as a dominant player - isn't that a sign from you to them that they shouldn't bother with other platforms?

my point about 33% is specific to let developers know its not just about one platform; it used to be - but, with the diversity of the mobile platforms available; there will never be a single player.

you admit, yourself that there is segmentation; but, is it really such that palm holds 78% of the market (last months numbers). sure, may be the way in the USA - but, keep in mind that there are just over 6 billion people on this planet and around 300 million of these are from the USA.

while, of course not accounting for under developed countries; the USA is only 5% of the worlds population. i would be really interested; from a business development point of view to know worldwide distribution figures; rather than just seeing highlights of certain countries :) i am sure you know what i mean.

my favourite device is still the Treo 600, Sony Clie TH55 in close second; followed by the sony ericsson P900 smartphone. as much as i would love to stay palmos only in my developments; the worldwide market tells me otherwise :)

the reality is that you'll get just as many sales on each platform; if it suits the needs of all consumers.
we could go on forever about the logistics and debate about this; but, we have sales numbers to prove it - and, lets leave it for the beer fest :)

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: markets
Tuckermaclain @ 8/15/2004 10:44:17 AM #
Off the subject a little, but since Ardiri is here I'll ask. Will you be updating HaCkMe? My Z-72 was stolen and it took me about 15 hours to rebuild a new one from an old copy of my card. What made it so tedious was all the user ID and ROM ID conflicts for 100+ programs. We really need a piece of software that will emulate user IDs AND ROM IDs. Some developers are out of business and won't update. Please??!! That was the slickest piece of software ever made, and I'm proud to say I was the one of the lucky few to scoop it up during the few hours it was on Palmgear.

RE: markets
ardiri @ 8/15/2004 1:12:49 PM #
    Will you be updating HaCkMe

the quick answer - no.

while i agree it has some great value to some users (including those who want to use it illegally) - there is just simply too many inter-developer tensions in place if we update this software. if you do have software dependent on hotsync username registered; we recommend that users contact the developer for a new unlock code.


---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: markets
vesther @ 8/15/2004 1:44:25 PM #
Aaron--what makes you think that Entry-Level souls will be using Symbian? Don't you think that there should be a Palm OS Solution for the Entry Level Market? Why Symbian for Entry Level? I just don't get it.

Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.
RE: markets
ardiri @ 8/15/2004 2:36:00 PM #
    Aaron--what makes you think that Entry-Level souls will be using Symbian? Don't you think that there should be a Palm OS Solution for the Entry Level Market? Why Symbian for Entry Level? I just don't get it.

the chances are that your grandmother will get a Nokia 3650 before a Palm Zire - why? because you can get those phones for $1 and a 12 month contract anywhere. i think there are entry level palmos devices - but, there are even cheaper alternatives that serve other purposes. why do you think all these manufacturers are working towards smartphone solutions?

PS: www.esd-union.com (another topic altogether)


---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

Figures....
vesther @ 8/15/2004 9:45:52 PM #
I thought so.....Maybe I was wrong after all......

Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.
just say no
tompi @ 8/16/2004 3:27:50 AM #
"My Z-72 was stolen and it took me about 15 hours to rebuild a new one from an old copy of my card. What made it so tedious was all the user ID and ROM ID conflicts for 100+ programs."

I used to have some commercial software tied to ROM ID, but I found it wasn't worth the hassle trying to keep up with the updates. For just about any piece of software, there are good alternatives that don't burden the user with such user-hostile schemes.

Put developers that do this sort of thing to their users out of business--don't buy their software.

A pox on you, Nagel!

mikecane @ 8/13/2004 11:07:28 AM #
He says: "For example, I have 25,000 phone numbers stored on my communicator, which happens to be a Treo600 from palmOne."

-- and I hope you have to do TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND DISCRETE DOCUMENTS, one for each. Maybe THEN it will dawn on your dim head that this OS requires a BUILT-IN FILESYSTEM!

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
hotpaw4 @ 8/13/2004 3:36:31 PM #
A database is better than a filesystem for both power (battery life) and performance reasons.
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
tfftruoa @ 8/13/2004 4:36:11 PM #
As long as there is a good way to search and sort, databases are much easier to deal with. The search function in Palm OS is ok, although the ability to search within documents and to search for system databases and applications is still lacking.

As for sorting, files and folders isn't the greatest system. I have no clue what any of the files in my C:\Windowns\System32\ folder do. I have no idea how deleting one of those files will impact which applications can run. In Palm OS, I just launch MegaCom (Though I could also use the system info screen) and sort by creator ID to find out which programs are connected to which datebases.

I havn't tried this, but if you really want a file system, couldn't you just RAM Disk all of your RAM and install all applications to the fake cards launcher folder.

Sharp Wizard-->Handspring Visor "Deluxe"-->Sony Clie SJ30-->Palm Tungsten T3 w/ SE T68i

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
pkuhns @ 8/13/2004 4:36:54 PM #
Why is mikecane always screaming? this ain't politics, just PDAs...

Nokia 3650 bluetooth magnate
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
mikecane @ 8/13/2004 5:49:00 PM #
I scream because PalmSource is hard of hearing. VERY hard of hearing. Wait until they put it in. It's inevitable (if they last that long). But it should have been in OS6 to begin with.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
ardiri @ 8/13/2004 6:31:36 PM #
mikecane wrote:

    Maybe THEN it will dawn on your dim head that this OS requires a BUILT-IN FILESYSTEM!

thats bollocks. there is no need for a built in file system; its additional overhead that really isn't needed. Palm provides developers with a filesystem when it is needed; that being, you insert an SD/MMC card into your device and you can transport the files to another computer.

if you want to argue that you want to access documents from the internal memory - you can have a conduit connect to the device and give you a virtual overview (ie: as a file system) of the internals directly.

palmos was built without the complexity of a filesystem; and, unless you are a developer - you really never needed to care about such a concept.

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
rsc1000 @ 8/13/2004 6:59:22 PM #
Yeah - i think its fine the way it is now. Besides, devices licensees are free to allow vfs access to storage memory if they want to - like tapwave does with the zod. My personal gripe is that the desktop software should allow you to sync ANY file type to the expansion media (card) - so users don't have to do any silly .mp3 renaming tricks just to move files to the card. And why not have a file explorer app on the device as a bundled app? ok - so Palm OS is supposed to be simple, which is why i agree that the file system does not need to extend to main memory. But couldn't they at least include it on the CD that comes with the device? It would take them all of 2 days for one of there developers to make a simple, file explorer app (simple like the style of the built in apps). Also - for the love of god - treat the Palm as a removable drive already and let us access the card's file system from explorer when it's in the cradle. Yes, i know, Sony does this with the clie and other manufacturers can do the work to provide this if they wish, but it should be a standard. And no, i don't want to have to pay $$$ to get card export or a card reader - the capability is there so just give to us already. One final gripe: if Card Export can - using software - allow speeds that are 10x faster than hotsync then so can PalmSource. I am sick of waiting 20 freakin' minutes to move 10 meg file. There - i feel better now;)

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
mikecane @ 8/14/2004 10:18:15 AM #
ardiri, stick to games. That's the span of your IQ. For real *work*, you know bollocks.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
Strider_mt2k @ 8/14/2004 12:11:52 PM #
Super.

The shame spiral begins.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
ardiri @ 8/14/2004 2:13:32 PM #
    The shame spiral begins.

its a pity flamewars are so easily started on the Internet :) such is life *g* you get used to it. i always wondered what happened to mikecanes prediction stories; i guess, they got dumped :)

i am really considering doing some research into the development of a new os that can be flashed to existing devices; that is compatible with all binaries on each platform. you could imagine having a tri-os, supporting palm/pocketpc and symbian binaries. the hardware is relatively the same *g*

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
mikecane @ 8/14/2004 5:17:04 PM #
>>>i always wondered what happened to mikecanes prediction stories; i guess, they got dumped

They come out ONCE a year. Like I said, your IQ is good for games only. Stick to them.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
ardiri @ 8/15/2004 5:23:22 AM #
    Like I said, your IQ is good for games only. Stick to them

i've always wondered why even when someone else agrees with a statement i have made; you still claim you are correct. (read up, a tapwave zodiac user replied). can you not afford to be wrong? if you make a mistake; surely you can admit it.

external memory cards were created for a reason - hence why there is has been no need to build an internal file system on the palmos devices; it would be very nice if a conduit could exist to browse the external memory card; but, how it is stored internally - it doesn't matter to the user.

in fact, the palmos does have a file system - its just not a standard one (like FAT12). its a database driven file system specifically designed for fast/simple access.

there are handheld devices that do exist that *do* have filesystems; instead of complaining that your favourite one doesn't - just buy the device that does?!

i wish you would refrain some commenting about technical issues - specifically those around development; as you clearly know absolutely nothing about these topics. i wonder what happened to that prediction about opera being ported - thats right! you had no technical understanding why it couldn't (or would be difficult to) be done - but, you demanded it anyhow. +1 points for mikecane.

feel free to come to a palmsource conference and voice your opinion face to face (i always liked confrontations). but refrain from making yourself look like an idiot on a discussion forum such as this, where you can always hide behind your keyboard and monitor.

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
vesther @ 8/15/2004 1:46:13 PM #
IMHO, the Palm OS does NOT require a Filesystem at all--simple databases that coexist within the handheld's infrastructure is a plenty--coexisting databases that exist within the ROM and RAM uses up less power than a Mobile File System.

So I support coexisting databases within the ROM and RAM, mainly because I say that coexisting databases are more economical for the Mobile Devices.

Intel PXA27X, Motorola's ARM Processor, or Texas Instruments OMAP? Pick one Palm Enthusiasts, the choice should be yours. When handheld makers make you choose the ARM Processor, you win.

file system
tompi @ 8/16/2004 3:31:57 AM #
"As long as there is a good way to search and sort, databases are much easier to deal with."

But there isn't a good way to do that on the Palm: the databases on Palm are just stored in a flat list.

Furthermore, the Palm PDB format doesn't even deserve the name "database". A real database contains metadata describing the data contained in the database. That way, different programs can make use of the data and extend it. Palm lacks that.

Palm needs a file system to organize databases, and it needs a real database format, not the outdated PDB junk it has. I hope POS6 is going to get both.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
AyDb @ 8/16/2004 1:47:49 PM #
Excuse me for putting holes in the Palm apologist argument, but using databases instead of a file system does not save power. Any difference in processor usage between the two would be so insignificant as to be immeasurable. There is no reasonable technical reason why Palm cannot have an internal file system, and there's no good design reason either. VFS doesn't cut it. The database system is just an ugly kludge, left over from the 16 MHz Palm IIIs because PalmSource is too stiff-necked to change it.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
atrizzah @ 8/16/2004 7:52:58 PM #
It's too bad PalmSource isn't as good as Mike Cane at bitching, whining and flinging insults at random people. Surely that would be worth more than any kickass file system

Peace Out
Alan
RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
mikecane @ 8/18/2004 8:38:18 AM #
>>>how it is stored internally - it doesn't matter to the user

WHICH user, ardiri? Now you claim to speak for ALL of them? Gimme a break.

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
mikecane @ 8/18/2004 8:56:19 AM #
Hey, ardiri, how about THIS user?

http://www.palminfocenter.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=23750

This is repeated over and over and over. Don't get me started on the CLIE...

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
ardiri @ 8/19/2004 12:33:37 PM #
    Hey, ardiri, how about THIS user?

i am not sure i understand you point. the user you refer to says he cannot open the jpg's on the CARD. and, the *card* has a file system.

the problem here isn't the operating system, its the software that is supposed to open the files *in* the file system. hence, the file system is in fact the issue here - if there wasn't a file system, the application would probably find the files.

overall, the issue is that the software is written badly, since you are browsing an SD card, the application should let the user use any directory on the card.

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: A pox on you, Nagel!
lamp @ 8/21/2004 10:02:26 AM #
Just trying to play peace maker here...

I do understand why Mike Cane is yelling. He probably has lots of files he'd like to shuffle between his PC and Palm handheld. It's likely he has a comprehensive heirarchy for where he stores his stuff.

I think he needs a heirarchical viewer / organizer, rather than a file system.

A file system would be an unnecessary burden in the long term. Palm OS 6 is going the way of schema databases. Note too, that Microsoft Longhorn (or should I say Unicorn :-P ) is heading in that direction. Not that they would eliminate the file system as you know it, but searchng files will be query based. I think BeOS pioneered this approach, and some of its techniques have filtered into Cobalt. Mac OS X already does something like this although very crudely.

Anyway, the Palm handheld is extremely useful to me without a "file system."


Nagel Insider Trades

Gekko @ 8/14/2004 4:41:15 PM #
RE: Nagel Insider Trades
mikecane @ 8/14/2004 5:18:21 PM #
Well, Gekko, I have to hand it to you this time. Brilliantly apt post!

RE: Nagel Insider Trades
ardiri @ 8/19/2004 12:36:51 PM #

did anyone really look at this?

doesn't anyone ask why david nagel is selling 125,000 stocks in palmsource? estimated proceed's = 2.6million USD. not bad :)

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

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