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Comments on: Forbes Predicts Upcoming Treo Releases

Forbes has a new article on Palm's upcoming product launches. Based on a conversation with a market analyst, the article claims UTMS & EVDO Palm OS Treos could arrive next year along with a new mid-range line of Treos selling for around $200.
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Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!

sr4 @ 11/4/2005 3:19:25 PM # Q

Its going to be head to head, WM vs POS, the same device, same specs (bluetooth, evdo, 32Mb ram, 312Mhz processor), SAME SHELVES. Which one will win in SALES, which one will be more stable!! Its the experiment we have all been waiting for!! (well, some at least).

Surur

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
Frenchie @ 11/4/2005 3:25:33 PM # Q
Evdo?

Palm OS 5 doesn't have stack support for EVDO. Is this a signal of the advent of Cobalt?

The world will end in 2006. Just as it was predicted in the bible along with the release of Microsoft Longhorn.... :p

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
fierywater @ 11/4/2005 3:32:01 PM # Q
no, palm'll just continue to hack at garnet to enable evdo.

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
AdamaDBrown @ 11/4/2005 6:01:18 PM # Q
Before anyone panics, the 32 MB of memory referred to in the 700w is real RAM, not flash, so hopefully both it and the 700p (or whatever it's called) will have a more reasonable amount of main storage, like 128 MB.

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
anonyME @ 11/5/2005 11:49:28 AM # Q
Palm seems to have advantage with the square screen form factor. WM with square screen is not well supported. Besides, the stupidly wide WM scroll bars, top and bottom menu bars will just eat up all the screen space.

WM Palm device just doesn't stand a chance with the HTC WM ODM devices out there.

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
mbuhboot @ 11/6/2005 3:28:05 PM # Q
There is no such thing as "real RAM" an "unreal" RAM..

Every Palm - including the LifeDrive and the Treo 650 have RAM in it. In the new NVFS units it is used THE SAME WAY that WM5 uses it - for program execution (caching of programs), application "temporary" - aka heap and stack. And off-course - operating system caching.

So the Treo 700w and 700p share the SAME memory architecture physically and almost identical memory architecture.

Moshe

RE: Its head to head!! WM vs POS !!
fishtastic @ 11/6/2005 6:51:48 PM # Q
anonyME said

"Palm seems to have advantage with the square screen form factor. WM with square screen is not well supported. Besides, the stupidly wide WM scroll bars, top and bottom menu bars will just eat up all the screen space.

WM Palm device just doesn't stand a chance with the HTC WM ODM devices out there."

Yep you're right, I wouldn't buy a 240*240 WinMob product its a crazy resolution without good software support. In fact that's why I bought a Universal, nice 640*480 screen.

Fish

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Gates says "How you like me now?"

Gekko @ 11/4/2005 5:37:17 PM # Q

"Palm delayed it so it can concentrate on the Windows Treo release."



RE: Gates says "How do you like me now?"
twrock @ 11/4/2005 6:29:15 PM # Q
Just one more reason not to.

I'm still waiting for the mythical "color HandEra."
Reply to this comment

Is there anything for Christmas or 2006 Q1?

asiayeah @ 11/4/2005 6:51:43 PM # Q
While lots of new smartphones are announced by Nokia, Motorola and Sony Ericsson by either end of this year or Q1 2006, is there any new Palm OS based smartphones from Palm for the same period?

--
With great power comes great responsiblity.
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Lowrider and Hollywood - more details emerge.

sr4 @ 11/4/2005 6:57:41 PM # Q
"We also just got some more news about what’s going on with the Treos, this time not only from Palm’s side of the game, but also from HTC’s. According to a leaked analyst report from a very well known firm that we got our hands on, Palm plans switching large amounts of ODM orders from HTC to Inventec Appliance in late Q1 2006, with expectations of eventually primarily partnering with Inventec for device-making. According to the analyst report, Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales, which is very interesting — but what’s even more interesting are the details about two new Treos probably being planned with Inventec. The first is codenamed “Hollywood,” and is supposedly going to be a very thin 3G device with no external antenna; the second is the “Lowrider” (we’ll save you the obligatory War reference), which could well be the same lower end consumer device we just heard about from Caris & Co."

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000107066688/

RE: Lowrider and Hollywood - more details emerge.
twizza @ 11/4/2005 9:16:24 PM # Q
Surur;
Just to let you know, I really appreciate ya. This is a good find.

mobileministrymagazine.com
antoinerjwright.com
RE: Lowrider and Hollywood - more details emerge.
LiveFaith @ 11/4/2005 9:57:11 PM # Q
Ooooh. A thin antennaless model. That's exciting! The RAZR type smartfone by Moto can easily be outdistanced with a much better implementation. Thin is in and Palm is smart to go there.

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: Lowrider and Hollywood - more details emerge.
Simony @ 11/5/2005 1:57:43 AM # Q
A thin antennaless KEYBOARDLESS model would be better - just like some of your mock-ups, LiveFaith.

RE: Lowrider and Hollywood - more details emerge.
LiveFaith @ 11/6/2005 8:06:59 PM # Q
They pay me all this money to develop ... then don't use em'. I can't understand it?

Actually, I am ready to jump on an HVGA/VGA PDA-centric device with GSM connectivity. I think others are as well, but Palm laid the i705 + T|W eggs awhile back and seems reluctant to throw more "good $$$ after bad". I would start saving pennies tommorrow if I knew that something like the Palm OS Cingular 8215 was coming.

http://www.churchoflivingfaith.com/images/htc8215.jpg

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

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What is EVDO radio???

elbert27 @ 11/4/2005 7:04:18 PM # Q
Forgive me for asking, but what the heck is EVDO radio??? Is it satelite XM radio? or Is it an upgrade from Bluetooth?

RE: What is EVDO radio???
Gekko @ 11/4/2005 7:15:33 PM # Q

Google



RE: What is EVDO radio???
AdamaDBrown @ 11/4/2005 10:20:14 PM # Q
Moving past Gekko's snippy reply, EVDO is a high-speed data standard for CDMA networks. An EVDO device can get speeds up to 500 Kbits per second on EVDO, sometimes even faster.

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Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%

sr4 @ 11/4/2005 6:59:53 PM # Q
"Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales,"

Ive been waiting for a long time now for updated figures from the POS vs WM sales situation. Unfortuanately Canalys decided not to publish these figures on this occasion. The last accurate information we have is from Q2 2005, when is was 1157720 (POS) vs 1931630 (WM), leading to a 37% vs 63% split.

Using the very small snippit of information, we can put bounds to the current situation marketshare wise.

POS Treo's=53% of Palm's shipments = 1053390*53%=558297 devices.

At 15% of HTC devices, thats 3721978 total HTC devices, meaning the split is 28% vs 72%

At 20% of HTC devices, thats 2791483 total HTC devices, meaning the split is 37% vs 63%

So the upper bound of POS vs WM marketshare is 37%, and this excludes approximately 500 000 WM devices made by other ODM's (HP, Acer, Mio, Eten). (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS00266705 )

When added to the HTC count one gets about 1 million POS devices produced, vs 3-4 million WM devices produced. Thats 20-25% marketshare (if they all sell out of course).

Any critisims and corrections welcome.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Rome @ 11/4/2005 10:18:54 PM # Q
Let me give that a try, Surur.

"Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales,"

It is not clear from this statement if the analyst meant revenue or unit shipments. Given that the author is a financial analyst, I am leaning toward revenue instead of unit shipments. And I am pretty sure that HTC didn't generate 100% of their revenue from hardware sales only. Also keep in mind that HTC gets meaningfully less revenue on a Treo than on a comparable WM device, since Palm does all the software work and some hardware design work as well.

"So the upper bound of POS vs WM marketshare is 37%, and this excludes approximately 500 000 WM devices made by other ODM's (HP, Acer, Mio, Eten). (http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS00266705 )"

If my memory serves me right, HTC also makes PDAs and smartphones for HP and Dell(PDA only), so there are not 500K of WM devices missing. Furthermore, a significant number of HTC devices shipped are based on the Windows Smartphone platform, which are more feature phones than smartphones. Not sure if they are included in the IDC or Canaly's reports.

"When added to the HTC count one gets about 1 million POS devices produced, vs 3-4 million WM devices produced. Thats 20-25% marketshare (if they all sell out of course)."

Palm is not the only make of Palm OS devices. There are others as you are fully aware. So your 1 million number is too low. And I think your WM device count is too high based on my points above.

Surur, don't let your love for all things Microsoft cloud your judgement and analytical ability.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
AdamaDBrown @ 11/4/2005 10:20:28 PM # Q
The problem with your figures is that they don't account for other possible devices being produced by HTC. For instance, does anyone know if Palm has used HTC to produce the TX? Also, HP used to use HTC to produce many of their iPaqs. They've taken the designs and engineering in-house for the recent models, but I've never seen a clear answer whether or not they had HTC build them. This makes a direct extrapolation difficult.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/4/2005 11:04:03 PM # Q
I went down to the bagel shop today. For one hour I carefully counted the number of bagels vs the number of muffins sold: 53 vs 24, including a number of bagel orders including a complimentary coffee, and also counting a single gift box of 12 muffins. :)

I then multipled 53 by the constant, k, and added a special padding factor to the muffin total of 24. From this I was able to infer that the split between wince and Palm marketshare was 28% vs 72% respectively at the upper bound, and 37% vs 63% at the lower bound. :)

Comments or corrections welcome. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Captain Hair @ 11/4/2005 11:39:22 PM # Q
HTC isn't the only hardware manufacturer out there. You're drawing faulty conclusions from incomplete data. Try again.

"People who think they're smart annoy those of us who are."
RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
fierywater @ 11/5/2005 12:18:42 AM # Q
HTC's figures are still significant, despite the fact that they're not the only hardware manufacturer, because they're the largest by far. I'm not sure how it happened, but you'd be hard-pressed to buy a Treo or WM smartphone that wasn't assembled by HTC. I realize there are a few exceptions, but HTC's got a major grip on the smartphone (and to a lesser extent, the PDA) market.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
AdamaDBrown @ 11/5/2005 4:07:32 AM # Q
If you look at Palm OS units not produced by Palm Inc., they're low enough to be almost irrelevant (less than 1/10th of Palm's output, at any rate). And HTC is by far the ten kiloton gorilla of the handheld market. I wouldn't be surprised if non-HTC Windows devices only added up to about 1/4 of HTC's total output. But the numbers still don't scale, because you don't have a proper breakdown of what HTC is producing. You would need clear and accurate figures for what HTC builds and how many of them are for other companies before you could properly weight the scales.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/5/2005 4:52:42 AM # Q

All your critisims are accurate, though not necessarily correct. I would appreciate any more solid data that can be brought to bear on the subject. However if we do not extrapolate from incomplete data we would not be human, but computers. Unfortuanately there has been a recent conspiracy of silence regarding the real situation, so one has to scrape at every little bit of data one can get.

BTW D.O., for once your post actually made me chuckle. Keep it up.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
anonyME @ 11/5/2005 11:21:56 AM # Q
"However if we do not extrapolate from incomplete data we would not be human"

Surur. I tend to agree with you above. But only a fool would do such an extrapolation on a grossly incomplete data and post it on a public forum and hope that it would support his agenda.

So what is it with you and POS/WM market share, Surur? Everybody knows Palm is in trouble and Microsoft has a lot of money. And, then? The sky is falling? This PDA/smartphone thing is like pencil and paper. People buy as needed. Whatever is good and available at the time of purchase. If it's not good enough, then get another one.

Geesh, some people need to get a life. And, a wife and some kids.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
cervezas @ 11/5/2005 11:44:37 AM # Q
Adding to the uncertainty in drawing conclusions from these figures, there's also the fact that HTC makes devices that are completely out of the ballpark we're interested in here: vertical market devices, devices for telecom operators, service providers, etc. The statement was that "Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales," not of HTC's smartphone sales or PDA sales.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/5/2005 9:03:10 PM # Q
Well, you can have all sorts of fun when you do math like this.

For instance, let's say that the FUD campaign conducted with such viciousness here at PIC has caused (directly or indirectly) Palm to lose only 100,000 in lost units sales. If the average selling price is only $300 per unit, this comes to lost sales of $3,000,000.

Congratulations, Whiners, you have managed to lose more money for Palm than you will ever see in the whole of your miserable lives. But what did you gain from this?

Simony Math 101
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/5/2005 9:50:39 PM # Q
Well, you can have all sorts of fun when you do math like this.

For instance, let's say that the FUD campaign conducted with such viciousness here at PIC has caused (directly or indirectly) Palm to lose only 100,000 in lost units sales. If the average selling price is only $300 per unit, this comes to lost sales of $3,000,000.

Let's play a game.

It's called Simony Math 101.

Let's pretend that anyone actually pays attention to what is posted at Palminfocenter when deciding whether or not to purchase a Palm. In fact, let's assume 100,000 lemmings... umm... potential customers are frightened by Surur posting the odd link illustrating that PalmOS is in rough shape and that the Palm Companies™ are adrift, rudderless and captainless. Let's assume each lost sale would have been $300. OK. Math time:

Question 1

100,000 x $300,000 = ?

a) 3,000,000
b) 300,000,000
c) 3 billion
d) 30,000,000
e) I don't know. I'm just a stupid Palm Apologist that does math on my fingers and toes. Please stop laughing at me.

Congratulations, Whiners, you have managed to lose more money for Palm than you will ever see in the whole of your miserable lives. But what did you gain from this?

Let's keep playing. I now see Simony has changed her/his/its mind and wants to choose "e". Is that your final answer? Are you SURE? OK.

Now how much profit is Palm making on its devices? Back in 1999 it was a staggering 45%. Now it's just (an amazing) 30%. So how much profit did EVIL Mr. Surur et. al. STEAL from Palm's coffers with their dastardly "FUD campaign conducted with such viciousness here at PIC"? Math time:

Question 2

(Answer from Question 1) x (30)/(100) = ?

a) $900,000
b) $90,000,000
c) $900,000,000
d) $9,000,000
e) My head hurts. Can I have my bottle now Mommy?

Wow. It looks like The Bad People are costing Palm a LOT of money. I'll bet EVIL Bill Gates pays them a LOT of money to posts factual information to Palminfocenter. I wonder what Palm could do to stop The Bad People? Dr. Opinion/Jeff Kirvin: can you tell the class what you think Palm should do?

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/5/2005 10:36:28 PM # Q
> Let's pretend that anyone actually pays attention to what is posted at Palminfocenter when deciding whether or not to purchase a Palm. In fact, let's assume 100,000 lemmings... umm... potential customers are frightened by Surur posting the odd link illustrating that PalmOS is in rough shape and that the Palm Companies™ are adrift, rudderless and captainless.

If you think they don't pay attention, why do you incessantly continue your comedy rountine here? Bozo.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/5/2005 10:52:32 PM # Q
Answer the question, grasshopper.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
viqsi @ 11/5/2005 10:56:46 PM # Q
Don't mind him. He's just been bitter ever since Sony discovered his market segment is unprofitable.

--
Of course, I don't know how interesting any of this really is, but now you've got it in your brain cells so you're stuck with it. --Gary Larson
RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 1:16:02 AM # Q
> "...It looks like The Bad People are costing Palm a LOT of money..."

Not really. But it's a mindshare thing. Microdick has definitely got into the habit of sending shills to whine on competitors message boards. Quite preceisely what they hope to achieve is not clear. It's entirely possible that the only reason for the existence of the shills here is so that people running the microsuck mind**** on the MCSE message boards can link to voice-of-dumbness or adama posts on PIC to show how the competition is in "disarray". :)

> "...I'll bet EVIL Bill Gates pays them a LOT of money..."

No. Bill is very sensitive about getting what he pays for... if Bill was really running the show, we'd have shills with a little more smarts, range, and talent, right? :)

While the desperation and repetition of the shills here strongly suggests they are being paid, it's entirely possible they are just pitiful minions in the microsuck machine who have been told to post here by their supervisors. Suror and adama certainly seem to fit that mold. :)

> "...I wonder what Palm could do to stop The Bad People?..."

Palm already does what it needs to: producing better smartphones and PDAs than microsuck. Better, sleeker, cheaper devices, more applications, hotsync that actually works, vastly superior office integration (how ironic), and of course, Palm is actually profitable. The closure of wince division stongly suggests that Palm is doing the right thing. :)


------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 1:28:03 AM # Q
> "...why do you incessantly continue your comedy rountine here? Bozo..."

That's easy. Look at voice-of-dumbness's signature. He was a wanna-be day trader who overinvested in Palm back in the dotcom boom, he lost a lot of money, and he's still angry. I think Jeff Kiving gave him the "hot tip". Ha ha ha. :)



------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/6/2005 2:35:42 AM # Q
Answer the question, grasshopper.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 3:53:52 AM # Q
Simony, stop being so sensitive. Either these boards make a difference or they dont. We've had the honorable Marty Fouts and David Shlesinger from PalmSource come here, spouting garbage and then saying very directly that these boards are inconsequential. Who are you to argue? Its madness to imply that my postings here would cause Palm to lose 10% of their quarterly sales, when places like the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/29/AR2005102900130.html ) publish much more scathing articles to a gigantic audience, or Colligan standing on the same stage as Bill Gates telling us why WM was a better OS than POS for their new phone.

Simony, I know you would prefer a universe without critics, where Palm still sells 10 million 8MB green screen devices, but the world has moved on, and Palm has to compete on merrits. I've not said anything much bad about the Tx and Z22, as no reasonable person could argue with the great value. Let Palm compete for mindshare with great products, not by promoting a pollyanna attitude on the message boards.

And at least I can multiply.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Sam H @ 11/6/2005 5:58:50 AM # Q
Well, you can have all sorts of fun when you do math like this.

For instance, let's say that the FUD campaign conducted with such viciousness here at PIC has caused (directly or indirectly) Palm to lose only 100,000 in lost units sales. If the average selling price is only $300 per unit, this comes to lost sales of $3,000,000.

See D.O., this is what will happen to you if you skip math class to post on PIC.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:20:57 AM # Q
> "...spouting garbage and then saying very directly that these boards are inconsequential..."

You seem to be confused: that was voice-of-dumbness. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:24:36 AM # Q
> "...or Colligan standing on the same stage as Bill Gates telling us why WM was a better OS than POS for their new phone..."

Actually, Colligan simply stated that microsuck had invested substantially in Palm to create the device. It was kinda funny, Bill Gates looked really annoyed for a bit after Colligan spilled the beans. :)

I guess all along microsuck had been hoping to flip the spend into some kind of marketing buzz about wince. Of course, with the wince division being wound down and rolled into "entertainment", the wince treo has turned out to be nothing more than a huge embarassment for microsuck:

(1) No wince licencee was able to build a device that could compete with the Treo. Microsuck tried desperated to find another "Treo killer" for years before finally having to heavily fund their direct competitior just to have a chance of playing in the smartphone space. Hilarious. :)

(2) The wince Treo has cost microsuck millions, and its clear to insiders that microsuck is extremely unlikely to come close to recovering that investment before wince is obsoleted and replaced in late 2006/early 2007. It is well known in the industry that microsuck is planning to drop wince in favor of a mobile XP derivative in the 12-18 month time frame. :)

Yes, there remains the possibility of delays in all non-longhorn products if (as expected) longhorn fails internal quality checks in 2006 and microsuck begins to panic... Apple MacOSX on Intel will be shipping by 2006, and if Dell offers OSX on their PCs before longhorn ships, microsuck will drop from an A-player to B-player in core-product share in a single release. :)

These are really bad times for microsuck. OSX coming to PC, open source killing MS Office, Palm dominating in smartphone, google ruling web services, PalmSource creating an OS that makes wince irrelevant, and Sony leading in consoles. Its hard to find a single place where microsuck is safe. :)

Gotta love progress, right? :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 7:47:46 AM # Q

Yes, D.O., rant on and on, but to the point, is Simony mad to think my postings will turn away 100 000 POS sales? He's quite an admirer of your posting style, did you know?

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:57:03 AM # Q
It's called the "spanking the shills in public" writing style. I personally find it quite gratifying. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Timothy Rapson @ 11/6/2005 9:53:49 AM # Q
I hang around hoping for a TH55-featured POS model with real fonts, real files, and a competive value/hardware specs. I haven't much else to do all night so why not. It is a nice diversion to watch the goings on.
I don't like MS, because they offer poor products and abuse their position of owning the desktop OS market.
I no longer like POS, because they have squandered their lead in the market by actually offering worse products than they did when the Zire 71 was released. That is, with my number one desired feature being stability, I have to downgrade the OS on my Zire 72 so far that the faster processor and more RAM don't make it any better for me than the Z71 was.
I am watching the Nokia 770 very closely. Unless Palm does something completely out of character (like ship a full-featured, uncrippled TH55 style PDA that is rock solid stable like my Zire 71 and Mako were) I will likely be choosing between the Nokia 770 or the Axim X51v next Spring.
That won't be because I like MS, or Nokia, or dislike Palm. It won't be because of the rantings here (they are mostly for amusement, not buying decisions, even for a constant PDA site watcher like me). It will be because it offers real value to me in getting stuff done day to day.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Rome @ 11/6/2005 11:26:32 AM # Q
"All your critisims are accurate, though not necessarily correct. I would appreciate any more solid data that can be brought to bear on the subject. However if we do not extrapolate from incomplete data we would not be human, but computers. Unfortuanately there has been a recent conspiracy of silence regarding the real situation, so one has to scrape at every little bit of data one can get."

I found the above statement by Surur for be especially "interesting". We have numbers from a professional market research firm like Canalys and Surur chose not to believe them. Instead, he went on and came up with his own market share numbers based essentially on the following sentence:

"Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales,"

And surprise! His numbers came out strongly in favor of Microsoft. Conincidence? You be the judge.



RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Sam H @ 11/6/2005 11:48:18 AM # Q
We have numbers from a professional market research firm like Canalys

No, we don't. For some reason Canalys didn't break their latest numbers down by OS. That's why people are trying to extrapolate figures from other sources.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 11:57:04 AM # Q
Rome, if you have the actual q3 2005 numbers I would be really interested. Of course I would also have to see some references or credentials of some kind.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 12:51:12 PM # Q
> "...I will likely be choosing between the Nokia 770 or the Axim X51v..."

There's no choice: go Nokia. The advantage of chosing the Linux option is that later on you will be able to purchase an OS upgrade that provides the Palm Linux application stack and runs all your current applications. :)

Palm does have something like this in the works... I kinda expected we'd have heard more about it already, but perhaps they're gating their "leaks" on Palm Linux availability... :)
)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/6/2005 3:09:27 PM # Q
Answer the question, grasshopper.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/6/2005 3:11:58 PM # Q
Surur, your naivete is generally pretty charming, but not on this occassion. Rather than be distrated by you on this occassion, I'd prefer to see our little joker, The Vat of Refuse, answer the question I posed.

Timothy, don't you have any homework to do?

2008 Sales figures: Windows Mobile 99% PalmOS 1%
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 3:47:48 PM # Q
Answer the question, grasshopper.

Keep flailing, Simony. You're starting to sound quite pitiful. I (almost) feel bad for you..

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Jeff Kirvin/Dr Opinion:
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 4:02:51 PM # Q
> "...or Colligan standing on the same stage as Bill Gates telling us why WM was a better OS than POS for their new phone..."

Actually, Colligan simply stated that microsuck had invested substantially in Palm to create the device. It was kinda funny, Bill Gates looked really annoyed for a bit after Colligan spilled the beans. :)

You must have dreamt that part about Gates. I was actually at the press conference and throughout the whole production, Gates had a smug "I've now got the keys to the henhouse but I'll try not to look too smug and will instead appear earnest + sincere" look on his ugly maw. The press conference was videotaped and is on the web, so anyone can download and see for themselves.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2005/sep05/09-26MobilityPR.mspx

http://metahost.savvislive.com/microsoft/20050926/sfo_press_conference_20050926_300.asx

I guess all along microsuck had been hoping to flip the spend into some kind of marketing buzz about wince. Of course, with the wince division being wound down and rolled into "entertainment", the wince treo has turned out to be nothing more than a huge embarassment for microsuck:

I wonder why this "huge embarassment for microsuck" has caused so many Palm developers to indicate they feel we are now witnessing the beginning of the end of PalmOS. And I wonder why so many companies are drooling over the idea of Windows Mobile Treos...

(1) No wince licencee was able to build a device that could compete with the Treo. Microsuck tried desperated to find another "Treo killer" for years before finally having to heavily fund their direct competitior just to have a chance of playing in the smartphone space. Hilarious. :)

HTC seems to be doing a good job of making WinMob phones. It took Handspring over 4 years to get the Treo design right. It took Palm's Win Mob competitors half that time to copy the Treo 600. It will take half that time for the competition to then leave the PalmOS Treo in the dust. Welcome to Netscape 101. Population: A lot of battered and bruised companies (and FORMER companies) that have tried (and spectacularly failed) to beat Microsoft.

By the way, can you provide a reference to back up your claim that Microsoft had "to heavily fund their direct competitior [Palm]"? Didn't think so.

(2) The wince Treo has cost microsuck millions, and its clear to insiders that microsuck is extremely unlikely to come close to recovering that investment before wince is obsoleted and replaced in late 2006/early 2007. It is well known in the industry that microsuck is planning to drop wince in favor of a mobile XP derivative in the 12-18 month time frame. :)

Yet another (intentionally?) transparent lie, Jeff. Shame on you.

Yes, there remains the possibility of delays in all non-longhorn products if (as expected) longhorn fails internal quality checks in 2006 and microsuck begins to panic... Apple MacOSX on Intel will be shipping by 2006, and if Dell offers OSX on their PCs before longhorn ships, microsuck will drop from an A-player to B-player in core-product share in a single release. :)

So now you believe everyone is going to dump Windows desktops and switch to MacOS? Wow. Have you stopped taking your lithium, Kirvin?

These are really bad times for microsuck. OSX coming to PC, open source killing MS Office, Palm dominating in smartphone, google ruling web services, PalmSource creating an OS that makes wince irrelevant, and Sony leading in consoles. Its hard to find a single place where microsuck is safe. :)

"open source killing MS Office"? In what parallel universe is this happening? "Palm dominating in smartphone"? Yet another LIE. Symbian "dominates". Palm is an also-ran. "google ruling web services"? Really? Only if by "web-services" you mean free internet searches. "PalmSource creating an OS that makes wince irrelevant"? Where is that apocryphal PalmLinux, Jeff? It's still vaporware. In case you didn't know, a REAL, SHIPPING OS will beat a VAPORWARE OS, every time. "Sony leading in consoles"? Yes, but Microsoft came from NOWHERE to becoming a mjor player in this market in just a few years. They're just getting warmed up (like where Internet Explorer was in 1999). And they've got a killer new console out now that Sony and Nintendo won't be able to compete with for at least 6 - 12 months. That doesn't sound like a bad position to be in, now does it? Nice try, though, Kirvin.

Gotta love progress, right? :)

Indeed.

By the way, is Microsoft paying you to pose as a delusional Palm Apologist in an effort to smear ALL Palm supporters. Now THAT would be very clever of them.

TVoR.



------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Symbian 59.4% , WM 17.3%, Linux 16.8%, POS 3% (2009)
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 4:18:30 PM # Q
Too pesimistic VOR.

"According to IDC forecasts, by 2009 Symbian will control 59.4% of the worldwide converged mobile device market, with Microsoft Windows Mobile at 17.3% and Linux-based devices at 16.8%. The Palm OS will be somewhere at about 3% market share in 2009, IDC says. "
http://www.networkworld.com/newsletters/mobile/2005/0829mobile1.html
OR

"However, over time, ARCchart forecast that the share of other platforms will grow at the expense of Series 60. Windows Mobile Pocket PC and Smartphone devices will grow significantly, with a combined share of 25 percent by 2008. Palm devices will increase slightly, reaching 6 percent. "

http://www.arcchart.com/blueprint/print.asp?id=371&qtabs=99999

Some good reading here for Dr Opinion, with his constant talk about difficulty with development and backwards compatability.

"Microsoft has exerted a strong measure of control on device manufacturers to ensure compatibility on Windows Mobile devices, both Smartphone and Pocket PC, and that has paid off in a very high level of compatibility. The only issue raised by developers was customer confusion about the older versions of the platform, but there is a high level of confidence that an application developed and tested on one Windows Mobile Smartphone device would work on all other devices running the same version of the platform.

All mobile platform vendors will provide the centralised core support, but the developer ecosystem is the network of professional and hobbyist developers and the various formal and informal support channels which sit around this. The size of the ecosystem will directly impact the speed at which developers can bring an application to market. The report shows that, on a relative basis, Pocket PC has the largest ecosystem followed by Palm OS. The ecosystem for the two Windows Mobile platforms is about five times larger than that for the Symbian operating systems (Series 60 and UIQ)."

Surur

Crystal ball is getting clearer...
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 4:51:42 PM # Q
Too pesimistic VOR.

The 99%, 1% numbers were a joke, Surur. I'm actually shocked by the IDC prediction that PalmOS will be at just 3%. I would expect the number to be more like 10% if PalmLinux is delivered as a stable full-featured OS in the next 12 - 18 months. On the other hand, if PalmLinux ends up being another Cobalt/Copeland/BeOS, 1% might actually be too generous a number for Palm's 2009 marketshare. Any OS that can't multitask in 2009 is going to be well on its way to following the dodo into extinction.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Sales figures:Commodore Vic 20 80%, Coleco Adam 20%!
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 5:09:36 PM # Q
One other thing, Surur. If you know anything about how these forecasts from IDC, Gartner and similar companies are created, you'll know not to take them too seriously. Someone with the intelligence of Jeff Kirvin/Dr Opinion working for these companies will spend a few days researching historical trends in an industry, look at upcoming products and then will sit down and pull a bunch of numbers out of their a$$ to create a report that's favorable to whoever the market research company will be selling the report to. How many years did Gartner keep telling us that Palm was "about to be" crushed by WinCE? ;-O

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Currently US: POS 66%, WM 33% , WorldWide:POS 33%, WM 66%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 5:18:28 PM # Q
I think this article explains why the mostly American Palm users can not really understand why anyone can say PalmOS is failing. As Dr Opinion keeps saying, its the dominant smartphone platform - IN USA. Worldwide is a poor third.

"Known mostly for consumer mobile phones, in the U.S. the Symbian OS has 24% of the market for converged mobile devices, compared with 21.3% for the Palm OS and 9.2% for Microsoft (both Pocket PC Phone Edition and Smartphone OS are included in their numbers). Worldwide, Microsoft takes second place, with 12.7% of the market, compared to first-place Symbian’s 55.9% and Palm OS’s 6.3%. "

http://www.networkworld.com/newsletters/mobile/2005/0829mobile1.html

Now parochialism is fine for many things, but the home town view just does not work for phones. The USA has only abut 180 million mobile phone subscribers. The world ADDED 350 million subscribers last year. There's about 1.4 billion mobile phone users in the world. Thats 1 400 000 000 users, and growing fast. Being the winner in the US is rather meaningless, as its one of the smallest markets in the world, only about 2%. Its telling that WM soundly beats POS ...... in regional localisation ability.

But at least it explains Dr Opinion's views and attitude. Come from a small town?

Surur

viqsi, Honey:
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 5:26:32 PM # Q
Don't mind him. He's just been bitter ever since Sony discovered his market segment is unprofitable.

Stay out of this one, Girlfriend. [Unless you want to get a SEVERE (carpet)licking from me later.]

By the way, Sony's departure had little to do with the CLIE line's profitability in its 4 years of existence. And as someone who has the pleasure of using an OLED-screened VZ90 daily, I'm actually quite grateful that Sony created such good hardware for me to enjoy. Now if CLIEs had never existed and I was stuck using some primitive, buggy, piece of sh*t Palm like you probably are - THEN I'd be bitter.

You GO Girrrrrrrl!

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 5:47:18 PM # Q
How many years did Gartner keep telling us that Palm was "about to be" crushed by WinCE? ;-O

Well, those who ignored Gartner and based their platform on POS may now feel sorry that they only have one significant vendor for their devices e.g. for convergent devices its the Treo or nothing.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Simony @ 11/6/2005 6:07:05 PM # Q
Answer the question, grasshopper.

Gartner = B.S.
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 6:19:51 PM # Q
Well, those who ignored Gartner and based their platform on POS may now feel sorry that they only have one significant vendor for their devices e.g. for convergent devices its the Treo or nothing.

Surur

True, but that's not the point. The point is that their predictions were wrong REPEATEDLY, for SEVERAL years (even though eventually they were right). ANYONE could have predicted that Microsoft would eventually beat Palm. That's not hard to figure out. A good forcaster is able to accurately predict both what will happen AND when it will occur. Gartner et. al. are in the business of selling B.S. wild guesses that they try to legitimize as being accurate, reliable "forecasts". In reality, there are probably hundreds of Palminfocenter posters (including you) that could EASILY create more accurate "forecasts" than any of the drivel spewed by Gartner et. al.

TVoR

By the way Surur, while it's fun to debate, are you not starting to feel sorry for slow-witted Palmyannas like Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin, Simony, etc.? Debating them is like shooting fish in a barrel or taking candy from a sickly, crippled baby - fun at first ;-O, but then after a while it seems somewhat pointless. [But eventually, one of them says something so stupid again that you just HAVE to reach out and biotchslap them (even MORE) senseless for the nth time...]

Enjoy. And be careful not to break your toys, Surur.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 6:20:46 PM # Q
> "...I think this article explains why the mostly American Palm users can not really understand why anyone can say PalmOS is failing..."

You can spin it how you like, the fact remains that Palm has beaten microsuck on their home turf, dominating the US market and making wince the comedy option -- your tech-ignorant buddy only got a new wince phone because he got suckered at Best Buy, and everyone gets a little embarrassed for him when he tries to show "how good it is". :)

Palm decided to kick microsuck ass in the US first. This was very smart: microsuck was never going to do well in Europe or Asia, since the microsuck brand is pretty much reviled everywhere outside the US. It's reviled here too, but it's nothing compared to how the Europeans and Asians feel. :)

Palm is a smaller company than microsuck, and picks its battles. Microsuck has been soundly thrashed in the smartphone market, and now Palm is taking the battle to Symbian in Europe. :)

Whine away, but Palm is not actually even competing with microsuck in the smartphone arena -- microsuck is *irrelevant* in smartphone: domestically, and internationally. :)


------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
AdamaDBrown @ 11/6/2005 6:51:58 PM # Q
As a sidebar, those 66/33 figures only represent phone devices. If anyone has the complete marketshare statistics for the US, that would be interesting to see.

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 7:08:36 PM # Q

Well VOR, its very easy to argue when you have the facts on your side. Its a pity that were not seeing more factual>/b> posts with the opposite view, to liven things up.

Surur

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:08:52 PM # Q
> "...Well, those who ignored Gartner and based their platform on POS may now feel sorry..."

Ha ha ha! Of course, the suckers who bet the farm that wince-phone would rule are *definitely* feeling sorry. :)

Ha ha ha! :)

What suckers! :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
ChiA @ 11/6/2005 10:33:10 PM # Q
Dr Opinion saidYou can spin it how you like, the fact remains that Palm has beaten microsuck on their home turf

Yes, if it weren't for PalmSource buying Microsoft, Microsoft would be filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy now.

NOT

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog" - Dwight D. Eisenhower

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 12:02:28 AM # Q
I think we can safely assume that ChiA stands for "completely and hopelessly irrelevant, actually". :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
ChiA @ 11/7/2005 10:50:36 AM # Q
Dr Opinion said I think we can safely assume that ChiA stands for "completely and hopelessly irrelevant, actually"

Well, if it turns you on, by all means assume whatever you wish to assume.
Just don't whine about personal attacks next time they come your way, as you've done so in the past.

Hypocrite

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog" - Dwight D. Eisenhower

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 11:36:51 AM # Q
"...Yes, if it weren't for PalmSource buying Microsoft, Microsoft would be filing for Chapter 11..."

Dude, don't get so het up. If you can share with the rest of the world the slightest connection between your bizarre statement above, and the obvious fact that Palm has beaten microsoft in the smartphone market, go right ahead. :)

Otherwise, just accept that you were hopelessly irrelevant... it's not personal, it's a fact. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
ChiA @ 11/7/2005 12:18:05 PM # Q
Dr Opinion said: your bizarre statement above

If anyone's an authority on bizarre statements, it's you.

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog" - Dwight D. Eisenhower

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 1:26:49 PM # Q
Stop trying to change the subject. :)

Palm has *thrashed* microsoft in smartphone. This is an amazing accomplishment, considering that microsuck has essentially been giving wince away for free since its inception, actually providing free engineering support to licensees in a desperate attempt to build share. :)

The market has spoken: people want Palm, they want Palm OS, and microsoft is finally listening, and getting rid of wince. Look for wince division to be rolled into microsucks "entertainment" group shortly, with many wince engineers "repurposed" to begin work on an amazingly "innovative" X-box Personal type device. :)

Just like microsuck... "leading" the market with "innovation". :)

>spank< :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
ChiA @ 11/7/2005 1:33:23 PM # Q
Dr Opinion said: Palm has thrashed microsuck blah blah blah.
Microsuck getting rid of WinCE blah blah blah

Just like I said, when it comes to bizarre statements, you're the number one authority here.

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog" - Dwight D. Eisenhower

RE: Sales figures WM 80% POS 20%
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 3:32:23 PM # Q
Do you really think that microsuck is going to keep around a money-losing product like wince, now that an XP derivative has been ported to mobile devices? :)

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that wince can't compete against mobile linux: wince is too fat, too slow, too buggy, has too few applications, and has too few developers. Wince could barely keep up with Palm, let alone the entire linux community! :)

Duh! :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

Reply to this comment

$200 Treo

Captain Hair @ 11/4/2005 11:40:17 PM # Q
To be honest, this excites me more than a new high-end Treo:

Palm will also launch a line of mid-market Treos, with ASPs of about $200, later in fiscal 2006.

"People who think they're smart annoy those of us who are."

RE: $200 Treo
hotpaw4 @ 11/5/2005 1:51:27 AM # Q
What would they have to leave out to get the price that low? Hopefully the nores camera. What else? SD slot? Bluetooth? Keypad?

RE: $200 Treo
Patrick @ 11/5/2005 2:37:35 AM # Q
Phone?

RE: $200 Treo
asiayeah @ 11/5/2005 2:48:30 AM # Q
I remembered PalmOne or Palm has been talking about a low-end Treo for almost 2 years. Are they really coming out in 2006?

--
With great power comes great responsiblity.
RE: $200 Treo
DerNik @ 11/5/2005 5:20:48 AM # Q
To be honest, the Treo 650 will become a midrange device beginning of next year.

Nokia and SonyEricsson preparing the launch a potential TreoKiller for the first months of next year. Both of this devices will support Wifi and UMTS (maybe EVDO in US). This is what i would like to see in a Treo soon.

This shows how the market will split between low-end and high-end. My wish is, that Palm will not do their own split as they did for the handheld devices.

RE: $200 Treo
AdamaDBrown @ 11/5/2005 2:50:23 PM # Q
Forgive me if I scoff at the phrases "SonyEricsson" and "Treo Killer" in the same sentence. Most of SE's smartphones are in the $900 range, which is not conducive to mass sale, and their little flip-out keyboards are, at least in my opinion, rather ridiculous.

RE: $200 Treo 200? Better late than never? We'll see.
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/5/2005 5:18:53 PM # Q
Forgive me if I scoff at the phrases "SonyEricsson" and "Treo Killer" in the same sentence. Most of SE's smartphones are in the $900 range, which is not conducive to mass sale, and their little flip-out keyboards are, at least in my opinion, rather ridiculous.

The P910a was actually a well-made phone, but the upcoming P990 is a confused mess that tries to do everything and ends up falling flat on its face. Out with the landscape screen and comfortable jogdial, in with the (barely) Treo 600-style keyboard and videoconferencing ability.

What amazes me is that all Sony Ericsson had to do was copy the basic features + form factor of the Treo 600 but make it smaller, lighter and better-constructed. This should have been a cakewalk. Instead they've taken 1 step forward and 2 steps back. (At least their "regular" phones are still killer designs.)

I keep saying it but it's true: the first company to produce one of LiveFaith's designs will have the perfect phone. HTC has a model coming out in a couple months that is close (too bad it runs Windows Mobile) and Sony Ericsson will introduce the so-called "P600" in the Spring 2006 at a price that will get them a lot more sales.

Those ba$tards at Samsung were close to getting it right before they gave up (shades of Sony...). I fully expect that Palm's "Treo 200" (my name, not their's) will not have the quality needed to compete with the top dogs, but maybe Palm will finally prove me wrong. Hope springs eternal...


TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: $200 Treo
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 1:11:35 AM # Q
> "...the upcoming P990 is a confused mess that tries to do everything and ends up falling flat on its face..."

You mean SonyEricsson has produced a wince device? How tragic. :)



------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: $200 Treo
hkklife @ 11/6/2005 10:34:12 AM # Q
If someone can produce one (or even better, both) of the following handhelds, good things will happen:
1. A unit with TX-level features (wi-fi AND BT, decent amount of RAM) as well as an integrated cellular radio that's DATA-centric and COMPLETELY disregards voice functionality. That way you can have access to your data anywhere, no matter the connectivity options. I've been told by more than a few execs/management types that they refuse to use their BlackBerries for voice because they feel/look dumb holding that brick up to their ears and/or they prefer a sleek flip phone.

Yes, it's redundant. But you cannot argue with user preferences. If someone wants to carry a "data" PDA and a small "voice" cell phone and pay for two plans then by all means let them do it.

2. As Voice said, a Pat Horne-style 320*480 smartphone. Either relegate the hard buttons to nothing more than what the TX has OR have a very small phone keypad (1-9,0, *, #). Leave everything else (possibly including send, end etc) to soft buttons onscreen. The SSS (small square screen) and 320*320 on the Treo are still dealbreakers for me. As well as, of course, the <32mb RAM. Give me a Treo with Bluetooth, EVDO and 320*480 and I'll be all over it.

For the record, a "perfect" Treo lineup would be as follows:

Treo 200: 32mb or 64mb NVFS, no camera or a cheap 640*480 one. Bluetooth 1.1. 320*320 screen like the 650 or possibly a lesser quality 320*320 ala the original T|T. No problems powering a unit like this with FrakenGarnet. Essentially this will have specs somewhere between a Treo 600 and a 650 but in a MUCH more stylish & compact formfactor that can be cheaply produced en masse. This model is ripe for incremental upgrades every 6 months-1 year to keep it "fresh" for the carriers & customers alike. A flip Treo, regardless of specs, would also be likely to be quite a hit. American CDMA customers in particular seem to be really tiring of candybar phones.

Treo 700p: Basically what the rumors mentioned a few months ago (larger 320*320 screen, smaller antenna, BT 1.2, 1mp camera, EVDO). Enlarging the physical screen size and reducing antenna size are crucial elements here. FrankenGarnet, as long as it's as stable as the TX, would stil suffice here.

Treo 800p: 320*480, wi-fi/Bluetooth 1.2 or 2.0/EVDO, 128mb RAM. This would almost certainly have to run some sort of Linux solution and/or be offered in a 800w variant with 640*480. I'd still worry about cost & battery life. THIS would be the Treo that'd have the specs to make even the die-hard PDA users like myself convert.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

RE: $200 Treo
AdamaDBrown @ 11/6/2005 6:46:41 PM # Q
I agree on the idea of a data-centric cellular radio. Having "everywhere" internet access without needing to tangle with a BT phone would be a big selling point. Partner with a carrier like Cingular, and offer it as an optional add-on with the purchase of the device. $15 or $20 a month, first month free. You'd hook them big time.

RE: $200 "Treo 200"
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 6:56:42 PM # Q
Exactly. A European CLIE TH55 (Wi-Fi + Bluetooth) with an included cellphone radio, 128 MB RealRAM™, BackupMan in the ROM + an OLED screen is close to perfect in my books. Sell it for $499 with a 2 year $15/month unlimited data plan for users who also have a regular cellphone contract with the carrier (or $30 unlimited data plan if they have no cellphone).

It's truly amazing that no one has built such a device yet. I believe we'll see such a device (unfortunately, without the OLED screen) in 2006, but this really should have been done YEARS ago.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: $200 Treo
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:46:27 PM # Q
> "...A European CLIE TH55..."

Idiot! Get over it! :)

The Clie TH55 was an interesting niche device for the time, with a 123MHz CPU and 32MB RAM, priced ridiculously high, and it failed. Even back then, the Tungsten-C had *much* better specs and a *much* better price point. Move on. :)

Everyone *else* has moved on, bought T|Xs, and you're boring us. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

Debunking even MORE lies by Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin...
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 8:33:03 PM # Q
> "...A European CLIE TH55..."

Idiot! Get over it! :)

The Clie TH55 was an interesting niche device for the time, with a 123MHz CPU and 32MB RAM, priced ridiculously high, and it failed. Even back then, the Tungsten-C had *much* better specs and a *much* better price point. Move on. :)

Everyone *else* has moved on, bought T|Xs, and you're boring us. :)

Kirvin, the more shrill you get, the more pathetic you prove yourself to be. Why do you continue to post so many lies that are so obvious everyone? Will your little misinformation game ever end? Inquiring minds want to know™.

It appears that the treponemes have finally completely ravaged your brain. Since your current state of mind (tabes dorsalis with concommittant Korsakoff's syndrome) is the root of your bizarre posts, I'll simply correct the delusional rant you had posted here. First, let's remind you what a poorly-made piece of plasticy junk the Tungsten C was. It listed for $499, had mono audio, no camera, no Bluetooth, corrupting MAC address, no built-in microphone, crappy Small Square Screen, cheap plastic keyboard, fragile case, made clicking sounds (eventually fixed after the THIRD ROM update!), and tended to die inexplicably after a year of use. In fact, the Tungsten C's only redeeming qualities were Wi-Fi and 51 MB of RealRAM™.

The TH55, on the other hand listed for a very reasonable $399 and quite simply made (and STILL makes) ALL of Palm's PDAs look like utter crap by comparison. Great screen, Amazing battery life, stable Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, excellent browser, slick PDF viewer, camera (and camcorder after "borrowing the Movie Recorder app from a UX50!), voice recorder, MP3 player, Flash player, innovative new PIM apps, 30 MB available RAM, rugged.

Here are two excellent reviews that illustrate why many PDA veterans feel the TH55 is STILL the best traditional form factor PalmOS PDA ever released.

http://www.mobile-review.com/pda/review/sony-th55-en.shtml

http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=6604




So much for your most recent LIE that "the Tungsten-C had *much* better specs and a *much* better price point" than the TH55...

That was fun. Let's play again tomorrow.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: $200 Treo
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 9:57:32 PM # Q
> "...let's remind you what a poorly-made piece of plasticy junk [...] and tended to die inexplicably after a year of use..."

Duh! My Tungsten-C works perfectly fine, is no more "plasticy" than any other cell-phone or PDA on the market, doesn't have a scratch on it, and the keyboard is *excellent*... you can actually touch-type on it. Idiot. :)

> "...[The T|C] listed for $499, [...]...The TH55, on the other hand listed for a very reasonable $399..."

The Tungsten-C had been out for a *year* before the TH55 finally came along. At that time the T|C could be purchased for less than $399. I'm sure you just "forgot", right? :)

> "...the Tungsten-C had *much* better specs..."

OK, lets do the comparison without all the FUD and garbage. :)

(1) CPU: T|C 416Mhz -vs- TH55 123MHz ===> Winner = T|C
(2) RAM: T|C 64MB -vs- TH55 32MB ===> Winner = T|C
(3) Expansion: T|C SD ---- TH55 Memory Stick ===> Winner = T|C
(4) Screen: T|C 320x320 ---- TH55 320x480 ===> Winner = TH55

Sure, the TH55 had a toy camera and a mike built in, but geek-candy definitely didn't make up for the weak CPU, small memory, and absurd proprietary expansion. :)

The only redeeming feature of the TH55 was the larger screen, but it lacked a proper landscape mode --- the T|3 was already out by then with a *proper* landscape mode. :)

All in all, the TH55 was a niche device. It lacked the power of the T|C which had been around for a *year* already, and added the larger screen of the T|3 without properly executing landscape mode. :)

Result: TH55 failed. Sony failed. :)

Move on. :)



------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: $200 Treo
LiveFaith @ 11/7/2005 10:35:58 AM # Q
*** I keep saying it but it's true: the first company to produce one of LiveFaith's designs will have the perfect phone. HTC has a model coming out in a couple months that is close (too bad it runs Windows Mobile) and Sony Ericsson will introduce the so-called "P600" in the Spring 2006 at a price that will get them a lot more sales. ***

VR. My hero!

Here's what HTC needs to bring. Should be called the SMTM-8215. SMTM = Show Me The Money! :D
http://www.churchoflivingfaith.com/images/htc8215.jpg

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

Pat Horne - Treo architect?
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/7/2005 11:36:35 PM # Q
*** I keep saying it but it's true: the first company to produce one of LiveFaith's designs will have the perfect phone. HTC has a model coming out in a couple months that is close (too bad it runs Windows Mobile) and Sony Ericsson will introduce the so-called "P600" in the Spring 2006 at a price that will get them a lot more sales. ***

VR. My hero!

;-O

But seriously, Pat your designs are precisely what Palm needs to get into production. You should post a summary of all your best designs on a webpage and include a link to it in your signature. Maybe someone at Palm might finally wake up and see it.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Reply to this comment

Hollywood and Lowrider

Gekko @ 11/5/2005 6:23:03 PM # Q
From Engadget -

Other deets on new Treos and HTC surface
Posted Nov 4, 2005, 6:10 PM ET by Ryan Block
Related entries: Cellphones

We also just got some more news about what’s going on with the Treos, this time not only from Palm’s side of the game, but also from HTC’s. According to a leaked analyst report from a very well known firm that we got our hands on, Palm plans switching large amounts of ODM orders from HTC to Inventec Appliance in late Q1 2006, with expectations of eventually primarily partnering with Inventec for device-making. According to the analyst report, Treos account for 15-20% of HTC’s device sales, which is very interesting — but what’s even more interesting are the details about two new Treos probably being planned with Inventec. The first is codenamed “Hollywood,” and is supposedly going to be a very thin 3G device with no external antenna; the second is the “Lowrider” (we’ll save you the obligatory War reference), which could well be the same lower end consumer device we just heard about from Caris & Co.


http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000107066688/



RE: Hollywood and Lowrider
Gekko @ 11/5/2005 6:24:53 PM # Q

sorry - i missed that surur already posted this.



Reply to this comment

Palm Dominates in Installed Base

Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:42:57 AM # Q
Note that microsuck sales are very irregular. Wince devices rarely achieve any momentum in the market, but sales of wince boxes sometimes spike from time to time when a new wince box is released. Microsuck shills like to point to these spikes as if they are somehow indicative of something. They're not. :)

Let's be very clear: "numbers of wince boxes shipped this quarter" is a really stupid measurement point. The core factor of viability for any OS is the size of the installed base, and specifically the size of the binary-compatible installed base. Network effect is the only thing that matters here. :)

The important thing to note here is that wince has generally broken binary compatability vertically, with each new release, and horizontally, across wince devices made by different manufacturers. The net result is that for a particular wince OS application shipped today, there is a *tiny* installed base of devices that can support that application. Absolutely tiny. :)

From time to time developers start to develop for wince, then are horrified at how few people actually buy wince software... well, this is why... the wince installed base is just too small. :)

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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 7:55:10 AM # Q
D.O., I'm going to try and engage with you one more time on this specific issue. What do you believe is the installed base for POS, and what do you believe is the installed base for Win CE products. Please provide links as evidence, not just Opinion.

And you know how the saying goes, if you cant put up...

Surur

So Palm does NOT Dominates in Installed Base?
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 8:52:46 AM # Q
An hour later, no response. Are you utterly unable to support your Opinions, dear Dr?

Surur

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 12:45:16 PM # Q
Sorry mate, I was sleeping. Right now I'm going to jump in the shower, grab some brekkies, and pop down the street to thank God for sending his avenging angels of Palm to keep the wince marketshare so small. :)

We'll tackle the numbers thing a little later, howsat? :)

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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

PalmOS platform is in hospital and not doing well
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/6/2005 5:48:13 PM # Q
Sorry mate, I was sleeping.

Were also sleeping when you wrote the original post? Or do you just like to LIE?

Right now I'm going to jump in the shower,

After all that B.S. you've spewed here, I hope you're able to scrub it all off yourself. Make sure to gargle for a few minutes with some bleach as well.

grab some brekkies, and pop down the street to thank God for sending his avenging angels of Palm to keep the wince marketshare so small. :)

In your religion, is it consideded a sin to LIE? Why do you post so many LIES here? And based on PalmOS's recent declining marketshare it sounds like those "avenging angels" are asleep on the job.

We'll tackle the numbers thing a little later, howsat? :)

Translation: "I'll post some more LIES later."
Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin:
Anything you say will be quickly and easily disproven by Surur. Over the past 2 years, Windows Mobile has actually been better at maintaining compatibility than Palm has. Palm is now the one breaking apps with every (minor) OS revision, as angry developers and end users are only too well aware. (T5 or LifeDrive, anyone?)

Boasting about total # of PalmOS devices sold since 1996 is also MEANINGLESS, since the majority of these PDAs are either in a landfill or forgotten in the back of a drawer. How many people have upgraded their Palms over the years and simply put the old ones in a closet? These unused Palms merely pad a meaningless number. Unfortunately, no one has stats on how many unique active users there are by platform. I'd suggest you look at the data from PDA download sites to get a (rough) feel for how the platforms are doing in terms of the size of the user base that is purchasing software. I believe someone (Surur?) recenltly posted a link to that effect. Looks like you've ALREADY lost another argument...

TVoR



------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 7:11:52 PM # Q
> "...Were also sleeping when you wrote the original post?..."

Duh! I woke up at o'dark hundred, drank some OJ, thoroughly debunked some shill rubbish on PIC in about 30 seconds, and went back to bed, sleeping the sleep of the righteous. Ha ha ha. :)

> "...In your religion, is it consideded a sin to LIE?..."

Yes... and in fact, by debunking your trivial and obvious falsehoods, I'm getting all these special heaven-points I can cash in for free harps and **** later. Thanks mate! :)

> "...[whine, whine, installed base doesn't matter, whine, whine]..."

Don't be a wad. Installed base is all that matters. Installed base is who upgrades to T|Xs. Installed base is who upgrades to Treos. Installed base is who buys Palm applications. You really just don't get it, do you? :)

Do you actually have a clue what's gone wrong with wince? Why there's few applications? Why informed people hate the platform? Why it has never made money? :)

The wince people never realized that installed base was what mattered. They thought it was "features". Idiots. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
sr4 @ 11/6/2005 8:04:22 PM # Q

On the contrary, I credit the success of the Treo almost exclusively on the POS installed base upgrading to the only available POS convergent solution. Thats why the Treo has not grown the POS market, but just kept it stable. This may however be the last gasp of this resource. You can only tap that well so many times.

Surur

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
hkklife @ 11/6/2005 8:10:59 PM # Q
Or, more succinctly, Surur, suckle a single teat until it's dry, withered, and eventually rots off.

That's what the wailing Treo spawn are doing to the aged mother Palm OS.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

RE: Palm Dominates in Installed Base
Dr Opinion @ 11/6/2005 10:28:29 PM # Q
Keep whining, guys: the fact is that Palm dominates smartphone, and wince is irrelevant in that space. It's good to be the king. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
Reply to this comment

Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!

sr4 @ 11/7/2005 10:56:43 AM # Q

As we know, those estimates were based largely on wild speculation and small nuggets of fact. I therefore present an updated estimate, based on some further numbers I dug up.

I found a ppt presentation on http://smartphonesummit.com/presentations.php which detail some q2 2005 numbers from Gartner, which actually also include MS and Palm Smartphones. They give the Q2 2005 situation as 1.12 milliion POS devices, vs 2.22 million WM devices. Thats 33.5% POS vs 64.5% WM.

Using published data from WM "datacentric" devices from Gartner, ( http://www.windowsfordevices.com/news/NS8408029005.html ) we get 1,693471 WM devices sold Q3 2005. The question is then, how many WM smartphones were sold. We have gartner data from q1 2005 which places it at 378 000 WM smartphones sold ( http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,1839158,00.asp ) and the ppt presentation referenced above puts q2 2005 figures at 566 400. Thats a 50% Quarter on Quarter increase! If we asume no increase from q2 to q3, that comes to 2259871 WM devices sold. If we (reasonably) assume the 50% growth rate continued, we get 2543071. WM devices sold.

POS overall device sales have been static, so I will continue to use the POS Q2 2005 numbers of 1120000.

Therefore, for the lower bound, we get 32.8% POS, 66.2% WM. Assuming continuing growth of WM smartphone we get 30.5% POS, 69.5 % WM.

Q.E.D.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 3:42:23 PM # Q
Surur, there's no need to play FUD with the numbers. It's really simple, actually. :)

If wince was doing even remotely well, microsuck would just *publish* the numbers. The fact that microsuck deliberately hides their numbers proves categorically that they are not doing well. :)

If you come to a market share breakout that cannot explain why microsuck hides their wince numbers, and why the wince division is being folded into "entertainment", your conclusion is almost certainly wrong. :)

Simple, really. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/7/2005 4:03:13 PM # Q

D.O., I really hate wasting words on you, as you never listen. But for other readers:

MS makes software, not like Palm, but like PalmSource. Do not confuse these two companies (like D.O. keeps doing)

Now in the last quarter of PalmSource's results, they made $15 million in revenue (16% down Year on Year) from $18 million last year. They made a $2 million loss. They only sold 1.2 million licenses.
http://www.palmsource.com/press/2005/092105_q1earnings.html

MS on the other hand made made $74 million in revnue, up 50% year on year from $49 million. They also made a $2 million loss, but sold more than 2 million licenses, at obviously a higher premium than Palmsource.

http://www.brighthand.com/article/Microsoft_Results_Q3_05?site=

PalmSource used to be a public company, and MS certainly is, so their financial data is openly available. Exact numbers of shipped units require harder work, but as I've shown, its avilable for those who go looking.

D.O. If you made it this far, try and get an education before posting more nonsense.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 4:38:31 PM # Q
Let's get right down to business... :)

(1) Your "two million" number and "obviously a higher premium" comment are junk. :)

Let's have a look at the 10-Q on edgar:
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312505209978/d10q.htm

> "...In the three months ended September 30, 2005, revenue for Windows Embedded operating systems increased $12 million [...] and revenue for Windows Mobile software increased $11 million..."

Fascinating. So quarter-on-quarter the majority of "wince" growth is coming from windows embedded applications, not "Windows Mobile". :)

(2) We will (sadly) not be receiveing future wince reporting from microsoft, since wince division is being rolled into the "entertainment" division. :)

Microsoft has clearly taken advantage of this situation by booking future revenues now in order to bolster these final reported wince numbers. "Go out with a bang", so to speak. Pretty pathetic, considering that they still couldn't break even. :)



------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/7/2005 5:20:49 PM # Q
Wow!! An actual link from D.O. Why did you not post the whole paragraph?

Mobile and Embedded Devices revenue growth for the three months ended September 30, 2005 was primarily due to unit volume increases in all major product lines, especially Windows Mobile software sales and Windows Embedded operating systems. Increased revenue for Windows Mobile software was primarily driven by increased market demand for connected mobile devices such as phone-enabled PDAs and Smartphones, and continued with slower growth in volume shipments for standalone PDAs. The increase in Windows Embedded revenue was due to our operating system being included in new product designs for both new and existing customers. In the three months ended September 30, 2005, revenue for Windows Embedded operating systems increased $12 million or 57% and revenue for Windows Mobile software increased $11 million or 41%.

Mobile and Embedded Devices operating loss for the three months ended September 30, 2005 decreased primarily due to an increase in revenue and a reduction in sales and marketing expense. This improvement was partially offset by increased salary and benefit costs from increased headcount.

We expect revenue for Mobile and Embedded Devices to continue to grow in fiscal year 2006 driven by an overall increase in customer demand for connectivity, and an increase in the number of new devices being offered by OEMs and mobile operators incorporating Windows Mobile software and Windows Embedded operating systems.

So the two areas are both growing well, and they only made a loss because the are growing, vs laying of 16% of their workforce.

As to your theory regarding padding the revenue, did you know Mobile and Embedded made $90 million in revenue the quarter before? A lot of padding going on there, isn't it?

Anyway, its clear WM raise more revenue than POS, and is growing much stronger. BTW, the department will continue to have its income broken out in its new home also. The shareholders would want to know what their investment is doing, don't you know?

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/7/2005 6:17:59 PM # Q
BTW, elementary algebra will show you that the majority of the M and E income comes from WM side ($37.8 million) and less ($33 million) from Embedded Windows.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/7/2005 7:11:15 PM # Q
> "...Why did you not post the whole paragraph?..."

Because it's not relevant. :)

> "...So the two areas are both growing well..."

As long as we agree that you willfully misled everyone by suggesting that "Windows Mobile" generated anywhere near $73MM last Q. :)

>spank< :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/7/2005 7:28:24 PM # Q
MS on the other hand made made $74 million in revenue, up 50% year on year from $49 million. They also made a $2 million loss, but sold more than 2 million licenses, at obviously a higher premium than PalmSource.

I don't see the word WM in that sentence at all. Maybe you are the one who is easily misled?

The simple fact remains that WM earns at least twice what POS earns from the same niche. Your grasping at straws has always been really pathetic.

Surur

The referee should stop this contest before Kirvin is killed
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/7/2005 9:38:27 PM # Q
As pathetic as Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin is, even he (probably) does not deserve to get biotchslapped to death.

Surur: The smart cat toys with the mouse for AGES before killing it. More fun that way. But perhaps it's time someone puts Dr Opinion/Jeff Kirvin out of his misery. That would be the most humane thing to do...

Reading these threads have been like watching the carnage from a train wreck. Horribly tragic, yet I cannot look away.

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 12:20:08 AM # Q
> "...MS on the other hand made made $74 million in revenue, up 50% year on year from $49 million..."

I've provided the link to Microsuck's 10-Q proving that the numbers you quoted were grossly inflated:

(1) You included revenues from embedded XP and MS MapPoint, and suggested these could be compared with PalmSource revenue. :)

(2) You quoted a fictional license count, with the implication that we could assume these were Windows Mobile licenses, and not XP embedded, MS MapPoint, etc., and suggesting this license count could be compared with PalmSource. :)

I'd suggest you endeavor to be more accurate in the future, in case people begin to think that whenever you're posting this garbage, you're actually deliberately attempting to mislead people... you know, like a paid microsoft shill trying to spread FUD? :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 2:36:00 AM # Q

VOR, you are right, he's still not understanding the numbers. He does not understand fractions and algebra. Probably did not finish school. So sloooowwww....

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 9:33:19 AM # Q
The numbers are perfectly clear. You tried to compare PalmSource's revenue to wince division's $74MM revenue, but that figure included XP embedded and other products. You tried the same thing with license counts. From your hostility, I guess this was not honest ignorance or stupidity... this was a deliberate attempt to mislead. :)

I wonder how often your posts contain deliberate attempts to mislead? I'm sure many people suspected that you were not being entirely truthful... now we know for sure. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
marcol @ 11/8/2005 9:39:38 AM # Q
Surur, Thanks for the link. I presume that the data you're referring to comes from the "Industry Analyst Discussion" presentation. This is my first post here and I'm not keen on getting involved in the acrimonious side in what seems to be a long-running debate, but I'm sure there are at least a few people like me who've been quietly lurking and would just like a look at the data. To that end I've abstracted the figures from slide five of the Industry Analyst Discussion" presentation. It's headed 'Market Shares by OS, 2Q05' and the source is "Gartner Dataquest".

I'm genuinely sorry if this has been posted before, but to me at least it's pretty interesting.

Smartphones (11.8 M):

Symbian 65.0%
Linux 25.8%
Microsoft 4.8%
Palm OS 3.7%
RIM 0.7%

PDAs (3.6 M):

Microsoft 45.7%
RIM 23.3%
Palm OS 18.8%
Symbian 7.6%
Linux 0.8%

Combined (Smartphones + PDAs, 15.4 M):

Symbian 51.4%
Linux 19.9%
Microsoft 14.4%
Palm OS 7.3%
RIM 6.0%

You can slice this however you like, but I really think the smartphone and combined data really put the WM vs POS into perspective. Microsoft and Palm Source are slugging it out for third and fourth - and if you want to play the game called 'the vendor of the OS on my device sells more licences than the vendor of the OS on your device' you'd better get a Nokia!


RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 10:11:04 AM # Q

I guess Ed Hardy is in on your vast conspiracy to misrepresent MS's WM earnings too.

Windows Mobile Revenue up 50%
http://www.brighthand.com/article/Microsoft_Results_Q3_05

For the record, as you do not trust my interpretation of the numbers, how many WM licenses do you think MS shipped in Q3 2005? Sources please.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 10:19:22 AM # Q

Marcol, thanks for at least looking at the numbers and sources.

Yes, Symbian is the big 800 pound gorilla, and if they can execute in their transition from consumer space to business utility they will be the outright winner very soon. Currently however they form a poor platform for serious usage, and they know it. They also have a wide range of smaller players arrayed against them. The dominance of Symbian by the Nokia, in the same way that POS is dominated by Palm, has turned many other potential licensees, like e.g. Palm, against them.

Linux is the upstart, but also currently does not form a real platform, even less so than Symbian. PSRC is promising to actually transform this situation, but we shall have to wait and see.

The biggest platforms is POS and WM, which is why we are discussing the two.

If you like nice links, here's a recent Colligan interview to Time Magazine, where he basically says about WM, if you cant beat them, join them, and names Nokia and Motorola as his biggest competitors.

http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1126741,00.html

If the other platforms mature rapidly (say over the next 18 months) however we may as well be arguing which is better, Atari or Commodore.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 10:20:53 AM # Q
> "...how many WM licenses do you think MS shipped in Q3 2005..."

That's my point. They don't break it out. Your numbers included XP embedded, and possible other products. :)

> "...Microsoft and Palm Source are slugging it out for third and fourth..."

This is true globally, but these numbers are greatly skewed compared to the US market. You'll find Symbian is more prevalent in Europe, and microsuck sells a bit better overseas than Palm simply because it's a larger company that can stuff any old rubbish down its global channel and find an MCSE to buy it. :)

------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 10:32:32 AM # Q

D.O. those numbers are specifically for PDA's and Smartphones. Or is your magic XP PDA/Smartphone shipping already?

So you actually seriously believe PalmOS is still shipping about the same number (or even more) devices than WM devices? If I had known your bluster was based on ignorance I would have had more pity on you.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
marcol @ 11/8/2005 10:40:16 AM # Q
"Yes, Symbian is the big 800 pound gorilla, and if they can execute in their transition from consumer space to business utility they will be the outright winner very soon."

I can only offer a personal perspective, but I think that the Nokia E61 certainly deserves a look. No touch screen (at least that means one-handed navigation should bbe good!), but UMTS, Wifi, exposed QWERTY keyboard in a pocketable package. Seems to business oriented (no camera).

http://www.symbian.com/phones/nokia_e61.html

"Currently however they form a poor platform for serious usage, and they know it."

Interesting. Why so?

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 11:02:58 AM # Q

Its mainly about backend intergration and vertical usage. I still have to see the DHL salesman show up at my door with a symbian handheld. Symbian has a smaller developer ecosystem, and has poorer development tools, and less cross-device compatability. As a business operating system is less mature. They have far less momentum in the business field, which explains the creation of the Nokia Business Centre http://www.europe.nokia.com/nokia/0,0,77174,0.html recently. In a large part its perception, but your boss is much more likely to give you a WM or POS handheld as part of your job than a Nokia device.


Try this link for a better exposition. http://www.arcchart.com/blueprint/print.asp?id=371&qtabs=99999

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
marcol @ 11/8/2005 11:36:01 AM # Q
"Currently however they form a poor platform for serious usage, and they know it."

"Its mainly about backend intergration and vertical usage. I still have to see the DHL salesman show up at my door with a symbian handheld. Symbian has a smaller developer ecosystem, and has poorer development tools, and less cross-device compatability. As a business operating system is less mature. They have far less momentum in the business field, which explains the creation of the Nokia Business Centre http://www.europe.nokia.com/nokia/0,0,77174,0.html recently."

I confess I don't understand all the language in the second bit (my Treo is great for "vertical usage", heck it even works upside down :-)) but for me serious use of my Treo means use for work and mostly this is PIM and and email (including attachment viewing, rarely editing). Ok I'm not a "DHL salesman" (deliveryman?) but I suspect that in having PIM and email as my prrimary requirements, I'm very far from atypical. Looking at the specs of the E61 and and reading this review of the Sony Ericsson P990:

http://www.mobile-review.com/review/sonyericsson-p990-en.shtml

it seems they'd fit my needs very well. Pushed email with IMAP Idle (this is what i use now - I might go to Exchange is when Microsoft finally get proper push out of the door), Office files, reasonable looking calendar and contacts apps (not sure how good Mac syncing is though).

"In a large part its perception, but your boss is much more likely to give you a WM or POS handheld as part of your job than a Nokia device."

I'm a bit confused by the "In a large part its perception" bit. Are you saying that (in large part) the platform isn't poor but it's just perceived as poor? Anyway, as with desktops, I'm pretty much in the position of choosing my own device. I do check with our IT people first but thus far they've not objected to my Macs and Palms. They'd probably prefer Windows and WM and I guess these are the guys that Nokia, Sony Ericsson, et al. need to convince.

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 12:57:20 PM # Q

20 years ago still there were a large variety of computing devices available, some even great sellers even. I'm talking about Commodore, Apple, Altair, TI, TSR-80, etc etc. These eventually consolidated into the IBM PC and compatibles and the DOS/Windows OS. This was largely due to being used in the business environment.

Currently we are again at the beginning of a large and very diverse market, but I predict eventually the market will also consolidate, and likely also on the choice of the business market, due to network effects (although the effects are weaker). There's a strong analogy in the PC market. You may be very happy with a Mac, but you cant borrow your friend with a PC's software easily, and you don't get the majority of games, and people get confused when they sit in front of your machine.

Let me re-iterate: There is nothing technically wrong with Symbian or Linux handhelds (that I know of) vs POS handhelds, which are stuck with an outdated OS. They are just not very inter-operable with other devices using the same OS. Its fine for personal use, but you may have problems when you move to your next Symbian device. Either way, I do not dismiss either, and would not be flabbergasted (like Dr Opinion is about WM) if they win in the end.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 1:13:53 PM # Q
> "...those numbers are specifically for PDA's and Smartphones..."

Great, give us the link where microsuck makes that claim. :)

> "...Ed Hardy..."

Ed Hardy is quite explicit: "This group is responsible for everything that runs a version of Windows CE"... as we know, that runs the gamut of everything from XP Embedded in those microsuck tivo-wannabe boxes, to cash registers in supermarkets. Ed in no way suggests that the 50% increase, $74MM number can be compared to PalmSource. At all. :)

You explicitly attempt to make that comparison, which is either grossly ignorant, or a deliberate attempt to shill for microsuck. You're counting microsuck cash-register licenses and comparing it to Treos. :)

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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
ChiA @ 11/8/2005 1:15:03 PM # Q
Dr Opinion said: microsuck sells a bit better overseas than Palm simply because it's a larger company that can stuff any old rubbish down its global channel

then how come Microsoft, as a larger company, can't beat Palm in the US by stuffing any old rubbish down its US channel if it's able to do this for its global channels?

Or putting another way, how come Palm can't beat Microsoft globally when it's beating Microsoft in the USA?

"What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog" - Dwight D. Eisenhower

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 1:21:20 PM # Q
It's a great question. :)

Palm just hasn't been focused on foreign smartphone markets, since it's a smaller, US-based company and working with the carriers is highly resource intensive. Of course, the new European R&D center will be working to expand the runaway success of the Treo into Symbian's territory. :)

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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 1:34:39 PM # Q

So palmsource isnt trying to sell into vertical markets, like Symbol or Alphasmart?

BTW Win CE means the CE kernel, vs XP Embedded, which is the NT kernel. You know you are sounding more and more like Kirvin, using words you do not know the meaning of.

"...those numbers are specifically for PDA's and Smartphones..."
Great, give us the link where microsuck makes that claim.

I do not have to. Gartner is the one making the claim. As is Canalys.

So D.O. Its time to commit yourself. Exactly how many WM licenses do you think MS shipped?

Surur


RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 1:45:14 PM # Q
Surur, you grossly inflated Wince Mob sales, but I caught you. :)

You speculate wildy about Wince Mob licenses, claim it's fact, but I caught you. :)

Let's just agree: you lied, you were caught, you'll try harder next time. OK? :)

The bottom line is, if wince was doing even *slightly* better than Palm, microsuck would be screaming about it, instead of paying shills to hang out here spreading FUD. :)

It's obvious: if wince was doing well, microsuck would break out the numbers. Duh! :)

>spank< :)



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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 1:57:13 PM # Q

You know D.O., Ive been really irritated by you for a long time, as I thought you were just spouting lies to be malicious. Now that I find out you actually believe what you say I only feel sorry for you.

Its sad really that some-one can be so out of touch with reality. As VOR says, you need to speak with your doctor to up your medication.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
marcol @ 11/8/2005 2:02:00 PM # Q
"Either way, I do not dismiss either, and would not be flabbergasted (like Dr Opinion is about WM) if they win in the end."

I'm not convinced that there has to be an eventual winner. Even if the PC market is a good paradigm for the handheld device market, I think we have to consider that even though Windows clearly has a dominant position now, there are still alternatives and and the fight is far from over. Would you stake your house on Windows being as dominant as it is now in 20 years time?


RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 2:42:27 PM # Q
> "...Now that I find out you actually believe what you say..."

Yes: I believe you compared wince-division's $74MM with PalmSource's revenue, even though you knew it included XP embedded and other products. :)

Yes: I believe you used a wildly inflated license number that included XP embedded licenses. :)

Yes, I believe that if wince was actually selling well, microsuck would announce it, and release numbers. :)

So yes, I believe what I say. Simple, really. :)

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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 2:52:37 PM # Q

D.O., just to confirm, you definitely believe WM sells around or less than 1.2 million devices per quarter? (POS's published numbers Q2 2005, http://www.palmsource.com/press/2005/092105_q1earnings.html)

Marcol, you're quite right. Saying winner is meaningless without specifying which term/when. Owning 90% of the market for a decade would probably qualify for some definition however. Having your competitors go out of business is another.

Surur

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
cervezas @ 11/8/2005 4:46:36 PM # Q
I'm not convinced that there has to be an eventual winner. Even if the PC market is a good paradigm for the handheld device market, I think we have to consider that even though Windows clearly has a dominant position now, there are still alternatives and and the fight is far from over.

Yup. I think the word "convergence" as it's applied to mobile devices is a real misnomer, since what we're really seeing are a proliferation of relative small categories of devices, each tailored to the demands of different users. Make a platform or device that hits even just one of these categories dead on and you can carve out a good business for yourself. Exhibit A: RIM. Taking the argument to the extreme (a company that dominates a really small niche and does quite well in it) look at Exhibit B: Alphasmart.

Numbers based on very broad categories aren't completely useless, but they don't tell you as much as many of us would like to think because they lump together devices that in many cases aren't really in competition with each other. Does a Palm Z22 compete with an industrial class Symbol device running Windows Mobile? Does a Treo 650 compete with a low-end Nokia Series 60 phone? Does a Blackberry compete with a LifeDrive?

There's room for many winners and if recent history is any indication the number of winners may actually continue to grow.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
Dr Opinion @ 11/8/2005 7:36:57 PM # Q
I agree... and I personally would welcome a continued niche role for wince. Unfortunately microsuck doesn't see it that way: look for wince to be discontinued in the 12-18 month timeframe and replaced with an XP derivative running on mobile hardware. Of course, the replacement for wince will definitely break binary compatability. :)

But wince developers are used to that sort of thing by now. Breaks applications every major revision, right? :)

A little birdie told me that this "XP mobile" is actually a fork off the Longhorn/Vista tree... You heard it here first. :)

Of course, Vista itself is having various problems, and seems unlikely to ship before late 2006/early 2007. :)


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"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."

RE: Correction: WM 70% POS 30% - Its NOT THAT BAD!!
sr4 @ 11/8/2005 7:47:36 PM # Q
Poor man... How's Medicaid treating you?

Surur

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