Comments on: Treo 700p, Hollywood, Lowrider Treos Coming Next Year

In any case, I would agree that wireless will be where the growth will be for Palm.

I hope that was a draft report though, if anyone at my firm released something that hastily written....

They also said this, pulled from my stock screen:

Palm-PALM third largest holder demands steps be taken to boost stock-Bloomberg Sagio Investment Management SA, owner of 5% of PALM shares, plans to deliver a letter today to management outlining actions the company should take, including a share buyback or sale of company, according to Bloomberg.

Does PALM even have enough cash for a share buyback? I haven't looked at the numbers...it certainly seems like blatant boosterism on the part of Sagio. ie it's bordering on "greenmail"

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greenmail.asp

Apparently, they've got $411M in cash and a $60M piece of real estate that's on the market (or could go on the market). That really does sound like a pile.

You guys are all kind of missing the point, as far as I'm concerned. Forget about the obvious spin of the sales data and consider what parts of this we could reasonably assume are accurate (i.e. that Sagio had no incentive to exaggerate or that we can corroborate from other sources).

This is the second source that has identified 4 Treos that Palm will be releasing in the first half of next year. Two 700 models (Windows and Palm OS) in Jan or Feb, an antenna-less (presumably more stylish) Treo called "Hollywood" between Mar and May, and an entry level sub-$300 Treo that lacks the 3G radio called "Lowrider" around the same time as Hollywood. There's a range of opinion about the release dates, but corroboration on all the other points.

It's not like the analysts are thrilled about this rapid succession of releases. Forbes actually said it would limit PALM's upside prospects, which doesn't sound like boosterism to me.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of information comes at the end of the letter. Sagio is *plenty* critical of Palm's management right now. They go so far to say that if the management doesn't execute quickly on a laundry list of complaints the Board of Directors should consider selling the company to a consortium or another key player in the industry. It sounds to me that given the financial picture they've painted, the fact of the huge position in PALM they've taken, and the sharp criticism of the management, they are actually planning to agitate for selling the company.

That's a pretty interesting window into the mind of one of PALM's largest shareholders and may very well be a harbinger of the future.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Now if they do have inside information, and we can take some of what they say at face value, they said WM5 is very important for Europe, where POS has poor traction, and also said the antenna-less Hollywood is destined for Europe. Connecting the two, it implied Hollywood runs WM5....if you can believe a word they say...

In Europe where PALM market share is only 5% we think that Microsoft alliance will give an immediate boost to sales and also expand carrier relationship since most of them already support Windows mobile 5.0.

Presently PALM has a very strong market position in the US with 31% of market share but is currently very weak in EMEA (4%) and Asia Pacific (5%) The weakness in Europe is mainly explained by 3 factors
- External antenna disliked by fashion sensitive Europeans
- Lack of support and following for PALM operating systems
- No 3G radio and poor camera quality
All this concerns will be taken care of with PALM new product code named Hollywood which will be introduced in May 06.

“Hollywood” will be a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM first attempt at the European GSM market. We know the phone will have no external antenna and will probably he launched by Cingular in the US.

Surur

They have a $60 million piece of property on sale that cost them more than $100 million AND they might not even get $60 million for it (THEIR estimate of its value, not the Real Estate Market's!).

Sheesh.

Actually, forget the cash. I was just answering hoodoo's question. I'm more interested in assessing the validity of the release schedule now that we've heard this from a couple of different sources. And I'm curious what others think about Sagio's rather aggressive shot across the bow of Palm's management.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Right, that's my concern. The preoccupation with the cash. The fact that they are looking at real estate (which they say no other analyst has bothered to notice). Their concerns seem nakedly financial, with little regard to operational impact, product vision or long term health of the brand. I got a bad feeling when they said Palm should aggressively cut back on its warranty commitments, for example.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Sagio describes themselves as being involved in "alternative" investments...AKA a Hedge Fund..one of their funds is even called the "Sniper" fund. Their main incentive is to attempt to realize as full a value as possible for PALM shares and as high a return as possible for their investors.

They list in their letter a ton of positive comments but also the ultimatum style comments are interesting. Curiously, if you read the last line of the letter that describes their investment philosophy:

"Sagio's trading approach also applies principles of cognitive and evolutionary psychology to financial market behavior."

I think they're taking that approach here, and giving PALM a not-so-gentle kick in the arse.

I also find interesting the 13G they filed declaring the 5% ownership of PALM: "By signing below I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the securities referred to above were not acquired and are not held for the purpose of or with the effect of changing or influencing the control of the Issuer of the securities and were not acquired and are not held in connection with or as a participant in any transaction having that purpose or effect."

http://www.sagioinvest.com/reps/Sagio_Investments_Schedule_13G.pdf

That kinda contradicts the letter they wrote to PALM!

Sagio spells it out on thier site:

http://www.sagioinvest.com/investment/investment.asp

Their policy is buy companies with goodwill that are on their last legs, puff up their books/branding by bullying and P.R. puffery, then bail out when idiots like us buy their stock. This is unlike Texas Pacific Group, who buy ailing companies with great goodwill and semi-strong balance sheets (J. Crew, Vespa, Ducati, etc.) and hold them till they become hits again.

There's nothing wrong with Sagio's strategy. They wouldn't be a 5% shareholder if Palm had listened to its fans and competition.

My only question is this: will the 700p have a sniveling 240x240 screen like the 700w? How does that constitute an upgrade? From what I can tell, the 650 is close to perfect. Stick in EVDO/3G/UMTS and a 2megapixel camera and you're back on top.

NX70 addict...

The Palm OS software base requires 320x320, so they'll sit tight with it.

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

Sure the WinMob will have the "advanced" OS and a faster CPU but the Palm version will (likely) be a few $ cheaper, have a smaller antenna and a larger/higher-res screen.

Good for Palm to level the playing field (assuming they do all of the above, of course!)

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

'“Hollywood” will be a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM first attempt at the European GSM market'

First attempt at Euro GSM market?. What was the Treo 600 then? It was a GSM phone released into to the Euro market within weeks of it's US launch. Now, I hear pedants screaming it was Handspring but I shall ignore you.

Let's hope these new phones are the dog bollocks, because they will have to be a great deal better than the Treo 600/650/700 to move in the European market.

Fish

The "analysts" (psychics) report stated that the 700p will use the same form factor as the 700w. This sounds a lot more like the Palm I know. I cannot imagine them going for a new form factor just for a Palm OS version. They have tapped HTC again for the W version and presumably would save the coin by being able to run both devices down the same line with mostly overlapping components. Save the screen and possibly not quite identical momma-boards.

Personally, I am not nearly as attracted to the 700w as the 650s, due to it clunkier corporate look and squarish lines. But the black color scheme is nice IMO. Anyway, I expect them to maximize the economies by making the devices like twins, except for the ROM/RAM/Display and possibly cosmetics. Hey! How about a dual-boot?

Sadly, this scenario means that Palm expects to "go it" again for a year + with that protuding beast on top of the Treo. Another perplexing decision from the "Big Orange". :-(

Maybe it's time for the Treo Flipper?
http://www.churchoflivingfaith.com/images/treoflipper.jpg

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

Who are you calling PEDANTICAL???

;-O

[Private joke for the Palminfocenter regulars.]

Let's hope these new phones are the dog bollocks, because they will have to be a great deal better than the Treo 600/650/700 to move in the European market.

It's taken over three years for Palm + Handspring to figure out that Europeans don't like bricks with external antennae. I wonder if it's too late to remedy the situation?

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

http://bssc.sel.sony.com/Professional/navitus/index.html

Do note that it's not compatible with MS Pros but I hear it's gonna give the LifeDrive a run for its money!

LOL!
_______________________________________________________
Pat/Voice;
Remember that leaked image that was on someone's blog back in September or so? It was of the supposed Treo 670. It had squared corners, a nub antenna, and a slightly larger 320*320 screen. It looked like the hybrid of the i705's body, the T|W's antenna and a Treo 650. What a shame---the 700W is arguably uglier than the 650/600 are!

Where'd you get that bit about it being in black? I have to admit that the black/dark blue coloring DOES do a good bit to improve the aesthetics of the tired old T|E formfactor.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

-700W in January

-700P in March/April (similar specs to 700W but in a SLIGHTLY sleeker looking body w/ nub antena & a bit larger 320*320 screen)

-Low-end Treo (basically the Treo 600 specs but dressed in nifty styling with NVFS, a better camera, and stable FrankenGarnet) for autumn.

I figure Palm's going to have a relatively quiet year for their POS devices in '06. I expect Garnet 5.5 which is basically a final reworking/hacking of the TX's (mostly) stable 5.4.9. Look for 5.5 on both Palm-powered Treos in '06 and whatever final batch of rehashed Z/T/LD PDAs they release throughout the year.

Palm would also be wise to shore up their product release windows with three solid rounds per year. Midrange PDAs and WinMob Treos in spring, Mobile Managers & accessory launches in summer, low-end stuff & POS Treos for fall.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

Adam! It's from an "Analyst". These guys give a new meaning to the term "Palm Reader"! About as reliable too.

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

His title = Analyst. Therefore, this could have been said without reading the report.

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

I don't know about you but STABILITY and MEMORY are 2 features I kinda want to have if I'm shelling out $500 - $600 for a smartphone.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

I had a Psion Revo Plus (OK, actually the Diamond Mako branded US version, but identical except for the name.) for 3-4 months before a hardware failure. It never once did anything unexpected. Not once. I want that feature back more than anything in the PDA world.

The built in phone, messaging and media apps are rock-solid - an amazing achievement, considering Garnet's "issues".

Lack of memory? That's what SD cards are for! More memory on the device would just mean a more expensive handset, and the information wouldn't be as portable. I do agree, however, that Palm should include one in the box. Or make it an option to get one at a discount with the phone. Also, the 32MB included should be "real" memory, not a good ten meg taken up by ROM apps.

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

In place of the cell radio stick something cool in there like a tazer so I could use it for self defense as well.

---
David

Palm has already sent me a unit with the tazer. Maybe I can post a photo soon. They are doing market research on either offering it or a laser pointer inside the Treo antenna.

**I can reset my Zire 72 when the DiddleBug alarm locks it up**
Tim,
An OS that could trap system crashes (aka Win NT, XP) and toss them out without a crash would be optimum. But, can you really blame the Treo for crashing when you've loaded it with freeware? I love the cheepy stuff too, but you get what you pay for most times. :-)

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com

The built in phone, messaging and media apps are rock-solid - an amazing achievement, considering Garnet's "issues".

I assume you've never used VersaMail if you believe the Treo 650 apps are all "rock-solid".

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

The TX's version of Blazer does seem pretty solid but VM on it leaves a lot to be desired. It's arguably weaker than the T5's older VM.

I haven't played with a Treo 650 enough to be confident in making any claims one way or another BUT Gekko claims that his 650 is extremely stable.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

I had in the past used the Treo 270 and 600 and none of them had this problem.

Hope than in the new model Treo 700 they could finally fix it.

You would assume incorrectly. However, I wouldn't consider myself a "heavy" user of Versamail - I've only ever occasionally used it to mail photos etc to friend's PC's. It's worked fine in that respect. I've heard of other people having problems with it, but don't Palm claim to have fixed it with the latest ROMs? (Yes, it should have worked 100% out of the box...)

From the Sagio report, Palm has a warranty return rate of 6% or something? The report seems to have been taken down now. Is that significantly higher than other handheld manufacturers? (curious)

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Its Sagio's solution which is impressive however - not increase built quality and stability, but to reduce the length of the warranty. Thats why they are millionaires and we are plebes of course. ;)

Surur

Palm already went that route (3 month Tungsten E warranty)...

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

It seems almost unbelievable. Not that I doubt you. But what would be the cause of this? It can't just be the manufacturers, can it? After all, I was under the impression that big manufacturers like HTC and the like manufacture everyone's devices, not just Palm - so if it's a manufacturing issue, why don't other vendors see the same warranty rates?

Or are Palm just using cheap, shoddy parts?

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Palm does have a serious quality control problem but has recently taken some tentative steps to address them. The problems stem from a combination of greed + stupidity, speccing cheap parts that break in an effort to shave a buck or two where they SHOULDN'T be shaved. Was it really a good idea to spec a crappy speaker or fixed battery on the Treo 600? Or underspec the memory on both the Treo 600 and 650? When Palm switched to Chinese manufacturing companies their PDA quality nosedived. (Tungsten/Dungsten E, anyone?) Some apologists will tell you that the Treos are a whole new game, so growing pains are inevitable. Bull. Handspring created a nearly-perfect smartphone design which was then crippled by shoddy construction and dubious parts selection. Spend $35 - $50 more on the Treo 600 with better parts + construction and it would have been unstoppable. Instead of addressing the flaws and advancing the design with the Treo 650, Palm released a minor revision. After two years of supposed R+D, is that all they could come up with? Ridiculous.

It seems almost unbelievable. Not that I doubt you. But what would be the cause of this? It can't just be the manufacturers, can it? After all, I was under the impression that big manufacturers like HTC and the like manufacture everyone's devices, not just Palm - so if it's a manufacturing issue, why don't other vendors see the same warranty rates?

Or are Palm just using cheap, shoddy parts?

I would suspect the return rate for the Treo was more like 20%. The Treo 600 was simply unreliable if you were depending on the smartphone to be a real PHONE as well. I believe those quoted figures for return rates are BOTH way off the mark.

HTC manufactures devices to their customers' specs. If Company A specs a $5 speaker and Company B specs a 50 cent speaker, obviously there will be differences, even though both are made by HTC. Still, the Treo 650 is a MUCH better quality device than the Treo 600 was. The Tungsten E was a peice of biodegradeable crap, but more recent Dungstens have been a bit better made. Palm STILL hobbles each device with at least one or two showstopping flaws*, but things are looking better overall.

*LifeDrive = riduculous memory architecture, lack of RealRAM™.

TX = ??? (we shall seee...)

T5 = CrapRAM/NVFS nightmare

TE2 = QC

Zire 31 = horrible screen

TE = QC

Treo 650 = CrapRAM™, woefully inadequate memory

etc., etc.

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Well look what the cat dragged in...

Welcome back, Marty. I trust you're now thoroughly chastened by the corporal punishment you received from your Palm masters. Does it still hurt when you sit down?

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

This is why I sing the Treo's praises - my one, at least, hasn't let me down.

I'd be perfectly willing to pay an extra premium of about 50 bucks if it meant higher quality parts. Seems strange Palm don't think that way - surely they'd want as much as anyone to get the warranty rate down?

I will never understand corporations. Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions.

P.S. Marty - 50% return rate?!?! Even if that was only a short amount of time, wouldn't that just kill the product?

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Good to see you too.

Interesting to be back. Soon I'll be just another pretty face, though. Palmsource^wAccess and I are parting ways -- I resigned and they set 2 Dec as my last day -- and no, I don't have anything to say about it.

I'm sure Skippy will have a field day over that, but hey, gotta give the kids something to play with.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

They may have better luck with the WM OS, but I doubt it, and if they manage to expand the market more into newbie territory, I expect their return rate will even increase, as more inexperienced people give up after one try.

Surur

PS: Marty, when are you spilling the beans about the future direction of PSRC/Access, and how well it is going.

Interesting point about the software. The technology probably doesn't exist right now, but perhaps at some time in the future Palm could implement some kind of Remote Assistance feature, like is built into Windows nowadays. After all, the Treo is a wireless device, so why not use that to help cut down on returns?

Of course such things can work out to be a security nightmare, but if corporations can administer over-the-air updates to their fleet of Treos (as I recall reading David Beers say), then surely Palm could do the same for the mass market.

Maybe it's just too much hassle...

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

I have no idea what the future direction is. I've spoken with no one at PalmSource's new owners.

I have personal opinions on the matter, but won't be sharing them, as the substantiating evidence for those opinions is all proprietary to Access/PalmSource, and I dislike expressing opinions I can't provide my evidence for.

I will say that this is only the second time in thirty years in the industry that I've ever found it desirable to quit without taking the time to find another job first.

Oh, and I will say, independent of PalmSource's activities, that I doubt that Linux will be fast enough for a smartphone until Moore's Law allows the hardware to catch up, in the form of ARM-11 devices -- but that's something you can figure out for yourself by running Debian on a Gumstix processor.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

I have no idea what Palm's margins are, but using numbers from back-in-the-day, I would be very surprised if any company could afford to do in-warranty remote-support of a telephone. The number of returns you avoid would very probably not justify the cost of setting up and running the remote support operation.

Plus, a lot of phone issues are carrier specific, so you'd need staff trained to deal with the idiosyncracies of every carrier.

It would not surprise me in the least to find that it's an order of magnitude cheaper to write off the returns than to try that.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

Perhaps not Remote Assistance then, but a Palm Update program, similar to Windows Update, that automatically issues patches and updates straight to the devices. Optional for people who'd rather handle it themselves, of course.

Although, this still wouldn't beat the problem of non-computer-savvy users getting stumped occasionally as to how to make things work. I think the only practical way to beat that would be to round up the world's idiots and gas them.

They can start with my local takeaway. It's not very hard to remember "chicken salt please"...

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Do you agree that Access is not really making a play for China yet?

Surur

What on earth does any of that have to do with QC? You've just listed several feature decisions that you don't agree with, but none of those have anything to do with any QC issues that Treo users have experienced.

My biggest QC complaint has been the cheap chrome paint they used on the 650, which is now rubbing off in several places. I never had that problem with my Treo 600. Other users have experienced more substantial QC issues, but it's hard to say how widespread they are. Several polls at Treocentral would suggest that, as is typically the case, users with issues are in the minority but are also more vocal.

I'm not suggesting that Palm has done a superb job QC-wise, feature-wise, or design-wise with the 650, but it's not bad and it's still the best smartphone out there right now, IMHO (which I believe is more the result of the incompetence of the competition as opposed to Palm's self-proclaimed "genius").

http://Tapland.com
- Tapwave Zodiac News, Reviews, & Discussion -

All past things as water under the bridge--I hope Dec 3rd--or at least the dawn of the new year--finds you gainfully & happily employed.

Sooner or later, SOMEONE is gonna spill the beans. Between the bloodletting at PalmSource/Access and the usual circus at Palm, there are gonna be plenty of beans needing to be mopped up in the next 4-6 months.

Voice;
Add to the list of showstopping bugs:

TX-Crippled/GSM-only Bluetooth functionality and the boneheaded relegation/relocation of the home button to a hard button where its old location was just fine on the T3/T5/LD.

T3-Horribly underspec'd battery. Poor quality control with digitzer drift & slider

Zire 72-Peeling blue skin/paint.

The Zire 31's screen, for what it is (a ~$100 device with an otherwise good CPU, SD slot/headphone jack) isn't bad at all. At least it's physically larger than the Z22's! Palm could actually give mass-market retail MP3 devices like the Sandisk Sansa a slight run for their money if they had an ultra sleek/tiny/stylish PDA with a passable 160*160 color screen, an SD slot and decent quality audio output for <$100. I know a guy who uses his Zire 31 to go jogging-he keeps track of his stats on the Zire while playing MP3s on an SD card. Not a bad setup. He's already dropped it a few times and the screen has a slight smudge on it but it's otherwise ok.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5

Appreciated, Mr. Fouts.

Okay, probably easier to get away with learned commentary on the feasability of Linux on smartphones that way!

But we'll remember...at least for a week or two!

[and your commentary IS still appreciated]

Ahem. You'll NEVER be a "pretty face", Marty. What are you smoking?

Palmsource^wAccess and I are parting ways -- I resigned and they set 2 Dec as my last day -- and no, I don't have anything to say about it.

I'm sure Skippy will have a field day over that, but hey, gotta give the kids something to play with.

Marty, for all your vapid arrogance, I surprised you're slow enough to actually think I wish you any ill will. Then again, maybe I should hire you just so I can fire you, Trump-style.

As an aside, from what I know about PalmSource + Access I think cutting your losses now will be a good thing for you in the long term. I expect that most of the smartest PalmSource employees will have left the company within a few months. I hear Motorola might be hiring... But in the future I hope you'll refrain from running your mouth in public like you did here a few weeks ago.

Your Pal,
TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

the problem with gassing all the idiots is you wouldn't have enough people left to be a good market for smart phones. In consumer electronics you've got to make the device simple enough for the user base. The good news is that a smart phone assumes a more computer literate user base than an mp3 player. The bad news is that the level of literacy is that of "IT supports us" and that's still hard to do with a smart phone.

Surur:

I assume you meant "Access using Palmsource" but it doesn't matter. I have no knowledge of what Access plans. There's nothing I could say. I really was just a random kernel hacker there, and I really have no inside information about anything but the state of PalmLinux -- and that I have been forcefully reminded, is covered by NDA, so I won't be talking about it.

hkklife:

Thanks for the kind thoughts.

SeldomVisitor:

I assume you meant "dropped nothing". I am a "PalmSource person" to the extent that what I can speak to is limited by nondisclosure agreements. But there's no point in my speaking about PalmSource. Anything positive I would say would be regarded as spin. Anything negative I would say would be regarded as sour grapes. By the time the nondisclosures expire, any evidence I could use to support a position would be completely stale.

So I shall say nothing that can't be supported by facts already in the public record.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

I'm genuinely puzzled here. How, precisely, did you get from 'field day' to 'ill will'? That's a big jump even by your standards.

FYI, "Field Day" is defined as "Informal. A time of great pleasure, activity, or opportunity" I merely meant that you would actively respond to my return, and, lo and behold, you have.

I'll leave it up to you to decide whether you are drawing pleasure from the opportunity or not.

Do carry on, that's a good chap.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

Recently?

Giggle...

> Recently?

> Giggle

I believe the answer to that would be covered by the NDA, so I won't answer it.

Giggling is good for the soul.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

I hope you find an area you can comment on which wont leave you tangled in NDA's. Do you even own any PalmOS devices? What about the latest WM5 devices in the US?

At least tell us when the NDA ends, so we can set our reminders, and scan Amazon for the Marty Fouts Tell All book ;)

Anyway, welcome back. (Not too Jimmie Geddes I hope :) )

Surur

There's really not much I can comment on. I can talk about the difficulties with Linux, since it's open source and I can point to specific open source examples. I can't talk about PalmLinux at all, especially not schedule. I'd rather not speculate on Palm or ACCESS, because the most I could do is offer opinions without any support.

I will say that it is still my opinion that the two most likely candidates for a usable Linux-phone distribution are Nokia, who, as far as I know, aren't working on one, but have Maemo on the market without telephony, and PalmSource, because of PalmLinux.

Unless, of course, someone wants to fund a startup for me to do a Linux/embedded systems distro. ;)

Marty

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

(...)

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

Unfortunately, your current posts here suggest that you haven't learned a damned thing. Isn't learning from past experience supposed to be a sign of intelligence? Evidently you are a Linux idiot savant. I should have a field day with your spectacular Fall From Grace, but I won't.

Have a nice day.

[Waiting for Marty to slip up and post the REAL PalmLinux development timeline (bupkis until 2008!) and have Access' lawyers descend upon his rotting carcass like flies on sh!t. It probably won't be long now...]

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Giggle...

Even Pavlov's dumbest dog learned after the 50th shock. Marty's only received 3 shocks* so far (but lawyers strike like lightning and can be equally fatal)...

TVoR

*Perhaps operant conditioning is the best way to train Marty-Boy?

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

pavlovian conditioning, by the way, is not the same as aversion therapy, which is what electroshock would be.

i'd have thought with as much time as you've spent in the snake pit you'd know that by now.

HTH. HAND.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

I know, Marty. I also knew you would say that. Predictibility is a good thing in behavioral experiments.

Sit, Marty. Sit. Good Boy.

I sure hope you don't end up like Old Yeller. Are you sure that foam coming out your mouth is just toothpaste, Marty? Take care, Buddy. I'd hate to have to have you put down.

Marty Fouts
"Have Code, Will Travel"
R.I.P.

http://www.motorolacareers.com/moto2.cfm?cntry=USA&page=9

38476
Job Title Principal Software Engineer
Location UNITED STATES-HORSHAM-PA-PA06
Job Category Software Engineering
Position Type Full-time experienced
Relocation Available None
Required Education Bachelors / Degree
Required Experience 5 - 10
Department Description Global access control software engineering.
Scope of Responsibilities/Expectations Design software enhancements for the DAC-6000 Controller adhering to standard procedures. Code and test enhancements for the DAC-6000 Controller adhering to standard procedures. Provide Engineering assistance to Product Support personnel in addressing customer issues. Diagnose and maintain previously produced DAC-6000 code and scripts.

Provide engineering-level customer support, performing risk analysis and assessing tradeoff between various technical options considering customer impact, usability, future maintenance, etc.

Perform software development, support and debug in a variety of operating system environments and platforms including UNIX, Solaris, Linux, MS-Windows, PC and Sun.

Able to assess system level ramifications of different design approaches. Design and implement software that integrates products with third party applications or products. Determine and balance short-term vs. long-term tradeoffs. Consider time to market, maintainability, complexity, flexibility, and life cycles. Balance performance, resources, diminishing returns, and risk.

Able to effectively interface with customers, third parties, Program Management, Product Management, Engineering Management and various internal customer support organizations to reach technical conclusions that are in the company’s best interest regarding high visibility issues.

Identify opportunities to improve processes for preventing software problems at all stages of development.

Identify, develop and use tools to help speed the diagnosis of complex problems involving multiple networked products that do find their way to customer sites.

Specifics:
Familiar with structured analysis and structured design methodologies.
Fluent in the C programming language and Unix/Linux operating systems and scripting.
Experienced in TCP/IP application development.
Working knowledge of relational database systems.
BS Computer Science or equivalent.
5-10 years experience.

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Please keep frothing, Old Yeller.

http://www.motorolacareers.com/index.cfm?#northamerica

Take care, Buddy. I'll let you know if I come across any positions that your unique skill set is suited for.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

This didn't take me long:

http://sfzoo.snaphire.com/

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

Hi Marty,

Can you elaborate on that? Devices with the first ARM11s are pretty much out there:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051101/datu038.html?.v=33

http://www.commsdesign.com/news/insights/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=173602453

But you already have said something key that, for many of us, was NOT a well-known fact (though I use Linux on one of my home machines (an old pII wired directly to my wireless router as its configuration machine), there is no way I'd know that this very usable OS is not yet ready for prime time on a smartphone - that's a fairly significant piece of information that has all SORTS of ramifications right across the entire sector):

== "...Oh, and I will say, independent of PalmSource's
== activities, that I doubt that Linux will be fast enough
== for a smartphone until Moore's Law allows the hardware
== to catch up, in the form of ARM-11 devices -- but that's
== something you can figure out for yourself by running
== Debian on a Gumstix processor..."

> ...I will say that it is still my opinion that the two most
> likely candidates for a usable Linux-phone distribution are
> Nokia, who, as far as I know, aren't working on one, but have
> Maemo on the market without telephony, and PalmSource, because
> of PalmLinux...

Yet neither, based on your own prior words, will work until that fast processor comes along in a phone.

> ...Unless, of course, someone wants to fund a startup for
> me to do a Linux/embedded systems distro. ;)

I'd bet bucks that one of the "agreements" you were forced to sign was a non-compete which disallows N years of competing work on your part...

So...ya like working with Microsoft OSes?...

I think the main thing to say is that there is no such thing as too slow. Its all about functionality. If its the fastest thing that allows you to write in Chinese script, you either buy it or not. No other alternative.

If we are to infer anything from Marty's words, its that the PalmOS environment runs too slow with a Linux kernel. Now that is interesting...

Surur

I didn't say there weren't arm-11 devices. I said it will take an arm-11 device, in my opinion, to get acceptable performance. Note, though, that the TI announcement was just made, and talks about a future product. It will be some (probably short) time before an arm-11 phone is in the market in Japan and some more (probably longer) time before it is available in US.

The issue I had in mind was the cache performance on pre arm-11 devices. It tends to make switching from one process to another very slow because you have to flush caches excessively. Dianne Hackborn already discussed that here some time ago, so it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise to regulars.

Seldom visitor:

I'll take that bet. non-competes are very rare in the industry, and i've never had to sign one.

You can check out Nokia's Linux implementation by buying a Nokia 770 -- not a phone, but it'll give you an impression of how well Linux performs on pre arm-11 devices.

Surur:

Didn't know about the Cellon phone. However, it doesn't necessarily dispute my observation. Do you know what processor it is using? (I'd guess not arm-11, but it'd be nice to know)

Do you have any evidence, by the way, that smartphones are, in fact, selling well in China? As far as I could tell, the Cellon is only selling in Europe right now. Also, it'd be rather difficult to know if a phone that first shipped in q3 05 (that's this quarter) is doing well.

You, of course, will infer negative things about PalmLinux from anything I say, but it would not be wise to infer that my comments have anything specific to do with PalmLinux. They're generic comments about Linux performance on arm-9.

Here's an interesting observation: I compile the basic "helloworld" program (it's about 5 lines long) on a pentium iii running @ 700 mhz. It takes less than a second. I compile the same program on an arm-9 system (ti omap 730) with a 200 mhz processor. It takes a little longer that a minute to compile. This is with the same version of gcc on both systems, and both running the same linux kernel.

In other words, for a typical task, the arm-9 is roughly 60 times slower than the p3, even though the p3's processor is only 3.5 times faster.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2005/r2005102.htm

I have always known that a 624 MHz ARM processor is about equivalent to a 66 MHz 386 (but many people argue with me about this, and say we dont need 800 MHz ARM processors). However when we first got our 386's we were quite happy with them, and thought they were speed demons. We were doing video rendering and ripping mp3's, and we did not say they were too slow to be successful in the market. Being "slow" will not kill a unique product with wanted features (look at WM5 ;) )

Surur

Wow - that IS news to me! Must be a California Thang.

Here in Northern Virginia as a software consultant since '88 and a regular old employee prior to that I can assure you non-competes are very much the norm - some amazingly restrictive, some merely a severe annoyance. Depending on where you sign on as a consultnt, for example, the courts will nail you or say "No problem" (Maryland and DC are severely pro-contract - you sign it, they enforce it. Virginia ia a Right-To-Work state so is much less likely to enforce a non-compete (this is pretty much union-driven in MD and DC)).

Thanks for the heads up. I wasn't aware of any of the market stuff.

In that case, I have to amend my claim from "too slow" to "too slow for me". ;)

By the way, I *did* find the 386 too slow, "back in the day", but I've always been lucky enough to have access to high performance computer gear. The first Intel processor I felt capable of running a reasonable Unix (FreeBSD, in those days) was a P-II at, IIRC, 66mhz. But I never put a GUI on it.

SeldomVisitor:

Interesting. I suppose it has to do with the industries you'd be involved with. The valley would have died of inertia decades ago without easy movement of talent from one place to another. Out here, non-competes are usually reserved for "star" talent -- the sort of people who everyone in the industry knows by name.

Instead of non-competes, we usually have non-disclosures, which vary from "don't tell anybody for a fixed amount of time" through "don't even tell anybody that this NDA exists". I don't pay much attention to the time frame on NDAs though. It's easier to just not talk about it at all until you see a press release from the company with it in it.

M$ had some onerous non-competes around NT 'back in the day', but I simply refused to work on it at HP. Other than that, I haven't run into any in the OS business.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

Well, all very interesting. There are certain areas around here that are beginning to look like Silicon Valley w.r.t. ability to cross the street and get a job - I'm sure someone will think up soe form of non-something to keep chains around the real workers...

As usual, you're intentionally vague, confusing newbies and then feign innocence. Yes, old ARM processors will continue to choke badly on Linux as the Nokia 770 experiment has shown so clearly. But adoption of tne new ARM chips is expected to occur quickly, so the current rate-limiting step will be eliminated.

The issue I had in mind was the cache performance on pre arm-11 devices. It tends to make switching from one process to another very slow because you have to flush caches excessively. Dianne Hackborn already discussed that here some time ago, so it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise to regulars.

Finally you post something honest, Marty (even thogh it's merely parrotting something I posted a while ago). Well done. Perhaps you're salvageable after all...

You can check out Nokia's Linux implementation by buying a Nokia 770 -- not a phone, but it'll give you an impression of how well Linux performs on pre arm-11 devices.

What??? A second honest statement from Marty? Shocking. Yes, Linux runs like a sick dog on the 770. But the 770 is a proof of concept/experimental sled that I would be surprised to see Nokia release as-is in North America. Unlike PalmSource, Nokia has massive financial resources that it can throw behind their Linux initiative and get development advanced QUICKLY. They also have the massive advantage of being a hardware manufacturer as well. Between Nokia's financial resources and their hardware/software integration, Nokia's time to market for devices will always beat PalmSource + licensees. In the cellphone business that's an unfair advantage which will be difficult to overcome.

You, of course, will infer negative things about PalmLinux from anything I say, but it would not be wise to infer that my comments have anything specific to do with PalmLinux. They're generic comments about Linux performance on arm-9.

It would be hard to say anything definitive about PalmLinux, SINCE IT'S VAPORWARE. Time for you to cut the charade, Marty. PalmLinux will not be ready for prime time until 2008 (if ever).

Here's an interesting observation: I compile the basic "helloworld" program (it's about 5 lines long) on a pentium iii running @ 700 mhz. It takes less than a second. I compile the same program on an arm-9 system (ti omap 730) with a 200 mhz processor. It takes a little longer that a minute to compile. This is with the same version of gcc on both systems, and both running the same linux kernel.

In other words, for a typical task, the arm-9 is roughly 60 times slower than the p3, even though the p3's processor is only 3.5 times faster.

And this is supposed to be shocking because...??? I suppose we're all supposed to believe that CPU clock speed is the only thing that affects performance? To hell with CPU architecture! Who needs it? Sure, Marty. As always, thanks for sharing your brilliant insights. Don't give up the day job, Bubba.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

See Skippy Dance.

Dance Skippy Dance.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Just as I said: field day.

17, though? Too optimistic. More like 13.

Dance, Skippy, dance.

Marty Fouts
Linux kernel developer
Available for work after 2 Dec 05

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Just as I said: field day.

It's a shame. The medications they have today are so much better than even just a few years ago, but so many people still don't get the care they need.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Be Careful Out There!

If that report was for the consumption of other analysts (vs internal use) they should be even more ashamed, as Ive rarely seen a more poorly prepared and unprofessional document. And since when was it the done thing to "give fair access to our research and conclusions to other shareholders and investors" before buying more stock in a company. In fact one could make a case that such a fore-warning would waste Sagio fundholders money, by raising the share price of Palm.

Yes, I'm thoroughly convinced that they are fully on the up and up.... not!

Surur

Cervezas, how did you come across the report in the first place?

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

They're obviously a bit embarrassed that it's being broadcast and commented on so widely. While it wasn't exactly supposed to be an internal document, they told me it was a draft that was intended for the eyes of their clients. "We are not analysts, we are investors," was what he said.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

As I told you before, these guys have taken an unusually aggressive stance for a good reason. They are no friends of Palm, you, me or anyone else who gives a rat's a$$ about the PalmOS platform and will not think twice about brutally fcuking Palm with no lube for a quick buck. Try not to be so naive.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

Sagio only owns 5%, right? How can that give them any power over the company? Doesn't it mean there's another 95% that outweighs them?

Bah. Stocks....

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Really just the power to persuade other shareholders at the margin. In other words, they can't get the shareholders or BOD to do very much that they weren't on the verge of doing anyway.

I don't see a short-run play in this, though. If you were going to publish analysis designed to pump up the share prices why do it a month *before* you acquire a big block of the stock? And why wouldn't you have a professional writer do it instead of some junior guy who knows numbers but not words?

TVoR will always be concocting his paranoid scenarios, but despite his pseudonym he doesn't seem to apply much reason to them.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

This is what I've been asking myself since I read it. No answer yet. Other than the possibility that Sagio doesn't have any "pump-and-dump" (if that's the correct terminology) plans at all, but rather simply believes that the Treo *really is* poised to explode.

Naive? Prolly. I still think Parliament belongs to the people, too... ;)

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Think about it; if, back when the iPod debuted, you knew just how big it was going to become, then wouldn't you be absolutely *insane* not to invest a big wad of cash in Apple?

Maybe Sagio knows a lot more about "Hollywood" and "Lowrider" than they're letting on. [/hopefulness]

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

Surur

Many people don't seem to think of Symbian phones as "smartphones", either. As a Treo evangelist (which I'm sure must have gotten annoying by now ;) ) it seems to be the only "converged" device that really is an all-in-one. Apart from the lack of Wi-Fi drivers and 3G - which looks like it'll change with the next batch of releases - the Treo (to me) only has four major shortcomings:

1: Style. Functionality needs to be retained, but the 650 is a brick. A very nice, polished brick IMO, but still a brick. Hopefully Hollywood, and maybe Lowrider, is going to fix this.

2: The price of high-capacity SD storage, which is hopefully going to keep coming down if more devices adopt the standard.

3: *Most* importantly: integration of the various third-party media apps. As others have pointed out, keeping track of the disparate third-party apps can be difficult for novice users. Quick Install is a good idea that needs to be expanded so you can drag and drop anything into it, and it's assigned to the relevant app on the device. They could call it the Treo Sync Centre or something. Would be nice if transfer speeds were a lot faster too. And you shouldn't need third-party apps for stuff like mp3 ringtones when there's already an mp3 player in the ROM. And that mp3 player should be Pocket Tunes, not the little-too-simplistic Realplayer.

Licensing TCPMP also seems a no-brainer. It's stable enough, it now just needs some UI improvements, and Palm are experts there. And if that comes on the device, then the Treo will have everything a mass-market user would want out of the box: a good phone, a good messenger, a good mp3 player and a good movie player. If they upgrade the camera to even 1 or 2 megapixels, then you can add "good camera" to that as well.

4: Almost as important as 3 in my eyes, probably more so in others: Marketing. Right now, it sucks. The Treo is marketed solely to business-types. The recent Aussie newspaper campaign on the launch of the 650 was pathetic - solely focussing on the email capabilities. No mention of the media capabilities, the fact that it's got the best SMS/MMS interface on any phone out there bar none (hugely important here in Oz)... They're not selling it hard enough, and they're not selling it to a broad swathe of people. One of my friends has decided they're getting a Treo as their next phones after playing with mine. The idea of only having to carry one device for everything is an appealing one. Palm need to hammer it.

What do you guys think?

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)