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Comments on: Palm Reports Q2 FY07 Results

New Palm Inc Logo ~ Click for largerPalm, Inc. today reported revenue of $392.9 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2007, ended Dec. 1. Smartphone sell-through for the period totaled a company record-high 617,000 units, up 42 percent year over year and up 8 percent sequentially.
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Allah be praised!

The_Voice_of_Reason @ 12/19/2006 5:32:09 PM # Q
Palm made $13 million profit over the past 3 months. Well done. I hope they'll post big profits again next quarter as the smartphone race heats up with the entry of several new competitors.


TVoR

RE: Allah be praised!
freakout @ 12/19/2006 6:08:08 PM # Q
Smartphones up by 42% from last year is a good number.

Query: was the $44mil cost of buying PalmOS back from ACCESS reflected in these figures?

RE: Allah be praised!
cervezas @ 12/19/2006 6:37:20 PM # Q
freakout wrote:
was the $44mil cost of buying PalmOS back from ACCESS reflected in these figures?

Yes. That cost was amortized over 5 years. Which is a pretty good deal if you consider that Palm's minimum payment to ACCESS was previously $42.5M for a single year, and that was without the enhanced development rights they now have.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Allah be praised!
freakout @ 12/19/2006 7:18:25 PM # Q
Sounds like a good deal indeed. Although disappointing in that we won't see a nice little $44mil spike in the numbers next time around. ;)
RE: Allah be praised!
retrospooty @ 12/20/2006 10:19:29 AM # Q
"Palm made $13 million profit over the past 3 months. Well done."

Not quite the gloom and doom that was predicted eh? =)

RE: Allah be praised!
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 12/20/2006 8:53:37 PM # Q

$13 million is chump channge. Especially when up until now Palm has had limited competition. I haven't gone over the filing or the conference call, but it would be interesting to see if Palm included revenues from presales of delayed devices to carriers in their "positive" section of the ledger. If they did, they're continuing their legacy of stealing from the future to make the present look good


TVoR

RE: Allah be praised!
goat_fajitas @ 12/21/2006 10:39:41 AM # Q
True, its not a lot, but it beats all your predictions of implosion. Companies do fudge numbers from one q to the next, but you cant do that for more than a quarter (unless maybe your Enron).

Next Q will have a large boost from Treo 680 and 750 sales (whether you personally approve of the specs or not). I wouldnt worry too much. with all the competition, they will not likely have a great year like 2005 ever again, but they will hold thier own in the market...

RE: Allah be praised!
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 12/21/2006 9:41:52 PM # Q
True, its not a lot, but it beats all your predictions of implosion.

You're correct - we were expecting a $10 million LOSS. Hmmmmmmmmmm...

Companies do fudge numbers from one q to the next, but you cant do that for more than a quarter (unless maybe your Enron).

You're not very familiar with Palm's history, are you? It's easy to go on, quarter after quarter manipulating the figures. EVENTUALLY, things catch up with you, but hopefully by then the company is bought out by another company with deep pockets tha can easily write off whatever charg is needed to bring the books back to some semblance of reality.

Next Q will have a large boost from Treo 680 and 750 sales (whether you personally approve of the specs or not). I wouldnt worry too much. with all the competition, they will not likely have a great year like 2005 ever again, but they will hold thier own in the market...

Wrong. How much is Palm making per Treo 680 sold compared to the 7xx series? What happens if the 680 merely cannibalizes sales of more lucrative Treo 7xx instead of growing the market? And what about all of the competitors entering the smartphone market? What will happen to Palm's slice of the pie (especially now that pie is not growing significantly)?

TVoR


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Net income in the fiscal quarter totaled $12.8 million

Gekko @ 12/19/2006 6:26:43 PM # Q

$12.8M? I think that's what Nokia spent on toilet paper last quarter for their employees to wipe their asses with.



RE: Net income in the fiscal quarter totaled $12.8 million
cervezas @ 12/19/2006 6:46:02 PM # Q
... which expenditure might account for why Nokia's profits fell 36M euros during that quarter.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Net income in the fiscal quarter totaled $12.8 million
twrock @ 12/19/2006 9:03:38 PM # Q
Maybe their employees started using the toilet three times more often?

I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
Reply to this comment

Colligan's word of the day: diversification

cervezas @ 12/19/2006 6:11:46 PM # Q
About every other word out of Ed Colligan's mouth when speaking of calendar year 2007 was "diversify," "diversification," "product differentiation," "broader product line." He even mentioned product differentiation in connection with "platform developments" and "new services." But he was stubbornly (and self-admittedly) tight-lipped about what this new product line is going to be.

After questions from two or three different callers the only things he let slip are that the "differentiation" has to do with "experience on the Internet," "out-of-box experience," and vague reference to a "range of applications in the pipeline."

I wasn't really expecting any big announcement about the Secret Third Business. But I got the feeling (one said as much) that the callers were a bit taken aback that Colligan didn't give the kind of "we'll release four new Treos" guidance that he gave last year. Instead just the word "diversification" repeated about 30 times.

The only other "color" he put on it (they love that word in these conference calls) was that Palm would be adding devices at both the high, "Mercedes" end and the low "graduating from feature phone" end.


David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

I smell another AUDREY...
Gekko @ 12/19/2006 6:52:52 PM # Q

I smell another Darwin Award winner...


http://news.com.com/2100-1040-254497.html



RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
SeldomVisitor @ 12/19/2006 7:09:13 PM # Q
I thought I heard something like "new form factor" but don't hold me to it!

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/19/2006 7:17:50 PM # Q
"new form factor"

You're right, that was in there, too.


David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
hkklife @ 12/19/2006 9:12:25 PM # Q
Palm's lineup for 2007?

My precictions:


#1 Mildly refreshed CDMA POS Treo. Basically the 680 formfactor with the 700p's camera + EVDO CDMA radio. Fixes all of the 700p's lingering bugs. Just one color (graphite). Available June-ish.

#2 A sleek/thin WinMob GSM Treo. Think a (chunkier) SLVR-type design with basically the same specs of the 750v, much like how the Palm V had nearly identical specs as the Palm III but just thinner, sleeker and with a rechargable battery.

#3 A single new POS PDA. I'd expect a mild refresh of either the E2 (2x the RAM, BT 1.2) or a TX2 (2 to 4gb internal flash drive) just to continue to justify some kind of retail handheld presence. A Z33 type device (<$100 with a DSTN color screen ,headphone jack & SD slot) wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility nor would two new POS PDAs. Either way, expect very minimal R&D expenditure on Palm's part here. Available in the usual March/April timeframe.

#4 The "new" secret third business Hawkins device ("STB"), available mid-summer. I expect the STB to be something larger than a LifeDrive but smaller than a Newton, running either a home-brewed Linux variant OR a very heavily hacked/modified (with M$' permission & assistance, of course) WinMob. I figure on a VGA screen and some large local storage medium (8gb of flash? an 8gb microdrive? a 20gb 1.8" Toshiba HD?) + the usual service-oriented stuff Beersie & Michael Mace have hinted at here previously. Either way, I'm expecting a lot of potential in theory but an actual shipping product marred by too much cost-cutting and a lack of "zen". O' tap counter and shirtpocket block o' wood, where are you now?

#5 The solid Treo 680/750 formfactor will also spread to the rest of the lineup and the WinMob-powered CDMA 700wx will probably receive a mild spec boost and the antenna-less formfactor alongside the Palm OS-based midyear refresh.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
Gekko @ 12/19/2006 9:30:06 PM # Q


who in their right mind will buy #3 and #4?

IMO, palm needs a RAZR-like-Treo with iPod/iTunes capabilities.

Also, for business, they need to work on this Email Sync business to be more like Blackberry - ie BULLETPROOF PUSH EMAIL. I hate the fact that once an hour - EVERY HOUR my Treo has to go fetch my emails for 3 minutes and thus limits my use. Is there a SOLID GOOD PUSH Corporate Email Client for Palm? If so, why does nobody use it?

Gekko: It's called ChatterPlus
mbuhboot @ 12/20/2006 2:30:10 AM # Q
great software - does everything in the background and does not check mail - it actually gets it in realtime..

I used it when I had a treo - loved it!

PA: and it does not require a service plan from the email vendor or special account

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
hkklife @ 12/20/2006 10:07:28 AM # Q
Gekko;
Remember, Palm basically enjoys a monopoly on the retail PDA market, especially in the <$200 area. Their neglected, aging lineup still enjoys reasonable sales and keeps Palm's name in front of people who might not walk into a cellular store very often.

Who would buy #3? The same people who still buy handhelds, as Ryan's notes below from the call mention 500k Palm handhelds sold. Those are 500k sold handhelds, primarily at retail, distributed between only three different models (Z22, E2, TX--not sure if the remaining LD stock is factored in there as well) that have ZERO marketing or advertising dollars behind them. On top of that, all of Palm's remaining handheld models are well over a year old and rather stingily spec'd.

If Palm can continue to tweak their devices here & there (add mp3 capabilities to the Z22, add internal flash to the TX, more RAM & better BT to E2) they can basically keep those 3 models chugging along generating some nice fallback revenue until the bottom falls out of the PDA market and/or Palm is acquired.

As for #4...I didn't predfict a sales success or even a minor hit. I just predicted that Hawkins will rally the troops one final time and resurrect glories past to get the STB to market in one form or another.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 10:27:25 AM # Q
hkklife wrote:
O' tap counter and shirtpocket block o' wood, where are you now?

He's making them out of foam instead of wood these days.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/23/technology/business2_workingtech0323/index.htm

Gekko wrote:

Is there a SOLID GOOD PUSH Corporate Email Client for Palm? If so, why does nobody use it?

Yes. Good Technology's client seems to be the front runner. And Colligan said yesterday that 10-12% of the Treos in use have active Good email accounts on them.

Personally, I cannot fathom why anyone wants push email. The whole point of email for me is that I can read it when I choose, not when the sender chooses. Why pay money to give away that control? Just goes to show you that in mobile everyone wants something different.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
freakout @ 12/20/2006 7:29:44 PM # Q
I've always felt the same about push email. To use a real-world analogy, push email is like the postman walking into your house uninvited and thrusting your mail right in your face, demanding to know why you haven't opened it yet. If you really need instant communication with someone who's carrying a phone, why not just call them?

Still, like you said, everyone wants something different.

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
jackpipe @ 12/20/2006 11:21:34 PM # Q
Product #4 (STB).
How is this description a third business? It's just a pda with a different OS.
No the new device would have to be something different, perhaps a watch, or an intelligent pen or some such, to warrant the 'third business' moniker.
Incidentally, I missed what the 1st and second were. pda and smartphone? Not too sure they're really separate busninesses these days.

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
Gekko @ 12/21/2006 5:36:46 AM # Q
>Personally, I cannot fathom why anyone wants push email.


because in my business, the fast eat the slow.



RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
freakout @ 12/21/2006 5:52:30 AM # Q
Cheetah-wrangling?
RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/21/2006 7:39:59 AM # Q
Maybe he's in the same business as Skippy. Those nurses can eat you alive if you don't help them get Elf Bowling running in IE7 within 5 minutes of them entering the support ticket.

For most business people and "knowledge workers" I know (certainly not all) the battle against distraction is a bigger problem in their day than responding to an email an hour after it was sent. I've worked in a couple companies where management really tried to train people NOT to check their email more than once every couple of hours because of the cost of the distraction. I believe much of the addiction to push email is just that: a psychological addiction to having constant connection that doesn't really translate into a business requirement.

If you're a network admin or a commodities trader that's admittedly another story. But look at Warren Buffet: he's never checked his email once. Ever in his whole life!

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
Gekko @ 12/21/2006 8:28:52 AM # Q

people like to do business with those that respond quickly and have a sense of urgency. this is especially true on the east coast. push email facilitates this.

i agree that for a nickel and dime programmer who works out of his basement in Nowhere, Colorado, push is not a requirement.



RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/21/2006 10:05:39 AM # Q
That's "nickel-and-dime-programmer-SIR" to you, buddy. ;-)

Wish I could work out of my basement in nowhere Colorado, but mainly I work out of Pikesoft's Chicago office these days.

You're right about one thing, though: urgency in software development is defined in terms of how fast you and your team deliver a bug-free product, not whether you can receive email notifications while you're on the john.



David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
craigdts @ 12/21/2006 2:16:42 PM # Q
I think that Ed was using" diversification" to mean differentiation, as in differentiating their product from other similar competitive products through the advertising campaign (e.g., our email, PIM, and internet is a better experience than Nokia's, Motorola's, etc).

Adding wifi (a mercedes) is not going to be enough for a carrier to add the phone to their portfolio. I wouldn't expect another GSM treo until mid '08. Nor, unfortunately, would I expect a new treo for CDMA (they need, at least the 680 form factor) until end of '07.

It's safe to say the 700w and 700p were not hits. Palm's design was 2 years old and need to move to a slim 680 form factor soon. However the carriers must be willing and they may drag their feet until they get rid of their inventory.

Palm wanted to play with the big boys, now they are and repeated product delays are proving they are not able to do so because of their size.

The only thing they can do to drive growth at this point is enter new product categories:
1) free feature phone - unfortunately palm is not innovative enough to make this move.
2) mini-tablet - which looks to be a flop. Why would I need that in addition to a laptop and a treo/pda?

They need to make a feature phone and sell it off their website until carriers adopt it.


RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/21/2006 2:44:59 PM # Q
craigdts wrote:
I think that Ed was using" diversification" to mean differentiation, as in differentiating their product from other similar competitive products through the advertising campaign (e.g., our email, PIM, and internet is a better experience than Nokia's, Motorola's, etc).

I don't. He used phrases like "broader product line," "platform development," "new services," "new form factors," and "range of applications in the pipeline." He talked about this being where a lot of their R&D budget is going, and explained his reluctance to disclose very much about what "broader product line" meant because of competitive concerns. It was actually pretty obvious that he was talking about diversification relative to what Palm sells today.

The only thing they can do to drive growth at this point is enter new product categories:
1) free feature phone

Not going to happen. Palm (correctly) sees their competitive advantage as being mobile computing devices, not commoditized feature phones.

2) mini-tablet - which looks to be a flop. Why would I need that in addition to a laptop and a treo/pda?

Based on your comments, you probably don't. But I think there are a lot of folks for whom none of those mobile devices are really cutting it. No one has come up with a really good answer for them. I'm one of those people.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/21/2006 3:03:26 PM # Q
Let's try that again:

craigdts wrote:

I think that Ed was using" diversification" to mean differentiation, as in differentiating their product from other similar competitive products through the advertising campaign (e.g., our email, PIM, and internet is a better experience than Nokia's, Motorola's, etc).

I don't. He used phrases like "broader product line," "platform development," "new services," "new form factors," and "range of applications in the pipeline." He talked about this being where a lot of their R&D budget is going, and explained his reluctance to disclose very much about what "broader product line" meant because of competitive concerns. It was actually pretty obvious that he was talking about diversification relative to what Palm sells today.

The only thing they can do to drive growth at this point is enter new product categories:
1) free feature phone

Not going to happen. Palm (correctly) sees their competitive advantage as being mobile computing devices, not commoditized feature phones.

2) mini-tablet - which looks to be a flop. Why would I need that in addition to a laptop and a treo/pda?

Based on your comments, you probably don't. But I think there are a lot of folks for whom none of those mobile devices are really cutting it. No one has come up with a really good answer for them. I'm one of those people.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
Gekko @ 12/21/2006 4:16:39 PM # Q
>That's "nickel-and-dime-programmer-SIR" to you, buddy. ;-)

when is the pikesoft IPO and subsequent acquistion of we-com???



RE: Colligan's word of the day: diversification
cervezas @ 12/21/2006 4:37:30 PM # Q
when is the pikesoft IPO and subsequent acquistion of we-com?

Are you crazy? Pikesoft is not acquiring we-com. They just acquired us. And let me tell you, I'm up to my armpits in eknarr right now.

Together we've completed the e-com circle with a people-driven we-com solution. In exchange for thoughts we can enhance your choices with a we-com virtual wallet, and...

Bah. I can't do it. How does e-tellurian come up with that sh*t?!

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Colligan's word of the day: hocus-pocus
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 12/21/2006 11:20:17 PM # Q
That's "nickel-and-dime-programmer-SIR" to you, buddy. ;-)

You'll ALWAYS be just "nickel-and-dime-programmer" to me, Beersy. Tour're not even a two-bit programmer, Bubba.

And let me tell you, I'm up to my armpits in eknarr right now.

Just sell the eknarr to Mike C. as a desert topping. eknarr... Mmmmmmm... Too bad about the smell.


TVoR

Reply to this comment

Media reaction negative, but what do they know anyway....

freakout @ 12/19/2006 7:00:53 PM # Q
But sales of Palm’s other new device, the colorful and cheaper Treo 650, did go on sale during the second quarter, yet didn’t manage to make up for the missing 750 model despite a recently announced $25 million worldwide marketing campaign, which includes “street teams” of Palm reps deployed across cities wearing Treo-branded clothing to generate buzz.

That little gem is from Forbes. Nevermind that the marketing campaign only began a week ago, or that the new Treo hasn't been on sale much longer than that, or that it's actually called the Treo 680, dork-meister...

Who are these people that get paid to comment on products they don't even pay attention to the name of? I want in on the analyst gig.

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650 ---> Crimson Treo 680

RE: Media reaction negative, but what do they know anyway....
SeldomVisitor @ 12/19/2006 7:10:06 PM # Q
> ...I want in on the analyst gig.

Ain't that the truth!

Gawd...

RE: Media reaction negative, but what do they know anyway....
ginsberg @ 1/1/2007 7:11:45 PM # Q
Rachel Rosmarin is a WRITER, not an analyst by any means. Nor was she quoting any analyst.
Reply to this comment

WM & Palm 50/50

whydidnt @ 12/19/2006 7:07:29 PM # Q
Also interesting that Colligan reported that WM and POS devices sales were about even. It sure didn't take long for WM to catch up to the POS. Looks like the decision to add WM devices was a rare good one by Palm management. How much longer will it be until WM completely dwarfs POS sales for Palm? I'm sure the pace of the move to WM devices will only quicken when the 750v makes it to the US.



RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/19/2006 7:24:42 PM # Q
He didn't say that WM and Palm Treos are 50/50. In fact, he explicitly said that they're not 50/50 in response to a question about WM sales being disappointing, but that they're still "head to head," whatever that means. Of course he'd probably have said that the mix would be more toward Windows Mobile if the 750 had made it on Cingular in time for Christmas.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/19/2006 8:22:47 PM # Q
head-to-head (hdt-hd)
adv. & adj.
1. In direct confrontation or conflict at close quarters: The two brothers went at it head-to-head. It was a head-to-head contest all the way.
2. Arranged in a line with the heads adjacent to each other: The bunk beds were set up head-to-head.
3. Running close together in the same direction; neck and neck: The horses ran mostly head-to-head.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/head-to-head

For his meaning, and in this context, head to head = neck and neck = equal.

The real question now is, will the cheap 680 expand the PalmOS side faster than the more powerful WM Treo 750. Only time can tell, and due to the price point difference its not really a fair fight.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/19/2006 8:29:57 PM # Q
due to the price point difference its not really a fair fight.

Aw, do I detect a pout?

Poor, poor Microsoft being discriminated against just because Windows Mobile needs 400MHz/128MB to be usable and costs $30 bucks a pop (or whatever they are charging these days to stop the bleeding). So unfair!

Just gotta yank your chain a little, Surer! :-)

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
twrock @ 12/19/2006 8:53:37 PM # Q
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the meaning of "head-to-head" was 50/50. It won't surprise me either when we can no longer purchase a "Palm OS" product. Hasn't experience taught us that it isn't about having a superior product? (However, in this case, you really can't "blame" MS for what happened to Palm; "self-inflicted" comes to mind.)

I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Gekko @ 12/19/2006 9:18:25 PM # Q
>The real question now is, will the cheap 680 expand the PalmOS side faster than the more powerful WM Treo 750.

it's only a matter of time until most/all enterprise customers choose WM devices. more powerful, more versatile, more flexible, and less clunky when integrated with ms exchange and other ms applications. the momentum and inertia is with wm and against pos.

"It's too late for Palm." - Michael Dell

"We usually overestimate the impact of new technologies in the short term and underestimate their impact over the long term." - Bill Gates

"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose." - Bill Gates

"Death can come swiftly to a market leader. By the time you have lost the positive-feedback cycle it's often too late to change what you've been doing, and all of the elements of a negative spiral come into play." - Bill Gates, "The Road Ahead", Chapter 3

"In this business, by the time you realize you're in trouble, it's too late to save yourself. Unless you're running scared all the time, you're gone." - Bill Gates


RE: WM & Palm 50/50
hkklife @ 12/19/2006 9:28:51 PM # Q
"We are well positioned whichever way the market goes" -Carl Yankowski ("Piloting Palm", p. 289)

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P
RE: WM & Palm 50/50
vorlon @ 12/20/2006 3:06:33 AM # Q
It's too late for Palm. - Michael Dell

http://accessories.us.dell.com/sna/productlisting.aspx?c=us&category_id=985&cs=19&l=en&~ck=anav

1980: There's nobody getting rich writing software that I know of.
1995: There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed.
2004: Spam will be a thing of the past in two years' time. - Bill Gates


RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/20/2006 5:36:31 AM # Q
Just gotta yank your chain a little, Surer! :-)

And here I was resisting ribbing you for lack of comprehension of the idiom of the English language.

Anyway, what I meant to say was that if the balance shifts toward PalmOS next year, it is more a reflection of price point than consumer preference, and not too much should be read into it.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 7:27:34 AM # Q
Heh, I know what "head to head" means Surer. I was simply pointing out that it's a little unclear what Colligan meant when he said they were "head to head" then explicitly said he did not mean they were "50/50".

What I think he meant is that he shouldn't have said they were head to head in the first place.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

680 sales better than 750 sales, nonUSA
SeldomVisitor @ 12/20/2006 8:44:55 AM # Q
== "...the 680...Frankly, internationally, it is the biggest
== seller..."

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/20/2006 9:02:23 AM # Q

When he said "we have more PalmOS products, the 680 $199" and then about WM "its hasn't gotten to the range of being 50-50 in our product line" it sounded more like he was talking about the number of separate device lines vs the actual number of devices sold.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/20/2006 9:07:03 AM # Q
I'll post a full transcript of that section later.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/20/2006 9:11:31 AM # Q
Charlie Wolf - Needham & Co.

Listening to your comments, it appears that the 700w may have been a disappointment. I was just curious as to how that product is selling versus the 700p. Then I have a follow-up.

Edward T. Colligan

Charlie, I would not categorize it that way at all. I think our Windows Mobile products are actually doing quite well. When you line them up against the Palm OS products, they are head to head at this point, you know, the 700w, the 700p.

Now, we have more Palm OS products. The 680, $199 new product coming out. That is certainly driving some sell-through numbers. They have not gotten to the range of being 50-50 in our product line, but it really has been a successful product for us. Frankly, internationally, it is the biggest seller.

I would not categorize it at all that way. If there is anything that you could look at and say we would like to see it happening faster, it is probably the adoption of exchange active think and that side of the e-mail solution that Microsoft delivers by larger businesses, really looking at that and saying yes, I want to adopt that and making that a more seamless, easy sale. Perhaps we expected that to happen a little more easily, but that has been mitigated by the fact that we have a wide range of solutions we work with.

In the end, I think we are pleased with what has happened with Windows Mobile. Our key thing is getting our differentiation across in the marketplace. We have put a significant investment in differentiating those products. People who use them recognize that differentiation. We have to rise above the noise and that is part of our marketing efforts, is to rise above the noise and make sure our differentiation is understood by the user going in to buy a Windows Mobile based product. That is what we have to make happen.

To me its pretty clear he is saying he is selling as many Treo 700w's as 700p's, and that WM is the biggest seller internationally, and that the cheap Treo 680 may distort these figures.

Surur


They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 9:19:38 AM # Q
Yeah, he could be saying that the 700p and 700w are about 50/50 with more W in Europe and more P in the US. I think we agree, now that we have the transcript: he's not saying Treos as a whole are 50/50 between the two operating systems, in significant degree because of the 680.

Seldom, he didn't mean that the 680 is the biggest seller internationally, although it sort of reads that way in the transcript. If you listen it's clear that the mention of the 680 was parenthetical and he was referring to the 750v as a datapoint for how well the WM products are doing.

As Palm sells more and more Treos outside the US this will probably push the W part of the mix up, and as they sell more into the entry level this will push the P part of the mix up. Anyone's guess is as good as mine what this will mean for the breakdown in the future, but I think it's clear that for the foreseeable future both platforms will remain important to Palm's overall Treo strategy.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
SeldomVisitor @ 12/20/2006 9:21:03 AM # Q
No, I think he switched the topic from "700W" to "W" and grouped the "700WX" results into his answer.

Wolf's question addressed the broken 700W, his answer avoided that.

IM-Oh-So-HO, of courwse.

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
SeldomVisitor @ 12/20/2006 9:42:26 AM # Q
Pkay, I see what you are saying but I believe he was saying "W" was the biggest seller where "W" encompasses all Windows TREOs, not 750V was biggest seller.


RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 10:18:52 AM # Q
Yeah, that could be. Still gotta believe the 750v is the main reason WM is doing well in Europe right now.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: WM & Palm 50/50
Surur @ 12/20/2006 12:30:30 PM # Q
Actually if you read it properly, he says where the two OS's go head to head (700w/p) they are equal. This excludes 750v, which is not head to head with any POS device. He then says WM is the biggest seller over seas, and that the cheap 680 is moving many units.

Therefore they are POS=WM for the 700 devices, 750v clearly outships 680 overseas and 680 selling very well in USA.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: WM & Palm 50/50
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 1:37:20 PM # Q
Therefore they are POS=WM for the 700 devices, 750v clearly outships 680 overseas and 680 selling very well in USA.

Isn't that what I said? It's what I meant, anyway.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Reply to this comment

Some notes from the call

Ryan @ 12/19/2006 7:16:36 PM # Q
eh I'm too sick (zombie cold) right now to put an article together but here are a few notes from the call.

- 617k Treo's sold
- 500k handhelds
- rev spilt was 72% smartphones, 28% handhelds
- Treo 750 will ship on a US carrier this quarter (ie Cingular) and is hsdpa compatible (but he did not commit to that say it is capable)
- Palm OS deal was a great financial bargain, and gives them the flexibility and confidence to continue to develop on Palm OS
- said they'd like to improve the Internet and out of box experience of Garnet
- A "broader" product line is coming, like David said diversification was the keyword

RE: Some notes from the call
freakout @ 12/19/2006 7:30:54 PM # Q
- Palm OS deal was a great financial bargain, and gives them the flexibility and confidence to continue to develop on Palm OS
- said they'd like to improve the Internet and out of box experience of Garnet

All together now - UMTS! UMTS! UMTS!

RE: Some notes from the call
twrock @ 12/19/2006 9:07:48 PM # Q
"Zombie cold". If it's the same one I had last week, I pity you.

I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: Some notes from the call
Gekko @ 12/19/2006 9:25:22 PM # Q

R - i hope you feel better. eat some chicken soup, drink some OJ, and get plenty of sleep.



RE: Some notes from the call
vorlon @ 12/20/2006 2:08:04 AM # Q
Half a million handhelds is very good for "dead" PDAs, considering they're old, there's only three models (no VGA, GPS, phone, camera, voice memo, keyboard...) and there's been almost zero marketing.

Thanks for the info! Most sites missed it... Is there any more info, how many Zs and Ts?

drink some OJ

(cheking if the poster is VampireLestat) Oh, THAT OJ... yes, drink orange juice!
RE: 680s - all colors - $199 - per CEO
cervezas @ 12/20/2006 10:44:28 AM # Q
Yes, now that Colligan has said it I can confirm that Cingular is going to have the colored models, too. Not sure when, though.


David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Some notes from the call
freakout @ 12/20/2006 4:57:31 PM # Q
^^ The colours - Crimson, at least - really do look great. I was surprised that none of the carriers so far have said they're going to sell at least one alternate colour. Not even Arctic, which is about as unadventurous as you can get these days.

freakout wants a Blue or Black Treo next time please Palm.

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650 ---> Crimson Treo 680

RE: 680s - all colors - $199 - per CEO
SeldomVisitor @ 12/25/2006 9:31:39 AM # Q
PALM has changed the wording on their website re colored TREO 680s - no longer says something like "only available unlocked".

Reply to this comment

Palm-a-go-go!

surfmaniac @ 12/20/2006 4:06:55 PM # Q
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't they sell almost 620,000 Treos without the benefit of the 680 or the 750 (except for select Euro markets starting in the middle of FY Q2?)

RE: Palm-a-go-go!
freakout @ 12/22/2006 4:07:45 AM # Q
Yep. And they're quite pricey too. If over a half a million people are willing to fork out $600 for a Treo (and almost 6 million people so far, if the counter at Treonauts is accurate), then I reckon the much more attractively priced 680 will go like gangbusters. I wonder how long will it be before they have a CDMA version and they can cover both wireless markets with this price point?
RE: Palm-a-go-go!
surfmaniac @ 12/23/2006 3:37:17 PM # Q
Ya, I agree. I think the key for them is to expand beyond the high end business ('yuppie) market and to go for the much broader comsumer market, which I think the 680 will do. And then they can finally increase their top line and their market share(and hopefully the bottom line will follow as well.) Here in LA, already starting to see a few of the colored ones (harbinger perhaps)...


Reply to this comment

Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue

Gekko @ 12/21/2006 8:54:05 PM # Q

BlackBerry maker beats Street; stock jumps
Research In Motion posts higher profit and forecasts an even better fourth quarter.
December 21 2006: 5:30 PM EST

TORONTO (Reuters) -- Research In Motion Ltd. reported a higher third-quarter profit Thursday that beat expectations and forecast an even stronger fourth quarter due to strong demand for its BlackBerry hand-held e-mail devices.

RIM (Charts), which is in the midst of reviewing its stock option granting practices, said it earned $176 million, or 93 cents a share, for the three months ended Dec. 2. That was up from a profit of $120 million, or 61 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier.

Adjusted to exclude regular stock option expenses, RIM reported a profit of 95 cents a share. Revenue soared 49 percent to $835.1 million.

According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting earnings of 93 cents per share before one-time items on revenue of about $815.4 million.

The strong results and forecast sent shares of RIM soaring to $140.75 in after-hours trade, up $7.05, or 5 percent, from its regular close of $133.70 on Nasdaq.

The company, which is based in Waterloo, Ontario, said about 875,000 BlackBerry subscriber accounts were added during the third quarter. The total subscriber account base was about 7 million at the end of the quarter.

"[Subscriber] numbers were fantastic. They demolished expectations. We were the high on the Street at 850,000 [subscriber additions] but 875,000 is obviously outstanding," said Peter Misek, analyst at Canaccord Adams.

In September, RIM told the markets to expect third-quarter revenue of $780 million to $820 million, along with about 800,000 subscriber additions. It said net earnings should be between 88 and 95 cents per share, and adjusted earnings should come in at between 90 and 97 cents a share.

"New product launches during the past few months have exceeded our expectations and we look forward to continuing this momentum into the new year," RIM co-CEO Jim Balsillie said.

The company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter in the range of $900 million to $940 million. It sees subscriber account additions in the range of 950,000 to 975,000 and a profit between 92 cents and 99 cents a share.

"Guidance for next quarter is above the Street," said Misek.

He added that "the only little wrinkle is that margins ticked down but we think that's a combination of a write-off of old models and probably a pick-up in spending to launch the new handsets."

RIM's gross margin was 54.2 percent, down from 55.8 percent in the year-earlier period.

Shares of rival Palm (Charts) fell in after-hours trade Thursday.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/21/technology/bc.rim.results2.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006122117



RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
freakout @ 12/21/2006 9:09:57 PM # Q
Seems the Pearl has been a nice little hit for them. Palm should be paying attention. Small 'n stylish sells!

I wouldn't give up my so-nice-to-hold 680 for the world, but plenty of people are looking for a user-friendly phone with extra functionality and without bulk. Give us a small Treo, Palm.

RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
SeldomVisitor @ 12/22/2006 8:28:49 AM # Q
The RIMM earnings CC was interesting in a number of ways - not just the dramatic results but the words out of management that sounded, IMHO, like DIRECT jabs at what PALM says they're going to be doing.

In particular, RIMM said "In Europe 20 carriers have already launched Pearl" while PALM says by June 2007 20 carriers will launch the 680 worldwide.

They also mentioned Yahoo, Google, etc etc etc - exactly like the "passion brands" that PALM mentioned.

And they more than casually mentioned Cingular, too!

And more...

Perhaps it's all coincidence.

Perhaps not...

RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
palmato @ 12/22/2006 10:06:56 AM # Q
Let's not forget that RIMM not only sells hardware but email (et al) subscription services too. Palm isn't doing that, unfortunately shall I add. AFAIK their enterprise solutions, if they even exist, don't have quite the same appeal of RIMM's.

It would be interesting to have the breakdown of their revenues, between devices and services. In any case I suspect they do substantially increase their margins.


--------------------------
Hey Admin: Why do we have to keep two profiles?

RIM is IRRELEVANT. No more comments about RIM please.
twrock @ 12/29/2006 9:52:37 PM # Q
thank you. ;-)

I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
SeldomVisitor @ 12/30/2006 8:40:15 AM # Q
If RIMM puts people in clown suits (*) on the streets of a few major cities soon, it's relevant again.

=======

Everytime I type about those clown suits for some reason THIS:

-- http://www.governmentgrant.com/Images/youveseenhim2.jpg

pops in mind...giggle.


RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
e_tellurian @ 12/31/2006 4:24:48 PM # Q
If so $30,000,000 belongs to Canadian tax payers. We need/want to build affordable housing for the people of Vancouver, BC.

Peace,

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
e_tellurian @ 12/31/2006 4:29:08 PM # Q
Victoria BC too.

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

E-T
Gekko @ 1/1/2007 7:52:51 PM # Q

E-T - check your email. you need to start your own blog.



RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
e_tellurian @ 1/1/2007 9:33:23 PM # Q
Happy new year,

Please send to e-tellurian@hotmail.com

Thanks,

E-T



e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

E-T
Gekko @ 1/1/2007 10:02:05 PM # Q

E-T - if you build it they will come:

http://wordpress.com/

http://wordpress.com/signup/



RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
e_tellurian @ 1/22/2007 1:34:22 PM # Q
i am trying to create employment for many people still twiddling our thumbs. The purpose of the work is done (equity) now we need to convert this equity into a form of trade that offers accommodation, food, clothing and disposable income for anything peaceful i choose such as the return of the custom wedding rings.

We have shared our thoughts with many people as many people have risked their thought with us. So it seems honorable and logical to assure the core is not left out as we go forward. The purpose in a we-com industry is so no thoughts/people are left out.

Peace,

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

RE: Research In Motion posts $176M profit on $835M revenue
Gekko @ 1/22/2007 3:42:36 PM # Q
Reply to this comment

An Apple phone is no slam-dunk

Gekko @ 12/22/2006 3:28:08 PM # Q

An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
The wireless world can be a harsh place. Just ask Sony, says Fortune's Stephanie Mehta.
By Stephanie N. Mehta, Fortune senior writer
December 22 2006: 11:31 AM EST

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- A well-regarded computer and consumer-electronics maker plunges into the competitive wireless market with a combination music player/cell phone. The company's loyal users can barely wait to try the new gadget, and analysts predict the device will deliver on the long-promised marriage of music and mobility.

We're describing, of course, a phone Sony (Charts) made for Japan's NTT DoCoMo, circa 2000. But you'd be forgiven for thinking we were talking about Apple's rumored wireless phone, which could be launched as early as next month.


http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/22/technology/pluggedin_mehta_apple_phone.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2006122211



RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
Foo Fighter @ 12/22/2006 4:50:49 PM # Q
Pfft! That's what everyone said about the iPod at the time of its introduction. -

"Great product, but Apple is late to market." "Apple will only be a niche player in this space".

et cetera, et cetera.

Besides which these speculations are valueless until we actually see the device and what it offers. Even talking about the iPhone (which isn't even going to be the official name) is an exercise in futility.

Wait for January 9, and all will be revealed.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
cervezas @ 12/22/2006 5:36:16 PM # Q
Wait for January 9, and all will be revealed.

Pfft! Last Friday it was "wait for Dec 18, and all will be revealed."

;-)

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
freakout @ 12/22/2006 6:27:39 PM # Q
Let's not forget the DAP market was still in its infancy when the iPod was introduced, giving Apple a chance to dominate with a single killer product. Since 2001 Apple has sold about 70 million iPods. The mobile phone market, by comparison, shifts billions of units in a year and has many entrenched and highly competitive players, many of whom are offering mp3 abilities already.

iPhone will be successful, but anyone expecting iPod-style domination will be disappointed.

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650 ---> Crimson Treo 680

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
PenguinPowered @ 12/23/2006 3:57:27 AM # Q
I don't have the numbers handy and I'm too lazy to look them up, but I don't think the phone industry pushes billions of phones a year. That would pretty much imply every mobile phone user gets a new phone every year, and I don't think the market's quiet that saturated.

However, your main point still stands. iCall is probably not going to be a market dominator in a market as large and vigorous as the cell market that's already home to the likes of Sony-Erickson, Motorola, and Nokia.

On the other hand, the iTunes store is going to be a big seller for people considering iCall, and will certainly help Apple sell more than a few, provided they actually do produce the silly thing.


May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
freakout @ 12/23/2006 6:39:42 AM # Q
I don't have the numbers handy and I'm too lazy to look them up, but I don't think the phone industry pushes billions of phones a year.

I googled "how big is the worldwide cell phone market?" and turned up this report.

http://www.electronics.ca/reports/wireless/cell_phones.html

This report forecasts the big trends for wireless handsets over the next five years. Currently, this is over a $300 billion business selling over 2 billion units annually.

However, other reports said that there were only 1.8 billion subscribers worldwide, so as you say the numbers don't seem to quite match up. Anyone care to pony up $3,495 for the report? ;)

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
Gekko @ 12/27/2006 8:19:52 AM # Q

this is no good. Jobs could hang for this if true.


Apple reportedly falsified options documents
Web site says federal investigation could leave company open to criminal prosecution; shares lose 2.7% in Frankfurt trading.
December 27 2006: 8:12 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal prosecutors are reportedly investigating stock option administration documents at Apple Computer that were apparently falsified by company officials, according to a published report.

The Recorder, an online publication of legal news Web site Law.com, reported the allegation of the false documents, citing unidentified people with knowledge of Apple's situation.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/27/technology/apple_options/index.htm?postversion=2006122708



RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
SeldomVisitor @ 12/27/2006 1:06:16 PM # Q
Nah - he's probably totally clean - and has hired independent counsel to remove himself from any AAPL soiling!

Report: Jobs' Options Unapproved
Gekko @ 12/27/2006 10:52:07 PM # Q

I hope they make the prick resign!

Report: Jobs' Options Unapproved
By TSC Staff
12/27/2006 9:14 PM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/techgames/10329873.html

Apple (AAPL) CEO Steve Jobs was given 7.5 million unauthorized stock options in 2001, according to a report published late Wednesday.

The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported in its online edition that records that purported to show that a full board of directors meeting had occurred to approve "Jobs' remuneration, as required by Apple's procedures, were later falsified."

The sources said that those records are among the pieces of evidence being weighed by the Securities and Exchange Commission as it decides whether to pursue a case against Apple or any individual regarding the backdating matter.



RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
SeldomVisitor @ 12/29/2006 8:45:23 AM # Q
Hmmm...the company has expressed complete confidence in Jobs - not good.

Sorta like Bush expressing complete confidence in Rumsfeld...

RE: An Apple phone is no slam-dunk
cervezas @ 12/29/2006 10:40:58 AM # Q
...not good. Sorta like Bush expressing complete confidence in Rumsfeld...

Well, that was good if you were a Democrat. It helped hand you the House and Senate.

It's that whole dialectic thing. Happens in the tech world, too.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Reply to this comment

The secrets to Blackberry's success

Gekko @ 12/23/2006 6:01:28 AM # Q

The secrets to Blackberry's success

Is there a company with a greater rabbit-to-hat ratio than Research in Motion (RIMM)? The Blackberry maker yesterday announced astonishing preliminary third quarter results, including a hefty 49% jump in revenue over last year's third quarter. Moreover, the Ontario-based company says that it addded 875,000 new Blackberry subscribers during the quarter, smashing their - and indeed everyone's - projections.

How do they do it? Ask your friends who've been using a Blackberry for years, and you'll hear little more than curse-laden complaints about the device's clunkiness. Skeptics have long predicted that the Treo and other handheld devices would surpass the Blackberry, and the company has been plagued by patent disputes. Even yesterday's statement noted that RIM "is completing a management-initiated, voluntary review of RIM's historical option granting practices," which sounds like a precursor to someone spending more time with his family. After some initial euphoria in after-hours trading Thursday, RIM stock was in the red by midday Friday.

But only the foolhardy would count this company out. Over at Bloggingstocks,
Eric Buscemi attributes RIM's continued success to the fact that "selling a wireless data device is difficult and barriers to entry high". Well...yes. But The Browser thinks the real key here is that RIM managed to do a thing we thought we'd never see: they cracked the foreign market. Europeans and, to a lesser extent, Asians were never as interested in non-phone devices (like pagers) as Americans were; if they want portable e-mail and Web capability, they want 'em on their phones. That, we thought, meant that Blackberrys would never catch on - who wants to carry around two devices?

But RIM was a step ahead of us; not only does The Pearl totally pass as a phone, but beginning in 2004, RIM began licensing its services to phone companies abroad, so you didn't need to own a Blackberry in order to have Blackberry functions. Those steps have paid off handsomely; according to RIM CFO Dennis Kavelman in Thursday's research call, a full 27% of RIM sales now come from outside North America. And so, as much as we still think the stock's ridiculously overpriced, there is still ample room for this company to grow.

Posted by Jim Ledbetter

http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2006/12/secrets-to-blackberrys-success.html


RE: The secrets to Blackberry's success
AdamaDBrown @ 12/24/2006 4:44:33 PM # Q
There's no real secret to RIM's success, as far as I'm concerned. It's quite simple: they were the first company to produce a serious push-email solution. And in my opinion, they're still riding that one. Yes, they've produced some newer form-factors like the 7100 and the Pearl, but their bread and butter is still email. How many customers really buy Blackberries for their designs, versus buying them for email?

Reply to this comment

New Phones Target Motorola's Rusty Razr

Gekko @ 12/26/2006 11:14:04 PM # Q

New Phones Target Motorola's Rusty Razr
By Scott Moritz
Senior Writer
12/26/2006 7:17 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/techstockupdate/10329299.html

Cell-phone makers want to make 2007 the year they finally cut Motorola's (MOT) Razr down to size.


Since its 2004 introduction, the world's best-selling handset has sold more than 50 million copies -- while remaking the entire mobile phone industry in its unforgiving skinny image.

But now, the Razr, which fetched $600 in its must-have days, is moving into middle age as a freebie in promotional giveaways by cell-phone carriers. And with the Razr losing its icon status, some new models from rivals like Apple (AAPL) , Nokia (NOK) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are angling to become the next top seller among all cell phones.

If the buzz factor is any clue, Apple's (AAPL) heavily hyped, as yet unnamed iPod phone may have the best shot at taking the sales crown.

An informal survey of cell-phone industry insiders and analysts indicates that an iPod phone introduction, expected sometime in 2007, will generate the most chatter.

"The iPhone will certainly be a winner from a publicity point of view," says Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder, referring to a commonly used term for the coming iPod phone. (Apple is apparently unable to use the name iPhone, since the term has already trademarked by Cisco (CSCO) .)

Still, Snyder notes that whether Apple can turn the attention into blockbuster sales is another question altogether.

"Internally, they are predicting 20 million phones will get sold in the first year," Snyder says. "That's going to be tough. Razr did 9 million in its first year. I think they might get 5 million to 7 million."

Indeed, knocking off the Razr is not going to be easy.

There's never been anything like the Razr in cell-phone history, say industry watchers.

Two years ago, after a seemingly endless series of blunders, Motorola had fell to third place in handset market share, behind Korean tech powerhouse Samsung.

Motorola CEO Ed Zander, then newly installed, made a big bet on a half-inch thick folding phone with an IM kidspell name. When it hit the market in time for the holidays, the Razr became a fashion accessory in its own right. With its record sales, it single-handedly lifted Motorola out of the doldrums.

Razr's success hasn't exactly expired yet. Variants like Krzr and Slvr may help sustain the legacy -- but the passion for Motorola's funny names, if not its thin phones, has decidedly cooled as fashion-fickle consumers look for the next hot thing.

Prices of Razrs have dropped to zero, and even the newer, heavily touted Krzr has had its price cut in half in some recent promotions. The pricing trends say a lot about slumping demand, say analysts. And while the small, or even free, price tags keep the sales volume up, it doesn't do much for the bottom line.

"Motorola would die to hear people say the Razr is getting old," says American Technology Research analyst Albert Lin. "But the total saturation and prices falling to free gives one a feeling of oldness."

The stage is set for a new star now that the Razr is dimming, and the timing for Apple could hardly be better.

Adding music to mobile phones seems inevitable. But easy-to-use music phones remain a rarity.

The trick for Apple, say industry analysts, will be adding a good phone to an already exceptional music player at an affordable price.

That's expecting a lot, say skeptics. But fans point to the 40 million or so iPod users who may be inclined to consider the iPod phone when replacement time comes.

And while Apple is stealing all the attention, the big phone makers aren't exactly folding up shop.

After watching Motorola take over the design leadership, Nokia has finally gone thin. The Finnish phone giant is expected to announce its N76 phone in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Analysts familiar with the phone say it is Razr-slim with a high-resolution screen and a 3-megapixel camera, for under $300.

And speaking of consumer electronics, the cell phone joint venture between Sony (SNE) and Ericsson (ERIC) has already generated a lot of interest in its Walkman phones. Coming soon, an upcoming model will add a Sony Cyber Shot camera.

"I think Sony Ericsson's Walkman line will be the biggest story of 2007," says Sanford Bernstein analyst Paul Sagawa. "It's already selling well with a lot of momentum."

And if email phones finally have a shot at cracking the mass market, RIM's diminutive Pearl might be the gem to do it. Its big screen, thin body and camera pack a lot of appeal into a small form. Already a small hit with its controversial "sure-type" keypad that packs two letters on one key, analysts say plans are in the works for a crowd-pleading qwerty-style keyboard.

Meanwhile, some are already saying reports of the Razr's demise have been exaggerated.

"We've already written Razr's obituary," says Charter's Snyder. "But it is still the best-selling phone -- especially at lower prices."



RE: New Phones Target Motorola's Rusty Razr
freakout @ 12/27/2006 2:05:58 AM # Q
50 million RAZRS since 2004 vs. 70 million iPods since 2001... and without Apple even having announced a product, they're saying it "may have the best shot to take the crown"?

Sheesh. When did skepticism die?


Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650 ---> Crimson Treo 680

RE: New Phones Target Motorola's Rusty Razr
Gekko @ 12/27/2006 7:51:17 AM # Q

RAZR'S edge
How a team of engineers and designers defied Motorola's own rules to create the cellphone that revived their company.
By Adam Lashinsky, FORTUNE senior writer
June 1, 2006: 3:29 PM EDT

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/31/magazines/fortune/razr_greatteams_fortune/index.htm



Reply to this comment

New industry

e_tellurian @ 1/22/2007 1:47:08 PM # Q
Smart phones are done, perhaps it is time for new choices that enhance existing choices?

Any thoughts?

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

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