Comments on: Analyst: Sprint Stores Being Drip-Fed New Pre's

Pre drip fedJ.P. Morgan analyst Paul Coster chimes in this morning with a new report on the Palm Pre stock situation. First off, Mr. Coster estimates that Palm and Sprint have shipped at least 100,000 devices so far. He estimates that for the launch weekend the average Sprint store received about 40 units, with 2-5 at the average Radio Shack store and 2-4 at the typical Best Buy. He says that about 50,000 more units have shipped since the weekend, with Sprint stores getting about 10-15 units every 2 days that are mostly going to customers on waiting lists. (via Tech Trader Daily.)

"Sprint stores are being drip-fed devices without much certainty or uniformity regarding timing and quantity." Coster's advice to people who want to buy the phone is to head for the local Radio Shack; he says the stores "seem to have been neglected by eager early adopters."

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That s to say...

SeldomVisitor @ 6/12/2009 11:46:28 AM # Q
...there was no sellout.

== "...Coster's advice to people who want to
== buy the phone is to head for the local
== Radio Shack; he says the stores "seem
== to have been neglected by eager early
== adopters..."

has ANYONE mentioned Walmart recently?

RE: That s to say...
nastebu @ 6/12/2009 1:01:25 PM # M Q
To be sure, those figures are very good. It means that the 50,000 figure is quite plausible, and that there is a nicesteady demand.
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whiteasianrose @ 6/12/2009 1:46:05 PM # Q
100000 in a week? vey nice job palm+sprint
RE: nice
hkklife @ 6/12/2009 2:09:06 PM # Q
i think the only stores consistently sold out are Best Buy Mobile locations, what with the combination of limited supply and the undeniable appeal of the instant rebate (vs. mail-in elsewhere).

Sprint was very, very foolish (and greedy) to not have a change of heart at the 11th hour as rumored and make that $100 MIR and instant one. We now have the combination of Blbackberry Storms (FREE to Reward Zone Silver members, $50ish to regular RZ members) at BB and the forthcoming iPhone 3.0 upgrade + 3GS hardware to steal more of Palm & Sprint's thunder.

Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?

RE: nice
2klbs @ 6/12/2009 4:54:52 PM # Q
100k Shipped does not equal sold-

These numbers don't mean much without knowing the pull-through of units sold vs shipped, are just plain sold. Once those are out over a few weeks of straddling the iPhone update release, we'll get a better idea what the momentum is and if they are carving the niche they are trying for.

Anyone know when next projection adjustments reporting due for Palm? Do I remember correctly that it's coming up soon? Will be telling to ask if net income numbers adjusted for rebates paid or if adjusted for reserves to pay MIL's the following quarter.

Anybody know the mechanics of the BB waiver of MIL vs instant- how are they getting reimbursed on back end?

Also interested to hear PIC-readers early adopter impressions after the first week honeymoon (I've been following PreCentral).
End of Contract with Sprint- to become a "Pre-vert" or go Android?

RE: nice
CFreymarc @ 6/13/2009 12:46:30 AM # Q
This is no surprise at all. Artificial scarcity, if proven right, is a federal trade offense if it can be proven that the supplier is intentionally holding back capacity to manipulate stock price. A hard prosecution to do for sure. I would not be surprised if some Palm council told 'em how to do this just right to aviod any charges. In these cases, ignorance could be an effective defense.
RE: nice
SeldomVisitor @ 6/13/2009 3:50:31 AM # Q
Palm's earnings call and Q&A will be on the 25th. At that time they MAY announce sell-in or sell-through of "smartphones" and "PDAs" but, IMHO, will NOT mention individual devices. Depending on which number sounds better they'll mention sell-in OR sell-through; I suspect sell-in this time around (across devices) is a much better number so am expecting that number to be announced. I seriously doubt they'll mention sell-through for the Pre for the launch day or week under ANY circumstances since it won't be an impressive number even if you base pessimism off "unable to get devices to venues" rather than "unable to get customers".

It's important to remember that the launch day sold to the unadvertised early-adopter crowd only, that a couple days later Apple showed their new devices INCLUDING the el-cheapo iPhone, that the Palm Fanboy forums rapidly filled up with complaints about less-than-stellar construction, overheating, lack of applications, crashes, etc posts (and, of course, lots of gushing posts, too, but THAT is standard stuff that folks who have NOT bought yet pay little attention to) AND that Palm continued to lack supply to venues. All those conspire to LOWER, not RAISE, followon sales.

One "analyst" says by sometime today another 50,000 will have been sold through (note that the did NOT say, no matter how many times the Me-Too media incorrectly reports it (like PIC!), that the extra 50,000 ALREADY sold through - he said "by Saturday"). Based on what I've read of Fanboy "availability" posts I do not believe that number (take 1400 stores, multiply by followon devices per store average; no one is claiming restocks at BestBuys or RadioShacks or yet-unmentioned-totally Walmarts).

RE: nice
DarthRepublican @ 6/13/2009 7:21:36 AM # M Q
Speaking as an early adopter fanboy, here's my experience. Saturday, Launch Day, I was at a small Sprint store with about 30 guys. (And we were all guys btw.) We were told they had 32 and asked to sign up for service. Wait times were about 30 minutes. While helping customers, the Sprint people made a point of loudly mentioning when reports came in about which local Sprint and Best Buy stores were selling out.

While I waited, I got to play with a flaky demo unit and backed out of buying that day. As far as I could tell, I was the only fanboy who did so.

I went back to the same store on Wednesday and got to play with another demo unit which ran much better. I'm guessing that the demo program which was running on the demo units on Saturday but not on Wednesday was the culprit for the initial flakyness. In any case, they were out of stock so I signed up to be told when a new shipment came in. I also signed up at a bigger Sprint corporate store which was also out of stock. I went home and when I was literally a block away from my house, I get a call from the corporate store telling me that their shipment has just arrived. I'm not going all the way downtown again....

On Thursday I go back yet again to the smaller Sprint store. Their shipment hasn't arrived yet so I sign up again and walk four blocks to the corporate store. Their shipment has arrived and I wait about 15 minutes for a CSR to become available. The buying and set up process takes another 15 minutes. CSR offers me a complementary coffee from Starbucks next door. Makes lame quip about it being part of "ReadyNow" experience. Near the end of this process I get a call from the smaller store. They had finally gotten their shipment.

So my experience would seem to mirror the write up. Palm and Sprint are clearly dripping out the Pre in small batches which means that are selling out quickly. The question of whether this is because of parts shortages or an artificial shortage created to generate buzz, I'll leave to the impartial court of opinion here at PIC.

RE: nice
jca666us @ 6/13/2009 7:47:19 AM # Q
So, how do you like it? any overheating, dead pixels, mysterious shutoffs, etc?
RE: nice
sbono13 @ 6/13/2009 9:00:45 AM # Q
"Depending on which number sounds better they'll mention sell-in OR sell-through; I suspect sell-in this time around (across devices) is a much better number so am expecting that number to be announced. I seriously doubt they'll mention sell-through for the Pre for the launch day or week under ANY circumstances"

This is probably not the venue for this discussion, but Palm has been providing both sell in and sell through for years.

They will have no choice but to provide Pre-specific shipment results going forward because those shipments will get different accounting treatment (as long as Pre is the only webOS device). But you are right, probably won't mention sell-through, since none sold-through in Q4.


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The Usual Seldomvisitorish Questions

DarthRepublican @ 6/13/2009 5:31:15 PM # Q
>So, how do you like it? any overheating, dead pixels, mysterious shutoffs, etc?

I like the Pre a lot thank you but do keep in mind that I've only had it a couple of days. So far I'm enjoying it, much faster than my T-Mobile G1 while maintaining the G1's superior web browsing experience - maybe even improving on it a little. It does get a little warm when it is being charged, I wouldn't call it overheating because it is only noticeable but not uncomfortable. (Now my HP laptops, they overheat.)

I actually have had a couple of crashes, one which involved trying to juggle several applications while recharging through USB and playing back an MP3 song. I'm not exactly sure why it occurred and it hasn't re-occurred but it was nasty and it did require me to pull the battery. The second occurred with Classic a couple of web pages, and the Memo app open. An email came in and I kept tapping on its dashboard icon with no response until the device reset. I think that the best thing to do when your Pre starts to feel sluggish is to back off and let it be for a couple of seconds.

The Pre restarted and and I went back to what I was doing which was learning how cut and paste works. It is a little different from the way that it was on the PalmOS and so far it's my biggest complaint about the device. I blogged about with all the bloody details here:

The micro-USB cover is pretty annoying but so is the cover on the T-Mobile G1. The keyboard is a bit cramped but it's also extremely familiar from my Treo days so I've gotten used to it quickly. So far I'm pretty happy. We'll see how long the honeymoon lasts.
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre

RE: The Usual Seldomvisitorish Questions
jca666us @ 6/13/2009 10:26:52 PM # Q
Glad to hear actually. I wish the keyboard were landscape and larger - or that they had a virtual keyboard.

Hopefully, they can get the crashes resolved in future updates.

Maybe by versiuon 2 or 3 i'll pick one up - but webos is definitely off to a good start.

RE: The Usual Seldomvisitorish Questions
DarthRepublican @ 6/14/2009 12:06:51 AM # M Q
Landscape keyboards are overrated. My T-Mobile G1 has a landscape keyboard and I missed typing one-handed on my Treo. I even wrote a blog about how much I missed my Treo's keyboard. While the Pre's keyboard is not as good as my Treo's, I can do most things - including type one-handed with it.
RE: The Usual Seldomvisitorish Questions
jca666us @ 6/14/2009 12:40:37 AM # Q
maybe overrated to you - for me the pre's keyboard is it's weak spot - ironic when you consider it has a physical keyboard.
RE: The Usual Seldomvisitorish Questions
SeldomVisitor @ 6/14/2009 3:54:35 AM # Q
Not to point out what should be very obvious, but the "Seldomvisitorish questions" seem to be cropping up from quite a few people here and elsewhere, huh?

Maybe they're not so SeldomVisitorish after all, eh?

Imagine that!

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