Report: Worldwide Mobile Device Growth Doubles

A UK mobile research company has released new data about worldwide smartphone sales figures. The report places Nokia and the Symbian on top in devices shipments with strong growth while palmOne grew only slightly with a shrinking lead over rivals during the period.

PDA smartphone Marketshare reportThe Canalys study shows that overall sales of smartphones and PDA/Phone hybrids nearly doubled in the last year. Handheld sales were down 6%, while converged devices were up 137%. Market share by Operating system was reported with Symbian in the lead with 61%, Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5% and RIM with 7%.

Nokia took a demanding lead in the global mobile device market in Q1, shipping a record 5.4 million smartphones or 50% of the market. palmOne held on to second place, with a small 1% rise in shipments. They shipped about a million devices in the quarter for a 10% share. Around 40% of palmOne’s device shipments are now accounted for by Treo smart phones, up from 17% a year earlier. However, with the US representing almost 80% of the company’s smart phone shipments, it clearly still needs to expand its reach and relationships in EMEA and the Asia/Pacific regions to compete effectively on a global scale.

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Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale

Timothy Rapson @ 4/26/2005 6:33:41 PM # Q
Does anyone know how high up you have to go in those Nokia models to qualify as a smartphone? The only model of Nokia that I know for sure qualifies is that keyboard model with the 640 by 240 screen and wide keyboard. Surely they didn't sell 5.4 million of those $800+ models?

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
Admin @ 4/26/2005 6:42:40 PM # Q
The report states it was a majority of series 60 devices.

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2005/r2005041.htm

-Ryan

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
Timothy Rapson @ 4/26/2005 7:18:48 PM # Q
Aren't most of the 6k series with 128 by 128 pixel screens and no expansion card? How can those compare to a Treo? I know, I guess I am expecting too much, but frankly I could not more replace a cell phone and my Zire 72 with a 6670 than I could replace it with an old Sharp Wizard.

I guess, how they define smart phones is up to them, but I don't consider the Nokia 6 series that smart.

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
pda_pragmtist @ 4/26/2005 9:11:11 PM # Q
And where on that list is Microsoft represented?

I see lots of folks with Treos & Blackberries on their belts - I almost never see a Windows device.

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
Altema @ 4/27/2005 12:11:06 AM # Q
"I guess, how they define smart phones is up to them, but I don't consider the Nokia 6 series that smart."

I can only echo your sentiments. I don't consider anything in their line as a replacement for my PDA. At least a Treo could pull it off, and a WM device could come close except for the documents. I thought about their 6620 as a replacement for my T616 because it had EDGE, but it looked too much like a fat walkie talkie. Also, the Nokias I've had in the past were excellent at data but poor at being a phone. The SE T616 went the opposite way; an excellent phone that was so-so at data. My current Siemens S66 does excellent in both data and voice, comes with 42MB out of the box, does all the usual PIM stuff plus photo editing and email and such, but I still don't consider it a smartphone. Now if they could only build a UI that was designed by users and not programmers...

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
AdamaDBrown @ 4/27/2005 1:55:03 AM # Q
"And where on that list is Microsoft represented?"

Check the market share by percent: MSFT at 18%, right before PSRC's listing.

Nokia's "smartphone" sales are lies, damn lies, and manufactured statistics. They shoehorn a microscopic subset of Symbian into their camera phones and count them as "smartphones" to artificially boost sales numbers and claim some great dominance in the smartphone arena. The vast majority of the phones they count as smartphones have no expandability and almost no capability for running apps. Their capabilities make a Windows Smartphone look like a Thinkpad.

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
Timothy Rapson @ 4/27/2005 9:05:46 AM # Q
RE Adama " no expandability and almost no capability for running apps."

There is the problem I see too. Without an SD card and apps, it is not so smart in my book.


RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
MovableTechnology51 @ 4/27/2005 1:37:36 PM # Q
The only comment I have to make is: NOKIA PAID $$$ FOR THE STUDY. This is a polite way of saying that this article is full of Bull*%&t. Ryan, why don't you find some REAL stats on the handheld market and stop posting this dribble.

RE: Which Nokia models make up that 5.4 million sale
Masamune @ 4/27/2005 2:59:41 PM # Q
Believe me, I've been looking into Series 60 phones a lot over the past couple of weeks, and its starting to fry my brain...

The majority of Series 60 smartphones are quite functional as PDAs, despite lacking a touchscreen. My Sendo X has pretty much the same processing power as a TE2 and yes, it does have an SD card slot. The majority of Series 60 phones do have a memory card slot in some form or another, using taking the form of MiniSD or Transflash.

Is a Series 60 phone a total replacement for a traditional PDA? My thinking at the moment is that it isn't, despite my Sendo soon to have a GPS system & plug in keyboard. As an accompaniment to a PDA, it is a very, very potent combination.

Reply to this comment

agree

oneself @ 4/27/2005 9:22:07 AM # Q
could anyone, please, re-make this report only including NOKIA communicator series and WM devices (no windows smartphone , which is not better than 60series).

this will show a clear picture and make it useful.

Reply to this comment

Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%

Gekko @ 4/27/2005 11:58:46 AM # Q

Listen to the bell, Nagel - it tolls for thee!



RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
EdH @ 4/27/2005 12:49:21 PM # Q
Yup. The chart shown is meaningless in the OS context. What matters is not that HP is in 5th place. What matters is that as operating systems go, MS is in 2nd place and growing (up 44% compared to last year) and Palmsource is in 3rd place and shrinking (down 13% from last year).

MS has a lot of OEMs making and selling product, far more than PalmSource's shrinking band of OEMs.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/27/2005 2:45:57 PM # Q

But remember, Palm OS is the inevitable winner!

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=3626#100080

I wonder how many of the numerous responders in that thread now have pocketpc's.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Gekko @ 4/27/2005 3:08:49 PM # Q

Surur - Nice catch! They must have been drinking KOOL-AID all the way home!

"Steve Bush from Brighthand is the one who shed the light on Palm's and Microsoft's differing philosophies for me on the way home from the PalmSource conference a few months ago."

-----

Editorial: Why the Palm OS Is the Inevitable Winner
Posted By: Ed on Monday, June 10, 2002 3:55:03 PM

"Too Little, Too Late - Microsoft has missed the boat. Palm was asleep at the wheel, just coasting along for a couple of years. This was Microsoft's only hope to take over the market. But that time is over. PalmSource is aggressively improving the Palm OS. It already has 87% of retail sales in the United States and sells about twice as many handhelds in the Enterprise market as Microsoft does. Expect PPC's share to drop back to single figures. Especially during the burst of sales caused by Palm users upgrading to the new operating system.

The PPC won't go away. Microsoft has tons of money to pour into it and hates to admit it has failed at anything. But any other company would see the writing on the wall and drop it.

There are still plenty of "experts" who are predicting that the Pocket PC will take over the lead from the Palm OS in a few years. Keep in mind, though, these are the same people who have been predicting the same thing for years. Every year, they move back the year that Microsoft will take over.

I wish I could claim all this came to me in a great epiphany but Steve Bush from Brighthand is the one who shed the light on Palm's and Microsoft's differing philosophies for me on the way home from the PalmSource conference a few months ago."



RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Gekko @ 4/27/2005 5:35:15 PM # Q

To the Palm/Nagel Apologists - So when should Nagel get fired? Should the Board wait until PSRC is at 0% market share?????? Is this what you're waiting for? It won't be long now. What will you say then?

"An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it."

The trend is clear, PSRC is screwed.



RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Gekko @ 4/27/2005 5:45:10 PM # Q

So on 9-24-04, Nagel says:

"If you want to make a wireless data device, it will be much simpler, faster in the future than it was in the past (with Cobalt)." - Oh really? How come no smartphone makers agree?

"PalmOS has 29% worlwide smartphone marketshare" - And you squander it away.

"Cobalt is "the first PalmOS designed specifically to support phones" - Does anyone care?

"We think we're just about to blow this industry open." - You're a CON ARTIST.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/09/29/palmsource_cobalt/

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/46/3395.html



RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Timothy Rapson @ 4/27/2005 6:15:43 PM # Q
Understandable mistake, but EdH is Ed Hansberry from PPC site Pocketthoughts. The guy who used to be here and is now editor at Brighthand is Ed Hardy, (who nonetheless turned out to be wrong about PPC/WM OS share when he wrote the above in 2002. I still wonder why he turned out to be wrong. The PPC model have come down significantly in price since then, but....well perhaps that is all one needs to explain it. The value of the Palm models simply hasn't kept pace.)
Anyway, neigther of them appear to be getting anywhere against Nokia in the middle range smartphone arena, though with PalmOne it is comparing apples and oranges. The Treo is a super-smartphone like the Nokia 7700s or 900s. I believe the Treo's million sales would be about even with those comparably priced and more powerfully configured models.
Anyway, if PalmOne doesn't get a $200 (without contract) model out, they are going to miss a lot of the market. Nokia has three brand new models (N90, N91, N70?) out this week that might smack the Treos butt.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/27/2005 6:42:51 PM # Q
I did not confuse the two. I did not know Ed Hasberry posted here, and was interested to see what he wrote here in the past. Thats how I chanced upon that old Ed Hardy article (in which the other Ed posted too).

The success of windows mobile is actually very easy to explain. People can say all they want about how handheld devices are special case, but the fact is that people are familiar with desktop computers, they get taught to use Windows at school and at work, they HAVE to know the paradigm. It is easy to transfer this knowledge to windows mobile and to be productive and comfortable soon. Power users "get" it immediately and transfer their previous experience, and casual users have a shallow learning curve and familiarity to add to their comfort zone. I bet this effect even influences the OEM's, software developers and the driver writers. They just understand the model already, which is why WM has so many licensees. Palm Os is going the way of the mac. Even if they remain profitable they will become niche.

Being the technically more powerful OS with the better hardware is just the cherry on the top. Palm OS never stood a chance...

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 4/27/2005 9:08:44 PM # Q
Being the technically more powerful OS with the better hardware is just the cherry on the top. Palm OS never stood a chance...

Bull. PalmOS has had numerous opportunities to bury WinCE/PPC over the past 5 years and is in its current shaky position merely because of incompetent management. The only amazing thing is how - year after year - Palm has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Like Netscape, Palm was first to widely market a solid product in a new market. Palm OWNED the PDA market for several years, but were too lazy/greedy/stupid/arrogant to innovate. "Who needs color screens/multimedia/expansion/voice recorders/etc, etc?" was the sad refrain for years, as Palm gouged customers with low budget, poor value equipment.

Even when it was obvious that they needed to start offering competitive hardware to keep pace with PPC manufacturers, Palm instead came up with cynical, pathetic slothware like the Tungsten 5.

Had Palm's management woken up four years ago and started offering PalmOS on PPC-quality hardware, PPC would probably have long since been relegated to Microsoft's (small) Hall Of Shame along with Bob. Instead, it's been given so many reprieves that eventually Microsoft may eventually get the user interface right and take away Palm's only remaining advantage.

TVoR




------------------------
Press release: CUPERTINO, California — February 11, 2005 — Apple® announced today that Steve Jobs will begin selling his own feces to Apple Cultists beginning March 1. Apple's new iPoo™ lineup is expected to easily surpass the iPod shuffle as the company's most popular product. Yes, Apple Cultists can already easily create their own iPoo™, but feces didn't seem cool until Jobs told them it was cool. Remember, kids: the ONLY cool feces is Jobs' highly individualistic, rebellious iPoo™ (coming soon in six different colors/flavors, including the red [hematochezia] and black [melena] U2 GI bleed model)

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

Say hello to my little friend...

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/28/2005 2:51:29 AM # Q
Like Netscape, Palm was first to widely market a solid product in a new market. Palm OWNED the PDA market for several years, but were too lazy/greedy/stupid/arrogant to innovate. "Who needs color screens/multimedia/expansion/voice recorders/etc, etc?" was the sad refrain for years, as Palm gouged customers with low budget, poor value equipment.

My point is that MS set of to build a mini-windows, which implicitly meant colour screens, sound, expansion abilities etc, while Palm had initial success with an electronic organiser. They did not think consumers wanted mini-computers, and stuck to their guns as long as they could, only grudgingly giving in and finally embracing things with e.g. the HDD in Tungsten X (imagine selling that to the Zen of Palm crowd 5 years ago). In the end though, only MS can do mini-Windows, with the other network effect advantages I eluded to above.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
justauser @ 4/28/2005 5:55:38 AM # Q
Wasn't it more like Palm used advancements in technology (battery life etc) to shrink their hardware (avoided adding multimedia). PPC on the other hand would to pack more features into their already bloated devices at the expense of hardware size. Palm's initial strategy was good at the time and they maintained their strong lead – Two things have changed since then; (1) we can now relatively inexpensively pack a lot into a small package and (2) people's perceptions PDA size has changed – remember when the smallest cell phone was the best? Why do mobile phones never seem to shrink these days? Palm's initial strategy was good at the time – but now they are forced to change (and they are; TX and Linux based OS on the horizon). PPC's “success” is just proof that if you keep throwing money at an idea then eventually you will get a win no matter how bad your losses on the way. Sony produced plenty of multimedia wonders and they withdrew due to limited profitability. Only MS is prepared to mindlessly plug money into a losing idea.

Re:
atrizzah @ 4/28/2005 6:15:45 AM # Q
I think the real problem is this: Palm has been poised for the kill for the past 3 years, and has done absolutely nothing. Like above posters have mentioned, Palm did a great job of owning the low end market with their easy to use devices, but now cellphones are crunching in on their low end, while Palm never did release the sort of high end devices necessary to compete with the latest generaation of Pocket PCs. There were a couple nearly killer devices in my opinion: the T|W and the Treo 90, but neither was what it could have been, and neither was followed up on. Palm tried to make a business of giving consumers *almost* what they wanted in order to protect their product lines. In the end, other companies have stepped in where Palm has been unwilling to. With OS6 effectively stillborn, I think the next OS is going to make or break Palm, forever. Let's hope they can get some killer products and that new OS out before it's too late.

Peace Out
Alan
RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/28/2005 6:56:51 AM # Q
Justauser wrote
Wasn't it more like Palm used advancements in technology (battery life etc) to shrink their hardware (avoided adding multimedia). PPC on the other hand would to pack more features into their already bloated devices at the expense of hardware size.

But this was not by accident. Palm had a philosophy (the so called Zen of Palm) which emphasised simplicity and elegance. Palm stuck to this despite the clamouring of users for better features. Pocketpc's from the start was about small computers (hence the name). Today is called Windows Mobile, as MS sees the association with Desktop Windows as a selling point. See above for why I think this may be true.

PPC's “success” is just proof that if you keep throwing money at an idea then eventually you will get a win no matter how bad your losses on the way. Sony produced plenty of multimedia wonders and they withdrew due to limited profitability. Only MS is prepared to mindlessly plug money into a losing idea.

Again, MS only makes the OS, and only loses money on the development of the OS. They dont subsidise the hardware. Its up to the OEM's (like Sony was) to decide if they are throwing good money after bad. Clearly on the Palm side many OEM's did. On the pocketpc side the major loss seems to be Toshiba, but I wonder if they are not wavering about stepping out of the market. There are many many companies making a lot of real money from WM handhelds. The ODM HTC seems to be doing particularly well. If people are buying its clearly not a "losing idea".

A better question to ask is would Sony still be producing handhelds if they produced a pocketpc instead of a Palm. I think yes, as they would have sold them as part of their laptop and desktop Viao line, and it would have been an easy sale as a step below their ulta-portable notebooks, without having to learn a new OS paradigm.

Either way, the market is speaking, and its clear that features trump simplicity, which is why cellphones are getting bigger and bigger. PalmOne is learning this (hence the T X) but it would benefit them more to give people the full desktop-like package, which means Windows Mobile, not Palm OS.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
AdamaDBrown @ 4/28/2005 6:54:28 PM # Q
The problem wasn't so much the Zen as it was the bleed-through. They took the 'Zen simplicity' idea out of the interface and turned it into an absolute minimalism. No color, users don't need that. No expansion, users don't need that. On and on, through replacable batteries, WiFi, file systems, and a dozen other things.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
svrontis @ 4/29/2005 12:24:31 AM # Q
> the market is speaking

You said it.

Look at HP's numbers. They achieved a marginal increase compared in the same quarter last year. This is even though they revamped their whole stable of units. Can you imagine the R&D that went into that? All for a tiny increase in sales. Why did they bother waisting all that money? With such a disappointing result, and with a new CEO who is known as a cost-cutter, how long will HP stay in this game? Watch this space.

By the way, did not notice that Dell didn't even make the list (I guess their numbers are buried somewhere in 'other'). This is the same Dell which was supposed to have buried p1 years ago. How sad.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/29/2005 2:30:00 AM # Q

I dont want to be insulting, but at which point did you lose track of the fact that these numbers are smartphone shipments? Dell does not make a smartphone. HP only made the very awful 6315. It still shipped 60% as much units as PalmOne, for whom the Treo line is apparently 47% of their revenue. Based in that I am guessing HP must have out-shipped P1 in total units easily. The more Treo like successor the the 6315 will only increase sales vs the Treo. Time will tell I guess.

The large "other" segment is the strength of windows mobile, not the weakness. In there you will find the various XDA units, the Jam, the SDA's, motorola's, the network branded units, the audiovox's etc etc. A hit can come from any of them, and its not dependent on the skill of only one manufacturer. One company can not withstand the onslaught of so many manufacturers.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
svrontis @ 4/29/2005 3:12:27 AM # Q
My mistake. I miunderstood the numbers.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
justauser @ 4/30/2005 10:27:37 AM # Q
As Surur points out, this report is about smartphones. What's this got to do with Palm's zen? The Treo line was initiated by Handspring. From my recollection they were one of the first pda groups to go all in for smartphones - totally against the zen. Palm bought Handspring and their philosophy. The Treo 650 is a best of class device. Just where is Palm dragging the chain here? The Treo 650 is a strong device against its nearest competitor the xda mini (closest match in size, battery life etc.) - it doesn't have WiFi either and 320x320 beats 240x320.

Both Palm and MS are underdogs by this report. Whatever so called 'lead' MS has in this particular market is tenuous to say the least.

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
ginsberg @ 4/30/2005 11:09:18 PM # Q
Actually, the Canalys numbers mix all smartphones and all PDAs together.

IDC issues 2 sets of numbers: 1)PDAs, but they exclude all wireless devices such as the iPAQ 63xx, Tungsten C & W, and RIM BlackBerries. 2) Converged - all wireless handheld devices, including smartphones and wireless PDAs.

Gartner issues 2 sets of numbers: 1) data-centric devices, including BlackBerries (except the 7100 smartphone) and wireless PDAs such as the iPAQ 63xx and Nokia 9xxx. 2) voice-centric devices - smartphones.

NPD - handheld devices sold primarily through US retail channels.

None of these are directly comparable to the others.

MS now 63%, Palm only 37% for all handhelds
Surur @ 5/1/2005 3:34:16 AM # Q
On re-reading the report, Ginsberg is right, as well as svrontis. This is actually ALL handhelds shipped, connected or not. Seen in this context things are quite dire for PalmOS. MS is now shipping nearly double the units worldwide, and continues to grow fast. PalmOS is shrinking while everyone else is growing, and PalmOne itself is down 27%, despite the Treo.

Addressing svrontis's now clearly relevant criticism, it again exemplifies the diversity of the Windows Mobile market, with many people making money of the devices. I myself decided not to go with a cheap Dell or a stodgy HP, but with a very elegant and very capable Fujitsu Siemens Loox 720. http://www.clieuk.co.uk/loox720.shtml

In a growing market there is space for everyone, and everyone can compete to try and take over the market. In a shrinking Palm market a new manufacturer would have to be mad to enter it.

Surur

Further analysis of Canalys numbers
Surur @ 5/1/2005 7:54:25 AM # Q

Further analysis of the Canalys numbers


 Q1 05Q1 04% increase
Windows Mobile1976970136840044.47%
Palm OS11313101303730-13.23%
    
HP607010(30.7% of WM sales)5776505.08%
Pa1m0ne1009040(89.2% of POS sales)9959601.31%
WM-Other1369960(69.3% of WM sales)79075073.25%
POS-Other122270(10.8% of POS sales)307770-60.27%

 

 

 

The main feature here is the dramatic decrease in shipments for other Palmsource licensees. Palmone has been able to maintain its numbers, but the other licensees basically tanked. This contrasts with the 73% increase in shipments from anyone-besides HP. Also HP is only 30% of the WM mobile market. They are not half as dominant as people here seem to think they are.

The short of it is that if you wish to enter the handheld market, you should avoid PalmOS like the plague. If you go WM you will be joining a burgeoning market where there is still everything to play for.

Lastly, to address the Symbian issue. I believe when people get serious about information worker usage they go Windows Mobile, not Symbian. I'm not even sure they are currently addressing the same market.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 5/1/2005 9:08:30 AM # Q
RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 4/28/2005 2:51:29 AM

...Palm had initial success with an electronic organiser. They did not think consumers wanted mini-computers, and stuck to their guns as long as they could, only grudgingly giving in and finally embracing things with e.g. the HDD in Tungsten X (imagine selling that to the Zen of Palm crowd 5 years ago)

The only reason Palm did not offer more capable hardware was because they weren't forced to do so. They made HUGE profits selling ultra cheap components at premium prices (like the Vx for $400!) and used "The Zen of Palm" nonsense to make people think that limited hardware and software was actually A Good Thing. If you want another example of how easily people are manipulated, just look at the mass hysteria created over the iPod Shuffle by Svengali Steve Jobs a few months ago. Svengali Steve is one of the few execs in the world with the ability to make cheap, featureless products look like A Good Thing. I can't wait for Apple's new iPoo™ and their exclusive line of SillyCon Snake Oils™...

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
justauser @ 4/30/2005 10:27:37 AM

Both Palm and MS are underdogs by this report. Whatever so called 'lead' MS has in this particular market is tenuous to say the least.

If you look at Smpbian model sales, you'll see that Symbian is thrown on many phones that aren't really used as smartphones or PDAs. The majority of the Symbian's devices shouldn't be included in this discussion and their presence only clouds the true picture. Saying Symbian is an important smartphone manufacturer is like saying IR is an important wireless technology for most users. Just because somethin is on a device doesn't mean it's actually USED. (Hellooooooo, Bluetooth!)

Further analysis of Canalys numbers
Surur @ 5/1/2005 7:54:25 AM

Further analysis of the Canalys numbers
[SNIP]
The main feature here is the dramatic decrease in shipments for other Palmsource licensees. Palmone has been able to maintain its numbers, but the other licensees basically tanked. This contrasts with the 73% increase in shipments from anyone-besides HP. Also HP is only 30% of the WM mobile market. They are not half as dominant as people here seem to think they are.

The short of it is that if you wish to enter the handheld market, you should avoid PalmOS like the plague. If you go WM you will be joining a burgeoning market where there is still everything to play for.

Lastly, to address the Symbian issue. I believe when people get serious about information worker usage they go Windows Mobile, not Symbian. I'm not even sure they are currently addressing the same market.

Surur

Please read and think before you post in the future. Many of the statements you've made in this thread have been completely false and your conclusions are shaky - to put it mildly.

Regarding the PalmOS numbers: Do you remember a company that was selling PalmOS PDAs a year ago but isn't anymore? I'll give you a hint: It's called S*ny. Ask your Mommy to help you figure out who that is.

So eventually you posted that pa1mOne sales actually remained stable compared to the same time a year ago, yet this means "you should avoid PalmOS like the plague"? Didn't Palm's gross margins actually RISE during compared to the previous year? I hope current and potential PalmOS licensees aren't a clueless as you appear to be when they weigh the pros and cons of maintaining/taking out a PalmOS license. (Hellooooo Sony, Samsung, Garmin, Nintendo...)

I do agree that it's concerning that with almost 90% of the PalmOS market consisting of pa1mOne devices, this lack of variety does not bode well for the platform. I also feel Symbian should be excluded from these stats, or at least have a few qualifiers added. Too many of the Symbian "smartphones" included are actually just regular phones that happen to have a so-called "smartphone" OS on board. If Palm would only wake up and get a cheap (sub-$200) PalmOS "smartphone" onto the market, they too could boost their numbers compared to the competition.

Remember: there's lies, damned lies, and statistics...


TVoR



------------------------
Press release: CUPERTINO, California — February 11, 2005 — Apple® announced today that Steve Jobs will begin selling his own feces to Apple Cultists beginning March 1. Apple's new iPoo™ lineup is expected to easily surpass the iPod shuffle as the company's most popular product. Yes, Apple Cultists can already easily create their own iPoo™, but feces didn't seem cool until Jobs told them it was cool. Remember, kids: the ONLY cool feces is Jobs' highly individualistic, rebellious iPoo™ (coming soon in six different colors/flavors, including the red [hematochezia] and black [melena] U2 GI bleed model)

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

Say hello to my little friend...

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
Surur @ 5/1/2005 11:36:51 AM # Q

VOR, as usual your cutting insight has shattered my illusions (and I'm not being sarcastic). It appears I have been guilty of swallowing Palm's PR hook, line and sinker. In my defence I've heard the same nonsense sprouted numerous times by Palm apologists when they explain why POS lagged behind, especially when e.g. it came to colour screens. I am just wondering if you are not ascribing too much to maliciousness when simple incompetence would explain things.

Regarding third party OEM's, isn't it a bit strange that no other manufacturers were able to step into the gap they left. Are you proposing that another company try and make money where Sony failed? They would clearly face a more uphill battle than if they entered the WM market, where there are very few big fish.

If you have any specific points to address just point them out, and I'll see if I find your objections reasonable. Certainly the numbers appear quite reasonable.

Surur

RE: Microsoft with 18%, PalmSource with 10.5%
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 5/1/2005 1:13:24 PM # Q
VOR, as usual your cutting insight has shattered my illusions (and I'm not being sarcastic). It appears I have been guilty of swallowing Palm's PR hook, line and sinker. In my defence I've heard the same nonsense sprouted numerous times by Palm apologists when they explain why POS lagged behind, especially when e.g. it came to colour screens. I am just wondering if you are not ascribing too much to maliciousness when simple incompetence would explain things.

Despite how it appears sometimes, Palm is not run by fools. At one point, Palm's market cap was so high (several billion dollars) they were one of the most valuable companies in America and it looked like they could do no wrong. Had Palm continued to grow at the rate they did back in 1999 - 2001, by now they'd be on the same footing as Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, et. al. But the bubble burst and Palm's management was so arrogant that they never made any contingency plans until it was too late. Palm's flogging of underpowered, low priced hardware year after year rather than investing in upgrading OS and hardware features was a conscious decision arrived at by crunching numbers. "Why bother blowing tens of millions of $$$ on R + D, expensive multimedia and expensive hardware (like Sony and PPC manufacturers were trying) when the cheap old stuff is selling like hotcakes?" The irony is Palm wasted tens of millions on useless acquisitions instead of improving its core product. Look back on every significant PDA advance since the original Pilot and you'll see that Palm usually was the last to implement those advances. Color screens, expansion cards, MP3, video, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, voice recorder, running files from expansion, Microsoft Office compatibility, smartphones, etc... Instead users saw "dramatic" upgrades that consisted mainly of doubling the RAM every 6 - 12 months. "If they liked the Palm V with only 2 MB RAM, they'll LOVE the Vx with 8MB! And the Michael Jordan and Claudia Schiffer Palms? Fabulous. But color screens would go against "The Zen of Palm". Those silly WinCE users have to charge their PDAs every day! What a laugh..." Wow. Palm cynically predicted the market would keep bearing what they wanted to charge. They were wrong. Even so, had Palm's management been lead by someone with the creativity of say, Steve Jobs, they would have looked at "the big picture" back in 2001 and come up with a long term strategy of diversification (cellphones, vertical markets, corporate users/push email, and individual users) and they'd probably be in a pretty strong position right now. All the pieces were available at the time, but instead, the company only focused on getting through the next quarter, with management thinking (until fairly recently) that the PDA boom would pick up again and the old strategy (maximizing profit through cheap incremantal upgrades) would work again. In reality, had Handspring not brilliantly hacked the he11 out of creaky old PalmOS to create a slick phone edition, Palm might not still be here today. As of 2005, I think Palm's Windows™ of opportunity to be profitable have closed in all of its potential niches except cellphones. And if Palm fails to announce a $199 Treo 200 in two weeks, it will be time to throw in the towel.

Regarding third party OEM's, isn't it a bit strange that no other manufacturers were able to step into the gap they left. Are you proposing that another company try and make money where Sony failed? They would clearly face a more uphill battle than if they entered the WM market, where there are very few big fish.

If you have any specific points to address just point them out, and I'll see if I find your objections reasonable. Certainly the numbers appear quite reasonable.

In 1999 - 2000, PDAs were going to take over the world. They were expected to become digital wallets, PIM devices, entertainment units, email centers, dockable work computer, etc all rolled into one and making everything else obsolete. Fast forward to 2005 and major retailers like Comp USSR, Circuit Sh1tty have reduced their PDA section to a three foot display with 4 or 5 broken, neglected models. Some - like Best Buy - stopped selling PDAs altogether in 2004. Sony - just one revision away from PDA perfection with the TH55 and UX50 - pulled out after investing tens of millions in research. Samsung - the "new Sony" - can't seem to release anything but vaporware announcements. Meanwhile, PPC has a multitude of licensees. And now PPC devices can run most Palm apps with a $30 shareware app??? Wow. Not exactly a great market to try and break into, is it? The only new licensees I expect PalmSource to announce soon are cellphone manufacturers. (But Nintendo would be a nice catch.)

My theory on the decline in sales by non-pa1mOne manufacturers is that the people who would normally have bought Sony CLIEs would never buy pa1mOne or Garmin PDAs, so with Sony out, the PalmOS platform has lost those people - maybe for good. A lot of people that would otherwise have bought new CLIEs have turned to eBay. Others probably switched to PPC. Some potential CLIE buyers probably realized they didn't need a PDA anymore and now use their cellphone or laptop instead. Garmin seems ready to pull out of PalmOS, with the PPC iQue M5 taking over from Garmin's PalmOS units. Whatever the reason for the decline in PalmOS market share, the ONLY thing that will help save Palm at this stage is an ultracheap, stylish smartphone. Announcing Motorola and Sony Ericsson as new licencees and then bringing out a few PalmOS RAZR or (even better) SLVR styled Motos and a PalmOS T630 would give PalmOS the boost it needs.



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Press release: CUPERTINO, California — February 11, 2005 — Apple® announced today that Steve Jobs will begin selling his own feces to Apple Cultists beginning March 1. Apple's new iPoo™ lineup is expected to easily surpass the iPod shuffle as the company's most popular product. Yes, Apple Cultists can already easily create their own iPoo™, but feces didn't seem cool until Jobs told them it was cool. Remember, kids: the ONLY cool feces is Jobs' highly individualistic, rebellious iPoo™ (coming soon in six different colors/flavors, including the red [hematochezia] and black [melena] U2 GI bleed model)

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Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
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Say hello to my little friend...

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