Comments on: Compaq Revenue to be Higher than Palm Revenue

As yet another sign of Palm Inc.'s current problems, Gartner has released a report predicting that Compaq will soon show a higher quarterly revenue than Palm Inc. This doesn't mean that more iPaqs will be sold than Palm models, simply that Compaq will have a greater cash flow from its sales.
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My math is better than theirs

I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 9:56:00 AM #
Se what The Register has to say about that.

RE: My math is better than theirs
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 10:04:44 AM #
I found the Register article much more insightful than the original announcement. But I guess that's to be expected when you read analysis instead of just some cooked numbers. Still, I hope Palm gets its act together soon.

The real numbers

Michael @ 6/18/2001 3:40:59 PM #

There's an untold story behind those Dataquest/Gartner numbers. Dataquest is reporting the manufacturer sell-in of products -- the money we at Palm get for the products we sell to the dealers this quarter. Because we stopped shipping many products for part of this quarter, in order to clear excess inventory, our revenue is artificially low at the moment. That doesn't mean our products have stopped selling -- it's just that a lot of the units selling now are ones we booked revenue for last quarter.

Also, we have put on some price promotions that have further depressed reported revenue this quarter.

In terms of actual sales to customers, retail share of the Palm OS in the US (as measured by companies like PC Data) continues to be stable about 90% share.

It's unfortunate that the coverage of the Dataquest/Gartner report isn't making any of this clear.

CCO, Palm Inc.

Mike - don't worry, your numbers should really spike up with
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 4:35:37 PM #
the new Jordan Palm coming out soon.

RE: The real numbers
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 6:51:08 PM #
Ya right!!! :D hahaha

Mike - Who are you?
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 7:45:09 PM #
Just check Palm management team, there is no CCO there

RE: The real numbers
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 8:02:43 PM #
In reply to:-
"I.M. Anonymous (@ 6/18/2001 7:45:09 PM)"

READING from the link you posted: -

"Michael Mace
Vice President, Product Planning & Strategy
As chief competitive officer for Palm, Inc., Michael Mace is a senior member of the Palm OSŪ platform management team. His role is to understand the competitive..."

Please note the phrase "chief competitive officer".

RE: The real numbers
Legible @ 6/18/2001 9:23:07 PM #
Hi Mike

It is really refreshing that senior officers of Palm actually engage customers in a forum such as this. It restores somewhat my faith in the company in listening to customers.

I would raise to your attention why iPaq may be making inroads into enterprises is because it is easier for VC++ programmers to pick up a copy of (free) MS Embedded Visual Tools and start programming away rather than having to unlearnt their favorite interface and relearnt CodeWarrior.

Mike - I have a book suggestion for Palm Management.
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/18/2001 10:34:39 PM #
Read "" by Kara Swisher if you haven't already. It details how AOL beat/is beating MSFT. I think you guys could learn from AOL's strategy.

Interesting Slant

altema @ 6/18/2001 9:55:51 PM #
I've seen some number manipulation before, but this is a little absurd. An outside company taking guestimates that, even though they are optimized towards PPC, still show Palm outselling Pocket PC by a healthy margin, and they turn it into a negative report against Palm. Quaint.

We could just as easily state that Ford Motor Company is going to be shutting down factories and sending 75% of it's workers home because their numbers are down compared to Rolls Royce. What numbers? Depends on who you want to make look good or bad.

I also find it interesting that this should be released on the MSN channel, instead of more important stories, and released before any real numbers are available. It has been a very effective technique to undermine a product by weakening consumer confidence.

As far as bulk sales are concerned, corporate bean counters have never had a reputation for efficiency. It does not surprise me that the buyers who have freedom from the restraints of corporate purchasing departments are the ones who buy more Palm products. I would be the first to say that Palm's marketing strategy has been sub standard, especially in light of Microsoft's marketing brilliance. But in the light of that marketing imbalance, if the Pocket PC was equal to, or better than, Palm OS devices, Palm's doors would have been long closed and rusted shut.

You may say that Palm's time is coming to an end, but I don't think so. They have come to a low point in their history, due in part to laziness and assumptions about what consumers really want. But this has already awaken them from their nap, and a leaner, more intense Palm will result. Is the Pocket PC outselling Palms this year? The answer is the same as last year, and the year before that, and the year before that: No.

In closing, I can't say that Palm will be around forever... we almost lost Microsoft recently, but it is encouraging that there is more activity in the Palm OS product field than ever before. Not only does the PPC have Palm to deal with, they also have HandSpring, HandEra, Acer, and now Sony to deal with.


Palm economy

Truster @ 6/19/2001 4:06:40 AM #
For the Palm economy are more units in the market better. There are more Palms in the market than PPCs. So more software, accecoires, ... can be sold.

The other part is don't trust any statistics you don't manipulate by yourself and never trust an analyst or market researcher, they are limited in their minds and have a specific motivation to say things in an unreal way - they do their job for money and from whom they get it!? Think about it! Palm isn't at the end, we see a new begining!

What about costs?

dswann3 @ 6/19/2001 11:11:09 PM #
Talking about revenue is one thing, but that means very little without the costs that go along with it. Who's to say that Compaq's costs per unit aren't twice as much as Palm's as well? That puts a whole different spin on things.

Corporate Palm already here

Anon Nymus @ 6/21/2001 8:22:09 AM #
The corporate & industrial strength Palm is already here in the form of the Handera 330. However to fully appeal to that market segment, it needs a colour screen because this will the first thing people will note it doesn't have. (Perhaps the new Motorola Dragonball Super VZ & the Li-ion battery pack will provide enough juice for this). Lets face it - the iPaq has become the corporate benchmark due to Palm's complacency & lack of a forsight to pursue that market segment more aggressively from the start.
The HandEra 330 sales have been non-existent - BANKRUPTCY?
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 9:25:05 AM #
HandEra's stubborn refusal to use a color screen will probably end up costing them their future. Not many people are looking for big, ugly, expensive, monochrome PDAs these days. Their product planners are out of touch with reality.

Sam's Club ended up unloading their slow-selling TRGPro stocks for $129 each. Expect them to drop the HandEra 330 price to $299 next week and $249 by July. Now that most of the previous TRGPro owners that wanted 330s have bought their 330s, HandEra's sales will be even worse.

HandEra seems to have made some major miscalculations regarding what it takes to compete in the PDA scene in 2001. When you factor in their reported manufacturing problems, the fact that they really only have one model, and their extremely slow prodiction cycle, it becomes obvious that they are soon going to be in trouble. And now they can no longer rely on corporate sales to boost their numbers.

I hope Sony, Handspring or Palm buys them out and incorporates their engineering into mainstream PDAs.

RE: Corporate Palm already here
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 9:53:44 AM #
How do you know? Do you work for HandEra and have access to their sales figures? Or are you just guessing, based on your clear bias against the HandEra 330?

RE: Retail Unimportant
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 9:59:07 AM #
Retail sales are just gravy for HandEra. Their real meat and potatoes come from direct sales in volume to large companies. That's their whole business model.

-Mr. T

HandEra is having problems
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 10:16:56 AM #
My company previously ordered several TRGPros from them (as TRG) but have decided that the 330 is not quite what we were looking for. I have spoken with Handera and they admit that they have had some production problems. Furthermore, they were counting on consumer sales to comprise the majority of their shipments. (Corporate sales were their focus in the past, however, this is no longer the case.)

Perhaps Handera's Mike Waldron could comment here if the previous post about Handera's difficulties was not accurate. Unfortunately, it's true - the lack of a color screen has become Handera's Achilles heel.

RE: Corporate Palm already here
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 10:36:37 AM #
Cynically enough - I'm kinda looking forward to the price drop on the HandEra 330. I'm not that big on color on a palmtop computer, so the new features they did introduce do impress me. The price however, doesn't impress me. With the base of Palm III accessories that exist, and with a nice screen, LOUD alarm, and the ability to use both current types of Palm expansion cards, this unit is going to be the quiet undersold red-headed stepchild, but it's still a helluva lot better than Palms M500 abomination.

With a retail price that is more in line with the slow economy, and if they keep TRG's history of good customer support, I suspect sales will be steady, if not outstanding. This company needs to go back to corporate and medical professionals, who are looking for maximum expansion capability, long-life and a good return on investment. The...ahem, cough cough "game-boy" crowd who want to play liberty on the palm OS and are the main reason for the development of color (no flame - just a statement of my opinion; gamers have been moving the bar higher in both the PC and Palm world) should not be looking at this palmtop - it's geared for a different user.

Tucson Sailors

Handera mistakes
I.M. Anonymous @ 6/21/2001 10:47:55 AM #
What you don't realize is that "medical professionals" seem to now be insisting on small PDAs, preferrably with color screens (better visibility indoors, where almost all use occurs). A poll in the medically-oriented TRGPro Users Group showed 80% of their members who replied wanted a color version of the TRGPro. Handera seems to be sticking their head in the sand on the color issue and they will probably end up losing a significant number of former customers who would have stayed with them had they only made a color model available. The battery life issue with color PDAs is really a non-issue for MOST people, despite what gets posted on boards like this.

Corporations are also now looking at color PDAs, so it's deceptive to try to minimize the importance of color by claiming it's only for "gamers".



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