Comments on: Palm Adds to Dominant Lead in Europe

According to GfK, an international market research firm, 42% of the handhelds sold in Europe were made by Palm, Inc. during the months of December though January, the most recent results available. Its nearest competitor, Compaq, had just 11.2 %.

Palm's lead in Europe is increasing. During the two months before that, Palm-branded handhelds had 37.6% of the market. This is also an increase of 1.6 points over the same period a year ago.

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Queen of De Nile

sandbuck @ 4/4/2002 12:03:22 PM #
Oh the wailing and gnashing of teeth that will come PPC-troll land because of this news. It's going to be a fun afternoon.

RE: Queen of De Nile
crustyedgeofinnovation @ 4/4/2002 12:32:30 PM #
boo, boo, pocket pc rulz, microsoft is king of the Nile.....just kidding, I'm a Palmie, born a Palmie, and I'll die a Palmie....

PocketPC Trolls anyone?

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 12:08:26 PM #
We're waiting, c'mon, post it...

RE: PocketPC Trolls anyone?
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 12:38:47 PM #
Sony is still better. Europe just doesn't realize it yet. Sony Rules!!!!

RE: PocketPC Trolls anyone?
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 12:56:46 PM #
>> Sony is still better. Europe just doesn't realize it yet. Sony Rules!!!! <<

Apparently, lots of people don't agree with you. But then, you probably base your assessments simply on the tech spec superiority of the Sonys and ignore other elements considered by consumers. All those Europeans are presumably more focused on other aspects of the "buying equation."

You're perfectly entitled to your opinion, and to your narrow focus. But it is a bit insulting to suggest that "Europe doesn't realize it" simply because they don't agree with your narrow-minded assessment.

RE: Is Sony better? Mmmm....
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 12:57:36 PM #
>Sony is still better.

I dunno my friend. As a Sony owner (S320)I'm starting to wonder. Low market share. And now, what...down to three models to choose from? I'd like to upgrade to a color model that won't make me suicidal if I drop it on the factory floor. What can Sony do for me? Nada.
I'll wait a couple more months to see if Sony wants my business or just the business of those who want a mp3 player that takes lousy pictures and keeps phone numbers. If not, I'll rejoin our Palm-owning friends here on PIC. Afterall, the numbers are on their side.


RE: PocketPC Trolls anyone?
popko @ 4/4/2002 1:16:32 PM #
"I dunno my friend. As a Sony owner (S320)I'm starting to wonder. Low market share. And now, what...down to three models to choose from? I'd like to upgrade to a color model that won't make me suicidal if I drop it on the factory floor. What can Sony do for me? Nada.
I'll wait a couple more months to see if Sony wants my business or just the business of those who want a mp3 player that takes lousy pictures and keeps phone numbers. If not, I'll rejoin our Palm-owning friends here on PIC. Afterall, the numbers are on their side."

He's got a good point


---------------------------------
I am lost. But I am going to find myself. So if I return before I get back, please ask me to wait.

RE: PocketPC Trolls anyone?
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 4:43:29 PM #
I'm european. The reason because sony has very poor sales in europe is that THEY DON'T WANT TO SELL. They have only a couple of models available... at OUTRAGEOUS prices. The T625 costs like US$ 700 in Spain! I wouldn't spend such a stupid amount of money in a PDA when I can buy a laptop for that price!

RE: PocketPC Trolls anyone?
rigter @ 4/5/2002 3:18:51 AM #
I can confirm this for the Netherlands.

Few Sony models available, usually months after international introduction or even longer.
Prices sky high.
No periphs.

Over here, Palm competes with Compaq.

Cheers,
Jan

/*
One thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse.
*/

Go Palm!

montyburns @ 4/4/2002 12:10:15 PM #


I'm not dead yet!

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:03:10 PM #
-- Monty Python

Enough said.

RE: I'm not dead yet!
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:15:32 PM #
can't you do something? when is your next round? (from Bring your dead out-cart scene)

RE: I'm not dead yet!
rigter @ 4/5/2002 3:23:31 AM #
Oh yes, you'll be stone dead in a moment.

-- Monty Python (the next line in that scene)

Hmmmm

Cheers,
Jan

/*
One thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse.
*/

So why Palm Stocks are going down????

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:07:42 PM #
I don't get it! I see all the positive things happening to Palm lately: Positive net profits,
steady growth in handheld market, Sony's strong commitment to Palm OS, Palm's dominance in Euro market etc...
Why then Palm stocks are going downward? If all these reports are true, Palm stocks should worth
at least $20 per share.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:33:42 PM #
I agree 100%. Why don't we split the $16 difference by letting you buy my shares for $12. That should give you at least $8 profit for each share based on your analysis. I've got as many shares as you want (and can get more). Let me know.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:34:47 PM #
Hang on to your stock. As soon as the market is convinced on the 'turnaround' story....zooommm!

Right now fear rules.

It isn't
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 1:42:44 PM #
Palm's stock is worth 15% more than it was 2 weeks ago.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 2:04:27 PM #
at the rate it is diving the stock will take approximately 4 weeks to get back at two weeks ago value.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 2:19:17 PM #
At this rate, it will take 600 years for it climb up to $20/share.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 2:30:21 PM #
...says the same people who said Palm would be out of business by December of last year. Wrong again!

Condiser Palm's Market Cap
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 6:45:47 PM #
With it's price per share at $3.54, Palm's market capitalization is $2 billion. A common method for valuing stock is computing a P/E that is consistent with similar companies. This is tough to do because Handspring and RIMM don't have significant earnings with which to compute a P/E.

Palm's best perfomance was its fiscal year ending June 2000 when it generated around $45 million net income. Even picking a very high number, say 10x the performance of that best year, would bring annual net income to only $450 million. If you use a realistic P/E (~30) that gives you a stock price of around $24 or a market capitalization of $13.5 billion.

I'm aware that Palm was at an altime high of around $100/share after the day of its IPO, but those days of atronomical P/E ratios are over.

It is possible that market hype about exploiding numbers of PDAs/smartphones all using PalmOS could creat a ferver for Palm's stock, but its tough to justify a price over $24...at least until it looks as if Palm can do 10x better than it did in 2000.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/5/2002 4:36:19 AM #
Since when is a PE ratio of 30 realistic? That equates to an earnings yield of 3.33% (according to my Abacus v2.03, run on my trusty old Vx with OS4.1). At that rate, you would do better to liquidate your position and put the proceeds on deposit.

I hope the Palm price goes up. However, I'd prefer to see its earnings increase to more reasonable levels first, so that its stockholders are not disappointed.

RE: So why Palm Stocks are going down????
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/5/2002 1:19:43 PM #
doesn't it need a product with oomph to pump up earning again?

IMPOSSIBLE

spartacvs @ 4/4/2002 1:14:29 PM #
It's impossible! PalmOS is already dead. Every PPC fan claim that. It's a lie! It's not true! arrrggggggg!
;)
It's a little bit like a Bond movie (or every Hollywood movie for the low profiles):
the bad guy think he killed Bond but the first thing he knows...

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.
Dr. Strangelove
RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 2:08:09 PM #
> This is also an increase of 1.6 points over the same period a year ago.


You do realize the global handheld market grow 17% in 2001 do you? so obviously somebody else get the rest of the growth.


RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 2:11:27 PM #
Oh look, the PPC troll we were waiting for has arrived.

(read this in the voice one uses with a not very intelligent 5-year-old)
You have misunderstood. While the size of the total market has increased, Palm's share of that entire market has increased, too, by 1.6%. So more handhelds than ever are being sold and more of those than ever are Palm-branded.

Palm's competitors aren't gaining. They are losing ground. Not that they ever had a very big share to begin with.

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 3:20:51 PM #
eh hmmm.......

hint: december throught january, 1.6 pts [compared] over 'a year ago'

to get what you assert, at least palm need to increase the two months sale around 17% area compare to last year just to keep up with overall global growth pattern.

oh well.

Now for next questions:

-is the country breakdown indicating growth for each or just netherland? where are the comparative data between the two years.

-is the percentage indicating unit sold or revenue? If it is unit sold, than Palm is VERY toast, since that mean people increased spending that much more money on non Palm items. If it is revenue (Somewhat better in term of market share but lousy financially, selling more for less money)

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 5:33:07 PM #
I'll give it one last try then I'm giving you up as hopeless.You really should go back to your high school math teacher and demand your money back.

Palm's sheare of the entire market increased by 1.6%. If the entire market increased, then Palm's share increased 1.6 percent more than anyone else's.

Let's do it as a math problem.

Say in 2000, there were 1,000 handhelds sold. Palm's share of that was 40.4%. (That's 42% - 1.6%) So Palm sold 404 handhelds.

In 2001, the number of handhelds sold went up 18%, so there were 1,180 sold. Palm's share this year was 42%, so it sold 495 handhelds.

Can you see now? The number of handhelds sold went up, Palm's share of the total went up, and so the number of Palm's sold went up even faster.

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 6:49:33 PM #
Let me take a stab at expaining the elementary to our one pitiful, yet courageous troll.

It is SHARE that is talked about. Let me illustrate.

Pie has 4 slices, if I eat one that is a 25 percent share of the pie.

Now if I get another pie that is TWICE as large, has 4 slices and I eat one, my "share" of this pie is exactly the same, 25 percent, but since the pie is larger my slice is twice a large as the one from the smaller pie.

If the WW figures for growth in PDAs hold true for europe this would mean Palm grew by more than 17 percent overall
Do you get it now?

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 7:17:48 PM #
Hey dont make the troll look dumb, you might scare him away. Just when we want them here the rest have fled from us. Only he is brave enough to proclaim loud and clear his ignorance. Dont you find it entertaining?
(Oh there I go, I just couldnt restain myself from bashing him.)

I'm sorry. Dont run away little troll, come back. PLEASE COME BAAAACK.

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 7:56:11 PM #
awe, look how everybody is so happy.....:-D

read the original press release, 1,6% increase in ratio (market share), not "unit sold" in the month of Dec.-Jan. compare to last year.

so we are talking probably around 40-60K unit. Hey good for palm.

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
rigter @ 4/5/2002 3:29:28 AM #
Tsk tsk tsk, you guys are so cruel.
Scaring off little trollies only because it uses a Microsoft technique to compute market share?
Tsk tsk tsk, you ought to know that ppc share always increases and others always go down, don't you?

hehe

Cheers,
Jan

/*
One thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse.
*/

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/5/2002 3:13:11 PM #
> is the country breakdown indicating growth for each

No, that's the percentage of the total for each country. So in Germany, 49% of all handhelds sold were made by Palm.

RE: IMPOSSIBLE
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/8/2002 1:01:50 AM #
This is pretty bad news for PPC. Now is the time that they should be creaming Palm. PPC can't wait for Palm to have 64 megs, hi res color screens (already too late thanks to Sony), and hundreds of mhz in an ARM cpu. Also don't forget the tons of $ behind Microsoft, Compaq and HP (soon to be Hewlett Paqard?) Instead, Palm is increasing its share despite the enormous hardware disadvantages and will probably do even better once they match PPC's features

I have a question...

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 8:56:53 PM #
...why is it that when a story comes out like this, it's the gospel, but when Gartner or ZDNet posts a favorable article about PPC, they don't know what they're talking about or they're on Microsoft's payroll?

RE: I have a question...
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 9:37:18 PM #
Because Gartner and ZD-Net don't know what they are talking about and they are on Microsoft's payroll.

RE: I have a question...
peter167 @ 4/4/2002 9:54:29 PM #
No, that's not the case. If there are news good for PPC, they will beat their drums and sing so that they make sure anyone hears them. If there are bad news for PPC (good new for Palm), they will try to neglect and talk about something else. The worst is Gartner, the so-called independent research firm, whose research is based on its boss.

******************
Lie is the future.
RE: I have a question...
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/4/2002 10:15:55 PM #
So apparently Gfk are the Lords of Information. Anyone else that thinks negatively of Palm are just plain ignorant. Wow, Palm's cheerleaders are almost getting as bad as Apple's.

RE: I have a question...
crustyedgeofinnovation @ 4/4/2002 11:50:39 PM #
Troll! Troll! Troll!....

Just kidding.....

RE: I have a question...
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/5/2002 3:43:26 AM #
Usually Gartner makes PROJECTIONS based on very little.
This is fact, make what you want of it.

For example before PPC even made ANY inroads on Palm they PROJECTED MS would overtake Palm, which fyi was sopposed to have happened by now. When PPC made SMALL gains on Palm, Palm was doomed, but at least they pushed back the time of the projected PPC lead. There was no data ever to support their biased claims.

The difference is that this DATA is not some wishful projection. It doesnt even make any conclusions. It could have stated, "PPC will never catch Palms insurmountable lead." It does no such thing. Gartner OTOH always tries to project Palms demise.

Tell me WHERE HAS GARTNER BEEN HIDING LATELY!!!!
They LOVE to report on PDA sales right?
Wanna bet as long as Palms share grows we will see NO PDA news from Gartner.

What do I expect from an UNBIASED report?
1.Just the facts, no projections
2. Reports that give those facts NO MATTER WHO is gaining share.
3.

IDC forecast
ginsberg @ 4/5/2002 6:34:55 PM #
If you had read the new book "Piloting Palm" by David Pogue, you would know that it was IDC, not Gartner that forecast Microsoft Windows CE would exceed Palm's share already.

RE: I have a question...
I.M. Anonymous @ 4/5/2002 8:39:59 PM #
Lets see hmmmm do the facts that you state in any way prove that Gartner did not give such a forcast? Try this. Search THIS site and you will find that EVERY time GARTNER says ANYTHING about PDAs it is some projection about PPC overtaking Palm.

These new positive Palm numbers will NEVER be revealed by Gartner. Yet they ARE a research firm they must have the data. Wait till PPC gets a bump and Gartner will be all over it.

European availability of Sony devices

I.M. Anonymous @ 4/7/2002 5:55:18 PM #
To be fair to Sony, you have to localize the product for the EFIGS (eng,french,italian,german and spanish) languages on a Palm, this takes time - Palm have a headstart on this, as they don't ship with the extra progs such as PG Pocket. however I don't think their prices are outrageous. a T625 in the UK is 280.00 Ex VAT = $400 = US price of T615. Also Sonys policy is to "betatest" the product in Japan, iron out the bugs for the US version then check for translation bugs in that PDA and then release one version in europe. Thats why the states got an N710C with OS 3.5.3S and Europe got the N770U with OS 4.1S. I would expect only to see the PEG-NR70V hit the european shelves in June.

RE: European availability of Sony devices
rigter @ 4/8/2002 4:54:29 AM #
This is true only for the larger european countries, such as Germany and France where pda's in any other language than their own simply wouldn't sell. Also, spanish is not only spoken in Spain, but in most of south/middle america as well.
International translations are part of the deal if your market is the globe itself, not an excuse for being late.

For most countries in Europe - including the Netherlands - there is no local version, because apparently not enough potential buyers speak the language. Scandinavian countries for example, or the Balkan countries.

If this release policy by Sony is true - Japan first, US second and Europe last - then I do not understand Sony's product release policy.
They release products at a speed noone can match. By the time it hits Europe, the next generation is already there! And the prices!
If you want to compete with Palm, make sure you get there at the same time or earlier at a competitive price. Not the other way around. I am not surprised at all to see Sony selling so little in Europe.

Sony-ista's flamed Palm about the supposedly inferior m505 compared to the 625. Not so in Europe. It was released at about the same time as the m515. The 625 served as a testbed for Palm, effectively.

Cheers,
Jan

/*
One thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse.
*/

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