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Comments on: Opinion: Mike Cane's 2003 Palm OS Predictions

Long-time PIC contributor Mike Cane emerges from the shadows to become a human target for the PDA zealots by again daring to predict what will happen with the Palm hardware and software platforms in the next year. Sony worshippers are advised to ingest a bromide before reading. Idolators should take digitalis.

 

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 How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
dliao @ 11/22/2002 11:06:47 AM #

These are very interesting prediction indeed, however, I am surprised to find Mr. Cane to predict other company's design philosophy (#5) by guessing Sony will stick with the NR/NX design, and Palm SG will take some of its strength. I don't agree with anyone who challenges any company's design philosophy when they have nothing to do with the company, specifically the design teams of the company. Not to mention someone who's from total differnet world and culture (West East?).




 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:16:17 AM #

Fair enough. But if Sony were going to do a keyboardless N-series, wouldn't they have done so by now? They're on a three-month product cycle, it seems. Palm has already said they intend to go after BT and WiFi markets. We'll see.


 "stupid Bluetooth"?
pdangel @ 11/24/2002 12:02:01 PM #

"(OK, so it's gorgeous and that stupid Bluetooth, instead of including smart WiFi, appeals to the cellphone-hungry Euros.)"

LOL. Real funny. I think you mean "WiFi (battery sapping) hungry Americans". You made me laugh. Thanx. Mike Cane?

Stupid Bluetooth? Why not say "stupid wifi"?. What's the use of the word "stupid" here? Bluetooth and WiFi are DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES which serve DIFFERENT NEEDS/USES. Why not add both? I use both and i love them both....

If Bluetooth is STUPID then WHY are companies around the world like Microsoft, Nokia, IBM, Intel, Dell, Toshiba, Fujitsu-Siemens, HP/Compaq, Palm, Qualcomm etc. etc. backing this technology???? Because it's stupid???? YEAH RIGHT.

That all the important Operating Systems like Palm, Microsoft, Symbian, Linux and Apple have Bluetooth Stacks is because Bluetooth is stupid?????
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=PALM&read=43149

That Intels upcoming Banias platform includes WiFi-Bluetooth Coexistence Solution is stupid?: Intel Wireless Coexistence System: Silicon Wave has collaborated with Intel to develop a Bluetooth + Wi-Fi wireless coexistence solution for Intel's Banias mobile PC platform. The Intel Wireless Coexistence System is based on Silicon Wave's SiW1701™ and SiW1750™ Bluetooth chipset and enables simultaneous operation of both Bluetooth and Wi-Fi wireless technologies.
http://www.siliconwave.com/coexistence.html#intel
http://www.siliconwave.com/applications.html

That various handheld makers like Intermec, HP/Compaq and next year Dell have or will have both WiFi and Bluetooth built into there PDA's is stupid?????

Palm Tungsten T Bluetooth review
http://www.pencomputing.com/palm/Pen47/tungstent.html

BLUETOOTH ROUNDUP: Palm, Products, Reviews, Compatibility, Setups, Software (56 total) e.g Games, Calendaring/Scheduling solution, SMS, Print Software etc....
http://discussion.brighthand.com/palmhandhelds/showthread.php?s=&threadid=18749



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
adamrichman @ 11/24/2002 9:40:35 PM #

How long have you been reading PIC dude?


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/25/2002 8:45:04 AM #

"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

2 long. And Dude?

"and out of 10 key items, I was correct with 2.5 of them...."

That's great Mike.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:01:14 PM #

>>"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

>>2 long. And Dude?

... waaay too long.


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/26/2002 3:24:34 AM #

Informative adding Mike. Wouldn't expect anything different beside your "stupid" quote.



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:47:23 AM #

Wow, I'm really hurt by some nitwit whose profile is set up to link "my homepage" to his own PIC profile.


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/27/2002 5:37:10 AM #

1st. You call Bluetooth "stupid"
2nd. ...you follow with adding things like "waaaaay to long" and "am really hurt by some nitwit"

As if i would "hurt" you? What kind of nonsense is that? Am just astound that somebody who supposed to be an expert is using words like this. Tells me who you are.

My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002
by Mike Cane: "The advantage is to use the side slot for data storage and the top slot for a camera, GPS, Bluetooth or even conventional Memory Stick storage."
http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=2754

What's the advantage of using Bluetooth with the slot if Bluetooth is "stupid" Mike?

I also wonder on which grounds a message will be deleted and if calling somebody names is included?



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:07:43 PM #

Hey, you started being smarmy. Go re-read your drivel. And change your handle, unless the "dangel" is really "dangle."


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/28/2002 8:49:53 AM #

This is called the world upside down....

Who started to call Bluetooth "stupid"?
Who started to call somebody names like "nitwit"?

Did i?

I just replied to you misquoted statements.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:10:36 AM #

Don't mind me. I get cranky.


 Can't we all get along?
xtremist5150 @ 12/31/2002 12:35:59 PM #

Woah, woah, guys....first off, the title uses the word PREDICTIONS. That means that there's a fair chance of being wrong, but based on current trends and customer expectations, it's a good way to see how things MIGHT turn out for the year 2003. Think of it as forecasting. Sure, the weatherman might be wrong, but based on patterns in the weather and from what we know about meteorology, he's giving you a BASIC IDEA of what to expect.

And Mike, don't stoop to anyone's level if they berate you...keep up the good work.


 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
DrDoofus @ 1/4/2003 7:08:06 PM #

In reference to this particular thread, I think the most important thing to remember is:

There are two kinds of people in the world; those who classify people into two groups, and those who do not.

 RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 7/28/2003 8:53:08 AM #

Tell that the script maker of the classic movie "the good the bad and the ugly".

The original quote is (The good=Clint Eastwood to the ugly=Eli Wallach : "There are 2 kind of people my friend, those with loaded guns and those who dig....now you dig"

You dig that?

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

Reply to this comment
 Wow!
hkklife @ 11/22/2002 11:09:08 AM #

*shudder* That's a lot of stuff for me to have to digest during lunchtime. I agree with almost every point entirely, except for Sony dropping memory stick. Why? I was helping a buddy shop for a 36" TV this past weekend. Almost all of the "better" Sony Wega units (XBR, etc) had memory stick ports built into the front panels of their TVs. Since a TV, especially an HDTV model, is a device intended to "last" for a longer period of time (7-10 years at least) than your average piece of PC hardware, I doubt Sony would spend the $ to integrate a MS reader into their TV consoles without having at least some semi-long-term commitment to the format.

Also, I'd like to see Gateway sell a Palm OS device, even if it would be mostly rebadging ala IBM, but I am afraid it's not going to happen either. They are having some decent sales from their shocklingly low-priced plasma HDTVs, and I would not be surpruised to see them slowly transition to a boutique peripheral/electronics retail chain that happens to sell a few stylish PCs over mail-order at the same time. Think how Abercrombie & Fitch or Land's End transitioned from a catalog retailer to a brick and mortar retailer.

Regardless of whatever prophecies come true (or don't), kudos to Mike for an intelligent, insightful, and very well-written prognosis! Also, the part about Palm scooping up the remnants of Handspring should have already happened, so don't be surprised if that's a Jan. 2003 headline here at PIC! The final remaining supplies of Visors should be totally gone after this Christmas season, so the timing is just about right...




 RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:18:16 AM #

I think the inclusion of MStick slots in other Sony lines will continue for quite some time -- there are a lot of Sticks still out there. But as for the CLIE...


 RE: Wow!
Admin @ 11/22/2002 11:23:16 AM #

I have to disagree about Sony dumping the memstick too. Just look at all of the products that Sony makes that use the memstick: Clie's, digicams, video cams, audio players, TV's, Laptops, PC's etc... That is more than enough to support the format for some time.

Sony could come up with a Popsickle stick format and build it into all of it's products and it would become a quasi-standard.


 RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:46:20 AM #

Hmmm... perhaps I should have been more specific in my prediction headline? Perhaps: Sony Drops Memory Stick in CLIEs? Nah. I will leave it as it is, but I guess I should have made it more specific to CLIE. We'll see.


 RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 11:57:34 AM #

But why has SONY fallen so far behind SD in memory capacity? Either way, if they abandon MS or not, it is a scandal that SONY has failed so miserably to develop this technology further especially because so many devices depend upon it.

Thanks, Robrecht

 RE: Wow!
melopsittacus @ 11/22/2002 12:02:57 PM #

1) I don't see Palm SG acquiring Handspring. The economics just don't make sense. Palm SG currently isn't a profitable company. Neither is Handspring. Palm is developing its own wireless solution. If Handspring can manage to maintain its marketshare I would predict, actually, that its brand gets bought up by one of the PPC companies.
2)No way. Certainly not this year.
3)No comment.
4)Not so sure. Yes, perhaps a browser, or a server solution. But it makes more sense that they would attempt to get a cut from independent companies by offering to bundle their products into different "packages." No reason why these bundles couldn't be sold, though.
5)Again, no way. Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field, b)as a way of developing an OS specific to laptops, and c)as a strategic attack against Adobe (hell, Corel is now basically a shell company for MS).
6) Well, if they can even marginally improve on the TT, then yes, I agree.
7 - 8). No. More likely that they go Linux, but most likely that they stick with PPC.
9) I agree that I am excited about Palm Source's potential. But they need a large score with one the phone folks, and this would require offering something the MS and Symbian do not at a cheaper price.
10)No. Bloat. Bloat. Bloat. This is what they will / need to stress. With all of the attention of FAT and unhealthy eating, an ad campaign that associates PPC devices with "LARDASS" practically writes itself. It would also serve to draw attention away from the "feature checklist" that MS has used with devastating success in every one of their platforms to date.

 RE: Wow!
rsc1000 @ 11/22/2002 12:09:08 PM #

It is only the geeks here that have a big problem with MS versus SD - Sony isn't sweating any. After all, they sell more MS than all SD vendors combined. Thats the bottom line. They won't even consider dropping MS from CLIE just because PIC users like an open standard.


 RE: Wow!
mtg101 @ 11/22/2002 12:20:15 PM #

Sony will drop the MS??? Oh come on they only dropped Betamax this year!!!

---
russ@russb.fsnet.co.uk

 RE: Wow!
kevspalm @ 11/22/2002 2:23:33 PM #

Sony still uses MiniDisc. I think the MemStick will be around for a while.

-----------------------------------------
Palm IIIx for 3 years & LOVING IT!

 RE: Wow!
jeffreytz @ 11/22/2002 4:22:25 PM #

There are a 100 times more Memory Sticks in use than SD/MMC cards, which are just starting to really catch on now. If CF can survive this long (unbelievably, I bought another 256MB CF card the other day for my Canon digital SLR, they're so cheap!), than the Memory Stick is good for another 5 years.


 RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 4:25:28 PM #

I'm not worried about MS surviving or pointless arguments about open source versus proprietary formats--I just wish SONY would support it better by increasing MS capacity.

Thanks, Robrecht

 RE: Wow!
Sowen @ 11/22/2002 6:22:24 PM #

Why do you say, "Sony Still Uses the Minidisc" as if it were a bad thing. The MiniDisc is a hugely sucessfull recording media in Japan, nearly every young person has one, and I think they are just starting to take off here.

http://members.shaw.ca/Warped_Perception/index.html">http://members.shaw.ca/Warped_Perception/index.html

 RE: Wow!
cbulock @ 11/23/2002 12:27:08 AM #

SOny has said they will release 256MB, 512MB, and probably 1GB Memory Sticks this year. So the capacity will catch up to SD. There is no way they will drop MS. They have a great system going.

Take a picture with a Sony camera, view it on the Clie.
Catch a movie on your Sony video camera, watch it on your Clie.
Take pictures or movies with your Clie and pop the MS in any Sony laptop and view them.

I think the way Sony has integrated MS into there products wil improve even more in 2003 and certainly we won't see the end of the MS. Maybe they will do a SD/MMC and MS on a Clie, but that might still be unlikely.


 RE: Wow!
dsm363 @ 11/23/2002 1:32:13 AM #

I would have to disagree with "Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field" The tablet PC is something physicians would definitely not use. They need something simple that fits in the palm of their hand or pocket, not a $2000 tablet that they have to lug around. There might be other uses in medicine but in few cases I think.



 RE: Wow!
SuperUser @ 11/23/2002 5:10:06 PM #

Mike,
are you trying to be interesting or are these really educated guesses ?
Sony drop memory stick in 2003 ? Sony kills microsoft Tablet PC ? ...
If you are not a psychic, there is no way I will believe these. Well, even if you are a psychic ...

 RE: Wow!
elo @ 11/24/2002 10:26:06 AM #

MiniDisc has no peer as a recording format. It is intended as a replacement for cassettes and there is absolutely no good reason why anyone should still buy something that plays cassettes. MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

elo


 RE: Wow!
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 11:16:06 AM #

> MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

It doesn't need to, it's fine where it is. I have yet to see an alternative that matches MD in terms of pocketability, versatility and media price.


 RE: Wow!
Nate @ 11/25/2002 4:47:44 PM #

1) As long as Sony makes digital cameras, the memory stick will continue to be their format.

2) The minidisc will be (has been) killed, at least in the United States, by HD-MP3 players.


 RE: MemortStick (Duo) and Minidisc (was: Wow!)
goofrider @ 11/27/2002 3:20:26 AM #

MemoryStick is inferior to SD by all means (SD has better I/O capability and much faster transfer speed). But Sony will continue to support it even if no-one else is using it. Sony has the means to go at it alone.

Sony is introducing the smaller MemoryStick Duo this year, it'll be debuting in the Sony Eircsson P800 smartphone. This is further evidence that MS is not going away any time soon.

Minidisc is hugely popular in Japan, many parts of Asia and Europe. Just the Japanese market alone can sustain Minidisc for another 10 years.

While the U.S. audience has been rather negative about Minidisc, the US Minidisc market is still growing steadily and remains profitable. Even places like Target has been carrying Minidisc recorders and media for well over 3 years.


 RE: Wow!
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:58:02 PM #

Not everyone have a computer or PDA (SHOCK!), so HD-MP3 isn't really going to kill MD just yet. Heck, it is getting more and more shelf space in our local electronic stores... (From nothing to a very visible little shelf in the audio department, it's pretty good.)


 RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:09:02 PM #

Heck, even I wouldn't pronounce MiniDisc dead.


 RE: Wow!
JonathanChoo @ 11/27/2002 8:11:25 PM #

Minidisc is hughly popular in both Europe AND Asia. This is because of the size of portable player and the fact that you can now record up to 240 minutes on a single Minidisc which usually costs as cheap as £1 per blank for a good brand.

Current PDAs: Palm Tungsten T, Toshiba e310

Past PDAs: Palm V, Palm m505, Palm m515, Sony Clie N770C/U, Sony Clie T625C, Sony Clie NR70V


 RE: Wow!
RedJess @ 1/2/2003 10:18:44 AM #

The only thing that so far rivals the minidisc is the iPod in regards to portablility- the majority to all of your music collect in one format on one device. Except that the lowest price for an ipod is about 300 dollars, where a good minidisc player can be bought for $150. Until stuff like the iPod is cheaper and more common, the minidisc won't die out.

 RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:40:23 PM #

You guys reason like the US makes up the entire world. Minidiscs is the recording media of choice in Japan and Asia. And you are right: MS outsells the SD by a hundred times over. While you guys are just raving on and on and on about using SDs on your Palms, Cams, etc, there are people using MS on videocams, televisions, laptops, Clies, cameras, MP3 players, hi-fis and just about every other gadget you can think of. Maybe it's time to step out of that well.

 RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:49:51 PM #

I forget, but didn't I read somewhere Symbian trumps PPC and even Palm in sales volume in Europe?

Reply to this comment
 Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 11:07:52 AM #

Very interesting. I did a little better than Mike with my predictions for 2002. Read:

http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=4dfaa6267dcf2f3fb810bc48863b3d62&threadid=30223&highlight=PDA+predictions

My crystal ball says:

1. 2003 will be the year that the PPC sector implodes. Consumers continue to shun PPC, despite the new low price. Dell's Pocket PC will be a total flop, but it does succeed in driving other PPC vendors out of the maket...especially Toshiba. As well as smaller players like NEC, Asus and so on. By 2004 only Dell and HP will be left standing, and Microsoft's slice of the handheld OS market will shrink back below 20% again...this time for good.

2. I agree that Palm SG will unveil a really kick ass device with virtual graffiti and other high-end features. Palm will surprise us all with new products that, for the first time ever, aren't boring.

3. Sony continues to mop the floor with PPC, as I predicted before. By next spring the company will unveil a replacement for the T-series that really impresses. Also Sony will introduce its first built-in wireless device that sets the PDA market ON FIRE, and begins drawing waves of PPC users.

4. Handspring ceases to exist as an independent entity. By Q3, they are acquired by a wireless company. Kyocera perhaps.

5. OS6 based hardware hits the market by Q3, in time for the lucrative "Back to School" buying season.

6. OS6 turns out to be the most impressive mobile OS on the market, even making Symbian's OS look like left-over thanksgiving turkey (sorry, had to throw in a holiday theme).

7. Microsoft's Smartphone is a dud.

8. Tungsten and Zire turn out to be very successful products, despite the naysayers.

9. Mike stops making predictions. ;-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs


 RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:38:29 AM #

Foo, you dog! I should have printed your predictions last year when I first saw them. I can't tell if they were "updated" since then. Heh-heh. You hit some things right on the head -- but you were also picking on PPC too.


 RE: Interesting predictions
Gekko @ 11/22/2002 11:44:04 AM #

>"Dell's Pocket PC will be a total flop"

Mark this prediction down. I'm sure it will come back to haunt him.


 RE: Interesting predictions
ska @ 11/22/2002 11:45:16 AM #

1. Sony and SG will have roughly equal share controling about 20-25% market each. Total Global POS will go near 50-55% mark by Q2.

2. Handspring will cease as independent company or become a small niche outfit like Handera, providing consulting service to phone makers.

3. Tungstan W fails. TT gets 3-5% of the market. The bulk of Palm SG sales are still 4.1, specially the sub $150 units.

4. M555 delayed, trying to fix m550 too much, becomes unstable. Ended up with 'just do it' release, another minor upgrade to m550 but 175mhz, 32MB, same everything else.

5. OS 6.0 will not be ready before Q3, leaving OS5.0 as high end OS of Palm SG pretty much the whole year, leading to complete erosion on their high end market. Sony will have them for lunch on $400 plus market.

6.MS smartphones is only a negligable player. It cannot compete yet against Nokia and friends. 2004 will be the year instead.

7.Dell plus one or two unknown Taiwanese OEM will rule the $300 market. HP tattering along with miniscule share in this market. Toshiba is out from there. Sony kills Palm inthis category, TT will be $250 by Q3.

8. grafitti will stay put in 2003 in all Palm SG models. Sony improved the VG with various tweak, releasing standard T form with Xscale.

9. integrated WiFi will have VoiP as killer app. Low quality video cam-chat will start to catch on. Sony will include complete wireless software with their NX, and at least one PPC model will have integrated camera model.

10. all above $400 PDA will have some sort of built in wireless, specially WiFi.


 RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 11:47:56 AM #

MikeCane: "I should have printed your predictions last year when I first saw them. I can't tell if they were "updated" since then.

"Updated"? Shame on you Mike, I never cheat! :-)

Just look at the "last updated" date at the bottom of that article. I only updated a few minutes after I posted to correct all the spelling errors, and to add that last bit about cell phones. That's all. Haven't touched it since.

Mikecane "You hit some things right on the head -- but you were also picking on PPC too."

Yeah, I just love twisting the knife. But I was right. Sony really clobbered the PPC makers (Sony is now in the number two spot) and Casio did leave the PPC market.


"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs


 RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 12:05:43 PM #

Gekko: "Mark this prediction down. I'm sure it will come back to haunt him."

Don't worry. If I'm wrong, there are several hundred people who will be more than happy to laugh in my face.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs


 RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 12:23:57 PM #

I should also add to my predictions that I believe Sony will beat Palm to market with the first "cheap" color PalmOS device. We'll see a $150 color Clie within 60-90 days.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

 RE: Interesting predictions
bobes @ 11/22/2002 1:08:20 PM #

do you mean new product or the to-be markdowned SJ30?

 RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 1:21:13 PM #

> "do you mean new product or the to-be markdowned SJ30?"

Either case is possible. They may slash the SJ30 to fill that space, or they might design a new line to better control costs.


"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs


 RE: Interesting predictions
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 1:58:17 PM #

Palm has already reduced the price of the m130 to $199 after rebate, and the CLIE T615C's have been seen lately under the $200 mark (a real bargain, IMO). Even the Palm IIIc is available from sellers on PriceWatch starting at $126, and still is a nice device. If I was new to Palm OS, I'd consider the bundle at compgeeks.com: IIIc, keyboard, case, chargers, extra cradle, and modem for $185.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com

 RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:20:22 PM #

Even a $199 CLIE T615 is not attractive to me. Why? That ^%$#@ girlie stylus! What was Sony thinking, putting that too-short/too-thin toothpick in their devices?! They MUST get rid of that.

But... they still haven't fixed the spacing of their English-language fonts, either...


 RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 3:51:09 PM #

The Clie T615 doesn't count. It is discontinued. I'm talking about a PERMANENT placement at the $150 price point.

I agree, Mike. The stylus is horrible. It must have been designed for a toddler's hands. Tungsten has a wonderful stylus. Chromed metal..nice and thick. A manly stylus! :-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs


 RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 4:23:01 PM #

My hand has had the orgasmic pleasure of fondling the TT stylus. Now THAT is a stylus!


 RE: Interesting predictions
TobyG @ 11/22/2002 4:36:52 PM #

"It must have been designed for a toddler's hands."

You don't have kids, do you Foo? Toddlers don't have the full dexterity of adult hands yet, so a smaller stylus would actually be harder for them to use. Kindergarteners maybe. ;)

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown


 RE: Interesting predictions
abosco @ 11/22/2002 10:46:59 PM #

"My hand has had the orgasmic pleasure of fondling the TT stylus. Now THAT is a stylus!"

Mike, you watch too much porn! ;-)

Great job on the predictions. This year's going to be a better year for you, guaranteed. The only one you're dead wrong in is the Memory Stick. Sony encourages buying only Sony products and the more proprietary standards they make between their own models, the better. Remember the chart they laid out? They had the 256, 512, and 1 GB MS's out by January '03, as well as the first Duos making their appearance. The thing that bothers me is that the Duos are the size of SD's, yet they can barely fit 16 MB into it so far. SD's are up to 512 MB now, and the MS's are more than double the size of it and theyre four times smaller in space!

I don't know, only time will tell.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.


 RE: Interesting predictions
cbulock @ 11/23/2002 12:56:19 AM #

Mike, your predictions seem so-so. And Foo, you seem to have some good predictions. But I have to say, Ska, as much as I ususally don't agree with your point of view, you seemed to have a really good prediction of 2003. If I had to make predictions, it would look much like yours.


 RE: Interesting predictions
abosco @ 11/23/2002 1:19:11 PM #

The part that is so incredibly wrong is that he says that the TT will be $250 by Q3. The m515 is $299 with a $50 rebate right now, and it has been out for almost a year. By Q3, the TT will be just about as old as the m515 is today. The m515 has only dropped $100 in price with the rebate and it started at $399. The TT started at $499. Would it make sense for them to cut the price in half ($250) when the m515 has barely been marked down $100? I don't think so.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

 RE: Interesting predictions
DeNiro @ 11/25/2002 12:04:56 AM #

Somebody give that Jimn367 guy a medal... he was totaly wrong.

He's in this thread btw:
http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=4dfaa6267dcf2f3fb810bc48863b3d62&threadid=30223&highlight=PDA+predictions


 RE: Interesting predictions
reza666 @ 11/26/2002 7:11:03 AM #

Maybee this hasn't anything to do with the thread but i think atleast the multitasking and also a better file system should be the first thing Palm fixes in the new OS or maybee even hardware (not sure if there is a limit in the hardware ??? does anyone know?).

I mean atleast something like MS explorer. I owned a IPAQ before but i sold it after 2 month since the battery time was REALY bad. Now i have a TT and i'm both pleased and dissapointed, mainly beacouse of the 2 issues above and also no mp3 program.
And also some very basic functions are missing. For example if i want to save a contact "Mr X" then palm save this as "X,Mr" that is "Lastname,FirstName" . You should be able to choose something as basic as this. but like i said thera are ALOT of things like that which i think works much better in IPAQ but then again the battery time and weight factor convinced me to buy PALM TT.
finally i must say it is a awsome product :) Just hope i can upgrade to OS 6. I hate it when companies release new hardware with new software. We poor people can't efford to change Hardware every 5-month damed ;)


 RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:49:17 AM #

>>Maybee this hasn't anything to do with the thread but i think atleast the multitasking and also a better file system should be the first thing Palm fixes in the new OS

-- obviously, you did not read all of the links or even investigate them. Do so.


 My predictions...
moko @ 12/2/2002 10:44:21 AM #

My predictions for 2003...
Mike Cane realises he is not Nostradamus and that staring into too many teacups will make him go blind.


 RE: Interesting predictions
quengho @ 1/8/2003 11:28:15 AM #

(this is Argent from Brighthand... the stupid PIC account creation scheme kept refusing to send me mail, so the handle "argent" is owned by a zombie)

1. Windows powered handhelds will continue to do about 15%-20% of handheld retail sales, just as they have for as long as they've been on the market.

2. I hope you and Mike are right on this one... SOMEONE needs to produce a "Color Handera".

3. I don't know about "mopping the floor". Sony (and Handspring, before they self-destructed) each managed to match the PPC in market share, and I expect Sony to keep doing that, while Palm retains the largest market share.

4. Christmas 2001 I predicted that Handspring would be eaten by the cellphone companies, so I have no argument there.

5. If OS6 comes out this year, it'll either be effectively Beta quality or it'll be too close to OS5 in capability to do what I think it needs to do. I would much rather they made sure it was right than try and meet an unrealistic deadline... and I don't think they *need* OS6, if they can improve the network support in OS5 just a little.

6. You have a much more exciting vision of OS6 than I do. :)

7. Especially if the lawsuit (see The Register) gets nasty.

8. Agreed.

9. What are you smoking?

Reply to this comment
 Why?
ganoe @ 11/22/2002 11:31:12 AM #

Why make an article out of the predictions of someone who apparently can't count to 11, and is accurate less than 30% of the time? Oh, and of those 11 predictions, only one (Sony dual-slot PDA) of the three he actually got right was something new.



 RE: Why?
SonofWan @ 11/22/2002 12:35:28 PM #

This seems to be the only correct statement on the page.


 RE: Why?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:02:30 PM #

I've waited to reply to this, to let them stew.

Even though I've called 11 a prediction, it is a *negative* -- something that I forsee NOT being done. I also said 10 "key" items. Now, if you want to count 11, then I had 3.5 correct.

But then, if I had just done a list of 10 things that would NOT happen (ie, "Apple will NOT license PalmOS"), then I would have had more correct.

Reply to this comment
 I'd like to make predictions...
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 11:50:19 AM #

I'd like to be able to post a "ten prediction" list, but I'm in the odd position of knowing too much under non-disclosure agreements to actually make one without fear of releasing confidential information. Oddly, I probably don't know enough under NDA to be able to have a high accuracy rate, though.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com

 RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:58:11 AM #

Ah, but you see, I don't have *any* inside knowledge from any company. If I did, I wouldn't write a predictions list. That'd be cheating. And violating all sorts of NDAs.


 RE: I'd like to make predictions...
George4 @ 11/23/2002 11:00:00 AM #

Actually, in-the-know info is only a distraction from actual
market changes and oppurtunity. What we (geeks) all see is that
the handheld market could be what has become of the home computer market.
And one day it will. But first we will need:
1. A single standard of electronic text for Education AND business (though they needn't be the same)

2. To get rid of styluses ALTOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!!
I can't emphasize this enough. Do you have your own pen? is it a skinny BIC?
I bet you have an ergonmic writing tool like everyone else. PDA tips built into pens will eventually
be standard on pens. (go check wal-mart right now)If your like the average PDA user, when you need to input,
who cares what blunt object you use? Once the pda/pens are all around, you won't even remember needing one.
(are you designers listening???)bottom line, all styluses are uncomfortable and stupid. You're neigbors' arthritic mother wouldn't consider compsoing
e-mail with one. And that is your market.
3. As far as second-guessing SONY, You are kidding right? I happen to love my 128MS's. They will probably come out with the larger ones when we have bought all the mass produced existing ones.
Unlike all these other tech companies, Sony does nothing without first securing a profit, evne if they must under-produce to avoid overruns. Try studying SONY and your predictions will be more likley
4. oh, getting back to what it takes to make PDA's commonplace: see #1 and suggest federal subsidation of institutions willing to convert all text in the public domain into Palm or E-book format. Now that's a
platform i'd vote for.

G4



 RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:37:48 PM #

>>2. To get rid of styluses ALTOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!!

-- over my dead body will you take away my stylus!!

You think voice commands will work on a busy NYC street (horns honking, boom boxes blazing, sirens wailing, me cursing at the damned tourists to walk faster or to go stroll in the street!)? You think I *want* people to overhear what I'm telling my PDA?

You have gone overboard. This is like a typewriter fanatic saying we must get rid of pencils and pens altogether.


 RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 4:57:36 PM #

>>Try studying SONY

-- oh, and I have. Have you read the books out there? How do you think I know the name of Ibuka when most people have only heard of Morita?


 RE: I'd like to make predictions...
SPCagigas @ 12/6/2002 1:52:16 PM #

Umm...
I think you missed the point of the "get rid of styluses(sic)" comment entirely. No one mentioned voice activated organizers at all. The point is that, given the small size of a Palm organizer, there isn't much room to make a nice, well balanced, ergonimically sound stylus.

Right now, no one bundles a really good stylus with an organizer -- the last one I had that I really LIKED was on my old Newt120. I don't expect to see that type of stylus returning. Instead, I expect to see the cost of pen/stylus combos to continue to drop, and PDA developers to eventually drop the whole stylus/silo/storage area as non-value-added to their business.

Steve

Reply to this comment
 WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/22/2002 11:46:06 AM #

I'm sorry, but would all you Yanks get over WiFi for handhelds. Just because QualComm won't let you have cool mobiles you get all funny over Bluetooth. WiFi is fine for setting up a network in the office, or ad hoc networks in other buildings with laptops, but is totally useless for PDAs. For a start, WiFi uses too much power. All these new CPUs and hi res colour screens are draining batteries enough without adding the burden of WiFi.

I'm well aware of the "BT and WiFi are complementary etc." arguments; but for PDAs BT is so much more flexible. It can be used to set up piconets between BT devices (inc. routers, laptops, etc.), which can be 'daisy chained' together to get over the 30-100m limit. How big is the average Starbucks anyway? Wirelessly linking to a WAN (GPRS/EDGE/3G, whatever) means you don't have to be in an urban area to get wireless data. The addition of auto syncing and headset profiles just make the BT for PDAs argument more compelling.

So. In my opinion, you are very wrong about WiFi being added to PDAs at the expense of Bluetooth. Over the coming year we will see more aqnd more PDAs with Bluetooth; and you'll just have to kick Qualcomm in the ass.

FBN


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 12:01:31 PM #

WiFi is the thing here in the States. Did you read the linked article? Go into any store here, and you can pick up a WiFi box to broadcast your DSL/Cable modem signal (oops, two more things not popular across the pond...) -- I've yet to see any BT boxes in retail stores.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/22/2002 12:18:39 PM #

WiFi is quite big here too. But we recognise that it's not ideal for small mobile devices. Nearly all new mobile phones (that is, *all* new mobile phones except for Motorola!) have GPRS and Bluetooth. It is a combination that just makes more sense than PDA/WiFi.

You can also get BT 'boxes' as you put it. Check out www.expansys.com or www.blueunplugged.com. They're a bit pricey at the moment, but prices should drop significantly in a couple of months.

As for the DSL, yeah it's a bitch here. It's probably more widespread than you think; but we have our own Qualcomm here -- BT (that's British Telecom, not Bluetooth) who seem unwilling (for monopoly purposes) to let other companies offer DSL easily. Still, prices are coming down quite a bit now, so hopefully there will be more take up.

WiFi just has no place in a small, go anywhere, handheld device.

FBN


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 12:39:17 PM #

I think FBN has a good point. It seems that Palm (hardware) is focusing on BT. If they switched to WiFi, they would loose their battery capacity advantage over SONY. But I would definitely like to see Palm adopt bigger screens with virtual graffiti.

Thanks, Robrecht

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mattgrab @ 11/22/2002 12:42:50 PM #

I am a user in the States. Palm SG is doing the right thing by going bluetooth. the new ipaq has both 802.11 and bluetooth. Being a member here, I'm obviously not your average user. But, I think some of my use could fit the typical average user model. I have wi-fi at work, and at home. If I had wi-fi in my palm, would I use it? Maybe only to do hot-syncs. Why? If I'm at home or in the office, I use a PC to browse the web. If I'm in a meeting, I don't typically need to refer to the web. I refer to my notes, which are stored locally. If I am away from my office, and I need net access, it is to check my email, or log in to an office pc for repairs (this is not typical). I can do this with my Handspring Visor with a Red-M Bluetooth card, and my Ericsson T68m Bluetooth phone. I also wear a jabra bluetooth headset. While technically speaking, I would call bluetooth vs. wi-fi roughly the same, there are other differences.
I think it comes down to distribution.
Consumer products cycle very quickly. TI could introduce an 802.11b headset that is very low power.
But how long does it take to create a national wireless infrastructure? 3G in the US has a tremendous head start in providing largely complete geographic coverage. If somebody wanted to do Wi-fi and have anywhere near the coverage, I would say they are looking at 2-3 years. the top 3-5 us wireless carriers are going to have largely complete geographic 3G coverage in the next 12 months. Phones cycle very quickly. Many phones already have bluetooth. So in 12 months, if someone has a cellphone, they can have 3G service for their phone, pda, and laptop anywhere in the US. While somebody with an 802.11 pda and laptop are still waiting for coverage in the US. Qualcomm is working on bluetooth chipsets, and is even selling some. All of the top 3-5 are going to have complete coverage, and complete a complete bluetooth product line in the next 12 months - guaranteed. In addition, how long have network print servers and 802.11 wireless print servers been around? They have a pretty good track record. HP is selling bluetooth printers. Bluetooth will go into all devices. Don't forget about the times you have to hook up a friends computer for them, simply because they don't know where all those blasted cords go. Bluetooth's goal (and they are getting there) is to replace all those cords.
802.11 has better range, and so is better in the office, and at home. But once you leave the office, cell phones + bluetooth have the range people need. Bluetooth is also introducing a high-power mode, where the range is increased (for inside the office).
Bluetooth can look up your phone # in your PDA, and dial your phone, and transfer the call to your headset - TODAY.
Bluetooth may have started later than 802.11, but it is in the lead, and I think it will hit critical mass quicker than a nationwide 802.11 network.

Matt

ps - Sony will still provide memstick for clie's - but they may add SD in addition. There are just too many other memsticks to not keep it in their pda's.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 2:05:46 PM #

Actually, the device I'd love to see would be a WiFi/BT crossover access point. It would basically be a small box that had a WiFi transceiver on it that you could carry with you. It would be able to roam to local WiFi networks and would also present a BT Internet access profile for local BT devices. It would host a mini-web server that you could connect to from a paired BT device that would let you see what 802.11b networks were avaialble and handle details like WEP keys.

Oh, it would be either battery powered or recharagable :)

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com


 There we go again...
Stefanos @ 11/22/2002 2:17:10 PM #

I can't believe there are people who "complain" about a PDA having integrated bluetooth. Especially Palminfocenter contributors.

Why is it so hard for people in the US to understand that bluetooth is immensely useful in countries with widespread (and cheap) wireless internet access through GSM/GPRS networks? Is there anyone who would say no to always- on wireless access through a PDA or laptop no matter where they are? With bluetooth and a GPRS phone you don't have to be in your office to access the net. You can do it while relaxing on a beach somewhere in the Aegean, or you can check your email just before boarding a plane at Heathrow.

If Wi-Fi was as widespread (i.e. would allow wireless internet access throughout a whole country or continent) and cheap it would be equally good. As it stands, it only exists in corporate LANs, and that's useful too (though not for everyone).

In Greece you can get GPRS internet access for as low as $12-$15 a month, and that is with NO LIMIT on usage (this is the best deal I know, there are a range of others). For months, I struggled with the IR port on the m505 to connect to my Ericsson T39 GPRS phone. The bluetooth SD card has changed EVERYTHING. Now the Tungsten T has taken it to a different level, allowing you to keep your SD memory card in the slot while connecting to the net.

Are people aware that GSM/GPRS is available in the US? T-Mobile and AT&T provide services, though I haven't checked prices. Unfortunately, 2G and 2.5G networks were slow to pick up in the US, and that may explain why a lot of people don't understand the beauty of connecting a cellphone to a PDA or laptop.

There should be NO debate on whether or not to add BT or Wi-Fi to a PDA. We would like to have both, so that we can have wireless internet nationwide or in the office, but until that happens, I want bluetooth first. It is available NOW and it lets me surf the net CHEAPLY anywhere I want.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
shaggypaul @ 11/22/2002 2:31:02 PM #

Whew! thanks for that. Saved me from writing the same thing. BTW, getting to the point where I'm just going to sew my mobile phone in my jacket because it never leaves my pocket. I can find a name, dial and transfer to my BT headset from my TT faster than unlocking the keys on the phone. And don't even get me started on GPRS. When the data rates get cheaper, I'll probably just work from my sailboat. (once I get one, of course) 802.11? Do whatever you want, but don't take away my BT! :) I don't go to Starbucks.

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/22/2002 3:06:53 PM #

I'm in North America and I have to say that the tide is turning towards Bluetooth for mobile use. Within the last few months I've noticed cell stores for the first time selling BT headsets and actually selling out of them. I have both WiFi and BT networks, but BT makes SOOOO much more sense for the PDA. I mean, you are most likely to use your PDA away from your office, that's why it's small. If you're at your office then why wouldn't you use your computer or the laptop to surf the net, it's way better. When you're out and about, BT allows you to turn your PDA into a connected unit. This post is made over WiFi, but with my laptop!

Don't talk to me about Starbucks, even if I frequented it do I want to use my PDA only when I'm there? I think people against BT are people who never tried it, but have already invested into WiFi. I was there too, but didn't think twice about adding BT to my arsenal. Now that Palm and HP started adding it to their devices you will just see more BT in PDAs, since the initial integration costs have now been surpassed. This is one prediction you can count on in 2003.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:22:06 PM #

Tattoo this on your foreheads: I don't want a cellphone! Not everyone does, you know. Just give me an 802.11b-equipped PDA (preferably from Palm with that 320x480 screen -- Palm won't screw up the stylus!) and I'll be happy. (Well, OK. Happy is too strong a word. I'll feel better. How's that?)


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/22/2002 4:14:21 PM #

Unfortunately (or fortunately), the PDA manufacturers do not model their product development specifically on you. :)

I agree that there are people that don't need BT, but compare the number of people that do want BT to the number of people that want WiFi and you'll see my point.

I have WiFi but I have zero desire to hook up my PDA to it, my laptop is way better for it. Now, even if the end user has a WiFi network at home most of them would rather use the computer to surf the net (after the novelty of surfing with the PDA wears off).

BT on the PDA actually solves a very important and FINANCIALLY LUCRATIVE problem: connectivity on the go. Do you think people spending hundreds of dollars on Blackberry don't have cell phones? For me, BT on my PDA directly saved me money (and heaps of it), I was able to ditch the crappy B&W Blackberry for a cheaper and BETTER solution. If you think BT is a Europe-only fad then the next year will prove you wrong (consider that my prediction).


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
digilaw @ 11/22/2002 5:01:39 PM #

Mike, I think you'll find that your anti-celphone opinions are the minority. I could be wrong but the majority of palm enthusiats, like myself, seem to have a cel phone and love it. That is just here in the US. In the rest of the world, I think its a given that non-celphone/smartphone users with a middle to high end PDA device are in the small minority.

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
masitti @ 11/22/2002 5:55:00 PM #

Wow, great common sense thinking here people... I mean seriously, I thought that my PDA and phone would need 300 feet to communicate!

------------------------
Mario Masitti
O/T Mod
I Love Tennis :)

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
drivola80 @ 11/22/2002 6:28:50 PM #

Mike, I really enjoyed your predictions but why are you so anti-BT and anti-mobile phone ?

I personally believe that the Bluetooth and the WiFI are not in competition. I really like the 11MBit WiFI connection that my university provide but in the same time I the fact that you can travel around all the europe with a full GPRS connection. It works and it's everywhere. Why it's so wrong ? I understand that the mobile phone situation in the USA maybe is more confusing and that's pushing the in WiFI in every corner but for me it's strange that a tech-savy people like a PIC user at the end of 2002 don't like a mobile phone.
Maybe all the european like me are "cellphone-hungry" like you said ;-) But this has a simply explanation: it's since 1993 that GSM is here and after 9 year the network is nearly perfect, even in mine country where the geographical situation is not very nice for wireless, read 3500 meters mountains...

WiFI, Bluetooth, GSM, GPRS are all very nice technologies and I can't really understand why the WiFI, that's perfect for your needs, is so smart and the BT is so stupid. I will never say that WiFI is stupid... Period.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
jho4thclie @ 11/22/2002 6:41:52 PM #

Ben--- You took my idea!!!!!

Check out our Bluetooth forum here--- I want one that I can toss in my backpack so I can use my T|T to check my eMail, etc. on my campus's WiFi.

-JWH


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
TinMan @ 11/22/2002 7:30:26 PM #

Totally agree on the BT issue--and I don't even have a BT mobile phone yet. WiFi hotspots are simply too sparse to be considered reliable (for needed Net Access). I was doing WiFi on an iPAQ over two years ago. It was cool, but after the novelty wore off my usage dropped to near zero--aside from syncing. I realized that most any time I was in WiFi range, it was far better to just use a PC/laptop.

WiFi is neat for laptops and Tablet PCs, but I can't see browsing with a PDA when a PC is nearby. IMHO.

I sync, therefore I am.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
useybird @ 11/23/2002 1:24:21 AM #

at this point bluetooth is so pricey, that it is impractical to buy it. there are actually BT units that you can plug in to the headset jack on your telephone that have a 12-inch cord. That is sad. My local Best Buy hasn't sold one since it has been available (3 weeks), mostly due to the fact that it is a major ripoff at $170. What is the point of this? A corded $10 headset isn't good enough? The only time i would see practicality with a BT headset is if you were a giraffe!

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
rw747 @ 11/23/2002 7:17:59 AM #

BT seems totally misunderstood in the USA. It is a low power (read low current=longer battery life) local network of up to 30ft.
I am in HongKong right now using a T with BT onto GPRS and also a BT headset (OK so not ALL the time). Works absolutely fine and in due course the T will also talk to my BT headset and my PC (also talking to my BT headset or should I say I am talking........well you get my drift).
The GPRS mobile handset will work in most countries including the USA and I hope that GPRS will also be available there as well as digital phoning.
I need no hotspots, can sit on the train here browsing the net etc just fine, moves with me on the car anywhere and most times has no problems.
I am looking forward to getting more BT devices and no doubt keyboards, mice et al will join the throng.
WiFi is available in Europe in much the same way as the USA. The stores have the routers, there are standalone units to plug into the network or whatever.

Can someone point me to a WiFi headset?


 RE: BT Headset expensive
Zuber @ 11/23/2002 12:03:20 PM #


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
iebnn @ 11/23/2002 12:30:24 PM #

ultra long-range wifi is being developed for city areas or something like that
a few miles radius or something, I dunno


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:41:10 PM #

Did any of you even bother to read the linked article about WiFi spots?! Hello, some of us -- like me! -- have access to free WiFi. Why would I want a damned cellphone for $ when I can have WiFi access for free?!


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
gfunkmagic @ 11/24/2002 2:00:45 AM #

Here is an article on infosync epounding the reasons why bluetoth will succeed!!

http://www.infosync.no/show.php?id=2248


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/25/2002 3:44:23 AM #

Jeez Mike, do you think all of us live in NYC or SF??? People complain that GPRS coverage is spotty, I wonder what they'd say talking to you about the "free" WiFi coverage. Personally, I'd take the GPRS coverage over the WiFi coverage any day of the week.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:05:16 PM #

GPRS? Have at it. I have no use for it.

All these BT fanatics! Geez, I never said there should NEVER be ANY BT (though the amount of time it's taken to get out there, you had to wonder if it ever *was* going to come out...) -- I just want Equal Time for WiFi!

When the WiFied TT comes out, all of you can go bellyache about that.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:23:08 AM #

Mike, how can you not use a mobile? I can't even remember the last time I used a landline phone. Having a mobile is just so convenient. I couldn't imagine being without one

Ben. Here's a link for a BT to WiFi gateway. A bit pricey at the moment, but I suspect (hope) that's because it's new.

http://www.expansys.com/product.asp?code=PX20

FBN



 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:42:08 PM #

This is all very surprising. I had expected adherents of competitor PDA platforms to come and argue. Instead, I find out the world has been taken over by -- very vocal!! -- BT-enabled cellphone addicts!

I don't know what to make of that... (and, yes, I realize my anti-cellphone stance is in the wee majority. So be it.)


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/27/2002 5:04:41 AM #

The world HAS been taken over by BT enabled mobile phone addicts!

FBN


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:10:36 PM #

Just how many BT-enabled cellphones are available in the US? AFAIK, just the T68. Any others?


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Maniac @ 11/28/2002 4:05:05 PM #

Just something to add to that WiFi with a few miles radius coverage claim...

Have you ever heard of CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY? If a cell is a few miles wide in a populated area, 802.11b type technology will be so bogged down that it will be USELESS. Imagine how many people would be latching on to it in a densely populated area? And when they all transmit/receive data, be bandwidth will be sucked dry so quick that you'd be better off running POTS. Even 802.11a wouldn't be able to handle it. This is one reason cell technology is invented, to better reuse the limited spectrum of frequencies. Lower the power and you will limit the amount of people you need to serve per point, and easing up on the bandwidth useage per station.


 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Marshall Flinkman @ 1/3/2003 11:34:32 AM #

> Just how many BT-enabled cellphones are available in the US? AFAIK, just the T68. Any others?

Definitely the Nokia 6310i--available, like the T68i, from AT&T, but it should be unlocked, and thus compatible with Cingular or T-Mobile. None from Verizon or Sprint (the major CDMA providers) yet AFAIK, or from Nextel, who has its own system that (I think) is transitioning to CDMA.

IMO, CNet, InfoSync or some site out there should maintain a list of all the BT-equipped cell phones out there and what carriers offer them.

 RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Sleuth255 @ 1/8/2003 8:33:35 AM #

I use a TT and a T68 with T-Mobile. Thanks to bluetooth, the world has changed. Here are my (real world) reasons why:

Looking for houses just driving through prospective neighborhoods, I put the pin number on a Shorewest sign into their website on my TT's browser and brought up the specs. My wife looked at me in amazement when I said "it's got a pool in the back yard honey, but they want 275,000 for it!"

Driving back from Madison WI, my TT's datebook alarm went off: only 5 minutes left until my eBay item auction ended. On my TT, I logged in and placed the winning bid. I now have a 128 meg Panasonic SD card thanks to bluetooth.

At Comdex Fall, I used the PicoBlue access points at the palm pavilion to get email and surf the web to verify the (sometimes incredible) claims of the various salespersons there. Access speed was T1 (760KB/s or so) and I was linking to the access points over 200 feet away. There was no additional battery drain on my TT when I set the backlight off (didn't need it with the bright lighting on the show floor). My wife sent me an email "Check the website for new pics of your little girl". I brought up the (Fotki based) site on WebPro.

The most I heard at the WiFi access points was "I was trying to pull emails, but my batteries died"...

Like I said Mike, the world is changing....

Consider:

Type II (100 meter range, 50 meter realistic) bluetooth USB dongle costs about $60. On the forums posted here, are the instructions for making it work with windows networking on your PC. Got broadband at home? Start surfing with your bluetooth enabled TT too. T-Mobile data service costs $11/mo for 10 megs. I use the heck out of my service and I do about 7-10 megs per month thanks to Palm's proxy based browser.

The world is changing folks. Do you know what I want?

I want my phone to do WiFi. That way it becomes my network access point and my PDA isn't subject to WiFi based battery drain.

Reply to this comment
 one more failed prediction
amike @ 11/22/2002 12:22:24 PM #

Where is this 5Go hard-disk equipped clié, like the Ipod, for Mp3 or divx ? For these purposes, battery-consumption is low...

Reply to this comment
 Symbian OS ...
pistache @ 11/22/2002 12:55:26 PM #

Hi Mike,

Your predictions are cool, perhaps a little too palm biased, but I'm not sure you really know the symbian OS.
I've developped on winCE,Palm and symbian ... and this one is a great one, really modern and neat OS ... that looks really like the perfect OS6 you described ;-).
Do not forget the sale force of nokia and ercisson : Nokia already sold more symbian smarphone than palm + handspring (at leat in europe, 'm not sure of the world wide number ... so I prefer to close my mouth ...).
So count on symbian ...
You elude too quickly the PPC camp : there are many constructors and price are really attracting for such great devices (difficult to admit for such a palm fan like me) ... so I don't see the big flop you announce there ...

Thomas



 RE: Symbian OS ...
mattgrab @ 11/22/2002 1:18:18 PM #

I agree. Distribution is huge. Nokia and Ericsson are hot commodities. The cell phone industry revolves around them, and goes where they go. If they stick an impressive OS inside a cell phone and include it for free, most people are going to use it. Plus, Symbian is a technically advanced, and good-looking OS.
I also agree that a $199 dell pda that does tons of multimedia will be a good seller compared to an m130, or a clie, or whatever it's stacked up against right now.

Matt


 RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:24:11 PM #

Please list all the devices on sale now that have the Symbian OS in them...


 RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/22/2002 3:53:09 PM #

Symbian modern and neat ?????????

Hey, Symbian has its merits but as far as modernity is concerned I have some doubts. Ever tried to create a String? Also, the HelloWorld thing is quite frightening.

OK I'm not a Symbian developer, and hope never to become one. As far as I'm concerned his real strong point is support of Java. Everything else looks like mid 90 stuff, all in C++ and hence not very rapid to develop. AFAIK no garbage collector. Etc etc.

I strongly hope OS6 will be something else, more Java style.
Palmato


------------------------
Tired of PPC? Get a TT!


 RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 4:23:55 PM #

I'm still waiting for a list of "Symbian Inside" devices (I am not being snide; just curious). Didn't infosync pan the Ericsson-Sony SymbianOS phone?


 RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/22/2002 4:58:45 PM #

Try this one.
http://www.symbian.com/technology/symbos-phones.html

Have no idea whether it's complete or not.
Palmato

PS: Bluetooth rules!!!


------------------------
Tired of PPC? Get a TT!


 RE: Symbian OS ...
rsc1000 @ 11/23/2002 12:46:51 PM #

>>Do not forget the sale force of nokia and ercisson

I have been dying to actual get some hands-on time with a Symbian device - my euro friends love the OS. But is there any significant Symbian presence in North America? Any devices at all (i haven't really searched but nothing has crossed my path anywhere).

As for the comments above about nokia and ericisson, remember: nokia and ericisson are massive but they have made there share of mistakes. They were the biggest boosters of WAP, which is widely regarded as one of the biggest blunders in modern tech industry. telcos and handset makers - especially ericisson - lost huge amounts of money on this. Not sure about Nokia, but ericsson is not doing so well these days.



 RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 4:59:55 PM #

>>Try this one.
>>http://www.symbian.com/technology/symbos-phones.html

>>Have no idea whether it's complete or not.

-------

What? That's ALL?! We've been seeing the Symbian OS touted for at least two years with that new skin for portrait screens -- and yet, who has adopted it? What PDAs have it?


 RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/24/2002 5:34:16 PM #

Searching on google I found another phone, the 380s from Ericsson which should have been discontinued by now.
As pda I found the Oregon Osaris Symbian OS Device (just don't ask me what it is), plus the psion series (5mx, 7, Revo and NetBook).
Plus a thing called Netpad, designed mainly for industrial applications.

Is the list somewhat skimpy? You bet. Nokia however should use symbian more intensively in the next few months but, and here's the catch, only in higher end devices.
Also the arrival of the Godot... P800 should make the OS more appealing to other manufacturers.

We'll see.
Palmato


 RE: Symbian OS ...
pistache @ 11/25/2002 4:40:52 AM #

Hi,

I'm a little bit disappointed : It's always the same thing : North Americ is far from being the only tech place in the world. "If it is not in the US it means that it doesn't even exists nor can sell anywhere else"...boring.
I'm european , and worse than that ... french :-). And here symbian phone are selling like hotcake especailly the one 7600 with camera (the big 9200 with keyboard was a major hit too).
Also orange has presented and annouced the windows smartphone they'll sold. And the i-mode has begun this month.
Pda is a little market ... but phone is a huge one, and we see few treo there ...but so many 9200 and 7600.

Thomas


 RE: Symbian OS ...
mikeymikey @ 11/25/2002 6:34:35 PM #

Nokia 7650, 3650, 9210, 9210c, 9210i, 9290
Nokia NGage
SonyEricsson P800
Ericsson R380

infosync haven't reviewed the p800 yet, but all the preview reviews say it's hot.


 RE: Symbian OS ...
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:29:58 AM #

Bond baddies use P800s, so they must be cool...

FBN

Reply to this comment
 2 out of 10 ain't bad
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 1:29:54 PM #

Isn't it nice how hardly anyone has gloated about how wrong Mike Cane was last year?

Thanks, Robrecht

 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
ska @ 11/22/2002 1:34:19 PM #

>>10) Palm will shift its focus to the high-end consumer and businesses, to prop up profits. Sony will address multimedia for consumers, Handspring will go after mainstream consumers with new Springboard-free Palm OS PDAs and its Treo. Newbies and the low-enders will snap up the super-cheap Asian Dragonballed versions. HandEra will get lost in the shuffle. >>

How time has changed. Palm is the low ender, while Sony becomes a major players. Handera and HS are no more.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
nanurse @ 11/22/2002 2:15:57 PM #

Instead of predicting things to come, why don't we just list the things we'd like to see, you know the people that actually buy these products. I realize everyone uses their device diffrently, but guess what maybe somone from Palm and Sony actually read these boards every now and then.

Palm and Sony have been a little short on devices lately. The Tungsten, though I applaud the new design, comes a little short. What was the driving factor for the collabsible design? The device, even when extended to it's full length fit's into my pocket. If they wanted to innovate, the screen would have had a virtual grafitti area. Also, there has to be some rule that says when you release a new product, make sure it has the same capabilites plus new ones than the similar product from the competition. I think it's insane that you cannot play MP3's out of the box n a Tungsten. Everyone seems to say, ah the Ipod is better or this or that is better; Guess what folks, you have to buy that hardware it better be better but it also means you have to drag that other piece of hardware behind you. Kudos on their voice capability, that's long overdue and it also appears to be a very good implementation. Double kudos on the built in Bluetooth. I keep hearing the WiFi naysayers, but unless I'm missing something I'm missing all these WiFi watering holes people keep referring to. I do however have a Blueetooth enable phone and what a great idea to dial my cell phone from my Palm pilot, or use my Palm interface to retrieve information from the web, or to have my phone pass my pop e-mail directly to my Palm without ever talking my phone off my waist. With WiFi, I'd have all these capablities also, but oh yeah, I'd have to locate these mystical WiFi hibs first.

Sony's new NX series device is clearly targeted, not at the serious Palm user but at the leading edge Technofile. Camera, video, voice, keyboard, compact flash, the only thing missing is a toe nail clipper. Also, try getting that thing into a shirt pocket. I guess I'm just simple but Grafitti works for me, it always has, it's intuitive and easy to learn and I'd much rather use that than thumb my way through data entry.

So that brings me my ultimate device, and this is where I hope some visionary at Palm or Sony happens to have a few hours of time to browse my tirade.

1. Increased screen size due to use of virtual grafitti area.
2. Built in voice recorder
3. Built in Bluetooth
4. Memory Stick or SD card slot
5. Play's MP3s (OUT OF THE BOX)
6. Fits comfortably into a shirt pocket
7. A stylus that actually stays in place when you slide it into the device
8. Decent battery life, what I mean by decent is you're required to charge it no less than every 3 days after "normal use"
9. Hi Resolution screen

I realize both Palm and Sony already have a lot of these features, but neither of them have them in a single unit, let's see who brings it to market first.



 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:25:52 PM #

>>With WiFi, I'd have all these capablities also, but oh yeah, I'd have to locate these mystical WiFi hibs first.

-- some of us (like, me!) live in NYC. Lotsa WiFi here. Free too (and, no, I'm not talking about cracking into corp networks). San Francisco, I think, has a lot of free WiFi. As does Hawaii.

What does Bluetooth do for me? Enable me to tell the TT to trust Microsoft's BT-enabled mouse? Feh.

Oh, and also to have to get a cellphone (which I don't want) so I can complain about the lousy voice quality and faint at the bill at the end of each month...


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/22/2002 7:51:09 PM #

"What does Bluetooth do for me? Enable me to tell the TT to trust Microsoft's BT-enabled mouse? Feh.

Oh, and also to have to get a cellphone (which I don't want) so I can complain about the lousy voice quality and faint at the bill at the end of each month..."

BT and WiFi merits aside, this kind of an ostrich mentality will never produce a well balanced set of predictions. You sir are heavily biased.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:42:58 PM #

>>You sir are heavily biased.

Duh. You could tell?


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 10:17:53 AM #

>> Duh. You could tell?

Hiding ignorance behind sarcasm. What an innovative concept.

Fact remains that your "predictions" are nothing more than personal preferences. Every member of this board could compile a wish list and call it predictions.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
Timothy Rapson @ 11/24/2002 6:30:53 PM #

RVDW, you are more than welcome to post your 10 predictions here. It is called "having a discussion". If you don't want one, don't waste your time telling others not to have one.

As regards your comments about blue tooth and such. Many of us also don't see the use, but that is no reason to knock someone else's predictions.

Personally, I find these prediction threads about the most interesting thing about PDAs. There is still a newness and unpredictability about PDAs that is just not there with desktops, cars, homes, and most other goods.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 11:46:48 PM #

> As regards your comments about blue tooth and such. Many of us also
> don't see the use, but that is no reason to knock someone else's predictions.

If you don't see the use for BT, then you're just not informed enough. However, it's quite understandable that the applications for BT are not useful to you personally, but that's completely different from putting the concept down alltogether.

Naming absurd examples (coupling a PDA with a mouse? oh please...) to make a technology seem useless while thousands have embraced it is immature, short sighted and no better than what the PPC afficionados do when trolling these forums. Also, when you don't need a cell phone, just say that you don't need one, not that having a BT device means that you "have to" get one and that they have lousy voice quality. I suppose the man hasn't had his hands on a cell phone in the past 5 years if that's his universal truth.

Sure, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but that includes me. And I say that nonsense arguments don't explain to me why this man's predictions need to be promoted to the headlines while others have shown to be equally, if not more accurate.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:08:40 PM #

>>If you don't see the use for BT, then you're just not informed enough.

Oh, please! You should work for the gov't promoting the war against Iraq! (Do you?)

Some people do *not* have a use for BT. Live with it.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/25/2002 3:19:23 PM #

> Oh, please! You should work for the gov't
> promoting the war against Iraq! (Do you?)

You sure have trouble dealing with criticism for someone posting an article like this. What did you expect? For us to all drop down at your feet and say amen and hallelujah?

And no, my current job suits me just fine, thank you. I have no interest in working for your government.

> Some people do *not* have a use for BT. Live with it.

I've got no problem with that, certainly not to "live with it".

The point is (which you still don't seem to grasp) that ridiculing the technology as a whole is completely different from not seeing a use for it personally. Instead of contributing a balanced set of pros and cons, you come up with nonsensical examples to make BT look useless for *everyone* not just *yourself*.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:51:51 AM #

Hello, I am the author of the piece. It *is* stamped OPINION. If you want "opinion" by committee, go elsewhere. If I don't like something, I will say so. If you don't like that, you can say so. (And you do, repeatedly...)


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/26/2002 1:33:15 PM #

If it's just opinion, why do you get so worked up over mine?

I attend a lot of conferences and the apparently simple task of checking my mail while sitting on one of those typical cramped ad hoc conference hall chairs has always been a balancing act for me; trying to put both my cell phone and PDA on my leg, keeping their IR ports facing eachother and hoping one of them won't drop to the floor when someone pokes me in the back while taking the seat behind me. With BT, I can keep my cell phone in my pocket and my Palm in my hand.

I also send and receive a lot of SMS's. Doing this on a cell phone is much more cumbersome than using a PDA, especially when combined with a PPK or Stowaway. Try doing that with IR, it's even more of an acrobatic performance than emailing from your knee. With BT, my phone is in my pocket or briefcase and I'm comfortably typing away on my PPK while sitting at the dinner table or my office desk.

You may have no use for these applications, but if you're suggesting that BT is no good for anything but connecting your Palm to a mouse, then you have trouble separating facts from fiction. That's *my* opinion.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:44:46 PM #

Well, thanks for explaining that. I had no idea most of you had been doing an IR balancing act like that. That takes dedication. For people like you, I can see why BT is a savior.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
Timothy Rapson @ 11/26/2002 7:43:03 PM #

RVDW,

On rereading your original comments, I see I misread it the first time. I thought you were saying that Mike should not be allowed his own opinion. Perhaps I was mixing your comments up with others in this LONG thread. Your final comments make it more clear that you were not so much saying that the predictions were so lame that Mike should just shut up and go away. You really were just disagreeing his own view of the use of BT.

My apologies for attacking you.

Your final comments on your personal use of BT show it's value well.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/27/2002 6:34:40 PM #

Mike: this far down the thread, I'm no longer sure if you're still being sarcastic or if you really see my point. Being a positive kind of guy, I'll just assume the latter.

Timothy: I would never want to silence anyone (with ska being an exception to that rule although I can even see the merits of his arguments from time to time), nor could I even if I wanted to. I just feel that a one sided view promoted as an absolute truth is not a good thing. BTW, I didn't take your first comment as an attack so no apology is necessary.


 RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:13:59 AM #

I see your point. I wish others had mentioned that struggle up front.

Reply to this comment
 Personal predictions
Lungboy @ 11/22/2002 2:52:47 PM #

This will be the year of Sony

1) Late Summer, software appears with the ability to flash PalmOS 5 to PPC devices. Many converts, end of the year, PPC hardware vendors start to offer models with PPC or PalmOS

2) Sony announces new handheld gaming platform running PalmOS to compete with Nintendo's Gameboy.

3)Handspring in a last ditch "Hail-Mary" release smart phone with different OS, Symbian or Linux. This will fail, but they will still be alive at the end of the year.

4) Zire gets updated to have 4 application buttons and 8 mb RAM, news of new device is leaked. Current Zire sales plummet. Palm has major hardware write-offs.

5) Early spring, Sony's clamshell model boasting speeds over 450mhz, shortly afterwards new models start to increase base memory up to 128mb.

6) Most PalmOS licensees ship devices with bluetooth

7) Cher marries one of the Baldwin's. Doesn't really matter which one. Neither buy a palm.

8) Smart phones start to be replaced by full sized pda's with bluetooth earpieces.

9) I finally finish the RPG I've been working on for 3 years. Fails to attract customers, I sob pathetically.

10) Handera comes out of nowhere with 320x480 500mhz model with 1gb HD and wireless. Comes with docking station to allow KVM/LAN integration.


Well that's the PDA world as I see it, check you in a year!!