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Comments on: Opinion: Mike Cane's 2003 Palm OS Predictions

Long-time PIC contributor Mike Cane emerges from the shadows to become a human target for the PDA zealots by again daring to predict what will happen with the Palm hardware and software platforms in the next year. Sony worshippers are advised to ingest a bromide before reading. Idolators should take digitalis.
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How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?

dliao @ 11/22/2002 11:06:47 AM #
These are very interesting prediction indeed, however, I am surprised to find Mr. Cane to predict other company's design philosophy (#5) by guessing Sony will stick with the NR/NX design, and Palm SG will take some of its strength. I don't agree with anyone who challenges any company's design philosophy when they have nothing to do with the company, specifically the design teams of the company. Not to mention someone who's from total differnet world and culture (West East?).



RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:16:17 AM #
Fair enough. But if Sony were going to do a keyboardless N-series, wouldn't they have done so by now? They're on a three-month product cycle, it seems. Palm has already said they intend to go after BT and WiFi markets. We'll see.

"stupid Bluetooth"?
pdangel @ 11/24/2002 12:02:01 PM #
"(OK, so it's gorgeous and that stupid Bluetooth, instead of including smart WiFi, appeals to the cellphone-hungry Euros.)"

LOL. Real funny. I think you mean "WiFi (battery sapping) hungry Americans". You made me laugh. Thanx. Mike Cane?

Stupid Bluetooth? Why not say "stupid wifi"?. What's the use of the word "stupid" here? Bluetooth and WiFi are DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES which serve DIFFERENT NEEDS/USES. Why not add both? I use both and i love them both....

If Bluetooth is STUPID then WHY are companies around the world like Microsoft, Nokia, IBM, Intel, Dell, Toshiba, Fujitsu-Siemens, HP/Compaq, Palm, Qualcomm etc. etc. backing this technology???? Because it's stupid???? YEAH RIGHT.

That all the important Operating Systems like Palm, Microsoft, Symbian, Linux and Apple have Bluetooth Stacks is because Bluetooth is stupid?????
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=PALM&read=43149

That Intels upcoming Banias platform includes WiFi-Bluetooth Coexistence Solution is stupid?: Intel Wireless Coexistence System: Silicon Wave has collaborated with Intel to develop a Bluetooth + Wi-Fi wireless coexistence solution for Intel's Banias mobile PC platform. The Intel Wireless Coexistence System is based on Silicon Wave's SiW1701™ and SiW1750™ Bluetooth chipset and enables simultaneous operation of both Bluetooth and Wi-Fi wireless technologies.
http://www.siliconwave.com/coexistence.html#intel
http://www.siliconwave.com/applications.html

That various handheld makers like Intermec, HP/Compaq and next year Dell have or will have both WiFi and Bluetooth built into there PDA's is stupid?????

Palm Tungsten T Bluetooth review
http://www.pencomputing.com/palm/Pen47/tungstent.html

BLUETOOTH ROUNDUP: Palm, Products, Reviews, Compatibility, Setups, Software (56 total) e.g Games, Calendaring/Scheduling solution, SMS, Print Software etc....
http://discussion.brighthand.com/palmhandhelds/showthread.php?s=&threadid=18749



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
adamrichman @ 11/24/2002 9:40:35 PM #
How long have you been reading PIC dude?

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/25/2002 8:45:04 AM #
"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

2 long. And Dude?

"and out of 10 key items, I was correct with 2.5 of them...."

That's great Mike.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:01:14 PM #
>>"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

>>2 long. And Dude?

... waaay too long.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/26/2002 3:24:34 AM #
Informative adding Mike. Wouldn't expect anything different beside your "stupid" quote.



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:47:23 AM #
Wow, I'm really hurt by some nitwit whose profile is set up to link "my homepage" to his own PIC profile.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/27/2002 5:37:10 AM #
1st. You call Bluetooth "stupid"
2nd. ...you follow with adding things like "waaaaay to long" and "am really hurt by some nitwit"

As if i would "hurt" you? What kind of nonsense is that? Am just astound that somebody who supposed to be an expert is using words like this. Tells me who you are.

My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002
by Mike Cane: "The advantage is to use the side slot for data storage and the top slot for a camera, GPS, Bluetooth or even conventional Memory Stick storage."
http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=2754

What's the advantage of using Bluetooth with the slot if Bluetooth is "stupid" Mike?

I also wonder on which grounds a message will be deleted and if calling somebody names is included?



"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:07:43 PM #
Hey, you started being smarmy. Go re-read your drivel. And change your handle, unless the "dangel" is really "dangle."

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/28/2002 8:49:53 AM #
This is called the world upside down....

Who started to call Bluetooth "stupid"?
Who started to call somebody names like "nitwit"?

Did i?

I just replied to you misquoted statements.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:10:36 AM #
Don't mind me. I get cranky.

Can't we all get along?
xtremist5150 @ 12/31/2002 12:35:59 PM #
Woah, woah, guys....first off, the title uses the word PREDICTIONS. That means that there's a fair chance of being wrong, but based on current trends and customer expectations, it's a good way to see how things MIGHT turn out for the year 2003. Think of it as forecasting. Sure, the weatherman might be wrong, but based on patterns in the weather and from what we know about meteorology, he's giving you a BASIC IDEA of what to expect.

And Mike, don't stoop to anyone's level if they berate you...keep up the good work.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
DrDoofus @ 1/4/2003 7:08:06 PM #
In reference to this particular thread, I think the most important thing to remember is:

There are two kinds of people in the world; those who classify people into two groups, and those who do not.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 7/28/2003 8:53:08 AM #
Tell that the script maker of the classic movie "the good the bad and the ugly".

The original quote is (The good=Clint Eastwood to the ugly=Eli Wallach : "There are 2 kind of people my friend, those with loaded guns and those who dig....now you dig"

You dig that?

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

Wow!

hkklife @ 11/22/2002 11:09:08 AM #
*shudder* That's a lot of stuff for me to have to digest during lunchtime. I agree with almost every point entirely, except for Sony dropping memory stick. Why? I was helping a buddy shop for a 36" TV this past weekend. Almost all of the "better" Sony Wega units (XBR, etc) had memory stick ports built into the front panels of their TVs. Since a TV, especially an HDTV model, is a device intended to "last" for a longer period of time (7-10 years at least) than your average piece of PC hardware, I doubt Sony would spend the $ to integrate a MS reader into their TV consoles without having at least some semi-long-term commitment to the format.

Also, I'd like to see Gateway sell a Palm OS device, even if it would be mostly rebadging ala IBM, but I am afraid it's not going to happen either. They are having some decent sales from their shocklingly low-priced plasma HDTVs, and I would not be surpruised to see them slowly transition to a boutique peripheral/electronics retail chain that happens to sell a few stylish PCs over mail-order at the same time. Think how Abercrombie & Fitch or Land's End transitioned from a catalog retailer to a brick and mortar retailer.

Regardless of whatever prophecies come true (or don't), kudos to Mike for an intelligent, insightful, and very well-written prognosis! Also, the part about Palm scooping up the remnants of Handspring should have already happened, so don't be surprised if that's a Jan. 2003 headline here at PIC! The final remaining supplies of Visors should be totally gone after this Christmas season, so the timing is just about right...



RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:18:16 AM #
I think the inclusion of MStick slots in other Sony lines will continue for quite some time -- there are a lot of Sticks still out there. But as for the CLIE...

RE: Wow!
Admin @ 11/22/2002 11:23:16 AM #
I have to disagree about Sony dumping the memstick too. Just look at all of the products that Sony makes that use the memstick: Clie's, digicams, video cams, audio players, TV's, Laptops, PC's etc... That is more than enough to support the format for some time.

Sony could come up with a Popsickle stick format and build it into all of it's products and it would become a quasi-standard.

RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:46:20 AM #
Hmmm... perhaps I should have been more specific in my prediction headline? Perhaps: Sony Drops Memory Stick in CLIEs? Nah. I will leave it as it is, but I guess I should have made it more specific to CLIE. We'll see.

RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 11:57:34 AM #
But why has SONY fallen so far behind SD in memory capacity? Either way, if they abandon MS or not, it is a scandal that SONY has failed so miserably to develop this technology further especially because so many devices depend upon it.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: Wow!
melopsittacus @ 11/22/2002 12:02:57 PM #
1) I don't see Palm SG acquiring Handspring. The economics just don't make sense. Palm SG currently isn't a profitable company. Neither is Handspring. Palm is developing its own wireless solution. If Handspring can manage to maintain its marketshare I would predict, actually, that its brand gets bought up by one of the PPC companies.
2)No way. Certainly not this year.
3)No comment.
4)Not so sure. Yes, perhaps a browser, or a server solution. But it makes more sense that they would attempt to get a cut from independent companies by offering to bundle their products into different "packages." No reason why these bundles couldn't be sold, though.
5)Again, no way. Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field, b)as a way of developing an OS specific to laptops, and c)as a strategic attack against Adobe (hell, Corel is now basically a shell company for MS).
6) Well, if they can even marginally improve on the TT, then yes, I agree.
7 - 8). No. More likely that they go Linux, but most likely that they stick with PPC.
9) I agree that I am excited about Palm Source's potential. But they need a large score with one the phone folks, and this would require offering something the MS and Symbian do not at a cheaper price.
10)No. Bloat. Bloat. Bloat. This is what they will / need to stress. With all of the attention of FAT and unhealthy eating, an ad campaign that associates PPC devices with "LARDASS" practically writes itself. It would also serve to draw attention away from the "feature checklist" that MS has used with devastating success in every one of their platforms to date.
RE: Wow!
rsc1000 @ 11/22/2002 12:09:08 PM #
It is only the geeks here that have a big problem with MS versus SD - Sony isn't sweating any. After all, they sell more MS than all SD vendors combined. Thats the bottom line. They won't even consider dropping MS from CLIE just because PIC users like an open standard.

RE: Wow!
mtg101 @ 11/22/2002 12:20:15 PM #
Sony will drop the MS??? Oh come on they only dropped Betamax this year!!!

---
russ@russb.fsnet.co.uk
RE: Wow!
kevspalm @ 11/22/2002 2:23:33 PM #
Sony still uses MiniDisc. I think the MemStick will be around for a while.

-----------------------------------------
Palm IIIx for 3 years & LOVING IT!
RE: Wow!
jeffreytz @ 11/22/2002 4:22:25 PM #
There are a 100 times more Memory Sticks in use than SD/MMC cards, which are just starting to really catch on now. If CF can survive this long (unbelievably, I bought another 256MB CF card the other day for my Canon digital SLR, they're so cheap!), than the Memory Stick is good for another 5 years.

RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 4:25:28 PM #
I'm not worried about MS surviving or pointless arguments about open source versus proprietary formats--I just wish SONY would support it better by increasing MS capacity.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: Wow!
Sowen @ 11/22/2002 6:22:24 PM #
Why do you say, "Sony Still Uses the Minidisc" as if it were a bad thing. The MiniDisc is a hugely sucessfull recording media in Japan, nearly every young person has one, and I think they are just starting to take off here.

http://members.shaw.ca/Warped_Perception/index.html">http://members.shaw.ca/Warped_Perception/index.html
RE: Wow!
cbulock @ 11/23/2002 12:27:08 AM #
SOny has said they will release 256MB, 512MB, and probably 1GB Memory Sticks this year. So the capacity will catch up to SD. There is no way they will drop MS. They have a great system going.

Take a picture with a Sony camera, view it on the Clie.
Catch a movie on your Sony video camera, watch it on your Clie.
Take pictures or movies with your Clie and pop the MS in any Sony laptop and view them.

I think the way Sony has integrated MS into there products wil improve even more in 2003 and certainly we won't see the end of the MS. Maybe they will do a SD/MMC and MS on a Clie, but that might still be unlikely.

RE: Wow!
dsm363 @ 11/23/2002 1:32:13 AM #
I would have to disagree with "Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field" The tablet PC is something physicians would definitely not use. They need something simple that fits in the palm of their hand or pocket, not a $2000 tablet that they have to lug around. There might be other uses in medicine but in few cases I think.


RE: Wow!
SuperUser @ 11/23/2002 5:10:06 PM #
Mike,
are you trying to be interesting or are these really educated guesses ?
Sony drop memory stick in 2003 ? Sony kills microsoft Tablet PC ? ...
If you are not a psychic, there is no way I will believe these. Well, even if you are a psychic ...
RE: Wow!
elo @ 11/24/2002 10:26:06 AM #
MiniDisc has no peer as a recording format. It is intended as a replacement for cassettes and there is absolutely no good reason why anyone should still buy something that plays cassettes. MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

elo

RE: Wow!
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 11:16:06 AM #
> MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

It doesn't need to, it's fine where it is. I have yet to see an alternative that matches MD in terms of pocketability, versatility and media price.

RE: Wow!
Nate @ 11/25/2002 4:47:44 PM #
1) As long as Sony makes digital cameras, the memory stick will continue to be their format.

2) The minidisc will be (has been) killed, at least in the United States, by HD-MP3 players.

RE: MemortStick (Duo) and Minidisc (was: Wow!)
goofrider @ 11/27/2002 3:20:26 AM #
MemoryStick is inferior to SD by all means (SD has better I/O capability and much faster transfer speed). But Sony will continue to support it even if no-one else is using it. Sony has the means to go at it alone.

Sony is introducing the smaller MemoryStick Duo this year, it'll be debuting in the Sony Eircsson P800 smartphone. This is further evidence that MS is not going away any time soon.

Minidisc is hugely popular in Japan, many parts of Asia and Europe. Just the Japanese market alone can sustain Minidisc for another 10 years.

While the U.S. audience has been rather negative about Minidisc, the US Minidisc market is still growing steadily and remains profitable. Even places like Target has been carrying Minidisc recorders and media for well over 3 years.

RE: Wow!
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:58:02 PM #
Not everyone have a computer or PDA (SHOCK!), so HD-MP3 isn't really going to kill MD just yet. Heck, it is getting more and more shelf space in our local electronic stores... (From nothing to a very visible little shelf in the audio department, it's pretty good.)

RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:09:02 PM #
Heck, even I wouldn't pronounce MiniDisc dead.

RE: Wow!
JonathanChoo @ 11/27/2002 8:11:25 PM #
Minidisc is hughly popular in both Europe AND Asia. This is because of the size of portable player and the fact that you can now record up to 240 minutes on a single Minidisc which usually costs as cheap as £1 per blank for a good brand.

Current PDAs: Palm Tungsten T, Toshiba e310

Past PDAs: Palm V, Palm m505, Palm m515, Sony Clie N770C/U, Sony Clie T625C, Sony Clie NR70V

RE: Wow!
RedJess @ 1/2/2003 10:18:44 AM #
The only thing that so far rivals the minidisc is the iPod in regards to portablility- the majority to all of your music collect in one format on one device. Except that the lowest price for an ipod is about 300 dollars, where a good minidisc player can be bought for $150. Until stuff like the iPod is cheaper and more common, the minidisc won't die out.

RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:40:23 PM #
You guys reason like the US makes up the entire world. Minidiscs is the recording media of choice in Japan and Asia. And you are right: MS outsells the SD by a hundred times over. While you guys are just raving on and on and on about using SDs on your Palms, Cams, etc, there are people using MS on videocams, televisions, laptops, Clies, cameras, MP3 players, hi-fis and just about every other gadget you can think of. Maybe it's time to step out of that well.

RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:49:51 PM #
I forget, but didn't I read somewhere Symbian trumps PPC and even Palm in sales volume in Europe?

Interesting predictions

Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 11:07:52 AM #
Very interesting. I did a little better than Mike with my predictions for 2002. Read:

http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=4dfaa6267dcf2f3fb810bc48863b3d62&threadid=30223&highlight=PDA+predictions

My crystal ball says:

1. 2003 will be the year that the PPC sector implodes. Consumers continue to shun PPC, despite the new low price. Dell's Pocket PC will be a total flop, but it does succeed in driving other PPC vendors out of the maket...especially Toshiba. As well as smaller players like NEC, Asus and so on. By 2004 only Dell and HP will be left standing, and Microsoft's slice of the handheld OS market will shrink back below 20% again...this time for good.

2. I agree that Palm SG will unveil a really kick ass device with virtual graffiti and other high-end features. Palm will surprise us all with new products that, for the first time ever, aren't boring.

3. Sony continues to mop the floor with PPC, as I predicted before. By next spring the company will unveil a replacement for the T-series that really impresses. Also Sony will introduce its first built-in wireless device that sets the PDA market ON FIRE, and begins drawing waves of PPC users.

4. Handspring ceases to exist as an independent entity. By Q3, they are acquired by a wireless company. Kyocera perhaps.

5. OS6 based hardware hits the market by Q3, in time for the lucrative "Back to School" buying season.

6. OS6 turns out to be the most impressive mobile OS on the market, even making Symbian's OS look like left-over thanksgiving turkey (sorry, had to throw in a holiday theme).

7. Microsoft's Smartphone is a dud.

8. Tungsten and Zire turn out to be very successful products, despite the naysayers.

9. Mike stops making predictions. ;-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:38:29 AM #
Foo, you dog! I should have printed your predictions last year when I first saw them. I can't tell if they were "updated" since then. Heh-heh. You hit some things right on the head -- but you were also picking on PPC too.

RE: Interesting predictions
Gekko @ 11/22/2002 11:44:04 AM #
>"Dell's Pocket PC will be a total flop"

Mark this prediction down. I'm sure it will come back to haunt him.

RE: Interesting predictions
ska @ 11/22/2002 11:45:16 AM #
1. Sony and SG will have roughly equal share controling about 20-25% market each. Total Global POS will go near 50-55% mark by Q2.

2. Handspring will cease as independent company or become a small niche outfit like Handera, providing consulting service to phone makers.

3. Tungstan W fails. TT gets 3-5% of the market. The bulk of Palm SG sales are still 4.1, specially the sub $150 units.

4. M555 delayed, trying to fix m550 too much, becomes unstable. Ended up with 'just do it' release, another minor upgrade to m550 but 175mhz, 32MB, same everything else.

5. OS 6.0 will not be ready before Q3, leaving OS5.0 as high end OS of Palm SG pretty much the whole year, leading to complete erosion on their high end market. Sony will have them for lunch on $400 plus market.

6.MS smartphones is only a negligable player. It cannot compete yet against Nokia and friends. 2004 will be the year instead.

7.Dell plus one or two unknown Taiwanese OEM will rule the $300 market. HP tattering along with miniscule share in this market. Toshiba is out from there. Sony kills Palm inthis category, TT will be $250 by Q3.

8. grafitti will stay put in 2003 in all Palm SG models. Sony improved the VG with various tweak, releasing standard T form with Xscale.

9. integrated WiFi will have VoiP as killer app. Low quality video cam-chat will start to catch on. Sony will include complete wireless software with their NX, and at least one PPC model will have integrated camera model.

10. all above $400 PDA will have some sort of built in wireless, specially WiFi.

RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 11:47:56 AM #
MikeCane: "I should have printed your predictions last year when I first saw them. I can't tell if they were "updated" since then.

"Updated"? Shame on you Mike, I never cheat! :-)

Just look at the "last updated" date at the bottom of that article. I only updated a few minutes after I posted to correct all the spelling errors, and to add that last bit about cell phones. That's all. Haven't touched it since.

Mikecane "You hit some things right on the head -- but you were also picking on PPC too."

Yeah, I just love twisting the knife. But I was right. Sony really clobbered the PPC makers (Sony is now in the number two spot) and Casio did leave the PPC market.


"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 12:05:43 PM #
Gekko: "Mark this prediction down. I'm sure it will come back to haunt him."

Don't worry. If I'm wrong, there are several hundred people who will be more than happy to laugh in my face.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 12:23:57 PM #
I should also add to my predictions that I believe Sony will beat Palm to market with the first "cheap" color PalmOS device. We'll see a $150 color Clie within 60-90 days.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs
RE: Interesting predictions
bobes @ 11/22/2002 1:08:20 PM #
do you mean new product or the to-be markdowned SJ30?
RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 1:21:13 PM #
> "do you mean new product or the to-be markdowned SJ30?"

Either case is possible. They may slash the SJ30 to fill that space, or they might design a new line to better control costs.


"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Interesting predictions
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 1:58:17 PM #
Palm has already reduced the price of the m130 to $199 after rebate, and the CLIE T615C's have been seen lately under the $200 mark (a real bargain, IMO). Even the Palm IIIc is available from sellers on PriceWatch starting at $126, and still is a nice device. If I was new to Palm OS, I'd consider the bundle at compgeeks.com: IIIc, keyboard, case, chargers, extra cradle, and modem for $185.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com
RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:20:22 PM #
Even a $199 CLIE T615 is not attractive to me. Why? That ^%$#@ girlie stylus! What was Sony thinking, putting that too-short/too-thin toothpick in their devices?! They MUST get rid of that.

But... they still haven't fixed the spacing of their English-language fonts, either...

RE: Interesting predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 3:51:09 PM #
The Clie T615 doesn't count. It is discontinued. I'm talking about a PERMANENT placement at the $150 price point.

I agree, Mike. The stylus is horrible. It must have been designed for a toddler's hands. Tungsten has a wonderful stylus. Chromed metal..nice and thick. A manly stylus! :-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 4:23:01 PM #
My hand has had the orgasmic pleasure of fondling the TT stylus. Now THAT is a stylus!

RE: Interesting predictions
TobyG @ 11/22/2002 4:36:52 PM #
"It must have been designed for a toddler's hands."

You don't have kids, do you Foo? Toddlers don't have the full dexterity of adult hands yet, so a smaller stylus would actually be harder for them to use. Kindergarteners maybe. ;)

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown

RE: Interesting predictions
abosco @ 11/22/2002 10:46:59 PM #
"My hand has had the orgasmic pleasure of fondling the TT stylus. Now THAT is a stylus!"

Mike, you watch too much porn! ;-)

Great job on the predictions. This year's going to be a better year for you, guaranteed. The only one you're dead wrong in is the Memory Stick. Sony encourages buying only Sony products and the more proprietary standards they make between their own models, the better. Remember the chart they laid out? They had the 256, 512, and 1 GB MS's out by January '03, as well as the first Duos making their appearance. The thing that bothers me is that the Duos are the size of SD's, yet they can barely fit 16 MB into it so far. SD's are up to 512 MB now, and the MS's are more than double the size of it and theyre four times smaller in space!

I don't know, only time will tell.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

RE: Interesting predictions
cbulock @ 11/23/2002 12:56:19 AM #
Mike, your predictions seem so-so. And Foo, you seem to have some good predictions. But I have to say, Ska, as much as I ususally don't agree with your point of view, you seemed to have a really good prediction of 2003. If I had to make predictions, it would look much like yours.

RE: Interesting predictions
abosco @ 11/23/2002 1:19:11 PM #
The part that is so incredibly wrong is that he says that the TT will be $250 by Q3. The m515 is $299 with a $50 rebate right now, and it has been out for almost a year. By Q3, the TT will be just about as old as the m515 is today. The m515 has only dropped $100 in price with the rebate and it started at $399. The TT started at $499. Would it make sense for them to cut the price in half ($250) when the m515 has barely been marked down $100? I don't think so.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.
RE: Interesting predictions
DeNiro @ 11/25/2002 12:04:56 AM #
Somebody give that Jimn367 guy a medal... he was totaly wrong.

He's in this thread btw:
http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=4dfaa6267dcf2f3fb810bc48863b3d62&threadid=30223&highlight=PDA+predictions

RE: Interesting predictions
reza666 @ 11/26/2002 7:11:03 AM #
Maybee this hasn't anything to do with the thread but i think atleast the multitasking and also a better file system should be the first thing Palm fixes in the new OS or maybee even hardware (not sure if there is a limit in the hardware ??? does anyone know?).

I mean atleast something like MS explorer. I owned a IPAQ before but i sold it after 2 month since the battery time was REALY bad. Now i have a TT and i'm both pleased and dissapointed, mainly beacouse of the 2 issues above and also no mp3 program.
And also some very basic functions are missing. For example if i want to save a contact "Mr X" then palm save this as "X,Mr" that is "Lastname,FirstName" . You should be able to choose something as basic as this. but like i said thera are ALOT of things like that which i think works much better in IPAQ but then again the battery time and weight factor convinced me to buy PALM TT.
finally i must say it is a awsome product :) Just hope i can upgrade to OS 6. I hate it when companies release new hardware with new software. We poor people can't efford to change Hardware every 5-month damed ;)

RE: Interesting predictions
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:49:17 AM #
>>Maybee this hasn't anything to do with the thread but i think atleast the multitasking and also a better file system should be the first thing Palm fixes in the new OS

-- obviously, you did not read all of the links or even investigate them. Do so.

My predictions...
moko @ 12/2/2002 10:44:21 AM #
My predictions for 2003...
Mike Cane realises he is not Nostradamus and that staring into too many teacups will make him go blind.

RE: Interesting predictions
quengho @ 1/8/2003 11:28:15 AM #
(this is Argent from Brighthand... the stupid PIC account creation scheme kept refusing to send me mail, so the handle "argent" is owned by a zombie)

1. Windows powered handhelds will continue to do about 15%-20% of handheld retail sales, just as they have for as long as they've been on the market.

2. I hope you and Mike are right on this one... SOMEONE needs to produce a "Color Handera".

3. I don't know about "mopping the floor". Sony (and Handspring, before they self-destructed) each managed to match the PPC in market share, and I expect Sony to keep doing that, while Palm retains the largest market share.

4. Christmas 2001 I predicted that Handspring would be eaten by the cellphone companies, so I have no argument there.

5. If OS6 comes out this year, it'll either be effectively Beta quality or it'll be too close to OS5 in capability to do what I think it needs to do. I would much rather they made sure it was right than try and meet an unrealistic deadline... and I don't think they *need* OS6, if they can improve the network support in OS5 just a little.

6. You have a much more exciting vision of OS6 than I do. :)

7. Especially if the lawsuit (see The Register) gets nasty.

8. Agreed.

9. What are you smoking?

Why?

ganoe @ 11/22/2002 11:31:12 AM #
Why make an article out of the predictions of someone who apparently can't count to 11, and is accurate less than 30% of the time? Oh, and of those 11 predictions, only one (Sony dual-slot PDA) of the three he actually got right was something new.


RE: Why?
SonofWan @ 11/22/2002 12:35:28 PM #
This seems to be the only correct statement on the page.

RE: Why?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:02:30 PM #
I've waited to reply to this, to let them stew.

Even though I've called 11 a prediction, it is a *negative* -- something that I forsee NOT being done. I also said 10 "key" items. Now, if you want to count 11, then I had 3.5 correct.

But then, if I had just done a list of 10 things that would NOT happen (ie, "Apple will NOT license PalmOS"), then I would have had more correct.

I'd like to make predictions...

bcombee @ 11/22/2002 11:50:19 AM #
I'd like to be able to post a "ten prediction" list, but I'm in the odd position of knowing too much under non-disclosure agreements to actually make one without fear of releasing confidential information. Oddly, I probably don't know enough under NDA to be able to have a high accuracy rate, though.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com
RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:58:11 AM #
Ah, but you see, I don't have *any* inside knowledge from any company. If I did, I wouldn't write a predictions list. That'd be cheating. And violating all sorts of NDAs.

RE: I'd like to make predictions...
George4 @ 11/23/2002 11:00:00 AM #
Actually, in-the-know info is only a distraction from actual
market changes and oppurtunity. What we (geeks) all see is that
the handheld market could be what has become of the home computer market.
And one day it will. But first we will need:
1. A single standard of electronic text for Education AND business (though they needn't be the same)

2. To get rid of styluses ALTOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!!
I can't emphasize this enough. Do you have your own pen? is it a skinny BIC?
I bet you have an ergonmic writing tool like everyone else. PDA tips built into pens will eventually
be standard on pens. (go check wal-mart right now)If your like the average PDA user, when you need to input,
who cares what blunt object you use? Once the pda/pens are all around, you won't even remember needing one.
(are you designers listening???)bottom line, all styluses are uncomfortable and stupid. You're neigbors' arthritic mother wouldn't consider compsoing
e-mail with one. And that is your market.
3. As far as second-guessing SONY, You are kidding right? I happen to love my 128MS's. They will probably come out with the larger ones when we have bought all the mass produced existing ones.
Unlike all these other tech companies, Sony does nothing without first securing a profit, evne if they must under-produce to avoid overruns. Try studying SONY and your predictions will be more likley
4. oh, getting back to what it takes to make PDA's commonplace: see #1 and suggest federal subsidation of institutions willing to convert all text in the public domain into Palm or E-book format. Now that's a
platform i'd vote for.

G4


RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:37:48 PM #
>>2. To get rid of styluses ALTOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!!

-- over my dead body will you take away my stylus!!

You think voice commands will work on a busy NYC street (horns honking, boom boxes blazing, sirens wailing, me cursing at the damned tourists to walk faster or to go stroll in the street!)? You think I *want* people to overhear what I'm telling my PDA?

You have gone overboard. This is like a typewriter fanatic saying we must get rid of pencils and pens altogether.

RE: I'd like to make predictions...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 4:57:36 PM #
>>Try studying SONY

-- oh, and I have. Have you read the books out there? How do you think I know the name of Ibuka when most people have only heard of Morita?

RE: I'd like to make predictions...
SPCagigas @ 12/6/2002 1:52:16 PM #
Umm...
I think you missed the point of the "get rid of styluses(sic)" comment entirely. No one mentioned voice activated organizers at all. The point is that, given the small size of a Palm organizer, there isn't much room to make a nice, well balanced, ergonimically sound stylus.

Right now, no one bundles a really good stylus with an organizer -- the last one I had that I really LIKED was on my old Newt120. I don't expect to see that type of stylus returning. Instead, I expect to see the cost of pen/stylus combos to continue to drop, and PDA developers to eventually drop the whole stylus/silo/storage area as non-value-added to their business.

Steve

WiFi? -- WhyFi!

Fly-By-Night @ 11/22/2002 11:46:06 AM #
I'm sorry, but would all you Yanks get over WiFi for handhelds. Just because QualComm won't let you have cool mobiles you get all funny over Bluetooth. WiFi is fine for setting up a network in the office, or ad hoc networks in other buildings with laptops, but is totally useless for PDAs. For a start, WiFi uses too much power. All these new CPUs and hi res colour screens are draining batteries enough without adding the burden of WiFi.

I'm well aware of the "BT and WiFi are complementary etc." arguments; but for PDAs BT is so much more flexible. It can be used to set up piconets between BT devices (inc. routers, laptops, etc.), which can be 'daisy chained' together to get over the 30-100m limit. How big is the average Starbucks anyway? Wirelessly linking to a WAN (GPRS/EDGE/3G, whatever) means you don't have to be in an urban area to get wireless data. The addition of auto syncing and headset profiles just make the BT for PDAs argument more compelling.

So. In my opinion, you are very wrong about WiFi being added to PDAs at the expense of Bluetooth. Over the coming year we will see more aqnd more PDAs with Bluetooth; and you'll just have to kick Qualcomm in the ass.

FBN

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 12:01:31 PM #
WiFi is the thing here in the States. Did you read the linked article? Go into any store here, and you can pick up a WiFi box to broadcast your DSL/Cable modem signal (oops, two more things not popular across the pond...) -- I've yet to see any BT boxes in retail stores.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/22/2002 12:18:39 PM #
WiFi is quite big here too. But we recognise that it's not ideal for small mobile devices. Nearly all new mobile phones (that is, *all* new mobile phones except for Motorola!) have GPRS and Bluetooth. It is a combination that just makes more sense than PDA/WiFi.

You can also get BT 'boxes' as you put it. Check out www.expansys.com or www.blueunplugged.com. They're a bit pricey at the moment, but prices should drop significantly in a couple of months.

As for the DSL, yeah it's a bitch here. It's probably more widespread than you think; but we have our own Qualcomm here -- BT (that's British Telecom, not Bluetooth) who seem unwilling (for monopoly purposes) to let other companies offer DSL easily. Still, prices are coming down quite a bit now, so hopefully there will be more take up.

WiFi just has no place in a small, go anywhere, handheld device.

FBN

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 12:39:17 PM #
I think FBN has a good point. It seems that Palm (hardware) is focusing on BT. If they switched to WiFi, they would loose their battery capacity advantage over SONY. But I would definitely like to see Palm adopt bigger screens with virtual graffiti.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mattgrab @ 11/22/2002 12:42:50 PM #
I am a user in the States. Palm SG is doing the right thing by going bluetooth. the new ipaq has both 802.11 and bluetooth. Being a member here, I'm obviously not your average user. But, I think some of my use could fit the typical average user model. I have wi-fi at work, and at home. If I had wi-fi in my palm, would I use it? Maybe only to do hot-syncs. Why? If I'm at home or in the office, I use a PC to browse the web. If I'm in a meeting, I don't typically need to refer to the web. I refer to my notes, which are stored locally. If I am away from my office, and I need net access, it is to check my email, or log in to an office pc for repairs (this is not typical). I can do this with my Handspring Visor with a Red-M Bluetooth card, and my Ericsson T68m Bluetooth phone. I also wear a jabra bluetooth headset. While technically speaking, I would call bluetooth vs. wi-fi roughly the same, there are other differences.
I think it comes down to distribution.
Consumer products cycle very quickly. TI could introduce an 802.11b headset that is very low power.
But how long does it take to create a national wireless infrastructure? 3G in the US has a tremendous head start in providing largely complete geographic coverage. If somebody wanted to do Wi-fi and have anywhere near the coverage, I would say they are looking at 2-3 years. the top 3-5 us wireless carriers are going to have largely complete geographic 3G coverage in the next 12 months. Phones cycle very quickly. Many phones already have bluetooth. So in 12 months, if someone has a cellphone, they can have 3G service for their phone, pda, and laptop anywhere in the US. While somebody with an 802.11 pda and laptop are still waiting for coverage in the US. Qualcomm is working on bluetooth chipsets, and is even selling some. All of the top 3-5 are going to have complete coverage, and complete a complete bluetooth product line in the next 12 months - guaranteed. In addition, how long have network print servers and 802.11 wireless print servers been around? They have a pretty good track record. HP is selling bluetooth printers. Bluetooth will go into all devices. Don't forget about the times you have to hook up a friends computer for them, simply because they don't know where all those blasted cords go. Bluetooth's goal (and they are getting there) is to replace all those cords.
802.11 has better range, and so is better in the office, and at home. But once you leave the office, cell phones + bluetooth have the range people need. Bluetooth is also introducing a high-power mode, where the range is increased (for inside the office).
Bluetooth can look up your phone # in your PDA, and dial your phone, and transfer the call to your headset - TODAY.
Bluetooth may have started later than 802.11, but it is in the lead, and I think it will hit critical mass quicker than a nationwide 802.11 network.

Matt

ps - Sony will still provide memstick for clie's - but they may add SD in addition. There are just too many other memsticks to not keep it in their pda's.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 2:05:46 PM #
Actually, the device I'd love to see would be a WiFi/BT crossover access point. It would basically be a small box that had a WiFi transceiver on it that you could carry with you. It would be able to roam to local WiFi networks and would also present a BT Internet access profile for local BT devices. It would host a mini-web server that you could connect to from a paired BT device that would let you see what 802.11b networks were avaialble and handle details like WEP keys.

Oh, it would be either battery powered or recharagable :)

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com

There we go again...
Stefanos @ 11/22/2002 2:17:10 PM #
I can't believe there are people who "complain" about a PDA having integrated bluetooth. Especially Palminfocenter contributors.

Why is it so hard for people in the US to understand that bluetooth is immensely useful in countries with widespread (and cheap) wireless internet access through GSM/GPRS networks? Is there anyone who would say no to always- on wireless access through a PDA or laptop no matter where they are? With bluetooth and a GPRS phone you don't have to be in your office to access the net. You can do it while relaxing on a beach somewhere in the Aegean, or you can check your email just before boarding a plane at Heathrow.

If Wi-Fi was as widespread (i.e. would allow wireless internet access throughout a whole country or continent) and cheap it would be equally good. As it stands, it only exists in corporate LANs, and that's useful too (though not for everyone).

In Greece you can get GPRS internet access for as low as $12-$15 a month, and that is with NO LIMIT on usage (this is the best deal I know, there are a range of others). For months, I struggled with the IR port on the m505 to connect to my Ericsson T39 GPRS phone. The bluetooth SD card has changed EVERYTHING. Now the Tungsten T has taken it to a different level, allowing you to keep your SD memory card in the slot while connecting to the net.

Are people aware that GSM/GPRS is available in the US? T-Mobile and AT&T provide services, though I haven't checked prices. Unfortunately, 2G and 2.5G networks were slow to pick up in the US, and that may explain why a lot of people don't understand the beauty of connecting a cellphone to a PDA or laptop.

There should be NO debate on whether or not to add BT or Wi-Fi to a PDA. We would like to have both, so that we can have wireless internet nationwide or in the office, but until that happens, I want bluetooth first. It is available NOW and it lets me surf the net CHEAPLY anywhere I want.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
shaggypaul @ 11/22/2002 2:31:02 PM #
Whew! thanks for that. Saved me from writing the same thing. BTW, getting to the point where I'm just going to sew my mobile phone in my jacket because it never leaves my pocket. I can find a name, dial and transfer to my BT headset from my TT faster than unlocking the keys on the phone. And don't even get me started on GPRS. When the data rates get cheaper, I'll probably just work from my sailboat. (once I get one, of course) 802.11? Do whatever you want, but don't take away my BT! :) I don't go to Starbucks.
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/22/2002 3:06:53 PM #
I'm in North America and I have to say that the tide is turning towards Bluetooth for mobile use. Within the last few months I've noticed cell stores for the first time selling BT headsets and actually selling out of them. I have both WiFi and BT networks, but BT makes SOOOO much more sense for the PDA. I mean, you are most likely to use your PDA away from your office, that's why it's small. If you're at your office then why wouldn't you use your computer or the laptop to surf the net, it's way better. When you're out and about, BT allows you to turn your PDA into a connected unit. This post is made over WiFi, but with my laptop!

Don't talk to me about Starbucks, even if I frequented it do I want to use my PDA only when I'm there? I think people against BT are people who never tried it, but have already invested into WiFi. I was there too, but didn't think twice about adding BT to my arsenal. Now that Palm and HP started adding it to their devices you will just see more BT in PDAs, since the initial integration costs have now been surpassed. This is one prediction you can count on in 2003.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:22:06 PM #
Tattoo this on your foreheads: I don't want a cellphone! Not everyone does, you know. Just give me an 802.11b-equipped PDA (preferably from Palm with that 320x480 screen -- Palm won't screw up the stylus!) and I'll be happy. (Well, OK. Happy is too strong a word. I'll feel better. How's that?)

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/22/2002 4:14:21 PM #
Unfortunately (or fortunately), the PDA manufacturers do not model their product development specifically on you. :)

I agree that there are people that don't need BT, but compare the number of people that do want BT to the number of people that want WiFi and you'll see my point.

I have WiFi but I have zero desire to hook up my PDA to it, my laptop is way better for it. Now, even if the end user has a WiFi network at home most of them would rather use the computer to surf the net (after the novelty of surfing with the PDA wears off).

BT on the PDA actually solves a very important and FINANCIALLY LUCRATIVE problem: connectivity on the go. Do you think people spending hundreds of dollars on Blackberry don't have cell phones? For me, BT on my PDA directly saved me money (and heaps of it), I was able to ditch the crappy B&W Blackberry for a cheaper and BETTER solution. If you think BT is a Europe-only fad then the next year will prove you wrong (consider that my prediction).

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
digilaw @ 11/22/2002 5:01:39 PM #
Mike, I think you'll find that your anti-celphone opinions are the minority. I could be wrong but the majority of palm enthusiats, like myself, seem to have a cel phone and love it. That is just here in the US. In the rest of the world, I think its a given that non-celphone/smartphone users with a middle to high end PDA device are in the small minority.
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
masitti @ 11/22/2002 5:55:00 PM #
Wow, great common sense thinking here people... I mean seriously, I thought that my PDA and phone would need 300 feet to communicate!

------------------------
Mario Masitti
O/T Mod
I Love Tennis :)
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
drivola80 @ 11/22/2002 6:28:50 PM #
Mike, I really enjoyed your predictions but why are you so anti-BT and anti-mobile phone ?

I personally believe that the Bluetooth and the WiFI are not in competition. I really like the 11MBit WiFI connection that my university provide but in the same time I the fact that you can travel around all the europe with a full GPRS connection. It works and it's everywhere. Why it's so wrong ? I understand that the mobile phone situation in the USA maybe is more confusing and that's pushing the in WiFI in every corner but for me it's strange that a tech-savy people like a PIC user at the end of 2002 don't like a mobile phone.
Maybe all the european like me are "cellphone-hungry" like you said ;-) But this has a simply explanation: it's since 1993 that GSM is here and after 9 year the network is nearly perfect, even in mine country where the geographical situation is not very nice for wireless, read 3500 meters mountains...

WiFI, Bluetooth, GSM, GPRS are all very nice technologies and I can't really understand why the WiFI, that's perfect for your needs, is so smart and the BT is so stupid. I will never say that WiFI is stupid... Period.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
jho4thclie @ 11/22/2002 6:41:52 PM #
Ben--- You took my idea!!!!!

Check out our Bluetooth forum here--- I want one that I can toss in my backpack so I can use my T|T to check my eMail, etc. on my campus's WiFi.

-JWH

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
TinMan @ 11/22/2002 7:30:26 PM #
Totally agree on the BT issue--and I don't even have a BT mobile phone yet. WiFi hotspots are simply too sparse to be considered reliable (for needed Net Access). I was doing WiFi on an iPAQ over two years ago. It was cool, but after the novelty wore off my usage dropped to near zero--aside from syncing. I realized that most any time I was in WiFi range, it was far better to just use a PC/laptop.

WiFi is neat for laptops and Tablet PCs, but I can't see browsing with a PDA when a PC is nearby. IMHO.

I sync, therefore I am.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
useybird @ 11/23/2002 1:24:21 AM #
at this point bluetooth is so pricey, that it is impractical to buy it. there are actually BT units that you can plug in to the headset jack on your telephone that have a 12-inch cord. That is sad. My local Best Buy hasn't sold one since it has been available (3 weeks), mostly due to the fact that it is a major ripoff at $170. What is the point of this? A corded $10 headset isn't good enough? The only time i would see practicality with a BT headset is if you were a giraffe!

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
rw747 @ 11/23/2002 7:17:59 AM #
BT seems totally misunderstood in the USA. It is a low power (read low current=longer battery life) local network of up to 30ft.
I am in HongKong right now using a T with BT onto GPRS and also a BT headset (OK so not ALL the time). Works absolutely fine and in due course the T will also talk to my BT headset and my PC (also talking to my BT headset or should I say I am talking........well you get my drift).
The GPRS mobile handset will work in most countries including the USA and I hope that GPRS will also be available there as well as digital phoning.
I need no hotspots, can sit on the train here browsing the net etc just fine, moves with me on the car anywhere and most times has no problems.
I am looking forward to getting more BT devices and no doubt keyboards, mice et al will join the throng.
WiFi is available in Europe in much the same way as the USA. The stores have the routers, there are standalone units to plug into the network or whatever.

Can someone point me to a WiFi headset?

RE: BT Headset expensive
Zuber @ 11/23/2002 12:03:20 PM #
RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
iebnn @ 11/23/2002 12:30:24 PM #
ultra long-range wifi is being developed for city areas or something like that
a few miles radius or something, I dunno

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:41:10 PM #
Did any of you even bother to read the linked article about WiFi spots?! Hello, some of us -- like me! -- have access to free WiFi. Why would I want a damned cellphone for $ when I can have WiFi access for free?!

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
gfunkmagic @ 11/24/2002 2:00:45 AM #
Here is an article on infosync epounding the reasons why bluetoth will succeed!!

http://www.infosync.no/show.php?id=2248

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
sr @ 11/25/2002 3:44:23 AM #
Jeez Mike, do you think all of us live in NYC or SF??? People complain that GPRS coverage is spotty, I wonder what they'd say talking to you about the "free" WiFi coverage. Personally, I'd take the GPRS coverage over the WiFi coverage any day of the week.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:05:16 PM #
GPRS? Have at it. I have no use for it.

All these BT fanatics! Geez, I never said there should NEVER be ANY BT (though the amount of time it's taken to get out there, you had to wonder if it ever *was* going to come out...) -- I just want Equal Time for WiFi!

When the WiFied TT comes out, all of you can go bellyache about that.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:23:08 AM #
Mike, how can you not use a mobile? I can't even remember the last time I used a landline phone. Having a mobile is just so convenient. I couldn't imagine being without one

Ben. Here's a link for a BT to WiFi gateway. A bit pricey at the moment, but I suspect (hope) that's because it's new.

http://www.expansys.com/product.asp?code=PX20

FBN


RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:42:08 PM #
This is all very surprising. I had expected adherents of competitor PDA platforms to come and argue. Instead, I find out the world has been taken over by -- very vocal!! -- BT-enabled cellphone addicts!

I don't know what to make of that... (and, yes, I realize my anti-cellphone stance is in the wee majority. So be it.)

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Fly-By-Night @ 11/27/2002 5:04:41 AM #
The world HAS been taken over by BT enabled mobile phone addicts!

FBN

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:10:36 PM #
Just how many BT-enabled cellphones are available in the US? AFAIK, just the T68. Any others?

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Maniac @ 11/28/2002 4:05:05 PM #
Just something to add to that WiFi with a few miles radius coverage claim...

Have you ever heard of CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY? If a cell is a few miles wide in a populated area, 802.11b type technology will be so bogged down that it will be USELESS. Imagine how many people would be latching on to it in a densely populated area? And when they all transmit/receive data, be bandwidth will be sucked dry so quick that you'd be better off running POTS. Even 802.11a wouldn't be able to handle it. This is one reason cell technology is invented, to better reuse the limited spectrum of frequencies. Lower the power and you will limit the amount of people you need to serve per point, and easing up on the bandwidth useage per station.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Marshall Flinkman @ 1/3/2003 11:34:32 AM #
> Just how many BT-enabled cellphones are available in the US? AFAIK, just the T68. Any others?

Definitely the Nokia 6310i--available, like the T68i, from AT&T, but it should be unlocked, and thus compatible with Cingular or T-Mobile. None from Verizon or Sprint (the major CDMA providers) yet AFAIK, or from Nextel, who has its own system that (I think) is transitioning to CDMA.

IMO, CNet, InfoSync or some site out there should maintain a list of all the BT-equipped cell phones out there and what carriers offer them.

RE: WiFi? -- WhyFi!
Sleuth255 @ 1/8/2003 8:33:35 AM #
I use a TT and a T68 with T-Mobile. Thanks to bluetooth, the world has changed. Here are my (real world) reasons why:

Looking for houses just driving through prospective neighborhoods, I put the pin number on a Shorewest sign into their website on my TT's browser and brought up the specs. My wife looked at me in amazement when I said "it's got a pool in the back yard honey, but they want 275,000 for it!"

Driving back from Madison WI, my TT's datebook alarm went off: only 5 minutes left until my eBay item auction ended. On my TT, I logged in and placed the winning bid. I now have a 128 meg Panasonic SD card thanks to bluetooth.

At Comdex Fall, I used the PicoBlue access points at the palm pavilion to get email and surf the web to verify the (sometimes incredible) claims of the various salespersons there. Access speed was T1 (760KB/s or so) and I was linking to the access points over 200 feet away. There was no additional battery drain on my TT when I set the backlight off (didn't need it with the bright lighting on the show floor). My wife sent me an email "Check the website for new pics of your little girl". I brought up the (Fotki based) site on WebPro.

The most I heard at the WiFi access points was "I was trying to pull emails, but my batteries died"...

Like I said Mike, the world is changing....

Consider:

Type II (100 meter range, 50 meter realistic) bluetooth USB dongle costs about $60. On the forums posted here, are the instructions for making it work with windows networking on your PC. Got broadband at home? Start surfing with your bluetooth enabled TT too. T-Mobile data service costs $11/mo for 10 megs. I use the heck out of my service and I do about 7-10 megs per month thanks to Palm's proxy based browser.

The world is changing folks. Do you know what I want?

I want my phone to do WiFi. That way it becomes my network access point and my PDA isn't subject to WiFi based battery drain.

one more failed prediction

amike @ 11/22/2002 12:22:24 PM #
Where is this 5Go hard-disk equipped clié, like the Ipod, for Mp3 or divx ? For these purposes, battery-consumption is low...

Symbian OS ...

pistache @ 11/22/2002 12:55:26 PM #
Hi Mike,

Your predictions are cool, perhaps a little too palm biased, but I'm not sure you really know the symbian OS.
I've developped on winCE,Palm and symbian ... and this one is a great one, really modern and neat OS ... that looks really like the perfect OS6 you described ;-).
Do not forget the sale force of nokia and ercisson : Nokia already sold more symbian smarphone than palm + handspring (at leat in europe, 'm not sure of the world wide number ... so I prefer to close my mouth ...).
So count on symbian ...
You elude too quickly the PPC camp : there are many constructors and price are really attracting for such great devices (difficult to admit for such a palm fan like me) ... so I don't see the big flop you announce there ...

Thomas


RE: Symbian OS ...
mattgrab @ 11/22/2002 1:18:18 PM #
I agree. Distribution is huge. Nokia and Ericsson are hot commodities. The cell phone industry revolves around them, and goes where they go. If they stick an impressive OS inside a cell phone and include it for free, most people are going to use it. Plus, Symbian is a technically advanced, and good-looking OS.
I also agree that a $199 dell pda that does tons of multimedia will be a good seller compared to an m130, or a clie, or whatever it's stacked up against right now.

Matt

RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:24:11 PM #
Please list all the devices on sale now that have the Symbian OS in them...

RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/22/2002 3:53:09 PM #
Symbian modern and neat ?????????

Hey, Symbian has its merits but as far as modernity is concerned I have some doubts. Ever tried to create a String? Also, the HelloWorld thing is quite frightening.

OK I'm not a Symbian developer, and hope never to become one. As far as I'm concerned his real strong point is support of Java. Everything else looks like mid 90 stuff, all in C++ and hence not very rapid to develop. AFAIK no garbage collector. Etc etc.

I strongly hope OS6 will be something else, more Java style.
Palmato


------------------------
Tired of PPC? Get a TT!

RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 4:23:55 PM #
I'm still waiting for a list of "Symbian Inside" devices (I am not being snide; just curious). Didn't infosync pan the Ericsson-Sony SymbianOS phone?

RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/22/2002 4:58:45 PM #
Try this one.
http://www.symbian.com/technology/symbos-phones.html

Have no idea whether it's complete or not.
Palmato

PS: Bluetooth rules!!!


------------------------
Tired of PPC? Get a TT!

RE: Symbian OS ...
rsc1000 @ 11/23/2002 12:46:51 PM #
>>Do not forget the sale force of nokia and ercisson

I have been dying to actual get some hands-on time with a Symbian device - my euro friends love the OS. But is there any significant Symbian presence in North America? Any devices at all (i haven't really searched but nothing has crossed my path anywhere).

As for the comments above about nokia and ericisson, remember: nokia and ericisson are massive but they have made there share of mistakes. They were the biggest boosters of WAP, which is widely regarded as one of the biggest blunders in modern tech industry. telcos and handset makers - especially ericisson - lost huge amounts of money on this. Not sure about Nokia, but ericsson is not doing so well these days.


RE: Symbian OS ...
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 4:59:55 PM #
>>Try this one.
>>http://www.symbian.com/technology/symbos-phones.html

>>Have no idea whether it's complete or not.

-------

What? That's ALL?! We've been seeing the Symbian OS touted for at least two years with that new skin for portrait screens -- and yet, who has adopted it? What PDAs have it?

RE: Symbian OS ...
palmato @ 11/24/2002 5:34:16 PM #
Searching on google I found another phone, the 380s from Ericsson which should have been discontinued by now.
As pda I found the Oregon Osaris Symbian OS Device (just don't ask me what it is), plus the psion series (5mx, 7, Revo and NetBook).
Plus a thing called Netpad, designed mainly for industrial applications.

Is the list somewhat skimpy? You bet. Nokia however should use symbian more intensively in the next few months but, and here's the catch, only in higher end devices.
Also the arrival of the Godot... P800 should make the OS more appealing to other manufacturers.

We'll see.
Palmato

RE: Symbian OS ...
pistache @ 11/25/2002 4:40:52 AM #
Hi,

I'm a little bit disappointed : It's always the same thing : North Americ is far from being the only tech place in the world. "If it is not in the US it means that it doesn't even exists nor can sell anywhere else"...boring.
I'm european , and worse than that ... french :-). And here symbian phone are selling like hotcake especailly the one 7600 with camera (the big 9200 with keyboard was a major hit too).
Also orange has presented and annouced the windows smartphone they'll sold. And the i-mode has begun this month.
Pda is a little market ... but phone is a huge one, and we see few treo there ...but so many 9200 and 7600.

Thomas

RE: Symbian OS ...
mikeymikey @ 11/25/2002 6:34:35 PM #
Nokia 7650, 3650, 9210, 9210c, 9210i, 9290
Nokia NGage
SonyEricsson P800
Ericsson R380

infosync haven't reviewed the p800 yet, but all the preview reviews say it's hot.

RE: Symbian OS ...
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:29:58 AM #
Bond baddies use P800s, so they must be cool...

FBN

2 out of 10 ain't bad

robrecht @ 11/22/2002 1:29:54 PM #
Isn't it nice how hardly anyone has gloated about how wrong Mike Cane was last year?

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
ska @ 11/22/2002 1:34:19 PM #
>>10) Palm will shift its focus to the high-end consumer and businesses, to prop up profits. Sony will address multimedia for consumers, Handspring will go after mainstream consumers with new Springboard-free Palm OS PDAs and its Treo. Newbies and the low-enders will snap up the super-cheap Asian Dragonballed versions. HandEra will get lost in the shuffle. >>

How time has changed. Palm is the low ender, while Sony becomes a major players. Handera and HS are no more.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
nanurse @ 11/22/2002 2:15:57 PM #
Instead of predicting things to come, why don't we just list the things we'd like to see, you know the people that actually buy these products. I realize everyone uses their device diffrently, but guess what maybe somone from Palm and Sony actually read these boards every now and then.

Palm and Sony have been a little short on devices lately. The Tungsten, though I applaud the new design, comes a little short. What was the driving factor for the collabsible design? The device, even when extended to it's full length fit's into my pocket. If they wanted to innovate, the screen would have had a virtual grafitti area. Also, there has to be some rule that says when you release a new product, make sure it has the same capabilites plus new ones than the similar product from the competition. I think it's insane that you cannot play MP3's out of the box n a Tungsten. Everyone seems to say, ah the Ipod is better or this or that is better; Guess what folks, you have to buy that hardware it better be better but it also means you have to drag that other piece of hardware behind you. Kudos on their voice capability, that's long overdue and it also appears to be a very good implementation. Double kudos on the built in Bluetooth. I keep hearing the WiFi naysayers, but unless I'm missing something I'm missing all these WiFi watering holes people keep referring to. I do however have a Blueetooth enable phone and what a great idea to dial my cell phone from my Palm pilot, or use my Palm interface to retrieve information from the web, or to have my phone pass my pop e-mail directly to my Palm without ever talking my phone off my waist. With WiFi, I'd have all these capablities also, but oh yeah, I'd have to locate these mystical WiFi hibs first.

Sony's new NX series device is clearly targeted, not at the serious Palm user but at the leading edge Technofile. Camera, video, voice, keyboard, compact flash, the only thing missing is a toe nail clipper. Also, try getting that thing into a shirt pocket. I guess I'm just simple but Grafitti works for me, it always has, it's intuitive and easy to learn and I'd much rather use that than thumb my way through data entry.

So that brings me my ultimate device, and this is where I hope some visionary at Palm or Sony happens to have a few hours of time to browse my tirade.

1. Increased screen size due to use of virtual grafitti area.
2. Built in voice recorder
3. Built in Bluetooth
4. Memory Stick or SD card slot
5. Play's MP3s (OUT OF THE BOX)
6. Fits comfortably into a shirt pocket
7. A stylus that actually stays in place when you slide it into the device
8. Decent battery life, what I mean by decent is you're required to charge it no less than every 3 days after "normal use"
9. Hi Resolution screen

I realize both Palm and Sony already have a lot of these features, but neither of them have them in a single unit, let's see who brings it to market first.


RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:25:52 PM #
>>With WiFi, I'd have all these capablities also, but oh yeah, I'd have to locate these mystical WiFi hibs first.

-- some of us (like, me!) live in NYC. Lotsa WiFi here. Free too (and, no, I'm not talking about cracking into corp networks). San Francisco, I think, has a lot of free WiFi. As does Hawaii.

What does Bluetooth do for me? Enable me to tell the TT to trust Microsoft's BT-enabled mouse? Feh.

Oh, and also to have to get a cellphone (which I don't want) so I can complain about the lousy voice quality and faint at the bill at the end of each month...

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/22/2002 7:51:09 PM #
"What does Bluetooth do for me? Enable me to tell the TT to trust Microsoft's BT-enabled mouse? Feh.

Oh, and also to have to get a cellphone (which I don't want) so I can complain about the lousy voice quality and faint at the bill at the end of each month..."

BT and WiFi merits aside, this kind of an ostrich mentality will never produce a well balanced set of predictions. You sir are heavily biased.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:42:58 PM #
>>You sir are heavily biased.

Duh. You could tell?

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 10:17:53 AM #
>> Duh. You could tell?

Hiding ignorance behind sarcasm. What an innovative concept.

Fact remains that your "predictions" are nothing more than personal preferences. Every member of this board could compile a wish list and call it predictions.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
Timothy Rapson @ 11/24/2002 6:30:53 PM #
RVDW, you are more than welcome to post your 10 predictions here. It is called "having a discussion". If you don't want one, don't waste your time telling others not to have one.

As regards your comments about blue tooth and such. Many of us also don't see the use, but that is no reason to knock someone else's predictions.

Personally, I find these prediction threads about the most interesting thing about PDAs. There is still a newness and unpredictability about PDAs that is just not there with desktops, cars, homes, and most other goods.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 11:46:48 PM #
> As regards your comments about blue tooth and such. Many of us also
> don't see the use, but that is no reason to knock someone else's predictions.

If you don't see the use for BT, then you're just not informed enough. However, it's quite understandable that the applications for BT are not useful to you personally, but that's completely different from putting the concept down alltogether.

Naming absurd examples (coupling a PDA with a mouse? oh please...) to make a technology seem useless while thousands have embraced it is immature, short sighted and no better than what the PPC afficionados do when trolling these forums. Also, when you don't need a cell phone, just say that you don't need one, not that having a BT device means that you "have to" get one and that they have lousy voice quality. I suppose the man hasn't had his hands on a cell phone in the past 5 years if that's his universal truth.

Sure, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but that includes me. And I say that nonsense arguments don't explain to me why this man's predictions need to be promoted to the headlines while others have shown to be equally, if not more accurate.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:08:40 PM #
>>If you don't see the use for BT, then you're just not informed enough.

Oh, please! You should work for the gov't promoting the war against Iraq! (Do you?)

Some people do *not* have a use for BT. Live with it.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/25/2002 3:19:23 PM #
> Oh, please! You should work for the gov't
> promoting the war against Iraq! (Do you?)

You sure have trouble dealing with criticism for someone posting an article like this. What did you expect? For us to all drop down at your feet and say amen and hallelujah?

And no, my current job suits me just fine, thank you. I have no interest in working for your government.

> Some people do *not* have a use for BT. Live with it.

I've got no problem with that, certainly not to "live with it".

The point is (which you still don't seem to grasp) that ridiculing the technology as a whole is completely different from not seeing a use for it personally. Instead of contributing a balanced set of pros and cons, you come up with nonsensical examples to make BT look useless for *everyone* not just *yourself*.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:51:51 AM #
Hello, I am the author of the piece. It *is* stamped OPINION. If you want "opinion" by committee, go elsewhere. If I don't like something, I will say so. If you don't like that, you can say so. (And you do, repeatedly...)

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/26/2002 1:33:15 PM #
If it's just opinion, why do you get so worked up over mine?

I attend a lot of conferences and the apparently simple task of checking my mail while sitting on one of those typical cramped ad hoc conference hall chairs has always been a balancing act for me; trying to put both my cell phone and PDA on my leg, keeping their IR ports facing eachother and hoping one of them won't drop to the floor when someone pokes me in the back while taking the seat behind me. With BT, I can keep my cell phone in my pocket and my Palm in my hand.

I also send and receive a lot of SMS's. Doing this on a cell phone is much more cumbersome than using a PDA, especially when combined with a PPK or Stowaway. Try doing that with IR, it's even more of an acrobatic performance than emailing from your knee. With BT, my phone is in my pocket or briefcase and I'm comfortably typing away on my PPK while sitting at the dinner table or my office desk.

You may have no use for these applications, but if you're suggesting that BT is no good for anything but connecting your Palm to a mouse, then you have trouble separating facts from fiction. That's *my* opinion.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:44:46 PM #
Well, thanks for explaining that. I had no idea most of you had been doing an IR balancing act like that. That takes dedication. For people like you, I can see why BT is a savior.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
Timothy Rapson @ 11/26/2002 7:43:03 PM #
RVDW,

On rereading your original comments, I see I misread it the first time. I thought you were saying that Mike should not be allowed his own opinion. Perhaps I was mixing your comments up with others in this LONG thread. Your final comments make it more clear that you were not so much saying that the predictions were so lame that Mike should just shut up and go away. You really were just disagreeing his own view of the use of BT.

My apologies for attacking you.

Your final comments on your personal use of BT show it's value well.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
rvdw @ 11/27/2002 6:34:40 PM #
Mike: this far down the thread, I'm no longer sure if you're still being sarcastic or if you really see my point. Being a positive kind of guy, I'll just assume the latter.

Timothy: I would never want to silence anyone (with ska being an exception to that rule although I can even see the merits of his arguments from time to time), nor could I even if I wanted to. I just feel that a one sided view promoted as an absolute truth is not a good thing. BTW, I didn't take your first comment as an attack so no apology is necessary.

RE: 2 out of 10 ain't bad
mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:13:59 AM #
I see your point. I wish others had mentioned that struggle up front.

Personal predictions

Lungboy @ 11/22/2002 2:52:47 PM #
This will be the year of Sony

1) Late Summer, software appears with the ability to flash PalmOS 5 to PPC devices. Many converts, end of the year, PPC hardware vendors start to offer models with PPC or PalmOS

2) Sony announces new handheld gaming platform running PalmOS to compete with Nintendo's Gameboy.

3)Handspring in a last ditch "Hail-Mary" release smart phone with different OS, Symbian or Linux. This will fail, but they will still be alive at the end of the year.

4) Zire gets updated to have 4 application buttons and 8 mb RAM, news of new device is leaked. Current Zire sales plummet. Palm has major hardware write-offs.

5) Early spring, Sony's clamshell model boasting speeds over 450mhz, shortly afterwards new models start to increase base memory up to 128mb.

6) Most PalmOS licensees ship devices with bluetooth

7) Cher marries one of the Baldwin's. Doesn't really matter which one. Neither buy a palm.

8) Smart phones start to be replaced by full sized pda's with bluetooth earpieces.

9) I finally finish the RPG I've been working on for 3 years. Fails to attract customers, I sob pathetically.

10) Handera comes out of nowhere with 320x480 500mhz model with 1gb HD and wireless. Comes with docking station to allow KVM/LAN integration.


Well that's the PDA world as I see it, check you in a year!!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Eagles may soar but at least weasles don't get sucked into jet engines.

RE: Personal predictions
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:29:11 PM #
Was it Jimmy Durante who said, "Everybody wants to get into the act!"?

It'll be interesting to come back to all these lists in a year.

RE: Personal predictions
Foo Fighter @ 11/22/2002 4:05:08 PM #
> "end of the year, PPC hardware vendors start to offer models with PPC or PalmOS"

That's never going to happen. For one thing, it would cause a licensing nightmare for hardware vendors. This isn't the PC market where you can install any OS on any hardware. When will PDA geeks give up this pipe dream? You want a Palm....buy a Palm! You want PPC...then buy one!


"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

RE: Personal predictions
Schorsch @ 11/22/2002 4:23:10 PM #
Lunqboy,

Who leaked the configuration of the new Handera to you????

Georg

RE: Personal predictions
Lungboy @ 11/22/2002 7:57:46 PM #
"That's never going to happen. For one thing, it would cause a licensing nightmare for hardware vendors. This isn't the PC market where you can install any OS on any hardware. "

Compaq offered the ability to flash Linux on an Ipaq. But too few people took advantage of it. I tried it, but didn't really like it. Not enough apps.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Eagles may soar but at least weasles don't get sucked into jet engines.

RE: Personal predictions
Timothy Rapson @ 11/26/2002 7:54:24 PM #
RE "9) I finally finish the RPG I've been working on for 3 years. Fails to attract customers, I sob pathetically."

I hope that prediction is wrong. You actually finish the game, make millions, and I get to say "I knew him when."


reading tea leaves

hotpaw4 @ 11/22/2002 3:20:14 PM #
Oh, this is fun. Here's what my tea leaves suggest:

1) Given Dell's sales force and a huge PPC advertising budget derived from Microsoft's monopoly profits, PPC market share will go up, mostly from sales into the enterprise space, but only by a few percent. However, PalmOS handhelds will still keep over twice the market share of all PPC manufacturers put together. Thus both PalmOS and PPC backers will still be gloating at each other on palminfocenter that their choosen platform is "winning".

2) Prices will drop. Zires at around $50 will eat into the low-end scientific calculator market.

3) Some schools will start requiring either Dana or Zire PDA's for every student.

4) Both Sony and PalmSG will put OS 5 into stylish, thin and light form factors, priced under $300 before year end.

5) Cheap Bluetooth-to-ethernet and pocket size Bluetooth-to-wifi bridges will be introduced, providing a much more battery efficient method of connecting a palmtop to the web than built-in 802.11.

6) The Tungsten W fails to get market traction, but the smaller PalmOS powered phones will do better than expected.

7) Someone will demo a PalmOS powered head mounted display.

8) The Fossil watch will flop, but similar technology in a cute pink PalmOS pendant will become a hit among Japanese schoolgirls.

9) PalmOS 6 will be later than expected, introduced to developers in Q3/Q4 2003 and not put into shipping products until early 2004. However when OS 6.1 products finally start shipping, they will start cutting back into the PPC's market share (similar to how Mac OS X is
currently cutting into the Windows market share).

10) Apple will introduce another PDA disguised as a media or lifestyle product, again winning a few design awards.

IMHO. YMMV.

RE: reading tea leaves
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:31:45 PM #
I like your #5. Too bad this is public. I would have liked to steal it! Hah!

Do you envision this as a sorta "bridge box" that has its own batteries, that you plug in each night to recharge? As long as it's lightweight and maybe has a belt clip or wrist strap -- and is *cheeep* -- I'd like that.

RE: reading tea leaves
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 3:49:54 PM #
How is this different from the WiFi/BT crossover access point that Ben Combee spoke about above?

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: reading tea leaves
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 3:53:51 PM #
Good God! It doesn't seem to be! So, I would have been stealing stolen goods, would I?

I must have been slpopy (sic) in reading ben's original comments. I took his crossover point thingie to be a box that sits near a PC, not a pocketable device.

RE: reading tea leaves
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 4:00:44 PM #
My idea wasn't totally original -- I'm sure I've heard of the concept elsewhere. Perhaps I was inspired by the GPS-to-BT pocket box that was on PIC yesterday, or the recently announced Bluetooth hard drives that act like tiny file servers but are the size of an iPod. I can't wait to see a BT keyboard profile for the TT that would let me use by random BlueTooth keyboard with the device.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com
RE: reading tea leaves
mtt @ 11/22/2002 4:25:20 PM #
hotpaw4... you get the award for the most accurate predictions yet... I predict. I like your japanese schoolgirl prediction.

MTT
RE: reading tea leaves
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 4:25:55 PM #
Yeah, Toshiba has that "Bluetooth fileserver in a your pocket" device. That's neat.

RE: reading tea leaves
mtt @ 11/22/2002 4:30:04 PM #
...in regards to the bluetooth to WiFi server, I actually imagine that it could be a cellphone that could do this. Maybe the next reiteration of the Ericsson 520.

MTT
RE: reading tea leaves
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 4:38:33 PM #
For those of us who have accepted that we will probably need to carry both a cell phone and a pda for a while to come (mostly for respectable battery life) that might be a very workable solution!

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: reading tea leaves
Dang Dog @ 11/22/2002 9:39:07 PM #
OK, I don't know why anyone's concerned about the predictions of a guy who's batting average would get him booted out of the minors, but I for one will offer my own predictions for next year and wait to see how I look in 12 months.

For the record, I wrote these before seeing Lungboy's or Hotpaw4"s predictions, both of which I like.

1. The quiet death of Handspring. Maybe they won't be all the way dead but the buzzards will be circling. 'Nuff said. Palm SG1 (sorry) might buy some of the remains, but they won't be eager to try to resurrect the brand.

2. Sony won't dump their MS and they won't release or support any higher capacity MS either, infuriating their loyal legions. Third party sticks will be fraught with problems.

3. Very few people will care about OS 6 beyond the geek fringe because it will have taken so long for developers to upgrade software for OS 5 and buyers will be understandably hesitant to jump yet again to a largely new OS.

4. PalmSource will sell software. An OS is software, ergo...

5. Sony will gain market share with several new designs and their usual parade of releases; I expect at least one totally new form factor and maybe two, plus reiterations of the current crop. Palm SG1 will maintain a near-static share due to lack of anything approaching a novel design after blowing their creative wad on Tungsten T. Further, Palm SG1's products will be plagued with quality issues.

6. Tablet PCs will be a tiny and slow-growing niche market for most of 2003. No one will buy an oversized PDA that doesn't have complete connectivity.

7. PalmSource will breakout of mama's shadow with a bunch of new licensees as soon as its house is order (maybe sooner). Most of the new players will have trouble differentiating themselves, and their marketshare will stay in the low single digits.

8. Gateway and Dell won't believe me on No. 7, and one or both will license the Palm OS. We won't see the device(s) untill the 4th Q. Sony will keep them from making inroads on their share, so most of the bite will come out of Palm SG1's slice.

9. Palm SG1's smartphones will surprise everyone with greater marketshare that Handspring ( see No. 1 ) and some high-level enterprise penetration ( I love that phrase ). Other Palm OS smartphones will grow, and the orphan OS phones will mostly flounder. The largest part of the buying public will ignore Bluetooth and wait until connecting is cheaper and easier.

10. I agree that positive public perception will continue to lift the boats of Palm licensees and MS will continue to poison its own well, resulting in a low or no-growth year for PPC.

Check back with me next year to learn my first year's batting average and how I stack up to the pros.

DOG

RE: reading tea leaves
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:45:12 PM #
Perhaps by then you could learn to post only *once*?

RE: reading tea leaves
cypher76 @ 11/23/2002 4:43:26 PM #
And not allowing anonymous users to post on PIC was supposed to end off-topic, juvenile comments like the one Mike just posted...
RE: reading tea leaves
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 5:02:58 PM #
Oh, stop it. The noise level here has been very low -- and he did post twice.

RE: reading tea leaves
stupidnewpolicy @ 11/23/2002 7:15:53 PM #
I had actually wondered what the ultimate purpose was of disallowing anonymous posting. I haven't really noticed a significant drop in the signal to noise ratio. Of course, the noise that IS/WAS here never bothered me in the first place.

You can probably tell from my username what MY opinion of disalowing anonymous posts is.



Ick

Credit

Jonmills88 @ 11/22/2002 4:32:59 PM #
Sorry Mike not really going to give your predictions much credit...Anyone could see the springboard was dead the shear size of that thing killed it. Anyway Palm and Handspring becoming one yeah thats going to happen or something like it. Handspring wont survive on its own, unless the economy picks up. Treo great idea they just dont have the capcity to sell it.

Aside from that I am not really sure what you meant by Palm failing they wont. Tungsten T will sell really well, considering it is the first great product palm has made since the V. Look at all the other crappy products they sold in between and still managed to keep going.

OS 6 won't be late...it is too big of a release. As far as your other predictions you may get some of those right but considering you only got 20% of last years right...I wouldnt be too happy with your prefomance.

I will give you credit for the 802.11b that will be huge this year. The networks are already in place so they just have to start selling the products. The SD card from SYCHIP will sell very well. And I agree Palm will have a WIFI device out. Other than that I dont see your other predictions as comming true.

Why

masitti @ 11/22/2002 4:46:16 PM #
Why is Mike posting predictions like this when on other boards he talks about trying to get a PPC... :-
While these are interesting, where did you come up with these? Random...?

------------------------
Mario Masitti
O/T Mod
I Love Tennis :)
RE: Why
masitti @ 11/22/2002 10:39:37 PM #
Just reread my post... after second glance, it may seem kinda negative - I am just curious about where/what lead you to these predictions. Sometimes text can be interpretted wrong, and just wanted to make note of this. Thanks! :)

------------------------
Mario Masitti
O/T Mod
I Love Tennis :)
RE: Why
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 5:04:13 PM #
Well, I haven't gotten a PPC. See the last line of the essay. Are we to have loyalty oaths now? (The Patriot Act goes too far as it is!)

Too Funny

mashby @ 11/22/2002 5:09:56 PM #
Mike, thanks for a good read. I don't agree with everything you said, but thanks for the article. I had a good laugh at some of them.

Michael T. Ashby
Director
InterPUG
http://www.interpug.com
RE: Too Funny
Ba-gug @ 11/22/2002 9:14:36 PM #
Me too! I must admit 2.5 out of 10 last years predictions, wow I'm glad your not picking my stocks, but at least you did better than the broker I just fired!

Please buy Palm stuff, I want my stock to go back up so I can sell it!

And now, for something completely the same...

Scott R @ 11/22/2002 10:04:53 PM #
Mike, gotta tell you I think you may have set yourself up to actually worsen your accuracy rate this time around. I had trouble finding much that I'd agree with. I found hotpaw4's predictions to be much more insightful and I agree pretty strongly with about 6 of his, with only about 2 of the remaining 4 being ones that I'd strongly disagree with.

That being, said, here are a few predictions of my own...

1) Profit-wise, everyone's Xmas will be fairly grim this year. Palm SG will do quite well in terms of volume, however, thanks to dumping stock of older OS4 models at rock-bottom prices, though. Low-cost PPCs will sell decently, but not in huge numbers simply because of the poor economy. Had PPCs at these prices been available last Xmas, the PPC OS would have really given Palm a spanking, but times are different and excitement and spending will be at an all time low this year.

2) Here's the prediction that I feel quite happy about, simply because I'm totally disagreeing with just about everyone else on this one, it seems. Handspring, far from going out of business or being bought out due to "lackluster sales of the Treo" will, instead, report that sales of their Treo 300 did extremely well this quarter. Although you won't find any mention of it in their glowing press release, the reason will have little to do with them but a lot to do with Sprint. Thanks to Sprint's new all-you-can-eat low-cost "high-speed" data plans, the Treo 300 has now become infinitely more appealing. This will all give Handspring a much-needed shot in the arm and we'll actually see some innovative next-generation Treos built upon either OS5 or a brand new OS of their own making.

3) Thanks to many companies leaving Java to return to MS' development tools (Visual Studio .NET) 2003 will finally be the year (though probably not until mid-year) where we'll actually start to see some companies purchase large numbers of PPCs (probably Dells) and create some very interesting in-house apps designed using Microsoft's Visual Studio .NET and Compact Framework technology (the latter of which has FINALLY gone gold).

4) Microsoft's Smartphone will be a lackluster seller overseas and won't make it to the US until mid-year or so, where it will receive a ho-hum response here as well.

5) The Tungsten W will hit the market with a big thud thanks to Palm not "getting it." RIM's initial approach into integrating wireless phones into their Blackberries made the same mistakes that Palm is doing now (e.g. - makes a lousy phone).

6) Danger will iron out some of the hardware Quality Control bugs of the Hiptop, release more polished PIM apps, and open the floodgates to 3rd party developers (by finally releasing the SDK). 2003 will see them release a color Hiptop for both T-Mobile and another carrier (I predict Sprint, though Verizon would make me happier). They'll also increase the resolution of their camera (don't expect too much, though - 640x480 at most) and POSSIBLY integrate the camera into the back of the device itself. In short, Danger will emerge as the company to be feared by both PalmSource and Microsoft as they will have done to mobile communicators what Palm did with the original PDA: Develop a device from the ground up which excels at what it's designed for (email, web surfing, Instant messaging, and PIM). The only thing that could keep them at bay would be if Handspring's next generation device really kicks the Treo 300 up a notch and blows the color Hiptop out of the water spec-wise (see prediction #2). Hard to predict.

Scott

RE: And now, for something completely the same...
bcombee @ 11/22/2002 11:37:04 PM #
I disagree about Danger. Their device is pretty neat, but I've not seen them very eager to support third-party developers, and they are too closely tied to the carriers to let random apps run on their phones. I think they will suffer like RIM does, with a reasonably popular but closed platform that will hit a niche, but not have room to grow.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com
RE: And now, for something completely the same...
Scott R @ 11/23/2002 10:39:26 AM #
That's definitely a big question right now. Rumor has it that the 3rd party development tools exist and they should be released within the next couple of months. I agree that the platform won't be as open as the Palm OS, but I think that the minds behind Danger realize that they need an active developer community to really make this device a hit. As such, I predict that what we'll see is a model whereby the only way for a user to install an app will be via the provider's web site and the providers will all get a certain percentage of the software sale.

Scott

RE: And now, for something completely the same...
Scott R @ 11/23/2002 10:39:26 AM #
That's definitely a big question right now. Rumor has it that the 3rd party development tools exist and they should be released within the next couple of months. I agree that the platform won't be as open as the Palm OS, but I think that the minds behind Danger realize that they need an active developer community to really make this device a hit. As such, I predict that what we'll see is a model whereby the only way for a user to install an app will be via the provider's web site and the providers will all get a certain percentage of the software sale.

Scott

SONY won't drop the memory stick

serpico @ 11/23/2002 3:32:30 AM #
"2) Sony Drops Memory Stick"

I don't think so. The memory stick is not in the same boat as say SD/MMC cards. Sure for memory storage they can do the same thing and some I/O devices will soon come out as we have seen some prototypes.

But if you see the way SONY is pushing their memory stick it is very different than anything else. SONY can and will incoporate memory stick slots to all their electronics. We can think it's weird, but I think it is a great idea. Imagine not using a pc to view photos taken from a digital camera but instead on your tv. The ideas are endless.

Some may not agree and think SD is the best thing (I agree it is a great alternative to CompactFlash)but I think if SONY has a slot in all their devices it will encourage more people to use the memory stick. I know some non-techie family and friends who think it is the best thing for them. They feel like they don't need to learn a new thing or set up a PC to use the memory stick.

We'll see next year how far it all goes. I do agree that the storage capacity needs to grow to compete still.

RE: SONY won't drop the memory stick
mfs @ 11/23/2002 9:38:47 AM #
"Imagine not using a pc to view photos taken from a digital camera but instead on your tv. The ideas are endless."

Sony already makes a TV with a Memory Stick slot to do this. Imagain no more, its here!

RE: SONY won't drop the memory stick
sonicxracer @ 11/25/2002 12:35:29 PM #
I agree... Sony uses too many things with the memory stick. No way in hell are they gonna get rid of it. They have Memory Stick slots in evertything these days... their NEW MODELS of TV's, computers and laptops, cameras, AND PDA's.

SD, MemoryStick: both proprietary

mj6798 @ 11/23/2002 7:40:51 AM #
Both SD (SecureDigital) and MemoryStick are proprietary and closed. For
SD, you need to become a paying member of a consortium and cannot redistribute
open source drivers. MemoryStick may actually be more open than that since
Sony may actually make the driver information available.

As far as I know, MMC is open, as is CompactFlash.  Of course, MMC
is physically compatible with SD, and most devices support both.


Sony does PPC?

Gekko @ 11/23/2002 9:38:33 AM #
Does anyone predict that Sony will do a Clie PPC someday to hedge their bets? As PPC and PalmOS hardware specs collide and meet - maybe?

RE: Sony does PPC?
abosco @ 11/23/2002 1:28:00 PM #
Nope. [:)]

Sony picked Palm OS from the start and I don't see them switching unless they see a huge gap that needs to be filled.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

RE: Sony does PPC?
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 11:53:26 AM #
If there's a huge gap, they will shape and dice a PalmOS device to fit it. How else did they came up with the original N700? :)

My own predictions

robman @ 11/23/2002 12:24:02 PM #
Since everyone else is jumping off a cliff, I might as well do the same. My predictions for 2003:

1) SDIO will become the premiere method for PDA expansion. Most vendors will release a "bare bones" device which includes minimal memory and two or three SDIO slots. Third party manufacturers will scramble to produce a wide variety of add-ons (bluetooth, wi-fi, gps, cameras, memory, etc) so you can pick and choose what you want on your PDA.

2) Sony will eventually crumble and release a PDA with an SD slot (in addition to an MS slot), which will wildly outsell their other models. By the end of the year Sony will announce plans include an SD slot (or two!) on all of their new PDAs.

3) Handera will design a color Palm OS 5 device, with two SD slots, virtual graffiti and an impressive form factor. They will be unable to launch it effectively and will need a cash infusion from a larger company. This will eventually lead to their acquistion by the same firm.

4) IR will die. 2003 will be the last year in which new devices are introduced with beaming.

5) Handspring will be aquired by Kyocera.

6) AlphaSmart will be the most successful Palm OS licensee in 2003, selling almost a million Danas to schools in time for the start of the fall semester.

7) Someone will introduce a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth pocket-sized bridge. Ben Combee will wait in line at Fry's to buy one. It will be intensely popular until a variable-power Wi-Fi spec is released making battery use of Wi-Fi comprably of that of Bluetooth.

8) 2003 will be the year of PDA viruses. Leveraging known weaknesses like WEP in Wi-Fi, and new holes in Bluetooth, malicious programs will target PDAs on the open Internet. Even worse, some viruses will install payloads intended for the users host PC, that will not do their damage until *after* synchronization.

9) The Dell Axim series will become a signficant drain on their tech support, and force them to abandon the line, possibly in favor of a Palm OS device.

10) Carl Yankowski will appear out of nowhere with a PDA startup licensing the Palm OS. Within the year they will vanish.

11) Apple will start bundling Palms with their computers....possibly rebranding them in Steve's Own Image.

That is all.

Palm Researcher at the University of Texas at Austin
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/petrosino/pda

RE: My own predictions
abosco @ 11/23/2002 1:31:25 PM #
I don't see IR dying anytime soon. How will somebody share an application with their new PDA to their friend's IIIc? Bluetooth? Nope. All they have is IR and it is one of the greatest things a PDA can do. You don't think it's just flat out amazing how we have an application, walk near a friend, stand there for 10 seconds, and you both walk out with the application? All Bluetooth would do in place of IR would be that it doesn't need to line up.

IR won't go this year. I suspect around 2006 will we start seeing devices without IR.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

RE: My own predictions
robman @ 11/24/2002 12:51:33 PM #
>How will somebody share an application with
>their new PDA to their friend's IIIc?

It's not like a new OS 5 or OS 6 application is going to work on that Palm IIIc anyway.

Furthermore, as applications get larger, IR becomes more and more cumbersome. 10 seconds is a LONG time to wait for an application, and I have to wait much longer for 300k+ apps.


Palm Researcher at the University of Texas at Austin
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/petrosino/pda

RE: My own predictions
mashoutposse @ 11/24/2002 7:58:50 PM #
Um, what about beaming addresses, memos, business cards... you know, the things that PDAs are made for? :)
RE: My own predictions
Kesh @ 11/24/2002 8:27:36 PM #
IR will die once Bluetooth becomes affordable enough to be included in every handheld. Once the majority of shipping PalmOS devices have BT, IR will disappear.

RE: My own predictions
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:13:06 PM #
>>IR will die once Bluetooth becomes affordable enough to be included in every handheld. Once the majority of shipping PalmOS devices have BT, IR will disappear.


-- hmmm... so we will also have BT-equipped TVs to use that CLIE as a remote?

RE: My own predictions
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:50:40 AM #
Yes, companies like TV Compass are developing BT remote controls for digital TV (so the remote can download listings, adverts, games, etc. from the TV -- you can't do that with IR).

Plus, how many people buy a PDA to only control their TV?

FBN

RE: My own predictions
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:55:38 AM #
Geez. Who wants that? Will you have to make sure to plug in your remote overnight to recharge it? Just what everyone needs -- a remote control that spams you before it allows you to change a channel. (And so we get closer to Red Dwarf's hideous day of the Talking Toaster!)

RE: My own predictions
Fly-By-Night @ 11/27/2002 5:17:56 AM #
Personally I think it would be quite useful having the program guide on your remote. As for the spam -- I get spammed every 15 minutes watching commercial television anyway; a bit more on the remote won't affect me to much.

You won't need to recharge the remote every day. BT uses hardly any power. Your thinking of WiFi again Mike.

FBN

RE: My own predictions
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 11:55:30 AM #
Mike... you gotta keep up with a LOT of stuff... Hey, I thought you lived in New York. Funny you were never up to speed in a lot of the developments. We Canucks far away in Vancouver seems to have a better idea on what's going on... :)

If they make a BT remote control, IMHO it will still lasts MONTHES before you need a new battery. BT isn't as power sapping as 802.11b, as that's what your dream remote would be using. And they can power down the whole freaking BT module when they don't need to use it. It will THEN use the same or less power than a comparable IR remote.

As for charging, why plug it in overnight, just keep your place neat and leave the remote on the wireless charging mat. Simple.

Years ago, GM had their electric cars for the tropical/warm climate (heater kills the battery, so it can't be used here), and it uses a very powerful non-contact charging system that basically sends out the power in the form of magnetic fields, the slot in the card have the corrosponding coils to pick it up. Extremely safe, no human contact with a few KV and quite a few amps of power. (They call it house on wheels, that's how much power it suck up)

Now since earlier this year, they have introduced a much smaller and simpler version of the same thing. A charging mat, you put your PDA, cell phone, remote on top of it, and it will automatically charge up. Not that the remote would need it soon anyways.

RE: My own predictions
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:13:55 PM #
I've heard about this charging mat recently but didn't pay much attention. Since I only need to charge my CLIE (and I do that only every 2-3 days now), it's not something I really concentrated on. For people who have multiple devices that need charging (you poor souls!), it sounds like they could use it.

RE: My own predictions
Maniac @ 11/28/2002 4:18:19 PM #
Not that a BT enabled remote would need charging in a month or two. BT isn't WiFi... stop sticking that powersucker label to every BT device that comes your way. Keep them for your 802.11 type devices.

RE: My own predictions
useybird @ 1/1/2003 11:05:28 PM #
"Plus, how many people buy a PDA to only control their TV?"

The same amount of people who impulsively buy those $1000 remotes with color screens to control their $50,000 Home theater system.
BTW, Bluetooth isn't the only waste of power. The power system on my M130 was designed so inefficiently, that when i do a soft reset, The battery level instantly drops from 96% to 82% on my Launcher X. The Palm OS is not a power-efficient system. My m130 has the same battery life as a Pocket PC. One time I didn't charge it for 3 days and when I went to turn it on, the battery was totally gone. Shows how good the Palm OS is with battery.

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.

RE: My own predictions
useybird @ 1/1/2003 11:05:28 PM #
"Plus, how many people buy a PDA to only control their TV?"

The same amount of people who impulsively buy those $1000 remotes with color screens to control their $50,000 Home theater system.
BTW, Bluetooth isn't the only waste of power. The power system on my M130 was designed so inefficiently, that when i do a soft reset, The battery level instantly drops from 96% to 82% on my Launcher X. The Palm OS is not a power-efficient system. My m130 has the same battery life as a Pocket PC. One time I didn't charge it for 3 days and when I went to turn it on, the battery was totally gone. Shows how good the Palm OS is with battery.

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.

Product of the year 2003

ska @ 11/23/2002 1:16:54 PM #
-ZireII ($99 + $20 accessory)
It's the exact same Zire, except the case come with custumizable funky dancing LED sidelight. Teens and geeks go crazy over this utterly useless feature. They bought this faddish PDA by the dozens. ZireII saves Palm Inc from bankrupcy in Q3.

-Compaq will release iPAQ 7000 in December 2003. It will have 800mHz, 256 MB internal memory, audiophile quality soundchip, brand new QVGA hyper-transreflective screen, plus an enhanced all in one BT/WiFi/CDMA wireless. At cost of $1200 people are snapping up this high end model like there is no tomorrow. It is the must have toy for Wall st. execs.

-Dell releases an utterly boring and bland beyond believe everyman PDA with dual BT/WiFi, 64MB, 400mHz, replacable battery, baige color and no cradle. It will be priced at $350. Worker of the world seems to be mandated by their IT department to carry this gadget from the time of introduction on....

-Sony release ZZ90xl pda. It will have 4 inch VGA screen with built in in house multimedia graphic accelerator. This puppy basically is the entire desktop PC multimedia capabilities shrinked into size of NX series. still use Memory stick, but comes with 800mHz Xscale and 128MB internal memory. It also come with a dongle that people can connect to Sony made CFII accessory.

RE: Product of the year 2003
ska @ 11/23/2002 1:40:48 PM #
...oh and Apple finally release a PDA or something. It's cute, expensive beyond believe and has catchy name. It makes the cover page of Time/Newsweek, you name it.....but people just smile politely and move on.
RE: Product of the year 2003
abosco @ 11/23/2002 3:48:00 PM #
Oh yes, that iPaq 7000 has a battery life of 2 minutes and Wall Street exuctives snatch it up. Riiiiight. Nice try. For $1200, they'll sell two models. One to Bill Gates and one to his wife. That'll be it. Nobody would be crazy enough to spend $1200 on a PDA that costs more than a laptop and has tons less functionality, not to mention battery life of a half hour.

PPC goes back in the gutter this year thanks to Dell.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

RE: Product of the year 2003
ska @ 11/23/2002 4:03:59 PM #
Relax Bosco, you gonna own a PPC by year end. lol. put that on my prediction too. one in ten chances, put $2 bucks on it.
RE: Product of the year 2003
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 6:55:14 AM #
How about the iPAD for Apple's PDA?

FBN

RE: Product of the year 2003
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:06:19 PM #
"audiophile quality soundchip"

Yeah, and the supporting circuitry and amp will just totally **** up the sound so that it sounds tinny and lousy again.

No, I'm not poking fun at you, but that's what I usually see. One exception I've seen a while back was a Taiwanese made Korg Wavetable daughtercard, where it got a fairly nice Burr Brown DAC (ok, that's nothing too special), AND a pair of BB's op-AMP (I think).

I kinda doubt any of them will do that with PDA, hell, most big name companies don't even design their sound card properly, I don't think we can expect too much from them. Only gems from small companies with designers that's a bit nuts about high quality sound.

For proof of Money <> Quality, take a look at B&O's whole line of electronic products. They do have a quality "casing", but that's about it.

mocked

mfs @ 11/23/2002 1:48:09 PM #
Poor Mike Cane getting mocked with all our predictions.

Now for MY perdiction:

I think PDA predictions in 2003 will be a mocking topic again when you all are proud that you got less then 2.5 corrrect. It will be yet another sad artical.

RE: mocked
mikecane @ 11/23/2002 2:48:00 PM #
>>Poor Mike Cane getting mocked with all our predictions.

I'm not taking it that way. I can't wait to see how everyone else does against me in a year's time.

Disappointing

mikecane @ 11/23/2002 5:05:16 PM #
There were some very interesting links in my article and it seems no one bothered to go look. Did anyone read the WiFi link? Did anyone read the link to Kirvin's column? No one has even mentioned OS 5 themes and Cambio. (How many people here are still using 0S 4.x devices, I wonder?)

RE: Disappointing
robman @ 11/23/2002 8:19:29 PM #
I clicked on all the links and read (or had already read) all the articles. Thanks for providing a rich story with lots of links, Mike!

Wi-Fi is hot stuff, but until people like Boingo stop trying to "own" the network with their pay services, we won't see the widespread free coverage we need. I some entities will do ad insertion to create free coverage but for the most part universities and coffee shops and movie theaters and restaurants and, eventually, city parks and government buildings, will make Wi-Fi coverage complete and complety free by 2006. This will happen regardless of whether or not anyone can figure out how to scale the net well to a handheld for anything besides email.

OS 5 Themes. Yawn. I don't really care if my OS can customize themes or not. As long as people can continue to write their own Launchers (which obviously, Palm doesn't know how to do) then I'll get a third-party launcher which lets me pick my background colors.

Now it's true that the VAST majority of Palm users don't use ANY third-party software, much less a launcher app. For them, it seems like Palm might as well toss in themes. I'd MUCH rather have OS 5 handle SD memory seamlessly, though! It's a crime that you have to use a third-party extension if you want to keep a program on your SD card.

Cambio: Double Yawn. We know this application works, so Palm could release it (or somebody could just leak it now). And we know enough about it (http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=4250) that some enterprising developer could *easily* reproduce it. The number one problem with Cambio and what continues to be a problem with beaming is that databases and programs are strongly associated. Too many applications break if you don't beam all their components and in just the right order while holding your breath.

Palm OS 5 in general is disappointing. It looks to me like pretty much all it does is run (only) on the ARM processors. In terms of what the users see, it comes with basically the same set of apps that Palm has had for five years, with the same annoying limitations (4k memos, 15 categories). It promises great audio but doesn't come with an MP3 player. (Kinoma not withstanding).

I would not only say the vast majority of people on PIC are using Palm OS 5, but it's not like Palm is really making the jump themselves. The Zire comes with 4.1, and the Tungsten W, which is not even OUT yet, will ship with 4.1 as well. What kind of committment is this to your own "advanced OS"?

Palm OS 6 will have to bite the bullet and break compatibility with old apps, or fully emulate the old Dragonball processors. I just hope we all make it before being swallowed by the Redmond Giant. :-)



Palm Researcher at the University of Texas at Austin
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/petrosino/pda

Written in Memo Pad?

Grauniad @ 11/23/2002 8:42:37 PM #
How did you write an 8KB+ memo in Memo Pad which has a 4KB limit?
RE: Written in Memo Pad?
Gekko @ 11/24/2002 9:43:18 AM #
Answer: You don't. You write TWO 4kb memos.

RE: Written in Memo Pad?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:15:05 PM #
Actually, it was 3 and a fraction. I don't break up paras between Memos. (And don't forget: those Memos included the long links and formatting codes.)

Written in Memo Pad?

Grauniad @ 11/23/2002 8:42:37 PM #
How did you write an 8KB+ memo in Memo Pad which has a 4KB limit?

Micro-notebook

quiklogin @ 11/24/2002 4:17:22 PM #
"Fujitsu will cast its eyes on PalmOS and produce the first "micro notebook" PalmOS device. It will fit right below its current Lifebook mini-notebook line "

I can't believe nobody picked up on this! If this prediction comes true, I'll be in heaven! Let me explain:

I am a writer and uses a regular (i.e. heavy, big) laptop as my usual tool. I am also a Palm fan who's been onboard since the first PalmPilot Personal (my current is a Treo). I am absolutely addicted to it.

But sometimes I need to write on a longer text for a couple of hours without having my laptop around. It just kills me that small notebooks are actually *more expensive* than their heavier and better-specced counterparts.

I have tried and tried again to write longer texts on a Palm device, but it just doesn't work. I have a GoType keyboard that I used both with a Palm IIIc (too small screen) and a HandEra 330 (bigger screen, but less readable due to grayscale). No dice.

I just succumbed and bought a Jornada 690 cheap off an online auction. OK, Pocket Word is pathetic compared to WordSmith (ah, the irony!), but I just love the screen real estate and the fairly big keyboard!

Now, if only someone would make a PalmOS device in this form factor, I'd buy it and sell the Jornada again in a second!

And don't say "Dana" to me. That grayscale screen is death on typing for a while (like I said, I've tried), and its non-clamshell design makes it too big.

RE: Micro-notebook
Timothy Rapson @ 11/24/2002 7:06:41 PM #
I would have loved a product like the one you describe until I got FITALY on my NR70V. I don't know now if I will ever buy an external keyboard.

I think the Dana missed the mark by being a little too big and not having color. We'll see. Hope your predicted models does appear.

RE: Micro-notebook
quiklogin @ 11/25/2002 7:12:00 AM #
Let me say it again, more clearly:

I need a Palm unit with a *big* color screen in landscape format. Bigger than any current Palm has.

I also need a keyboard that is *part of* the unit.

In other words, a micro-notebook!

Your Dream Computer Has Already Been Released.
mashoutposse @ 11/25/2002 10:55:07 AM #
While the idea of a micro notebook is good one (and has been done), why would you 'limit' it to the PalmOS? Palm Desktop for Windows encapsulates practically every function of the average PalmOS PDA already, and most third party apps (if not all) are decidedly inferior to their PC counterparts. If it's for word processing, wouldn't a full featured application like MS Word work tons better? Don't forget that you would still be tethered to your desktop (hotsyncing, printing, etc.)

Sony has already made the computer that you're looking for... It's called the VAIO U3; it's a full featured micronotebook that runs Windows XP and all of your favorite desktop apps. It has a 6.4" LCD that displays at 1024x768 (for an AMAZING pixel density of 200dpi!!!), 256MB RAM, a 20GB hard drive, and a 933Mhz TCrusoe processor. It also has a PCMCIA slot, in case you decide to go wireless (or install any other PC card). It is currently a Japan-only product (they ALWAYS get the good stuff first ;), but it is no different from any other USA-spec Windows PC (except for the presence of some Japanese characters subtitled under the English ones). The best part -- it is no bigger than a DVD case. In fact, it is smaller than your Jornada in some dimensions:

Jornada: 7.4"(W) x 3.7"(L) x 1.3"(D)

Sony VAIO U3: 7.3"(W) x 5.5"(L) x 1.2"(D)

The VAIO can be had for a little over a grand. I highly doubt that the PalmOS notebook that you're suggesting would cost less than $800. Even then, the VAIO does so much more that the price premium is more than justified.

RE: Micro-notebook
Mandroid @ 11/25/2002 10:11:27 PM #
Where can the Vaio U3 be had for a little over a grand? It costs $1999 from Dynamism.com, for example: http://www.dynamism.com/u3/pricing.shtml

On eBay the pricing seems to range from $1600-1700.

I'd love to see where this can be had for only $1000, that would be quite appealing.

RE: Micro-notebook
quiklogin @ 11/26/2002 3:05:15 AM #
Ah, but there are more issues here.

1. My MS Word on the laptop really doesn't do anything for me that WordSmith doesn't also do (true!).

2. Palm (and the Jornada) has no boot time, while WinPC's are soooo slooooow...

3. PalmOS is infinitely more stable than WinXP (the OS on my laptop is XP, so I know).

4. I live in Norway, where computers are insanely expensive, at least the kind you describe here. So even if it ever got released here, I couldn't afford it.

5. What is the battery life of this thing? An hour? The Jornada is about 8-9 hours, I suspect a Palm micronotebook would be longer.

6. The jornada also has PCMCIA and CF, I'd expect a Palm micronotebook to have PCMCIA, SD, and maybe bluetooth (yes, I'm one of those nasty cell-phone hungry Euros)

RE: Micro-notebook
quiklogin @ 11/26/2002 3:17:43 AM #
Checked out the Sony...

8. It's too heavy at 1.8 pounds. The Jornada is 1.1, which is a kind of upper limit. I'd actually prefer it below 1 pound.


Anyhoo, the point is I don't want a fully featured PC, I want a simple machine for simple word processing (and some email/web browsing)! A machine for work, not play.

I don't think that would be as much as $800, unless Palm/Fujitsu/whoever got stupid and added a lot of bells and whistles.

RE: Micro-notebook
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:58:16 AM #
Thank you for making the case for it. You brought up the major points that cry out for such a device.

(And if it comes to pass, Gates & Co. will really be perplexed -- wondering why such a thing didn't work under WinCE 1.0...)

Well...
mashoutposse @ 11/26/2002 1:16:13 PM #
...it sounds to me like you're doing your best to justify NOT wanting the VAIO, but I'll tackle your issues point by point:

"1. My MS Word on the laptop really doesn't do anything for me that WordSmith doesn't also do (true!)."

...but MS Word is certainly superior, regardless of whether you use its extra features or not (which it most certainly does have -- to suggest otherwise is preposterous). Even if all things are equal, at least under MS Word you are working within the native environment for that file format -- no having to deal with conduits, lost formatting, or occasionally spotty translations. I don't see how this point can be argued in favor of Palm.


"2. Palm (and the Jornada) has no boot time, while WinPC's are soooo slooooow..."

Most modern laptops come with highly customizable power management features that allow the machine go into a PDA-like standby mode. The U3 is no different.


"3. PalmOS is infinitely more stable than WinXP (the OS on my laptop is XP, so I know)."

I have found Windows XP Professional to be pretty darn stable. I very rarely ever have to restart my computer due to a lockup or crash. You say yourself that you mainly use your Palm for word processing -- if you followed the same usage patterns with your laptop, I doubt it would ever crash, either. Anyway, my mileage definitely varied in this case.


"4. I live in Norway, where computers are insanely expensive, at least the kind you describe here. So even if it ever got released here, I couldn't afford it."

You can find the U3 model new for $1400US on eBay (look for the auctions of a seller with the handle 'yclub2000' -- email him directly for a quote).


"5. What is the battery life of this thing? An hour? The Jornada is about 8-9 hours, I suspect a Palm micronotebook would be longer."

About three to four hours. Keep in mind that the VAIO is powering a 933Mhz TCrusoe, while your HPC is running a 133Mhz SH3 Hitachi. I doubt a Palm micronotebook would be much longer -- heck, the Tungsten T is only managing 3.5 hours, according both Palm and PalmInfoCenter.


"6. The jornada also has PCMCIA and CF, I'd expect a Palm micronotebook to have PCMCIA, SD, and maybe bluetooth (yes, I'm one of those nasty cell-phone hungry Euros)"

This is the beauty of the U3 -- since it's a standard XP machine, you can buy any PCMCIA device on the market today without having to ask yourself, "Does this thing come with drivers to support my machine?" If I plug any garden variety Bluetooth/802.11b card into your suggested Palm micronotebook, will it work? Not unless there is software available specifically to allow it to work with a Palm. Sony regularly gets panned for releasing devices that don't conform to industry standards -- now that they have, are you suddenly going to determine that conformity isn't such a big deal any more?


"8. It's too heavy at 1.8 pounds. The Jornada is 1.1, which is a kind of upper limit. I'd actually prefer it below 1 pound."

Yet at the same time you want the following...

'I need a Palm unit with a *big* color screen in landscape format. Bigger than any current Palm has.

I also need a keyboard that is *part of* the unit.'

Now you're just nitpicking :) You obviously aren't looking for something pocketable, so what does a ounces matter?


"Anyhoo, the point is I don't want a fully featured PC, I want a simple machine for simple word processing (and some email/web browsing)! A machine for work, not play."

So, to break it down, PalmOS = work environment, and Windows XP Professional = play environment. Uh huh.

In case you didn't know, you can do everything that you can do on a Palm and more on a WinXP laptop. This is obviously not debatable. We're not talking about Pocket PC here. Wouldn't it be better to write MS Word documents in their native environment? Wouldn't browsing the web and checking your email be a much more pleasant experience using Outlook and IE, instead of the half baked PalmOS mail clients and web browsers? I don't know how you can say otherwise.

RE: Micro-notebook
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:47:28 PM #
Answers like that are very amusing. Person A says he doesn't want that and gives his reasons. Person B then says, No, your reasons are all hogwash and here are the real reasons you should consider. As if this was court!

RE: Micro-notebook
quiklogin @ 11/27/2002 2:38:38 AM #
Thanks Mike!
It's like I'm up against Microsoft itself:

"NO you don't want PalmOS! It's not a real computer! You need a Microsoft computer! You'd have to be a moron to choose anything else!"

I really don't want to justify my desire for the Palm micro-notebook any longer, but a final note before I'm outta this thread:

BLOAT!!!!

Bloat 1. The "MS Word superior to WordSmith" argument is once again the way that Microsoft crams lots of extra features not everybody wants into apps. I've used Word for *many* years, and NEVER use any of the features Word has that WordSmith doesn't. So why would I want the extra clutter and memory-hogging that comes with Word? What's so hard to understand about this?

BTW, if my dream unit had software like the Dana, you could also print from it, totally freeing it from the PC. I usually send documents by email, though, and only print every other full moon.

Bloat 2. The Jornada IS pocketable in my coat, which is what I want (not to have to carry an extra bag or something).
But it is old, technology has improved since then (especially battery technology in this issue), and I would expect a unit like the one I wish for to have the same *screen/keyboard size* but be *much lighter*. It could probably be made a bit slimmer, too.
Even if it's big, it's easier to carry around if it's light. 0.8 pounds does make a difference.

Oh, and I really wouldn't buy something at $1400 on eBay, which is in the US, and then have it shipped to Norway. First, there's the risk of buying from a stranger on eBay, halfway across the globe. Then there's the Norwegian import tax of 25%. Then there's the risk that it might be DOA or I might have other problems with it. How do I fix that when the seller and manufacturer is not represented here?

By the way, what happened to this U3 being only a grand??

RE: Micro-notebook
mashoutposse @ 11/27/2002 3:54:53 PM #
mikecane:

"Answers like that are very amusing. Person A says he doesn't want that and gives his reasons. Person B then says, No, your reasons are all hogwash and here are the real reasons you should consider. As if this was court!"

This is a discussion forum. If I come in here and say, "I don't like Palm PDAs because all of them have black and white screens, and all they can do is manage your addresses and phone numbers," I would expect people to respect my opinion, while at the same time correcting the glaring inaccuracies of the 'facts' I presented. That's the only effective way to alter one's opinion -- by rationally discussing the merits of the foundation used to justify that opinion. I respected quiklogin's opinion; I corrected quiklogin's mistakes. If he is willing to accept my corrections and not succumb to PalmOS bias, maybe his opinion may change. That's how most adults conduct discussions amongst themselves.

Reading his latest post, it seems that he is continuing along the "I don't like the VAIO U3 because of [insert various inaccuracies here]," so it apears to be a lost cause.

RE: Micro-notebook
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:17:12 PM #
Well, you have to also allow for people's tastes. I know one person who can't understand why someone would want a separate PDA and a cellphone when there are now PPCs that combine both. In my case, I can't understand why someone would want, say, a 27" TV with a *built-in* VCR or DVD player. MTBF and all that...

RE: Micro-notebook
Timothy Rapson @ 11/27/2002 7:49:57 PM #
I have looked for these for a long time. The Vaio isn't it. No instant boot. I have heard from some that the new suspend feature in some sub-notebooks can let you get to work in 3 seconds, but I simply would not trust that to work for long. Once you add programs and leave them running or the OS decides to do something and was not expecting the suspend feature to be there, it will all slow down. XP OS is not set up to be an instant on PDA OS.

Something like the Dana in a smaller case (6 inches by 10 inches like the Laser PC7 or even smaller like the Poquet PC was 10 years ago, 1 inch by 10 inches by 4 inches, just large enough for a touch typable keyboard. But, I really think that if they can do a Dana for $400, they could add that color screen and make it in the jacket pocketable form factor for $500-600. The thing would have the same number of parts as a Zaurus C700 or whatever it is that Sharp is releasing next quarter with the swivel VGA screen for about $500.

RE: Micro-notebook
Maniac @ 11/28/2002 9:41:42 PM #
Use Win2K/XP's hybernation feature then... It basically writes memory's data into an image file, and then simply read that file and paste it to memory. Very quick, and does not need any special hardware to work.

RE: Micro-notebook
Fly-By-Night @ 11/29/2002 5:53:09 AM #
If the Sony U3 isn't your cup of tea; how about the Vaio C series. It's very small, only weighing 1kg; has built in Bluetooth (for us Euro's!), a full keyboard, 1024x480 colour display; AND a natty built in web cam. It's also a bit cheaper than the U3 at around £1500 (17000 Kroner).

Can't help you much with the bloat, or Win XP; but as far as sub-sub-notebooks go, it's the best I've used. The use of a Cruseo CPU means battery life is very good (not as good as a Palm obviously). Until your dream device comes along, I suspect the Vaio C might be your best compromise (and the web cam is cool!).

FBN

2002 Predictions I wish I hadn't written.

Timothy Rapson @ 11/24/2002 7:19:25 PM #
My predictions from November of 2001 for the year now ending:


My predictions for 2002

Sub $100 PDAs Palm 125s will sell for $99 by the end of 2002. They will be Palms only model at the low end. Other manufacturers from Korea and such will license the Palm OS and sell a very few models at $39.99 to $99.99.

Sub $200 PDAs.
Palm, Sony, Handspring. and Acer will all offer color models with low resolution, but 65k color based on the old Motorola 33 MZ dragonball.

Sub $300 PDAs.
This will be the hottest market of all. Sony T615C will lead the pack. Mono Treos, Old Palm M500s and M525s (a 505 with slightly better screen lighting but no 320 by 320 graphics). At least one PPC manufacturer will sell at this point with non-X-Scale processor, probably the Compaq 3850.

Sub $400 PDAs

Sharp Zaurus, new Sony T715C, Compaq blue tooth dual slot model, Compaq phone, Treo OLED color phone, all the rest of the PPCs selling very poorly.


The wild card of 2002 will be the Zaurus. Either it will squash both Palm and PPC or it will bomb. 2002 will be war of total war with no survivors. Either PPC will win or retreat to the phone market. Either Zaurus will win or be gone. Either Palm will ship innovative new OS 4.1 products and a nice OS 5 or it it will be gone and Sony, Handspring, and Handera with it.


There will be four main markets by the end of the year,
1.Laptop replacement PDAs (the PPCs, Zaurus, Sony high end, and hopefully Handera and Palm models.)
2.Mini PDAs (M500/505, Edge (probably gone, though) T415/615),
3.PDA phones Treo, Stinger, Zaurus phone, Nokia 6560s, and a flurry of others.
4. Work PDAs, both color and mono for $300 and less with all the features of current models plus, slots, hi-resollution color, 16 or more meg memory for Palm OS 64 for PPC. Right down to the Palm 125, the only model now available that will still be selling next Christmas

Looks like a was about completely wrong on every count!

Who could have predicted that there would be four PPC models nearly as small as the smallest Palms and/or cheaper than any of the color Palm OS models (the Toshiba e330, HP h1910, ViewSonic, Zayo....and for cheap color--the Dell Axim for $175 after rebates and discounts.) Unbelievable.

Of course, none of this has really come to final resting place in the market yet. I thought something would be settled by now. Nothing is.

Boy did I whiff one into the rough.

RE: 2002 Predictions I wish I hadn't written.
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:17:10 PM #
>>The wild card of 2002 will be the Zaurus. Either it will squash both Palm and PPC or it will bomb.

Have you investigated the Z? Hardly any software. And those who own it are much more interested in the Linux-in-your-pocket aspect than the PDA aspect. And HancomWord (the bundled WP) offers even less than PocketWord on the PPC.

Nice hardware, though...

RE: 2002 Predictions I wish I hadn't written.
ska @ 11/25/2002 12:26:17 PM #
The handcom office package is pretty impressive actually, definitely outdo Palm and PPC. I downloaded the manual. What kills Zaurus, beside so few title is also the sync apps. It doesn't work very well with windows desktop.
RE: 2002 Predictions I wish I hadn't written.
hotpaw4 @ 11/25/2002 8:11:02 PM #
>The wild card of 2002 will be the Zaurus

My tea leaves say that the Zaurus will sell, but in about the same percentage as linux desktops (e.g. only a few percent of the market).


RE: 2002 Predictions I wish I hadn't written.
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 12:00:03 PM #
>>The handcom office package is pretty impressive actually, definitely outdo Palm and PPC.

That is the *desktop* version. Get to a store and play with the stuff that's actually on the Z. It's not any more impressive (in fact, in many ways, it is less!) than PWord on PPC. (I have no idea what improvements, if any, might be in the new SL-5600.)

And then go ask around and ask how fonts can be added to the Z...

Bluetooth stupid?

Maniac @ 11/25/2002 12:54:09 AM #
I wonder if you have really been keeping up the difference between Bluetooth and 802.11b? Even notebooks have switches to turn off power to 802.11b, not just electronic switches, but *REAL* hardware ones. 802.11b can be a REAL DRAIN on notebook's battery, what will it do to your PDA? I guess making your PalmOS machine's battery last shorter than a WinCE machine is a priority for you.

As for cell crazy, do you always stay in 802.11b covered areas? on the other hand, I always stay in GPRS covered area, and my T39mc's bluetooth feature is ready to connect anytime. Hell, I can't get out of the GPRS covered area without wasting a lot of gas.

IMO, Bluetooth IS the way to go, 802.11b is nice, but it is way too power hungry to have it built-in to PDA, Bluetooth is much more useful here.

RE: Bluetooth stupid?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:18:53 PM #
Why do you think I expect WiFi to be "on" all the time? Do you have BT on all the time? Doesn't that add to a TT's battery drain?

I don't need total area coverage for my WiFi. NYC is concentrated enough with enough free hotspots for me to be satisfied.

Hey, I'd be satisfied if that rumored 802.11b SD card comes out.

RE: Bluetooth stupid?
Maniac @ 11/25/2002 12:28:30 PM #
Well, I do have bluetooth on all the time on my T39mc as well as my HBH-30 headset. My headset lasts 100 hours on stand-by, and my cellphone lasts about 60 hours with BT on. Very useable. And if I uses T68, the bluetooth standby time is even longer due to even more efficient design. Bluetooth module can be done so that it cause extremely low drain during the idle time. T68 from Ericsson is one nice example.

No, I won't buy a Tungsten T, missing that stinking jog dial meant a lot to me. Too bad no one other than Sony is making REAL scrolling wheel on their PDA, they only put those wheel that you pull and hold on their PDA.

As for voice quality, mine sounds crystal clear. GSM with Enhanced Full Rate encoding almost always do that. Or were you stuck with CDMA/TDMA service before? Or even AMPS?

RE: Bluetooth stupid?
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 12:02:22 PM #
Thanks for that additional info.

Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @ 11

iain.collins @ 11/25/2002 8:12:41 PM #
PIC hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News at 11

Of course BlueTooth and 802.11 are entirely different things and Bluetooth represents a significant paradigm shift way beyond the simple idea of 'networking, but without wires'. And in fact the labels of which one is 'smart' and which one is 'dumb' - as applied by PIC - should be reversed.

Regarding this article as whole:

Mike Cane is poor excuse for hack. As a regular reader, I can say hand on heart that most PIC posters are able to write better and more insightful articles than this. Even Usenet trolls and Slashdot trolls have penned more accurate predictions.

But how many of these predictions come true is not the most important thing (even the best and most informed hack makes mistakes and predictions they live to regret!) - what makes this poor journalism is the method at which these conclusions were reached. The sole basis for the predictions in this article are the personal biases and desires of the author, with scan regard for the facts and what present evidence suggests is likely to happen - it's Gonzo Journalism, but without the drugs.

To anyone who thinks this article is good journalism or in any way insightful (there seem to be a handful out their with that opinion) I'd say (a) never trade stocks (your not astute enough) and (b) try reading more and challenging yourself and perhaps you'll discover the difference between merely 'an article' and 'a good and insightful article'. Digesting 'The Economist' would be a good start, as would be watching less American efforts at televised journalism (it's useful to know what everyone else is watching, but too much of it warps your perceptions).

RE: Sony longer offering Memory Stick based media, no this will not happen, this is not what the current evidence suggest is likely. In Sony's eyes, there is much more at stake than just their ability to push a particular media storage format at consumers. The Memory Stick format has turned into an internal political matter and is far more than a simple attempt at selling storage media. This is a good example of confusing what we'd LIKE to see happen with what the evidence suggest is going to ACTUALLY happen.

RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @
iain.collins @ 11/25/2002 9:56:27 PM #
Oh and for the record, no I don't have anything personal against Mike (apart from thinking his predictions are as reliable as a Magic 8 Ball's :), but if people will insist on lurking in duck ponds and making quacking noises during hunting season then I consider them fair game (as I am for taking the bait..).

Now ssshh, I'm hunting contriwbuters....

;)

RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @ 11
Fly-By-Night @ 11/26/2002 7:09:08 AM #
"Gonzo Journalism, but without the drugs."

...or the humour.

FBN

RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @ 11
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 12:03:23 PM #
>>The sole basis for the predictions in this article are the personal biases and desires of the author

-- a hubristic diatribe of diarhhea from someone who obviously thinks he has high reading comprehension -- and yet MISSES the slug that says **OPINION**.

RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @
iain.collins @ 11/27/2002 9:35:22 AM #
If it's a prediction then it is what you believe will come to pass. The fact that it is also an opinion is entirely redundant as in the given context it could not be anything interpreted as anything other than an opinion. Because you felt the need to point out the obvious indicates to me that you didn't really grasp that.

This kind of redundancy in the English language is very common an very difficult to avoid, but this particular example has some greater significance: Hiding behind the fact that a unfounded view or set of beliefs is 'an opinion' is a common tactic used by people who don't understand the different meanings of the word 'opinion'. This leads the misunderstanding many people have that just because they have 'an opinion' it means they are somehow granted immunity for it being wrong. They are not.

I suggest you consider, and make it clear to the readership, how you like this article to interpreted as.

i) It could be primarily a prediction, in which case you are stating what you actually think will come to pass. This is how the article is currently portrayed.

or

ii) It could be primarily an opinion piece, i.e. things you would wish to see happen. This is what you seem to be indicating the article is in your reply to me.

It cannot be primarily a prediction and primarily an opinion piece, could you make it clear which it is?


RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @ 11
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:20:02 PM #
>>It cannot be primarily a prediction and primarily an opinion piece, could you make it clear which it is?

No. I thought you Brits liked such ambiguity... (it drives us Americans nuts).

RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @ 11
Timothy Rapson @ 11/27/2002 8:02:21 PM #
If the chief purpose was to spur discussion rather that predict OR offer opinion, then he has at least succeeded at that.

I don't expect to read the Consumer Report or The Economist when I log on to PIC. This is not the Gartner Group (though I would like to for once see them have the guts to repost their market predictions when they get 2.5 out of 10 right!)

This is why I like these peices.


RE: Hack fails to understand purpose of BlueTooth - News @
iain.collins @ 12/3/2002 10:20:09 AM #
>> No. I thought you Brits liked such ambiguity...

Usually only if we get to use it to make us seem superior and/or if it gives us a chance to be snooty and look down on on outsiders who aren't in on the joke (good example of this: 'Mornington Crescent').

As for Editors....I know they all love these kinds of articles because they equate to much publicity and discussion and make the site more visible. Personally this drives me nuts, but PIC's still good so I'm still reading. I stopped reading MacSlash because it did all together to much of it (I think once in a while is okay, but too often can damage the sites reputation in the eyes of the readership).

"Palm chooses Web Browser Pro over PalmSource's Web browser"

ThomasBrady @ 11/26/2002 1:28:15 AM #
What?

Web Browser Pro IS PalmSource's Web browser . . . and the URL that you linked that sentence to describes that fact! What did you mean to say? Was there another Web browser from PalmSource that didn't use NetFront code or something?

RE:
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 12:07:32 PM #
"WebBrowser Pro - a proxy-based solution"

-- http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=4490

AFAIK, this is quite different than the browser that is being shipped with the CLIE NXes, which is not proxy-based.

Like a diabetic needs insulin

Mark Wilden @ 11/26/2002 11:55:38 AM #
Actually, the great majority of diabetics do not use insulin. These have Type II diabetes, which usually shows up later in life. Type II diabetes is a disease where the body's insulin isn't used efficiently.

Type I diabetics, on the other hand, do not produce any insulin at all, and those are the ones that need to inject it.

RE: Like a diabetic needs insulin
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 12:11:15 PM #
-- how about, "like a headache needs an aspirin"?

RE: Like a diabetic needs insulin
Fly-By-Night @ 11/27/2002 5:33:14 AM #
That can be bad for the stomach, and should not be used on under 16s. Try Paracetamol or Ibuprofen instead!

FBN

RE: Like a diabetic needs insulin
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:18:28 PM #
Take aspirin with large amount of water to avoid stomach problem. Or take other pain medicine that doesn't upset your stomach, but upsets your liver instead.

:)

A few prediction of my own...

Maniac @ 11/26/2002 3:32:02 PM #
Well, since everyone is posting their own prediction, I guess I'll give it a shot... They will be in no perticular order, I just come up with them as I goes.


1. Sony coming out with a version of NX70/NX60 that have bluetooth built-in, 802.11(?) type wireless lan still optional on a CF card.

2. Hacking community of Japan and US (together or otherwise) comes up with ways of running everything except chainsaws from NX series' CF slot via their own custom driver. (well, this is my hope anyways)

3. More handheld maker have jog dial type control interface installed in their PDA device. However, none likely will work like the way the mouse wheel scrolls. (The way that's done on Sony's)

4. Handera's presence in end user market continued to shrink. Their butt ugly and soft shelled HandEra 330 (I have several HandEra lover agreeing with me on that) will likely only be seen on their web site and nowhere else. They were so ahead with TRGPro, hardware AND software. And I *WAS* a proud owner of TRGPro. Then PEG-S300 comes alone beats hands down, too bad...

5. Every PalmOS PDA maker starts to jump into the ARM club with PalmOS 5. (Duh) Sony coming out with stiff metal clad T series model running PalmOS5 and a 320x480 screen (Virtual Graffiti!!!).

6. Light dawns on a few of those manufacturers and they started to have bluetooth intergrated into their PDAs.

7. Light dawns on Handspring that 160x160 is too small to display detailed info on screen. Prism was ahead of the time like TRGPro, but that seems to be a freak accident for them as they never seems to be ahead in anything afterwards.

Well, that's about it that I can come up off the top of my head...

RE: A few prediction of my own...
djh @ 11/26/2002 5:27:48 PM #
I hope some of your predictions come true Maniac.

Especially the one about built in BT on the Sony NX series. Had they launched NX with the BT I would have one by now.

As it is, it looks as though the TT will end up being the replacement for my trusty old Palm Vx. It's odd, because for the last couple of years I thought Sony had everything going right and Palm had lost it. Now I find that Palm meets my needs and Sony doesn't.

So my own prediction (well wish really) is NX70V with built-in Bluetooth and a real CF slot (can dump the MS slot for all I care) in Q1 2003!!

Cheers!!

RE: A few prediction of my own...
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 5:54:03 PM #
Well, what if Sony released the Bluetooth MStick (or InfoStick) here? Would that do?

RE: A few prediction of my own...
djh @ 11/26/2002 7:35:10 PM #
Mike, yes of course it would help.

Only problem is that the NX would be starting to get VERY expensive. If the price of NX70 + BT MS was about the same as the NX70 alone, it would be a super product.

As much as I don't want to go PPC, a Dell Axim with SD BT card is a very hard to beat package.

Dammit! I wish someone would make exactly what I want.

Cheers!!

RE: A few prediction of my own...
kidA @ 11/26/2002 10:56:20 PM #
sorry, djh, the Axim SS slot does not support SDIO, so the BT SD card won't work. pretty disappointing i know.

RE: A few prediction of my own...
Fly-By-Night @ 11/27/2002 5:35:55 AM #
BT MemoryStick uses up precious storage space, and is bloody expensive.

I hope to see more manufacturers putting Palm D-Pads in their PDAs. I too am waiting for a VG T series with built in BT and OS5 flashable to OS6.

FBN

RE: A few prediction of my own...
iain.collins @ 11/27/2002 10:31:52 AM #
I don't think those predictions are earth shattering (that's not indented as dig) but I think they are all very likely.

I would not be surpised if all of them came to pass in the next 12 months.

RE: A few prediction of my own...
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:20:48 PM #
Well, IMHO even if I have the option to get BT MS + NX70 at a good price, I'll still hold it off.

The reason is simple, I don't want to use up a slot that could be better used for storage. When I plug in my 64MB MS, I consider that slot sealed until further notice.

Not to mention, when they introduced INTERGRATED devices, it is more often a LOT cheaper than having it in a seprate form. BT module can and HAVE costed MORE than what I paid for my BT enabled cellphone. My computer's motherboard for example, if I had to get SATA, IEEE 1394, USB 2.0 on seperate cards, I'll have to pay at least another $100USD for it. And that's for a $130USD motherboard.

I kinda see that NX70 drop in price (say $50 ~ 100 USD) when the NX70BT comes out and replace it. My guess, anyways. If it is true, then I might need to survive with meager budgets for a while. :) Well, I would have NX70 with BT to take my mind off less important things, like food for example. :)

As my prediction being likely, well... this is a prediction as well as what I hope and think will come up soon. We are not posting Educated Wild-A** Guess, are we? :)

RE: A few prediction of my own...
robrecht @ 11/27/2002 12:23:34 PM #
These are realistic predictions. Iain, I have to admire your efforts to deal logically with the Rush Limbaugh of PDAs. You're a better man tham me!

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: A few prediction of my own...
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:21:57 PM #
>>I have to admire your efforts to deal logically with the Rush Limbaugh of PDAs

-- now wait one minute there. If I am insulted by *anything* someone has written, it's *that*. Don't *ever* compare me to that bag of wind. I don't deal in cant or cliche or shill someone else's agenda (be it political or a PDA manufacturer/licenser).

There's only one prediction worth making

mikeymikey @ 11/28/2002 2:35:01 PM #
With sales of the Treo yet to reach 2000 units, Handspring are doomed...

...unless they pull their finger out their butt and make a palm compatible with the Sony P800

RE: There's only one prediction worth making
Maniac @ 11/28/2002 3:58:18 PM #
Comparable you mean?

RE: There's only one prediction worth making
mikeymikey @ 11/30/2002 6:11:35 AM #
No compatible, as in is running the same software
RE: There's only one prediction worth making
Maniac @ 12/1/2002 6:32:40 AM #
P800 Runs Symbian OS if I'm not mistaken... instead of making PalmOS run Symbian, why not just make a native Symbian machine? If they actually follow that suggestion, I'd think that would be kinda counterproductive...

RE: There's only one prediction worth making
mikeymikey @ 12/1/2002 5:58:07 PM #
Good idea, Handspring would do really well if they make a symbian machine I think

RE: There's only one prediction worth making
quengho @ 1/8/2003 11:44:06 AM #
Handspring? Symbian?

They'd be nuts to jump ship again, instead of reevaluating their existing products.

But then that'd fit right in with the rest of their corporate ADHD.

Thanks, all

mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:25:19 AM #
It's been a very interesting exchange. If I do it against next year, I'll be sure to mention the bashing I took over BT.

It's strange that no PPC zealots showed up to rant...

Sony Drops Memory Stick

Gremmie @ 12/20/2002 10:45:39 AM #
"2) Sony Drops Memory Stick"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

RE: Sony Drops Memory Stick
Timothy Rapson @ 12/31/2002 8:48:56 PM #
Actually, remarkably, this has already been confirmed by Sony. At CES in less than two weeks, Sony will reveal Memory Stick+ (or whatever they are going to call it). Capacities of 256-1gig right away. Speed increases. And new Duo.

Well, maybe it won't *exactly* be dropping Memory Stick.

Is it the right way to go?

LuisPeres @ 12/28/2002 3:01:06 AM #
A new palm, a new OS and suddenly lets go shopping once more all the software ... or most of it :(

My palm TUNGSTEN is my last toy.
Much prettier then 515, very cool looking, smaller and for sure with some problems solved (my old 515 was so slow to check any info when I was using my 64MB card, thanks to the new processor)but how about the rest? Humm not so nice!

So far I just keep receiving the message: LauncherMain.c Line:9128, could not
complete the operation because system is out of dynamic memory. ...
reset

Well, my prompt contact with palm was obvious! The problem was totally new for me since in my 3 years as a palm user, never got such message.

The answer was excellent! One day later my mail box had the reply to my contact. Resuming ... soft reset or hard reset. One of them should be enough good to solve it. The main reason was the old software, not appropriate to be used with the new palm.

Problem solved ... delete it all and install just the new sofware provided by palm. A good collection indeed:)

Well, although not so happy to see my software just vannished so easy, what else could I do?

Still workable anyway.
The problem just came today once more. A new bug and the same message ... (very annoying by the way) this time not even with soft and reset worked. My palm is recharging again and I am not so happy with what is happening to me. Am I the only one?

Now I look a bit to the past. Is it that the spirit of freedom that I always liked in palm letting us have a clean system without bugs and stupid messagesis gone?

I really hope not, I wanna believe that is just a new step for better applications and improved OS.

Palms: tungsten; 515; 3C

RE: Is it the right way to go?
james_sorenson @ 12/31/2002 12:06:31 PM #
The Tungsten|T is basically version 1.0. The fact that any of the old stuff works on the new hardware is impressive. Pam can only guarantee software that fits in one of the following:
1: Made for Palm OS5.
2: Tested by the developer on Palm OS5.
3: At least follows Palms strict guidelines for proper coding (i.e., does not raise ANY alert in the Palm debugger).

Sadly, many of the high-end programs for Palm use some unsupported "trick" to boost performance or tweak the interface. Palm can't take all of these into account. Now, by next year, I'm betting most of this software will have been updated, and you'll be able to use your favorite apps again.

The price you pay for being an early adopter.


-------
James Sorenson

RE: Is it the right way to go?
philipp @ 2/2/2003 7:38:11 PM #
Hiya,

I had the same problem with my Tungsten. You don't need to delete everything, just try and reduce the number of databases on your Palm. I deleted my numerous Metro databases (hey I didn't need them anyway), which took me to about 80 databases. It's working fine now.

Regards,

Philip.

RE: Is it the right way to go?
piccini @ 3/1/2003 12:21:34 PM #
Ciao,

I have the same problem. Seems to be about having more than 343 files (apps and databases) on main memory. Any news about a solution from Palm?
Thanks,

Enough of this guy!

mikecane @ 12/31/2002 4:03:49 PM #
Geez, it was bad enough when we had to put up with him two months ago. Now you inflict him on us AGAIN?!

Hell, I didn't even mention GARMIN, for crying out loud!

Dell

mclaughlinc @ 12/31/2002 4:18:35 PM #
Good read although your Dell predictions are wrong, I believe. Dell is aligned with MS. They (Dell) have a big commitment to MS. I do business with Dell and it is very apparent the strong relationship between the companies.

Just my 2 cents

RE: Dell
Timothy Rapson @ 12/31/2002 8:59:03 PM #
Good predictions, but Dell has a great relationship with Hewlett Packard. They have sold their printers and made money selling them for a long time. Dell is not going to.....oops, they dropped HP like a spoiled fish head so they could make and sell their own printers.

We'll see. I would sure like to see Palm OS 5 Axims.

Tablet Clie would be a failure with Palm OS

mj6798 @ 1/2/2003 3:57:25 AM #
Palm OS simply isn't up to handling resolutions much beyond 320x480. Why? Because unlike other window systems, Palm OS has almost no support for dynamically adapting GUIs to different sized screens.


Sharp and Microsoft, of course, are up to it, and they have released such handhelds. Trouble is, even if you can make it work, nobody wants them: they are too big to fit into your pocket, and too small to use as laptops.

RE: Tablet Clie would be a failure with Palm OS
amike @ 1/2/2003 11:31:31 AM #
Already said for ...
mp3
video
VFS
games
ARM processors
...
but much more for smartphone

What have we seen ? New gateways let us get these functionnality.
Oh, yes, not so perfectly than on others OS, but enough to keep the best of PalmOS !

RE: Tablet Clie would be a failure with Palm OS
quengho @ 1/8/2003 11:46:14 AM #
PalmOS might not be able to dunamically adapt the GUI to new resolutions, but properly written PalmOS applications are able to statically adapt to any resolution by changing the form resources.

All Sony would need to do for most apps would be to trap the form accesses and provide an updated set of forms for the resolution they need. The form layouts could be automatically generated for most apps, with an editor mode available for touchups.

For apps that go straight to the hardware, give them a dummy frame buffer and blit them to a window, and then run DAs or other plugins around them. It might even be worthwhile to run standard apps framed like that.

My predictions are quite different

MarcTGFG @ 1/2/2003 11:55:22 AM #
1. 2003 will be the year of the connected organizer. The vast majority of handheld devices released will have some sort of connectivity. Most will have "stupid" Bluetooth for us europeans ;-) many will have WiFi or GPRS or CDMA(2000/1EVO).

2. Number of Palm OS licencees is going to stagnate. Handspring will be aquired by a bigger company, but not Palm SG!

3. Number of Pocket PC licensees is going to explode the way it happened in the PC market. Many vendors will try to differentiate through price, some will go the high end route with lots of features. Dell will become market share leader in Pocket PC country only six months after entering the pda market. HP will stay a comfortable second. Towards the end of 2003 some of the OEMs will leave the field again.

4. Market shares of Palm OS and Windows CE will remain pretty stable, while Pocket PCs will grow faster, because of much improved (smaller!) size and low prices. Sharp will play no major role with its Linux OS. Symbian will be the big winner in 2003 with new devices by Nokia, Samsung, Panasonic and others.

5. Palm OS devices will catch on in functionality but the media will call it "a late me too". Underperforming Pocket PCs with XScale processors will sell well because consumers believe in the megahertz myth (400 is better than 175!).

6. Palm OS 6 will be late, I agree and that will hurt Palm SG sales because of lack of true multitasking. The next Windows CE incarnation will be late too. Major innovations are full vga resolution and landscape mode support and a somewhat better performance along with updated drivers and APIs. Nothing to have a big impact on the market.

7. 2003 will be the the year of new emerging technologies. Before years end we will see OLED displays in phones, maybe pdas. We might see prototypes ot fuel cell powered devices. We will see first built in megapixel cameras in pdas and all that in even smaller form factors.

8. Palm SG will be not be an independant company any more. That might be a little risky to guess... Sony will be the clear market share leader in Palm OS country!!!

9. The era of pda is nearing the end of its natural life cycle. Phones will continue to take over functions, "traditionally" performed by pdas. PDA will still serve a big enough niche market, like tablet PCs.

10. There will be peaceful coexistence of MemorySticks, SecureDigital- and CompactFlash cards for at least 5 more years. Yet, CF and SmartMedia will slowly decline, while SD and MS will grow even faster. XD cards will only become popular in the arena of digital cameras. No, DataPlay will not come alive again, stop dreaming!

11. Microsoft will make the sourcecode of Windows CE (almost) completely public to appease the US and EU authorities, while pushing the platform with assisted advertising in major publications and the general media. That may be postponed until the end of its legal struggle with the remaining state governments. MS will also leverage its software knowhow to pocket pcs by creating an office suite for Windows CE that puts the competition (on all handhelds!) to shame. Its new (actually old) slogan: Its the software that counts.

12. MS Smartphone will be a total flop!!! Market share < 2% by the end of 2003.

13. Mike Cane will have a sad christmas, having to eat his own words after a year that didnt follow his predictions at all ;-) Hey, cheer up!

I bet i will be right on at least 6 of my predictions.

RE: My predictions are quite different
brick @ 1/3/2003 12:01:33 AM #
Funny. I think I agree with you totally!!

RE: My predictions are quite different
jpthe2nd @ 1/4/2003 2:05:05 AM #
just a few quick things:

1. nice job Mike - your last years' predictions were just fine... this years' are a little tougher to swallow...

2. there are many new emerging technologies, but have you noticed how long it takes for them to actually get rolled out? months?? by Q3, maybe there will finally be a good PDA phone ;) hee hee....

3. SYMBIAN could become king with some work. 7.0 is heads above any other OS i have seen. What SYMBIAN needs is some software to read other applications (someone already mentioned this in a different way). This would allow for the 'fan base' to grow into markets which are already used to the other OSs.

4. the tablet PC will soon replace the laptop. who will need a laptop??

5. integrated wireless is king. bluetooth is great for mobile users... WiFi is great for others... WiFi SUCKS battery life worse than anything i have ever seen outside a PCMCIA card. hee hee.

6. CF cards will soon be GONE outside storage (microdrives). SD/IO will take over!

7. celphone providers are going to need to pay NOKIA and Sony Ericsson a whole lot of money so that they will make phones compatible for CDMA. Gadget hungry folks aren't going to last long on their stupid Sprint plans. GSM is hot in the USA finally...

8. whoever mentioned that the Tunsten-W will flop like the Treos wasn't thinking. the Tungsten-W will have GPRS and will be expandable... also showing off a brand new browser. THIS DEVICE will rule and start new rules for gadget makers.

9. memorystick.... good job Sony :). the P800 has a duo slot... thank you for paving the way!!!

10. if only Nokia had made a 9290 with GPRS and expandability and bluetooth, they would have been heads over Sony Ericsson's p800 model.

God bless you all :)

Ave Maria My Homeys
matty

p.s. i don't actually have the Palm Tungsten W yet :).

RE: My predictions are quite different
quengho @ 1/8/2003 11:55:48 AM #
1. I think Bluetooth will become quite common, and by the end of the year every new organiser over about $200 will have it.

2. PalmOS is going to show up in more embedded boxes like the Garmin and the Fossil watch, not because it's such a marvelous OS, but because it's lightweight and has lots of apps. OS 4 will not go away, and new devices with OS 4 will continue to show up throughout the year.

3. That one already happened, and most of the licensees have dropped out of the market. The Pocket PC doesn't have enough room to differentiate, especially at the low end, and the iPaq has the high-end gadget-geek market locked up.

4. For organisers, PalmOS will continue to have 75% to 85% of the US retail market, and Windows CE (including PPC) most of the rest... just as they have for the past, what, five years...

6. They don't need "true multitasking", they just need to improve networking to allow for background downloads of web pages... because that's the only thing most people do that they're likely to notice the lack of multitasking for.

9. I've had a PDA/Phone. I'm back to a PDA+Phone again. It's *not* clear that integrating the two is a win.

11. What have you been smoking?



RE: My predictions are quite different
mikecane @ 4/23/2003 8:44:09 AM #
"11. Microsoft will make the sourcecode of Windows CE (almost) completely public to appease the US and EU authorities"

-- damn. That's happened!

Symbian persepctive

Rafe @ 1/4/2003 8:09:27 AM #
First I should say that I thought some of your predictions were spot on. The one about Symbian was dodgy though in my opinion. I should state at this point I am a Symbian fan and runa Symbian related website...

You talk about a perfect mobile OS - I actually think what you describe bares a very close relation Symbian OS 7. With a new OS in development from Symbian I am confident this will be built on. Dont know where Symbian OS 8 will make it out the door this year in consumer devices (probably not would be my guess), but currentyl Symbian OS 7 is a logn way ahead. However I do think that a point about distinction between categories needs to be made. Symbian is and will to a large extent remain a mobile phone focused OS. Palm and to an extent i think Smartphone 2002 comes from the other end - i.e. from the PDA end.

There's a difference in philosophies and ways of doing things if you ask me. Symbian OS devices (currently Nokia 9210 /9290, Nokia 7650, SE P800, Nokia 3650, Fujitsu Device, and forthcoming N-Gage) are going to better phones partly because they have the established manufacturers experience and partly because of the OS.

The thing is a primary function (for most people) of a Smartphone is still going to be using it as a phone - that is the killer app of a smartphone.

Symbian sucess will be clearly marked in Sales. Prediction for Series 60 Devices (one UI catgeory of Symbian - a Nokia one as it happens) sales are 10 millions and thats the low end figure. The 7650 sold 2 million units in around 4-5- months. Nots ure how that compares to Palm / PDA sales in Europe but I think it more than the competition combined. If you add on other device catgeories and look worldwide then I think we could see 20 million Symbian OS units sold. I'm fairly sure that outdoes the entire PDA market, and that brings me to my final point. Smartphones of whatever type are going to be a far bigger market than PDA's the volumes wont stand comparison (much as mobile phones as PDA's are now). Its not going to be the same type of person who makes up the majority of smartphoen users - there'll be a lot getting one cause they want a nice phone - unlike PDA users who remain at the top of the curve in terms of user sophistication. Thats why Symbian will become very big, and I think Symbian is in by far the best position in Smartphone terms - it has the established manufacturers, it has the best OS and it already has Europe.

Actually one more point people talk about the integration of Smartphones and PDA's - yes this wil happen. Smartphones have basic PIM functioanlity built in (look at the 7650), but a market will remain for PDA only devices - however it will be squeezed. The P800 represent a big threat in this area, device like it are called Palm-killers for good reason. I think they'll squeeze rather than kill though.

When Symbian move into the US market (3650 and P800 are triband) i think it will make a major splash - that will be the story of the year.

As an aside your prediction about the Sony Gaming Device is interesting. Nokia have already done this with the S60 / Symbian powered N-Gage and your right Sony may well follow suit, but might do it with Symbian (a more poerful OS that currently available PalmOS ad likely ot remain that way - ok contensious on a Palm site I know).

Anyway I hope I haven't upset anyone with this post. I mean to give a different perspective as both a European who seen Symbian in operation and as a pro-Symbianite!

More Symbian info:
http://www.symbian.com
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com (my site)
http://www.my-symbian.info

RE: Symbian persepctive
mikecane @ 1/5/2003 4:26:01 PM #
"As an aside your prediction about the Sony Gaming Device is interesting."

-- not my prediction. Foo's. (Who, I see, is touting a different list elsewhere. Ahem!)

Hey, Foo...

quengho @ 1/8/2003 12:07:38 PM #
This is Argent from Brighthand. I couldn't get Argent for my handle here because PIC never sent my response letter and that handle's now owned by a zombie...

I didn't notice how old this thread was, and posted my reply to your message... and didn't realise it'd show up on page 2.

Mike Cane

legodude522 @ 6/23/2005 1:31:26 PM #
HAHA! Mike Cane was professional at one time.

Palm m125 December 25, 2003 to March 24 2004 > palmOne Zire 71 March 24, 2004 to March 31, 2005. Tapwave Zodiac 1 April 18, 2005 to present.
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