Comments on: Opinion: Mike Cane's 2003 Palm OS Predictions

Fair enough. But if Sony were going to do a keyboardless N-series, wouldn't they have done so by now? They're on a three-month product cycle, it seems. Palm has already said they intend to go after BT and WiFi markets. We'll see.

How long have you been reading PIC dude?

>>"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

>>2 long. And Dude?

... waaay too long.

Wow, I'm really hurt by some nitwit whose profile is set up to link "my homepage" to his own PIC profile.

Hey, you started being smarmy. Go re-read your drivel. And change your handle, unless the "dangel" is really "dangle."

Don't mind me. I get cranky.

In reference to this particular thread, I think the most important thing to remember is:

There are two kinds of people in the world; those who classify people into two groups, and those who do not.

I have to disagree about Sony dumping the memstick too. Just look at all of the products that Sony makes that use the memstick: Clie's, digicams, video cams, audio players, TV's, Laptops, PC's etc... That is more than enough to support the format for some time.

Sony could come up with a Popsickle stick format and build it into all of it's products and it would become a quasi-standard.

But why has SONY fallen so far behind SD in memory capacity? Either way, if they abandon MS or not, it is a scandal that SONY has failed so miserably to develop this technology further especially because so many devices depend upon it.

Thanks, Robrecht

It is only the geeks here that have a big problem with MS versus SD - Sony isn't sweating any. After all, they sell more MS than all SD vendors combined. Thats the bottom line. They won't even consider dropping MS from CLIE just because PIC users like an open standard.

Sony still uses MiniDisc. I think the MemStick will be around for a while.

-----------------------------------------
Palm IIIx for 3 years & LOVING IT!

I'm not worried about MS surviving or pointless arguments about open source versus proprietary formats--I just wish SONY would support it better by increasing MS capacity.

Thanks, Robrecht

SOny has said they will release 256MB, 512MB, and probably 1GB Memory Sticks this year. So the capacity will catch up to SD. There is no way they will drop MS. They have a great system going.

Take a picture with a Sony camera, view it on the Clie.
Catch a movie on your Sony video camera, watch it on your Clie.
Take pictures or movies with your Clie and pop the MS in any Sony laptop and view them.

I think the way Sony has integrated MS into there products wil improve even more in 2003 and certainly we won't see the end of the MS. Maybe they will do a SD/MMC and MS on a Clie, but that might still be unlikely.

Mike,
are you trying to be interesting or are these really educated guesses ?
Sony drop memory stick in 2003 ? Sony kills microsoft Tablet PC ? ...
If you are not a psychic, there is no way I will believe these. Well, even if you are a psychic ...

> MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

It doesn't need to, it's fine where it is. I have yet to see an alternative that matches MD in terms of pocketability, versatility and media price.

MemoryStick is inferior to SD by all means (SD has better I/O capability and much faster transfer speed). But Sony will continue to support it even if no-one else is using it. Sony has the means to go at it alone.

Sony is introducing the smaller MemoryStick Duo this year, it'll be debuting in the Sony Eircsson P800 smartphone. This is further evidence that MS is not going away any time soon.

Minidisc is hugely popular in Japan, many parts of Asia and Europe. Just the Japanese market alone can sustain Minidisc for another 10 years.

While the U.S. audience has been rather negative about Minidisc, the US Minidisc market is still growing steadily and remains profitable. Even places like Target has been carrying Minidisc recorders and media for well over 3 years.

Heck, even I wouldn't pronounce MiniDisc dead.

The only thing that so far rivals the minidisc is the iPod in regards to portablility- the majority to all of your music collect in one format on one device. Except that the lowest price for an ipod is about 300 dollars, where a good minidisc player can be bought for $150. Until stuff like the iPod is cheaper and more common, the minidisc won't die out.

I forget, but didn't I read somewhere Symbian trumps PPC and even Palm in sales volume in Europe?

Foo, you dog! I should have printed your predictions last year when I first saw them. I can't tell if they were "updated" since then. Heh-heh. You hit some things right on the head -- but you were also picking on PPC too.

1. Sony and SG will have roughly equal share controling about 20-25% market each. Total Global POS will go near 50-55% mark by Q2.

2. Handspring will cease as independent company or become a small niche outfit like Handera, providing consulting service to phone makers.

3. Tungstan W fails. TT gets 3-5% of the market. The bulk of Palm SG sales are still 4.1, specially the sub $150 units.

4. M555 delayed, trying to fix m550 too much, becomes unstable. Ended up with 'just do it' release, another minor upgrade to m550 but 175mhz, 32MB, same everything else.

5. OS 6.0 will not be ready before Q3, leaving OS5.0 as high end OS of Palm SG pretty much the whole year, leading to complete erosion on their high end market. Sony will have them for lunch on $400 plus market.

6.MS smartphones is only a negligable player. It cannot compete yet against Nokia and friends. 2004 will be the year instead.

7.Dell plus one or two unknown Taiwanese OEM will rule the $300 market. HP tattering along with miniscule share in this market. Toshiba is out from there. Sony kills Palm inthis category, TT will be $250 by Q3.

8. grafitti will stay put in 2003 in all Palm SG models. Sony improved the VG with various tweak, releasing standard T form with Xscale.

9. integrated WiFi will have VoiP as killer app. Low quality video cam-chat will start to catch on. Sony will include complete wireless software with their NX, and at least one PPC model will have integrated camera model.

10. all above $400 PDA will have some sort of built in wireless, specially WiFi.

Gekko: "Mark this prediction down. I'm sure it will come back to haunt him."

Don't worry. If I'm wrong, there are several hundred people who will be more than happy to laugh in my face.

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

do you mean new product or the to-be markdowned SJ30?

Palm has already reduced the price of the m130 to $199 after rebate, and the CLIE T615C's have been seen lately under the $200 mark (a real bargain, IMO). Even the Palm IIIc is available from sellers on PriceWatch starting at $126, and still is a nice device. If I was new to Palm OS, I'd consider the bundle at compgeeks.com: IIIc, keyboard, case, chargers, extra cradle, and modem for $185.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com

The Clie T615 doesn't count. It is discontinued. I'm talking about a PERMANENT placement at the $150 price point.

I agree, Mike. The stylus is horrible. It must have been designed for a toddler's hands. Tungsten has a wonderful stylus. Chromed metal..nice and thick. A manly stylus! :-)

"it's better to be a pirate than join the navy." - Steve Jobs

"It must have been designed for a toddler's hands."

You don't have kids, do you Foo? Toddlers don't have the full dexterity of adult hands yet, so a smaller stylus would actually be harder for them to use. Kindergarteners maybe. ;)

"Never offend people with style when you can offend them with substance." - Sam Brown

Mike, your predictions seem so-so. And Foo, you seem to have some good predictions. But I have to say, Ska, as much as I ususally don't agree with your point of view, you seemed to have a really good prediction of 2003. If I had to make predictions, it would look much like yours.

Somebody give that Jimn367 guy a medal... he was totaly wrong.

He's in this thread btw:
http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=4dfaa6267dcf2f3fb810bc48863b3d62&threadid=30223&highlight=PDA+predictions

>>Maybee this hasn't anything to do with the thread but i think atleast the multitasking and also a better file system should be the first thing Palm fixes in the new OS

-- obviously, you did not read all of the links or even investigate them. Do so.

(this is Argent from Brighthand... the stupid PIC account creation scheme kept refusing to send me mail, so the handle "argent" is owned by a zombie)

1. Windows powered handhelds will continue to do about 15%-20% of handheld retail sales, just as they have for as long as they've been on the market.

2. I hope you and Mike are right on this one... SOMEONE needs to produce a "Color Handera".

3. I don't know about "mopping the floor". Sony (and Handspring, before they self-destructed) each managed to match the PPC in market share, and I expect Sony to keep doing that, while Palm retains the largest market share.

4. Christmas 2001 I predicted that Handspring would be eaten by the cellphone companies, so I have no argument there.

5. If OS6 comes out this year, it'll either be effectively Beta quality or it'll be too close to OS5 in capability to do what I think it needs to do. I would much rather they made sure it was right than try and meet an unrealistic deadline... and I don't think they *need* OS6, if they can improve the network support in OS5 just a little.

6. You have a much more exciting vision of OS6 than I do. :)

7. Especially if the lawsuit (see The Register) gets nasty.

8. Agreed.

9. What are you smoking?

This seems to be the only correct statement on the page.

Actually, in-the-know info is only a distraction from actual
market changes and oppurtunity. What we (geeks) all see is that
the handheld market could be what has become of the home computer market.
And one day it will. But first we will need:
1. A single standard of electronic text for Education AND business (though they needn't be the same)

2. To get rid of styluses ALTOGETHER!!!!!!!!!!!
I can't emphasize this enough. Do you have your own pen? is it a skinny BIC?
I bet you have an ergonmic writing tool like everyone else. PDA tips built into pens will eventually
be standard on pens. (go check wal-mart right now)If your like the average PDA user, when you need to input,
who cares what blunt object you use? Once the pda/pens are all around, you won't even remember needing one.
(are you designers listening???)bottom line, all styluses are uncomfortable and stupid. You're neigbors' arthritic mother wouldn't consider compsoing
e-mail with one. And that is your market.
3. As far as second-guessing SONY, You are kidding right? I happen to love my 128MS's. They will probably come out with the larger ones when we have bought all the mass produced existing ones.
Unlike all these other tech companies, Sony does nothing without first securing a profit, evne if they must under-produce to avoid overruns. Try studying SONY and your predictions will be more likley
4. oh, getting back to what it takes to make PDA's commonplace: see #1 and suggest federal subsidation of institutions willing to convert all text in the public domain into Palm or E-book format. Now that's a
platform i'd vote for.

G4

>>Try studying SONY

-- oh, and I have. Have you read the books out there? How do you think I know the name of Ibuka when most people have only heard of Morita?

WiFi is quite big here too. But we recognise that it's not ideal for small mobile devices. Nearly all new mobile phones (that is, *all* new mobile phones except for Motorola!) have GPRS and Bluetooth. It is a combination that just makes more sense than PDA/WiFi.

You can also get BT 'boxes' as you put it. Check out www.expansys.com or www.blueunplugged.com. They're a bit pricey at the moment, but prices should drop significantly in a couple of months.

As for the DSL, yeah it's a bitch here. It's probably more widespread than you think; but we have our own Qualcomm here -- BT (that's British Telecom, not Bluetooth) who seem unwilling (for monopoly purposes) to let other companies offer DSL easily. Still, prices are coming down quite a bit now, so hopefully there will be more take up.

WiFi just has no place in a small, go anywhere, handheld device.

FBN

I am a user in the States. Palm SG is doing the right thing by going bluetooth. the new ipaq has both 802.11 and bluetooth. Being a member here, I'm obviously not your average user. But, I think some of my use could fit the typical average user model. I have wi-fi at work, and at home. If I had wi-fi in my palm, would I use it? Maybe only to do hot-syncs. Why? If I'm at home or in the office, I use a PC to browse the web. If I'm in a meeting, I don't typically need to refer to the web. I refer to my notes, which are stored locally. If I am away from my office, and I need net access, it is to check my email, or log in to an office pc for repairs (this is not typical). I can do this with my Handspring Visor with a Red-M Bluetooth card, and my Ericsson T68m Bluetooth phone. I also wear a jabra bluetooth headset. While technically speaking, I would call bluetooth vs. wi-fi roughly the same, there are other differences.
I think it comes down to distribution.
Consumer products cycle very quickly. TI could introduce an 802.11b headset that is very low power.
But how long does it take to create a national wireless infrastructure? 3G in the US has a tremendous head start in providing largely complete geographic coverage. If somebody wanted to do Wi-fi and have anywhere near the coverage, I would say they are looking at 2-3 years. the top 3-5 us wireless carriers are going to have largely complete geographic 3G coverage in the next 12 months. Phones cycle very quickly. Many phones already have bluetooth. So in 12 months, if someone has a cellphone, they can have 3G service for their phone, pda, and laptop anywhere in the US. While somebody with an 802.11 pda and laptop are still waiting for coverage in the US. Qualcomm is working on bluetooth chipsets, and is even selling some. All of the top 3-5 are going to have complete coverage, and complete a complete bluetooth product line in the next 12 months - guaranteed. In addition, how long have network print servers and 802.11 wireless print servers been around? They have a pretty good track record. HP is selling bluetooth printers. Bluetooth will go into all devices. Don't forget about the times you have to hook up a friends computer for them, simply because they don't know where all those blasted cords go. Bluetooth's goal (and they are getting there) is to replace all those cords.
802.11 has better range, and so is better in the office, and at home. But once you leave the office, cell phones + bluetooth have the range people need. Bluetooth is also introducing a high-power mode, where the range is increased (for inside the office).
Bluetooth can look up your phone # in your PDA, and dial your phone, and transfer the call to your headset - TODAY.
Bluetooth may have started later than 802.11, but it is in the lead, and I think it will hit critical mass quicker than a nationwide 802.11 network.

Matt

ps - Sony will still provide memstick for clie's - but they may add SD in addition. There are just too many other memsticks to not keep it in their pda's.

I can't believe there are people who "complain" about a PDA having integrated bluetooth. Especially Palminfocenter contributors.

Why is it so hard for people in the US to understand that bluetooth is immensely useful in countries with widespread (and cheap) wireless internet access through GSM/GPRS networks? Is there anyone who would say no to always- on wireless access through a PDA or laptop no matter where they are? With bluetooth and a GPRS phone you don't have to be in your office to access the net. You can do it while relaxing on a beach somewhere in the Aegean, or you can check your email just before boarding a plane at Heathrow.

If Wi-Fi was as widespread (i.e. would allow wireless internet access throughout a whole country or continent) and cheap it would be equally good. As it stands, it only exists in corporate LANs, and that's useful too (though not for everyone).

In Greece you can get GPRS internet access for as low as $12-$15 a month, and that is with NO LIMIT on usage (this is the best deal I know, there are a range of others). For months, I struggled with the IR port on the m505 to connect to my Ericsson T39 GPRS phone. The bluetooth SD card has changed EVERYTHING. Now the Tungsten T has taken it to a different level, allowing you to keep your SD memory card in the slot while connecting to the net.

Are people aware that GSM/GPRS is available in the US? T-Mobile and AT&T provide services, though I haven't checked prices. Unfortunately, 2G and 2.5G networks were slow to pick up in the US, and that may explain why a lot of people don't understand the beauty of connecting a cellphone to a PDA or laptop.

There should be NO debate on whether or not to add BT or Wi-Fi to a PDA. We would like to have both, so that we can have wireless internet nationwide or in the office, but until that happens, I want bluetooth first. It is available NOW and it lets me surf the net CHEAPLY anywhere I want.

I'm in North America and I have to say that the tide is turning towards Bluetooth for mobile use. Within the last few months I've noticed cell stores for the first time selling BT headsets and actually selling out of them. I have both WiFi and BT networks, but BT makes SOOOO much more sense for the PDA. I mean, you are most likely to use your PDA away from your office, that's why it's small. If you're at your office then why wouldn't you use your computer or the laptop to surf the net, it's way better. When you're out and about, BT allows you to turn your PDA into a connected unit. This post is made over WiFi, but with my laptop!

Don't talk to me about Starbucks, even if I frequented it do I want to use my PDA only when I'm there? I think people against BT are people who never tried it, but have already invested into WiFi. I was there too, but didn't think twice about adding BT to my arsenal. Now that Palm and HP started adding it to their devices you will just see more BT in PDAs, since the initial integration costs have now been surpassed. This is one prediction you can count on in 2003.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), the PDA manufacturers do not model their product development specifically on you. :)

I agree that there are people that don't need BT, but compare the number of people that do want BT to the number of people that want WiFi and you'll see my point.

I have WiFi but I have zero desire to hook up my PDA to it, my laptop is way better for it. Now, even if the end user has a WiFi network at home most of them would rather use the computer to surf the net (after the novelty of surfing with the PDA wears off).

BT on the PDA actually solves a very important and FINANCIALLY LUCRATIVE problem: connectivity on the go. Do you think people spending hundreds of dollars on Blackberry don't have cell phones? For me, BT on my PDA directly saved me money (and heaps of it), I was able to ditch the crappy B&W Blackberry for a cheaper and BETTER solution. If you think BT is a Europe-only fad then the next year will prove you wrong (consider that my prediction).

Wow, great common sense thinking here people... I mean seriously, I thought that my PDA and phone would need 300 feet to communicate!

------------------------
Mario Masitti
O/T Mod
I Love Tennis :)

Ben--- You took my idea!!!!!

Check out our Bluetooth forum here--- I want one that I can toss in my backpack so I can use my T|T to check my eMail, etc. on my campus's WiFi.

-JWH

at this point bluetooth is so pricey, that it is impractical to buy it. there are actually BT units that you can plug in to the headset jack on your telephone that have a 12-inch cord. That is sad. My local Best Buy hasn't sold one since it has been available (3 weeks), mostly due to the fact that it is a major ripoff at $170. What is the point of this? A corded $10 headset isn't good enough? The only time i would see practicality with a BT headset is if you were a giraffe!

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.

http://www.expansys.com/product.asp?code=EZ232

No comments needed.

Zuber

Did any of you even bother to read the linked article about WiFi spots?! Hello, some of us -- like me! -- have access to free WiFi. Why would I want a damned cellphone for $ when I can have WiFi access for free?!

Jeez Mike, do you think all of us live in NYC or SF??? People complain that GPRS coverage is spotty, I wonder what they'd say talking to you about the "free" WiFi coverage. Personally, I'd take the GPRS coverage over the WiFi coverage any day of the week.

Mike, how can you not use a mobile? I can't even remember the last time I used a landline phone. Having a mobile is just so convenient. I couldn't imagine being without one

Ben. Here's a link for a BT to WiFi gateway. A bit pricey at the moment, but I suspect (hope) that's because it's new.

http://www.expansys.com/product.asp?code=PX20

FBN

The world HAS been taken over by BT enabled mobile phone addicts!

FBN

Just something to add to that WiFi with a few miles radius coverage claim...

Have you ever heard of CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY? If a cell is a few miles wide in a populated area, 802.11b type technology will be so bogged down that it will be USELESS. Imagine how many people would be latching on to it in a densely populated area? And when they all transmit/receive data, be bandwidth will be sucked dry so quick that you'd be better off running POTS. Even 802.11a wouldn't be able to handle it. This is one reason cell technology is invented, to better reuse the limited spectrum of frequencies. Lower the power and you will limit the amount of people you need to serve per point, and easing up on the bandwidth useage per station.

I use a TT and a T68 with T-Mobile. Thanks to bluetooth, the world has changed. Here are my (real world) reasons why:

Looking for houses just driving through prospective neighborhoods, I put the pin number on a Shorewest sign into their website on my TT's browser and brought up the specs. My wife looked at me in amazement when I said "it's got a pool in the back yard honey, but they want 275,000 for it!"

Driving back from Madison WI, my TT's datebook alarm went off: only 5 minutes left until my eBay item auction ended. On my TT, I logged in and placed the winning bid. I now have a 128 meg Panasonic SD card thanks to bluetooth.

At Comdex Fall, I used the PicoBlue access points at the palm pavilion to get email and surf the web to verify the (sometimes incredible) claims of the various salespersons there. Access speed was T1 (760KB/s or so) and I was linking to the access points over 200 feet away. There was no additional battery drain on my TT when I set the backlight off (didn't need it with the bright lighting on the show floor). My wife sent me an email "Check the website for new pics of your little girl". I brought up the (Fotki based) site on WebPro.

The most I heard at the WiFi access points was "I was trying to pull emails, but my batteries died"...

Like I said Mike, the world is changing....

Consider:

Type II (100 meter range, 50 meter realistic) bluetooth USB dongle costs about $60. On the forums posted here, are the instructions for making it work with windows networking on your PC. Got broadband at home? Start surfing with your bluetooth enabled TT too. T-Mobile data service costs $11/mo for 10 megs. I use the heck out of my service and I do about 7-10 megs per month thanks to Palm's proxy based browser.

The world is changing folks. Do you know what I want?

I want my phone to do WiFi. That way it becomes my network access point and my PDA isn't subject to WiFi based battery drain.

Please list all the devices on sale now that have the Symbian OS in them...

I'm still waiting for a list of "Symbian Inside" devices (I am not being snide; just curious). Didn't infosync pan the Ericsson-Sony SymbianOS phone?

>>Do not forget the sale force of nokia and ercisson

I have been dying to actual get some hands-on time with a Symbian device - my euro friends love the OS. But is there any significant Symbian presence in North America? Any devices at all (i haven't really searched but nothing has crossed my path anywhere).

As for the comments above about nokia and ericisson, remember: nokia and ericisson are massive but they have made there share of mistakes. They were the biggest boosters of WAP, which is widely regarded as one of the biggest blunders in modern tech industry. telcos and handset makers - especially ericisson - lost huge amounts of money on this. Not sure about Nokia, but ericsson is not doing so well these days.

Searching on google I found another phone, the 380s from Ericsson which should have been discontinued by now.
As pda I found the Oregon Osaris Symbian OS Device (just don't ask me what it is), plus the psion series (5mx, 7, Revo and NetBook).
Plus a thing called Netpad, designed mainly for industrial applications.

Is the list somewhat skimpy? You bet. Nokia however should use symbian more intensively in the next few months but, and here's the catch, only in higher end devices.
Also the arrival of the Godot... P800 should make the OS more appealing to other manufacturers.

We'll see.
Palmato

Nokia 7650, 3650, 9210, 9210c, 9210i, 9290
Nokia NGage
SonyEricsson P800
Ericsson R380

infosync haven't reviewed the p800 yet, but all the preview reviews say it's hot.

Instead of predicting things to come, why don't we just list the things we'd like to see, you know the people that actually buy these products. I realize everyone uses their device diffrently, but guess what maybe somone from Palm and Sony actually read these boards every now and then.

Palm and Sony have been a little short on devices lately. The Tungsten, though I applaud the new design, comes a little short. What was the driving factor for the collabsible design? The device, even when extended to it's full length fit's into my pocket. If they wanted to innovate, the screen would have had a virtual grafitti area. Also, there has to be some rule that says when you release a new product, make sure it has the same capabilites plus new ones than the similar product from the competition. I think it's insane that you cannot play MP3's out of the box n a Tungsten. Everyone seems to say, ah the Ipod is better or this or that is better; Guess what folks, you have to buy that hardware it better be better but it also means you have to drag that other piece of hardware behind you. Kudos on their voice capability, that's long overdue and it also appears to be a very good implementation. Double kudos on the built in Bluetooth. I keep hearing the WiFi naysayers, but unless I'm missing something I'm missing all these WiFi watering holes people keep referring to. I do however have a Blueetooth enable phone and what a great idea to dial my cell phone from my Palm pilot, or use my Palm interface to retrieve information from the web, or to have my phone pass my pop e-mail directly to my Palm without ever talking my phone off my waist. With WiFi, I'd have all these capablities also, but oh yeah, I'd have to locate these mystical WiFi hibs first.

Sony's new NX series device is clearly targeted, not at the serious Palm user but at the leading edge Technofile. Camera, video, voice, keyboard, compact flash, the only thing missing is a toe nail clipper. Also, try getting that thing into a shirt pocket. I guess I'm just simple but Grafitti works for me, it always has, it's intuitive and easy to learn and I'd much rather use that than thumb my way through data entry.

So that brings me my ultimate device, and this is where I hope some visionary at Palm or Sony happens to have a few hours of time to browse my tirade.

1. Increased screen size due to use of virtual grafitti area.
2. Built in voice recorder
3. Built in Bluetooth
4. Memory Stick or SD card slot
5. Play's MP3s (OUT OF THE BOX)
6. Fits comfortably into a shirt pocket
7. A stylus that actually stays in place when you slide it into the device
8. Decent battery life, what I mean by decent is you're required to charge it no less than every 3 days after "normal use"
9. Hi Resolution screen

I realize both Palm and Sony already have a lot of these features, but neither of them have them in a single unit, let's see who brings it to market first.

"What does Bluetooth do for me? Enable me to tell the TT to trust Microsoft's BT-enabled mouse? Feh.

Oh, and also to have to get a cellphone (which I don't want) so I can complain about the lousy voice quality and faint at the bill at the end of each month..."

BT and WiFi merits aside, this kind of an ostrich mentality will never produce a well balanced set of predictions. You sir are heavily biased.

>> Duh. You could tell?

Hiding ignorance behind sarcasm. What an innovative concept.

Fact remains that your "predictions" are nothing more than personal preferences. Every member of this board could compile a wish list and call it predictions.

> As regards your comments about blue tooth and such. Many of us also
> don't see the use, but that is no reason to knock someone else's predictions.

If you don't see the use for BT, then you're just not informed enough. However, it's quite understandable that the applications for BT are not useful to you personally, but that's completely different from putting the concept down alltogether.

Naming absurd examples (coupling a PDA with a mouse? oh please...) to make a technology seem useless while thousands have embraced it is immature, short sighted and no better than what the PPC afficionados do when trolling these forums. Also, when you don't need a cell phone, just say that you don't need one, not that having a BT device means that you "have to" get one and that they have lousy voice quality. I suppose the man hasn't had his hands on a cell phone in the past 5 years if that's his universal truth.

Sure, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but that includes me. And I say that nonsense arguments don't explain to me why this man's predictions need to be promoted to the headlines while others have shown to be equally, if not more accurate.

> Oh, please! You should work for the gov't
> promoting the war against Iraq! (Do you?)

You sure have trouble dealing with criticism for someone posting an article like this. What did you expect? For us to all drop down at your feet and say amen and hallelujah?

And no, my current job suits me just fine, thank you. I have no interest in working for your government.

> Some people do *not* have a use for BT. Live with it.

I've got no problem with that, certainly not to "live with it".

The point is (which you still don't seem to grasp) that ridiculing the technology as a whole is completely different from not seeing a use for it personally. Instead of contributing a balanced set of pros and cons, you come up with nonsensical examples to make BT look useless for *everyone* not just *yourself*.

If it's just opinion, why do you get so worked up over mine?

I attend a lot of conferences and the apparently simple task of checking my mail while sitting on one of those typical cramped ad hoc conference hall chairs has always been a balancing act for me; trying to put both my cell phone and PDA on my leg, keeping their IR ports facing eachother and hoping one of them won't drop to the floor when someone pokes me in the back while taking the seat behind me. With BT, I can keep my cell phone in my pocket and my Palm in my hand.

I also send and receive a lot of SMS's. Doing this on a cell phone is much more cumbersome than using a PDA, especially when combined with a PPK or Stowaway. Try doing that with IR, it's even more of an acrobatic performance than emailing from your knee. With BT, my phone is in my pocket or briefcase and I'm comfortably typing away on my PPK while sitting at the dinner table or my office desk.

You may have no use for these applications, but if you're suggesting that BT is no good for anything but connecting your Palm to a mouse, then you have trouble separating facts from fiction. That's *my* opinion.

RVDW,

On rereading your original comments, I see I misread it the first time. I thought you were saying that Mike should not be allowed his own opinion. Perhaps I was mixing your comments up with others in this LONG thread. Your final comments make it more clear that you were not so much saying that the predictions were so lame that Mike should just shut up and go away. You really were just disagreeing his own view of the use of BT.

My apologies for attacking you.

Your final comments on your personal use of BT show it's value well.

I see your point. I wish others had mentioned that struggle up front.

Was it Jimmy Durante who said, "Everybody wants to get into the act!"?

It'll be interesting to come back to all these lists in a year.

Lunqboy,

Who leaked the configuration of the new Handera to you????

Georg

RE "9) I finally finish the RPG I've been working on for 3 years. Fails to attract customers, I sob pathetically."

I hope that prediction is wrong. You actually finish the game, make millions, and I get to say "I knew him when."

I like your #5. Too bad this is public. I would have liked to steal it! Hah!

Do you envision this as a sorta "bridge box" that has its own batteries, that you plug in each night to recharge? As long as it's lightweight and maybe has a belt clip or wrist strap -- and is *cheeep* -- I'd like that.

Good God! It doesn't seem to be! So, I would have been stealing stolen goods, would I?

I must have been slpopy (sic) in reading ben's original comments. I took his crossover point thingie to be a box that sits near a PC, not a pocketable device.

hotpaw4... you get the award for the most accurate predictions yet... I predict. I like your japanese schoolgirl prediction.

MTT

...in regards to the bluetooth to WiFi server, I actually imagine that it could be a cellphone that could do this. Maybe the next reiteration of the Ericsson 520.

MTT

OK, I don't know why anyone's concerned about the predictions of a guy who's batting average would get him booted out of the minors, but I for one will offer my own predictions for next year and wait to see how I look in 12 months.

For the record, I wrote these before seeing Lungboy's or Hotpaw4"s predictions, both of which I like.

1. The quiet death of Handspring. Maybe they won't be all the way dead but the buzzards will be circling. 'Nuff said. Palm SG1 (sorry) might buy some of the remains, but they won't be eager to try to resurrect the brand.

2. Sony won't dump their MS and they won't release or support any higher capacity MS either, infuriating their loyal legions. Third party sticks will be fraught with problems.

3. Very few people will care about OS 6 beyond the geek fringe because it will have taken so long for developers to upgrade software for OS 5 and buyers will be understandably hesitant to jump yet again to a largely new OS.

4. PalmSource will sell software. An OS is software, ergo...

5. Sony will gain market share with several new designs and their usual parade of releases; I expect at least one totally new form factor and maybe two, plus reiterations of the current crop. Palm SG1 will maintain a near-static share due to lack of anything approaching a novel design after blowing their creative wad on Tungsten T. Further, Palm SG1's products will be plagued with quality issues.

6. Tablet PCs will be a tiny and slow-growing niche market for most of 2003. No one will buy an oversized PDA that doesn't have complete connectivity.

7. PalmSource will breakout of mama's shadow with a bunch of new licensees as soon as its house is order (maybe sooner). Most of the new players will have trouble differentiating themselves, and their marketshare will stay in the low single digits.

8. Gateway and Dell won't believe me on No. 7, and one or both will license the Palm OS. We won't see the device(s) untill the 4th Q. Sony will keep them from making inroads on their share, so most of the bite will come out of Palm SG1's slice.

9. Palm SG1's smartphones will surprise everyone with greater marketshare that Handspring ( see No. 1 ) and some high-level enterprise penetration ( I love that phrase ). Other Palm OS smartphones will grow, and the orphan OS phones will mostly flounder. The largest part of the buying public will ignore Bluetooth and wait until connecting is cheaper and easier.

10. I agree that positive public perception will continue to lift the boats of Palm licensees and MS will continue to poison its own well, resulting in a low or no-growth year for PPC.

Check back with me next year to learn my first year's batting average and how I stack up to the pros.

DOG

And not allowing anonymous users to post on PIC was supposed to end off-topic, juvenile comments like the one Mike just posted...

I had actually wondered what the ultimate purpose was of disallowing anonymous posting. I haven't really noticed a significant drop in the signal to noise ratio. Of course, the noise that IS/WAS here never bothered me in the first place.

You can probably tell from my username what MY opinion of disalowing anonymous posts is.

Ick

Well, I haven't gotten a PPC. See the last line of the essay. Are we to have loyalty oaths now? (The Patriot Act goes too far as it is!)

Me too! I must admit 2.5 out of 10 last years predictions, wow I'm glad your not picking my stocks, but at least you did better than the broker I just fired!

Please buy Palm stuff, I want my stock to go back up so I can sell it!

I disagree about Danger. Their device is pretty neat, but I've not seen them very eager to support third-party developers, and they are too closely tied to the carriers to let random apps run on their phones. I think they will suffer like RIM does, with a reasonably popular but closed platform that will hit a niche, but not have room to grow.

--
Ben Combee, CodeWarrior for Palm OS technical lead
Programming help at www.palmoswerks.com

That's definitely a big question right now. Rumor has it that the 3rd party development tools exist and they should be released within the next couple of months. I agree that the platform won't be as open as the Palm OS, but I think that the minds behind Danger realize that they need an active developer community to really make this device a hit. As such, I predict that what we'll see is a model whereby the only way for a user to install an app will be via the provider's web site and the providers will all get a certain percentage of the software sale.

Scott

"Imagine not using a pc to view photos taken from a digital camera but instead on your tv. The ideas are endless."

Sony already makes a TV with a Memory Stick slot to do this. Imagain no more, its here!

Nope. [:)]

Sony picked Palm OS from the start and I don't see them switching unless they see a huge gap that needs to be filled.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

>How will somebody share an application with
>their new PDA to their friend's IIIc?

It's not like a new OS 5 or OS 6 application is going to work on that Palm IIIc anyway.

Furthermore, as applications get larger, IR becomes more and more cumbersome. 10 seconds is a LONG time to wait for an application, and I have to wait much longer for 300k+ apps.

Palm Researcher at the University of Texas at Austin
http://www.edb.utexas.edu/petrosino/pda

IR will die once Bluetooth becomes affordable enough to be included in every handheld. Once the majority of shipping PalmOS devices have BT, IR will disappear.

Yes, companies like TV Compass are developing BT remote controls for digital TV (so the remote can download listings, adverts, games, etc. from the TV -- you can't do that with IR).

Plus, how many people buy a PDA to only control their TV?

FBN

Personally I think it would be quite useful having the program guide on your remote. As for the spam -- I get spammed every 15 minutes watching commercial television anyway; a bit more on the remote won't affect me to much.

You won't need to recharge the remote every day. BT uses hardly any power. Your thinking of WiFi again Mike.

FBN

I've heard about this charging mat recently but didn't pay much attention. Since I only need to charge my CLIE (and I do that only every 2-3 days now), it's not something I really concentrated on. For people who have multiple devices that need charging (you poor souls!), it sounds like they could use it.

"Plus, how many people buy a PDA to only control their TV?"

The same amount of people who impulsively buy those $1000 remotes with color screens to control their $50,000 Home theater system.
BTW, Bluetooth isn't the only waste of power. The power system on my M130 was designed so inefficiently, that when i do a soft reset, The battery level instantly drops from 96% to 82% on my Launcher X. The Palm OS is not a power-efficient system. My m130 has the same battery life as a Pocket PC. One time I didn't charge it for 3 days and when I went to turn it on, the battery was totally gone. Shows how good the Palm OS is with battery.

-------------
Burning Desire: The want or need for something great.
Burning THE Zire: A fun recreational activity involving setting Palm's new crappy handheld ablaze.

Oh yes, that iPaq 7000 has a battery life of 2 minutes and Wall Street exuctives snatch it up. Riiiiight. Nice try. For $1200, they'll sell two models. One to Bill Gates and one to his wife. That'll be it. Nobody would be crazy enough to spend $1200 on a PDA that costs more than a laptop and has tons less functionality, not to mention battery life of a half hour.

PPC goes back in the gutter this year thanks to Dell.

---
This signature is witty. You like it.

How about the iPAD for Apple's PDA?

FBN

Actually, it was 3 and a fraction. I don't break up paras between Memos. (And don't forget: those Memos included the long links and formatting codes.)

Let me say it again, more clearly:

I need a Palm unit with a *big* color screen in landscape format. Bigger than any current Palm has.

I also need a keyboard that is *part of* the unit.

In other words, a micro-notebook!

Where can the Vaio U3 be had for a little over a grand? It costs $1999 from Dynamism.com, for example: http://www.dynamism.com/u3/pricing.shtml

On eBay the pricing seems to range from $1600-1700.

I'd love to see where this can be had for only $1000, that would be quite appealing.

Checked out the Sony...

8. It's too heavy at 1.8 pounds. The Jornada is 1.1, which is a kind of upper limit. I'd actually prefer it below 1 pound.

Anyhoo, the point is I don't want a fully featured PC, I want a simple machine for simple word processing (and some email/web browsing)! A machine for work, not play.

I don't think that would be as much as $800, unless Palm/Fujitsu/whoever got stupid and added a lot of bells and whistles.

...it sounds to me like you're doing your best to justify NOT wanting the VAIO, but I'll tackle your issues point by point:

"1. My MS Word on the laptop really doesn't do anything for me that WordSmith doesn't also do (true!)."

...but MS Word is certainly superior, regardless of whether you use its extra features or not (which it most certainly does have -- to suggest otherwise is preposterous). Even if all things are equal, at least under MS Word you are working within the native environment for that file format -- no having to deal with conduits, lost formatting, or occasionally spotty translations. I don't see how this point can be argued in favor of Palm.

"2. Palm (and the Jornada) has no boot time, while WinPC's are soooo slooooow..."

Most modern laptops come with highly customizable power management features that allow the machine go into a PDA-like standby mode. The U3 is no different.

"3. PalmOS is infinitely more stable than WinXP (the OS on my laptop is XP, so I know)."

I have found Windows XP Professional to be pretty darn stable. I very rarely ever have to restart my computer due to a lockup or crash. You say yourself that you mainly use your Palm for word processing -- if you followed the same usage patterns with your laptop, I doubt it would ever crash, either. Anyway, my mileage definitely varied in this case.

"4. I live in Norway, where computers are insanely expensive, at least the kind you describe here. So even if it ever got released here, I couldn't afford it."

You can find the U3 model new for $1400US on eBay (look for the auctions of a seller with the handle 'yclub2000' -- email him directly for a quote).

"5. What is the battery life of this thing? An hour? The Jornada is about 8-9 hours, I suspect a Palm micronotebook would be longer."

About three to four hours. Keep in mind that the VAIO is powering a 933Mhz TCrusoe, while your HPC is running a 133Mhz SH3 Hitachi. I doubt a Palm micronotebook would be much longer -- heck, the Tungsten T is only managing 3.5 hours, according both Palm and PalmInfoCenter.

"6. The jornada also has PCMCIA and CF, I'd expect a Palm micronotebook to have PCMCIA, SD, and maybe bluetooth (yes, I'm one of those nasty cell-phone hungry Euros)"

This is the beauty of the U3 -- since it's a standard XP machine, you can buy any PCMCIA device on the market today without having to ask yourself, "Does this thing come with drivers to support my machine?" If I plug any garden variety Bluetooth/802.11b card into your suggested Palm micronotebook, will it work? Not unless there is software available specifically to allow it to work with a Palm. Sony regularly gets panned for releasing devices that don't conform to industry standards -- now that they have, are you suddenly going to determine that conformity isn't such a big deal any more?

"8. It's too heavy at 1.8 pounds. The Jornada is 1.1, which is a kind of upper limit. I'd actually prefer it below 1 pound."

Yet at the same time you want the following...

'I need a Palm unit with a *big* color screen in landscape format. Bigger than any current Palm has.

I also need a keyboard that is *part of* the unit.'

Now you're just nitpicking :) You obviously aren't looking for something pocketable, so what does a ounces matter?

"Anyhoo, the point is I don't want a fully featured PC, I want a simple machine for simple word processing (and some email/web browsing)! A machine for work, not play."

So, to break it down, PalmOS = work environment, and Windows XP Professional = play environment. Uh huh.

In case you didn't know, you can do everything that you can do on a Palm and more on a WinXP laptop. This is obviously not debatable. We're not talking about Pocket PC here. Wouldn't it be better to write MS Word documents in their native environment? Wouldn't browsing the web and checking your email be a much more pleasant experience using Outlook and IE, instead of the half baked PalmOS mail clients and web browsers? I don't know how you can say otherwise.

Thanks Mike!
It's like I'm up against Microsoft itself:

"NO you don't want PalmOS! It's not a real computer! You need a Microsoft computer! You'd have to be a moron to choose anything else!"

I really don't want to justify my desire for the Palm micro-notebook any longer, but a final note before I'm outta this thread:

BLOAT!!!!

Bloat 1. The "MS Word superior to WordSmith" argument is once again the way that Microsoft crams lots of extra features not everybody wants into apps. I've used Word for *many* years, and NEVER use any of the features Word has that WordSmith doesn't. So why would I want the extra clutter and memory-hogging that comes with Word? What's so hard to understand about this?

BTW, if my dream unit had software like the Dana, you could also print from it, totally freeing it from the PC. I usually send documents by email, though, and only print every other full moon.

Bloat 2. The Jornada IS pocketable in my coat, which is what I want (not to have to carry an extra bag or something).
But it is old, technology has improved since then (especially battery technology in this issue), and I would expect a unit like the one I wish for to have the same *screen/keyboard size* but be *much lighter*. It could probably be made a bit slimmer, too.
Even if it's big, it's easier to carry around if it's light. 0.8 pounds does make a difference.

Oh, and I really wouldn't buy something at $1400 on eBay, which is in the US, and then have it shipped to Norway. First, there's the risk of buying from a stranger on eBay, halfway across the globe. Then there's the Norwegian import tax of 25%. Then there's the risk that it might be DOA or I might have other problems with it. How do I fix that when the seller and manufacturer is not represented here?

By the way, what happened to this U3 being only a grand??

Well, you have to also allow for people's tastes. I know one person who can't understand why someone would want a separate PDA and a cellphone when there are now PPCs that combine both. In my case, I can't understand why someone would want, say, a 27" TV with a *built-in* VCR or DVD player. MTBF and all that...

Use Win2K/XP's hybernation feature then... It basically writes memory's data into an image file, and then simply read that file and paste it to memory. Very quick, and does not need any special hardware to work.

The handcom office package is pretty impressive actually, definitely outdo Palm and PPC. I downloaded the manual. What kills Zaurus, beside so few title is also the sync apps. It doesn't work very well with windows desktop.

>>The handcom office package is pretty impressive actually, definitely outdo Palm and PPC.

That is the *desktop* version. Get to a store and play with the stuff that's actually on the Z. It's not any more impressive (in fact, in many ways, it is less!) than PWord on PPC. (I have no idea what improvements, if any, might be in the new SL-5600.)

And then go ask around and ask how fonts can be added to the Z...

Why do you think I expect WiFi to be "on" all the time? Do you have BT on all the time? Doesn't that add to a TT's battery drain?

I don't need total area coverage for my WiFi. NYC is concentrated enough with enough free hotspots for me to be satisfied.

Hey, I'd be satisfied if that rumored 802.11b SD card comes out.

Thanks for that additional info.

Oh and for the record, no I don't have anything personal against Mike (apart from thinking his predictions are as reliable as a Magic 8 Ball's :), but if people will insist on lurking in duck ponds and making quacking noises during hunting season then I consider them fair game (as I am for taking the bait..).

Now ssshh, I'm hunting contriwbuters....

;)

>>The sole basis for the predictions in this article are the personal biases and desires of the author

-- a hubristic diatribe of diarhhea from someone who obviously thinks he has high reading comprehension -- and yet MISSES the slug that says **OPINION**.

>>It cannot be primarily a prediction and primarily an opinion piece, could you make it clear which it is?

No. I thought you Brits liked such ambiguity... (it drives us Americans nuts).

>> No. I thought you Brits liked such ambiguity...

Usually only if we get to use it to make us seem superior and/or if it gives us a chance to be snooty and look down on on outsiders who aren't in on the joke (good example of this: 'Mornington Crescent').

As for Editors....I know they all love these kinds of articles because they equate to much publicity and discussion and make the site more visible. Personally this drives me nuts, but PIC's still good so I'm still reading. I stopped reading MacSlash because it did all together to much of it (I think once in a while is okay, but too often can damage the sites reputation in the eyes of the readership).

"WebBrowser Pro - a proxy-based solution"

-- http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_Story.asp?ID=4490

AFAIK, this is quite different than the browser that is being shipped with the CLIE NXes, which is not proxy-based.

-- how about, "like a headache needs an aspirin"?

Take aspirin with large amount of water to avoid stomach problem. Or take other pain medicine that doesn't upset your stomach, but upsets your liver instead.

:)

I hope some of your predictions come true Maniac.

Especially the one about built in BT on the Sony NX series. Had they launched NX with the BT I would have one by now.

As it is, it looks as though the TT will end up being the replacement for my trusty old Palm Vx. It's odd, because for the last couple of years I thought Sony had everything going right and Palm had lost it. Now I find that Palm meets my needs and Sony doesn't.

So my own prediction (well wish really) is NX70V with built-in Bluetooth and a real CF slot (can dump the MS slot for all I care) in Q1 2003!!

Cheers!!

Mike, yes of course it would help.

Only problem is that the NX would be starting to get VERY expensive. If the price of NX70 + BT MS was about the same as the NX70 alone, it would be a super product.

As much as I don't want to go PPC, a Dell Axim with SD BT card is a very hard to beat package.

Dammit! I wish someone would make exactly what I want.

Cheers!!

BT MemoryStick uses up precious storage space, and is bloody expensive.

I hope to see more manufacturers putting Palm D-Pads in their PDAs. I too am waiting for a VG T series with built in BT and OS5 flashable to OS6.

FBN

Well, IMHO even if I have the option to get BT MS + NX70 at a good price, I'll still hold it off.

The reason is simple, I don't want to use up a slot that could be better used for storage. When I plug in my 64MB MS, I consider that slot sealed until further notice.

Not to mention, when they introduced INTERGRATED devices, it is more often a LOT cheaper than having it in a seprate form. BT module can and HAVE costed MORE than what I paid for my BT enabled cellphone. My computer's motherboard for example, if I had to get SATA, IEEE 1394, USB 2.0 on seperate cards, I'll have to pay at least another $100USD for it. And that's for a $130USD motherboard.

I kinda see that NX70 drop in price (say $50 ~ 100 USD) when the NX70BT comes out and replace it. My guess, anyways. If it is true, then I might need to survive with meager budgets for a while. :) Well, I would have NX70 with BT to take my mind off less important things, like food for example. :)

As my prediction being likely, well... this is a prediction as well as what I hope and think will come up soon. We are not posting Educated Wild-A** Guess, are we? :)

>>I have to admire your efforts to deal logically with the Rush Limbaugh of PDAs

-- now wait one minute there. If I am insulted by *anything* someone has written, it's *that*. Don't *ever* compare me to that bag of wind. I don't deal in cant or cliche or shill someone else's agenda (be it political or a PDA manufacturer/licenser).

Comparable you mean?

P800 Runs Symbian OS if I'm not mistaken... instead of making PalmOS run Symbian, why not just make a native Symbian machine? If they actually follow that suggestion, I'd think that would be kinda counterproductive...

Handspring? Symbian?

They'd be nuts to jump ship again, instead of reevaluating their existing products.

But then that'd fit right in with the rest of their corporate ADHD.

Hiya,

I had the same problem with my Tungsten. You don't need to delete everything, just try and reduce the number of databases on your Palm. I deleted my numerous Metro databases (hey I didn't need them anyway), which took me to about 80 databases. It's working fine now.

Regards,

Philip.

Good predictions, but Dell has a great relationship with Hewlett Packard. They have sold their printers and made money selling them for a long time. Dell is not going to.....oops, they dropped HP like a spoiled fish head so they could make and sell their own printers.

We'll see. I would sure like to see Palm OS 5 Axims.

Already said for ...
mp3
video
VFS
games
ARM processors
...
but much more for smartphone

What have we seen ? New gateways let us get these functionnality.
Oh, yes, not so perfectly than on others OS, but enough to keep the best of PalmOS !

just a few quick things:

1. nice job Mike - your last years' predictions were just fine... this years' are a little tougher to swallow...

2. there are many new emerging technologies, but have you noticed how long it takes for them to actually get rolled out? months?? by Q3, maybe there will finally be a good PDA phone ;) hee hee....

3. SYMBIAN could become king with some work. 7.0 is heads above any other OS i have seen. What SYMBIAN needs is some software to read other applications (someone already mentioned this in a different way). This would allow for the 'fan base' to grow into markets which are already used to the other OSs.

4. the tablet PC will soon replace the laptop. who will need a laptop??

5. integrated wireless is king. bluetooth is great for mobile users... WiFi is great for others... WiFi SUCKS battery life worse than anything i have ever seen outside a PCMCIA card. hee hee.

6. CF cards will soon be GONE outside storage (microdrives). SD/IO will take over!

7. celphone providers are going to need to pay NOKIA and Sony Ericsson a whole lot of money so that they will make phones compatible for CDMA. Gadget hungry folks aren't going to last long on their stupid Sprint plans. GSM is hot in the USA finally...

8. whoever mentioned that the Tunsten-W will flop like the Treos wasn't thinking. the Tungsten-W will have GPRS and will be expandable... also showing off a brand new browser. THIS DEVICE will rule and start new rules for gadget makers.

9. memorystick.... good job Sony :). the P800 has a duo slot... thank you for paving the way!!!

10. if only Nokia had made a 9290 with GPRS and expandability and bluetooth, they would have been heads over Sony Ericsson's p800 model.

God bless you all :)

Ave Maria My Homeys
matty

p.s. i don't actually have the Palm Tungsten W yet :).

"11. Microsoft will make the sourcecode of Windows CE (almost) completely public to appease the US and EU authorities"

-- damn. That's happened!

"As an aside your prediction about the Sony Gaming Device is interesting."

-- not my prediction. Foo's. (Who, I see, is touting a different list elsewhere. Ahem!)