Comments on: Palm 3Q Earnings Call Highlights
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RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
I'd actually say that those numbers average out to a lot of Z22s plus an equal spread of T|E2 and TXs. I have actually been told by people somewhat in the konw on a retail level that the TX & E2 are brisk sellers.
One could argue that Palm has the "traditional" PDA market completely to themselves now. HP is fading fast, Dell might throw in the towel any day now and have zero retail presence. The other players (Asus etc) are minor players at best.
As long as Palm can keep restyling & respinning the tried & true Zire/ T|E/ TX meat'n potatoes, that market has another two years of life left. Zero growth, yes, but still with enough interest from current Palm owners or soccer moms to warrant keeping 2-3 models alive. Just because it makes sense doesn't mean Palm will do it. Surur, look at the Casio/Royal/Sharp "digital diary" market. That stuff was primitive in 1990 but they are stil available today at any good mass merchant, blister packed and priced around $40-$50. If a mono Zire could be sold for $50 and a color Zire for $80-$100, there's a slice of the market where Palm & FrankenGarnet looks absolutely high-tech in comparison to the 128k of memory competition .
At this point, producing, packing & marketing these machines likely costs more than comping up with new industrial designs, especially since the tooling for the old form factors was long ago paid for. In theory you'd think something like the TX or E2 would actually have pretty decent margins-no cellular radio, dirt cheap NVFS RAM, no charge LED or vibarting alarm or voice recorder.
Anyone care to hazard a guess what the margin is on the Z22/T|E2/TX vs a Treo?
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
R&D expenditures are normally factored into the 'standard' cost of inventory (ie, on a per unit basis). The 'gross margin' represents the amount by which the net sale price per unit is greater than the 'standard' cost (but it does not including admin, selling and distribution expenses).
The moral to this little parable is that if the 'gross margin' holds up it automatically covers R&D costs.
There is nothing the numbers which indicates that the 'gross margin' on handhelds is being eroded. If anything, the 'gross margin' may hold at current levels since: (a) Palm is already undercutting everyone else in its pricing; and (b) a major player (HP) seems to be exiting this market. In other words, there may be no big market factors which would reduce the 'gross margin'.
If HP really does abandon this market segment, that may provide opportunities for Palm and other players.
I'm speculating, of course - unlike you, I am not able to predict the future.
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
let see now:
- PIC has a story yesterday about a Wall Street Journal article on how Palm capitlized on the RIM uncertainty
Suru missed being the 1st post, so he jumped in with "I find it shocking that their volume of enquirers and number of sales leads were so low. 600 is really unimpressive. It seems they mostly got a bit of PR from the RIM drama, but very little new business."
- Then these 2 stories about the Q3 results (proving his negative assessment of Palms business acumen completey wrong) and he manages 1st post on both, with the Subject headings here:
"The LD is dead. The TX is dead."
...anything for a negative spin!
Wow - palm is crumbling as was prophesized! Falling apart! Oh great TVOR and Surur - guide the way with your supernatural clairvoyance lead us from this digital desert!
LOL. Funny little guy!
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
The math above may be wrong. Palm had 510,000 units of "sell-in" for PDAs (as stated in their conf call). The number you quote above is "sell thru" reported by the channel. The "Sell-in" number is what you should compare to the $100M in revenue. This brings Palm's PDA ASPs to $196. This suggests some more healthy selling of the higher end PDAs.
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
RE: The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
That does make a big difference, and suggest a balance closer to the TX. The LD is still doomed however.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Breakdown of the new Treos
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
#2 700p (Sprint CDMA only)
#3 Hollywood (WinMob GSM only)
#4 Lowrider (POS, GSM & CDMA depending on carrier/market, nearly identical specs to Treo 600 but with NVFS).
So if you differentiate between the Lowrider CDMA & Lowrider GSM, that's five total new "Treos" available this year plus the existing stocks of 650s. By any stretch, that's still a LOT of new product for Palm.
I also still think that a T|E3 of some kind will come out this spring or early summer. The E2 is a good seller and needs to brought up to spec with "Palm" branding. The $200 gulf between the Z22 and the TX is just too large.
Dropping the LD altogether and bringing out a mildly refreshed E3 would give Palm a PDA at three consecutive $100 price points and a decent final lineup with one model for each resolution standard (160*160, 320*320, 320*480).
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
First about the handhelds comment they made: honestly I think that if Palm wants to keep the PDA dev small and make it a true 25% of revenue, then they will bring out a new model that will call attention again to the PDA side. My guess is either an LD or T with some "needed" specs and a good price. Doing that will keep interest there and make the leaving of HP to the space better for them. It would have to be a good one though, I am in the same belief that the TX and E2 are selling nicely. For Palm to tweak that formula some now would be good.
Second comment (sorry posting via treo and mobile PIC doesn't do discussion posts); I expect Palm to bring out an all new Treo in Oct, maybe Nov. The Holloywood GSM one. The P should be a summer intro, late May keeping the pressure on themselves to execute (my fav word on that call today). A P done right would give the competitive numbers needed to really put palm on the burner come that question in the next earnings call (not like how they skipped around it this time)..
Personally, I was impressed. I knew that Palm was doing well. But they are doing better than I expected. I still think they get one quarter of eww before being totally good again, but I also think this call made them even more ripe for acquisition. The year will be interesting. It is for me, and I only have a Treo to speak for it ;-)
mobileministrymagazine.com
antoinerjwright.com
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
First about the handhelds comment they made: honestly I think that if Palm wants to keep the PDA dev small and make it a true 25% of revenue, then they will bring out a new model that will call attention again to the PDA side. My guess is either an LD or T with some "needed" specs and a good price. Doing that will keep interest there and make the leaving of HP to the space better for them. It would have to be a good one though, I am in the same belief that the TX and E2 are selling nicely. For Palm to tweak that formula some now would be good.
Second comment (sorry posting via treo and mobile PIC doesn't do discussion posts); I expect Palm to bring out an all new Treo in Oct, maybe Nov. The Holloywood GSM one. The P should be a summer intro, late May keeping the pressure on themselves to execute (my fav word on that call today). A P done right would give the competitive numbers needed to really put palm on the burner come that question in the next earnings call (not like how they skipped around it this time)..
Personally, I was impressed. I knew that Palm was doing well. But they are doing better than I expected. I still think they get one quarter of eww before being totally good again, but I also think this call made them even more ripe for acquisition. The year will be interesting. It is for me, and I only have a Treo to speak for it ;-)
mobileministrymagazine.com
antoinerjwright.com
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Consider the hints that make this somewhat credible:
1) The same source that first leaked in Nov '04 (correctly as we now know) that Palm was exploring Windows Mobile also reported that they were exploring partnerships to develop a "a tailored version of the Linux OS to run on its devices." That was almost a year and a half ago. Plenty of time to have their own Linux version of Palm OS ready.
2) Someone close to Wind River dropped hints last year that they were partnering with Palm on a Linux phone. They called it a "feature phone" as I recall, but your guess is as good as mine what that might mean. Maybe it's Lowrider.
3) Moving outside the realm of rumor now, Palm has been hiring Linux engineers for at least the last 7 months that I've been watching. They had postings for 17 Linux engineers back in September and there are 16 engineering positions on their site right now that mention Linux experience as a qualification. Most don't have Linux in the description of duties as they did back in September, but one of them seems pretty revealing:
Linux Engineer- Mobile Handset, Embedded Systems
Overview:
As a senior software engineer, you will play a key role in the architecture, design and implementation of enabling technologies for a new generation of Palm devices. Working as part of the overall system team, you will work on the underlying support for various software applications.
Duties/Responsibilities:
You will be responsible for the design and development of components of a new software platform.
Nothing conclusive that this is about developing a Linux platform for the Treo, although the job title does say "mobile handset." Whatever you make of this it sure doesn't sound like Palm is sitting on their hands between now and whenever ALP is released.
If I were Palm, I'd be working on something like ALP without MAX right now. Just the Garnet emulator and a few native GTK+ apps that could provide multitasking in the area where it's most critical: phone, browser, email, messaging, media playback. Even if you couldn't run multiple Palm OS apps concurrently, you could at least run those native apps in their own processes while a single other Palm OS app was running in the emulator. This would solve the problem of getting the Palm OS to comply with the UMTS standard so it can run on GSM 3G networks. It would position them well from an engineering standpoint if they decide to migrate to ALP when that time comes. And it would give them experience and credibility if they opted instead for a more full-fledged Linux platform of their own in the future.
ALP may not be "Palm OS", but that doesn't mean the next version of Palm OS couldn't still be Linux.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
The first leak that Palm was exploring Linux: http://tinyurl.com/n7zpr
The rumor about Palm partnering on a Linux phone with Wind River: http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS5058819583.html (some of this obviously turned out to be false, like the timeline).
And Palm's job postings: http://www.palm.com/us/company/jobs/
It's all a matter pure speculation what this means, of course, but it sure seems like something Linuxy is cooking in the basement at Palm Inc.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Palm would be remiss if they did not talk to Wind River, but there's a long distance between "talking to" and "developing a phone with".
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
It has been my experience that linuxdevices is, um, optimistic in its interpretation of the rumors it hears.
Agreed. Though you have to ask how much interpretation (ruling out pure fabrication) could result in "Our anonymous sources confirmed that Palm's first Linux-based handsets will use a version of Linux developed by Wind River" meaning something much different from what those sources actually said. If the information is wrong, I'd say it's more likely the fault of the sources than LinuxDevices.
Palm would be remiss if they did not talk to Wind River, but there's a long distance between "talking to" and "developing a phone with".
Sure. So how long is the distance between hiring Linux handset engineers "for the design and development of components of a new software platform" and designing and building a new software platform? I'd say that closes the gap considerably.
It may actually have nothing to do with Treos (could be Palm's "Third Business" ramping up, for example) but from where I stand it sure looks like Palm has moved some kind of Linux project out of the research phase and into development.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
WinMob may turn out to be either a nice side-line, or a short-lived survivalist stop-gap - but I'm convinced that Palm want their own in-house platform again and will settle on a policy that focuses more on shifting hardware than it does on licensing software to third parties (although I don't expect Palm to give up licensing their software altogether).
Other Palm job descriptions in recent months have indicated a big rewrite of the basic PIM applications is underway. Can't think why this would be happening unless some fundamental platform changes are 'in the oven'.
KultiVator
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
I think it's safe to say that Palm is involved in some Linux project, or they wouldn't be hiring Linux people. But that doesn't say who they're working with. Maybe they picked Wind River, although why pick the new kid on the block? Maybe they're working with MontaVista, like PalmSource was? Maybe they're working with Access on an ALP phone?
A company that is buying a Linux solution from a third party is going to hire at least a few Linux engineers to do the integration and so forth in house. Palm is know to have modified large junks of PalmOS even when they were buying it from PalmSource, so buying a solution and then tweaking it would fit that job description.
If I were to speculate, I'd guess Palm is exploring a Linux phone (something they've been rumored to be doing for years, anyway,) but I wouldn't go so far as to guess that they're working with Wind River.
Players in this space these days are: (in no particular order)
MontaVista - has shipped product in the telephony space
Access - has (through CMS) shipped product in the telephony space
Wind River - hasn't yet shipped product in the telephony space, reasonably new to Linux
Handheld.org - well, they exist, anyway.
Trolltech - (see handheld.org)
Nokia - maemo doesn't do telephony.
If I were Palm and interested in adding Linux, I'd be working with my hardware vendors and one or more of MontaVista and Access. I don't think I'd work with any of the others, unless my hardware vendor was working with them and trying hard to convince me to.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
From what I understand, whether or not they partner with Wind River for kernel-related stuff has nothing to do with the question of whether they're working with PalmSource and ACCESS, since we keep being told ALP can be BYOK (bring your own kernel). If they wanted to do something like what I suggested and build a phone with just a Garnet emulator and a few native Linux apps it would make seem to make a lot of sense to be working together with PalmSource on GHost.
One of the interesting things about the ALP design is that it seems to open the possibility of incremental adoption by current Palm OS licensees. What would keep ACCESS from licensing an early version of ALP to Palm without the MAX framework? Sounds like a good way to convince an important licensee who was otherwise nervous about your platform (particularly its timeline) to give you a try. Fix their Garnet problems first with UMTS support and improved multitasking. Then up-sell them on the whole enchilada when it's ready.
Again, we're completely in the realm of speculation now, but it's interesting to consider that ALP could be quite useful to Palm this year even without the MAX framework.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Just as a side question - many people (including me) said Palm went WM to get EVDO, but the Treo 700p obviously disproves that, and its been said the radio is quite separate from the OS, meaning any radio can be plugged in, and used just like any data connection.
Does Palm really need to go Linux for UMTS?
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Does Palm need to go to Linux? No, they could probably do it other ways. Could they do it in Garnet? Only with a significant rework of Garnet, it seems to me.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
That would amount to POSE on top of a Linux kernel: all the disadvantages of the PalmOS single tasking model, all the overhead of a multitasking OS.
They could do that, but it would be slow.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
This is obviously a technical question beyond my ken, but how is UMTS different from EVDO in this? Is it the requirement from video and voice at the same time?
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Don't hold me to this as I am not an expert (not a GSM user) but I think EVDO, in its current/initial rev, cannot receive a call while in the midst of a data session. Future revisions to the EVDO spec will permit this, much in the way the 700w user can choose to send a SMS to someone if they don't want to take the call.
UMTS can handle simultaneous data & voice transmission and/or have an incoming call come in then resume the data session when the call is finished--if not actually continuing the data seesion in the background while the voice call is in progress.
Anyone else in the know feel free to point out any additional diferences or correct me on this.
It is widely said that EDGE/EVDO is much less taxing on the software/OS side of things as well as easier to implement than their GTSM equivalents. That might explain Palm's immediate attraction to Sprint & Verizon for a final POS Treo or two vs. throwing in the towel on the GSM POS market after the 650 or perhaps the "slow" budget oriented Lowrider.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
all the disadvantages of the PalmOS single tasking model, all the overhead of a multitasking OS.
I agree that this would be kind of pointless if the platform ran all its apps in the Garnet emulator. But consider that Garnet's single-tasking could be considerably relieved if only a handful of critical apps could run natively in their own processes, separate from the emulator. The ones that would make the difference would be the ones that relate to the fundamental wireless data and telephony features of the Treo. Again: phone, browser, email client, messaging client, streaming media player. If those apps were written against GTK over DirectFB (no X Windows: they don't care about 3rd party contributions from the Linux side here) it seems to me Palm might have a pretty good stop-gap platform that they could call Palm OS 7. Without running an X server, I suspect the performance could be improved considerably--probably within spitting distance of Windows Mobile at least.
Assuming that Palm didn't clinch the decision to move their Linux experiments out of skunkworks and into production plans until they lost the bid for PalmSource in the Fall of last year (that's when I first noticed all the Linux engineer job postings) don't you think they could have a platform like this ready to ship in some handsets by the end of this year?
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
If the 'skunkworks' (which I don't think exists) had a working prototype that needed debugging and productizing, end of this year, for sure.
If the 'skunkworks' had at the end of last year something more or less the equivalent of the PSRC developer conference demo but running on Palm hardware, middle of next year more likely, and I'd bet on the end of next year to be safe.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
UMTS can handle simultaneous data & voice transmission and/or have an incoming call come in then resume the data session when the call is finished--if not actually continuing the data seesion in the background while the voice call is in progress.
I'm not an expert in this either but it's my understanding that the UMTS standard requires *concurrent* data and voice, and that that is where Garnet gets into trouble. I don't think putting the data transmission on hold during a call meets the standard, even if the transmission is resumed gracefully after the call ends.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
the 'skunkworks' (which I don't think exists)...
Ask Ben Combee some time what he does for Palm and you might change your mind.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
I just tested this with my 3G UMTS phone (Sony Ericsson v800) and to my amazement I would actually download data to my PDA over bluetooth (browsing the web) while in a voice conversation. I did not actually know it was possible, as the phone itself does not provide any multi-tasking interface.
Its a bit telling however that even a dumb phone can do voice and transfer data at the same time on 3 G. I'm sure garnet could do this too.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
I have no idea what the OS is. Its certainly not Symbian, and as Ive said, there is no interface to expose multi-tasking. When I'm in a phone call there is no way to start any app or go to the normal menu. I suspect its as single tasking as garnet.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
This differs from Garnet because Garnet presented only a single user task and only has a single tasking kernel.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
See http://developer.sonyericsson.com/getDocument.do?docID=75136 for an excellent but detailed explanation of UMTS and when it does or does not require concurrency, by the way.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Garnet presented only a single user task and only has a single tasking kernel.
You know your Linux, Marty, but you don't know your Palm OS :-P
The problem is not the kernel. The Garnet kernel and the Kadak kernel that preceded it on the 68k processor are both preemptive multitasking kernels. The problem is the UI framework. All Palm applications run as subroutines of a single UIAS (User Interface Application Shell). It's possible for applications to get the system to spawn new non-UI tasks--always has been. The Sync application has always does this, for example, and so do some audio playback applications that use a new capability for background audio playback introduced with OS 5. What's not possible in Garnet's architecture is for two applications (like phone and browser) to run at the same time and manage application concerns like UI interaction and memory.
It seems to me that Palm might yet be able to hack their way around this if they create a second framework parallel with Garnet. At the most minimal level it might exist only to run the phone application and provide UMTS compliance. As a very short-term solution to the problem that most GSM operators outside the US aren't interested in new handsets that aren't 3G, this might be ok.
But even if they do this, beyond the next year or two Palm is certainly going to be looking for a new platform--either one they'll license from ACCESS/PalmSource, or one they create for themselves that they can call "Palm OS". All other advantages aside, just from a marketing standpoint the latter option may look appealing. The ACCESS acquisition may have pushed them in that direction.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
All things considered, they may simply decide to leave UMTS out of the GSM 700x models.
I doubt that. I think Palm is serious about penetrating the global market, not just selling to the US. They need some way to comply with UMTS and it's going to involve some kind of framework development, either on top of the existing Garnet kernel (temporarily, as I just described) or on top of a new kernel like Linux.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
David, is POS UMTS capable?
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Too true. thanks for the clarification.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Disclaimer: I haven't tried this yet; I may have misunderstood how this works.
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
A curiosity - the Mobile High Speed software allows a Palm OS device (including Treos) to be configured to various 3G networks, including UTMS - I wonder if the developers know something that we don't?
I don't know, but don't misunderstand: there's no reason that I know of why Garnet can't work just as well on a UMTS network as it would on EV-DO. It's just a matter of UMTS holding phones to a stricter standards for concurrent data and voice than EV-DO does. It's my understanding that a Treo just won't pass the testing for UMTS if it puts data calls on hold to take a voice call, whereas this is allowable on EV-DO.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Sure, but UMTS isn't neccessarily required for that. There are still quite a few smartphones out there that only have EDGE, and the additional percentage of people who would buy a Treo over another device because of UMTS might not be worth, in Palm's view, the cost of implementation. Just a thought.
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
There are still quite a few smartphones out there that only have EDGE, and the additional percentage of people who would buy a Treo over another device because of UMTS might not be worth, in Palm's view, the cost of implementation.
I agree with you, but I think the operators (the Treo's real customers) see it differently. From what I understand, their interest in putting non-3G handsets into the hands of their subscribers has dropped off markedly over the last year. They've got these huge investments in the new networks and they're anxious to move subscribers onto handsets that will use them.
Then there's Jeff Hawkins who can't resist dropping hints about Palm's secret new class of product without telling anyone what it is. Any time it comes up it seems to be presented in the same breath as this vision of "ubiquitous high-bandwidth Internet" and "massive amounts of storage." Just another reason that I suspect Palm wants to have a platform that will support all the popular (or soon to be made popular) broadband wireless standards.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
FWIW, I don't think Hawkins is paying attention any more. He's off playing with his AI stuff, and I'm sure that's keeping him busy.
but if he's thinking about media players, that's an insanely competive market.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
A few days ago, I expressed my nervousness to a prominent executive at Palm, Inc. I asked her for some kind of statement that would at least show that her company is seriously considering the idea of using Palm OS for Linux.
She wrote me back and clearly expressed her company's strong support for the Palm OS, but made no mention of the Linux-based version.
Is anyone else wondering whether a statement like this shouldn't be read from the viewpoint that Palm doesn't consider ALP to be "Palm OS for Linux" or "Palm OS" at all? Who alone can put the name "Palm" on an OS? When Palm Inc. says they strongly support the "Palm OS" wouldn't we now have to read that as support for an OS that Palm itself owns and maintains? To me, statements like this combined with Palm's silence about the ALP announcement and Linux hiring make it harder and harder to deny that Palm is creating their own "Palm OS for Linux."
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
I can't imagine how anyone, looking at ALP, could not realize that POSfL is dead and with it Palm OS.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
"That's in large measure going to be up to the licensee, I expect. Historically, we've supported a high degree of customizability of the system and flexibility as regards hardware, and that's been a key advantage of Palm OS over Windows Mobile, etc. I don't think those things will change. I imagine there'll continue to be certification processes, etc., but that's not really my department."
While that refers more to hardware than the UI, it's still encouraging that Palm would be able to customise it to be more "PalmOS-like".
But then, if Palm *are* coming up with their own in-house OS, then they probably don't care.
This sig is a placeholder till I come up with something good
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
I can't imagine how anyone, looking at ALP, could not realize that POSfL is dead and with it Palm OS.
Only if you think PalmSource is the only possible maker of the Palm OS. But if you really get down to it, that ceased to be true in May of last year when Palm bought the right to the brand and told PalmSource they'd have to come up with another name for their OS. Since that occurred the question of whether the Palm OS was "dead" or not was really a question of whether the developers and users would migrate happily to whatever OS came next. If the Palm economy went there, it's alive in the same way the Mac OS is alive in the form of OS X.
Instead of playing word games for dramatic effect though, let's just note that there's a second way for Palm OS to keep living now, and it has nothing at all to do with what PalmSource or ACCESS does or how or where it is received. If Palm partners up with some Linux shop like MontaVista, Trolltech or Wind River and makes a platform that runs 68k apps and gains the favor of most of the Palm users and developers, then that platform is the new Palm OS. It will be called that, and by the same standard that OSX is the Mac OS, it will be it. It seems to me that this is what the conversation is about.
My point was just to (somewhat facetiously) point out that when Palm uses the word "Palm" OS they use it as any other company would use their brand name: as something they own, not something they license from another company. Where people seem to take their statements of support for "Palm OS" as infuriatingly ambiguous, I submit that they are being quite clear. They are stating their support for the only OS that can have the Palm name: the one they themselves are building.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Palm may be in the OS business again, but I doubt it.
Although they bought back the name, they did not buy back the IP, so any OS from Palm, no matter what it is called will have to be something other than PalmOS in the sense above.
ALP is a Linux OS developed by Access, initialy aimed at the Asian market, and other than lip service, in the form of the POSE bolt-on, has no PalmOS component.
Access doesn't care about the Palm Economy. ALP is no more the next PalmOS because people who formerly developed PalmOS software will develop for it than Windows/XP is the next MacOS because people who foormerly ran Adobe products on MacOS now run them on Windows/XP.
As for the clever word games, please note that PalmSource has the right to the Palm name for another few years, so, technically, Palm is not the only company that can call a new OS PalmOS. (Access, of course, has no reason to reuse the name and this is as good a time as any for dissassociating from it.)
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Evolution of PalmOS the set of UIs and APIs people are familiar with from Garnet, has ended. Garnet was its last realization. I call that dead.
Just like the Mac OS classic UIs and APIs. The problem with the "death" metaphor is that it suggests an objective physical state outside of any social context or understanding. If you want to talk about whether Palm developers will develop for the new platform or not and whether Palm customers will buy devices and think of it as the evolution of Palm OS or not, that would be a conversation about whether Palm OS will die or not in a meaningful sense.
As for the question of evolution, I get conflicting answers from PalmSource engineers as to whether MAX is going to preserve most of the Palm OS APIs or pretty much start from scratch in that department. I'm not sure whether PalmSource itself knows the answer to that question. Perhaps it's been a while since the Mont Pelier and Sunnyvale people sat down over a few beers and talked DmOpenDatabaseByTypeCreator like back in the good ol' days. That's the problem with the global economy.
Palm may be in the OS business again, but I doubt it.
If you mean the business of licensing their own OS to others, I doubt it too. If you mean creating their own Linux OS from scratch, probably not that business either. If we're talking about modifying and adding some pieces to a system that they got from another Linux vendor, well, that's still a stretch but I'm finding it harder to completely discount it these days. Let's just say I'm curious to find out.
Although they bought back the name, they did not buy back the IP, so any OS from Palm, no matter what it is called will have to be something other than PalmOS in the sense above.
There are some things they'd need to keep licensing from ACCESS, fer sure. Garnet for the emulator and the Palm Desktop software, for example. Similar look and feel and API familiarity are not patentable IP, though, AFAIK.
ALP is a Linux OS developed by Access, initialy aimed at the Asian market, and other than lip service, in the form of the POSE bolt-on, has no PalmOS component.
Sad, I know. Makes you wonder what all the Palm OS users and developers in the rest of the world, doesn't it? I wonder if anyone else might be wondering about that.
ALP is no more the next PalmOS because people who formerly developed PalmOS software will develop for it than Windows/XP is the next MacOS because people who foormerly ran Adobe products on MacOS now run them on Windows/XP.
Agreed.
As for the clever word games, please note that PalmSource has the right to the Palm name for another few years, so, technically, Palm is not the only company that can call a new OS PalmOS. (Access, of course, has no reason to reuse the name and this is as good a time as any for dissassociating from it.)
Two years if they complete their platform as promised. If there were the faintest whiff of a chance that ALP would be called "Palm OS" for a two year stint it would have been called that in February. There ain't and it wasn't. All that remains is to rename Palm Desktop and PalmSource itself. Lord, I hope they don't get saddled with "ALPSource"! :D
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
If you mean the business of licensing their own OS to others, I doubt it too. If you mean creating their own Linux OS from scratch, probably not that business either. If we're talking about modifying and adding some pieces to a system that they got from another Linux vendor, well, that's still a stretch but I'm finding it harder to completely discount it these days. Let's just say I'm curious to find out.
Well, since they modified and added to WinMobile, and they modifed and added to Garnet, it's not much of a stretch to imagine them modifying and adding to Linux.
But I wonder why they'd bother with three platforms if they could get away with Garnet on disconnected pdas and winmob on smartphones.
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: Breakdown of the new Treos
Or use ALP and get three platforms in one :-p
Seriously, I wonder too. If someone would put a tail on Jeff Hawkins and see what he's doing with his little block of wood these days maybe we could find out.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
29% of Treo 650 owners bought a 700w?!?
Huh? Ryan, did you misquote this or did they really say that? That would be impossible. If so, they're claiming that 29% of all registered Treo 650 owners have bought a Treo 700w? Again...impossible. My guess is that the correct statement would read that "29% of registered 650 customers who bought a 700w switched carriers to do so."
http://Tapland.com
- Tapwave Zodiac News, Reviews, & Discussion -
RE: 29% of Treo 650 owners bought a 700w?!?
29% of people that bought a Treo 650 and registered their device with Palm said they switched carriers to just get the treo 650.
Wow! The wince shills were wrong. :)
I guess HK, Surur, and adama are going to have to eat humble pie? :)
------
"People who like M$ products tend to be insecure crowd-following newbies lacking in experience and imagination."
RE: Wow! The wince shills were wrong. :)
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
12-key Treo Lowrider?
Did we just get a giant hint dropped in our laps about the Treo Lowrider? Did he describe a 12-key Treo? Is that the Lowrider? Or a 2007 model?
Or did he say people with 12-key feature phones will want to "naturally evolve" to QWERTY smartphones?
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
Definitely the later. My only problem with his thesis that people would want to upgrade from their feature phones to smartphones, is that often the smartphones have less features that their feature phones e.g. FM radios, high megapixel cameras, Itunes etc. They should do more to reduce the downside of "upgrading".
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
e.g if this ( http://blog.treonauts.com/2006/03/treo_lowrider_i.html ) is the real Lowrider Palm might as well commit suicide.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
What I want to see is essentially a TX with a cellular radio onboard and no thumbboard. Of course it'd need a mic for voice recording and VOIP. There's no way the carriers would go for such a beast, however.
Heck I'd even take a T|C style device that's 320*480 with a thumboard and no voice. I could care less about voice functionality if I have a super thin RAZR or SLVR in my other pocket.
I expect the lowrider Palm to have the standard d-pad + app button arrangement + a 12 digit keypad. It will likely rely more heavily on Graffiti input than a conventional Treo 600/650.
Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
I understand there are some websites that makes money from ad impressions, and the more people visit the more money they make. That might just be one of those internet rumor though...
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
Thats a very profound comment Rome. You really know the smartphone market. Thanks for telling us your opinion of 12 key Treo.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
What I want to see is essentially a TX with a cellular radio onboard and no thumbboard. Of course it'd need a mic for voice recording and VOIP.
If they made this my company would buy 600 of them. Are you listening, Ed? 600. You could put that in your next WSJ interview. :-)
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
Safely ignored without further comment.
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
Interestingly, the first ALP smartphones will likely have 12 keys. From what David S said they are building on the Rome GUI, which is more smartphone than PDA-phone directed.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
(and to have a touchscreen)
May You Live in Interesting Times
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
I said first ALP smartphones, but not first Palm ALP smartphones. Access is building ALP to order, and that orders are not from Palm, but from DoCoMo.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
We agree that the first Alp 12 key phone won't be from Palm, although I don't think that Access is building to DoCoMo order. DoCoMo is definitely a big influence, but so's the Chinese market.
May You Live in Interesting Times
Where are new Treos
=====================
Free downloads http://www.apple-music.co.uk/
RE: 12-key Treo Lowrider?
Sprint will get - what? - a plain-old 700w? Or will they ALSO get a "new" TREO 700 that has, say, a Sprint-specific application tacked on like whatever Nextel calls their "instant" connectivity. Ta da! "New" TREO!
Wonder how The Market would respond to THAT!
Waiting with bated breath...
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The LD is dead. The TX is dead.
$100 million/ 765 000 devices = $130 We are talking mostly Zire22's and a smattering of TX's.
When the R&D costs of developing handhelds exceed the profit they generate they will be dropped. This wont be long. As HP said, disconnected handhelds are dead.
Surur
They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...