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SD Card Dominance Projected

The SD association has released a report that brings together a number of recent analyst projections about the future acceptance of the SD memory format. The groups claims SD will take the lead in 2003 and become the dominant format by 2005.

According to recent reports by leading industry analyst organizations, the SD Memory Card will gain in global market share and consumer acceptance in 2003, and is well on its way to dominance of the international flash memory market. Among the projections and conclusions drawn by these organizations:

- Earlier this summer, an IDC report projected that SD would take the lead this year with a worldwide market share of 32.6%. According to its July 2003 report, the Boston-based analyst group ".believes that the SD Card format, including the new miniSD(tm), will take the lead and become the de facto standard in the flash card market." IDC projects SD will rise to a 50% market share in 2005, and gain a 56.6% market share in 2007, becoming the market standard.

- Gartner, Inc. also sees SD becoming the dominant format, reporting in their "Worldwide Flash Card Market History and Forecast Trends, 2001-2007"* study in August that, "SD's strengths lie in its ability to meet the needs of all applications from the point of view of size, performance, and security." The report notes that SD has a solid grip on the DSC market and is likely to play a larger part in the handheld computer segment because of its I/O abilities. It also reports that the miniSD Memory Card introduced earlier this year for mobile telephone applications will additionally fuel the format's growth.

- This is further confirmed in Germany by Nuremberg-based market research and business information firm, The Gfk Group, which verified that the SD Memory Card had become the flash memory format of choice for digital still cameras (DSC) for Germany in 2003 with a 39% share of DSC sales and had achieved tremendous growth in sales garnering 28.9% of the German flash memory market.

"In just three years, SD has taken the flash memory industry by storm, " said Ray Creech, president of the SD Card Association, "and is well on its way to becoming the industry standard. It will reach this goal, based on the technological strength of the format, the broad array of key manufacturers building SD products, and its ability to meet the digital lifestyle demands of consumers."

With the 2003 introduction of miniSD(tm), new SDIO products and higher capacity cards, the SD Memory Card is the clear choice for consumers' needs, according to Creech. By the end of September 2003, 1,524 products using the SD Memory Card have been introduced worldwide, carrying 134 of the world's better-known brand names, including, among others, Canon, Casio, HP, Palm, Panasonic, Sharp and Toshiba. The SD Memory Card also protects the consumer's investment in equipment for both existing and future products with compatibility from 8MB to 1GB and beyond, including miniSD.

"SD continues to succeed due to product innovations created with SD standards such as SDIO and SD applications, some of which can be viewed at Telecom 2003 in Geneva. We welcome show-goers to view the broad range of products that capitalize on the strength of the SD format by visiting Panasonic's booth 5010 in Hall 5," said James Taylor, SDA Global Marketing Committee Co-Chair. "Panasonic will be demonstrating new SDIO (Input/Output) products, such as wireless communication via 802.11b, that greatly enhance the capabilities of PDAs, such as HP's iPAQ and Palm's handheld Tungsten and Zire lines. They will also display a new Vodafone (Japan) mobile phone and its SD applications which utilize SD-Audio and SD-Video formats with CPRM copyright protection for secure distribution of digital content".

About the SD Card Association
The SD Card Association is an open industry standards organization established in January 2000 by leaders Matsushita Electric (Panasonic), SanDisk and Toshiba, supported by a consortium of over 650 companies. The SD Card Association's mission is to set industry standards and promote its wide acceptance in a variety of applications.

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Finally a Standard

fool faughter @ 10/13/2003 4:48:57 PM #
Wow, finally a standard. My current collection is, diskette, VHS, DVD, CD-R, I-Omega, cassette, Compact Flash and SD.

Oh, did somebody remind Sony of the new standard ?

RE: Finally a Standard
xenafan @ 10/13/2003 4:59:13 PM #
Yes finally a standard but lets hope they quiet frying in pdas. : )

RE: Finally a Standard
Palm Cow @ 10/13/2003 5:01:18 PM #
I totally agree! It's really nice to hear some good-ish news.

_____________________
Kevin | Iospeff
kevin707s@mchsi.com
Current PDA: SJ20
RE: Finally a Standard
Foo Fighter @ 10/13/2003 5:28:10 PM #
Quote: "My current collection is, diskette, VHS, DVD, CD-R, I-Omega, cassette,"

What do any of these formats have to do with Flash memory? SD isn't going to replace any of them. It will (in theory) replace Compact Flash and Smart Media, still a long way from that though.

On the plus side, Sony can kiss its lavender chewing gum stick format goodbye..in the long term.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Finally a Standard
Strider_mt2k @ 10/13/2003 5:33:15 PM #
Palm and Sandisk are both working very hard to encourage sales of new SD memory cards as we speak!

(I'm really sorry, but I couldn't resist.)

RE: Finally a Standard
The Ugly Truth @ 10/13/2003 5:41:56 PM #
Palm and Sandisk are both working very hard to encourage sales of new SD memory cards as we speak!

(I'm really sorry, but I couldn't resist.)


Are you referring to the T|T­³ (Tungsten|Toaster³)? It's blazing new territory as we speak...


Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Finally a Standard
fool faughter @ 10/13/2003 6:16:00 PM #
Data is data. Can you hear me now ?
RE: Finally a Standard
Foo Fighter @ 10/14/2003 10:47:58 AM #
Quote: "Data is data."

Not quite. SD is storage media for digital devices and peripherals, nothing more. It doesn't even offer enough storage capacity for movies, and costs would be astronomical. CD/DVD is the standard media for content distribution, which has replaced cassette format storage, like VHS. You're never going to see Movies or music albums on SD cards. Which is a pity because CD media is easily scratched and damaged. Most DVD movies I rent look like someone took sandpaper to the back of them, and are often full of digital artifacts. In the long term, broadband may end up replacing all forms of digital media distribution. Why buy an album in a music store when you can download the whole thing in minutes? Why drive to the video store to rent a DVD movie and return it several days later (wasting time and gas) when you can download it from the web. That's the promise of the future. At that point, data is data.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

What I'd like to know is...

Be3G @ 10/13/2003 5:27:40 PM #
...are the SD card manufacturers on track for all these super-big cards like 2, 4, 8, 16GB?

Thomas

Check out the *updated* Palm Tungsten|T review at www.comp-talk.co.uk

Well sure...

Strider_mt2k @ 10/13/2003 5:28:28 PM #
Sony done betamaxed itself out of another maket!

SD is extremely cool. I'm glad it's doing well.

Now where's all that great stuff the SD manufacturers paraded out years ago??

Panasonic, I'm looking in your direction!

:D

Hee...
Lucky Bob @ 10/13/2003 7:21:00 PM #
"Now where's all that great stuff the SD manufacturers paraded out years ago??"

It's sitting next to all the great stuff that Memory Stick manufacturers paraded out...

(Why do some people say you can kill two birds with one stone when it's hard enough killing one bird with two stones?)

RE: Well sure...
Strider_mt2k @ 10/14/2003 6:42:30 AM #
Good point.
Yo Sony, sup???

Don't believe everything you read

The Ugly Truth @ 10/13/2003 5:19:42 PM #
These industry analyst "predictions" are often little more than optimistic press releases paid for by the companies they mention. Didn't these analysts also "predict" that Pocket PC would have crushed Palm OS by now? Yes, that may eventually happen, but Palm still holds around 75% of the market.

I think SD/MMC is physically too small to be a reliable standard with the current level of technology. They are still choking on the I/O aspect of SD, while good old CompactFlash keeps soldiering on, as inexpensive and reliable as ever. When I get a digital camera, I'll make sure it has CF rather than SD/MMC. Even Memory Stick seems to be a better option than SD/MMC right now, but I still don't like Memory Stick's proprietary architecture. VHS vs. Beta, MiniDisc vs. DCC... when will it ever end?

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
mikemusick @ 10/13/2003 6:28:24 PM #
> They are still choking on the I/O aspect of SD

Exactly. The smaller you go, the more it costs to get product engineered and out the door, which means whatever it is you design, it's got to be something you'll be able to sell tens of thousands of. And then there's the issue of SDIO royalties, which hobbles small manufacturers.

SDIO is beyond the capability of most peripheral manufacturers, and most certainly out-of-reach of small-quantity industrial I/O companies. Palm needs to get real and be more supportive of an expansion formation like PCMCIA or CF, versus a memory format like SD.

RE: Don't believe everything you read
abosco @ 10/13/2003 6:34:54 PM #
As much as I feel like choking myself, I agree. From what I can tell, SD is NOT the future. Despite the pro-SD sentiment, CF has shown it doesn't require a bulky device, as the H2215 is a great size and has dual expansion. CF is the ideal expansion because it has high speeds, high capacity, and great peripheral/company backing. You're only kidding yourself when you say CF is on the way out. That statement has been downgraded to a myth. Now I know the people who read Brighthand and follow their opinions like a cult will refute this, but I just don't see CF on the way out.

Palm could easily integrate dual expansion in the way of SDIO and CF, but they've been quite ignorant to that for a while. I'll bet that's the only thing keeping people away from Palm. I repeat, integrate dual expansion in the TT3, and you'll have a product that's clearly head and shoulders above the rest.

-Bosco

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Bartman007 @ 10/13/2003 6:49:11 PM #
with no room for a battery?

RE: Don't believe everything you read
ganoe @ 10/13/2003 6:57:51 PM #
Sorry, but nearly every PDA and digital camera released this year has come with a SD slot. If you go to a store, most MP3 players you find there with slots use SD as well. This isn't some wishful thinking like the Pocket PC folks have about beating Palm. SD is here. Go to any store and look at the devices they carry.

RE: Don't believe everything you read
abosco @ 10/13/2003 7:15:07 PM #
The MP3 players use SD because that's basically the only format they CAN use if they want that small size.

To support my argument that CF is here to stay and SD isn't coming close anytime soon is this: take a look at peripherals. I can count on one hand how many SD peripherals there are. Two Bluetooth cards, Wifi card, Veo, and Margi Presenter. I count five. CF has an ungodly amount. The result? More choices and cheaper prices. Also, the price for 1 GB on CF is $150 at the cheapest. SD can't come close to touching that.

-Bosco

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Konstantin @ 10/13/2003 7:20:06 PM #
"When I get a digital camera,..."
heheheheheh , heheheheheheheheheheheh, hahahahahahahahahahahahahah HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

OMG I cant laugh anymore, my stomach hurts heheheheehehehe
hahahahahahahahahahaha...

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Konstantin @ 10/13/2003 7:29:29 PM #
When I grow up
There will be a day
When everybody has to do what ...

RE: Don't believe everything you read
ganoe @ 10/13/2003 9:44:59 PM #
> I can count on one hand how many SD peripherals there are.
> Two Bluetooth cards, Wifi card, Veo, and Margi Presenter.
> I count five. CF has an ungodly amount.

The article is about numbers of devices and cards sold. The number of I/O cards sold (SD or CF, total quantity) is very, very tiny in comparison to the nuber of flash memory cards.

> Also, the price for 1 GB on CF is $150 at the cheapest.

Most people don't buy $150 memory cards either. If your PDA, camera or MP3 player comes with a SD slot, you are not going to buy a CF card for it, period.

I certainly believe that there are some great advantages to CF, but if you go to a store and/or look at what is currently being sold on-line to consumers it's mostly SD. There are very few PDAs and cameras being sold currently with CF, and they are high end-models that sell in small quantities.

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Foo Fighter @ 10/13/2003 10:00:04 PM #
Quote: "but Palm still holds around 75%"

Actually, it only holds about 50% of the market.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Don't believe everything you read
dustbunny44 @ 10/13/2003 10:37:17 PM #
" The SD association has released a report that..."

Wow - the SD association releases a report that says that SD cards will be dominant in 2005. You really gotta believe that!

In other news, the CF association predicts CF modules will be dominant by 2004, Sony predicts that 'sticks will be dominant by Christmas, Iomega has proof that Zip disks will make a comeback this winter, a Taiwanese floppy-disk manufacturer says that floppy demand is soaring, and HP has proof that everyone will use printers to store their data on "floppy sheets of paper" any day now.

RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/13/2003 10:47:31 PM #
Sorry, but nearly every PDA and digital camera released this year has come with a SD slot.


Fortunately, the three best cameras (Olympus 5050, Nikon 5400 and Canon G5) in the range that I'm looking all use CompactFlash media. It's not a coincidence that the better quality cameras use this format. I can't speak for the lower end cameras, but common sense often has very little to do with design. The only reason I can see for using SD/MMC is if the device in question is tiny, as is the case with some new cameras and PDAs. I would gladly use a slightly larger camera if that was the only way I could get CF. In my case, I don't even have to make that compromise.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/13/2003 11:13:15 PM #
if you go to a store and/or look at what is currently being sold on-line to consumers it's mostly SD. There are very few PDAs and cameras being sold currently with CF, and they are high end-models that sell in small quantities.

I hadn't seen this comment when I made the above post. Regarding cameras, the last time I checked, manufacturers were all over the map, with CF, SD, Memory Stick and even a new format - xD - being used. I'll take your word that SD is becoming dominant in the low end.

The smaller size of SD may have a place in tiny MP3 players, but I believe almost any stand alone PDA that has SD could just as easily use CompactFlash. TRG/HandEra made a persuasive argument for the utility of CF in PDAs. Unfortunately, that argument fell on the deaf ears of the average consumer, leaving us stuck with SD peripheral vaporware, overpriced SD memory and SD cards being incinerated by the Tungsten|Toaster³.

I expect SD really won't be around for long. Expect the Memory Cartel (Memory Mafia?) to start pushing even smaller - and therefore more lucrative - formats in the near future. Sony is already doing this, much to the chagrin of early adopters. These format wars are all about finding ways to keep gouging consumers. I choose to not play that game. When the likes of Olympus, Nikon, HandEra, etc. are willing to listen and offer products that actually make sense, I support them. (I'm still waiting for Sony to announce a UX series CLIE with dual Memory Stick/non-crippled CompactFlash.)

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/13/2003 11:47:40 PM #
Quote: "but Palm still holds around 75%"

Actually, it only holds about 50% of the market.

I was referring to Palm OS, not Palm (or whatever they're calling themselves this week), the company. It also depends on how you define market share - current sales vs. cumulative sales.



Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Foo Fighter @ 10/13/2003 11:54:14 PM #
Quote: "I was referring to Palm OS, not Palm"

So was I. PalmOS has around 50% global marketshare. PPC has 35%.



-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/14/2003 12:09:05 AM #
Quote: "I was referring to Palm OS, not Palm"

So was I. PalmOS has around 50% global marketshare. PPC has 35%.


Current sales or cumulative sales? Please provide links to a site (not based in Redmond, Washington or Milpitas, California) confirming those numbers.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Foo Fighter @ 10/14/2003 1:21:10 AM #
RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/14/2003 1:47:59 AM #
Thanks for an interesting link. (The "pa1mOne, w00t l33t h4x0r5" comment was amusing.) I never trust Gartner data (I think they omit corporate sales), but it's probably true that PPC is finally gaining market share with its subsidized hardware. Still, this is a fairly recent phenomenon and with a significant number of old Palm OS units still being in active service, I think Palm's market share in terms of actual user base is more like 75%. (A lot of us still use Palms that are 3 - 5 years old. It's one of the advantages of the Palm OS.)

The trend definitely is there though, and Palm must be very concerned about upcoming $150 - $200 PPCs further eroding Palm's dominance. It's like watching the browser wars happening again, but in slow motion.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
mikecane @ 10/14/2003 8:54:13 AM #
>>>The trend definitely is there though, and Palm must be very concerned about upcoming $150 - $200 PPCs further eroding Palm's dominance.

Everyone acts as if the only difference between choosing Palm or PPC is price. Puhleeze!

RE: Don't believe everything you read
robrecht @ 10/14/2003 10:06:55 AM #
[B]I'm still waiting for Sony to announce a UX series CLIE with dual Memory Stick/non-crippled CompactFlash.[/B]

That'll be a long wait!

Thanks, robrecht

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Foo Fighter @ 10/14/2003 11:04:51 AM #
Quote: "I never trust Gartner data"

Well, who can you trust? There is no 100% accurate methodology for gauging the number or types of handhelds in circulation. Some firms measure actual sales at brick at mortar stores. Others count the number of units shipped by OEMs (which doesn't tell us how many were actually sold). By the way, Gartner does asses corporate sales. You're thinking of NPD, which measures only consumer retail sales. Or...if you really want a good laugh, you could take the vendor's word for it. PalmOne often boats they have some something like 25-30 million handhelds in circulation...but that figure includes the earliest models, which are no doubt buried in landfills across North America by now. Should those be included with the installed base? Mac users do the same thing, in an effort to inflate their presence in the market.

I would love to see a study giving us some definitive idea of what devices are really "out there". Simply going by personal experience, I would say the majority are older/cheaper PalmOS models. I see tons of Palm Vs, IIIs, some Handspring Visors. Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models. I've seen a number of PPCs throughout the year, but there again, it's always one of the cheap or discontinued models. But then again...the handheld market continues to whither. In 3-5 years these studies may be moot, if the PDA really is a dying product category.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Konstantin @ 10/14/2003 3:54:40 PM #
Hey Ughlee , wanna try the Sony QUALIA 016 ?

I bet you havent heard of that digital imaging device.
OMG its not CF , so sorry :(

Hehehehe

RE: Don't believe everything you read
The Ugly Truth @ 10/15/2003 9:51:45 AM #
Well, who can you trust?

Trust no one. The truth is out there Agent Mulder...


PalmOne often boats they have some something like 25-30 million handhelds in circulation...but that figure includes the earliest models, which are no doubt buried in landfills across North America by now. Should those be included with the installed base?

Maybe. A lot of those old models are actually still in use - to Palm's dismay. An original Pilot or Palm III works just as well (and in some ways better) today as any of the current models if you are primarily interested in having a basic address book + calendar, etc., so I think people that aren't technogeeks simply keep using what they have because it suits their needs.

I would love to see a study giving us some definitive idea of what devices are really "out there". Simply going by personal experience, I would say the majority are older/cheaper PalmOS models. I see tons of Palm Vs, IIIs, some Handspring Visors. Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models. I've seen a number of PPCs throughout the year, but there again, it's always one of the cheap or discontinued models. But then again...the handheld market continues to whither. In 3-5 years these studies may be moot, if the PDA really is a dying product category.

I agree with everything you say here. The III series and V series are by far the most common PDAs I see. I've seen only a handful of those boutique CLIEs - I think it's unlikely the average consumer is going to spend over $400 on a stand alone PDA these days given how cheap PCs and laptops have become. PDA vendors need to adjust their thinking to suit the realities of the market.

Integration into cell phones is the change that will finally bring PDAs to the Average Joette, but in doing so the stand alone market will probably collapse quickly. Has anyone seen a Sony-Ericsson Palm OS phone yet? That will be the coup de grace for stand alones.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Don't believe everything you read
mikecane @ 10/15/2003 10:17:56 AM #
>>>PalmOne often boats they have some something like 25-30 million handhelds in circulation...but that figure includes the earliest models, which are no doubt buried in landfills across North America by now.

Piffle! Doesn't Apple also count older Macs?

And a month ago I *finally* bought an Everex Freestyle, the original Palm-Sized PC that I had wanted instead if the Palm III I (thank god!) wound up with. Man, now *that* should've been landfill to begin with! But it's not; they're still available now and then on ebay (where I got mine; which, after playing with it for a few dull hours, went back into its box, where it eats AAAs while asleep!).

RE: Don't believe everything you read
Miss Clie @ 10/16/2003 11:41:22 AM #
Quote: Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models.

I have to admit I've only seen a few in actual use, but I have to mention that they're using them exclusively on the dreadful show "Threat Matrix". I howl with laughter when I see them taking high resolution pictures, and wirelessly transmitting all sorts of massive data using them.

RE: Don't believe everything you read
icantbelieve @ 12/4/2003 3:49:20 PM #
hahahaha
I honestly can't believe that you are all getting in a big fight over a MEMORY CARD. I made this account just because I thought it was so pathetic. Let's just be happy for some standardization. Does your life depend on which card makes it big? You really are a big group of nerds if you are arguing about this. GET A LIFE!

Room for Standards

Gabriel Morales @ 10/14/2003 9:52:11 AM #
I agree with the previous comments about CompactFlash. They come in bigger capacities, are not all that big and more affordable. My Canon uses CF. It would be nice to be able to plug it into my Palm and view and edit pictures there. Actually, it would be nice if all these portable devices had a common removable storage card format.

I think there is still room for SD on very small devices, though, as has been pointed out, and some devices could accept both SC and CF.

RE: Room for Standards
ganoe @ 10/14/2003 10:16:51 AM #

I'm still waiting for this PNY SD to CF adapter to come out. Second quarter 2003???

http://www.pny.com/pressroom/pressReleases/view.asp?pressID=64
http://www.positiveimagenews.com/reviews/hardware/pny/sdcf_adapter/

Then you could easily move images between your Canon and your Palm, if you were willing to use SD for storage.

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