Nagel Talks Up Future PalmSource Prospects

PalmSource CEO David Nagel has been busy giving interviews at the ITU Telecom World event in Switzerland. He gets candid on his thoughts of the competitions approach to the smartphone market and hints and some possible major new Palm OS licensees.

In an interview with the Dow Jones Newswire, Nagel sheds some light on the Palm OS smartphone market-share, PalmSource's business model and financial standing and talks with possible future licensees.

SonyEricsson
Nagel mentions that PalmSource is in ongoing talks with SonyEricsson. SonyEricsson currently makes smartphones based on the Symbian OS. In a previous interview, Sony CEO Nobuyuki Idei expressed some discontent with the current arrangement. "And I can't tell you why Sony has a Symbian OS on its phones and Palm OS on its PDAs. [ Laughs ] Even Bill Gates asked me if I was crazy."

The report goes on to mention that in the US, Palm OS smartphones have a 70-70% marketshare advantage on all smartphone systems.

Symbian
In a open interview at Silicon.com, Nagel talks about his view of the Symbian consortium, “As Nokia gets more and more apparent control everyone else [backs away]. Symbian’s position is weakened by all the ownership changes taking place and people assume Nokia will dominate.”

Microsoft
Nagel went on to share his thoughts about the fragmented Microsoft Windows Smartphone approach, “Microsoft says it has more than 25 licensees [for its Windows Mobile software] but I challenge anyone to name more than five. Most of them will never bring out products,” he said. “It’s crazy to take a small market and slice it 25 ways. Nobody makes any money.”

He continues that there will be more "top-tier" Palm OS licensee soon. Nagel goes on to hint that he would consider another licensee, such as Samsung, talking a equity stake in the company, as Sony had done.

Thanks to Gaurav for the tip.

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Rediculous

TTrules @ 10/15/2003 3:35:20 PM #
Why does Sony run 2 different opperating systems on their devices? It's time to make some changes, Sony

-Sniffer

One Palm to rule them all!

RE: Rediculous
Token User @ 10/15/2003 3:59:42 PM #
?? Why does GM make cars with different engine sizes under different brandnames ??

PDA - PalmOS
Cell- Symbian, plus own internal spec
PC - Comes with windows, runs Linux, BeOS, yada, yada, yada.

A PalmOS smartphone from SE would be cool, but does it really matter if the OS is suitable to the purpose of the device?

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

RE: Rediculous
hkklife @ 10/15/2003 4:45:29 PM #
I really, really wish Apple would get on the Palm bandwagon but I fear it's not going to happen.

Wouldn't it be wild if JVC, with its strong support for SD and recently delayed/canned PPC handheld line, stuck a toe in the water on this side of the ocean?

I really do think that PalmSource needs another "big" name to flaunt alongside Samsung and Sony....at the very least, Samsung should do an AV-centric non-smartphone handheld to give Sony some competition. Since I personally don't see the Tapwave machines going very far (they are *doomed* without any B&M retail presence for Christmas '03), wouldn't it be interesting if, say, Samsung and, say, Sega were to go tagteam style and produce a POS-based gaming machine...with some good emulators and a libary of Sega classics burned into the machine's rom ;-)



RE: Rediculous
Palm4u @ 10/15/2003 5:12:11 PM #
Sony Ericsson is doing great so far. Market share increasing day by day.

I think next Nokia will be doing something similar, just to capture more share.

Nokia-PPC?

================================
PDAs rule the world !

RE: Rediculous
Scott R @ 10/15/2003 7:21:12 PM #
"Why does Sony run 2 different opperating systems on their devices? It's time to make some changes, Sony"

It makes perfect sense to me. The Symbian OS is a better OS for smartphones than the Palm OS. Well, to be more specific, Series 60 (which I believe is Nokia's GUI flavor of the Symbian OS) is the superior smartphone platform. I'm not so sure about Sony-Ericsson's UIQ GUI. For that, I would agree that the Palm OS (or even PPC OS) may be a better choice.

Scott

http://TapLand.com
- Tapwave Zodiac News, Reviews, & Discussion -

RE: Rediculous
Foo Fighter @ 10/15/2003 10:50:17 PM #
Quote: The Symbian OS is a better OS for smartphones than the Palm OS.

Hate to say it, but I agree with you. For an actual Smartphone (not PDA-Phone), PalmOS is really a poor choice. Even the OS running on my LG phone offers a more natural interface than PalmOS's stylus centric GUI.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

Not Ridiculous
The Ugly Truth @ 10/15/2003 11:50:22 PM #
Why does Sony run 2 different opperating systems on their devices? It's time to make some changes, Sony

It's called hedging your bets. Sony covered all bases and saw what worked. They're now in a great position to choose any system they want. Just as in the PDA market, they have made some expensive experiments with the hardware, but this will pay off in the long run if they are able to clean up in the cell phone market. Sony was smart enough to invest in its attempt to increase market share and it's working.


Quote: The Symbian OS is a better OS for smartphones than the Palm OS.

Hate to say it, but I agree with you. For an actual Smartphone (not PDA-Phone), PalmOS is really a poor choice. Even the OS running on my LG phone offers a more natural interface than PalmOS's stylus centric GUI.

I'd have to disagree with that statement. Even for a phone that's not a full bore PDA-phone, a slightly massaged version of the Palm OS can be a very intuitive OS requiring no stylus input to work all major functions. (Exhibit A: Treo 600).

If you could get Palm OS and all of its apps in a phone that made zero compromises in terms of size, battery lfe, weight, etc. would you choose it over an equivalent Symbian phone? I would.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Rediculous
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:11:27 AM #
>>>For an actual Smartphone (not PDA-Phone), PalmOS is really a poor choice.

Baloney. You obviously have not tried the Treo 600. And how "smart" do you want your "smartphone" to be? Treo 600 is *damned* smart. The others are just pretenders.

RE: Rediculous
Foo Fighter @ 10/16/2003 10:15:34 AM #
The Treo 600 is a PDA phone, not a phone-phone. For that class, PalmOS is a poor fit. My LG phone makes a better smartphone. Hell, I'd rather have a MS Smartphone for that purpose.

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com
RE: Ridiculous - On today's menu: CROW
The Ugly Truth @ 10/16/2003 10:21:18 AM #
The Treo 600 is a PDA phone, not a phone-phone. For that class, PalmOS is a poor fit.

Write this comment down in your Palm as an alarmed Date Book entry for April 16, 2004 (six months from now). Then dine on tasty crow that night.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Ridiculous
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:40:23 AM #
>>>Hell, I'd rather have a MS Smartphone for that purpose.

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Not only haven't you tried the Treo 600, you've obviously never fondled that fekkin abomination, MS Smurfone! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

(Note I have corrected the Subject spelling...)

RE: Rediculous
Foo Fighter @ 10/16/2003 1:14:17 PM #
I didn't mean I would rather have a MS Smartphone than a Treo. I mean if I wanted a Smartphone that was purely a phone (read: no touch screen/stylus or PDA-like interface), I would rather have a dedicated SmartPhone OS like Symbian.

No I haven't seen the Treo 600. And thanks to Verizon I probably never will. I'm still waiting for them to offer Bluetooth phones!!!!!

-------------------------------
My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

RE: Rediculous
abosco @ 10/18/2003 2:20:53 PM #
>>And thanks to Verizon I probably never will. I'm still waiting for them to offer Bluetooth phones!!!!!

Get rid of Verizon and go for Cingular, T-Mobile, or AT&T. Even though Cingular has ridiculous data plans (can be tacked on to ANY plan, though), their GPRS service is very fast, I get great reception with my T616, and all of their voice plans are cheaper than the competition. I got my T616 for $99. There were three other Bluetooth phones available.

Oh, and after I got CoMa for the Clie, BT/IR connections over GPRS is a breeze.

And I still refuse to believe smartphones are going anywhere. Treos, MS Smartphones, SE's p800, and Nokia's Symbian phones (sans that hideous pear 3650 which people seem to love for some odd reason) have all failed miserably. All Nokias are hideously overstyled, too. I'll never touch another one of their phones again. I'm betting on Sony Ericsson to gain a lot of popularity.. I've already seen three other T616's, and SE's features for such a low price can't be touched by any other company.

-Bosco

RE: Rediculous
mikecane @ 10/18/2003 2:43:44 PM #
>>>No I haven't seen the Treo 600. And thanks to Verizon I probably never will. I'm still waiting for them to offer Bluetooth phones!!!!!

Someday someone At The Top will cotton to what's happening Down There in cellphones and show the backward SOB the door. (Riiight. This is Corporate America. B*st*rd will rise to be in charge of Verizon! There is No Hope, Foo!)

Environmental concerns

ander80 @ 10/15/2003 5:20:13 PM #
i know this topic is out of the mind and worries of many here. But hey, i should just give it a try.

I read loads of future market perspectives for mobiles based in the Palm OS platform, but as new laws are coming through in europe affecting the design of such technology, im brutally shocked that a "person in charge" in the european headquarters told me there is not environmental management running across the PalmOne company.

I know there is something wrong here, was she (yes, it was a she)repeatedly lying to me? palm has to stop including some illegal elements in their products, but how is dealing with this, if apparently there is no one involved in the issue in the old continent?

Can anyone tell me what is going on, or someone else who should I be contacting? David Nagel himself?

God student life is hard, even harder with a m105 :(

Agur

Ander Zabala, MSc Student

RE: Environmental concerns
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:12:46 AM #
Nagel is PalmSource, the software side. For hardware, it's Bradley at PalmOne.

RE: Environmental concerns
hoplites @ 10/16/2003 12:18:36 PM #
Wow somebody still believes the pretend split up actually makes a different.
RE: Environmental concerns
gfunkmagic @ 10/17/2003 12:00:02 PM #
SKA, you're an idiot...

Visit http://goodthatway.com/
-better living through better technology.
RE: Environmental concerns
hoplites @ 10/18/2003 1:20:32 AM #
Well thank you. I sure hope I don't turn into a genius like you. (ha ha.. )

BTW, How much market share you think Nagel can claim by mid next year? 20-30%? Tho' I still think by same time next year it will be 7-8%.

Boy predicting palm is so easy.

RE: Environmental concerns
The Ugly Truth @ 10/18/2003 2:06:43 AM #
Wow somebody still believes the pretend split up actually makes a different.

It is amazing to see how gullible people are. Palm says it will split the company and immediately people start to believe that they're actually going to split into two separate branches that make decisions independent of each other. Wake up. The "split" is nothing other than a charade put on to satisfy the SEC and to drive up the supposed value of the company prior to any overtures from Sony.


Boy predicting palm is so easy.

Unfortunately for them, that's true. Except when their executives pull boneheaded stunts like Mr. Nagel did earlier this week. Sony is understandably furious. Is anyone tracking the names of Palm executives dumping large amounts of Palm stocks?

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

what a dope

hoplites @ 10/15/2003 5:49:50 PM #
"The report goes on to mention that in the US, Palm OS smartphones have a 70-70% marketshare advantage on all smartphone systems. "

He might as well say Palm is controlling 100% of smartphone with built in thumboards.

It's a marketing statistic that really doesn't tell the whole picture. It's kinda like Palm suddenly trying to insist using NPD number when the number went south after years of fanning gartner marketshare religiously. The fact remainds, Treo doesn't save Handsprings and would likely not make Palm a profitable company either.

WHat happen in Europe? it was 70-80% too until SE come in with p800 and Orange with SPV. Now treo doesn't even register a blip in European smartphone market.

We'll see if he still can claim 70-80% market share 2 quarters from now. lol

RE: what a dope
Token User @ 10/15/2003 6:30:43 PM #
FWIW - Nagel is NOT claiming Palm has 70% of the market, he is talking PalmOS - includes Treo, T|W, Kyocera, and Samsung models. Slight distinction, but fundamental - hardware and software are (supposedly)seperate entities.

I'd still dispute the 70% figure.

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

RE: what a dope
hoplites @ 10/15/2003 6:37:08 PM #
Like I say it's all marketing statistic play. I dare him to say how many "units" is actually in that 70-80%, and I dare him to cite same source mid next year.

I wouldn't be surprised if that number is changing to 7-8%.

RE: what a dope
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:13:38 AM #
I see that ska's typing is improving. New meds?

Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?

dhchung @ 10/15/2003 9:57:27 PM #
as subject stated.
Can anyone give at least 5 examples?

RE: Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?
hoplites @ 10/15/2003 10:29:43 PM #
Just because mister Nagel only has two big customers, Palmone and Sony, doesn't mean the other guy doesn't hae big names too. Funny how Nagel says nobody makes any money. Palm inc, Handspring and Palmsource may not make any money, but HP and Dell are not in the business of loosing money.

The big five name?

HP, Dell, Toshiba, Casio, Viewsonic, Acer, Asus.

http://www.microsoft.com/windowsmobile/buyersguide/buy/ppc/default.mspx

RE: Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?
Admin @ 10/15/2003 10:48:29 PM #
I believe they are talking about MS Smartphone licensees not pocket pc brands
RE: Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?
hoplites @ 10/16/2003 1:29:17 AM #
What's so different about Microsoft smartphone approach than Palms? I certainly never heard general publick actually know Handpring is actually a phone company. Anybody actually go to store and buy "Palm phone" to a clerk? Or is it Sprint treo600?

It is brand name and model number, same as Palm. Motorola mpx200, Orange SPV, Tmobile, O2, Samsung sgh... etc.

I certainly think Motorola, Orange, Tmobile or Verizone are bigger name than Handspring or Palm. Nagel is trying to give impression that because Microsoft hasn't enter US market, hence nobody knows tsmartphone exist, as a sign that smartphone doesn't exist. Well, ask the european audiance and they will wonder the reverse.

And people wonder why he claims nobody makes money. His world view is skewed.

RE: Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?
Scott R @ 10/16/2003 1:46:03 AM #
So is "hoplites" Ska's username of the month?

Scott

http://TapLand.com
- Tapwave Zodiac News, Reviews, & Discussion -

RE: Anyone can name Microsoft's 25 licensees here?
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:14:48 AM #
I take back my earlier comment about his typing improving. Must've been sheer luck on his part.

Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company

The Ugly Truth @ 10/15/2003 11:00:34 PM #
As I've said before, Sony needs to get the Palm OS into their phones ASAP (so they can begin to seriously damage Nokia's core business). Palm OS/Palm apps + Sony Ericsson design = unbeatable marketing ploy.

But Palm isn't about to give away its only remaining real asset for free.


- Palm has been hemorrhaging money for years.
- Palm can't compete with the engineering and integrated manufacturing abilities of Sony in the PDA market.
- Palm knows it can't compete with Sony or Samsung in the PDA-phone market. (These two companies have huge R+D departments and unlimited resources, allowing them to put out four new generations of devices for every one that Palm can create.)
- Stand alone PDAs are a dead end market that will be a relatively small niche in a few years.
- Palm can't make money selling its hardware.
- Palm OS sales don't bring in much money either.

Palm inevitably will parlay Sony's need for its OS into a deal in which Sony purchases the OS +/- Palm for several hundred million. Licencing the OS to Sony would be akin to repeating the hara-kiri Palm did when it licenced the OS to other PDA manufacturers. Mr. Nagle isn't about to make that blunder twice, unless Sony is willing to pay an OS licence fee for its phones that is high enough to guarantee Palm long term (healthy) profitability.

The Treo 600 was a great Proof Of Concept that Palm has no doubt used in their pitch to Sony. A Palm OS T608 or T610 could potentially hurt Nokia in a major way next spring.

I expect a purchase by Sony before January 15, 2004.

At times like this I wonder, "WWMD?"

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
hoplites @ 10/16/2003 1:41:36 AM #
Nagel is trying to pull the same Sony -> Palm relationship. Sony innovate and hand over the code to Palm, where they can copy the technology and sell it later but at far higher volume.

treo600 team doesn't have anything to show for Q3/4 next year yet. That's a significant product gap if they plan to retain the smartphone market. And from the speed HS is working, it is very unlikely they will come up with anything quickly enough to fill that market time.

So, if Sony erricson can have a hardware ready soon enough, they can fill that gap while Palm is prepping for early 2005 model by copying what SE is done for late 2004.

It would be interesting to watch what microsoft moves is to counter this 'lose talk' on rumored cooperation.

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware compan
arielb @ 10/16/2003 4:13:26 AM #
it's funny. I go to cliesource and everyone is saying "oh Sony????? your ux 50 is toast compared to the T3. What are you going to do about PalmOne?????"
Remember the m505? Was that game over? I wouldn't worry too much about Palm

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
The Ugly Truth @ 10/16/2003 6:12:19 AM #
oh Sony????? your ux 50 is toast compared to the T3

I doubt that it's possible for Palm's new model to "toast" the UX-50. While the UX-50 may be tiny, it's nowhere small enough to fit into the new Tungsten's SD slot...

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
hoplites @ 10/16/2003 9:50:02 AM #
>>>>it's funny. I go to cliesource and everyone is saying "oh Sony????? your ux 50 is toast compared to the T3. What are you going to do about PalmOne?????"
Remember the m505? Was that game over? I wouldn't worry too much about Palm>>>

T|T3 screen is made by Sony. The hires driver is co-authored by Sony. If Sony is pissed and stop supplying key technology, Palm inc is screwed. Sony doesn't need Palm to survive, but Palm needs Sony to survive Otherwise palmies of the world will still spinning Palm IIIc as the best handheld ever and m505 has bright screen.

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:16:22 AM #
>>>T|T3 screen is made by Sony.

Who sez? What proof? Running LCD Analyzer and other such screen utils, the colors are *not* as vibrant or as true as CLIE screens (viz, NX80). If these are from Sony, PalmOne is getting the CLIE rejects.

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:17:55 AM #
>>>- Palm can't compete with the engineering and integrated manufacturing abilities of Sony in the PDA market.

Sony can't get a frigging STYLUS right and you're touting them?! And having in-house manufacturing is passe. Most major Japanese companies now send stuff out to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc, just like everyone else. Made in Japan is a rarity.

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
The Ugly Truth @ 10/16/2003 10:29:05 AM #
Sony can't get a frigging STYLUS right and you're touting them?! And having in-house manufacturing is passe. Most major Japanese companies now send stuff out to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc, just like everyone else. Made in Japan is a rarity.

You can keep your meaty stylus with a cheaply-made SD-toasting Chinese Palm and I'll take a high quality Japanese-made CLIE any day. People can always buy a $10 aftermarket stylus if they don't like the ones on the CLIEs. You can't replace a poorly-made PDA for $10.

Outsourcing manufacturing is a decision made simply to save money - not improve quality - or (as in Palm's case) because companies lack the capabilities to manufacture the goods by themselves.

And in case you didn't know, (regarding your other comment above), Sony has numerous LCDs available for purchase which all vary in quality and price. They even had provided the original m505 screen. Do you feel the UX-50 screen is the same quality as the NX screen? They're both CLIEs, aren't they?

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware company
mikecane @ 10/16/2003 10:43:44 AM #
>>>cheaply-made SD-toasting Chinese Palm

Oh stop. They'll fix that. (Soon, I hope!)

>>>People can always buy a $10 aftermarket stylus if they don't like the ones on the CLIEs.

Yeah, and carry it where? No REAL stylus can fit in a frigging CLIE stylus well!

>>>Outsourcing manufacturing is a decision made simply to save money - not improve quality - or (as in Palm's case) because companies lack the capabilities to manufacture the goods by themselves.

Gee, do you think that MS manufactures the XboX? Hello!

>>>And in case you didn't know, (regarding your other comment above), Sony has numerous LCDs available for purchase which all vary in quality and price. They even had provided the original m505 screen. Do you feel the UX-50 screen is the same quality as the NX screen? They're both CLIEs, aren't they?

Point granted. Yet all CLIE screens have very good color fidelity (even if their backlights differ in strength). I didn't expect Sony to sell screens with such poor color. There goes another reputation shot to hell...


RE: Sony PDA-phone = game over for Palm as a hardware compan
HandyMan @ 10/17/2003 3:23:54 PM #
Open up any colour PDA and there's a high probability that there's a Sony (C) on the screen components. Yes, even PocketPCs (e.g. older iPaqs, not sure about newer ones). Open up the non-SLR Canon digicams and you may find a Sony sensor in there. Toshiba or Casio digicams use Canon lenses. And all these devices may have Samdsung RAM and ICs in there. It's just the way the world works. If somebody makes it better than you do, why waste R&D. Just buy their parts.



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