Gartner Says WinCE Out-Shipped the Palm OS in Q3

Worldwide PDA shipments exceeded 2.8 million units, as Gartner Claims that for the first time Microsoft Windows CE licensees out shipped the Palm OS for the first time. Yet palmOne still retains the leading spot during a declining quarter.

The Microsoft Windows CE operating system accounted for 48.1 percent of worldwide PDA shipments in third quarter of 2004. Palm OS units represented 29.8 percent of the market, down from 46.9 percent market share in the same period last year (see table 1).

"The robust Microsoft Windows CE market has been driven in part by the wide choice of vendors," said Todd Kort, principal analyst in Gartner's Computing Platforms Worldwide group. "Business customers tend to steer clear of markets dominated by a single supplier, which is where the Palm OS market stands today."

"A decline in Palm OS shipments was expected in the third quarter of 2004, but not of this magnitude," Mr. Kort said. "The company is pouring the vast majority of its resources into its smartphone business. A reduction in the number of PDA models palmOne offers is expected in 2005."

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PDA Shipment Estimates by Operating System for 3Q04 (Units)


Company
3Q04 Shipments 3Q04 Market Share (%) 3Q03 Shipments 3Q03 Market Share (%) Growth (%)
Windows CE 1,375,866 48.1 1,037,874 41.2 32.6
Palm OS 850,821 29.8 1,181,202 46.9 -28.0
Research In Motion 565,000 19.8 123,775 4.9 356.5
Linux 24,500 0.9 48,550 1.9 -49.5
Others 42,620 1.5 125,745 5.0 -66.1
Total 2,858,807 100.0 2,517,146 100.0 13.6
Note: Totals do not include smartphones such as the Treo 600 or BlackBerry 7100 but include wireless PDAs such as the iPAQ 6315.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2004)

palmOne continued to lead the worldwide market in PDA hardware shipments, but its shipments declined 13.3 percent in the third quarter of 2004. PalmOne's market share totaled 26.2 percent, but Hewlett-Packard and Research In Motion showed substantial increases in shipments in the third quarter of 2003 (see Table 2).

Table 2
Preliminary Worldwide PDA Vendor Shipment Estimates for 3Q04 (Units)


Company
3Q04 Shipments 3Q04 Market Share (%) 3Q03 Shipments 3Q03 Market Share (%) Growth (%)
PalmOne 748,950 26.2 863,993 34.3 -13.3
Hewlett-Packard 692,113 24.2 578,500 23.0 19.6
Research In Motion 565,000 19.8 123,775 4.9 356.5
Dell 185,300 6.5 134,813 5.4 37.4
Symbol Technologies 63,521 2.2 72,690 2.9 -12.6
Others 603,923 21.1 743,375 29.5 -18.8
Total 2,858,807 100.0 2,517,146 100.0 13.6
Note: Totals do not include smartphones such as the Treo 600 or BlackBerry 7100 but include wireless PDAs such as the iPAQ 6315.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 2004)

"Demand for wireless e-mail continues to increase as the primary driver of new PDA deployments. The shipment growth of Research In Motion nearly balances the decline of Palm OS, Linux, Symbian and proprietary PDAs," Mr. Kort said. "We expect worldwide PDA shipments to total 11.9 million units in 2004, up approximately 4 percent from 2003."

Additional information is available in the Gartner Alert Windows CE Surpasses Palm OS in 3Q04. The Alert provides preliminary results for the worldwide and U.S. PDA market, as well overall shipments on a regional basis.

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Not sure what this really means...

JohnM @ 11/12/2004 1:27:25 PM #
Hi,

I've seen all kinds of artciles like this recently. I remember
seeing the question of "what is considered a PDA?" being raised,
but I'm starting to wonder what "ships" means. Does shipping a
handheld to a store to be potentially be purchased constitute
a device that has "shipped"? Or does shipped mean actually
purchased (and not ever returned)?

John

Independent Palm Software Developer

RE: Not sure what this really means...
CaptMyCapt @ 11/12/2004 1:55:35 PM #
Excellent question. Be that as it may, at the end of the day the results are the same. If the definition of shipments has been the same, year over year, then it doesn't matter. It's apples to apples. PalmOne is hurting, and WinCE appears to be in a happy place.

I, Captain

"You will never make progress trying to sail into the wind - chart your course!"

RE: Not sure what this really means...
RhinoSteve @ 11/12/2004 2:11:14 PM #
"Ship" means sent to a warehouse for distrubution in these terms. It does not mean shipped to a paying customer. This is the latest recipe in book cooking that Gartner has done trying to promote Palm OS.

Now if you look at real and valid statistics like "Unreturned units delivered to customers that paid within thirty to sixty days." Then you have something meaningful. With that, you see Palm OS way ahead of WinCE devices since WinCE / PocketPC deivces have a very high return rate.

More spin form the Microsoft lapdogs in my opinon.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
Rome @ 11/12/2004 2:14:37 PM #
I think that windows CE includes several different operating systems, such as Pocket PC, Windows Mobile, and Windows CE. Symbol technology mainly sells industrial type of PDAs. Not to mention that this survey didn't include any Treo sales or perhaps other Palm OS smartphone sales.....but Gartner chose to include RIMM's Blackberry devices. Go figure!!!



RE: Not sure what this really means...
AyDb @ 11/12/2004 2:50:27 PM #
"With that, you see Palm OS way ahead of WinCE devices since WinCE / PocketPC deivces have a very high return rate."

Funny, I've never seen anything to indicate that PPC has any higher of a return rate than Palm. I suspect that you're pulling this 'fact' out of your never-ending stash of platform bias. If you've got actual evidence, please present it. If your backup is the same unsubstaniated tripe about how horrible PocketPC is to use that every other Palm crusader around here spouts without ever having touched a PocketPC, please don't bother.

By the way, PocketPC and Windows Mobile are two names for the same thing, and sales of actual raw "Windows CE" devices are next to non-existant. These numbers aren't faked, kids.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
ganoe @ 11/12/2004 3:22:39 PM #
Yes, the use of the term PDA is rather open as far as what devices this might include. Windows CE runs of plenty of devices that could be called PDAs, but not be what people on this site would traditionally call a PDA.

What it really means is that PalmSource and PalmOne need to get their butts in gear about getting some OS 6 devices out.

Probably the best comparison would be to take the PalmOne number (748,950) and compare it to the HP + Dell shipped numbers (877,413), but clearly there are some other Pocket PC devices in that "other" category.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
EdH @ 11/12/2004 3:33:39 PM #
Now if you look at real and valid statistics like "Unreturned units delivered to customers that paid within thirty to sixty days." Then you have something meaningful. With that, you see Palm OS way ahead of WinCE devices since WinCE / PocketPC deivces have a very high return rate.

Please provide links to these "valid statistics" that indicate that rougly 38.1611290634408% of Windows CE devices are returned and 0% of Palm OS devices are, because that is what it would take for CE to fall to 850,820 units, one unit behind PalmOS.

More spin form the Microsoft lapdogs in my opinon.

Maybe you are just dizzy from your own spinning?

RE: Not sure what this really means...
AyDb @ 11/12/2004 6:08:06 PM #
"Yes, the use of the term PDA is rather open as far as what devices this might include. Windows CE runs of plenty of devices that could be called PDAs, but not be what people on this site would traditionally call a PDA."

Uh, like what? Their definition was strict enough that the Treo didn't make the cut, so MS Smartphones certainly didn't, and there are no "PDA" devices running WinCE other than PPCs.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
ganoe @ 11/14/2004 2:18:07 AM #
> Uh, like what? Their definition was strict enough that the Treo
> didn't make the cut, so MS Smartphones certainly didn't, and
> there are no "PDA" devices running WinCE other than PPCs.

Thousands upon thousands of Windows CE devices that are used in factory, warehouse, retail and other commercial settings often for tracking inventory, scanning barcodes, etc. They are counting Symbol's devices that fit this category, so I have little doubt that a large percentage of the "other" 500,000 unaccounted for Windows CE devices in this table are also of that type.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
grg @ 11/14/2004 2:21:44 PM #
I wonder how many more "researches" will Micro$oft need to sponsor in order to extinguish Palm from the map. We 've seen that before. Older users that is. There is a tendency nowdays to be pro-Micro$oft; youngsters have never heard of anything else. We now have Micro$oft zealots which sounds very funny considering it was once heretic.

RE: Not sure what this really means...
jj123 @ 11/15/2004 6:20:16 PM #
In the past, much of these negative comments were from unwlcome PocketPC lurkers spreading ill-will to Palm people. They were insanely jealous that PocketPC were all pieces of junk. PocketPC has improved over the years.

The interesting thing now is that criticism is now coming from Palm afficionados. The majority of the people raising concerns are current palm users. This is different! Now Palm users are starting to envy WinMobile devices (BT, Wifi, + voice recorder, etc...). This is a startling change.

I have been a Palm loyalist/fanatic for 6+ years. I used to change PDAs every 8 months or so. I am now considering a switch to Windows Mobile as I do not want to spend money to buy the T5 (innovation + "wow" factor - missing functions just does not add up for me). I have been unhappily using my Tungsten C for its wifi. I don't want something (SD) sticking out of my PDA nor do I want to carry it in a large case (Enfora) or use an unsupported device (Sony). There are no viable Palm PDAs with wifi.

Also, do you remember when Palm service was actually great?

The problems are not the doings of MS. The problems lies fully in PalmOne and Palm Source.

This is a sad day.


The ship is sinking!

RE: Not sure what this really means...
AyDb @ 11/15/2004 6:24:03 PM #
ďThousands upon thousands of Windows CE devices that are used in factory, warehouse, retail and other commercial settings often for tracking inventory, scanning barcodes, etc. They are counting Symbol's devices that fit this category, so I have little doubt that a large percentage of the "other" 500,000 unaccounted for Windows CE devices in this table are also of that type.Ē

Symbol isnít selling hundreds of thousands of WinCE devices, as you can see on the chart. In any event, they switched their new units from raw CE to PPC. More cost effective to develop for a single platform, for them and their customers.

Most of the unaccounted for PPCs are probably the various rebrands of the HTC XDA line, and other minor PPC Phone Editions from overseas, as well as the local PocketPC market in Europe. Itís not like itís a totally unaccountable number--Medion alone probably accounts for 10% of it, and rebrands of HTC phones another 30-50%.

Trend

Gekko @ 11/12/2004 2:02:28 PM #

The trend is clear, Palm is screwed.

Nice job, Nagel & Co.



RE: Trend
RhinoSteve @ 11/12/2004 2:15:33 PM #
Not really Gekko, the T5 is set up for a near perfect Christmas season selling. PalmOne and PalmSource is a good stock buy. IMNSO, nice prospecting now.
RE: Trend
Gekko @ 11/12/2004 2:31:57 PM #

Never try to catch a falling knife.



RE: Trend
hkklife @ 11/12/2004 2:36:16 PM #
Given its amount of bugs, I'd say that the T5 is akin to a RUSTY knife--one that's sharp in all of the wrong places.

A shame that Christmas '04 is going to end up being such an underwhelming one for P1, as they did pretty well this time last year.



RE: Trend
neuron @ 11/12/2004 2:37:08 PM #
Both Gartner and IDC are sponsed by Microsoft. I don't believe these data. Palm OS still dominate the market, I didn't see anybody around me using PPC.

RE: Trend
RhinoSteve @ 11/12/2004 2:38:42 PM #
Bet anyone good money that PalmOne will have a good selling season. Email me and lets set up the PayPal accounts. Put your money where your mouth is!
RE: Trend
AyDb @ 11/12/2004 2:55:46 PM #
"Both Gartner and IDC are sponsed by Microsoft."

So is PalmSource.

"I don't believe these data. Palm OS still dominate the market, I didn't see anybody around me using PPC."

That's not a statistically valid sampling. Gartner offers hard data to back up their numbers, and it's generally considered to be a sign of fanaticism to faith in the presence of conflicting facts.

RE: Trend
AyDb @ 11/12/2004 3:00:54 PM #
Gah. Shouldn't type so fast. My brain was getting ahead of my fingers. I meant to say "fanaticism to CLING TO faith in the presence of conflicting facts."

RE: Trend
abosco @ 11/12/2004 3:35:42 PM #
RhinoSteve, PalmOne's product lineup is lackluster at absolute best. I've been a Palm OS enthusiast for three years now, but that won't cloud my vision when I'm presented with a boring product. The T5 offers nothing revolutionary, nothing updated, nothing that could possibly present itself as being better than the competition. Who pays $400 for a PDA that doesn't even have a voice recorder these days? This is serious. It means PalmOne is trying to focus on Smartphones more than PDA's now.

I'll put $10 on the fact that PalmOne will not have as good of a Christmas selling season as last year, and even so far as not as good as HP's this year. If their T5 is their best shot, it's FUBAR. Stands for everything I'm against in the PDA realm.

-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T637

RE: Trend
LiveFaith @ 11/12/2004 4:05:36 PM #
Where's Baghdad Bob when we need him?!?!?!?

Pat Horne; www.churchoflivingfaith.com
RE: Trend
a3 @ 11/12/2004 4:11:19 PM #
Bosco:

I have a TH55 and I am seriously considering a T5. I like that Palm. Sure it could be better, or cheaper, or whatever... the point is that you can not overule it just because you do not like it. Likewise, if I like it, that does not mean that it is the ultimate PDA.

Can money produce THE product? Microsoft (Windows media center, PPC and some failures) seems to know the answer...

____________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped Palm with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$450

RE: Trend
JarJar @ 11/12/2004 6:48:44 PM #
Don't just blame Nagel, much of what is happening today is the legacy of folks like Carl Yankowski. Back in the day, they spent most of the company's money and good will pumping the hype engine and didn't really know much about engineering. (He's a marketing guy--what do you expect?) The company was about half vice-presidents of something and had hundreds of redundant employees who didn't really contribute to the device. The most intelligent brain power guys spent their energies devising how to break out of 3Com, splitting Palm into two companies and playing corporate games of this sort. About ten guys truly worked on the device.

Today, both PalmSource and PalmOne are doing *some* things correctly, it is just too little too late.

RE: Trend
ChiA @ 11/12/2004 7:18:45 PM #
It's disgraceful that what Apple could achieve in 1997 - putting a voice recording microphone into its Newton - PalmOne is incapable of doing with it's top of the range handheld in 2004.

It's disgraceful that Acer can put a microphone and Bluetooth in its handheld for £180 whilst PalmOne's T5 top of the range handheld can't offer a microphone at £260.

I am definitely NOT buying the abomination that is the T5, which is let's face it the ugly result of a Tunsten E frankensteined with a 256Mb memory card and the screen from a T3.

I'm going to sit in the UK sulking until 2005, when PalmOne finally finds it in its grace to unleash the Treo 650 in Europe. That with a 256Mb card will give me the much needed voice recording AND kill two birds with one stone for me - mobile and handheld.

RE: Trend
Gekko @ 11/12/2004 7:28:10 PM #
>"Don't just blame Nagel"

YES I BLAME NAGEL! How much market share has PalmOS lost under his watch?

Cobalt = Copland.

The reason the CEO gets paid the big bucks is because he or she has the ultimate responsibility. The buck truly stops with the CEO. There is no one else to blame if things go wrong. There are no excuses that will cover up the mistakes.



RE: Trend
RhinoSteve @ 11/12/2004 10:22:39 PM #
The T5 offers nothing revolutionary, nothing updated, nothing that could possibly present itself as being better than the competition.

There is your big mistake! You think the mass market wants something revolutionary. That is not true. Only net geeks like you want new stuff right now. We are just comming out of recession. The mass market is not as techo-hungry as you.

The USB Flash Drive + PDA combo is going to sell very, very well. As George Carlon said (while he doesn't bitch about Bush) a while ago, "Put to things together that has never been together before, and lot of schmucks will buy it." Viola! We have a great combination here.

And the one thing NONE of you techo-addicts-never-gets-laid-crowd can see is that having a Flash drive in the T5 will do the following:

* Limit HotSync and the need for conduits.
* Have a user carry around a Palm device more since it is not just for running Palm apps anymore -- it is a digital wallet!
* Has a potential to run MULITIPLE OSes on a single device.

Please take your head out of your "I want an ultimate Palm device" butt and see what the real market is please!

... or all of you at Star Trek conventions or watching Anime at home too much?

RE: Trend
AyDb @ 11/13/2004 3:45:22 AM #
RS--Project much?

People don't want new features, you say? Wow! I guess the sales of all those smartphones, digital video recorders, cutting-edge laptops, and bleeding-edge desktops are all figments of our collective imaginations. They should have just put a USB flash memory key into an old VHS recorder--that REALLY would have sold!

PocketPCs are piling on the features: removable batteries, WiFi, dual wireless, dual slots, VGA, CIR, and a dozen other things. They're not hurting in sales. Quite the opposite, as a matter of fact.

The evidence doesn't support your BS assertion. The majority of users want more features, better, and cheaper. It's the same as any other product.

RE: Trend
a3 @ 11/13/2004 5:43:19 AM #
Some questions:

- Why o why don't we all change to PPC if they have all the best stuff (allegedly that is).
- Why o why am I starting to look over to the PPC info more frecuently?
- Why o why everytime I look at the Axims and new iPaqs I find their form factor so repelling?
- Why o why do we think that talking "BIG" will make our points more valid?

____________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped Palm with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$450

RE: Trend
manekineko @ 11/13/2004 2:02:09 PM #
"And the one thing NONE of you techo-addicts-never-gets-laid-crowd can see is that having a Flash drive in the T5 will do the following:
...
* Limit HotSync and the need for conduits.
* Have a user carry around a Palm device more since it is not just for running Palm apps anymore -- it is a digital wallet!
* Has a potential to run MULITIPLE OSes on a single device.
...
... or all of you at Star Trek conventions or watching Anime at home too much?"

I always love it when irony rears it's ugly head. Yes, I think that the average consumer has a big problem with conduits, just as I'm sure he knows what they are. Digital wallets that still need a cable, when thumb drives are smaller than just the cable, when 1 gig goes for just 50 bucks. And multiple OS's I know that's what I've been demanding of my handheld since day one! But I must just be out of touch with the needs of the consumer due to all of my Star Trekking.

RE: Trend
Gekko @ 11/13/2004 2:16:17 PM #

Hey RhinoNerd - Not everyone here is a nerd.

RE: Trend
ChiA @ 11/13/2004 4:43:20 PM #
" There is your big mistake! You think the mass market wants something revolutionary. That is not true. Only net geeks like you want new stuff right now. "

Yea, a microphone which PDAs have had since 1997 is just too revolutionary for PalmOne's top of the range PDA seven years later in 2004.

And RhinoSteve, as far as our being the "techo-addicts-never-gets-laid-crowd", I think my wife speaks for most of us here when she tells you where you can shove yours!

Besides, your resorting to belittling attacks on the posters here merely demonstrates that you've run out of arguments for your case.

Even if we were the "techo-addicts-never-gets-laid-crowd" how is it relevant to the fact that PalmOne have taken steps backward with their top of the line handheld?

You can deny that the T5 is mediocore for the money asked, just as Palm denied the m505 had too dim a screen when it was released. Well, the T5 is out there now for people to make their choice. The Gartner study seems to suggest people are already making their choice.

RE: Trend
abosco @ 11/13/2004 5:31:44 PM #
RS, if PalmOne has been making all the right decisions as you've been implying, they wouldn't be bleeding marketshare. They are. That obviously proves all of your points wrong.

-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + T637
RE: Trend
Gekko @ 11/13/2004 5:37:05 PM #

Bosco - Post more.



RE: Trend
Foo Fighter @ 11/13/2004 6:18:18 PM #
>> "Only net geeks like you want new stuff right now."

Ah..the Adventures of Baron Von Munchausen continues. Rhino, only net geeks like you are buying PDAs at all, in case you haven't noticed. The average consumer doesn't want them, or need them. The hottest selling gadget(s) this holiday season isn't going to be a PDA, it will be consumer gear such as iPods, PVRs, game consoles, HDTVs, digital cameras, etc. Handhelds have become marginalized, and only a blind Palm zealot like yourself could possibly believe that PalmOne is winning this fight against Microsoft, as its market share continues to decline while Pocket PC grows.

But then again you're also the same person who said Pocket PC put countless startup companies out of business (without providing names or any valid proof), and that the Tungsten C is the hottest selling wireless PDA on the market; both laughable claims.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

Please be nice to BubbaSteve
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 11/13/2004 7:09:25 PM #
He's still dazed after receiving a SEVERE biotchslapping here:

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7267#99831



Obviously, BubbaSteve would benefit from our support in his time of need. Send your best wishes to him and his sweet moonshine-drinkin', brawlin', toothless, poker playin' 14 year old wife.

Remember, BubbaSteve: We're here for you, little buddy.



Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
Oh Lord, kumbaya





******************************************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

RE: Trend
RoadKnight @ 11/15/2004 3:38:02 PM #
To me, the one thing this proves more than anything else is that some of you guys here run the smallest ladies bridge circle in town...


RE: Trend
RhinoSteve @ 11/16/2004 7:32:17 PM #
This is one of more fun threads. "Bitchslapping"??? you would never get a hand on me nor walk away if we met face to face.

Anyhow ... this group is about six sigma from the typical PDA consumer base. Those with valid a marketing background knows this.

I stick by my words. You guys are skewed from your own personal views and don't know this market beyond internet posts and geek gathering trying to one up each other in expensive toy collections. A few of you may be get laid, but most of you don't. I still predict that the T5 will do well this Christmas. The "PDA and Flas drive" combo in its marketing is a very smart move.

I also predict we will see a Palm OS 6 device this spring as soon as the major third party apps are complete. That is what is keeping it back and not hardware engineering.

Copeland died mostly due to lackluster apps from the developer community and Microsoft not porting its Office Suite to it. The analogy is not the best here. And then there was MASH ... sigh!

Once the first Palm OS 6 devices are consumed and digested from you nerds, then we will get a good group of third party apps over the summer of 2005; as you all code and don't get a tan. By Christmas 2005, the next generation of Palm OS 6 devices will be out. We will see dual Bluetooth and WiFi embedded and you clowns will find something else to bitch about.

I predict you all will bitch about a lack of Bluetooth 2.0 support or there is no USB Master option on Multi-Connector. LOL!!!

RE: Trend
svrontis @ 11/17/2004 5:59:32 AM #
Amen to that, brother. Even some geeks (ie, those of the less rabid variety) are starting to appreciate the value of the T5. Take a look at some of the comments on this thread over at 1src.com -

http://www.1src.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=73776#post73776

(Forgive the long URL - never have been able to get the hang of the TinyURL service!)

RE: Trend
RhinoSteve @ 11/17/2004 1:15:28 PM #
Road and Sv, you have it right. I guess they do this after they get bored listening to Marlyn Manson.
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