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Palm's Smartphone Market Share: Not Budging

Is it good news or bad news? That's the question confronting Palm and its investors today, as we're greeted with a fresh report from ChangeWave Research that shows the company's share of the smartphone market hasn't budged one iota since ChangeWave's last survey in June. The latest edition (PDF link) of ChangeWave's 90-day outlook for consumer smartphones shows Palm's share of the market holding steady at 7%.

How to interpret this? As usual, there's both glass-half-full & glass-half empty options. The former is the view that appears to have been taken by ChangeWave, with the company noting that this is the first time in years that Palm's market share hasn't declined since the previous survey, the Pre has potential to "attract customers from other manufacturers" and the Pre's customer satisfaction rankings are far above those of previous Palm phones (45% vs 28%).

changewave palm market share survey data

Pessimistic types will note, however than even though the smartphone market grew as a whole, Palm was unable to rip off a bigger piece for itself, even with a fair bit of media attention.

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So, overal good

loftwyr @ 10/27/2009 3:14:13 PM # Q
Martket size is up and share held even though they're on one of the lesser carriers in the US.

Sounds like celebration at Palm HQ to me.
PalmPilot Pro -> Palm 3 -> Palm 5 -> Palm 505 -> Palm T3 -> Treo 700p -> Pre

RE: So, overal good
jca666us @ 10/27/2009 3:59:46 PM # M Q
Celebrating at Palm HQ? The stock has been downgraded and has dropped 5% today.

A stagnant 7% marketshare isn't cause for celebration - it's a wakeup call!

RE: So, overal good
LiveFaith @ 10/27/2009 9:32:53 PM # Q
If the stock has been "downgraded" that is usually a sign the thing has tanked already and is at rock bottom while the cohorts of the "analysts" bag the "downgraded" shares in preparation for the upswing that will come when the same analysts "upgrade" the same stock.
Consider your sources relationships and follow the money. And to think they put Madoff in prison: :-Pat Horne
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a Pre in the wild?

Gekko @ 10/27/2009 3:30:44 PM # Q

i live and travel in a major metro area and have yet to see a Pre in the wild. has anyone?

i think they needed a double or a triple or a home run. i think they hit a single.

the patient is still in critical condition - and hanging on - barely. the only thing keeping it alive is Elevation throwing good money after bad - but for how long?

RE: a Pre in the wild?
whiteasianrose @ 10/27/2009 3:50:10 PM # Q
i see Pres in the wild on a regular basis

not in the same quantity as other touch screen smartphones of course but i do see them regularly

im in nyc

RE: a Pre in the wild?
nastebu @ 10/27/2009 4:07:12 PM # Q
I've never seen one in New York.

I think this is bad. This is the period that reflects the launch of the Pre, so I would have thought there'd be a spike followed by a slow decline next quarter. What is going to prevent Palm's market share from going back into decline? The Pixi is a minor launch, and the Pre 2 launch is still a year away. It's not a disaster, but it's not good.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/27/2009 4:26:54 PM # Q

"You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it–If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy."

- Roger McNamee - March 2009

RE: a Pre in the wild?
jca666us @ 10/27/2009 4:53:47 PM # M Q
mcnamee's quote was pure genius!!

RE: a Pre in the wild?
ssid12 @ 10/27/2009 5:33:54 PM # Q
I'm in San Francisco, home of the iphone, but I am starting to see Palm Pre's more often, at least 2-3 a week.

AT&T has a bad rep here for dropped calls and deadzones all around town, I have an iphone (contract!) ....and it is a frustrating and more expensive experience than what a friend of mine has with his Pre.

I like the iphone, but the carrier has a big part to play. Of course, it may be the complete opposite in other major cities, but this is my experience. Also the bottom line is also important. You can go on about the iphone 3G being cheaper on a 2 year contract, than the Pre, but the Sprint plan over the lifetime of the contract is a helluva better deal....

I can live without another fart app before Jac*ss gets going.


RE: a Pre in the wild?
CFreymarc @ 10/27/2009 6:29:16 PM # Q
Here in Silicon Valley, near what some are calling the "smartphone triangle" you sell all of them. iPhones are the most common with me seeing at least a half dozen a day. About one Pre a week is seen. If I see someone that looks like they don't shower and live in their parents basement or attic, I'm usually right to see them with an Andriod phone.
RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/27/2009 6:49:31 PM # Q

for every 100 smartphones i see out and about in a month -

42 blackberry
42 iphone
7 palmos/treo/centro
7 winmob
2 android
0 webos/pre

in strictly business settings, it's almost 100% blackberry.

this is all very fluid and changing rapidly.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/27/2009 7:22:13 PM # Q
RE: a Pre in the wild?
LiveFaith @ 10/27/2009 9:36:38 PM # Q
I can't tell if this is all scientific or not.
Pat Horne
RE: a Pre in the wild?
nastebu @ 10/27/2009 9:54:09 PM # Q
Not even close to scientific.

On a related note I've been seeing more iPhones in Tokyo recently, but they're still disproportionately in the hands of us foreign types (I have one).

RE: a Pre in the wild?
SeldomVisitor @ 10/28/2009 3:23:33 AM # Q
I've have yet to see a Pre "in the wild" (Northern Virginia/west DC Area). As expected due to heaby Gummamint influence, I've seen about 479 gajillion Blackberries and quite a few iPhones. I've seen a few (handful literally) nonPre Palm phones. I've probably seen more big-screen-I-think-Samsungs than nonPre Palm phones.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/28/2009 4:38:27 PM # Q
Gekko wrote:

i live and travel in a major metro area and have yet to see a Pre in the wild. has anyone?

i think they needed a double or a triple or a home run. i think they hit a single.

the patient is still in critical condition - and hanging on - barely. the only thing keeping it alive is Elevation throwing good money after bad - but for how long?

You never get tired of posting this FUD do you?

Well, I'm sitting in a class on the north side of the third largest city in the US with about 15 other people and the person next to me has a Pre. I see Pres on a regular basis. No, I don't see as many Pres as often as I see Blackberries, iPhones, G1's or even Treos and Centros but all of those phones have been out longer than the Pre and Sprint doesn't have the size of a Verizon or AT&T.
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/28/2009 5:01:38 PM # Q

FUD? are you calling me a liar? do you think i'm making this shit up just for fun? i'm telling you that i have NEVER EVER seen a PRE in the wild. EVER. it actually kind of surprises me. i'm in a top 10 city in the northeast.

look at the responses above - few if any of us here have seen them.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Tim Carroll @ 10/28/2009 5:12:28 PM # Q
I've never seen a Pre in the wild either. Of course, there's only one confirmed unit in Oz so the odds are somewhat stacked against me...
RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/28/2009 6:11:04 PM # Q

yeah - but you guys get cool shit like this -

http://tinyurl.com/yl2vx67

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/28/2009 8:17:12 PM # Q
Gekko wrote:

FUD? are you calling me a liar? do you think i'm making this shit up just for fun? i'm telling you that i have NEVER EVER seen a PRE in the wild. EVER. it actually kind of surprises me. i'm in a top 10 city in the northeast.

look at the responses above - few if any of us here have seen them.

Well, if you're not even going to bother to count the defective Pre that you had for three days as in the wild....
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
BaalthazaaR @ 10/29/2009 7:25:53 AM # Q
I've seen one Pre, fiveTreos (two POS, three winmob), one iPhone and a dozen blackberries (most of which were user purchased and not company provided) and hundreds of regular phones.
My point is that you observe is not a valid basis of projecting market share. Based on my observations, you could erroneously state the following
1) Palm sells more than Apple
2) Pre sells as much as the iPhone
3) Blackberries are more for consumers than for businesses
4) Most people do not want smart phones

So I agree with Darth, your posting of pointless drivel qualifies as FUD. And speaking of drivel, stop encouraging the we-com guy. While I prefer removable storage in my devices and will never trust the cloud without a large insurance payout, I think his half-baked presentation annoys the heck out of me as does his moronic list of so called benefits.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
BaalthazaaR @ 10/29/2009 7:30:20 AM # Q
I think I need to stop visiting this site, I feel like I'm turning into Mike Cane.
RE: a Pre in the wild?
abosco @ 10/29/2009 11:20:16 AM # M Q
Philadelphia area - lots of Blackberry and iPhone users, occasional G1 and Windows Mobile, never a Pre. Not one.

By the way, what is with this weird, cryptic description of locations that you guys are using? Are you really afraid of getting hatcheted to death by the microwave pizza eating, glue sniffing ex-con that visits PIC? I'll give you f'n GPS coordinates of my location. What do I care.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
SeldomVisitor @ 10/29/2009 11:35:59 AM # Q
Isn't "northern virginia/west dc" roughly equivalent of "philadelphia area"?

BTW - I have had multiple posters (elsewhere) literally threaten my life (ala "I'm going to track you down and kill you") and two separate posters actually go to the considerable trouble to track me down (cross-correlating information in posts, then searching an a-MAZ-ing number of other sources to correlate those pieces of data) AND post details of my actual identity.

The Internet is full of The Weird. One can sit on one's hands and never interest them or one can post (numerous!) opinions/facts and risk the chance of irritating them. Sometimes to the extreme.

(Somewhat) Anonymity has its uses.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/29/2009 11:49:10 AM # Q
>My point is that you observe is not a valid basis of projecting market share.

BULLSHIT. I AND MANY OTHERS HAVE NOT SEEN ONE PRE IN THE WILD. NOT ONE. NONE. AND THAT COINCIDES WITH THEIR SHITTY MARKET SHARE. SO I'D SAY IT'S PRETTY VALID.

p.s. stopped in a Sprint store and played around with the new Hero today. VERY nice device! i asked the sales guy what he thought of the Pre and how the Pre's sales were. he said "sales fizzled out quick" and they "got a lot of returns" and it was "not selling well". take that for what it's worth.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/29/2009 6:46:18 PM # Q
abosco wrote:
Philadelphia area - lots of Blackberry and iPhone users, occasional G1 and Windows Mobile, never a Pre. Not one.

By the way, what is with this weird, cryptic description of locations that you guys are using? Are you really afraid of getting hatcheted to death by the microwave pizza eating, glue sniffing ex-con that visits PIC? I'll give you f'n GPS coordinates of my location. What do I care.

Sounds like a fun game -- sitting on a bus driving past Hamlin & 26th Street, Chicago, IL -- my Pre feeding web access to my netbook over Bluetooth with My Tether, MC Hawking blasting into my ears from my iPod Classic via a stereo Bluetooth headset which is also connected to my Pre via Bluetooth, my T-Mobile G1 sitting unused, its battery nearly exhausted in my pocket. The hour is 8:44 PM local time and if a psycho reading this finds me, I will have at least entered Nerdvana before my untimely demise....
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
abosco @ 10/29/2009 7:47:57 PM # M Q
You have a G1 and a Pre?
RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 12:20:25 AM # Q
abosco wrote:
You have a G1 and a Pre?

Yes. While others breathlessly report that they are thinking of maybe, possibly thinking of considering taking the plunge into Android, I've been rocking Android hardware for almost a year. I got the G1 last November when my Treo 680 started developing data connectivity problems and I didn't want to go through yet another hard reset/reinstall everything one by one cycle. I even blogged about it and talked about it here. (I guess that shows how influential I am on this website.)

Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/30/2009 3:34:59 AM # Q

maybe it's smarter to get one good phone rather than fight three crippled ones?
RE: a Pre in the wild?
abosco @ 10/30/2009 7:08:09 AM # M Q
Isn't it expensive having three different data plans?
RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 8:17:20 AM # Q
Gekko wrote:

maybe it's smarter to get one good phone rather than fight three crippled ones?

Says the Centro user. First of all I have two phones not three. (The iPod Classis is not a phone, my netbook is not a phone, only my Pre and G1 are phones). Second of all, that's a radical interpretation of the text of my post. I was bragging, not complaining. In fact now that I think about it, I was probably being a bit of a douche.

In any case my point was the one I put in my .sig, convergence sucks. Why should I waste time crying and complaining about my Pre's admittedly inadequate 8GB of memory when there's a perfectly good year-old 160GB iPod Classic on my desk? I use multiple computers at home and at work so using two phones is hardly a stretch.
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
abosco @ 10/30/2009 8:26:45 AM # M Q
I'm just curious. You're paying monthly with the G1 and Pre, plus you've also got a netbook and an iPod Classic? Nevermind the content costs to fill each of them - isn't that expensive to pay for all of that? That's why most of us try to find the one device that works.

Also, I'm curious because you're one of the few people on this board who owns a Pre. And from the looks of it, you buy a lot of tech and don't use it as a primary or standalone. That's not really good news.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 8:35:00 AM # Q
abosco wrote:
Isn't it expensive having three different data plans?

I'm sure that it is but as explained to Gekko, I actually have two phones (each with its own data plan). Since I'm on T-Mobile and Sprint which are considerably cheaper (about $70 each for generous minutes and unlimited data) than AT&T and Verizon, I'm probably paying about the as what a lot of iPhone and Blackberry users pay monthly for the priveledge of using one phone on their networks.

I was actually going to drop my T-Mobile plan when I got my Pre but I've found that having a second phone can come in handy. I can tether with my Pre and my G1 is still available for making calls for example. And while Sprint generally has better coverage than T-Mobile there are occasionally places where I can get a signal on my G1 but not on my Pre.

Ultimately it's all about doing what actually works best for you not what some cell carrier or handset maker tells you is best for you.
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/30/2009 12:27:28 PM # Q

i like cheap, effective, and simple - but with value. i don't want to juggle and fight all of those devices. there is beauty in simplicity. and i bank and invest the difference.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 2:24:29 PM # Q
abosco wrote:
I'm just curious. You're paying monthly with the G1 and Pre, plus you've also got a netbook and an iPod Classic? Nevermind the content costs to fill each of them - isn't that expensive to pay for all of that? That's why most of us try to find the one device that works.

Also, I'm curious because you're one of the few people on this board who owns a Pre. And from the looks of it, you buy a lot of tech and don't use it as a primary or standalone. That's not really good news.

Yeah it's expensive but the iPod Classic and netbook for example are one time expenses. I bought the iPod refurbished and the nebook, like most netbooks, cost less than $400 (the netbook plus 2GB of memory). Put together, my G1 and Pre cost me about $150 a month, this about what many people on Verizon and AT&T pay to use one phone on one network.

Moreover, I like to think that there is a method to my gadget madness. My iPod Classic has great battery life and carries far more music and video than a my Pre, G1, or even the much praised iPhone ever could so it would be crazy for me to retire it just because I have another gadget with some overlapping functionality. Frankly I think that it's more frivolous and wasteful to just stop using a gadget completely because you have the latest and greatest.

My netbook similarly comes in very handy. While many people who don't use netbooks like to malign them as underpowered, my netbook is actually faster than most of the ancient computers at my office and since it's a an Asus EeePC 1005HA with a great keyboard I can actually use it to control three office computers through Synergy (the network keyboard and mouse sharing software, not Palm's syncing solution). This allows me to quickly switch from one computer to another while saving desk space by tucking the other machines' keyboards and mice under the desk. It also allows me to share those machines with other people as they can use a machines' keyboard and mouse while I can use my netbook to control the same machine (it can make for some very amusing gymnastics at times). And since it's so light and has such great battery life, picking it up and taking it with me is a no-brainer. (My boss is constantly leaving his full-sized, supposedly more powerful laptop in his car, on his desk, and complaining that it is too slow.)

And my Pre is absolutely my primary phone. I never tethered before the Pre. I never rooted my G1 because it seemed too dangerous and like too much of a hassle. With my Pre by contrast, the Homebrew hacking is so easy that I've wildly customized it. I have dozens of applications Homebrew and from the App Catalog on it. I have custom Halloween theme. I never found a decent Twitter application for Android, webOS has three. I have a homebrew patch which blocks unwanted calls. No I don't use it as a standalone device. I haven't believed in convergence in almost a decade. Until someone invents microRTGs, do it all devices will never have enough battery life and there will always be areas where a dedicated device will be able to do one task better than the jack of all trades.
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
abosco @ 10/30/2009 2:41:47 PM # M Q
I won't argue that. If it works for you, great. Added plus - you're stimulating the economy.

On the other hand, I see a beauty in the simplicity of one device. I've got a 16GB iPhone 3G that is full of content with little more than a gig left. When the fourth gen iPhone comes out, it'll be 64 GB, probably have better battery life in the same size because of an OLED display, run all of my apps, carry all of my music and video, and still cost $300 on contract. Maybe I'll get a netbook in the future, but my current phone and (hopefully) future phone make things so easy. I've got one skinny machine with me at all times.

RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 7:14:53 PM # Q
abosco wrote:
I won't argue that. If it works for you, great. Added plus - you're stimulating the economy.

Don't sell yourself short. People who pay as much for one phone as I do for two or who buy a $1000-1500 MacBook stimulate the economy in their own way. Certainly someone who spends over four times what I spent on my $400 netbook on a MacBook Air is doing their part....

On the other hand, I see a beauty in the simplicity of one device. I've got a 16GB iPhone 3G that is full of content with little more than a gig left. When the fourth gen iPhone comes out, it'll be 64 GB, probably have better battery life in the same size because of an OLED display, run all of my apps, carry all of my music and video, and still cost $300 on contract. Maybe I'll get a netbook in the future, but my current phone and (hopefully) future phone make things so easy. I've got one skinny machine with me at all times.

What price can you put on sanity? I love being able to leave the pressures of the office behind and kick back with my netbook and its ten inch screen during a long commute. Depending on how many podcasts I'm carrying around, I can have upwards of a 100GB of content on my iPod Classic (including every episode of Battlestar Galactica and 30 Rock ever made) with plenty left over for whatever happens to tickle my fancy.

I installed My Tether once on my Pre and now I can use it to feed internet access to *any* Bluetooth capable computer. Is it really that hard? Maybe others might think so but I don't. I can leave everything at home and carry my just my Pre -- and sometimes I do just that. But if carrying a little 3lb laptop makes me a more efficient and productive worker -- and I think it does -- then why not do it?
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/30/2009 7:19:03 PM # Q

you're carrying too much shit around.
RE: a Pre in the wild?
DarthRepublican @ 10/30/2009 7:54:52 PM # Q
Gekko wrote:

i like cheap, effective, and simple - but with value. i don't want to juggle and fight all of those devices. there is beauty in simplicity. and i bank and invest the difference.

Why you've probably just saved 3/8s of a penny by avoiding wear and tear on your shift key. Nevertheless I happen to think that being able to jabber incessantly on the Internet while others are fighting traffic has a value all its own -- as does being able to control multiple computers from a smaller one that I can take anywhere and being able to look up an online bus schedule in the pouring rain and being able to look up "that Michael Jackson movie" for that nice lady at the office at the end of the day from your phone. I don't juggle. I don't fight. Most of the time my devices stay in my pockets quietly waiting for me to use them and that's the way it should be.

Gadgets should make your life easier but Nerdvana is not on sale for $300 with a two-year contract. It is a state of mind.which must be achieved by learning how to use your gadgets -- be they just one or many -- to make your life easier. It is a destination not a product.
Palm Apologist
Shouting down the PIC Faithful Since 2009
Screw convergence
Palm III->Visor Deluxe->Visor Platinum->Visor Prism->Tungsten E->Palm LifeDrive->Palm TX->Palm Pre
Visor Pro+VisorPhone->Treo 180g->Treo 270->Treo 600->Treo 680->T-Mobile G1->Palm Pre
http://mind-grapes.blogspot.com/

RE: a Pre in the wild?
Gekko @ 10/31/2009 3:14:51 AM # Q

i'm a minimalist and an efficiency expert. i don't believe in wasting effort, energy, or resources. hauling around a bunch of redundant and dubious gadgets is not only clumsy and inefficient - it also makes you look like a douche.

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