Handheld Sales to Increase 13% this Year

The market research company IDC has released a report predicting that 2002 worldwide handheld shipments will increase 13% over 2001. Last year, 14.6 million handhelds were shipped worldwide. If IDC is correct, the total for this year will be 16.5 million. The company goes on to predict that annual handheld shipments will keep increasing, until by 2006 it will reach 31.6 million.

According to IDC, 3.25 million handhelds were shipped worldwide during the first three months of this year. While that's doesn't appear to be on a pace to reach IDC's prediction of 16.5 million, winter is typically the slowest time of the year for handheld shipments.

The company also predicted handheld sales will pick up later in the year as the world economy continues its recovery. A recovery in the U.S. is especially important, where more than half of all handhelds are sold.

IDC's report also indicated that growth in the handheld market will be steady but not coming close to matching the incredible growth rates during the Tech Boom, when, for example, Palm's sales more than doubled every year. IDC sees worldwide handheld shipments increasing below 20% annually.

In early April, Gartner Dataquest, a rival research firm, predicted that handheld shipments this year would be 15.5 million.

Thanks to Larry for the tip. -Ed

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wtf cares what IDC thinks?

I.M. Anonymous @ 5/9/2002 6:20:34 PM #
If you want to buy an PDA ,then you do it, IDC should matter in any shape form. If you are a decision maker then check out IDC (and others) history of re-stating numbers, they are bad to the point of being unrealible.
RE: wtf cares what IDC thinks?
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/9/2002 8:09:17 PM #
I don't think that you understand who the data is aimed at. It isn't meant for consumers.

Corporations that develop new products are who this is aimed at. They want tp know what is going to happen in the future so that they can develop prodeucts to take advantage of the markets that will exist.

To a lesser extent, the numbers are also useful to large corporate entities tasked with planning deployment and support strategies.

RE: wtf cares what IDC thinks?
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 11:25:38 AM #
IDCs figures are not realiable, they are at best outdated and their projections are revised way too often to trust them

A Real Prediction

I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 8:15:36 AM #
I predict that sales with double. I predict that Sony alone with sell 2 million PDAs in the next 12 months.

Sony has big plans for the Clie line. It will be everyone's Game Boy, Laptop, Camera, Phone, portable TV, and primary computer. The cheap mono ones will sell for as little as $50 and will replace your kids calculator and diary. The color ones will merge to do everything you want to do with an electronic gadget in your pocket.

IDC will continue to get looks at future products and continue to make flawed predictions about what will sell.

RE: A Real Prediction
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 11:33:57 AM #
I predict you're dead wrong about your Clie predictions? 2 million? Give me a break.

Depending on when OS 5 comes out, I think it will be somewhat of a disappointment. Also, the prices, I assume, will be in the high-end so will not do too much to increase sales. I do see people jumping ship to PPC with the new low MSRP of the ultra-thin Toshiba e310 (thin as m515 and better battery life) more so than last year. But, Palm will still rule the roost with its entry-level lineup and continue to demonstrate how important mindshare is in business. It IS eroding though. You can only compete with Microsoft for so long...

RE: A Real Prediction
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 11:41:42 AM #
I've heard Microsoft is close to dropping PocketPC. it's lost about $100,000 dollars on it over the past 5 years and doesn't have much to show for it. Its a niche product that makes Microsoft look bad.

Compaq and HP both wanted this to happen because they were losing money on it, especially HP. They couldn't drop it because Microsoft threatened their Windows contracts whenever they tried. Now that they are HPC, the handheld division is hanging by a thread. HP's board thinks handhelds are a giant waste of time and money.

Expect PocketPC to be gone by this time next year.

RE: A Real Prediction
montyburns @ 5/10/2002 11:56:03 AM #
PPC will not be gone by next year...this is microsoft we are talking about here. They will keep at it until they get it 'right".

RE: A Real Predic...er, Idiot!
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 1:10:24 PM #
>>I predict that sales with double. I predict that Sony alone with sell 2 million PDAs in the next 12 months.<<

Our resident Sony troll is baaaaaaaaaack. 2 million? Get over that. Sonys are nice, but please.

>>I do see people jumping ship to PPC with the new low MSRP of the ultra-thin Toshiba e310 (thin as m515 and better battery life) more so than last year. <<

Oh, please. The new Toshiba is basically as thin as an m515, but it's also still BIGGER (h & w). The surface area combined with the thinness actually makes it more awkward to use. They should've borrowed from the Sony N series. As for battery life, better than what? Than the miserable PPC? Well, duh. The Toshiba's battery life still doesn't equal the m515, and I would suggest that the OS5 models will show further improved battery life.


RE: A Real Prediction
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 1:20:18 PM #
This Timothy Rapson guy is a genius. What a prediction. He is better than Gartner and IDC put together.

I love this guy.

He knows it all. He even goes to work and post remotely as I.M. Anonymous to bolster his posts.

-Timothy Rapson- not signed in.

But, who would have predicted 10 years ago that Nintendo would be playing catchup to Sony along with Microsoft? My guess is that Sony can make T615Cs for half of what Toshiba can make e310s for. Factor that in.

RE: A Real Prediction
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/10/2002 2:42:11 PM #
I don't think Sony is ready to turn Palm market into low cost product yet. Althought no doubt they could, considering Palm has a $99 models, and Sony has been known to make sub $25 walkman, sub $40 CDplayer, and near disposable AM/FM radio.

It wouldn't be hard to imagine they create $40 Palm model just to expand their Memory stick market.

If my experience is anything to go by...

I.M. Anonymous @ 5/12/2002 2:40:41 AM #
I work for an engineering company in the UK. 5 years ago I bought a Palm 5000. No one else seemed to fancy a handheld then. 2 years ago I upgraded to a Palm V and sold my old trusty to a coworker, who went on to buy a discounted Palm III. This last year, some 8 others have bought Palm OS handhelds (one ditching his Jornada brick HPC) and only one (but seemingly pleased) soul has bought a Jornada PPC (really nice kit, but you won't see me buy one!). The market is definately picking up. As for me, I just bought an m125 to replace the Palm V which had an unfortunate fall into the filled washbasin! It lives again, but with a 1 hour battery life.

Happy Palming!

PalmOS5?

PIC mobile user @ 5/12/2002 3:25:20 PM #
i think that one reason for growth this year will be the next palmos. if palmos5 is everything it is supposed to be, there'll definetely be a increase. regardless of the boring (i.e. the same as now) interface palmos5 on ARM will be the next gen of pdas
RE: PalmOS5?
I.M. Anonymous @ 5/13/2002 12:13:24 AM #
The OS 5.0 handheld would enter around for holiday sale. Tho' it would be somewhat late to change the sales picture in major way.

As a note, I think most significant features to consumer would be audio, speed, better file system, while disapointment lies on hardware independent screen size, no multi tasking, and weak GUI tune up.

Competition would also be very tough from PPC, since it would start price war around the same time, a boon to consumer. Watch out for under $499 all included PDA coming this December.

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