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palmOne Shares Jump on Treo 600 Demand

palmOne's stock today was upgraded by an analyst from J.P. Morgan based on strong demand for the Treo 600 Smartphone. Also, recent comments from palmOne execs at an analyst conference hint at a future line of Treo devices. The company also provided some reasoning behind the delay with Verizon.

J.P. Morgan raised thier rating up to neutral citing strong demand and increased carrier interest in the Treo 600 they also said, "We also believe the company is steadily ramping production, resolving display-related supply constraints." According to various sources, the display has been the main supply bottleneck and has kept palmOne from keeping up with the strong demand for the Treo 600. The stock rose over 12% today on the news to close at 12.70.

Treo line in the Future
palmOne recently presented at the Morgan Stanley Semiconductor and Systems Conference. At the conference CEO Todd Bradley commented that the company will eventually have a whole line of Treo smartphones, ranging from "good, better and best", but declined to indicate any sort of timeframe for such an announcement. He indicated that such future devices would combines different feature sets and options to suit different markets. In other news, Bradley said over 1000 companies are currently undergoing trails with the Treo 600.

When asked about current demand for the CFO Judy Bruner commented that production and supply improvements for the Treo 600 are getting better each day, but the current demand is still outpacing the rate at which the company can produce the smartphones. She went on to say that in the next quarter that smartphone sales could account for as much as a quarter or third of the companies revenue.

Treo 600 and Verizon
palmOne also acknowledged that the Treo 600 is currently undergoing the standard testing and approval trials within Verizon. They remarked that the company has one of the most arduous handset approval processes, which accounts primarily for the delay in the rollout. Each mobile carrier has a testing phase where they test and fine tune handsets and software that will run on their networks before can qualify the device. Mrs Bruner, even commented that Verizon is more of a "follower rather than a leader" when it comes to deploying new handsets.

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A few months ago...

a3 @ 3/4/2004 4:59:27 PM #
How awkward it is to think that a few months ago some guys here at PIC were ranting about this device. As a matter of fact I could swear that some of them did not give it a chance in the market. Remember all those complaints about the small screen?

____________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped PDA with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$500
RE: A few months ago...
TooMuch @ 3/4/2004 7:53:58 PM #
Yeah, I remember the Foo telling me how foolish I was that this was going to be the new #1 smartphone about 4-5 months ago.

Again, the difference between the T600 and other smartphone platforms is that it is truly a business communicator but looks and feels like a phone. This will make it a long term platform. Thus, it is the new standard.

(I know..."What about the Samsung, Blackberry, etc.?"...Bottom line, either they aren't thumboard email monsters or they aren't good phones.)

RE: A few months ago...
a3 @ 3/4/2004 8:25:37 PM #
This sounds like a winner: "I've been with a 160x160 resolution since my Palm 1000. I'm sick of 160x160. The new 320x320 palms are gorgeous. And I do "THINK" that Handspring (think is the operative word there) could have designed this as a high resolution device (and don't make the dpi argument... that is another red herring). Nobody cares about the DPI... we care about the overall resolution. 160x160 at micro scale is still crappy resolution 160x160. "
Though I must say that this guy also said that he would buy it because it was the best option available...

____________________________________________________
Current fan of a 320x480 tablet shaped PDA with built in BT+Wifi for less than US$500
RE: A few months ago...
Scott R @ 3/5/2004 1:06:48 AM #
"Yeah, I remember the Foo telling me how foolish I was that this was going to be the new #1 smartphone about 4-5 months ago."

Perhaps you're right, but I think you're making a bit of a stretch there. Just because palmOne announced that demand has outpaced supply, it doesn't mean that this is the #1 smartphone. Curiously absent from Ryan's news-blurb was any mention of exactly how many of these phones they've sold. Were hard numbers given at the analyst conference referred to? If palmOne builds ten of these and company X asks for twenty, the demand has outpaced the supply but it doesn't mean that they've got the #1 smartphone (or even a successful smartphone, for that matter).

I'm not saying that they don't. I'm just saying that I'd like to see some actual numbers. I seem to recall Donna Dubinsky telling investors on just about each and every quarterly financial conference call about how they lost money in this quarter but she expected them to be profitable the next (or the one after the next) and yet it never happened. So you'll excuse me for taking with a grain of salt the glowing comments they make about themselves.

Scott

http://Tapland.com
- Tapwave Zodiac News, Reviews, & Discussion -

RE: A few months ago...
T.W.G @ 3/5/2004 7:36:22 AM #
you want a highend smartphone?

go and buy the SonyEricsson P900!

THIS is what the TREO should be :-)


Thomas

T.W.G www.twgmusic.de

Palm Powered Handheld Reviews from T.W.G at: www.pdaforum.de

RE: A few months ago...
Rico @ 3/5/2004 9:55:10 AM #
"you want a highend smartphone?

go and buy the SonyEricsson P900!

THIS is what the TREO should be :-)"

Walter Mossberg didn't entirely agree with you. You can read his review at http://ptech.wsj.com/archive/ptech-20040304.html.



RE: A few months ago...
conflagrare @ 3/6/2004 12:31:53 AM #
"you want a highend smartphone?

go and buy the SonyEricsson P900!

THIS is what the TREO should be :-)"

You are just asking to be bashed, aren't you?

You want Treo 600 sales figures? Dream on.
;-) @ 3/6/2004 2:24:27 PM #
"Yeah, I remember the Foo telling me how foolish I was that this was going to be the new #1 smartphone about 4-5 months ago."

Perhaps you're right, but I think you're making a bit of a stretch there. Just because palmOne announced that demand has outpaced supply, it doesn't mean that this is the #1 smartphone. Curiously absent from Ryan's news-blurb was any mention of exactly how many of these phones they've sold. Were hard numbers given at the analyst conference referred to? If palmOne builds ten of these and company X asks for twenty, the demand has outpaced the supply but it doesn't mean that they've got the #1 smartphone (or even a successful smartphone, for that matter).

I'm not saying that they don't. I'm just saying that I'd like to see some actual numbers. I seem to recall Donna Dubinsky telling investors on just about each and every quarterly financial conference call about how they lost money in this quarter but she expected them to be profitable the next (or the one after the next) and yet it never happened. So you'll excuse me for taking with a grain of salt the glowing comments they make about themselves.

Scott


Your insightful comment will be met with deafening silence here. Early in 2003, Palm knew thew would be unable to ship the Treo 600 for a number of reasons that I won't repeat here. They also know that it's easier for analysts to downgrade the company and for investors to get skittish when poor sales figures are announced every quarter. So Palm's new policy is to lump all sales together so that outsiders can't easily tell how individual models are selling. Smart move, since they're betting the company on the success of the Treo lineup and poor sales figures = bad press = stock price crash = dead Palm.

You want a number? Here's one: Less than 100,000 Treo 600 MADE (and even less SOLD) since the launch (such as it was) in October 2003. Solectron may be contracted to make more Treo 600 this Spring, but Palm's claims regarding the percentage of income they will derive from Treo 600 is more reflective of tanking standalone PDA sales than it is of vigorous Treo 600 sales.

Palm isn't being dishonest with the numbers - they're just manipulating the info as best they can given that their backs are up against the wall.

Looking at what Sony Ericsson has done with their slick T610 and ultra-slick T630 cellphones, the advances seen going from the P800 to the P900, and the engineering that went into the TH-55 and new UX, the P1000 should be the coup de grace for the Treo lineup.

At least Palm has finally wised up and started targeting who they should have been courting all along: BUSINESSES. A PalmOS P900-type smartphone with Word/Excel/email/web browser etc. apps installed could have made Palm a player in businesss. If they had released it last year. Unfortunately, Palm just doesn't have the cash to keep up with the big boys and will soon be an also ran. The Treo 600 showed us what a smartphone could do, but it will be up to other companies to take these ideas to the next level and make smartphones as essential for business as cellphones and laptops are now.


It's just too big.

;-o
;-) @ 3/6/2004 2:55:12 PM #
"... would be unable to ship the Treo 600 in decent quantity..."


It's just too big.

RE: A few months ago...
chewer @ 3/7/2004 2:41:53 AM #
"You want a number? Here's one: Less than 100,000 Treo 600 MADE (and even less SOLD) since the launch (such as it was) in October 2003. Solectron may be contracted to make more Treo 600 this Spring, but Palm's claims regarding the percentage of income they will derive from Treo 600 is more reflective of tanking standalone PDA sales than it is of vigorous Treo 600 sales.

Looking at what Sony Ericsson has done with their slick T610 and ultra-slick T630 cellphones, the advances seen going from the P800 to the P900, and the engineering that went into the TH-55 and new UX, the P1000 should be the coup de grace for the Treo lineup.

It's just too big."

Your comments, as always, show why opinion should never be expressed as fact. It seems unlikely that Palm is staking their future on the Treo 600. It is a second generation product that will be improved upon in future releases. The Treo line may ultimately fail but to argue that the Treo 600 will determine the fate of Palm's smartphone business is naive.

Your infatuation with Sony products is quite obvious and you are correct when saying that they manufacture quality products. My Sony Ericsson phone has never let me down and my kids seem to love their Sony pda's. The UX50 is a cute handheld with solid engineering. However, it is difficult for me to envision anyone I do business with getting excited about the same pda that my daughter's use to play games and to organize both their class schedules and baby sitting jobs.

The fact that Sony makes good phones and pda's is somewhat beside the point. The Sony rules the world point of view has always seemed misguided to me. While it is unlikely that I will ever own one, my guess is that PalmOne and the Treo line will be around for a long time.

"It's just too big."?? Are you talking about your ego?

You want Treo 600 sales figures? Dream on.
;-) @ 3/10/2004 4:25:20 PM #
Your comments, as always, show why opinion should never be expressed as fact. It seems unlikely that Palm is staking their future on the Treo 600. It is a second generation product that will be improved upon in future releases. The Treo line may ultimately fail but to argue that the Treo 600 will determine the fate of Palm's smartphone business is naive.

Your infatuation with Sony products is quite obvious and you are correct when saying that they manufacture quality products. My Sony Ericsson phone has never let me down and my kids seem to love their Sony pda's. The UX50 is a cute handheld with solid engineering. However, it is difficult for me to envision anyone I do business with getting excited about the same pda that my daughter's use to play games and to organize both their class schedules and baby sitting jobs.

The fact that Sony makes good phones and pda's is somewhat beside the point. The Sony rules the world point of view has always seemed misguided to me. While it is unlikely that I will ever own one, my guess is that PalmOne and the Treo line will be around for a long time.

"It's just too big."?? Are you talking about your ego?

Read again, Junior. I said "... since they're betting the company on the success of the Treo lineup...". In fact Palm executives have recently admitted this is true and in the past few months have begun stressing the Treo side of the company while downplaying the standalone PDA section. Take a look at Palm's press releases and comments published in interviews since December. The shift is on.

Infatuation with Sony products? More like infuriation. But they're still the best of the lot. Like Microsoft, Sony has a tendency for releasing several versions before they get it right. Consumers pay for the honor of being Sony's beta testers. And often the company never gets the mix right, dumping good designs/features in later revisions. The bricks the company put out over the past two years are prime examples. Wish the TH-55 had a normal jog dial? Want a good simple Sony Ericsson phone WITHOUT a camera? Want a decent sized stylus with your CLIE? In experimenting with designs, Sony often trades simple, obvious upgrades for features of little use to most people.

Businesses will buy CLIEs when they are the only choice or if Sony begins to undercut Palm some more. The TH-55 is the start of that trend.

Actually the big thing is somewhere else. Down in front.



It's just too big.

RE: A few months ago...
chewer @ 3/11/2004 12:27:05 AM #

"Actually the big thing is somewhere else. Down in front."

Your comments make you sound more like a pre-pubescent child than an informed adult capable of intelligently commenting on the future of Palm, Sony or any other company. I think I hear your mommy calling, it must be nap time.


Oh the humanity! You're such a brave little boy!
;-) @ 3/11/2004 11:06:40 PM #
Perhaps you should consider taking a chill pill. Or at least removing that pole from your arse. Have fun out there in the big, bad world.


It's just too big.

RE: A few months ago...
chewer @ 3/12/2004 2:35:16 AM #
"Perhaps you should consider taking a chill pill. Or at least removing that pole from your arse. Have fun out there in the big, bad world."

What?


RE: A few months ago...
beardsm87 @ 3/12/2004 7:15:34 AM #
lol, now now, children...
Fanning the flames
;-) @ 3/12/2004 4:38:47 PM #
But (s)he/it started it!


It's just too big.

Fanning the flames
chewer @ 3/13/2004 12:24:54 PM #
Despite being a strange person, your posts on PIC are always amusing. Thanks for the laughs!

Treo 600 mid-term report card
;-) @ 4/13/2004 9:57:43 PM #
Now that were six months after the release of the Treo 600, how about an article looking at how this (the first good smartphone) has done.

Report card:

Design = B+ (loses marks for horrible camera, low res screen, no Bluetooth)

Public acceptance = C (100,000 sales won't keep Palm afloat)

Carrier acceptance = A (Most of the big boys in the USA have come on board and Verizon is just a few weeks away. European market penetration is light years beyond what Handspring previously achieved)

Developer acceptance = B+ (Palm did a good job encouraging support of the Treo's features)


It's just too big.

Treo 600 = Palm's lifeboat?
;-o @ 5/3/2004 5:48:20 PM #
Already accounting for 15% of company profits and expected to account for 20 - 25% of profits next quarter.

Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless

vesther @ 3/4/2004 6:08:30 PM #
I can't believe Verizon is actually overly stringent when it comes to smartphones. I don't know why Verizon has to test out each device through rigorous testing before actually considering the device "Verizon-Approved". I can't believe that Verizon would approve more Audiovoxes, LGs, and even PocketPCs than Palm-Powered Handhelds. I really don't like their selection of phones as of now.

Furthermore, my suspicions is that in order for a handset to function properly, each cell phone is subject to a battery of intensive testing and QA verdicts before Verizon approves the headset. IMO Verizon's probably gonna lose customers if they continue with their intensive testing policies, which put them behind others when it comes to new technologies.

I'm probably gonna get out of Verizon after Super Bowl 2005 if the selection of phones become overly unacceptable, primarily if Verizon refuses to offer any Palm-Powered Smartphones by then.

A Palm-Powered Handheld is the bread and butter for many people. Without a Palm-Powered Handheld, your progress is all for naught.

RE: Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless
hkklife @ 3/4/2004 8:11:23 PM #
Yup, same sentiment here. Right now I'm on a Verizon plan & phone provided to me by work but the inconvenience factor is going to get too much to bear after a while. Like I've had a BT-enabled Tungsten for a year and a half now waiting for Verizon to release some kind of BT dongle or phone so that I can justify the purchase of a T|Tx and stop carrying around this silly SupplyNet cable.

Additionally, Verizon's customer support (poor back when they were BellAtlantic but revived around '00) has started to slip.

I know two people who recently gave up because they wanted a decent Palm-powered Smartphone. Verizon currently offers only MS-based smartphones. Say what you will, but Sprint's aggressive hardware rollout has long brought new users into the fold. Remember that old mp3-playing phone that Sprint were the first to offer? I think it was a Sanyo or a Samsung. Clunky, yes, but a novelty that enough people bought to make it worth Sprint's gamble. Right now only Verizon's coverage (still a major positive in my book) is the only thing that makes it worth putting up with the neolithic selection of handsets & high prices.

RE: Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless
pgmr1 @ 3/5/2004 9:18:43 AM #
Verizon is the only provider with decent coverage in my area. I have been waiting for years for a Bluetooth phone, and now for a Treo 600/610. Very frustrating. And their customer service is awful. I wish there were alternatives.

RE: Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless
theharmonyguy @ 3/6/2004 12:58:01 AM #
But you know, what Palm-powered handhelds are out there? Kyocera 7135 (available), Treo 600 (in testing), and some Samsungs . . . other models escape me. But none seem all that big. The only model I've seen since the T600 that is exciting is the new Motorola MPx - and it's Windows Mobile.

I'm mainly wondering what's coming down the pike in the way of PalmOS phones, particularly CDMA since that's a requirement for Verizon. The whole industry doesn't seem very creative at the moment.

RE: Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless
hkklife @ 3/6/2004 10:29:06 AM #
Well, I personally have not seen the Kyocera 7135 in several months (or longer) in any of the Verizon stores I've been in. Additionally, it hasn't been carried on their website in quite some time.

While I know there are no more than a handful of CDMA Palm-based smartphones out there, you'd think Verizon would at least have slashed the price of the Kyocera (it was ridiculously overpriced, considering its capabilities as compared to the newer units) and kept it around a while longer or offered at least one of the OS4-based Samsungs.

Also, were Verizon a little more visionary, they could have been one of the initial carriers to carry the Treo 600, instead of the last major one to offer it. I see "stringest testing procedures" as an excuse for being lazy and slow to respond to provide the handsets that the market wants to buy. At least they have a few more choices in flip phones than they used to...

Here's how to get a nice Bluetooth cellphone on Verizon:
;-) @ 3/6/2004 3:03:49 PM #
hkklife @ 3/4/2004 8:11:23 PM

Like I've had a BT-enabled Tungsten for a year and a half now waiting for Verizon to release some kind of BT dongle or phone so that I can justify the purchase of a T|Tx and stop carrying around this silly SupplyNet cable.


pgmr1 @ 3/5/2004 9:18:43 AM

Verizon is the only provider with decent coverage in my area. I have been waiting for years for a Bluetooth phone, and now for a Treo 600/610. Very frustrating. And their customer service is awful. I wish there were alternatives.

THE STEPS:


1) Get a Sony Ericsson T608 (nice phone, but buggy software) by calling 1 866 727-2886 (or from eBay when they run finally out).

2) Read the instructions here:

http://www.sprintpcsinfo.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=800&sid=8dbb4ab17c631183cff3d5a9a02cc999

3) Enjoy using a phone with great reception + sound quality and pair it to your Bluetooth Palm.


It's just too big.

RE: Palm Handhelds and Verizon Wireless
WireLess_OneDer @ 3/8/2004 10:27:02 PM #
Hmmm.....I don't have any trouble finding the 7135 at the VZW website: http://www.verizonwireless.com/ics/plsql/pf_start.intro?p_section=EQUIPMENT

If you want a BT phone I'd wait for the Moto V710: http://www.phonescoop.com/phones/phone.php?p=475

Verizon doesn't mfg. phones. VZW would love it if Nokia, Ericsson, Moto, etc. would provide phones configured for their CDMA network. Nokia has waited until last year with TI's help, to finally design their own CDMA chipset so they can mfg phones for VZW. Were they too cheap to pay for Qualcomm's chipset???

http://www.nordicwirelesswatch.com/wireless/story.html?story_id=3111

VZW is driven to provide what customers want, but they aren't going to start building the phones. Why doesn't Samsung, Kyocera and the like offer full featured phones to VZW? The truth is they don't have the capacity to build the phones. All the mfg's are operating at or near capacity to bring their current offerings to market. Motorola was late to market with their camera phones and missed the 2003 holiday season.

http://www.chipzilla.com/default.aspx?article=13060

What is so great about a BT phone from ATT Wireless, Sprint or Cingular? A BT phone on a crappy network is useless.

http://www.noatt.com/images/ATTfree.gif


Waiting for the midyear release of the V710.....



arduous testing or spin?

drw @ 3/4/2004 11:08:41 PM #
"the company has one of the most arduous handset approval processes"

And Iraq is full of WMD's.. How come the arduous testing didn't turn up the defective batteries in the 7135 smartphone?

---
David

RE: arduous testing or spin?
;-) @ 3/6/2004 3:14:25 PM #
Play nice, now.


It's just too big.

RE: I want my Linuxed palmOne!
Admin @ 3/6/2004 1:20:03 PM #
I don't know why this story gets propagated every six months or so. Unfamiliar journalists bring this up at almost every event. The far fetched question, gets an ambiguous answer without an outright denial. Then the speculation kicks in and it gets reported as fact. ehh speculate all you want, but it's seriously unlikely. There is more a chance of Microsoft using linux, than palmOne using any other OS in the near future.
RE: I want my Linuxed palmOne!
mikecane @ 3/7/2004 2:09:57 PM #
Everyone make sure Ryan doesn't change that post! Hah! I think it'll come to pass, believe it or not.

And, besides, if someone else ported Linux to run smoothly on the TT3, I think it'd bump up sales!

Pot calling the kettle black

Billav @ 3/7/2004 7:17:39 PM #
"Follower rather than a leader"? Pretty strong words coming from Palm, a company that has to wait for it's licensees to add a feature to their handhelds, so that they can figure out how to do it themselves. Palm has never been the first to introduce a feature on any of it's handhelds.

RE: Pot calling the kettle black
mikecane @ 3/8/2004 2:39:23 AM #
Dynamic portrait/landscape switching

Enhanced Datebook (Calendar)

Slide-out camera

"Stretch" display

It took a while (OK, too damned long!), but they haven't exactly been slouches lately.

Sony has yet to offer portrait/landscape switching.

RE: Pot calling the kettle black
hkklife @ 3/8/2004 3:39:06 PM #
Don't forget jumping on board the SD bandwagon. Offhand, I cannot think of anything that used SD (not MMC, but SD) prior to the m500 series, aside from possibly the very flaky, unpopular "iPalm" Panasonic digicam. Certainly Palm can take lion's share of the credit for single-handedly propelling SD from "just another new format" to the #1 spot in basically 2.5 years' time. Only after Palm started gaining traction with SD did HS kill the Springboard and companies like Kodak & Minolta make the jump from CF to SD.

RE: Pot calling the kettle black - Palm is hitching a ride
;-) @ 3/11/2004 11:19:49 PM #
Dynamic portrait/landscape switching

Enhanced Datebook (Calendar)

Slide-out camera

"Stretch" display

It took a while (OK, too damned long!), but they haven't exactly been slouches lately.

Sony has yet to offer portrait/landscape switching.

Who did the coding allowing portrait/landscape switching. Look it up, Caney. Or ask Mr. Combee. Palm's coding talent is feeble at this point and the company has needed to parasitize developments from Sony etc. to survive.

Who did the "roll out" camera first?

Who "enhanced" Palm's Datebook?



It's just too big.

SD vs. CompactFlash (The winner: CompactFlash)
;-( @ 3/14/2004 3:43:31 PM #
Don't forget jumping on board the SD bandwagon. Offhand, I cannot think of anything that used SD (not MMC, but SD) prior to the m500 series, aside from possibly the very flaky, unpopular "iPalm" Panasonic digicam. Certainly Palm can take lion's share of the credit for single-handedly propelling SD from "just another new format" to the #1 spot in basically 2.5 years' time. Only after Palm started gaining traction with SD did HS kill the Springboard and companies like Kodak & Minolta make the jump from CF to SD.

SD #1? I don't think so. Look at total sales, cumulative sales, peripherals, etc. CF dominates. Look at what format is used in high end digital cameras, where performance matters. CF dominates. SD's only advantage is its size and that's not an issue in a well-designed PDA. The memory chips are so all so small relative to PDA size that the difference between CF and SD is barely significant. It's all about marketing, and memory manufacturers needing to create a new, more lucrative format. If you're SanDisk, would you prefer to sell a 512 MB SD card for $200 0r a 512 MB CF card for $100? Sony plays the same game with their proprietary Memory Stick format. And why were Palm and Sony selling PDAs with puny amounts of RAM when it would have cost them next to nothing to include 64 or 128 MB of RAM? Consumers should have told Palm, Sony, etc. to standardize on CF and stop ripping us off. HandEra designed their PDAs to be functional insted of catering to big businesses wanting to fleece consumers. And look where it got them.

Once SD memory prices are reasonable (i.e. like CF prices are now) it will be time for SanDisk, Panasonic, Lexar and their cronies to release a new "improved" format. No thanks. I'll just stick with my high end gear and CompactFlash cards.


It's massive. Massive.

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