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McNamee Expects iPhone Users to Switch to Pre

Roger McNamee continues his string of comments to Bloomberg regarding the fate of Palm and the new Pre smartphones in a new Bloomberg article, entitled "Pre to Win iPhone Users After Contracts, McNamee Says". Written by Rochelle Gardner and Hugo Miller, the piece gives McNamee a platform to go on record stating quite matter-of-factly that the first round of first-generation iPhone adopters will jump ship to Sprint and the Pre when these contracts begin expiring on or after the 2-year anniversary of the initial iPhone launch on June 29th.

As usual, no concrete release date info is offered other than the standard and cryptic "first half of the year" that has been uttered since CES in January. The Bloomberg article goes on to quote Maynard Um, an analyst covering Palm at UBS, who states that "The timing and success of the Palm launch is now the critical factor". While the article makes a great deal about Palm's six straight quarters of losses and their dismal preliminary numbers for the third-quarter due an mostly-antiquated smartphone lineup, little is made of Sprint's woes, as the carrier recently announces a record loss and is still experiencing a high customer churn rate.

The juiciest morsel from McNamee in the Bloomberg article undoubtedly his "coolest product" comment:

Think about it—if you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy".

Choice Quotes

No comment is made about the legions of 2007 iPhone customers who re-upped their contracts last year to score a "cheap" iPhone 3G, nor of the all-but-certain summer iPhone refresh that Apple is undoubtedly preparing. The above comment appears destined to earn a place in history along other infamous Palm-related quotes such as Carl Yankowski's IPO day comments in 2000: "We are well positioned whichever way the market goes" and Ed Colligan's 2006 "PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in" iPhone dismissal. Another choice McNamee quote regarding the current shambles of the global economy is in: "…is an enormous risk for everybody in this marketplace—but I don't care."

The article concludes with several insightful observations regarding the dated nature of RIM's BlackBerry OS' underpinnings as well as the iPhone's semi-dated OS X-derived Mac OS kernel versus the fresh, legacy-free code that underpins Palm's new WebOS. McNamee's quotations conclude with a reiteration of Palm and Elevation Partners' "10-year plan" unveiled at CES for WebOS to power Palm devices for the next decade.

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McNamee also says the Pre...

SeldomVisitor @ 3/6/2009 12:29:34 PM # Q
...will minimally be 300% faster than the iPhone on the web.

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
vetdoctor @ 3/6/2009 4:27:13 PM # M Q
That's hard to believe. I did borrow an iP- 3G and found it adequate. Seems the network would be the upeer speed limit not the phone. if someone corrects me there so be it
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/6/2009 4:28:58 PM # Q
Perhaps I should have added a smilie...I'm looking forward to seeing the Pre "in action" against the iPhone...

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
hkklife @ 3/6/2009 4:35:55 PM # Q
A smilie? Wouldn't a gigle have sufficed? SV, just out of curiosity have you ever considered purchasing an iPhone for yourself or the spouse/kidlet etc? Just curious.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/7/2009 3:49:59 AM # Q
iPhone? Yes, I considered it among a cast of thousands of other devices, including Treos, BTW (I think the Treo Pro is the best device Palm has ever made - that opinion probably also includes the Pre, BTW).

However, once stung, twice shy - a long time ago in a different lifetime I bought my spouse and I some outrageously expensive (~$400 each, I think) Palm PDAs and found that it was a TOTALLY useless device for my lifestyle. Within a remarkably short period of time mine was in a plastic bag on a bookshelf, never to be used again - I almost typed "never to be seriously used again" but the fact of the matter is I never used it seriously, period, which is why it ended up "on the shelf"...sorta like "out in the cornfield" for you Twilightzone fans.

So, buy an iPhone or other somewhat equivalent smartphone? Nah - I'll wait til ALL phones are smartphones (soon! Relatively speaking). I have no need for what they offer. ALL phones can do address book stuff right now, including the phones we have right now on our $70-for-two-lines service. Don't need anything else on a phone at this time for my lifestyle. At home, on assignment, I'm SURROUNDED by high-power desktops. In a car, I don't use anything other than phone. On the road - which rarely happens, I use laptops or "business center" computers.

[as I've touted in the past, I never really bought into the idea of a "converged device" and mocked Colligan/Hawkins often about it when they mentioned that was the way to go AND especially when they suddenly changed their tune and said diverged "converged" devices was the way to go:

http://discussion.treocentral.com/palm-general-chat/33796-thoughts-new-communicator.html?highlight=communicator

I remain faithful to that belief]


RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
freakout @ 3/7/2009 4:00:52 AM # Q
I see Treocentral banned you SV. Suddenly, I like them even more!
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/7/2009 4:01:13 AM # Q
BTW - McNamee really DID say the Pre would be minimally 300% faster than the iPhone when you "do the web". At first he said "millions of time faster" but cautiously changed that to "a few times faster".


RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/7/2009 4:03:00 AM # Q
I think you should stop drinking before posting - and post relevant posts rather than poster-bashing posts, freakout - it makes you look stupid.

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
freakout @ 3/7/2009 4:19:11 AM # Q
ROFL. Did I hit a nerve?

I'm not afraid to look stupid SV. Especially on the Internet, where stupid is the status quo. In this case, though, I think I have little to fear.

(BTW, you accused me of "telling lies" in another thread - not to mention "making stuff up" in the Pandora interview comments - but both times when I asked for an example you stayed conspicuously silent. Baseless slander... hang on, that wouldn't be poster-bashing, now would it?)

Hey, can you explain to me how that copy-and-paste security exploit on the iPhone works again? :)

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
jca666us @ 3/7/2009 5:38:37 PM # Q
>I think you should stop drinking before posting - and post relevant posts
>rather than poster-bashing posts, freakout - it makes you look stupid.

Honestly, it doesn't take much...

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
freakout @ 3/7/2009 7:10:22 PM # Q
^^ Oh, that stings. Especially coming from the troll who was willing to bet money that Apple were going to sue Palm "within weeks".

Over a month ago.

whoops!

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
jca666us @ 3/8/2009 10:38:55 AM # Q
No troll dude - however, I still say Apple will sue Palm if they've violated any patents.

More importantly, who wants to bet Palm will be gone within two years?


RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
jca666us @ 3/8/2009 2:07:32 PM # Q
BTW freak,

Who was the person who chided Apple when they released the iphone without a proper SDK - and pushed webapps?

It's the same person fawning over the Pre's reliance on webapps - you.


RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/8/2009 2:13:38 PM # Q
Actually, that's pretty universal among Palm Fanboys - they're overlooking entirely that, for example, the Pre is as locked down (or more so!) than the original iPhone - no noncertified applications, no binary applications.

Sure, you can load an application from somewhere other than Palm's own (nonexistent) application store, but the application (and I'm very hesitant to label them that, BTW) has to be certified by Palm first.

====

Thus, of course, "Pre" is under the "XXX" up there...

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/8/2009 2:15:22 PM # Q
Wunnerful - forgot the link to the "XXX" comment:

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/7044/#150466

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
freakout @ 3/8/2009 2:47:22 PM # Q
Who was the person who chided Apple when they released the iphone without a proper SDK - and pushed webapps?

Apart from the entire Internet, you mean? Me, I suppose.

Just to be clear - the iPhone web apps you speak of? they're the ones that...

*Only ran inside the browser;
*Were useless without a data connection;
*Did not store any data locally;
*Could not access your onboard PIM information (which is still true today, BTW);
*Couldn't even install their own icon in the launcher;

...right?

Yeah, who in their right mind would criticse that?

It's the same person fawning over the Pre's reliance on webapps - you.

Well, for starters, if you listen to people who've actually developed for webOS, they'll tell you they're not really "web apps". (See our interview with Pandora). Everything is local to the phone. The apps are merely built with web languages.

Second, I'm not "fawning". I just think it's an incredibly smart decision 'cause it'll allow Palm to leverage a massive developer community that has previously been untapped. I acknowledge there's limitations to what can be built - mostly in regards to games. I don't think those limitations will dampen the enthusiasm that developers and consumers have displayed so far. And for good measure, I'm reasonably certain Palm are eventually going to offer a way for devs to get down to the metal and code natively if they really want to.

Thirdly... your mother was a hampster, and your father smelled of elderberries.

SV:
the Pre is as locked down (or more so!) than the original iPhone - no noncertified applications, no binary applications.

The original iPhone had no applications. Full stop. Can't get much more locked down than that...

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/8/2009 4:28:12 PM # Q
Kettle/pot - my bad for calling what the Pre has "applications" (as noted in the aside in my comment).


RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
twrock @ 3/8/2009 4:50:08 PM # Q
SeldomVisitor wrote:
Thus, of course, "Pre" is under the "XXX" up there...

Yes, that was quite obvious already. The "Pre" is under any negative comment you make about devices, and "Palm" is under any negative comment you make about companies. That's a given. We understand your premise already. And that's why spending any appreciable amount of time considering the point of your comments is a waste of time. I generally know what the point will be even before I've read what you posted.

Just like you already know what the Palm "fanboys" will post, the "anti-fanboys" are just as predictable. And just for the record, I don't think there are very many Palm fanboys posting on this site. PIC's culture is not very conducive to the denial of Palm's failings.

(SV, I suspect you started your posting spree here because you got banned from the true "fanboy" site/s and had to find a new place to call home. Did I get that right?)

"twrock is infamous around these parts" (from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/9/2009 6:15:51 AM # Q
Palm has filed a major retraction of, among other things, the original topic of this particular comment thread.

Awwwww...gee whiz....

- http://tinyurl.com/palmretraction

And...

Giggle.

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
AdamaDBrown @ 3/9/2009 3:44:41 PM # Q
You know, whether you consider the Pre to be a stand out device or not, I think it's evident that Palm really hasn't fixed the underlying problems with their company and their business model. They go on about making the same overconfident (and inaccurate) predictions, the same process of telling the user what they need, and the same inability to properly time a launch. The Pre should have been announced about two weeks before it was in stores. It's been two months.
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
freakout @ 3/9/2009 4:21:07 PM # Q
^^ iPhone being announced in January certainly didn't hurt its launch in June...
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
jca666us @ 3/10/2009 4:42:46 AM # Q
Freak, Apple's June launch was successful because Apple did a phenomenal job marketing it. You never seem capable of giving them credit for the work they did with the iphone.

BTW, McNamee is no Steve Jobs - instead of inspiring, his mis-statements are laughable! McNamee should continue exaggerating the capabilities off the Pre for all the difference it will make!

Freak, when did McNamee say the portable Time Travel Device is being released for the 8 terabyte Pre with the integrated holographic imager and personal force field?

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
twrock @ 3/14/2009 5:26:25 AM # Q
SeldomVisitor wrote:
Perhaps I should have added a smilie...I'm looking forward to seeing the Pre "in action" against the iPhone...

(This was probably a better spot to put the link.)
Your wish is granted:
http://jkontherun.com/2009/03/12/palm-pre-webcast-tidbit-browser-nearly-4x-faster/


"twrock is infamous around these parts" (from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/14/2009 8:30:56 AM # Q
Nah, that's literally uninteresting.

I want to see it up against an iPhone (OS 3.0) being tested by someone NOT affiliated with Palm on both wireless and call-up connections.

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/14/2009 8:31:38 AM # Q
BTW - it took my rocket desktop 6 seconds to render the same page - gosh, the Pre is as fast as a 3.4GHz desktop!

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
mikecane @ 3/14/2009 8:47:05 AM # Q
>>>Freak, when did McNamee say the portable Time Travel Device is being released for the 8 terabyte Pre with the integrated holographic imager and personal force field?

The TARDIS is apparently a rumored feature of iPhone 3.0 (scroll to end).
http://prepoint.wordpress.com/2009/02/18/prebits-for-february-18-2009/

Palm has to wait for the next TI OMAP CPU that has the scalable Flux Capacitor in silicon.

RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
jca666us @ 3/14/2009 10:19:02 AM # Q
I thought the Flux Capacitor was a $59.95 add-on!
RE: McNamee also says the Pre...
twrock @ 3/14/2009 6:09:07 PM # Q
I find it interesting that generally it is encouraged to "speculate" on what's potentially wrong with Pre or Palm, but completely unacceptable to do the same for what is potentially right about the Pre or Palm.

There is so much BS being dumped around here about things people have no idea. But there seems to me to be a pattern: it's worth belief and support if it shows Palm in a negative light, but it should be mocked and derided if it shows Palm in a positive light.

Since everyone is just speculating, what's the difference? Aren't we all just having fun spewing our ignorance around? :-)

"twrock is infamous around these parts" (from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)

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Way premature

CFreymarc @ 3/6/2009 1:12:29 PM # Q
This is not the best forecasting to say the least. Be interesting to see how this article affected Palm's stock price. The Pre is a whole new platform and while I'm sure a lot of market research has been done, hot it hits the streets will be interesting. If anyone knows anyone in Sprint stores, I would love to hear how they are being trained to promote this in their stores.
Reply to this comment

McNamee is dreaming...

jca666us @ 3/6/2009 4:58:22 PM # Q
"If you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy"

The next gen iphone that's going to be released this year - because:

1. I have an investment in iphone apps.
2. Apple is a much stronger company then Palm - if I buy a new phone with a two year contract, I know Apple will be aropund in two years. Will Palm?

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
twrock @ 3/6/2009 8:20:20 PM # Q
^^ #1 is the reason why I am being especially cautious about any decision to get a smartphone. I'd been waiting for the new Palm OS, both to see if it really was something I wanted to upgrade to and I expected that they would at least include an emulator for Garnet apps so the migration could happen slowly. But now that I am seeing what they are really offering, and there is no Garnet option (yet), I'm not at all convinced it's what I want. But if I'm jumping to a new platform, I don't want to end up in the same boat down the road.

We all know that Apple is going to do everything in their power to lock their users into their platform only, and that includes only using it the way they choose for us to use their devices. That's a given. So I'm not very inclined to buy an iPhone either.

So I'm still "window shopping" (but definitely not "Windows" shopping).

"twrock is infamous around these parts"
(from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
hkklife @ 3/6/2009 11:53:46 PM # Q
My recommendation? Buy another cheap TX, a few spare styli, maybe a replacement battery, and register Dmitry Grinberg's PowerSDHC and call it a day...at least until a "Pre 2" is released. ;-)
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: McNamee is dreaming...
SeldomVisitor @ 3/7/2009 3:33:33 AM # Q
> ...only using it the way they choose for us to use their devices. That's a
> given. So I'm not very inclined to buy XXX either...

What phone is up there under "XXX"?

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
twrock @ 3/7/2009 7:04:56 AM # Q
"???"

"twrock is infamous around these parts"
(from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)
RE: McNamee is dreaming...
twrock @ 3/8/2009 4:06:26 AM # Q
From http://tinyurl.com/affpyg :
Jason Mackenzie, vice president of sales and marketing for HTC America, told FierceWireless that the user experience [of the HTC Magic] would be very similar to that of the G1. He also said that HTC's strategy for Android was the same as its strategy for Windows Mobile, even though the emphasis with HTC's WinMo launches Monday focused on how people communicate, and much of Android remains application-centric.

"Application-centric": music to my ears.

I find myself spending an increasing percentage of my "window shopping" time looking at Android. Can you say "open"?

Maybe a second TX would hold me over until Android has reached critical mass and a really nice ecosystem of third-party apps to replace all of my Garnet apps. Or, you think there's any chance those StyleTap guys are going to get it ported to Android?

"twrock is infamous around these parts" (from my profile over at Brighthand due to my negative 62 rep points rating)

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
jca666us @ 3/8/2009 7:30:11 PM # Q
>Just to be clear - the iPhone web apps you speak of? they're the ones that...

>*Only ran inside the browser;

More misinformation freak? Since OS version 2.1 - The ability to save Web apps to the home screen and have them launch in full-screen mode without the Safari wrapper, essentially mimicking the experience of a native app.

The difference with the Pre? The iphone is available today.

>*Were useless without a data connection;

Some apps. require a data connection, others don't. Also, unlike the Pre, the iphone supports native binary applications. Who knows when we'll see the Pre's SDK?

>*Did not store any data locally;

- Just like the Pre's webapps, as a consequence of html 5 - both pre webapps and iphone webapps can store data locally. Difference is the iphone is available today.


>*Could not access your onboard PIM information (which is still true today, BTW);

Correct, there is no supported access to the Calendar Store on the iphone and there is no Task database.

>*Couldn't even install their own icon in the launcher;

I see you haven't used an iphone in two years - things on the iphone have evolved - even if you haven't.

>...right?

Wrong as usual freak.

>Yeah, who in their right mind would criticse that?

Only you, a person too ignorant to do research before posting.

>Well, for starters, if you listen to people who've actually developed for webOS,
>they'll tell you they're not really "web apps". (See our interview with Pandora).
>Everything is local to the phone. The apps are merely built with web
>languages.

It's still a web app dude - no need to split hairs here.

>Second, I'm not "fawning". I just think it's an incredibly smart decision 'cause
>it'll allow Palm to leverage a massive developer community that has previously
>been untapped. I acknowledge there's limitations to what can be built - mostly
>in regards to games. I don't think those limitations will dampen the enthusiasm
>that developers and consumers have displayed so far. And for good measure,
>I'm reasonably certain Palm are eventually going to offer a way for devs to get
>down to the metal and code natively if they really want to.

You're wildly inconsistent here - it's smart when Palm does it, yet horrible when Apple did it. If Palm doesn't close doors this year, we might see a Pre SDK.

However, the Pre needs to be released. In any comparison between the pre and iphone, the iphone has one major advantage - it's available and has developers developing web apps and native apps for it for nearly two years.

Pre is still "Pre"-release

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
freakout @ 3/8/2009 7:59:19 PM # Q
(Firstly, way to reply to the wrong thread, doofus.)

No misinformation. I know that Apple have corrected a lot of the limitations I listed since launch. But you were trying to equate what I said about iPhone when it was launched with what I'm saying about Pre now. You were wrong.

By the way, you throw around the term "web app" like it's a dirty word, like they're some lower-class of apps. Facebook? Gmail? Pandora? Hulu? Flickr? Maybe you haven't noticed, but a lot of the stuff you can make with web languages nowadays is virtually indistinguishable from compiled software. Graphically-intensive games are the biggest stumbling block.

You're wildly inconsistent here - it's smart when Palm does it, yet horrible when Apple did it.

Again: Apple's approach at launch was completely laughable, and to this day they still place draconian restrictions on developers. Palm has come out stating their intentions to support and attract third-party devs from day one. Developers who I've personally interviewed both on and off the record have stated that they're digging the SDK and don't really feel limited by it. Palm are writing a book on development and releasing it as it gets written. They're hosting developer webcasts. They've started a developer blog. They recently hired a community manager for development. Colligan said at that recent investor conference that they intended to allow distribution outside the Palm App Store.

If you can't see the difference between the two companies initial approaches to development, you're blind.

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
abosco @ 3/8/2009 10:43:39 PM # Q
Developers who I've personally interviewed both on and off the record have stated that they're digging the SDK and don't really feel limited by it.

"It's nice, but we want C." That's all I've heard so far.
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G

RE: McNamee is dreaming...
jca666us @ 3/9/2009 12:16:44 AM # Q
>Graphically-intensive games are the biggest stumbling block.

But not the only stumbling block - just the only glaring limitation you're willing to admit.

You're wildly inconsistent here - it's smart when Palm does it, yet horrible when Apple did it.

>Again: Apple's approach at launch was completely laughable.

Well, when you consider there was nothing quite like the iphone before it was released, Apple's attitude at launch was understandable. They had no real competition and could take their time getting the sdk out.

Nowadays there is more competition (iphone, android), so Palm has to have an open development environment - to accelerate development.

>Palm has come out stating their intentions to support and attract
>third-party devs from day one.

That should be their intention - as more *available* apps. will actually make the Pre more acceptable to purchase.

>Developers who I've personally interviewed both on and off the record
>have stated that they're digging the SDK and don't really feel limited by
>it.

So then why have some developers said they want C? Have you ever done any software development freak, or are you still working in a restaurant? If you have, you would see that while webapps are fine for a certain class of applications, they are also a stopgap until a proper SDK can be released.

>Palm are writing a book on development and releasing it as it gets
>written. They're hosting developer webcasts. They've started a developer
>blog. They recently hired a community manager for development.
>Colligan said at that recent investor conference that they intended to
>allow distribution outside the Palm App Store.

Again freak, these are all things they need to do *now* because the market is rife with competition - from Apple, Google with Android, and eventually, Windows Mobile 7.

Also, Palm isn't the most financially stable company. They cannot afford to have one or two bad quarters while/if the Pre gains marketshare.

McNamee *is* dreaming if he thinks iphone users will convert to the Pre in droves.

When Apple released the iphone they had no real competition - so they did take their time to stabilize the iphone OS, release the SDK, produce the app store, etc.

As it stands now, the iphone is the yardstick against which the market will judge the Pre - when it is released. So it's good that Palm is doing all of these things, however, as I have stated before, their execution must be perfect, or they're sunk.

>If you can't see the difference between the two companies initial
>approaches to development, you're blind.

I would say the same about you, as you don't understand how the different market conditions from when the iphone was released and what the pre is being released into, affect both companies decisions.


RE: McNamee is dreaming...
freakout @ 3/9/2009 12:38:21 AM # M Q
Tealpoint & Normsoft said that, as they have legacy code they'd want to port. Neither have gotten their hands on Mojo yet so couldn't really say how it would work for them. Vince Lee from Tealpoint also said he was optimistic Palm would eventually offer an option to develop in C as they did with Foleo.

Pandora, Pivotal and Splashdata, who've all actually had hands-on time with the SDK, are loving it. Pandora built a version of their player very quickly. Pivotal's Chris Sepulveda said as an old-time C developer he personally found webOS development as easier and more productive.

Bottom line is that no one who's used Mojo is willing to complain about it - publicly or otherwise. maybe once it's released publicly we'll see differently. No reason to think that at this stage though.

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