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Palm to Sell 1M webOS Devices This Quarter?

Last week we covered Palm's market share gains as well as a new report suggesting Verizon's order for WebOS devices was possibly as high as 600,000 devices, up from the 400,000 previously reported. Now a new report from Kaufman Brothers analyst Shaw Wu (via Electronista) gives a bit more credence to that number.

By Mr. Wu's estimation, Palm will ship 1 million total WebOS phones this quarter, with Verizon's refreshed "Plus" models potentially comprising up to 550,00 to 600,000 units of that total. Wu goes on to assert that the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus are being chosen at the expense of competing Verizon smartphones running not only BlackBerry and Windows Mobile but the high-profile Android Droid and Droid Eris, though it is unclear exactly how one determines which handsets were considered but ultimately not purchased by consumers.

On a related note, a new StreetInsider piece offers quotes from a Deutsche Bank analyst centering on Palm's "modest demand" with Verizon Wireless since the WebOS launch on that carrier on January 25th. The DB analyst took a phone survey to Verizon Wireless stores in 38 states and claims that store staffers are becoming more familiar with the WebOS products, though whether or not this has translated into additional sales is not clearly stated.

The DB analyst does, however, reaffirm the "Buy" rating for the stock due to the long-term strength of WebOS. The DB report concludes with "We also found that Palm is closing on Blackberry for most preferred which came in at 17%".

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Agendas are important to understand

SeldomVisitor @ 2/14/2010 12:33:01 PM # Q
== "...Wu goes on to assert that the Pre Plus
== and Pixi Plus are being chosen at the
== expense of competing Verizon
== smartphones running not only
== BlackBerry and Windows Mobile but the
== high-profile Android Droid and Droid
== Eris, though it is unclear exactly how one
== determines which handsets were
== considered but ultimately not purchased
== by consumers..."

I laughed out loud when i first read that "analyst's" words on this in the mainstream press.

Kaufmann has an "analysis" to support. Adding the content free words about devices that were NOT picked because of Pre sales is just so much content-free fluff. (as you sort of noted with your final aside)


RE: Agendas are important to understand
LiveFaith @ 2/14/2010 1:54:55 PM # Q
scratches head
Pat Horne
RE: Agendas are important to understand
hkklife @ 2/14/2010 4:24:47 PM # Q
SV;

Perhaps I should have clarified that better within the article. However, I would not call it completely "content-free fluff" on my end, as many (myself included) have speculated that Verizon's late 2009 push of Android was going to come at the expense of WebOS. To find the results saying otherwise is quite a surprise.

In the past few weeks I have seen a noticable decline in VZW's Android marketing efforts, a solid number of primetime TV spots showcasing the Pre Plus, and the (presumably accurate) numbers from Wu's report. Do note that I am not making any claims as to which platform is "better" etc. T-Mobile aside, VZW has definitely made the largest Android commitment of the big three domestic carriers. Any analyst who actually tracks these sorts of things (as well as being familiar with Palm's ups and downs with Verizon over the years) would likely be surprised as well.

I am just saying that Verizon has surprised be on 4 counts:
1. Offering any WebOS devices at all
2. Offering WebOS devices with a superior featureset to those already on Sprint
3. Promoting these WebOS devices in ANY way (much less primetime TV ads)
4. Supposedly either having some decent sell-thru sales success and/or at least having enough confidence in Palm to up their initial order from 400k to 600k units.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

RE: Agendas are important to understand
Gekko @ 2/14/2010 4:35:58 PM # Q

when i see one - YES ONE - Pre or Pixi in the wild, i'll believe it!

these "experts" are worthless!

http://www.psyfitec.com/2009/03/you-cant-trust-experts-with-your.html

RE: Agendas are important to understand
SeldomVisitor @ 2/14/2010 4:55:27 PM # Q
HK - I don't think I commented so much about anything you wrote (just noting you DID ask "How did he come up with that!?").

My words were totally directed at that silly comment by the "analyst" that...duh...when one buys device W then one necessarily does not buy device X, Y, nor Z. By stating it the way the "analyst" did ("chosen at the expense of competing Verizon smartphones"...giggle), that comment was simply meant to place the Pre in a better light, calling into question the entire agenda of the "analyst" that has to protect an existing "Buy" on Palm stock.

RE: Agendas are important to understand
SeldomVisitor @ 2/14/2010 4:59:37 PM # Q
> ...3. Promoting these WebOS devices in ANY way (much less primetime TV ads)...

A comment elsewhere by someone who MAY not know what he's talking about but never-the-less posted it sincerely said that the Droid commercials - apparently Verizon commercials - were paid for by Motorola.

http://forums.precentral.net/2220193-post65.html

This could suggest (of course =I= would say DOES suggest) that Palm is paying for the Pre commercials.


RE: Agendas are important to understand
hkklife @ 2/14/2010 5:20:01 PM # Q
SV;

Commentary duly noted. Indeed, my main thought was "How is he (Wu) empirically supporting the claim that WebOS-based devices are being purchased at the expense of Android-based device? Are they performing in-store surveys? Exit polls? Post-sale followup questioning? SOME kind of info would have been appreciated.

P.S. Verizon is currently the ONLY carrier offering the "Droid" as such (in its European/Canadian GSM form it carries the "Milestone" moniker). The Droid TV spots I've seen are very "masculine" and "in yer face" and not at all like any other VZ spot I've seen. I would conjecture they were produced (and possibly paid for) by Moto to fit the intended marketing strategy for that particular handset.

The The Pre Plus ads for VZW (also the only current carrier for that particular device) aesthetically appear more along the lines of current VZW TV spots and seem like just a generic smartphone ad modified for a particular device. They are definitely not like the touchy-feely avantgarde Palm campaigns of recent memory (Claus, the weird Sprint Pre ads etc). So it would seem more likely that Palm only paid for those ads and/or made some kind of $ concession to VZW for their regular agency to produce those "For Mom" TV spots.


Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

RE: Agendas are important to understand
mikecane @ 2/15/2010 5:52:32 PM # Q
>>>were paid for by Motorola.

Eh. Ever hear of co-op advertising? It's this that contributes to Apple having a stranglehold on pricing from non-Apple Store outlets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounts_and_allowances

RE: Agendas are important to understand
SeldomVisitor @ 2/16/2010 4:02:30 AM # Q
I couldn't care less what it's called (or perhaps better said "I couldn't care less what it is being called now").

The point and content of my reply was that all those Verizon Palm ads might have been paid for by Palm, thus "Verizon's support" isn't what it might appear to be - just as the Droid support isn't from Verizon but Motorola.


RE: Agendas are important to understand
mikecane @ 2/16/2010 4:40:16 PM # Q
Get frikkin real. What is this, a loyalty test? Grow up! It's business.
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ACCESS does Android

mikecane @ 2/15/2010 10:51:17 AM # Q
ACCESS ports NetFront browser and ePub software to Android. Google English of French: http://snurl.com/udj57
RE: ACCESS does Android
Gekko @ 2/15/2010 11:09:40 AM # Q

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
RE: ACCESS does Android
hkklife @ 2/15/2010 12:11:16 PM # Q
BAH, I want the original Garnet PIM suite. But in all honestly, even I prefer the "modded by Palm Inc." Garnet PIMs over the bone stock Garnet PIMs (seen on the Zodiac, Clies, Garmin, Aceeca etc handhelds).
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid
RE: ACCESS does Android
mikecane @ 2/15/2010 1:52:41 PM # Q
Yes, well, it's for handset makers right now, not everyday people. After they get no bites from the makers -- why pay ACCESS when Android has a browser for free? -- they'll start pay-for downloads. The ePub software interests me but I suspect Aldiko would kick its ass.
RE: ACCESS does Android
hkklife @ 2/15/2010 2:07:04 PM # Q
Mike, have you used Aldiko yet on a nice Android device? It's a phenomenal experience. I've probably done as much e-book reading in 3 months on my Droid as I did in 3.5 years on a Treo. The larger, higher-res screen is just soooo much better (especially nighttime mode) and Aldiko's frontend is superb.

Give me a 4" + OLED screen and it'd really be something to behold. I vote for Google Maps and Aldiko as THE killer apps for Android right now.

Last Access product I used (Palm Inc. devices aside) was the Netfront browser on my wife's Samsung cell phone. It was quite crappy IMO, even on WAP-formatted sites. I cannot imagine there being much (if any) interest in that for Android. Palm OS PIM apps, however, are a different story entirely. The best hope for Androiud users would be for Access to partner up with someone like Companionlink for a full "Palm OS PIM + sync suite" for modern device. Heck, Access could (and should) even update Palm Desktop & Palm USB drivers to play nicely with Windows 7 & 64-bit OSes.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

RE: ACCESS does Android
Gekko @ 2/15/2010 3:11:21 PM # Q

i don't think Palm, Google, Microsoft, or Apple is really interested in Garnet (or Garnet-style) PIMs. why? not eye candy and multi-touch friendly.

could Garnet PIM be blatantly copied and updated for 2010? maybe. but doubtful.

thoughts?

RE: ACCESS does Android
hkklife @ 2/15/2010 3:44:31 PM # Q
Of course they're not interested.

Of COURSE it could be blatantly copied & updated. Look at how Graffiti 1 was "tweaked" by TealScript and WebOS by TealOS.

But the BEST solution would be an officially licensed app or PIM app suite developed & supported BY Access offered for sale on Android (and possibly other platforms). They could have two UI modes: "original" and "enhanced" w/ multitouch, eyecandy such as transitions & finger-friendly icons etc. Remember, the original Palm OS PIMs aren't horribly finger-unfriendly AND have already been optimized for 320x480 so they'd just need some tweaking for the WVGA Android screens. Most Android devices have either a d-pad or a trackball, so the 5-way navigator functionality would translate over quite well.

The above + an updated Palm Desktop (with optional cloud component/access) would be an ideal solution going forward that would bring in a tidy little revenue stream for Access AND put some pressure on Palm & Google to do something about their devices' shitty PIM capabilities.


Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

RE: ACCESS does Android
Gekko @ 2/15/2010 3:55:50 PM # Q

wasn't there a PalmOS Garnet App that added iPhone-like eye candy and "fat finger" scrolling for the Garnet PIMs? i seem to remember one but can't recall the name.

RE: ACCESS does Android
Gekko @ 2/15/2010 5:27:10 PM # Q
RE: ACCESS does Android
Gekko @ 2/15/2010 5:38:28 PM # Q

crashed my Centro. forget about it.

RE: ACCESS does Android
mikecane @ 2/15/2010 5:49:10 PM # Q
RE: ACCESS does Android
LiveFaith @ 2/15/2010 6:52:57 PM # Q
Capacitive screens are going to put hopes of Palm OS PIMs out to pasture.

IMO the perfect world is capacitive TS with a capacative stylus (ie HTC) onboard for the limited times where needed. Diddlebug is one of my #1 apps, and NOTHING on capacitive devices can touch it. A stylus w/out a silo is like a sheep w/out a shepherd also.
Pat Horne

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Palm at MWC 2010?

mikecane @ 2/15/2010 5:53:45 PM # Q
Is Palm exhibiting there at all this year?!
RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
LiveFaith @ 2/15/2010 6:54:25 PM # Q
I read "no" somewhere yesterday FWIW.
Pat Horne
RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
hkklife @ 2/15/2010 8:40:35 PM # Q
I think PreCentral had a statement within the past 3 days or so that said that Palm wasn't really present there but Dieter Bohn was there anyway just to see whatever there is to be seen. Presumably whatever overseas carriers are offering the GSM Pre will have some on display but I wouldn't expect anything in the way of announcements from Palm.

This year's show is very Android & WM7-centric.


Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid

RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
SeldomVisitor @ 2/16/2010 4:13:59 AM # Q
Not only is Palm not officially present at MWC, I've read NO WORDS on ALL the blogs sites about (1) Flash and (2) WebOS 1.4!

Both were "due" already.

Nothing.

Just discussions like this by the uninformed talking about them.


RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
abosco @ 2/16/2010 6:19:29 AM # M Q
Apple deemed Flash unimportant. Therefore, Palm deemed Flash unimportant. Remember the first rule of Palm:

"We do 80% of what Apple does, but with a keyboard and removable battery."

RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
Gekko @ 2/16/2010 1:31:33 PM # Q

there must be a bible thumper convention nearby.
RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
mikecane @ 2/16/2010 3:31:55 PM # Q
Nah, Flash will probably get to webOS. Wasn't there once a demo of that?
RE: Palm at MWC 2010?
andy pandy @ 2/16/2010 5:04:37 PM # Q
Adobe themselves are demonstrating Flash on a bunch of devices, including the pre, at WMC--although apparently there were some issues...

www.gearlog.com/2010/02/mwc_adobe_flash_runs_on_palm_p.php


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New rumor - Pixi on T-Mobile

SeldomVisitor @ 2/18/2010 10:24:22 AM # Q
See the Boy Genius Report.

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