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Palm Shares Get a Double Dose of Downgrades

New Palm Inc LogoBarron's Tech Trader Daily is reporting on a number of analyst downgrades and gloomy forecast notes for Palm Inc. today. Analysts from Avian and Morgan Keegan have downgraded Palm stock mainly on account of slowing sales and uncertainty surrounding the long planned turnaround and new operating system.

In addition, C.L. King analyst Lawrence Harris writes that it is "increasingly unlikely" that the Treo Pro will be offered by AT&T in time for the holiday shopping season, and that the same is true for the Treo 800w at Verizon. He also says sales of the Centro are continuing to slow at Sprint.

Avian analyst Matthew Thornton says "smartphone units and sales are likely to come in below expectations for the next several quarters." He also thinks the situation will put more pressure on the new Palm OS products to meet or exceed expectations in fiscal 2010. His price target has been lowered to $5 from $9.

Palm Stock 11 05 08Morgan Keegan's Tavis McCourt thinks there is a slight, but increasing risk that Palm will need more capital to execute its turnaround strategy. He is still optimistic that Palm can dramatically improve its situation with the launch of the new platform, but also points to recent evidence (.pdf link) that Palm may be planning to raise additional capital.

At the time of publication Palm's stock was trading at 3.40, down -0.60 (-15.00%) on the day so far. Volume is nearly double the usual 3 month average with over 5 hours remaining until the market closes. Palm's shares are down about 37 percent in the year to date.

UPDATE:
11/05/08 13:25 PDT - Palm shares closed at 3.27 down 0.73 (-18.25%) on the day.

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Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales

SeldomVisitor @ 11/5/2008 9:04:45 AM # Q
In the last earnings call they were pretty clear, IMHO, that Centro sales had fallen off a cliff due to slower sell-through (that is, Palm sells to carriers who aren't selling to end-customers thus aren't buying). They mentioned a need for enhanced marketing, etc - and that costs bucks.


RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
Gekko @ 11/5/2008 10:56:41 AM # Q
RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
palmit @ 11/5/2008 1:02:36 PM # Q
Think its possible that Palm will do a major refresh to Centro before releasing next gen OS/devices?

Bigger flush screen would be nice!

RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
hkklife @ 11/5/2008 1:06:02 PM # Q
1. Palm ain't gonna spend the $ on tooling for a new Treo FF, especially one that would be considerably larger than the original Centro.

2. Palm ain't gonna spend the $ on revising "Phone Garnet" (as opposed to "PDA Garnet") for 320x480 support. Plus all of the old legacy 320x480 compatible apps from 2003-2006 would likely have to be retooled entirely and Palm cannot count on ANY developer support anymore aside from minor maintenance releases from the biggies (Dataviz, Normsoft, Astraware etc).

Just rewriting the CDMA version's phone app to be GSM-style (larger buttons & new icons on the buttom) would require hard-coded changes, for example.

3. At best we'll see more new accessories, more new colors & the 128mb Centro rolled out to GSM carriers & Verizon. And maybe a few tidbits of bonus/updated software if we're really lucky (updated Google Mobile Maps etc).


While we're at it, the Treo 500 successor, codename "Wanda", was rumored nearly a year ago and pegged for a September '08 release. It's is TILL nowhere to be seen. My personal feeling is that Palm and/or Vodafone have quietly abandoned their "non-US exclusives" after that one likely horribly underwhelming release.

Going back to the downgrade article, I personally feel that if they aren't in stores by the end of December, VZW is going to end up passing on the Treo 800w entirely in favor of the CDMA Treo Pro.

Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
hkklife @ 11/5/2008 1:17:08 PM # Q
I'll briefly restate it here again:

IMO, the best way to refresh the existing Centro would be to keep the same FF but make the following improvements:

1. Seidio-style 1350mAh higher capacity battery standard

2. Keep the same "sticky" keys as the new 128mb Centros have. Ideally, a Centro Pro (sold alongside the original Centro) would be a higher margin device and basically have the same body, screen and keyboard dimensions as the Treo Pro.

3. Keep the 128mb RAM + soft touch paint as the new green & rose Centros

4. 2.0 megapixel camera from the Pro or just an improved 1.3mp camera

5. Also throw in T|T5-style internal flash storage (1-2gb would be fine). Put a Palm Desktop 6.2 executable in that space so it auto-launches just like the new Treo Pro does for Activesync on XP machines.

6. Treo Pro-style "green" cardboard packaging

7. If at all possible, push the edges of the 320x320 screen out a bit and make it tad larger (2.5"?). If this isn't possible do a Treo Pro style flush touchscreen. Either way, the Centro's screen must be improved upon.

8. Replace the 2.5mm jack with a 3.5mm plus ala Treo Pro. Or put a 3.5mm jack on the top panel of the Centro next to the ring/vibrate switch and keep the 2.5mm down below. Either way, the ONLY way around Garnet's horrible BT stack without native A2DP is to go with an industry-standard 3.5mm stereo headphone jack!

9. Replace the Athena connector with a micro-USB port. That should free up some space both internally and externally and make the whole Treo/Centro line unified with all chargers, plugs, and cables.



Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
joad @ 11/5/2008 2:51:30 PM # Q
Aw, forget it. Palm could really give a rat's patootie what their existing and hardcore dedicated customers want, would buy and would enthusiastically share with others. It's obvious we've been their Achilles heel for years, they've only reluctantly increased RAM or fixed glaring bugs if we were able to bring problems to the attention of media that the stockholders actually read.

Palm will continue their fatal policy of only releasing deeply discounted colored Centros in their continuing pointless pursuit of the "trendy" crowd that has been taking the bus toward iPhones for quite some time now. Meanwhile, offering nothing for their core customers to get enthusiastic over, Palm's "guaranteed" sales slowly slink off to Blackberries and (yipes) iPhones.

In anticipation of Palm screwing their final pooch, I bought an iTouch to see if there's any way I could "get by" with an iPhone, despite all its limitations. So far, the fact the keyboard sucks and there's no "cut and paste" leads me to believe *not*. But, unlike Palm, Apple has shown ability to course-correct. If my 755 lasts that long perhaps Apple'll have something workable for PalmOS "power users" by then.


Paying my annual PDA update tax to Palm since 1997.

RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
Gekko @ 11/5/2008 3:43:15 PM # Q
>>>>2. Palm ain't gonna spend the $ on revising "Phone Garnet" (as opposed to "PDA Garnet") for 320x480 support. Plus all of the old legacy 320x480 compatible apps from 2003-2006 would likely have to be retooled entirely and Palm cannot count on ANY developer support anymore aside from minor maintenance releases from the biggies (Dataviz, Normsoft, Astraware etc).<<<<


again, not necessary. remember the T3 480x320? any app that did not support 480x320 simply ran at 320x320 with the soft graffiti area popping up. same goes for the new treo/centro for the legacy apps. so your "palm mirror" app is safe.


>>>>IMO, the best way to refresh the existing Centro would be to keep the same FF but make the following improvements<<<<


these might be nice personal "nice to haves", but the marketplace (and me) will simply yawn at these tweaks and it will not make a dent in market share.



RE: Palm suggested fall-off in Centro sales
LiveFaith @ 11/5/2008 9:02:39 PM # Q
Pilot 1000 alarms and all.

Thanks for listening all these years Palm. :-
Pat Horne

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Game over for Palm

mikecane @ 11/5/2008 5:18:10 PM # Q
I was going to do a blog post about this, then thought, Why bother?

Jews ditch prayer books in favour of Blackberries
http://tinyurl.com/6jlvca

All the power users Palm ignored and laughed at? MANY of them were Jewish who used Palms. When OS 5 came in, it broke many of the Jewish apps (see http://www.pilotyid.com/index.php ).

Those users never hung out on the Net. Their complaints were never visible to Palm. (As ifd Palm cared!)

So they DROPPED Palm.

Buh-bye Palm. Won't miss ya.

RE: Game over for Palm
LiveFaith @ 11/5/2008 9:01:24 PM # Q
It's always darkest just before ... it goes pitch black!

Pat Horne
RE: Game over for Palm
palmit @ 11/6/2008 1:20:04 PM # Q
This is getting real old!



RE: Game over for Palm
Poopie @ 11/6/2008 3:47:16 PM # Q
This is getting real old!

... so's your Garnet!
http://tinyurl.com/5ercsd

Reply to this comment

Palm: Die in 2008, please

mikecane @ 11/6/2008 5:29:08 AM # Q
So I can do a special Dancing On Your Grave post in my blog before it goes off the Internets in 2009!

RE: Palm: Die in 2008, please
PacManFoo @ 11/6/2008 7:49:48 AM # Q
Maybe Andrea Butter and David Pogue can write a sequel "Piloting Palm Into The Ground".

The last known classic PDA user.
I've recently upgraded from a PLAM TX to a Newton MP2000!
http://newtonpda.googlepages.com
RE: Palm: Die in 2008, please
mikecane @ 11/6/2008 10:55:08 AM # Q
I'd laugh, except it's true. And the other bad part: No one would really be interested in reading it.

Reply to this comment

PalmOS MIA

Gekko @ 11/6/2008 4:33:02 PM # Q

Global smart phone shipments rise 28%
- Nokia retains lead, but Apple moves into number two position
Reading (UK) - Thursday, 6 November 2008
For immediate release

* Total worldwide smart phone shipments hit new peak of 39.9 million in Q3 2008
* US market more than doubles, but decline in Japan contributes to 18% year-on-year fall in Asia Pacific
* EMEA growth at 21% helped by 43% rise in Central and Eastern Europe, but Western Europe also strong
* Nokia retains market lead, but share reduced as Apple and RIM make large gains
* Microsoft share of smart phone market increases despite being overtaken by Apple

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2008/r2008112.htm



RE: PalmOS MIA
T_W @ 11/7/2008 5:28:45 AM # Q
Colligan: PC guys can't make a pho......

*WOOOOOOOOOOOOOSHHHHHHHHH* (sound of iPhone bandwagon rushing past at 160mph)

Colligan (ducking): What the holy f*** was that!!!!!!

colligan's 2 year anniversary
Gekko @ 11/7/2008 5:44:08 AM # Q

we're coming up on colligan's 2 year anniversary -

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/9110/

RE: PalmOS MIA
hkklife @ 11/7/2008 7:01:39 AM # Q
Only 2 years? Wow, it seems like an uber-eternity!

Palm should put a little mention of Colligan's anniversary on their corporate blog. It's likely to be the only good news for 'em for the rest of the year!


Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: PalmOS MIA
Gekko @ 11/7/2008 9:04:58 AM # Q

let me clarify - the 2 year anniversary is for colligan's infamous "PC Guys" quote.



RE: PalmOS MIA
mikecane @ 11/7/2008 9:12:50 AM # Q
So far Colligan retains the Dumbass of the Year title for two years running. I think he intends to hold onto it as much as he's held onto Garnet!

http://mikecane.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/dumbass-of-the-year-ed-colligan/

RE: PalmOS MIA
hkklife @ 11/7/2008 9:29:56 AM # Q
Ah ok. I was in a hurry and didn't bother to check links/archives.

Thanks for clarifying that. That little crack + Yankowski's "we are well positioned whichever way the market goes" on IPO day definitely have to go down as the most grimace-inducing Palm-related quotes of all time.

Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: PalmOS MIA
Gekko @ 11/7/2008 1:03:57 PM # Q

please somebody tell me how this guy hangs on.


Reply to this comment

Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?

SeldomVisitor @ 11/13/2008 5:37:29 AM # Q
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=13738&tid=311767&mid=311767&tof=17&frt=2

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
SeldomVisitor @ 11/13/2008 5:38:32 AM # Q
Pardon - here's an unbroken link: http://tinyurl.com/palmlayoff

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
Gekko @ 11/13/2008 6:05:17 AM # Q

stop reading stock message boards. it will make you stupid and poor.


RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
SeldomVisitor @ 11/13/2008 7:50:41 AM # Q
> ...it will make you stupid and poor.

While this might be true, it doesn't address whether or not there actually has been another layoff at Palm.

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
hkklife @ 11/13/2008 8:28:03 AM # Q
To add some small bit of fuel to the fire, the prices at the palm.com online store have been really slashed down past where they historically price stuff when on sale.

Lately, everything (PDAs, smartphones & even the new Treo Pro) has been reduced in price, with especially steep reductions given to accessories/peripherals. Combine that with some of the rapid product introductions/cancellations (Centro extended battery, 800w chargers etc) I've reported on lately and you get the feeling that SOMETHING is in the air.

But what is IT? A last-ditch effort to prop up the pre-holiday numbers? Or clearing out inventory as they prepare to EOL all of the company's products other than the Treo Pro and the Centro? Setting themselves up to be acquired by HTC by cutting the compan down to the core? A last rally cry to try and finish up Nova with a skeleton crew stitting atop a pile of cash? Who knows!

As always, it's worth repeating: "whatta game"! ;-)



Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
Gekko @ 11/13/2008 8:52:08 AM # Q
how much for that little doggie bt headset series 3 in the window??? i'm posting from centro so can't easily check. anybody ever use this headset? i'd consider it at $29 or less plus free shipping.

p.s. turn it into a shell company then break it off and sold into small pieces?

p.p.s. PIC is the worst site to comment to from a mobile device.

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
hkklife @ 11/13/2008 12:05:33 PM # Q
As of this writing, the series 3 BT headset from Palm is $44.99 at store.palm.com

I think there might be an additional 10% or 20% coupon floating around out there but I am not sure if it can be combined with this offer.

Still, it might be worth buying just for guaranteed compatibility and easy pairing with your Centro. And they can share the same charger which is always a nice bonus when trying to travel light.

Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
Gekko @ 11/13/2008 1:23:28 PM # Q

$44.99?????? OUTRAGEOUS!!! don't they now we're in a recession??? my God, it's the "end of times" and Amerika is kaput! according to "writer"/eCONomist/"editor of the free world" MikeCon2008!

no way am i spending that much for that POS! not because i can't afford it but on general principle!!!!

i now offer no more than $19.99 with free shipping and will lower my offer by 25% daily!!!!!!!!!



RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
abosco @ 11/13/2008 4:08:17 PM # Q
Geez, posting from a Centro sure makes you sound like a moron.

-Posted from my iPhone ;)
(Get with the times Gekko. I'll have your little write-up done in a day or two when I have time.)

-Bosco
NX80v + Wifi + BT + S710a

RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
Gekko @ 11/14/2008 8:54:48 AM # Q

a day or two? this better be good!



RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
SeldomVisitor @ 11/20/2008 12:43:20 PM # Q
Yet Another Rumor =today= about layoffs =today= from someone I believe (since he's historically been a PALM Pumper, not Basher!):

- http://tinyurl.com/palmlayoffs2


RE: Anyone wanna comment on the latest (today's) layoff rumor?
mikecane @ 11/20/2008 3:42:32 PM # Q
>>>don't they now we're in a recession??? my God, it's the "end of times" and Amerika is kaput! according to "writer"/eCONomist/"editor of the free world" MikeCon2008!

Poor Gekko. I really don't know where the hell this guy gets his info. Does he only listen to The Fat Boy - Limbaugh?

He certainly doesn't tune into CNBC which, these days, actually makes me break out in laughter as they see the things *I* saw ELEVEN MONTHS AGO.

And hey, Gekko, I've SOLVED this entire crisis. We can SKIP total global Depression now:
http://mikecane2008.wordpress.com/2008/11/20/chronicles-of-depression-20-427-777/

Unfortunately, your kind will dick around for ANOTHER eleven months before you decide this is INEVITABLE.

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