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While Marty has performed yeoman's work at the thankless task of cleaning up TVoR's scatalogical "gifts" to the PIC community and should be thanked for that, I'd like to suggest that his pronouncements about what ACCESS will decide to do with the Cobalt middleware are only slightly more credible than the guesswork that any of the rest of us might indulge in. While I don't doubt that he knows where some of the inevitable skeletons are buried that ACCESS is not aware of, we should keep in mind that the due diligence in the acquisition was performed on PalmSource by ACCESS, not the other way around. Marty's understanding of ACCESS's plans is based on the same public information the rest of us have. Moreover, as any student of technology can tell you, expert insider judgment alone does not the future predict. Were this otherwise, experts like Marty would be able to make much better money in the stock market than pushing bits around on a piece of silicon.

I'm not saying Marty's opinion is pure FUD, but I do think it should be treated with the same healthy skepticism you'd bring to any other reasonably informed opinion you hear expressed on PIC.

The whole debate about the relative weight ACCESS will throw into its PalmSource OS versus it's Web 2.0-like ambitions with NetFront is a fascinating one that hinges on all kinds of unknowns. Just a few of the questions that I can see from the limited vantage point I occupy: will the wireless operators see enough value in native applications to overcome the perceived risks or will they prefer to take refuge in platforms that keep 3rd party applications running inside safer environments like browsers or virtual machines? Which operators will carry the most weight in such decisions: the staid US companies or their more adventurous counterparts in Asia and Europe? Will efforts like the Linux Phone Standards Forum succeed in forming a widely accepted standardized software platform which allows native applications and services to be deployed across all types of Linux telephony terminals? If so, this could tilt ACCESS and its customers in this direction, which (presuming it was made compliant) would breathe new life into Cobalt-on-Linux. And what is the future of wireless? How much mobile data and telephony will be occuring via cellular networks versus Wi-Max or other WLAN technologies, and how will this alter the cast of characters that will make the kinds of decisions we're talking about? How soon will wireless be quasi-ubiquitous, tilting mobile computing back in the direction of the server? And I haven't begun to look at questions about competing platforms, of which there are new ones springing up regularly, some running on Linux, some that are alternative application environments to Sun's Java ME, some where the whole OS runs in a Java environment, some using proprietary runtimes. How will these alter the landscape?

Does anyone think that *any* of the business decision-makers we discuss on PIC--ACCESS, PalmSource, Palm, Microsoft, Nokia, Symbian, RIM--have actually figured out what customers want in the way of mobile technology three years from now? Or even three months? In my view, they're all feeling their way around in the dark. (All except Apple, perhaps!) The consumer is the ultimate black box in this market and the decisions that come out of that box will mean that all bets on technology winners and losers should be off. It's fun to speculate, but I suggest that none of us should take our predictions too seriously. As I've said many times before, it's going to be a wild ride, full of surprises no matter what happens, so sit back and enjoy the spectacle.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

DoMoCo would have been an ideal market for NetFrontLinux, but PalmSource will likely be unable to deliver in time to matter.

It's DoCoMo, Skip, but we'll assume that that was just a typo on your part.

Good assumption, Marty. Congratulations.

PalmSource doesn't have to deliver anything difficult, even for them. The hardwork is up to Access, which has a very impressive record for delivering what it promised.

Oh, so Access is supposed to do all the heavy lifting involved in integrating NetFront, PalmOS/PACE and a Linux kernel? While the PalmSource Kiddies sit around sipping pina coladas and reminiscing about the "good old days" at Be? Yeah. Right.

Er, you do recall that PSRC was bought by Acces, don't you Skippy?

Yes, and Access' codemonkeys in Japan have a lot of work to kkep them busy already.

>>>Why not simply devote 6 - 12 months to cleaning up the PalmOS 5 (Garnet) code and put NetFront and a few other solid apps into the ROM? Development costs would be minimal and a solid OS could be quickly produced.

NetFront runs on Garnet already Skippy. Have you forgotten all of the reasons you've argued for why Garnet isn't worth cleaning up?

Ummm... Marty, we already know that PalmOS 5 is a dead end OS. But even a cleaned-up dead end OS is a LOT better than a vaporware OS like Cobalt. If PalmOS 5 is cleaned up and has the right apps added to the mix it could easily remain viable for another 2 or 3 years, giving PalmSource/Access a little breathing room to create a truly stable next-generation OS integrating Netfront, PalmOS and Linux.

Anyway, as usual, your estimates of how late is too late and how long things would take betrays your lack of familiarity with large scale software development.

As usual, you have nothing useful to say, Marty. Windows Mobile is already starting to kick PalmOS' a$$ and if current market trends continue, within 2 years PalmOS will be a minor player in the OS wars. Momentum and customer perception are difficult to overcome, as Apple is only too well aware. Already we're seeing articles in the mainstream media suggesting that PalmOS is on its way out.

A truly integrated NetFrontLinux would take at least two years to deliver in stable condition. A simplified OS cobbling together NetFront, PalmOS/PACE and Linux could be managed by 2007, but would likely not be very competitive compared to Windows Mobile. If you disagree and feel other dates are more realistic, post them here, otherwise S T F U.

TVoR

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Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
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The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

I'd like to suggest that [Marty's] pronouncements about what ACCESS will decide to do with the Cobalt middleware are only slightly more credible than the guesswork that any of the rest of us might indulge in.

[Interminable drivel SNIPPED]

Nice try, Beersy but your weak attempt to cover for your pal Marty isn't fooling anyone. Marty made a major slip-up when he admitted, "If you're trying to say that no one will ship a smartphone with an OS that is Cobalt on top of Linux, you're right, that died the day Access bought PSRC. New owners often change the direction of projects.
[NetFrontLinux] is merely Netfront+PACE/Linux. Access will ship that."

http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8373#118396

Perhaps you'd like to imply that the esteemed Mr. Fouts (who just left PalmSource in December 2005) is unaware whether or not the previous PalmLinux plan has been dumped in favor of the new, simplified NetFrontLinux he wrote about? That he's only speculating? Please. PalmSource's lawyers are gonna party on Marty's a$$ if they ever find out he admitted in public that PalmSource has (yet again!) changed paths and is (yet again!) going to redesign their OS. Confirming that (yet again!) everything I've said before about the switch from PalmLinux to NetFrontLinux is correct.

TVoR

------------------------
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.
------------------------

The Palm eCONomy = Communism™

The Great Palm Swindle: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=7864#108038

NetFrontLinux - the next major cellphone OS?: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comment_view.asp?ID=8060#111823

"Which operators will carry the most weight in such decisions: the staid US companies or their more adventurous counterparts in Asia and Europe?"

That one's easy: it'll be Asia and Europe. The U.S. telcos have no imagination at all - it's all about holding on to the old business model and trying to crush any potential threats to that (i.e. BT DUN crippling, VoIP crippling etc). That's fine if you're just looking to survive, but it'll be the "more adventurous" Asian and European telcos that lead the charge with mobile device design. Simply 'cause they appear much more willing to try new things, and are more likely to hit upon a great design or idea than the US companies.

Tim Carroll
Your friendly customer service robot
(and big Treo fan)

but I do think it should be treated with the same healthy skepticism you'd bring to any other reasonably informed opinion you hear expressed on PIC.

What he said.

As usual, you have nothing useful to say, Marty. Windows Mobile is already starting to kick PalmOS' a$$ and if current market trends continue, within 2 years PalmOS will be a minor player in the OS wars.

Jeez, Skippy. You say I have "nothing" to say, and then you go on to say what I've been saying. (CF my Interview with Beers.) You really ought to read for content than merely for troll fodder.

That's why it's inevitable that NPL will be more N than P.

You really should look carefully at Access' history Skippy. There's directly relevant information there about their ability to pull off the come-from-behind surprise win -- not that I'd expect you to be able to understand it even if someone explained it to you.

Oh, and don't worry about me and the lawyers. It might surprise you to know this Skippy, but the people who decide whether or not to buy things from Access do not consider random speculation from former line employees on open web forums when they take those decisions.

May You Live in Interesting Times

The desperation in the recent posts from you and Marty is palpable, Beersy.

You should know the smell of desperation better than that, Missy. But perhaps because you sit in it all day you really don't. Here's a hint: it's what keeps you coming back here and making a fool of yourself just to get attention.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog