Palm Updates Q2 FY07 Guidance
Palm, Inc. today updated financial guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007, ending Dec. 1. The news release contains a quote from CEO Ed Colligan that attributes the revenue shortfall to a delay in carrier certification on the Treo 750 in the US, which he says will likely ship sometime in January.
Palm currently expects revenue to be in the range of $390 million to $395 million for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007. This compares with earlier guidance of $430 million to $450 million provided Sept. 21, when Palm reported its first quarter fiscal year 2007 results. The revenue shortfall is due primarily to a delay in completing the certification process for a product that the company had previously expected to ship within the quarter.
Earnings per diluted share are expected to be $0.10 to $0.11 on a GAAP basis and $0.15 to $0.16 on a non-GAAP basis. This compares with earlier guidance of earnings per diluted share of between $0.15 and $0.18 on a GAAP basis and between $0.20 and $0.23 on a non-GAAP basis.
"Smartphone sell-through across our existing products is strong, reflecting solid business fundamentals in the face of significant competitive pressure," said Ed Colligan, Palm president and chief executive officer. "However, our Q2 FY07 revenue will be constrained by a delay in certification of a key product. We now expect to start shipping the Treo 750 for the U.S. market early in Q3 FY07. Our Treo 750v launch in Europe is doing quite well, and we expect international revenue for Q2 FY07 to be strong."
Full results for the company's second quarter of fiscal year 2007 will be announced on Tuesday, Dec. 19, at the close of the market at 1:01 p.m. Pacific Standard Time, and a conference call will follow at 1:30 p.m. Pacific/4:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
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RE: Palm Slashes Estimates
Nice haircut!
PALM
15.37 -0.55 -3.42%
After Hours: 14.75 -0.62 / -4.03% Vol. 1.81 Mil
-7.45%
EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
Palm decided to dance with the devil (carriers) and are now about to find out firsthand just how tough it is to make it in the cellphone industry. Their competition is just starting to get warmed up and will be releasing an onslaught of hardware in 2007 that makes the Treos look like overpriced junk. Palm wasted the 2 year advantage they received from Handspring in 2004 with the Treo 600, and now have nothing of significance capable of countering the competition in 2007.
The one thing that's concerning is the possibility that since Palm appears to have stopped playing shell games with their "sales" figures, this may mean that their deal to get bought out fell through. Without a buyout by ****** in the next couple of months, Palm will implode much the same way Netscape did a few years ago. What a waste that would be. I STILL expect an announcement within a couple of months (most likely right after the end of the current quarter) that Palm has been bought out by ****** and the "synergies" yada yada of the new pairing will immediately result in an energized lineup and aggressive rollout of devices into new markets. If I'm wrong and no White Knight appears SOON, Palm is a Dead Company Walking - no matter how long they might be capable of maintaining a zombie-like existence, churning out ever-shrinking numbers of devices running an increasingly unstable PalmOS 5.
Will Palm announce it is transitioning all devices to Windows Mobile in 2007? Don't be surprised if the only way future Palm devices can run PalmOS applications is with a licensed vesion of StyleTap Platform. If ****** does buy Palm, a Windows Mobile-only Treo future can pretty much be guaranteed.
Anyone here brave (and foolish) enough to bet against TVoR's predictions? Didn't think so.
TVoR
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
Wow with an ability to tell the future you must have made yourself billions in the stock market buying and shorting, making ungodly amounts of money, though but that makes me wonder why you'd be wasting your valuable time continuously posting here. Your powes of prediction must not nearly be as great as you think.
TVoR "Dance with the devil?"
What would you suppose they should've done instead, ignored the high margin smartphone business and focus on the shrinking low margin PDA business ;) that's a great idea. Or how about continuously 'innovating' the way Sony did, tossing out model after model incessantly, hmmm lets think back about how well that worked out for them, oh yeah they got out of the PDA business internationally.
Since you're so good at predicting why use ******, why not put your predictions on the line and NAME the company you say is buying them out? LOL
TVoR "Anyone here brave (and foolish) enough to bet against TVoR's predictions? Didn't think so."
Apparently you didn't predict well here either, I'll completely bet against every prediction you've made in this post.
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
Ten bucks, Voice?
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
The psych ward must have closed up early tonight.
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
I doubt that TVOR will predict a particular company this time. He got a bit burned with a specific prediction in the past:
"Does ANYONE not realize that Palm will buy PalmSource?" The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/4/2005 4:11:35 PM
It's much safer to predict the "highly probable" without going into too many details. And it gives you a lot more space to spin it later if you were a little off. (It's really hard for some people to admit when they are wrong.)
I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
Something tells me Palm has a little more fight in it than folks here give them credit.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
Wow with an ability to tell the future you must have made yourself billions in the stock market buying and shorting, making ungodly amounts of money, though but that makes me wonder why you'd be wasting your valuable time continuously posting here. Your powes of prediction must not nearly be as great as you think.
Paddy, Paddy, Paddy. Is that the BEST response you can come up with?
TVoR "Dance with the devil?"
What would you suppose they should've done instead, ignored the high margin smartphone business and focus on the shrinking low margin PDA business ;) that's a great idea.
How about paring their PDA business to 2 or 3 well-designed models, while developing some Treo models that are something other than embarassingly incremental updates to the original HANDSPRING Treo 600?
Or how about continuously 'innovating' the way Sony did, tossing out model after model incessantly, hmmm lets think back about how well that worked out for them, oh yeah they got out of the PDA business internationally.
No one expects Palm to innovate like Sony did. We DO expect Palm to stop making exceptionally stupid decisions like shortchanging the Lifedrive on RAM, shortchanging the Tungsten T5 on RAM, shortchanging the Treo 650 on RAM, failing to fix bugs in the Treo's email application, failing to get rid of the Treo's external antenna...
Since you're so good at predicting why use ******, why not put your predictions on the line and NAME the company you say is buying them out? LOL
Do the math. Can you count to 10? How about to 6? Good.
TVoR "Anyone here brave (and foolish) enough to bet against TVoR's predictions? Didn't think so."
Apparently you didn't predict well here either, I'll completely bet against every prediction you've made in this post.
Excellent. As usual, you will lose.
TVoR
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
Ten bucks, Voice?
Timmmay, Palm ran out of innovation several years ago. As I said before, losing out on control of their OS has put them in an untenable situation. Without control over the OS, Palm is reduced to becoming Just Another WindowsMobile Licensee (JAWL) and having to compete with other Windows Mobile licensees that are capable of producing much better hardware than Palm.
I believe Palm has attempted to regain control of PalmOS, however, Access spurned their offer. The time to have regained control of PalmOS was a year ago. At this point in time, Palm's only realistic solution is to throw all of its energy behind becoming a Windows Mobile licensee that enhances value by adding a PalmOS emulator, while at the same time improving the Windows Mobile user interface.
As far as the "third business" goes, don't hold your breath. If Palm can't even get the Treo 700p right, do you really think that they can get a whole new class of device and associated software services right? Dream on.
I'll take your bet. Sucker. ;-O
TVoR
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
I doubt that TVOR will predict a particular company this time. He got a bit burned with a specific prediction in the past:
"Does ANYONE not realize that Palm will buy PalmSource?" The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/4/2005 4:11:35 PM
It's much safer to predict the "highly probable" without going into too many details. And it gives you a lot more space to spin it later if you were a little off. (It's really hard for some people to admit when they are wrong.)
I've given you a rather large clue, but it's up to you to figure out the rest. Yes, I predicted that Palm was going to buy PalmSource, and as you know Palm indeed did try to buy PalmSource. In fact, Palm still kept trying to buy PalmOS after they lost out in the bidding. My only mistake was not expecting that Access would have been so foolish enough to have overpaid for PalmSource to the degree that they did. Mea culpa.
If you want me to breast-feed you more details about the potential Palm buyout, you can keep dreaming. I will give you one tip, however: if Palm's stock price drops below $10 in the next two weeks, buy it. After that point, it will be too late.
TVoR
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarter
Beersy, nothing Palm has done in the last two years has shown us that its leadership has the foggiest idea what it's doing.
Yet we've had at least three predictions from TVoR during that period about how Palm had "just hit the iceberg."
W T F are you talking about?
TVoR
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
As demonstrated by the Treo 700w, Palm are quite capable of keeping secrets. (leaked photos surfaced months before the announcement, but no one in their right mind believed them...) It'd be easier for me to accept your prediction here if Palm weren't trying to hire Linux people; that's an obvious signal that they are still exploring other options than becoming JAWL.
As far as the "third business" goes, don't hold your breath. If Palm can't even get the Treo 700p right, do you really think that they can get a whole new class of device and associated software services right? Dream on.
Palm/Handspring started two revolutions already with the Pilot and the Treo. I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt when they say they're working on another one.
I'll take your bet. Sucker. ;-O
(freakout shakes on it) See you January 1st, 2008.
Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: EXACTLY as I predicted, Palm just hit the iceberg this quarte
Excuse me for not believing that you "know all", but I simply don't. It is very easy to say that you are "in the know" when you don't give the details. Regarding the PalmSource acquisition by Access, if I'm not mistaken, you also didn't have all the bidders correct until after those facts came out either. So, "show me the money" this time too, and we'll find out if you are right. Otherwise, "whatever".
If you want me to breast-feed you more details about the potential Palm buyout, you can keep dreaming. I will give you one tip, however: if Palm's stock price drops below $10 in the next two weeks, buy it. After that point, it will be too late.
Congratulations! Seems like you are going to be very rich, very shortly. Right? I mean, if you are so sure, you've got to be playing this stock game. Me? I don't play, so whatever you "predict" makes no difference to me whatsoever. Pardon me, but I won't be "drinking" whatever it is you might be offering. My only true interest in any of this is whether or not I will be able to buy a well-designed, well-built, well-supported, well-priced handheld in the future. The rest of this is just entertainment.
I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RIP for Palm
This company is done.
I plead once again for Pimlico and Iambic to show mercy on us Palm user to port their PIM application over to Symbian...pretty pleeeze with a credit card number for advance order on it????
US Robotics Pilot 5000 -> 3Com Palm III -> Sony Cile N710C -> Sony Clie T615C -> Palm LifeDrive
NOT ONLY NEGATIVE GUIDANCE
I prefer to think that the global guidance are under estimated and Europe will go much better. Here we are very excited from the lunch of T50 and comments of Vodafone dealers are enthusiastic. All waiting for the 680 as well.
Faith in the future. Palm will guide better in 2007 I think
PALMSTYLE
carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
I read PIC regularly, have owned Palm devices for about 6 years or so. Have had a Treo 650 for amost 2 years. I work with technology and support a handful of users who have Treo's.
Here's what I do not understand and which is driving me to look at other options. I can't get what I want even in the Treo line of devices unless I hop from carrier to carrier which no one in their right mind does.
I want the newer faster networking but I can't have it unless I go to Sprint or Verizon and I'm on Cingular. More than six months after the 700p was released it's still unavailable on a major carrier like Cingular. I don't really care who invested in Palm's research or who paid whom what, The competition between carriers and the lack of conscience by the device makers in their contortions to please specific carriers puts the consumer last.
Now the 680 was announced for black Friday but when I went into a Cingular store yesterday (27th) they said it had not come in and they had no idea when it would be delivered. I called Cingular and they were happy to sell me a T680 (figured I'd try it for awhile even though it's still on the slower network) and the cost was $175 which seemed reasonable. But after hanging up I got an email that said it was backordered.
I know I could buy an unlocked phone for twice the price and go to any network but frankly I don't think the hardware is quite worth the cost.
Next I called to order a BlackJack figuring I'll just give it a trial run and see how good/bad it it is. But despite the ads saying $199 they want $279 for it even with an unlimited dataplan and a renewal of contract. I balked and am passing on that since I don't really want the lower screen resolution.
As a consumer I want to go to a major carrier like Cingular and get any phone/data device that can work on that carrier's network. Do the carrier's and manufacturer's really think it helps them with the consumer buyers to do these pointless exclusives or think offerign expensive unlocked phones that will be obsolete in a couple of years is the answer? It is seeing the consumer as more brain-dead and moronic than usual to think everyone is going to cancel their contract and go with Sprint, and then cancel it again and go with Cingular when they have the next hardware breakthrough.
The saving grace may be that I've been saved from buying a 700p as I keep reading what a crappy phone it is.
RE: carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
1) The Palm OS does not support the UMTS networking standard that Cingular's 3G network uses. Palm will need to move to a next generation Palm OS to do this, which many (myself included) expect to happen some time next year.
2) The Treo 750, which was planned for release this quarter has been delayed (the cause of the downward guidance). That will be 3G, but it won't be Palm OS.
Cingular's HSDPA (3G) network still has a ways to go before there's good enough coverage for me to care about it. Nevertheless, I made a decision two years ago to stick with Cingular for two reasons: I like the lower cost and great coverage of the EDGE network and find the speed acceptable for my use of it; and I can change phones any time I please simply by swapping out the SIM card. Because of my business I swap in a different phone every few months (or even just for a few weeks, days, or hours) and I don't want to have to get the carrier to give me permission to activate the phone every time I switch.
I expect Palm and Cingular will probably get their respective 3G acts together pretty close to the same time next year so if you don't want to switch carriers or muddle through with a Windows Mobile Treo a little patience may be what you need. Not that that probably sounds like good news to you, but there it is.
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
> how good/bad it it is. But despite the ads saying $199 they want $279 for it even
> with an unlimited dataplan and a renewal of contract...
http://www.letstalk.com/product/product.htm?prId=32083&search=blackjack
RE: carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
http://www.letstalk.com
Yeah, well, as I said before, caveat emptor: http://www.palminfocenter.com/comments/9115/#127496
David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
Always. Anywhere.
So whenever I have problems with the two free Sony-Ericsson 520As I "bought" from LetsTalk, then have problems with..er...some sort of something with LetsTalk, I'll be SURE to come back somewhere here and report them!
No kidding.
Until then, however, I'm happy with my two free phones and (minimal) Cingular service!
Unbelievable
My contacts at Cingular tell me everyone there wants the 750 in their portfolio - and have lots of pent up demand, so it will happen - just a matter of ironing out the wrinkles in WinMo (cough)...
Buy, buy, buy... I did. :-)
Over to you chicken little...
JLM.
RE: Totally believable. Totally expected. Totally Palm.
So in "just_little_me World" is a 40 - 60 MILLION dollar downward guidance somehow A Good Thing?
Carrier certification is mostly turn the handle type of work
Is it really that simple, just_little_me? Wow. Thanks for sharing your tremendous knowledge here with us today. We're honored by your presence, Milady.
... - but sometimes things take a little longer than expected.
Don't you mean "ALWAYS things take longer than expected"?
Cingular are hard to deal with for sure, but so are others. Unfortunately there seem to be a few issues that have pushed the delivery to Cingular into Palms next quarter - big deal.
How DARE Cingular want Palm to sell them a STABLE phone??? The nerve! And what happens if the new Treo fails to ship by February or March 2007? Do you think other handset providers like Samsung, Nokia, Motorola, etc. might be trying to get the carriers to give up on buggy Treos once and for all? Do you think? Apparently not... So, just_little_me, if carriers start scaling back their purchases of Treos (as I expect them to do now that better-constructed, cheaper alternatives are now available from the competition), where does that leave Palm? Hmmmmmm????
Means next Q will be better.
Yes, just_little_me, the next Motorola Q will be better. Suddenly the smartphone pond is getting a lot more crowded. Meanwhile Palm's likelihood of ever posting a significant profit again is becoming increasingly remote.
My contacts at Cingular tell me everyone there wants the 750 in their portfolio - and have lots of pent up demand, so it will happen - just a matter of ironing out the wrinkles in WinMo (cough)...
Why are you referring to a random Cingular customer service rep as "My contacts"? Odd.
TVoR
RE: Unbelievable
========
As far as I have been able to find (til the time of this post), PALM said (paraphrase):
== "THIS quarter is the pits due to a carrier not certifying our 750"
and
== "Next quarter we're gonna be selling the 750 in the USA"
As far as I have been able to find, PALM did NOT say:
== "THIS quarter is the pits due to a carrier not certifying our 750"
and
== "Next quarter that carrier will be selling the 750 and all the
== money we missed this quarter will be deferred to that quarter"
========
If anyone has PALM-based proof otherwise, for SURE mention it.
RE: The trouble with Palm and its Treo
http://blogs.business2.com/utilitybelt/2006/11/analysis_palm_p.html
I can't figure out any advantage for Access just to give the OS to Palm. At a minimum, right now they are at least collecting their license fees. I'd also think that they would prefer to move Palm on to their ALP OS as the "upgrade" path. Giving away the old Palm OS would just make it easier for Palm to stay away from Access' future OS. But it would be great if somehow Palm could get the OS back.
I'm still hoping that Palm is developing a real OS in house that will suddenly appear on their hardware. I know that they have said that they would like to settle on one OS, and if that really is the goal, it may be that WinMob is simply going to become the only OS Palm uses. But maybe that was only putting on appearances. They haven't signed any exclusionary agreements with MS as far as I know.
On a side note, I finally got my old Zodiac 2 to function almost as the equivalent of my TX (no WiFi of course, but Chinese OS and handwriting recognition are working). So I feel pretty comfortable that I have multiple options for waiting around a while to watch how this all shakes out.
I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
RE: The trouble with Palm and its Treo
You can see their incredulity in their swallowed responses to the question.
Unbelievably naive on that "interviewer's" part.
RE: The trouble with Palm and its Treo
When I first read about the PalmSource acquisition by Access, it seemed to me that Access was bidding more on their perceived value for CMS than for the Palm OS. Maybe if they could figure out how to get some mileage out of the Palm OS, all the better (if they could be perceived as the "evolution" of Palm OS), but CMS was the big ticket item. (And some people made a bundle off of that deal!)
I had hoped that the seeming astronomical pricetag meant that Access had some kind of "behind the scenes" agreement with Palm that would allow Palm to later buy the rights to the Palm OS, basically letting both Palm and Access get what they really wanted. It seems that hope wasn't well-founded. Palm made the jump to WinMob and Access still has the Palm OS (and it is included in their development plans as well). Since I don't see any realistic hope in Palm re-acquiring the Palm OS, I'm now hoping that Palm is developing their own OS. Maybe all of those software programmers are really working on the "third business" and we all will be completely amazed next year. But I wouldn't "bank on it". As far as I'm concerned, it's all still just speculation at this point.
I'm still waiting for the mythical color HandEra.
carriers & devices: view from the sidelines
Thanks, David this was useful information. In principle I agree with you and that's the reason I thought I'd try the 680 or Blackjack for awhile, but a 12 month or more delay between the 700p on one carrier and it or the equivilant being available on another major carrier and by that time a lot of negative commentary means that it doesn't sell, right? I know there is more than enough Palm bashing, I just find the relationship between the carriers and the devices to be insufferable ;-) and at cross purposes with consumer practices. What else is new, eh?
K
========================
The reason you have to hop away from Cingular to get a 3G Treo is twofold:
1) The Palm OS does not support the UMTS networking standard that Cingular's 3G network uses. Palm will need to move to a next generation Palm OS to do this, which many (myself included) expect to happen some time next year.
2) The Treo 750, which was planned for release this quarter has been delayed (the cause of the downward guidance). That will be 3G, but it won't be Palm OS.
Cingular's HSDPA (3G) network still has a ways to go before there's good enough coverage for me to care about it. Nevertheless, I made a decision two years ago to stick with Cingular for two reasons: I like the lower cost and great coverage of the EDGE network and find the speed acceptable for my use of it; and I can change phones any time I please simply by swapping out the SIM card. Because of my business I swap in a different phone every few months (or even just for a few weeks, days, or hours) and I don't want to have to get the carrier to give me permission to activate the phone every time I switch.
I expect Palm and Cingular will probably get their respective 3G acts together pretty close to the same time next year so if you don't want to switch carriers or muddle through with a Windows Mobile Treo a little patience may be what you need. Not that that probably sounds like good news to you, but there it is.
humbug
thats what she said!
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Palm Slashes Estimates
http://www.thestreet.com/_dm/newsanalysis/techgames/10324443.html