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Access Aims for 30% Marketshare by 2010

Access LogoThe International Herald Tribune has an article up profiling Access. The article gives a general overview of Access' plans post acquiring PalmSource. The article states that PalmSource's current smartphone marketshare is around 4% and that Access views Microsoft as their chief competitor.

Access wants to increase its share of the mobile operating system market to 30 percent by 2010, from the 4 percent it has now as a result of the PalmSource purchase, said Tomihisa Kamada, the company's chief technical officer and co-founder.

"Mobile phones are becoming very complicated devices, and in order to meet customers' requirements, total integrated solutions are becoming very important," Kamada said. "Acquiring PalmSource allows us to do this and also allows us to cover all the important markets - the U.S., Europe, Japan and China. Integration costs for the handset makers are heavy, so if they can go to a one-stop shop they are happy to work with one company."

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30% marketshare?

AdamaDBrown @ 8/2/2006 4:32:17 PM # Q
Uh... yeah... (backs away slowly)

RE: 30% marketshare?
Foo Fighter @ 8/2/2006 4:39:01 PM # Q
They'll be lucky to sustain the current 4% share, let alone grow their market.


-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: 30% marketshare?
Foo Fighter @ 8/2/2006 4:39:48 PM # Q
That statement is even more comical coming from a company that has yet to produce a product.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com
RE: 30% marketshare?
hkklife @ 8/2/2006 4:51:53 PM # Q
Well, technically, every 700P that ships does add to their count? BUT it's too early in the game to include the 700P's figures in those numbers.

SO...which of the existing Treos out there that are PalmSource-powered comprise that 4%? It'd be the 650 alone, right?
That might be some kind of a milestone in the tech world...a company claiming 4% marketshare from a SINGLE (acquired via purchase) OS product used by ONE licensee, running an OS that's been put out to pasture

Question: Is there any phone/handset other than the 700P available (USA or otherwise) that shows an "Access-Powered" splash screen?



Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 5:13:32 PM # Q
Foo Fighter wrote:
That statement is even more comical coming from a company that has yet to produce a product.

At least ACCESS knows something about the product they plan to license so widely, which is a lot more than you can say.

I think 30% is pretty optimistic, but I think you guys are way off base if you think ALP won't get a much bigger reach than Palm OS ever has. Symbian's sun stands well past noon and Linux's is rising very rapidly (they blew past Microsoft months ago).

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
#*377 @ 8/2/2006 5:30:42 PM # Q
I don't think it's at all fair to flame someone for not knowing anything about a product when the company makes next to nothing publicly available. One high-level system diagram and pages and pages of marketing speak don't really cut it. I'm sure that's likely to change after the convention in SF, but as for now, there's not much to look at.

RE: 30% marketshare?
Foo Fighter @ 8/2/2006 5:31:30 PM # Q
>> "At least ACCESS knows something about the product they plan to license so widely, which is a lot more than you can say."

What does that have to do with anything? You're saying that because we don't know anything about ALP yet, I should just accept Access's claims on face value? Sorry, I don't subscribe to that school of thought. Nor do I believe that simply because there is some form of Linux running under the hood that will make ALP and instant success story.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 6:26:26 PM # Q
Foo Fighter wrote:
You're saying that because we don't know anything about ALP yet, I should just accept Access's claims on face value?

I'm saying that because you don't know anyting about ALP yet you should base your views on something besides that ignorance.

Nor do I believe that simply because there is some form of Linux running under the hood that will make ALP an instant success story.

Neither do I. But I can tell you that as well as Linux is doing right now, there are to date no complete, open Linux phone platforms out there like ALP. There are a lot of sucky one-offs, a few pretty complete platforms with crap UIs (most notably Motorola), some sleeper candidates like Maemo, some dinky startups with no operator connections, some grandiose plans on paper, and then there is ACCESS that's actually far enough along to give early access to developers in two weeks.

The biggest and fastest growing smartphone markets are pushing back on Microsoft and Symbian and begging for Linux. The best they can get so far is the Motorola Ming, so that's what they are buying. Moto sold a million of them last quarter. If PalmSource can deliver a reasonably good smartphone platform on Linux with something close to the usability of Palm OS, they could do very well, whether or not Palm is interested.


David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 7:28:04 PM # Q
I don't think it's at all fair to flame someone for not knowing anything about a product when the company makes next to nothing publicly available.

I'm not flaming. I'm just pointing out that lacking these details he should look around at some of the other factors I mentioned, which support the idea that ACCESS (a) already sells a ton of feature phones and smartphones running CMS's mFone and mLinux platform, and (b) assuming PalmSource doesn't completely screw up there's a lot of pent up demand for a complete Linux smartphone platform like ALP and not a lot of good platforms to fill it.

I'm not saying it's a slam dunk, just that you ignore these market factors at your peril when you make predictions like "they'll be lucky to sustain the current 4%."

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
Foo Fighter @ 8/2/2006 9:05:19 PM # Q
>> "I'm saying that because you don't know anyting about ALP yet you should base your views on something besides that ignorance."

Sauce for the goose. I could say the same thing to you. After all, you don't know anything about ALP either.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 9:22:04 PM # Q
Foo Fighter wrote:
...you don't know anything about ALP either.

I don't pretend to. See above.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
EdH @ 8/3/2006 1:41:47 PM # Q
cervezas wrote:
I'm not flaming. I'm just pointing out that lacking these details he should look around at some of the other factors I mentioned, which support the idea that ACCESS (a) already sells a ton of feature phones and smartphones running CMS's mFone and mLinux platform, and (b) assuming PalmSource doesn't completely screw up there's a lot of pent up demand for a complete Linux smartphone platform like ALP and not a lot of good platforms to fill it.

What does mFone and feature phones have to do with anything here? They are clearly talking about PalmOS as the smartphone market and that is the basis for their 4%->30% goal, as seen in these two paragraphs from that article:

"Now the software company Access, which recently bought the maker of the Palm operating system, PalmSource, aims to set a standard for cellphone software. The company, based in Tokyo, is committing itself to a battle with Microsoft, Symbian and others for control of the operating systems of high-end cellular phones."

and...

"Access wants to increase its share of the mobile operating system market to 30 percent by 2010, from the 4 percent it has now as a result of the PalmSource purchase, said Tomihisa Kamada, the company's chief technical officer and co-founder."

mFone and feature phones don't enter into the picture for this market, as ACCESS itself just stated. That is just a red herring you've thrown out to detract from the pie-in-the-sky 750% marketshare increase they are projecting.

Meanwhile, they aren't doing so hot with the 700p - production delays due to software problems. http://www.digitimes.com/telecom/a20060803A9049.html

RE: 30% marketshare?
AdamaDBrown @ 8/3/2006 1:59:30 PM # Q
I agree that MFone is irrelevant to the central topic, but I think that Access is mainly building hype for ALP rather than PalmOS or any other current product. There's certainly no way that they could grow the marketshare of either MFone or PalmOS to that extent. No way they could do that with ALP, either, but companies tend to be a little more unreal about their new ventures than their old ones.

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/3/2006 4:06:34 PM # Q
The article talks about PalmSource, it's true, but mFone was acquired with PalmSource and ACCESS's share of the "mobile operating system" market is determined by shipments of the mFone for Smartphones platform as well as ALP and Palm OS. I don't see any reason to ignore this just because we'd like to believe that they are talking about ALP constituting that whole slice of the pie.

Having said that, I really don't know what ACCESS's plans for mFone are. Perhaps they'll scuttle the smartphone version after ALP launches and only keep the feature phone version.

Anyway the original reason I brought up mPhone was in response to the chorus that "ACCESS doesn't even have a product."

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
AdamaDBrown @ 8/3/2006 6:41:41 PM # Q
I don't see any reason to ignore this just because we'd like to believe that they are talking about ALP constituting that whole slice of the pie.

Perhaps because MFone currently constitutes less than half a percent of the global market? And do you really think that they're going to let two of their products compete with each other, if even partially, after blowing so much money on building their next-generation Netfront/Linux platform?

RE: 30% marketshare?
cervezas @ 8/3/2006 6:55:38 PM # Q
Perhaps because MFone currently constitutes less than half a percent of the global market?

Gotta link? I'd be interested to know what their shipments are.

Anyway, sorry I ever mentioned mFone, frankly. It seems to have diverted all the discussion away from the main point I was making, which is that ALP is actually a pretty unique platform in a market segment (Linux smartphones) that is growing rapidly despite the weak offerings from the likes of leader Motorola. 30% market share is just posturing, but given the factors I mentioned, half of that wouldn't be at all unreasonable if ALP is done well.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: 30% marketshare?
EdH @ 8/3/2006 8:00:08 PM # Q
cervezas wrote:
The article talks about PalmSource, it's true, but mFone was acquired with PalmSource and ACCESS's share of the "mobile operating system" market is determined by shipments of the mFone for Smartphones platform as well as ALP and Palm OS. I don't see any reason to ignore this just because we'd like to believe that they are talking about ALP constituting that whole slice of the pie.

I agree. I see no reason to ignore this either. It wasn't brought up in the article as being part of the smartphone strategy, it isn't part of the 4% to 30% goal by 2010 (unless you are advocating that the 4% it currently has is PalmOS and mFone together, which really means PalmOS is less than a bugfart in the world today, compared to Microsoft's 12% share mentioned in the article) and it wasn't even mentioned in the article, but hey, let's not let facts get in the way of this thread.

So, mFone. Is it part of the 4% or not? If PalmOS is further marginalized. If not, stop bringing it up.

RE: 30% marketshare?
EdH @ 8/3/2006 8:21:22 PM # Q
Meant to say: So, mFone... is it part of the 4% or not? If so PalmOS is further marginalized. If not, stop bringing it up.


RE: 30% marketshare?
scstraus2 @ 8/7/2006 7:15:36 AM # Q
At least Access is showing some balls and vision here. Unlike Palm who seems determined to piss away what marketshare they have.

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lost in translation

#*377 @ 8/2/2006 5:14:44 PM # Q
Access: We don't have a product yet. No biggie. And we just lost the only commitment we had to use our non-existent product from the only licensee we had. But they're so totally going to use it. Oh, and we do have some market share from the products we acquired. Sure, it's dwindling, and down to about 4% but what-ever. You're just going to have to like, totally trust us, that by next year we'll have that number up to 10%..no wait..50%..umm, would you believe 30%. Yeah, 30%.


Reply to this comment

Um, people?

PenguinPowered @ 8/2/2006 5:42:20 PM # Q
Access does have a product. Three actually. Netfront is its staple product, PalmOS Garnet, as a result of the Palm purchase runs on smartphones, and CMS mfone runs on feature phones.

At the rate the Chinese market is growing, Access could become a major player just by growing CMS' mfone business without ever shipping ALP.

May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Um, people?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 6:11:49 PM # Q
People keep forgetting that PalmSource has almost 50 different handsets already on the market, not counting the ones that run Palm OS.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog
RE: Um, people?
Gekko @ 8/2/2006 6:15:41 PM # Q

Enough with the "One Billion Chinamen" argument. The Phillip Morris cheerleaders used it in the 90's and it's just silly.


RE: Um, people?
Gekko @ 8/2/2006 6:20:29 PM # Q
>People keep forgetting that PalmSource has almost 50 different handsets already on the market, not counting the ones that run Palm OS.


yes, that's easy to forget when 49 of them don't sell.


RE: Um, people?
#*377 @ 8/2/2006 6:54:50 PM # Q
It states right in the blurb to the article that the 30% refers to the "mobile operating system market." NetFront is not an OS. They do not have a product yet in that market.


RE: Um, people?
cervezas @ 8/2/2006 7:19:21 PM # Q
I'm not talking about NetFront. I'm talking about the phones that run the PalmSource/CMS mFone and mLinux operating systems.

Here you go: http://www.mobilesoft.com.cn/product/phone_show.htm



David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Um, people?
PenguinPowered @ 8/2/2006 7:58:10 PM # Q
Enough with the "One Billion Chinamen" argument. The Phillip Morris cheerleaders used it in the 90's and it's just silly.

China is already the world's largest cell phone market.

It ain't getting any smaller.


May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Um, people?
xolstis @ 8/3/2006 12:42:29 AM # Q
Some people don't seem to realise that there's a world out there outside of the US

-the harbinger-
RE: Um, people?
Gekko @ 8/3/2006 8:17:41 AM # Q

my point was that many outsiders have hyped up their personal market potential with the "Billion Chinamen" and few have been successful. it ain't that easy.


RE: Um, people?
cervezas @ 8/3/2006 9:30:51 AM # Q
I guess the question is, how much of an outsider is ACCESS when they have Chinese employees working out of Nanjing that have been successfully marketing phone platforms for the Chinese market for years now?


David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
www.pikesoft.com/blog

RE: Um, people?
twrock @ 8/3/2006 10:11:15 AM # Q
it ain't that easy.

No doubt. Many "high-powered" foreign companies have not been able to figure out a way of working successfully in the Chinese market.

I guess the question is, how much of an outsider is ACCESS when they have Chinese employees working out of Nanjing that have been successfully marketing phone platforms for the Chinese market for years now?

That was the question when PalmSource bought CMS, and it still is the question. But I have a hunch that ACCESS has a better chance of "working successfully" in the Chinese market than PalmSource did. I'm also thinking that if something is going to "fail", the first thing will be "Palm OS" as we have grown to love it. But then again, Palm just might be cooking up their own OS. It'll be fun to watch this play out.

It might not be the "mythical color HandEra", but I'm liking my TX anyway.

RE: Um, people?
PenguinPowered @ 8/3/2006 1:47:36 PM # Q
my point was that many outsiders have hyped up their personal market potential with the "Billion Chinamen" and few have been successful. it ain't that easy.

Which is why you buy an established Chinese company if you want to play in that market.

Which is why I have maintained all along that ACCESS, who bid against PSRC for CMS in the first place, but lost, bought PSRC.

And having lost once, were willing to pay too much to not lose again.



May You Live in Interesting Times

RE: Um, people?
SeldomVisitor @ 8/3/2006 1:51:38 PM # Q
But but but but...some of us think they lost again BECAUSE of the purchase of PSRC...

RE: Um, people?
AdamaDBrown @ 8/3/2006 2:11:48 PM # Q
Which is why you buy an established Chinese company if you want to play in that market.

Even so, the Chinese market is a meatgrinder. It would be very hard to grow your marketshare there. Buying CMS certainly didn't help PalmSource, and is it just me or have we heard nothing from GSPDA for many months?

RE: Um, people?
PenguinPowered @ 8/3/2006 2:20:16 PM # Q
Buying CMS certainly didn't help PalmSource

I dunno. It got them bought out for a premium...

May You Live in Interesting Times

Marty was right all along. Oh dear.
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 8/3/2006 7:08:15 PM # Q
Which is why I have maintained all along that ACCESS, who bid against PSRC for CMS in the first place, but lost, bought PSRC.

And having lost once, were willing to pay too much to not lose again.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think Marty was right about China MobileSoft being the main (ONLY?) thing Access wanted from the PalmSource purchase. What makes no sense is how Access could allow Palm(Source) to outbid Access and buy CMS for peanuts a few years ago, only to spend $100 million more than necessary buying a lot of useless crap (PalmOS) with the PalmSource purchase a short time later. Was Access really that clueless?

I still doubt CMS will turn into the goldmine Access apparently thinks it will. Wait until Chinese cellular companies decide to go with "free" Linux cellphone OSes instead of ALP-OS + other CMS offerings. That PalmSource purchase will be even harder to swallow when Access finds the market it's looking at is just a MIRAGE.

TVoR

RE: Um, people?
PenguinPowered @ 8/3/2006 9:00:44 PM # Q
I think ACCESS let PSRC by CMS in the first place because ACCESS is very good at changing their business and so overestimated how hard it would be for them to become a "platform vendor", a "linux player", and a "Chinese market force".

This is entirely speculation on my part though, and stems in part, from my belief that ACCESS thought a Chinese competitor to CMS was about to materialize, but something happened and the competitor never materialized.

I don't think CMS was the only reason, but I think it was the main one. I think the cash flow from palmos licenses looked pretty good when ACCESS started bidding. At 200m$ purchase, it probably would have been. At 300+M, it probably doesn't look as good.


May You Live in Interesting Times

A 'Hail Mary' Pass?
Gekko @ 8/3/2006 9:29:41 PM # Q

Perhaps?

RE: Um, people?
sungod @ 8/17/2006 2:43:15 AM # Q
"What makes no sense is how Access could allow Palm(Source) to outbid Access and buy CMS for peanuts a few years ago, only to spend $100 million more than necessary buying a lot of useless crap (PalmOS) with the PalmSource purchase a short time later. Was Access really that clueless?"

The PalmOS back catalog of software would give them a major boost. Documents 2 Go for instance gives them an instant lift being able to compeet with PWord and PExcel

on a long enough timeline the survival rate of everyone drops to zero

RE: Um, people?
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 8/17/2006 10:55:25 PM # Q
The PalmOS back catalog of software would give them a major boost. Documents 2 Go for instance gives them an instant lift being able to compeet with PWord and PExcel

You're kidding, right?

http://www.dataviz.com/products/documentstogo/select_uiq.html

http://www.dataviz.com/products/documentstogo/series80/index.html

Newsflash: The PalmOS app library is no longer a factor for differentiating major platforms. Every major platform now has apps that rival (and often beat) the best PalmOS has to offer. In fact, many companies have ported their PalmOS apps to the more advanced platforms, adding features in the process.

And as I said before, "I still doubt CMS will turn into the goldmine Access apparently thinks it will. Wait until Chinese cellular companies decide to go with "free" Linux cellphone OSes instead of ALP-OS + other CMS offerings."


TVoR

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