Comments on: palmOne Reports Profitable Quarter

palmOne today reported revenue of $273.1 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2005, ended Aug. 27, which is up 62 percent from the $168.6 million reported during the comparable quarter a year ago.
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Not Good Enough

Gekko @ 9/20/2004 6:33:04 PM #
PalmOne's Blowout Not Good Enough

By Troy Wolverton
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
9/20/2004 6:06 PM EDT

PalmOne shares swung more than $10 lower (PLMO:Nasdaq - news - research) in after-hours trading after the company's blowout first-quarter earnings were eclipsed by weak guidance for the second quarter.

The company's shares initially took off in after-hours trading after the company released first-quarter earnings results, rising to $43.30 after closing up 4.6%, to $37.28 in the regular session.

But in its subsequent conference call on Monday, the smartphone maker said it expects second-quarter earnings before items of 50 cents a share, well below the current consensus expectations of 58 cents a share.

As a result, the after-hours price plummeted to $33.40, as investors scrambled to exit their positions.

http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/troywolverton/10183722.html

RE: Not Good Enough
Hal2000 @ 9/20/2004 8:22:31 PM #
'nuff said.

Zodiac2/T616
1.128 gigs under the hood.
RE: Not Good Enough
hoodoo @ 9/21/2004 8:58:56 AM #
How is that 'nuff said? Just because Gekko has some sort of strange bias against Palmone? Like, they made money, but oh sorry, it's not enough?

Also mentioned in the article, and conveniently not mentioned by Gekko:

"To be sure, palmOne did boost its outlook for its full fiscal year. The company now expects to earn $1.45 to $1.60 a share -- $1.65 to $1.80 excluding charges -- on sales ranging from $1.27 billion to $1.31 billion.

Previously, the company had predicted it would earn $1.15 to $1.25 a share -- $1.30 to $1.45 a share excluding charges -- on sales ranging from $1.21 billion to $1.29 billion this fiscal year. Wall Street's consensus is for a profit of $1.36 a share -- $1.53 excluding charges -- on sales of $1.29 billion."

The company far exceeded current expectations in earnings in the current quarter. In fact, earnings expectations for the year are in line with Wall Street estimates. Just because P1 states that Wall Street estimates for the upcoming are too aggressive, does not mean that they are suddenly losing money! Obviously the handheld market is a difficult one, but c'mon, Gekko, the anti P1 bias is ridiculous.


RE: Not Good Enough
mikecane @ 9/21/2004 9:04:40 AM #
Nah. Wait a minute here. So they expect to be below estimate. So what? The Street sets that bar, not them. What'll happen if they exceed again? (Gekko will post how the stock tanked again because p1 yet again deflated The Street's greedy expectations.)

RE: Not Good Enough
Gekko @ 9/21/2004 9:26:23 AM #

Take off your rose-colored glasses. The stock got hammered because the market doesn't like what it's hearing from PLMO. TheStreet.com article is a good balance to Ryan's "Dan Rather" article where everything appears to be just "peaches and cream" at PLMO. The market doesn't lie. This stock market pressure is good for PLMO and for customers. It squeezes PLMO and holds their feet to the fire to deliver competitive products.

RE: Not Good Enough
mikecane @ 9/21/2004 9:48:06 AM #
>>>The market doesn't lie.

Hahahaha. Spoken like someone who was asleep during the .COM robberies!

Still hanging on for amazon to go to $600 are you?

RE: Not Good Enough
hoodoo @ 9/21/2004 9:50:18 AM #
LOL. The market doesn't lie, you're right! PLMO stock is only up 340% since March, 2004 (overall 1 year return of about 160%), at the current price of about $34.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=plmo

The only people selling are the brokers who told their clients that PLMO would earn such and such and oops Palm says they might not earn that much...



RE: Not Good Enough
RhinoSteve @ 9/21/2004 11:57:32 AM #
Someone trying to sell short on PalmOne?

Treo is a bright star, future dim...

SaabCaptain @ 9/20/2004 8:36:44 PM #
The Treo 600 is a huge hit. No one can deny that. The upcoming Treo 650 seems to have a nicer backlit keyboard, bluetooth, a faster processor, and the 320x320 screen THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN on the 600.

In exchange the likely selling price WITH a celluar plan is $600+.

INSANE. The price is hugely going up vs. the common $399 Treo 600 price for what? Bluetooth and 320x320 screen? INSANE.

While it is not NEARLY a functional equivelent a similar smartphone from Blackberry (thinner, with high res screen, keyboard etc. but without the add-on software flexibility) is coming that will retail for $199 with a plan!!!!

Palm needs to think big... SHOCK the world and dominate the new smartphone category. Sell a Treo 650 for $299 with a cellphone plan! Have a thinner less capable model for $199 with a cellphone plan! Take over the industry... before you simply light the way for them to follow... and pass you.

owned: Pilot 5000, PalmPilot Pro, Palm V, Casio E-11, IIIc, m505, Sony T615, Tungsten T, iPaq 1945, Tungsten E.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
SaabCaptain @ 9/20/2004 8:41:57 PM #
PS: I would love to get a Treo 650 but they cost a bit too much and are a bit to large... so I will get the Tungsten E replacement. Considering the Tungsten T5 is rumored to have a 320x480 screen, Cobalt, Bluetooth and MAYBE Wi-Fi what does that leave the E2? I am afraid the E2 will arrive 1 1/2 years later with the same 320x320 screen and the big "new" edition: Bluetooth.

Here is hoping Palm can shock us on the PDA front too... I have my doubts but I do want a new Palm this year... we'll have to see.

owned: Pilot 5000, PalmPilot Pro, Palm V, Casio E-11, IIIc, m505, Sony T615, Tungsten T, iPaq 1945, Tungsten E.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
ChiA @ 9/20/2004 8:49:43 PM #
"In exchange the likely selling price WITH a celluar plan is $600+"

Just where does this $600 figure come from for a phone which isn't yet available?

Let's see what's on offer and at what price, then we'll be able to judge it.
Albeit, I'd admit it myself, it is kinda fun reading the rumours!

reminiscent
JarJar @ 9/20/2004 9:00:25 PM #
$600 pricing is awfully reminicent of the stratospheric Newton pricing back in the day. It costs more money to make a premium device, but the mass market can't afford premium prices.

Newtons were great devices but they were eclipsed by the less expensive, less capable, lighter Palm devices...

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
Token User @ 9/21/2004 9:36:15 AM #
Sorry - has the price been announced yet? Did I miss that one? Is there some assumption that this model is going to sell in addition to the existing Treo 600 (well maybe for the short term until stock of the existing Treo 600 that are no longer being manufactured are all sold). I expect Treo 600 to DROP in price to sell off remaining stock, and the 650 to neatly slip into its place at the same price point.

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~
RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
mikecane @ 9/21/2004 9:42:13 AM #
Well, it'll be coming soon from Sprint...

http://www.engadget.com/entry/1645422542131632/

... of course, Foo will have to wait another year or two for Verizon to pick it up.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
skeezix @ 9/21/2004 9:54:11 AM #
It is also interesting to note .. people are angry over the high prices of Treos ... but you're aware of the fact they can't be made fast enough to keep them in stock?

jeff

The Shadow knows!

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
JarJar @ 9/21/2004 10:37:52 AM #
Much has been made about the success of the Treo and how they can't make them fast enough.

Apple computer used to claim the same "problem" with its desktop computers. They were always short on inventory and claimed it was due to great demand. However, when one looked at the absolute number of Apple computers being sold, the total number was quite miniscule.

Treo 600s are selling better than the Treo 300s, but that's not saying much. The total number of Treo 600s sold is miniscule by mobile phone standards. If Handspring/Palm One wants to claim incredible demand it is because of low expectations and low production to begin with.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
hkklife @ 9/21/2004 10:57:59 AM #
I have to admit being a bit skeptical of the claims of the 600's popularity. Sure, I imagine it's selling briskly, especially outside of the USA but I don't see THAT many businesss types talking on them. It's still usually a small voice-only Nokia with a battered old Palm m505 or V for PIM purposes. Most of the widespread adoption of Treo 600s I've seen were with large-scale corporate rollouts or whatnot. When I bought my V710 at Verizon last month, I asked their biz sales rep how the Treos were selling and he said "Not as we'd hoped. They'd still too expensive". I suppose that will be true (and then some!) for the Treo 650.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
Admin @ 9/21/2004 12:01:55 PM #
palmOne announced they have put the former supply constraints on the Treo 600 behind them.

-Ryan
webmaster@palminfocenter.com
RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
mikecane @ 9/21/2004 1:15:17 PM #
Let's hope they also get the *price constraints* out of the way too. Everyday people looking at a cheeeep cellphone vs the Treo, to them it's no choice: go cheeeep.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
SaabCaptain @ 9/21/2004 6:53:41 PM #
all the rumors point to $600+. of course I am hopeful for $400 but I don't bet on it. also while i am sure the user experience isn't as good seeing the "treo 600 like" new phone from Blackberry, which is the same size but thinner, with a keyboard, with a high res screen, with bluetooth, with full PIM, always on email etc. for $199 it makes you wonder if paying the extra money to run some PalmOs games and programs is worth it considering most of my use of Palm is in the PIM apps.

owned: Pilot 5000, PalmPilot Pro, Palm V, Casio E-11, IIIc, m505, Sony T615, Tungsten T, iPaq 1945, Tungsten E.
RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
mikecane @ 9/21/2004 7:19:56 PM #
That's the same reasoning the average person will do too.

And you can bet there will be 3rd-party apps for that Blackberry phone too.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
ChiA @ 9/22/2004 9:00:30 AM #
> >Let's hope they also get the *price constraints* out of the way too. Everyday people looking at a cheeeep cellphone vs the Treo, to them it's no choice: go cheeeep.< <

Different people have different needs, just what do you mean by 'everyday people' anyway? You'd be foolish if you need a CHEEEEP phone just for making calls and decide to buy a Treo with Bluetooth, Camera, email etc. Some people, like my father, don't even like the idea of a multifunction gadget in the first place, so he won't get a Treo even if it's as CHEEEEP as a dollar, pound, euro or whatever.

Of course, in an ideal world, we'll all be able to get the latest and greatest Treo for free -can't get cheaper than that- but ask yourself this, could you afford to put your time, money and labour into a product then give it away for nothing?

The bottom line of every company is to make money and to survive to make more money tomorrow. Money is what puts the food on the table and the Treo in the pocket.



RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
ChiA @ 9/22/2004 9:17:35 AM #
> > Apple computer used to claim the same "problem" with its desktop computers. They were always short on inventory and claimed it was due to great demand < <

Apple's problem in the past was that it didn't understand it's customer's needs: It lost money making too many low cost models nobody wanted whilst at the same time manufactured far too few of it's high end models to meet demand.

It will be interesting to know the sales figures for the Treo 600 though.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/22/2004 10:39:20 PM #
"Palm needs to think big... SHOCK the world and dominate the new smartphone category. Sell a Treo 650 for $299 with a cellphone plan! Have a thinner less capable model for $199 with a cellphone plan! Take over the industry... before you simply light the way for them to follow... and pass you."


Well said. We can assume that traditional PDAs are dead in that no one will be making major profits off them any time soon. Palm could have ensured their survival by getting their OS into EVERY phone pricepoint they can manage (including a basic phone with 8 - 16 MB RAM + no expansion for $99 or less with contract). It's probably too late now, but if they had thought "big picture" (market share) instead of per unit profits, Palm could have cut Symbian off at the knees this year.

Handspring and Palm just don't have the $$$ to compete with the big boys. The next generation of smartphones from Microsoft's licensees, Sony, Nokia and Samsung may signal Palm's swan song.

After sticking wth Palm's OS from the original Pilot to a string of others and ending up with a Treo 600 (deceased) and UX50, I won't be switching platforms unless absolutely necessary. But I suspect most potential phone buyers are OS-agnostic and wouldn't blink if Palm disapeared overnight.



**************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

RE: Treo is a bright star, future dim...
AyDb @ 9/23/2004 12:52:29 PM #
We can assume that traditional PDAs are dead in that no one will be making major profits off them any time soon.

Wrong. Dell and HP have no problem making serious money off traditional handhelds--much more money than anybody makes off smartphones outside Japan or South Korea.

I wish Palm would cut out the nonsense.

The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/22/2004 10:16:27 PM #
Does anyone here bother to cut through the layers of BS and get to the FACTS?

"Net income in the first quarter of fiscal year 2005, measured on a non-GAAP basis, totaled $21.9 million, or $0.43 per share, excluding the effects of amortization of intangible assets and deferred stock-based compensation."

Don't make me laugh. Palm's paying millions per quarter in guaranteed stock buyouts to those (now useless) sacred cows Jeff and Donna. Not to mention the cash being siphoned off by the leeches on their Board of Directors. It's sad to see a corporation ransacked by parasites all trying to cash in before this deck of cards implodes. If you've ever spoken to any of the people that Palm has "downsized" in the past three years, you'll understand just how obscene this all is. Between the leeches and repayment of loans etc., Palm hasn't turned a truly profitable quarter in three years. How long can they keep this up? Where's their "white knight"? IBM? Nope. Apple? Don't think so. Sony? Oops! Samsung? Hmmmm...

All from a company who's market cap a few years ago was higher than the GNP of a lot of third world countries.

"Once I built a railroad..."



**************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

RE: I wish Palm would cut out the nonsense.
Gekko @ 9/22/2004 10:51:19 PM #
RE: I wish Palm would cut out the nonsense.
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/22/2004 11:22:41 PM #
Where did you get that sound bite of Carl "The Truth" Yankowski? I'd forgotten he said that!




***************************************************
Sony CLIE UX100: 128 MB real RAM, OLED screen. All the PDA anyone really ever wanted.

Cracking the PalmSource code

Gekko @ 9/23/2004 12:32:54 PM #
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