Comments on: PocketFactory's Mobile Technology Predictions for 2005

Nice set of predictions. Yes Cobalt will be showing its blue luster sooner than most of us think.

... and I predict Mike Cane out of here and discredited as much as Rather and company at CBS News were ax'ed this year.

If you throw enough shiit against the wall, something's going to stick.

I don't give a rat's ass about smartphones. Give me a big screen PDA anyday at a fraction of the price w/o the features I won't use. Sad thing is, even among smartphones, basic models seem to be going away. Every damn smartphone has to have a camera for one thing.

[signature0]the secret to enjoying your job is to have a hobby that's even worse[/signature0]
[signature1]My PDAs: Visor --> Visor Neo (blue) --> Zire 71.... so ends the "marathon", for now[/signature1]

Oh, wait a minute...

PDAs are dead.

So are predictions.

Go Mac Mini!

It seems doubtful to me that RIM would release a device running anything else than their proprietary operating system, the core of which is a custom Java VM that is used for almost all the client-side apps. In fact, RIM has been licensing their environment to other device manufacturers through their BlackBerry Built-In program. Siemens has released a phone with BlackBerry support, for example. RIM also licenses its email connectivity through the BlackBerry Connect program, and PalmSource has signed up for that program.

"but Dell will market directly to corporate customers through agreements with wireless carriers."

I don't think that we will see this any time soon. What will Dell bring to the table that other cell phones vendors can't? The PC direct distribution model does not work in every market. So Dell will probably repackage and resell some HTC phones, and this will make the cell providers want to give up valuable customer relationship and potential profit????

I disagaree.

Though, it would be nice if Palm would make them nicer, and particularly thinner.

The last time I heard, Palm was selling more Zires than they were any other model besides the E.

"All opinions posted are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled."

Re: the declining handheld market... People keep saying this, and it doesn't make it true. Handheld sales are relatively steady, aside from the predictable seasonal highs and lows, and they continue to outclass smartphones by a factor of three to one. I equate people saying that the handheld market is dead with people saying that the automobile market was dead after Ford sold a couple of million models, on the grounds that everyone who needs a car now has one. Desktop PCs were around for what, 15-20 years before they became staples of the home? Likewise cell phones. Compared to other forms of technology, handhelds are practically on the fast-track.

There's absolutely no reason for Dell to pull out of the market, and you're wrong in assuming that they can't dominate. While they're hurt by a lack of retail presence, their sales have been climbing continuously, and they pose a noticible threat to HP and PalmOne.

I agree on embedded hard drives and the fate of Tapwave.

The chances of VGA on a Palm are almost non-existant. It would break all existing full-screen 320 x 480 software. And PalmOne is not abandoning the Zires under any circumstances. Zire sales make up a large percentage of P1's sales, and without them they would sink to second or third place.

I disagree completely on the idea that PDAs are dead. That's been the chant of prognosticators for what, two years now? Since it was first decided that smartphones would kill handhelds, smartphones have languished in the technological back woods, and handhelds have gotten cheaper, more powerful, and more common.

Oh the doom and gloom predictions are out...
Hey guys, wake up and smell the liquid caffiene. Of course the PDA is dead and well it should die. The smartphone is the next progression of handheld computing. For my money, a handheld computing device SHOULD incorporate wireless capabilities. The very idea of selling a handheld computing device without a way of connecting to the rest of the world is just plain STUPID, just like making a handheld without a color screen. I had a Tungsten W for a while, and I'm now looking forward to getting a Treo at some point in the future. Technology always marches on.

This is one thing that's sure to happen: the C will get replaced by something. You can track the price on it and tell that it's approaching the end of its life.

I'm excited about the possibilities for a C replacement.

I'm guessing it will have a thumb-board, since WiFi and texting/email go hand in hand. And it will have the compulsory features: SD, rechargeable battery, stylus, touch screen.

Other features are open to speculation:
- Removable battery? Possibly with an optional oversized version for extra power.
- Clamshell design?
- 320x480 screen?
- VGA screen? (Doubtful for a successful device: too much power required on top of WiFi)
- More than one SD port? It would be interesting if they put in a second port built into a niche in the outside of the case into which the Palm WiFi card would fit flush, giving you WiFi, but an extra port for file swapping when you need to.
- Cobalt? No. If they had the ability to release a usable Cobalt device, they wouldn't be moving to Linux.

"All opinions posted are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled."

Whilst candid, I don't think that there's anything particularly prescient about these predictions.

The PDA as was is just evolving into the "Handheld Computer" as is.

If you look at Apple's (and the Microsoft laggard) strategy based around the "Digital Hub" it's pretty clear that the desktop metaphor and people being chained to the desk like 21st Century factory workers (albeit with a latte) is being exchanged for a more mobile lifestyle. So we see products like the iPod and digital camera's which are only of any use when based around a desktop hub (or application server) that lets us manage our stuff. Add to this an increasingly wireless environment whether it's provided by bluetooth, 802.whatever, zigbee, dinosaur telco, etc and we have the perfect conditions for a PDA renaissance.

Of course there is going to be a scuffle in the traditional mobile telco operator vs new breed VoIP operators using 802. solutions but hopefully that's all good for the users who are currently being robbed on GSM & GPRS call & data charges.

There are also so many vertical market applications for which handheld computers are perfect. These include "one per child" use in education where a handheld has many compelling advantages over laptops and tablet PC's, likewise Police, medical, military, professions.

The PDA is dead, long live the Handheld Computer!

The Handheld Learning Forum

http://www.handheldlearning.co.uk/community/forum/

I wish I could be The Derek... sigh...

I don't think so.

China. 3 billion+ potential consumers.

A P1 Cobalt VGA tungsten????

You're smoking crack.

Everything else makes sense.

A lot of this is semantics. Most cell phones today incorporate PIM functionality of some sort... so the PDA is far from dead. It's just that people want wireless connectivity and cellular is in many cases the only available option. The untold story here is the still largely untapped power of the World Wide Web and all its P2P riches. Mobile media players as currently implemented intentionally miss the point as do "smart" phones like the Treo 650 which have disabled file sharing. It's all about P2P and the sooner the RIAA et al accept this the better. Until then we will continue to see more poorly concieved and poory received devices and "content." You see, the ugly truth is that more work is going into finding ways to thwart and disable "media" than to enable it. It will probably take a Supreme Court decision to remove the roadblocks to true progress... that is, if the Court is in a position to fully understand the First Amendment issue at stake.

>>>In terms of new features, look for the first hard drive based PDAs to arrive later this year, most likely from the Pocket PC camp, not PalmOne.

Oh come on. I had to dig this up.

People forget (unless *I* write it).