Comments on: Treo 'Hollywood' Images Leaked?

I am disappointed too but obviously not AS much as you are. I was just hoping for an even sleeker formfactor that somehow deviated a bit more from the 700w other than hacking off the antenna and making the unit a tad thinner.

Palm's targeting this thing at the same executive types who bought Palm V's in droves in '99/'00 and Blackberries & RAZRs in the past few years----solid but unspectacular specs and a premium $ put on style & sleekness.

Remember, compared to a standard Treo or a BB this thing is still fairly sleek. Also, compared to a BB, the 700w/Hollywood specs still are very strong.

This is the same ol' componentry that Palm uses in most of their other devices but in a snazzy new casing.

Palm had better get the 700P out ASAP before any more Hollywood pics circulate. Otherwise the 700P is bound to look even clunkier and more of a retread than it already does! Maybe having four different colors of the 700P will help distinguish it?

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No Lowrider this year either?

So....assuming Adama is correct ( I have zero reason to doubt him) that makes the four new Treos for '06 the following, in order of likely release schedule:

700W CDMA (Verizon only)

700P CDMA (Sprint only)

700P GSM (Cingular & everyone else globally)

700W GSM (T-Mobile & Cingular but primarily for global markets)

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Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

Probably. At the very least, it could be expected to launch with AKU2, which is a kind of service pack for Windows Mobile, which the 700w won't get until late this month. This includes push email, some other tweaks, and possibly Bluetooth headphone support.

Ryan wrote:
If Adama's source is correct that could indicate that these images here could be the Treo 700w for GSM networks.

Assuming the pics are legit, that would be my guess. The specs are too close to the 700w to make sense having a GSM version of that, plus this.

Why no standout features at all?

One must remember this is suppose to be a low-end phone. One does not see "new" or "standout" features in low-end devices. The only "standout" feature one should expect is price. For that we will have to wait and see.

http://img414.imageshack.us/img414/8947/roguesgallery27fw.jpg

For the limited features, its just not pretty enough. If they want the suits to buy it they better make it fit in a suite without making a bulge.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

I'm not seeing it. Half those devices aren't even close to sleek. I've seen the P51's predecessor in person. And "modern" is rather in the eye of the beholder. Can you see a single design ethic common to all those devices other than "rectangle with buttons and a screen"?

That's what I was surmising in the TC forums. If these images are real, it seems like little more than an antenna-less 700w (possibly *slightly* lighter and thinner) which is likely possible *because* it's GSM.

I sure hope that when Palm said that they'd have 3-4 new Treos they weren't just talking about these slight variations for each network. One article quoted a Palm rep (Colligan?) as saying that we'd see new form factors. I'd like to think that he was talking about something more interesting (e.g., Nokia Communicator-styled clamshell smartphone) and not simply an antenna-less 700w. But then again, this is Palm we're talking about.

http://Tapland.com
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To amplify on what Scott means, Verizon requires phones it carries to have a stub antenna. I don't know why--maybe they're afraid their customers will forget which way to hold the phone. GSM carriers, on the other hand, have no such requirement.

I'd like to think that he was talking about something more interesting (e.g., Nokia Communicator-styled clamshell smartphone) and not simply an antenna-less 700w.

If they come out with a clamshell design like the Motorola v360, count me in for one.

If you want to edit or view office docs or add other complex apps, then you're out of luck.
You can buy a Palm E2, Tx or even Pocket PC and use DUN via Bluetooth with this tiny Samsung, hell a Tx with this phone may even be less bulky than a Treo and you get Wi-fi too!

Third: Where is the Qwerty keyboard? How many of the 'executive types who bought Palm V's in droves'will seriously even consider this to be in the running?
Maybe the same ones who bought the Palm V without a keyboard! :-)

Okay rsc1000, you do have some valid points but what I'm trying to say is that in a market where even the dumb phones can match and exceed most if not all the features on a Treo 650, Palm has to come up with smartphones with a wider market appeal if it's to get beyond selling to Palm OS devotees and upgraders. So far it's only attempt to do that was launching the Windows Mobile 700w where it faces even stiffer competition from numerous other WinMob licensees; at least with Garnet it's the dominant Palm OS smartphone manufacturer.

Good question. Simple answer: no idea. Currently, there's no evidence to suggest that there is, and no evidence to suggest that there isn't.

Treonauts is attributing to Ed Colligan a statement that Palm will make all hardware versions available in both operating systems, however this is not any kind of official statement that I'm aware of. If somebody can tell me otherwise, please do.

Funny, I recall hearing that same thing four years ago. It was no more true then than it is now. CF slots may not be present on converged devices, but there's still millions of handhelds a year sold that sport them.

The world is slowly moving away from SD to mini-SD... people want devices that fit in pockets...

Odd. All this time with devices based on CF and regular SD, and I always thought that I could put them in my pocket. I must have been hallucenating.

Handhelds in general are dying

That must be why they hit an all time sales high last year, right?

The companies that are losing out in handhelds are the ones like Palm and HP that are buying into the smartphone hype and killing their handhelds by neglect. But even Palm still sells only a few thousand more Treos than handhelds. They care more about the Treos, because that's where they can push up the selling price, but the market demand is still there.

That was mostly what I mean. HP's not bumping off their existing lines either, but by decreasing the R&D, both companies are essentially promising incrementally upgraded clones of previous devices. Not at much innovation translates to fewer sales, as compared to some of the edge-pushing models like the Palm V, iPaq 4150, Tungsten T series...

I think that they'll continue building them as well--after all, you don't lightly pull the plug on half your products. I just wish they were being a little more aggressive. Those big profits coming in off the Treos could be used to fund some riskier, more innovative designs: a digital scratchpad, like a whiteboard with beaming and internet capabilities. Or imagine a PDA built into a wallet. Or an in-dash computer for cars that handles GPS, Bluetooth handsfree/dialing, weather, and live info on traffic delays, all for under $300. New, compelling stuff to draw in customers. Even if only a fraction of the designs ever made it to market, spending that money on R&D could only help. The market for portable computing is huge, and only a small fraction of it is being tapped at the moment.

I guess I had always read those comments in a slightly different way. That is, I had thought what Palm was saying was that they saw customer demand rising for converged phone/handhelds, hence they needed to position themselves to be able to meet the demand. But when you look at those quotes again, maybe I misunderstood (again); maybe they really are preparing to just abandon handhelds altogether. I hope not, but I hear what you say.

What do I think Palm SHOULD do? Focus on the $100, $200 and $300 pricepoints exclusively for PDAs. Drop the LD line like a hot potato.

Continued tweaking of the $100 Z22 price point can bring mp3 playback ala Zire 31 and make a STRONG case for Palm in the impulse buy retail market. The $200 T|E variants will always sell to business users and people wanting a "better" basic PDA. Then focus on the $300 HVGA TX type model as being for both business users who need a large screen and media-savvy users. With the plummeting price of SD cards (4gb for $100 is stunning even if it's a non-spec SD card) Palm should try to tout its models' media capabilities more in the future.

FrankenGarnet is effectively dead BUT Palm can still keep it around as a servicable PDA OS for the next two years, especially with the large installed base of software and strong brand/name recognition. With HP just milking their line with nothing other than a few OS & memory updates and Dell essentially announcing that they are not releasing any new Axims, Palm is within a few inches of seizing the remnants of the PDA market. And of course, as professionals & gadget freaks switch over to cellphones Palm can continue to push PDAs to schoolkids & in emerging markets.

Canning the PDA line would be falling prey to the "chicken little" mentality of the rest of the industry and would prove a very foolhardy move indeed for Palm. Of course we all know Palm is no stranger to foolish missteps but I really hope their renewed enthusiasm is for real. Five months into '06 and one out of four new Treos on store shelves isn't an encouraging sign by any means.

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This almost-show-stopping bug is not present on the Treo 600 or 650--just the Verizon 700W.

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Do you have ANY idea/insight if there is to be a 700P on any carrier other than Sprint? Like Verizon in particular (my current carrier who I've been with ~8 years)?

That would be the major issue standing in the way of me at least giving a Treo a shot...but here in the sticks, Verizon is the only carrier to have if you care at all about coverage once you leave a major metro area or interstate.

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In Linux land, nothing is ever that simple. ;)

May You Live in Interesting Times

This is incorrect. The Sagio report was dated September, not November. And the codenames were reported by a Morgan Stanley analyst in Asia who covers HTC. Sagio was just repeating the information. Presumably the codenames were HTC's rather than Palm's. Perhaps that's where the confusion arises?

Sorry if I come off as hostile, but it annoys me when someone comes out and blithely says "Oh, you're completely wrong," apparently without knowing the facts.

I'm sorry if I came off as not "knowing the facts." I don't claim to know everything, but before you get too annoyed you might consider that you might not have all the facts either. Furthermore, given the abiguity over the code names it seems to me that we may be describing different ends of the same elephant rather than actually disagreeing.

I don't know whether the Morgan Stanley guy got the code names right and I don't know whose code names they were if he did. My point was that based on the most recent information I've got, the thrust of Sagio's report seems to be correct: after the 700p (confirmed: it exists) there's a new Windows Mobile Treo aimed at the European market and a new Palm OS Garnet Treo.

I've got some more detailed information to report about upcoming Treos but I gotta save something for my own blog, don't I?

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Actually, it was dated October, but only published in November.

And the codenames were reported by a Morgan Stanley analyst in Asia who covers HTC. Sagio was just repeating the information.

No, Sagio referred to an anonymous MS analyst, cited nowhere else, who supposedly estimated production (they didn't specify of what) at 200,000 units a month. They didn't attribute the Hollywood and Lowrider information to Morgan Stanley. I for one find the lack of attribution and references highly curious, for a document that's supposedly a serious financial report.

I must note, the original Sagio report also claimed that the 700p would be out in January simultaneous to the 700w, and the Hollywood and Lowrider would be out in March. Considering this--and the atrocious english in what's supposed to be a serious research report--I find it surprising that people still rely on it as a roadmap of Palm's plans.

Presumably the codenames were HTC's rather than Palm's. Perhaps that's where the confusion arises?

HTC doesn't usually assign names to contracted units, only the devices they build themselves to resell, like the Wizard.

so while schedules slip it's simply not the case that Sagio made up that Palm told them these were the plans.

My information suggests differently.

As for the information I gave about the source of the "Hollywood" and "Lowrider" code names, let's just say it was not based on the Sagio report and leave it at that.

Oooh booga booga.

Just realize that by whatever name you please there *is* a real Treo that is aimed at the fashion-conscious European market, that it will run Windows Mobile, and that it's coming Real Soon Now.

If you call getting in line with practically every other major manufacturer by bringing the antenna internal, "aiming at Europe," maybe. But an antennaless GSM 700w isn't the same thing as the "Hollywood" was billed as. Feel free to think that it is, if you like.

Real Soon Now... no. Not for several months, at least.

Hollywood was never "billed" as anything but this:

"a fancier 3G/GSM smartphone which will represent PALM's first attempt at the European GSM market. We know the phone will have no external antenna and will probably he launched by Cingular in the US." (http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=8224)

To my knowledge, the rest of the information about this plan (like that it was going to be "a very thin 3G device" or a "clamshell") was just people letting their imagination run wild in answer to the question "what does Palm think Europeans will buy?" So calling it a hoax while apparently agreeing with the substance of the report is a bit disingenuous. As is mocking the fact that I have to keep my source confidential when you apparently have the same problem.

One thing to think about when it comes to what is meant by an "attempt at the European market": it's only about the phone itself insofar as Palm had to convince a major European operator to release it. After that the attempt is all about marketing. I expect changes to the Treo to be incremental in degree but many in number.

I'll post on my blog later today for those who were waiting. Just a couple of other tidbits to report.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

In short, for the current devices being released 3G is not a prerequisite. However devices released 6 months from now probably need to be 3G.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

T9 text messaging is very popular and common here, so the built-in keyboard will not be seen as such a big advantage here as in USA. Data is also very expensive here, so WIFI would make it more attractive (and I bet this device does not have it).

Blackberries have also caught on here to a degree, so just like in UK, it could be positioned as a Blackberry competitor. Many smartphones here are sold to consumers, but frankly that leaked device is not attractive enough, and lacks a video conferencing camera, which means it would be impossible to sell to consumers as a 3G phone.

Palm will have a tough job differentiating themselves over here. To tell the truth, the market is very superficial here. It mainly needs to be pretty, but this device isn't.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

Except for T-Mobile with their new web 'n' walk deals:

http://www.t-mobile.co.uk/Dispatcher?menuid=plans_webnwalk

I hope the other operators feel the need to respond to this.

[T-Mobile web 'n' walk deals], Unlimited at £7.50/month is just too irresistible.

Have you read the small print? Sadly unlimited has its resistible limitations:

To ensure a high quality of service for all our customers, they are not to be used for other activities such as (but not limited to): modem access for computers, internet based video/audio streaming services, peer to peer file sharing, internet based video download and internet based telephony. If such use is detected, notice may be given, after which network protection controls may be applied which will result in a reduced speed of transmission.

So you can forget about using Skype (or all the other fun stuff) on that new MDA Pro.

:(

My personal take on it?

-Sprint 700P is real and the release/announcement is imminent.

-Sprint 700W will follow late summer or fall

-Verizon 700P is a hoax or, at best, a VERY late entry.

-Palm is going to focus on CDMA Treos for the time being...especially the final one or two Garnet Treos.

-GSM markets/carriers seem most likely to receive only WinMob powered new Treos.

I think the "major" 650 firmware update is a hoax. However, there were several reports from late last year saying that a MAJOR Treo 650 update was in the works and would be released down the road. I think that Palm might do a moderately substantial update (FAT32 driver, memory/speed optimizations, Blazer/VM updates) but the wi-fi drivers are not gonna happen on a 650 nor is PTunes or Drive Mode.

Remember folks, Palm's now a hardware company. They consider things which COULD be fixed/improved via free/cheap software reasons all the more reason to buy new hardware.

Another wild theory is that Palm has no proper Garnet Treo in the world for GSM and it could be releasing this major ROM update only to Cingular & global GSM carriers. This might be a clever way to milk another 6-12 months of life out of the GSM Treo 650.

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NB. I have a vague recollection that, in the first press release relating to the BB Connect partnership (seems like a thousand years ago now), they said something to the effect that 'pricing will be determined'. So, depending on what kind of deal they have cut with RIM, Palm may need to charge something for the 'hoax' ROM update (if it ever materialises, that is).

You have already pointed out that a major ROM update is a way of enhancing the Treo 650's shelf-life - I agree with that, and also your point about the likelihood of that model being around for a while yet. Maybe, if the Treo 700p is ever released, Palm will drop the price of the Treo 650 so that it becomes the 'low cost' model which everyone seems to yearn for. (I doubt it will go into the $200-$300 price range, though.)

That last point of the description is key, IMHO.

Blackberry Connect anyone? (and nothing else?)

Actually, that's not terribly likely. There are almost never advance review units for smartphones. Something about working with the carrier(s) makes it impossible, apparently, to arrange pre-release distribution. (Shrug)

Well, when the 700w was released, people like Mr Mossberg published reviews virtually on the same day, which suggests that he/others got to play with it beforehand. Perhaps Palm will try to do the same thing this time round (assuming that the 700p is not just the figment of some puerile imagination). Here's another one of my conspiracy theories: Maybe Palm will just pick reviewers who have a broader reach in the popular press, rather than bestowing their 'blessings' on the leading reviewers in the handheld space (such as your good self, AdamaDBrown).

Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their profits.

it ain't, as casey stengel would say, over until it's over.

May You Live in Interesting Times

That's my point. And not all these unexpected changes are for the worse. For example, my "Deep Throat" hinted that the Vodaphone Treo deal I mentioned earlier wasn't in Palm's plans last Fall and resulted in them pushing back certain changes they'd planned for the Treo line until 2007. I get the feeling that Palm is having to make mid-stream adaptations to product plans on a shorter horizon than we might suppose in response to market developments. I'm fairly sure that they are feeling their way along in their OS plans, watching the market response to gauge whether their product plan should lean more toward Windows Mobile or Linux.

I notice some of their recent job postings even mention agile development and Extreme Programming--signs that they are focused on improving their ability to deal with sudden changes in design requirements. (Whether XP really helps them do that or not is another story.)

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2006/02/01/palm-earnings-0201markets10.html?partner=rss

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

Not sure what is meant by this. How can they do market testing on a Linux based OS that doesn't even exist?

Picture this question on a market survey:

'Dear Customer, do you prefer a) WinCE; or b) a Linux based OS we might be conjure up in a couple of years if we feel like it (maybe)?'

To me, that sounds like a choice between the devil you know and the devil you don't know. If this is what they do to ascertain market preferences, then we had all better get used to those ridiculous Start menus, bloated title/tool bars and useless Today screens.

On the other hand, the Linux thing (which for all I know may be no more than a glint in the eye of Mr Haitani et al, at this stage) has the look-and-feel of Palm OS5.x, then maybe they can do some meaningful testing.

PS. In asking these questions, I'm not trying to start another flame-war on the relative merits on rival operating systems. If the 'usual suspects' want to beat each other up again on this issue, please count me out. (For the record, OS5.4.x works just fine for the things that I need to do and I don't much care what happens under the hood.)

Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their profits.

I'd wager on BB Connect (for some carriers) being the "main" draw and then small tweaks to the NVFS system and maybe a Blazer or VM update. FAT 32 would be conceivable but unlikely. At least the Treo 650 DOES support 2gb cards in its current state. WI-FI drivers ain't gonna happen in the 650's lifetime.

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX

Looks like Palm sold about 580,000 Treos, which is about one for every 15 Nokia smartphones sold. Amazing when you consider how rare a Nokia smartphone is over here. Even the S60 phones are quite uncommon here.

David Beers
Pikesoft Mobile Computing
Software Everywhere blog
www.pikesoft.com/blog

The reality is that a lot of those Series 60 "smartphones" are, basically, just phones. They have some third-party software compatibility, and a certain amount of memory, and expansion slots, but for the most part they're just phones. Most of the people who use them would never think of them as a "smartphone," nor would they even realize that there's an operating system on their phone.

I used to feel the same way, but I have now come round to the view that that is just elitism. What people do with their devices are not really relevant. The question is, why did the OEM decide to use one OS over another. Why did sharp go for Symbian vs windows mobile, or even a cheaper RT-OS? Even Nokia pays out millions to Symbian for the use of the OS (They get 50% back, but still) and the OS has higher BOM needs. It must be fulfilling need, and its a need which WM and of course POS is not managing to fill.

Maybe in the future?

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

The people who will grow the market for smart devices are not so much the people who will do spreadsheets on their device, but those that listen to mp3's, watch videos and take pictures. The challenge for smart devices is to do these things better than dumb devices. I am personally surprised that better flickr intergration is coming to dumb phones before smartphones, and downloading music on the move is coming to the rockr before the Treo. This is a huge failure in my opinion.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...

I certainly consider it a "smart" phone.

I have no idea what OS, though, nor care.

Or one could just give up on competing in that market and go be a major player in some other segment.

May You Live in Interesting Times