Comments on: Palm Reports Preliminary Q1 FY07 Results

Palm today reported preliminary financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2007, ended Sept. 1. Full results will be reported Sept. 21.

Based on preliminary financial data, Palm expects revenue to be in the range of $354 million to $356 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2007. This compares with earlier guidance of $380 million to $385 million provided June 29, when Palm reported its fourth quarter fiscal year 2006 results. The revenue shortfall was primarily due to lower Treo volumes in carrier retail channels.

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The Q is biting

Surur @ 9/6/2006 5:28:09 PM # Q

Palm can not escape the competition for the same market, and also faces the saturation of their key loyal POS users, who are increasingly resistant to move to smartphones, and also refuse to move to WM.

Many Q sales are Treo losses, and Palm is being punished by businesses for trying to sell a crippled 700w to them. The release of the HP 6920, E62, HTC Excalibur, Samsung SGH i320 are all going to eat up Palm's market share.

This could be the end of the Treo phenomena

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: The Q is biting
freakout @ 9/7/2006 9:08:14 AM # Q
Palm is being punished by businesses for trying to sell a crippled 700w to them.

On that subject, I wonder how Verizon feels about the 700wx.

RE: The Q is biting
Foo Fighter @ 9/7/2006 9:11:57 AM # Q
>> "On that subject, I wonder how Verizon feels about the 700wx."

In what regard? It's features, or the mere fact that Sprint now has the WM Treo as well? If it's the latter you're referring, Verizon shouldn't feel anything other than indifference. Palm's exclusive contract with VZ has now expired, so any competing carrier now has the opportunity to market this Treo as any other.

Real question will be...how will Verizon and Sprint customers feel about the 750 GSM model, with its possibly thinner form, and sleeker design (thanks the removal of the nipple antenna)? A lot of their customers are going to looking at Cingular customers and wondering..."How come this guy's Treo doesn't have an antenna, and is thinner than my brick Treo?"

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: The Q is biting
Nycran @ 9/7/2006 9:35:25 AM # Q
"This could be the end of the Treo phenomena"

That's non-committal, perhaps meaningless Surer. Is, or is not, there is no could. Are you going to go on the record as saying that this IS the end of the Treo phenomena?

RE: The Q is biting
Surur @ 9/7/2006 11:16:30 AM # Q
I left my crystal ball at home unfortuanately. However if Palm had 3 quarters of declining shipments I would confidently say yes (as I am sure you would too).

Actually, now that you have put me on the spot I shall make a commitment - the Treo ecosystem provides too little value to the market (both business and consumer) that they wish to attract, and their products have been lackluster at best. I pronounce this the end of the Treo phenomena, and this will be visible in consistently poor sales worldwide and domestically.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: The Q is biting
JBoogie @ 9/7/2006 1:53:08 PM # Q
add crippled 700p to that as well.
RE: The Q is biting
hkklife @ 9/7/2006 9:35:54 PM # Q
Don't you mean "Add a buggy, unpatched (as of 9/7/'06), and crippled 700P..."?

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P
RE: The Q is biting
e_tellurian @ 9/7/2006 9:45:10 PM # Q
What of going to the old world and asking watch makers to help build more choices, such as micro drivers? Why these folks? Well they have good knowledge of making small things water,dust tight and atmospheric tolerant.

The point is to offer customers the choice to remove the hard drive as an option. Based on various data some may want this option even if it costs more. The choice would be dependent on application purposes.

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

RE: The Q is biting
freakout @ 9/8/2006 10:33:34 AM # Q
freak:
>> "On that subject, I wonder how Verizon feels about the 700wx."

foo:
In what regard? It's features, or the mere fact that Sprint now has the WM Treo as well?

It's features. Specifically the extra memory. Were I Verizon, I'd be annoyed. And expecting a discount on my obviously inferior 700ws. And if/when the 750v arrives on Cingular it'd really tick me off.

Surur said
Actually, now that you have put me on the spot I shall make a commitment - the Treo ecosystem provides too little value to the market (both business and consumer) that they wish to attract, and their products have been lackluster at best. I pronounce this the end of the Treo phenomena, and this will be visible in consistently poor sales worldwide and domestically.

If Nitro is as nice-looking as the 750v (and has a real SD slot) then I think it may well keep Palm and the Treo afloat. As has been pointed out here ad nauseam Palm have squandered their opportunity to corner the smartphone market. But that market is still relatively new and still growing, and not cornering it doesn't mean not being able to profit from it. Treos are a pretty neat little package all round and despite being overpriced and having some irritating quirks (which you get with any consumer electronics device) you can get a lot out of them.

There's always room for a good product, and Treos have survived this long not just because of the Palm brand but also because they're pretty good at what they profess to do.

As always, interesting times ahead. ;)

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650

RE: The Q is biting
Surur @ 9/8/2006 11:23:38 AM # Q

Its not the quality of the Nitro by itself, its the quality of the competition, especially if they are similarly or lower priced e.g all the rest of the competition have 1.3 Mpixel cameras or up, the Nitro has VGA. All the rest are thin, the Nitro is still quite chunky. Most of the rest have fast networking, either wifi or umts. The Nitro only has EDGE. Most of the rest have A2DP, the Nitro has not.

Comparing the Nitro to the competition, it comes of rather poorly. It will end up being a small fish in a big pond.

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: The Q is biting
scstraus2 @ 9/10/2006 5:12:11 PM # Q
The loss of revenue is due to them not putting out a decent new PalmOS device this year. No one wants windows mobile treos, and if that's all they are going to sell, their revenue might as well be 0.

RE: The Q is biting
Surur @ 9/10/2006 5:55:35 PM # Q
The 700p is not decent?

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: Every Treo 700p competitor is CHOMPING
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/11/2006 11:38:21 AM # Q
The 700p is not decent?

As usual, your rhetoric and feigned innocence are amusing, Surur.

No the Treo 700p is not "decent".

It is:

- $650.

- essentially the same design as the 3 YEAR OLD Treo 600.

- crippled by the inclusion of NVFS (CrapRAM™) which still causes problems with numerous PalmOS applications.

- marred by an external antenna.

- lacking Wi-Fi.

- annoyingly slow. (PalmOS users expect nearly-instantaneous opening of programs. That "snappiness" is part of what makes the PalmOS experience so enjoyable.)

- lacking a Skype client.

- lacking a Slingbox client.

- hobbled by substandard voice quality.

- large, fat and heavy.

- constrained by a Small Square Screen (320 x 320). Still it is a VERY nice looking screen.

- unstable (at least in my experince of owning one for the past month).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


Quite frankly, I'm amazed anyone could use a Treo 750p as their only cellphone. I bought mine to be used as an EVDO modem for my laptop + a backup phone/PDA. Had my expectations not been so low the phone would have been returned within a day of purchase. Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola, HTC etc all will be shipping devices in 2006 that reveal the Treo 700p to be a piece of overpriced junk. Were it not for the fact that PalmOS devotees have next to zero options for upgrading old hardware the Treo 700p would not deserve a second thought.

Consumers may do silly things, but they aren't completely stupid. If Nokia, Motorola, etc can offer cellphones that appear to be better built + with more features than the Treo 700p and at a lower price, Treo sales will quickly nosedive. As soon as Palm loses those customers I can guarantee they won't be coming back. (Just look at how many of Palm's staunchest supporters here have given up in disgust over the past year.) 2006 was the tipping point where the poor value of Treos in relation to the competition finally outweighed any perceived advantages of using PalmOS. Unless Palm suddenly starts matching the competition on BOTH features and price (or gets bought out by ******) the slide into oblivion has begun and won't stop until Palm is bankrupt. As I warned a few months ago, Palm's current financial quarter is going to send shockwaves throughout the company. Expect several job cuts and some VERY dramatic announcements later this month. Stay tuned, Kiddies...

TVoR


Correction
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/11/2006 12:25:26 PM # Q
Quite frankly, I'm amazed anyone could use a Treo 700p as their only cellphone.

(The 750p is still months away. And are Revision B Treo 700p shipping yet?)

RE: The Q is biting
hkklife @ 9/11/2006 6:37:58 PM # Q
Not to my knowledge. I saw someone with a new Sprint one last week and it was a Rev.A 700P. A poster on Treo Central was saying today how he was a Verizon "A" model as well and it's SOOOOO SLOW.

To date all that Palm has offered up in the way of 700P "fixes" is the small IR update and updated foldout keyboard drivers.

Other than general instability, how's your Treo doing as it enters its second month, Voice?

Don't forget to add the "mediocre battery life even with a 2400 mAh Seidio battery" and "Nearly useless Bluetooth" to that list.

P.S. Are the six *'s in "or gets bought out by ******" a hint that Palm has a suitor with six characters in their name? ;-)

Hmmmm....which tech company has six letters in their name and might want to cozy up with Palm?

Garmin? Nortel? Danger? Fossil? Google? Vonage? Amazon?
The possibilities boggle the mind!



Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: The Q is savaging Palm
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/11/2006 8:54:18 PM # Q
Not to my knowledge. I saw someone with a new Sprint one last week and it was a Rev.A 700P. A poster on Treo Central was saying today how he was a Verizon "A" model as well and it's SOOOOO SLOW.

Pathetic. Palm is going to get ripped to shreds by the REAL handset manufacturers. Amateurs like Palm don't get an infinite number of chances to recover from SNAFUs.

To date all that Palm has offered up in the way of 700P "fixes" is the small IR update and updated foldout keyboard drivers.

I expect they will simply release Revision B phones in October and pretend there was nothing wrong with the first batch. A recall of several hundred thousand Treo 700p obviously would create a LOT of financial pain for Palm, so they probably will only replace the phones of those users who complain loudly.

Other than general instability, how's your Treo doing as it enters its second month, Voice?

It's mainly being used as a modem for my IBM X40. I've used it for around 20 calls and it actually has CRASHED during/receiving 4 calls. After the 4th crash I gave up - I now use my Samsung i500 for all voice calls and 95% of my PDA use. The 700p has been crashing several times per week, turning on randomly and has had disappointing battery life. I've used both the Palm battery and the Seidio 2400 mAh extended battery and neither is too impressive. Other problems: ridiculously slippery case, cheap-sounding voice quality and no way to reset without taking the battery cover off (W T F??? Does anyone at Palm even USE these phones???) And no cradle for a $650 phone??? Wow. I bought the Seidio battery cover that has a hole to allow easy resets. It's made of a cheap plastic that's not quite as slippery as the OEM case. I also bought the desktop cradle kit, cigarette lighter charger, audio adapter, Inno battery charger and some pen-styli from Seidio to make up for Palm's deficiencies. I then ordered the (hideous!) Treo side case with internal pocket and the (gorgeous!) Treo hard case. Too bad that stupid external antenna juts out of the hard case, spoiling the hard case's appearance... The screen is very nice, though - makes it difficult for me to look at the low res i500 screen.

Don't forget to add the "mediocre battery life even with a 2400 mAh Seidio battery and "Nearly useless Bluetooth" to that list.

I hope the battery problems I'm seeing are fixable in future revisions or a ROM update. I recently bought a Sony Ericsson Bluetooth headset, but since I gave up on using the Treo 700p as a phone I haven't actually used it with the Treo. I am using Bluetooth to HotSync and it works fine. PdaNet keeps giving me error messages when I try to use the Treo as a modem over Bluetooth. Very annoying. I also bought a copy of USB Modem and will see if it works over Bluetooth.

P.S. Are the six *'s in "or gets bought out by ******" a hint that Palm has a suitor with six characters in their name? ;-)

Hmmmm....which tech company has six letters in their name and might want to cozy up with Palm?

Garmin? Nortel? Danger? Fossil? Google? Vonage? Amazon?
The possibilities boggle the mind!

;-O

Now where did Neo go when he sought answers to his questions?

;-O

Sorry, but I can't say who I've heard might be buying Palm. Stay tuned! The you-know-what is gonna start hitting the fan later this month. A New Palm will soon be arising. Like the Pheonix from the Sun.

TVoR

RE: The Q is biting
hkklife @ 9/11/2006 10:36:10 PM # Q
Best features of the Treo 700P:

-Internet, anywhere (note that this COULD be achieved by BT tethering to a small, sleek, high quality cell phone but Palm has completely abandoned support for DUN on CDMA handsets)

-EVDO DUN via USB (BT DUN to my laptop is very flaky)

-Bright 320*320 screen

-Removable battery

-Charge LED, vibrating alert

-Nifty ringer on/off slider on top of case

-Nicely backlit keyboard. Best thumboard I've ever used.

-Better build quality than my TX or any recent Palm handheld save the LD.


Worst features of the Treo 700P:

-Absolutely miserable telephone reception. It "boing boinks" in my pocket all of the time...where my RAZR V3c and V710 NEVER, EVER lost reception.

-Bad voice quality. Voices often sound very digitized/vocoded.

-Small S***** Square Screen. Movies are nigh unwatchable at 320*320 letterboxed. My personal photo album is not nearly as useful to show to colleagues, friends & family now that it's been downsized from T3/T5/TX dimensions.

-No standard size headphone jack

-LAG, LAG, LAG!

-Pitiful battery life, even with a Seidio 2400 mAh battery. I can barely make it though a 12-14 hour day and that's with intermittent charging when in the car and just an hour or two of talk time, max.

-Feeble Bluetooth. Disconnects/dropped calls even when used with a Palm BT headset

-Weak speakerphone & ear speaker volume


By far the worst of all of these flaws are the lag and the poor phone reception/voice quality. Presumably the lag is patchable (database bug? NVFS issue?) but Palm cannot do anything about the voice quality & reception. If the 700P's reception is THIS bad with a huge ungainly external antenna then imagine how bad it'd be in a Treo 750 forfactor!

If I lean back in my chair my reception suffers. When I eat lunch at a local restaurant the phone boing boinks in and out of service when it's in my pocket...so it has to rest on the tabletop next to me. If a ROM update doesn't come soon I may have to use the 700P as a glorified wireless PDA and carry ANOTHER RAZR as my main voice phone...

Pilot 1000-->Pilot 5000-->PalmPilot Pro-->IIIe-->Vx-->m505-->T|T-->T|T2-->T|C-->T|T3-->T|T5-->TX-->Treo 700P

RE: The Q is biting
freakout @ 9/12/2006 5:17:33 AM # Q
^^ One hopes that the 750v and the Nitro are going to be the first beneficiaries of Palm's new telephony R&D centre. Although since it's European it'll be us GSM users reaping the rewards. Suffer in your jocks, CDMA suckers! :P

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650
RE: The Q is stabbing Treo
The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/16/2006 2:14:46 PM # Q
Best features of the Treo 700P:

-Internet, anywhere (note that this COULD be achieved by BT tethering to a small, sleek, high quality cell phone but Palm has completely abandoned support for DUN on CDMA handsets)

-EVDO DUN via USB (BT DUN to my laptop is very flaky)

-Bright 320*320 screen

-Removable battery

-Charge LED, vibrating alert

-Nifty ringer on/off slider on top of case

-Nicely backlit keyboard. Best thumboard I've ever used.

-Better build quality than my TX or any recent Palm handheld save the LD.


Worst features of the Treo 700P:

-Absolutely miserable telephone reception. It "boing boinks" in my pocket all of the time...where my RAZR V3c and V710 NEVER, EVER lost reception.

-Bad voice quality. Voices often sound very digitized/vocoded.

-Small S***** Square Screen. Movies are nigh unwatchable at 320*320 letterboxed. My personal photo album is not nearly as useful to show to colleagues, friends & family now that it's been downsized from T3/T5/TX dimensions.

-No standard size headphone jack

-LAG, LAG, LAG!

-Pitiful battery life, even with a Seidio 2400 mAh battery. I can barely make it though a 12-14 hour day and that's with intermittent charging when in the car and just an hour or two of talk time, max.

-Feeble Bluetooth. Disconnects/dropped calls even when used with a Palm BT headset

-Weak speakerphone & ear speaker volume


By far the worst of all of these flaws are the lag and the poor phone reception/voice quality. Presumably the lag is patchable (database bug? NVFS issue?) but Palm cannot do anything about the voice quality & reception. If the 700P's reception is THIS bad with a huge ungainly external antenna then imagine how bad it'd be in a Treo 750 forfactor!

If I lean back in my chair my reception suffers. When I eat lunch at a local restaurant the phone boing boinks in and out of service when it's in my pocket...so it has to rest on the tabletop next to me. If a ROM update doesn't come soon I may have to use the 700P as a glorified wireless PDA and carry ANOTHER RAZR as my main voice phone...


Excellent summary of the Treo 700p, hkklife. Someone should email it to Ed Colligan. If he thinks the market will keep buying Treos with so many problems at current prices Colligan must be on crack. Mark my words: the Treo is in for MASSIVE erosion in sales over the next two quarters. The current quarter is an absolute disaster (Palm "borrowed" sales last quarter and now have to "pay back"). Palm simply is unwilling/unable to compete with other cellphone manufacturers. Consumers aren't blind - if the emperor has no clothes they'll see it and will shop elsewhere. And once traditional Palm buyers leave, THEY WON'T BE COMING BACK.


As I've said before, you're MUCH better off with a tiny high quality Samsung/Nokia/Sony Ericsson Bluetooth phone and a European (Bluetooth-capable) CLIE TH55 than anything Palm can come up with.

TVoR

RE: The Q is biting
freakout @ 9/16/2006 9:49:38 PM # Q
You can now get a Treo 650 on Cingular for $50. That's pretty damn good for a device that still puts the Q to shame. Apart from the lack of internal RAM and EVDO it's every bit as good as the 700p.

The 700-series is definitely too expensive, but at that price the 650 is a bargain. And still the only choice for us GSM PalmOS users...

Tim
I apologise for any and all emoticons that appear in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.
Treo 270 ---> Treo 650

Reply to this comment

An interesting highlight from the report

AdamaDBrown @ 9/6/2006 5:52:07 PM # Q
The revenue shortfall was primarily due to lower Treo(TM) volumes in carrier retail channels.

In other words, carriers aren't buying as many Treos.

two major product launches, one that improves our pricing position and both which extend our carrier relationships to global markets,

Everyone thinks that they're referring to the so-called "Lowrider" when they talk about pricing position, but could they be talking about the Lennon/T750? Vodafone is pre-ordering it for under $250, which is insanely low. Palm could be providing it at a more heavily subsidized price than usual, figuring that it can't compete against the better-specced Windows phones like the Wizard, so they sell it for a mint and let the carrier recoup their costs on data plans. It could be a smart move--grab some marketshare, use the subsidy to remain profitable, but also don't undermine your higher-end models, since you can still put a high list price on the Lennon.



RE: An interesting highlight from the report
Surur @ 9/6/2006 6:12:22 PM # Q

Come now Adama. Which is more likely: A high end WM Treo and a cheap POS Treo, or the other way around?

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
AdamaDBrown @ 9/6/2006 6:15:16 PM # Q
Which is more likely: a high-end Windows Treo with a 312 MHz processor, 65 MB of available storage, and no WiFi, or a heavily-discounted mid-range Treo with those same specs?

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
Surur @ 9/6/2006 6:18:15 PM # Q

Dont forget the HSDPA. Also dont forget it has to balance. If the WM device is the cheap one, what should the specs of the high-end POS Treo be? Faster processor, more storage, WIFI? These seem unlikely.

At least the WM Treo has infra-red ;)

Surur

They said I only argued for the sake of arguing, but after an hour I convinced them they were wrong...
Hey!! I made associate writer at PDA247. Come see my nattering over there!!
www.clieuk.co.uk/wm.shtml

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
AdamaDBrown @ 9/6/2006 6:51:26 PM # Q
At least the WM Treo has infra-red ;)

:P

I'd more think that they're trying to buy their way into the European market. Windows is the order of the day over there, and the Palm brand has never been as strong as it is over here. They might undercut the other devices both to compensate for slightly weak specs and to try and build a following in the smartphone capital of Earth.

On that subject, who wants to bet that the Lennon will be more like $400-500 when it comes to these shores?

And somebody remind me--have we seen evidence of a GSM Palm OS Treo on any carrier other than Cingular? Might they not bother with the Nitro in Europe?

If I were Palm, I'd be tempted to use Palm OS as my high card. The upgraders and Palm loyalists choose Palm over a lot of other options, so there might be a natural inclination to see them as an exploitable market, willing to pay a premium for Palm OS even if the specs aren't grand, as opposed to the more competitive Windows world where there's ten thousand other options, and you HAVE to be competitive on price.

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
Foo Fighter @ 9/6/2006 8:33:05 PM # Q
>> "If I were Palm, I'd be tempted to use Palm OS as my high card. The upgraders and Palm loyalists choose Palm over a lot of other options, so there might be a natural inclination to see them as an exploitable market, willing to pay a premium for Palm OS even if the specs aren't grand, as opposed to the more competitive Windows world where there's ten thousand other options, and you HAVE to be competitive on price."

Right idea, wrong OS. This formula works beautifully for Apple because they have the advantage of actually having a platform that truly is richer, more innovative, and by all accounts superior to Windows. Unfortunately Palm can't play that card because they are hobbled by an OS that is painfully obsolete and inferior in capabilities to its Microsoft brethren. With a superior OS Palm would be standing from a position of strength.

Unfortunately they're sitting on a Ford Model T OS whose stature is diminishing fast in the market, and is now perceived as the BetaMax OS. For Palm to even attempt to market Garnet as a "luxury" OS would be a losing battle, just as it would for Apple to still be peddling OS 9 on current Macs.

-------------------------------
PocketFactory, www.pocketfactory.com
Elitist Snob, www.elitistsnob.com

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
AdamaDBrown @ 9/6/2006 11:55:38 PM # Q
That's why I said I'd be tempted, not that I'd do it. Though it's anybody's guess as to how in touch Palm is with the reality of Garnet on the ground.

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
Nycran @ 9/7/2006 9:43:12 AM # Q
Making an absurd comment like this: "they [Apple] have the advantage of actually having a platform that truly is richer, more innovative, and by all accounts superior to Windows" makes your opinion worthless - OSX is not "by all accounts" superior. Apple have a good marketing department, I'll give them that.

RE: An interesting highlight from the report
grg @ 9/7/2006 7:31:11 PM # Q
> Making an absurd comment like this: "they [Apple] have the advantage of actually having a platform that truly is richer, more innovative, and by all accounts superior to Windows" makes your opinion worthless - OSX is not "by all accounts" superior. Apple have a good marketing department, I'll give them that.

OSX is not the best thing since sliced bread to many people that have used state of the art OS in the past. For poor Windoze, OS Classic, etc users though, it is. The real problem is that Palm is trying to push a rather lame/unfocused/unintuitive OS (Window$ Mobile) with their devices instead of innovate. I had warned in the past about the consequences of sleeping with the enemy. Palm shot themselves in the foot.

Reply to this comment

Those who live by the sword (carriers) DIE by the sword...

The_Voice_of_Reason @ 9/6/2006 10:31:30 PM # Q
As I posted earlier this year, the last two quarters of this year will show the rapid implosion of the Treo franchaise. Gambling Palm's future on a roadmap littered with smartphones made sense financially in 2003, but only if Palm was able to deliver reasonably up-to-date devices to compete with the major handset manufacturers. Consumers aren't COMPLETE idiots: eventually they'll figure out that the emperor has no clothes. Trying to sell underspecced, underpowered, overpriced, oversized, unreliable devices while companies like Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Samsung, HTC, etc have awakened and started to train their sights on the Treo marketplace is a recipe for disaster. Even people who LOVE PalmOS eventually realize that there are simply too many compromises demanded of users who try to remain in the PalmOS world. Palm needed to put out 2 or 3 high quality cellphones in 2005-06 in order to have a chance. They have already surrendered (without a fight) in the "Features War" and unfortunately B.S. spin like "Zen of Palm" doesn't sell many phones to the kind of customers Palm needed to attract.

So this is how it's all going to play out:

- Panic is already setting in and the smell of death is upon Palm.
- Palm's attempts to regain control of PalmOS are about to become academic. Even if Palm was the ONLY PalmOS game in town, as long as the phones represent poor value they won't sell.
- Carriers sell what sells and dump what doesn't. Pretty, light, small, inexpensive phones sell, while ugly, heavy, large, expensive ones don't. Treos sales will continue to spiral downwards, faster and faster with the introduction of every new phone from the competition.
- Profits for Palm drop sharply, prompting a desperate attempt to sell the company before it reaches penny stock level.
- Palm's new masters (the carriers) could easily break the company within a quarter by refusing to make commitments for significant quantities of Treos.
- After abandoning traditional PDA users, Palm's lack of any interesting designs worthy of upgrading to will mean that people who like regular PDAs will continue to nurse their 2 or 3 year old T3, TH55, etc until they break and then either turn to eBay or switch to semi-smartphones like the Nokia E61 rather than moving to new Treos.

So what assets does Palm have?

1) The Treo name + design. Unfortunately this is already outdated and consumers value value over history. Furthermore, Palm has shown it's unable to compete with the traditional handset manufacturers in terms of style and frequency of new phone releases. In 2006 Palm became "yesterday's news".

2) The Palm name. Again, while nothing to be sneezed at, "Palm" on a device will not overcome a high price or weak feature set.

3) The traditional PDA market. The competition foolishly abandoned tablet PDA, but Palm has failed to take advantage of this lack of competition. A wise company would have introduced a TH55-sized tablet device sporting great screen, cellphone radio, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, VoIP application, browser, photo management software, USB mass storage device capability, bulletproof "push" email, MP3 software, SMS software, simple DVD conversion software, etc and cashed in on an untapped market for high quality, small, uber-connected devices that have a screen that can be used comfortably by everyone.


This quarter the competition has finally call Palm's Treo bluff. It's gonna get ugly. Real ugly.

TVoR

RE: Those who live by the sword (carriers) DIE by the sword...
SeldomVisitor @ 9/7/2006 8:20:03 AM # Q
> ...2)...PDA...

Perhaps PALM's "third business" will be their saviour.

Or should that be said as:

== "Perhaps PALM's "third business" MUST be their saviour."

?

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Apple will be the one to stick the knife in

zoetrope @ 9/7/2006 3:05:54 AM # Q
I agree with everything TVoR said above and will add one more nail in Palm's coffin.

Apple.

Apple is six months away, at the most, from releasing a cell phone. If Apple's cell phone does more than just play music and make calls, it's all over for Palm. Apple's brand is known for the same qualities that Palm's is (actuall was) known for, such as reliable, intuitive, attractive, hardware and software design and engineering. I suspect Apple's cell phone will be a GSM phone (Jobs loves Cingular), but they could also release a CDMA phone. If Apple's phone offers even the most basic PIM functionality (which I suspect it will) it's all over for Palm.

You can argue with this, but you will be wrong and your arguments are futile.

And just think, the founders of Palm used to work for Apple. Ahhh, the irony

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What will Palm do with cash?

craigdts @ 9/7/2006 8:27:22 AM # Q
Some analyst want them to buy back shares . . .

This is not the first time a buyback has been suggested by analysts. Palm in the past said they would rather reinvest in the company.

Palm is clearly developing their own OS now (from 10K and recent analyst report). Remember from the 10K - October is when Palm can make acquisitions and still realize existing tax benefits.

I expect palm not to make a share buyback, but to make an acquisition in October - either PSRC (minus CMS) in some form or its intellectual property, possibly Wind River, or they make a move to get a subscriber based business. Or even a mobiTV?

I'm not altogether convinced a new OS is the way to go. Palm's best strategy may be to simply pump out WM devices and streamline itself.

This may all be academic though, becuase if offers come in Palm will be forced to sell the company.

RE: What will Palm do with cash?
SeldomVisitor @ 9/7/2006 9:04:18 AM # Q
> ...Palm is clearly developing their own OS now...

PALM may simply be modifying an OS (like device drivers, etc), not writing a new one.

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Choice?

e_tellurian @ 9/7/2006 8:52:10 PM # Q
Some were forced to die by the sword as a consequence of self defence. Some survived, true with many wounds, no issues.

Many of the choices we have are a consequence of men and women who risked their lives to face the sword of another.

To offer choices requires an open mind with fewer swords. True those that waved the sword at their people are no longer in power. To take that sword away requires the lives of many family and friends.

To build more choices will require peace. Stigmatizing people is not what leaders do well.

Peace,

E-T



e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

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A place to enhance our work.

e_tellurian @ 9/7/2006 9:26:33 PM # Q
The customer/people are why we build.

When we build we must do so without harming the purpose for building.

Perhaps, a place where developers can go and work with each other to try to break each others stuff ... with some agreements. Think of this as a contact sport, sportsmanship (ship again) is requires to continue the choice with the best people. This place would be funded by the companies that choose to participate.

This would be like a LAB except all the competing companies send representatives to work here while beta testing before going to the people. These places could be linked to other similar places all over the world with a separate VPN for security of early material.

Any thoughts,

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

RE: A place to enhance our work.
e_tellurian @ 9/11/2006 10:01:52 PM # Q
Defending ones thoughts is challenging when people are not able to engage. Many I know of have risked their lives for freedom.

It is easy and safe to ridicule people when they can not respond. If some are going to ridicule we-com thoughts please allow e-t access to defend we-com thoughts in the off topic forum or delete all content.

Thank you,

E-T

e-tellurian

Completing the e-com circle with a people driven we-com solution
WiFi & BT? No strings attached
we_tellurian@canada.com

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