Comments on: AT&T's Palm Pre vs iPhone Comparison Chart
With the Palm Pre widely expected to be available sometime in May or June, the end of the first half of 2009 is shaping up to be a turbulent time for the smartphone market. In fact, reading between the lines of this leaked training slide could lead to the assumption that the Pre's launch is imminent and Palm may have a one or two month window of opportunity ahead of Apple's iPhone hardware refresh or official OS 3.0 availability.
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RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
pre - zero app downloads
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
pre - zero app downloads
1) That's about average, for a phone that isn't even out yet.
2) When the pre is released, it will be released with an emulator for Palm OS apps. That emulator basically balances out the Apple App Store, in terms of number of applications.
3) On top of those apps, the Pre will have third party developer support right out of the gate.
4) Even failing all that, the WebOS SDK allows 3rd party developers to do anything 99% of the iPhone apps do now, plus some things the iPhone can't do (e.g., the Synergy functions).
So, the only real advantage the iPhone has, in terms of apps, is that the Pre hasn't been released yet. By the end of June, that will be remedied.
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
For comparison sake, what market share does Apple have to achieve to be successful vs. Microsoft?
Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
True.
It might be an interesting exercise to determine the number of Pres that need to be sold to reach that money-making point.
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
It's almost like they are putting all of their eggs into the Pre basket and intending to ride that single model for a *very* long time. Think of how the Treo 650 arrived in '04 to decent reviews and good sales. But then Palm utterly failed to deliver a proper follow-up device until 18 months later. The 700p, which should have been released at least 6 months sooner and been absolutely rock-solid and/or had a number of improvements over the 650, ultimately had very little to offer other than 3G and 2x the RAM.
I could see Palm falling into the same trap nowadays but with even worse consequences due to the one-trick pony nature of the company's product line and the relentless competition.
Apple could do nothing more in June than release a mildly refreshed iPhone 3G with a 32GB version and OS 3.0 pre-installed on the exact same hardware. They'd still keep selling 'em like hotcakes. Palm isn't doing themselves any favors with the community overseas by keeping mum about eventual plans for a GSM Pre.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
hkklife wrote:
It's almost like they are putting all of their eggs into the Pre basket and intending to ride that single model for a *very* long time.
Certainly true that this will make or break them, but to their credit they are working on multiple income streams with the Pre. Like so much of Palm's irony-filled past, it could be their strength or failure depending on how the peripheral "up-sells" are executed, and all of that potential revenue boils down to how many units they can get out the door.
I recall the Q3 call and other Colligan comments have re-iterated the intention to get webOS on multiple devices, with a particular device's complexity scaled up or down to the need of the buyer. I also seem to recall a Laptop Mag article that was enthusiastic about it being a potential game-changer in the "netbook" market.
Execution of the Application Store is going to be key too. Apple's obviously set the standard (in terms of ease of use of the store). I've been on the Android store over the last weeks and it still needs some work. Even with a "captured" user base, the ease of use, application search and presentation is key.
In addition to SV's posed question, (How many Pre units do they need to sell to float until they can get other products off the ground?), other questions come to mind: How much of their revenue model relies on subscription costs anticipated with Synergy? How much of their model depends on revenue from the App Store and how many of those first users need to "buy in"? How will the App Store be integrated with other potential products? How much will the dang thing cost?
I would love to see a new Palm "ecosystem" with other branded hardware or licensing use of webOS, but two things haunt that vision- the memory of all the fanfare and failure of Cobalt and the overly long move to the next generation of hardware after the roll-out of the 680.
ATT is giving Palm some serious credibilty right now in being so proactive to prepare their staff for selling past what we know of the Pre. Also funny how they validate the battery, keyboard and muti-tasking advantages through omission of addressing same. It would seem to imply they are not anticipating a GSM Pre nor an Apple iPhone/Touch hardware refresh that's been widely rumored to go with the 3.0 software roll-out. Or perhaps they won't have an exclusive on that?
End of Contract with Sprint- to become a "Pre-vert" or go Android?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
Bingo! Exactly what I was trying to get it earlier.
I see these obviously hastily-done and rather "infromal" training/talking points from AT&T sort of a temporary solution towards addressing concerns from customers right NOW. Sort of a safeguard if the current iPhone 3G "AS IS" would face against the Pre if it became available tomorrow/soon.
No mention of the improvements on Apple's side from OS 3.0, nor of an immediate hardware refresh, so I'd expect AT&T to be a bit nervous (aside from having iTunes + many apps +2x the storage) with having a year-old iPhone 3G going up against the Pre's 3 big attractions of a keyboard, removable battery & multitasking.
I really forsee the Pre (just this one model) lifecycle going basically exactly like the Centro did:
-Launch model on Sprint (what was unveiled at CES) this June.
-Foreign market GSM version in early 2010 (what was seen at MWC in Barcelona)
-Verizon and/or another domestic carrier offering their version of the original 8GB Pre (with maybe a new color and slightly newer OS ala Verzon's Centro in '08) sometime in the first half of 2010
-Slightly improved/refreshed model appearing on Sprint in summer 2010 (Probably a 16GB Pre)
All the while, Palm will be increasingly trying to distance themselves from the hardware and push the heck out of services & the app store. In other words, I am sure it'll work well and be nice and user-friendly but we'd better prepare ourselves to get nickel & dimed to death to expand the device's functionality.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
No netbooks in Palm's future
Instead, Palm should look to a larger MID-style device (Nokia N-series sizes or larger) or even some kind of tablet. The WebOS UI & card metaphor just BEGS for larger (at least 7"), higher-resolution (at least 800x480) screen. IMHO, WebOS as we've seen it so far would be far better suited for a modern-day take on the Newton than it is on a smartphone with a tiny 3.1" 320x480 LCD.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
It would seem to imply they are not anticipating a GSM Pre nor an Apple iPhone/Touch hardware refresh that's been widely rumored to go with the 3.0 software roll-out. Or perhaps they won't have an exclusive on that?
I think the most you can read into that is that they won't have an exclusive deal. (I'm not sure about that much, even.) Everything that's been reported about the iPhone recently, everywhere one could possibly look, seems to scream "A new phone is coming!". I think the main question is goingto be, "How much of a refresh is it going to be?" I wouldn't be surprised, at this point, if it was a significant upgrade, but at the same time, I don't expect the new iPhone to take on the features the Pre brings to the table (e.g., Apple has a very different philosophy about third-party development than Palm does, and Apple has shown absolutely no interest in putting a physical keyboard on any device).
I really think part of the difference will be which markets the devices try to attact. A lot of the iPhone apps appeal to a younger demographic that is less corporate-minded. (I'm trying to be careful how I say that. I don't mean that professionals don't own and use iPhones. I'm saying that the apps that I've seen and the features that seem to be pushed by Apple appeal more to personal time, or, at most, small businesses, rather than corporate business.) From what's been said by Palm thus far, they seem to be pushing the case that their phone is more flexible. It's not a "business" phone like the Blackberries are perceived as being, and not a "fun and games" phone, like the iPhone is perceived as being.
Whether Palm can pull that off is another story. I don't think the stories of Howard Stern and Angelina Jolie being given the Pre help that argument. I would rather see the Pre demoed by a larger cross-section of humanity -- or at least given to tech journalists to play with, rather than celebrities who can only lend their names to a promotional effort. (I mean, I can see snubbing Bonnie Cha, but at least let David Pogue have a crack at it...)
As has been said by others, this isn't really a winner-takes-all situation. There are a lot of people who don't have smartphones yet. Palm may have an uphill battle to gain market share, but it doesn't necessarily have to come by peeling away iPhone users.
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
hkklife wrote:
As far as the netbook market, it is absolutely awash with lots of competitors of all shapes and sizes. Palm bombed out horribly with the Fooleo and needs to stay as far away from that category as possible.I agree with your first point, but depart perspective on the second. The netbook market may be saturated with lots of "solutions", but it's one of the fastest growing markets for new hardware (arguments aside about the portion of market share cannibalizing laptop and desktop sales).
To give Palm credit, their decision to kill the Foleo was exceptionally (for them) far-sighted. The model of consumer cost and execution would have been creamed by what's out there now. They would be already dead on despite those fat margins with nobody buying an over priced and underpowered solution. Whatever justification of battery life and instant-on would have been lost by offset of tethering to the 'phone.
However, if webOS scales as well as some developers are saying, it would be a great opportunity to port it to the device types you mention, and (IMHO) more traditional ultra-portable net-based hardware. Dependent on scalability, there would be no cost, instant license revenue, more mass steered towards Synergy subscriptions and the app store, and goodwill and brand recognition (re)creation. It could be the momentum they need to re-spark the Tao (if not Zen) of Palm.
I don't think they need to steal much market from Apple to stay afloat at the unit volumes I've seen mentioned, perhaps they are counting on none with the anticipated growth of the smart-phone market that keeps getting touted despite the economy. But my questions able aren't rhetorical, I'd like to see some numbers soon- if not from Palm, from analysts (SV- have any info/insight?). The additional questions raised on effect of the initial US carrier on adoption and time frames for GSM and the extra-US market are going to be critical to address too.
End of Contract with Sprint- to become a "Pre-vert" or go Android?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
End of Contract with Sprint- to become a "Pre-vert" or go Android?
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
Jeff Hawkins and I still believe that the market category defined by Foleo has enormous potential. When we do Foleo II it will be based on our new platform, and we think it will deliver on the promise of this new category. We're not going to speculate now on timing for a next Foleo, we just know we need to get our core platform and smartphones done first.
For all their popularity, netbooks right now aren't very innovative devices. They're just small, cheap notebooks running OS's that were meant to be employed on bigger, more powerful hardware. I love my Eee, but it could be improved greatly if it ran an OS that was designed with mobility in mind.
webOS already ticks software boxes that Foleo didn't (i.e. it has much better multimedia support) and seems like it'd be a perfect fit for the form factor. Foleo II could wind up being the best netbook yet.
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
bhart, I was being sarcastic on this point.
>2) When the pre is released, it will be released with an emulator for Palm
>OS apps. That emulator basically balances out the Apple App Store, in
>terms of number of applications.
Don't know about that, just like there's alot of filler and crap for the iphone, there certainly is for Palm OS. Still on average, Apple has an advantage of 30,000+ apps in the app store.
Running emulated legacy apps where you lose half the screen balances nothing out. If running Palm legacy apps is so great, why is palm releasing the Pre?
>3) On top of those apps, the Pre will have third party developer support
>right out of the gate.
If and only if it sells phenomenally well over the next three-six months.
More money appears to be made by selling apps. to the 37 million iphone users.
BTW, where's the Pre's app store? No mention of that (yet).
>4) Even failing all that, the WebOS SDK allows 3rd party developers to
>do anything 99% of the iPhone apps do now, plus some things the
>iPhone can't do (e.g., the Synergy functions).
There are still some advantages iphone apps have - performance of a compiled app - versus a web app.
To me, the iphone still has several tangible advantages (app distribution, app deployment, compiled applications, and quantity of available applications).
>So, the only real advantage the iPhone has, in terms of apps, is that the
>Pre hasn't been released yet. By the end of June, that will be remedied.
I think it'll be out in May - late June is too late...
RE: The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
I just installed Ubuntu 9.04 on my Asus EeePC and it rocks. The small screen makes viewing a calendar difficult, but it blows away my T|C. Palm drove me away by moving to phones only (I don't want one), and they left the market wide open. Now I can listen to music, watch videos, play games, keep track of contacts, email, surf the web and multitask. Palm could have been there years ago...
Missing Points
Apple Store and Apple Care vs. phone store grade folks, who are too busy memorizing rap lyrics:)! = Can't touch this!
Apple Wins hands down!
Add to that millions of iPhone users who have been using it for some time and can help the new users! Many of those iPhone users are the folks who gave up on Palm!
Old Palm OS working ala "Classic Mode" on Apple?
Old Palm OS SUCKS! And now if Palm "Classic Mode" works, it'll SUCK on on a newer, faster hardware!
If Pre came out at the same time as iPhone, MAYBE it could have had a chance, but even then - iPhone has APPLE behind it, with Mac OS X, and all that comes with it.
Palm has Bono behind it, sort off, cause he now "found what he's looking for":) - Blackberry!!!!!!!!!!
So, if Palm's own INVESTOR is parading under Blackberry Banner, what does say?
And, we don't even know yet what the Next iPhone is going to have in it in terms of hardware! Add New iPhone OS 3.0 etc.
Comparing Palm as a company to Apple when Apple was on its deathbed doesn't work too well for me. Why? Cause Apple had more than 1 Product, while Palm is Pre only, plus a few discontinued PDA's and Treos right?
SUPPORT is a huge part of it!
People need a place to go to, or phone # to call when things don't work!
Apple is UNTOUCHABLE in that area, while most Cell Stores are sucky! ATT doesn't have to worry, cause Apple Stores + Mac Community at large are a DREAM TEAM situation! NOBODY can touch that!!!
Then iPhone will gain in the Biz World, and will extend its lead...
I am glad there will be Pre and Android OS to keep iPhone on its toes, but I don't see them beating iPhone...
------ My Signature --------------
Treo 700P = lame, needs:
Upgrade Patch, Maintenance Release, whatever ASAP!!!
Manual Volume Control on Camcorder Recordings, which suck in low light!
White Screen, Lag, Delays when switching applications! - SUCKS!!!
Verizon, DUN (Dialup Networking), Tethering = highly unstable with my Powerbook 17, OS 10.4.9, all latest Updates...
Palm Desktop 4.2.2 (Mac) = End Of Life = Death Row! Needs to be REBUILD, with a Support for Services, AppleScript, .Mac
Make Palm OS, or whatever OS as ROCK SOLID as Mac OS!!!!
Hope iPhone will ROCK too, then Farwell Palm!!!?!? Unless Palm outApples Apple with something even more breathtaking than iPhone, which is tied to Rising Apple Empire!? I doubt that...
Missing Points P.S.
Re: My Signature - I need to Update it
------ My Signature --------------
Treo 700P = lame, needs:
Upgrade Patch, Maintenance Release, whatever ASAP!!!
IT'S MY 4TH TREO 700P - THANK GOD FOR MY $6 INSURANCE with VERIZON!!!! NOW I AM RUNNING ALL THE LATEST MAINTENANCE UPDATER ETC... AND IT STILL SUCKS! RESETS CONTINUE!!!!
I GUESS THEY'LL CONTINUE UNDER PRE ''CLASSIC MODE":)!?
Manual Volume Control on Camcorder Recordings, which suck in low light!
White Screen, Lag, Delays when switching applications! - SUCKS!!!
Verizon, DUN (Dialup Networking), Tethering = highly unstable with my Powerbook 17, OS 10.4.9, all latest Updates...
I GAVE UP ON THAT OVER 1 YEAR AGO!!! NOW I AM ON MAC OS 10.4.11
THE NEXT SECTION, WHICH I'VE PUT IN QUOTES -- A JOKE!!! IT WON'T HAPPEN!!!!
"Palm Desktop 4.2.2 (Mac) = End Of Life = Death Row! Needs to be REBUILD, with a Support for Services, AppleScript, .Mac
Make Palm OS, or whatever OS as ROCK SOLID as Mac OS!!!!
Hope iPhone will ROCK too, then Farwell Palm!!!?!? Unless Palm outApples Apple with something even more breathtaking than iPhone, which is tied to Rising Apple Empire!? I doubt that... "
R.I.P. TREO 700P, when I DUMP IT for iPhone in JUNE 2009... And I used to be PALM ZELOT!!!! THEY SUCK, THEY LOST ME! TO ME WORD PALM = CRASH AND FREEZE!!!!
This is interesting
Also, these potshots could be anecdotal evidence alongside the lack of an AT&T GSM Treo Pro as a hint that no plans for an AT&T-endorsed version of the GSM Pre are on the horizon.
Very interesting. I personally believe that CDMA phones are horrendous, with the only exception being phones that contain a million radios for international travel, such as the BB Storm, which is a quad-band GSM phone in addition to its standard CDMA radio.
Essentially, this means that Palm is hinging its entire strategy on Sprint. How Palm executes on the Pre may be irrelevant if people are simply unwilling to switch to Sprint, yet that's the only carrier available. It may be possible that there is a Verizon launch six months after the initial release, but by then, this phone will be old news. This might be a new (to Verizon) smartphone in January 2010 with 8 GB internal storage and no expandability.
And knowing Palm's track record of under-delivering on features and over-delivering on price, a $299, 8 GB Pre on Sprint may be up against a $299, 32 GB iPhone 3.0 on AT&T.
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: This is interesting
RE: This is interesting
Leaders never do this...
RE: Leaders never do this...
Pre's WebOS is based on Linux-based, while the iphone's OS is Mac OS (Unix based).
They're both running operating systems (originally) designed for desktop machines and both operating systems have been pared down and optimized to run well on mobile devices.
These comments help to provide some contrast to those offered by other developers, who feel that webOS isn't worth developing for. SkyHook Wireless recently reported that just 8% of LBS developers are interested in porting their applications to webOS.
too bad only phones from Palm...
I'm not going to switch from my iPhone, but I'd be tempted to buy a "Pre Touch" just to have as YAIBD (yet another internet browsing device)
Also Palm's missing a big financial boat...
Apple sold about 3 million iPod touches last quarter. Compared to 3.8 million iPhones shipped, that is pretty excellent.http://www.businessinsider.com/ipod-touch-is-apples-sleeper-hit-2009-4
RE: too bad only phones from Palm...
Not only would such a beast satisfy the old PDA die-hards, it'd also let Palm keep a foothold in the retail environment, and let them hit markets (Verizon users and non-US customers) won't see the Pre anytime soon (if ever). Most importantly, it'd also let developers and users play around with WebOS and get comfortable in that environment. There are a lot of Dmitry Grinberg type guys out there that cannot or do not want to sign up for a Sprint contract + service plan just to have a WebOS device to play with for development purposes.
But Palm can't be bothered to do anything so logical, can they? Especially after the OS 3.0 update arrives, the iPod Touch is going to be a force to be reckoned with. I'm not trading in my 755p, TX or iPod Classic 160gb for one anytime soon, but I've recommend the Touch to a lot of friends & family who just want something that plays music & can web browse on while on the couch or in bed.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
RE: too bad only phones from Palm...
Good point Kris, I'll never buy an iPhone or a Pre (no use for a cell phone) but because of the Touch I can develop for iPhone. 13 apps since January and about 3000 sold, not getting rich but a fun way to make a few extra bucks if you can put up with the crappy reviews from the "want it free" crowd.
I wouldn't have done any hardware or software for the Treo either if not for the Palm PDAs.
Gary
(Tech Center Labs on iTunes ;)
Tech Center Labs
RE: too bad only phones from Palm...
:-(
RE: too bad only phones from Palm...
Bringing out a similar but not identical non-phone "Touch" device (rip out the radio, toss in more memory, charge a nominal fee for OS updates and sell 'em at retail) is one area where I wish they HAD copied Apple.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->?
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The forgot a bullet point for 'Applications'
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10225016-37.html
Palm's got a fight on their hands!