Comments on: Bloomberg Grills Roger McNamee

iPhone 3GS.

Or was it a trick question?

Oh well Tim,

7 million people (this quarter) can't be wrong.

Since you brought up rotten tomatoes - nothing's more rotten than the palm pre's sales numbers - hahahahaha...

Oh, what a compelling argument. You've totally disproved my point, as usual. All hail the troll-bot, King of Logic!

yes, poor analogy. grasping at straws.

fallacious argument. McDonald's is #1 in the FAST FOOD segment. McDonald's does not compete in the GOURMET segment. get it?

iPhone competes with Palm in the SMARTPHONE segment. get it?

the market has spoken and popularity within a segment means something. get it?

please no more silly Aussie logic tonight.

fallacious argument. McDonald's is #1 in the FAST FOOD segment. McDonald's does not compete in the GOURMET segment. get it?

Yes. Why is McDonald's #1 in fast food, though? It's not the quality: IMO, there are better-tasting, better-value chains out there. Like Coke, McDonald's maintains their stranglehold on the top through an incredibly strong branding and a limitless marketing budget, with a big real-estate advantage. (Pepsi, for instance, consistently wins blind taste-tests against Coke yet simply cannot take down the big C juggernaut.)

Apple has a massively strong brand, a formidable retail presence and a highly successful marketing strategy. All of these factors virtually guarantee that Palm won't be besting them in sales anytime soon, even if the Pre was the greatest phone ever made.

All you can go on is what personally works for you. And a crappy virtual keyboard, an iTunes ball-and-chain, a hermetically sealed battery and Apple's draconian, ridiculous app & development policies mean I won't be picking up an iPhone anytime soon, nor will many others.

Also the fact that idiots like jca666us love it so much. Ew. What a turn off.

Kris:

Please don't mention Bayformers again. Just like Trek, I'm an "original series" purist. All hail G1 alone!

I love TOS. But no DS9 love?
Sometime PIC blogger
Treo 270 --> Treo 650 --> Treo 680 --> Centro
I apologise for any and all emoticons in my posts. You may shoot them on sight.

Tim, I disagree with the analogy for one large reason. The device that has the lead gets the most support. In this case, it's developer support, and contrary to all of the media crap about rejecting apps, some of the most undoubtedly high quality programs are available on the iDevice. If you choose the Pre, you get meager support from Palm, a weak software library thus far, and a company who, quite frankly, might die tomorrow.

Two years ago, when I jumped ship, I did so because I saw an awesome platform and a bright future backed by a company that has a recent history of hitting home runs. Palm went 0 for 3 in that count, as evidenced by Gekko clutching his rickety Centro.

Obviously Tim's criteria for choosing a device leave much to be desired.

That's pretty much all true except for the "meager support" part (palm have been pushing out webOS updates every month) and the "might die
tomorrow". Rubbish doomsaying, Bosco. They've got cash, a second
webOS phone coming and more carriers. They might not be destined for
Apple or RIM-style success - at least not yet - but they're looking pretty
healthy to me.

Based on Palm's history on *no support*, Palm's latest efforts can best be described as meager support (minor bug fixes).

Let's see if Palm is producing firmware updates for Pixie or (the current) Pre a year from now, or if they're capable of producing updates of the magnitude of the iphone OS 2.x or 3.x.

Palm may not be dead, but they're still in the ICU.

It's that Apple has such power to control the legal selection of apps at all. I would never, ever buy into a platform that was so unreasonably restricted as to censor a dictionary, or or a Twitter app, or apps that "duplicate functionality", or ban Google Voice out of some paranoiac fear of competition.

Well, considering their success, Apple has little reason to change.

Jailbreaking an iPhone would be the first thing I'd do if I got one... and even now, Apple are still doing their damndest to shut that down. It's a sick attitude.

Actually, even though I've jailbroken both of my iphones (and reversed the process), Apple has good reason to obliterate jailbreaking - as it allows people to download apps from the app store for free.

That's not a sick attitude - that's the right attitude.

Compare to Palm's attitude to the homebrewers, and their upcoming no-review app policies. I can get behind that.

That's Palm telling people what they want to hear, in an effort to shore up support for a platform that's going nowhere.

I find iTunes a horrible piece of software and avoid it like the plague - tethering my phone to it is a nightmare scenario. I don't like virtual keyboards. And as stated above, their attitude to locking down their devices and stomping on the hackers disgusts me.

Yes, I also hate turtlenecks...

At least you're being honest in your biases - maybe there's hope for you yet.

Tim Carroll wrote:
Jailbreaking an iPhone would be the first thing I'd do if I got one... and even now, Apple are still doing their damndest to shut that down. It's a sick attitude.

I'm completely with you on this one. I can not stand the Apple attitude. IMO, the iPhone is a fantastic piece of hardware running a pretty good OS and having one incredible amount of third-party support in their app store. Yes, there are flaws, but I'll sure give them credit. However, ...

jca666us wrote:
Well, considering their success, Apple has little reason to change.

Yep, and they won't. And they especially won't when individual after individual proves to them over and over again that Apple can exert that level of control and people will still flock to their products. I have no interest in being one of those people (sheep). I'll vote with my pocketbook and choose the highest level of freedom I can find that still functions well for my needs. Obviously that is not Apple.

Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?

nastebu wrote:
"Highest level of freedom" makes it all sound like a moral crusade. It's a cell phone.

Apple, Microsoft, Palm. There's no moral distinctions here. These are all big corporations who are interested mostly in generating profits. We're not electing a president, we're choosing a cell phone.

Don't buy Apple. Buy Palm. But lord, don't feel morally superior because you bought one product and not another.

"Moral superiority"?! Who said anything about that? Get a clue. This isn't about moral anything. I don't know what you're on, but maybe the dosage needs adjusting.

Go build your straw men somewhere else.

Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?

Yeah, I get it. You want a system that is the most open because that will spur the best hardware and the freedom to create the best software.

Palm decided to use an HTML-based programming environment. Yet Apple has 85,000 programs in it's App Store, more people developing for it than there are current Pre customers, and two billion downloads. So that doesn't seem to be working out for them.

Google decided to go the Microsoft route, allowing freedom of hardware and software, but instead making it open source so that licensees can tweak their own handsets. Yet Apple is the one who has sold almost 40 million iPhones alone (not including iPod Touch). It turns out that Android is being put on all the same hardware that Windows Mobile has been put on and, surprise, the sales numbers are not exactly breaking anybody's back.

In the mobile space, tight integration is king. Apple is second to none in that department in every aspect of it's platform. The software that has been locked out (Google Voice, tethering, 3G TV) does not interest me enough. I value that huge app selection and iTunes library that much. If it's not worth it to you, that's fine. But be warned, you'll probably be left on Asian forums finding unsupported software hacks to do things the device should be doing in the first place, much like Palm OS 4, or be waiting for Google to update their OS, only to have to wait for Motorola to fix it up and make it live as well.

Meanwhile, I'll take my TomTom voicing, Kindle ebook reading, Quickoffice writing, EA Sports playing iPhone and be on my merry way. As will millions else.

abosco wrote:
Yeah, I get it. You want a system that is the most open because that will spur the best hardware and the freedom to create the best software.

If that's what you think I mean, then no, I don't believe you do get it. Maybe the most open system will result in those things and maybe it won't. But even if it doesn't, it's worthwhile to try. There is value to me in trying to avoid artificial controls and in trying to create the potential for even more freedom.

....Yet Apple is the one who has sold almost 40 million iPhones alone (not including iPod Touch). It turns out that Android is being put on all the same hardware that Windows Mobile has been put on and, surprise, the sales numbers are not exactly breaking anybody's back.

These statements and the rest of what you wrote reinforce my belief that you don't get what I am saying. You keep bringing up the numbers, the sheer "volume" as the evidence that one company's way is superior to another's. If I were investing in stock, that would matter to me too. I'm not. On the desktop, I do not think Microsoft's products to be better just because they have the numbers. Neither do I think Apple's numbers mean anything when it comes to purchasing a smartphone. What matters to me is choosing a highly functional smartphone that meets my requirements (obviously different than yours based on the list you gave as examples of what you find valuable) and at the same time avoids me being just one other person who contributes to a reduction in freedom.

And by the way, if somehow Android ever passes Apple in marketshare, will that mean that it is the better choice? Seems to be the logical conclusion of your argument, but I don't think you are willing to agree with that statement.

Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?

>>>There is something to be said about the market leader.

Only that is has numbers, nothing more than that.

Maybe Apple will stay the market leader; maybe they won't.

If Apple releases no new innovations in the iPhone for the next three years except for a rehashed iPhone with an innovative case that comes in "4 amazing colors" then they would no longer be a market leader.

mikecane wrote:
However, I defend Apple because I think they have a master plan -- and I also think it's *inevitable* that iTunes Store *must* become a *platform*, with Apple releasing its monopolistic grip. Even Apple will come to that conclusion -- although I bet they already have. But they are not Microsoft and won't throw any shit at a wall, hoping it will stick. This is why we haven't seen a frikkin iTablet. I say let them enjoy their rightful profits for now as they line up everything for the day they can't escape.

I think it's safe to say that if being too closed starts costing Apple money, they'll open up. Right now being closed down and tightly wound is making them a pile of cash, so it's kind of crazy to expect them to suddenly change their story.

I don't know enough about programing to say, but isn't it possible that keeping the OS closed so far has helped Apple work out the bugs? The late distribution of the SDK seems smart in retrospect. They took a year to get the basic OS right, then they opened it to third party programers with enormous success.

Maybe that's the actual trend Apple is taking, what Cane calls the "master plan."

If that's true, then why did Apple get DRM off iTunes music? Doesn't that refute what you just said?

They're capable of opening things up IF there's more money to be made in doing so.

abosco wrote:
If that's true, then why did Apple get DRM off iTunes music? Doesn't that refute what you just said?

They're capable of opening things up IF there's more money to be made in doing so.

Yep, opening up "other people's" stuff. :-)

But you may well be right. Maybe money trumps control with Steve. But then again, I wouldn't be surprised to find out it's the other way around.

"...but they are the gatekeepers. They are guarding all the doors, they are holding all the keys, which means that sooner or later, someone is going to have to fight them."
(I love that movie.)

Hey Palm! Where's my PDA with Wifi and phone capabilities?

"Each year the prediction industry showers us with $200 billion in (mostly erroneous) information. The forecasting track records for all types of experts are universally poor, whether we consider scientifically oriented professionals, such as economists, demographers, meteorologists, and seismologists, or psychic and astrological forecasters whose names are household words. In fact, these experts whose advice we pay handsomely for routinely fail to predict the major events that shape our world, or even the major turning points--the transitions from status quo to something new--whether it be the economy, stock market, weather, or new technologies. Recent events that caught the forecasters by total surprise include the 1987 stock market crash and its subsequent rapid recovery to record heights; the entry of women into the workforce in massive numbers; the fall of communist Eastern Europe; the Gulf War; the decisive Republican victory in 1994 congressional elections; all recessions, including the crash of 1929 and recent, smaller blips in the financial markets; the use of lasers to transmit telephone messages (even though the phone company's researchers at Bell Labs invented it); and the floods in the Mississippi River valley in the summer of 1993 and those that plagued California during the winter of 1995. How could all our experts miss calling the fall of communist East Berlin? With all our massive investment in foreign intelligence and our aggressive news media, how did such a momentous event elude them? Why wasn't it predicted months ahead--or even the day before? No doubt you could name an expert or two who predicted some big, surprising event. But ... did they really? It is very hard to distinguish a long-shot direct hit from pure chance. The laws of probability dictate that if thousands of forecasters make thousands of predictions, someone at some time is bound to make a spectacular direct hit. Typically, these lucky few enjoy their fifteen minutes of fame before sinking back into the ranks of mediocrity as they revert to meting out egregiously wrong forecasts. A prime example is the stock market guru Elaine Garzarelli, who is said to have predicted the 1987 stock market crash--the worst since the Great Depression. At no time before or after this famous forecast has she ever made any similar long-shot forecasts that proved to be true. In fact, her long-term stock prediction track record is rather poor, judging from the performance of a mutual fund she ran for seven years. During this time, her fund increased 38 percent while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 62 percent. Her employer at the time finally shut down the fund in August 1994." - William A. Sherden – "The Fortune Sellers"

mikecane wrote:
But they are not Microsoft and won't throw any shit at a wall, hoping it will stick. This is why we haven't seen a frikkin iTablet. I say let them enjoy their rightful profits for now as they line up everything for the day they can't escape.

I'll give them that, they are very capable of keeping things under wraps and are not likely to release something that won't sell (anymore anyway). I think that a tablet is in the works and is closer that people think. I think it will most likely be ARM based and running the iPhoney OS . This I believe because of their acquisition of P.A. Semi (2007 I think?) who have loads of talent and plenty of experience with low power consumption chip designs (based on the PowerPC design) and lots of prior experience with ARM designs. I also believe that they seriously considered staying with the PowerPC chips, but ultimately the cheaper cost of the Intel chips is what made the decision for them.

DISCLAIMER: I have no relevant stock positions and I'm not an insider, but did a lot of reading on P.A. Semi back when they were an independent start-up and was confused by the Intel switch. It made no sense technically, but did make business sense considering Intel's probable price point. They could also move on it sooner than if they had waited for P.A Semi volume supplies.

mikecane wrote:
You know how everydamncompany imitates Apple. So when Apple goes all-open, all those other dominoes will follow too.

Not as many as you think.. While they have original ideas, a lot of their ideas have been better marketed/better implementations of existing ideas.

Great products... and GREAT stock (paid for my first triplex). Stay long until Jobs sh*ts the bed, which I hope is no time soon.

(and fyi, I was using Mac computers when they didn't even have hard drives... not to date myself or anything.)

MS

Gekko,
I spent my computer life on Microsoft stuff except for a Apple IIe a long time ago. December '08 I bought a Mac Mini and an iPod Touch to look into doing iPhone apps, I'm still totally amazed at the easy transition and the quality hardware and software!
No joke, the windows stuff sucks compared to OSX and Palm will never produce the quality of produces that come from Apple.

Gary
Tech Center Labs

I don't understand the Microsoft enmity, frankly.

I've used uSoft products for decades and they've done a fine job of whatever I needed them for. Right now I use XP and am content with it (other than the multitudes of folks "out there" trying to break into it). It's doing what I want it to do (mostly nothing other than handle the processing of NON-uSoft software) and allows others in my family to do what they want to do, too.

Sure, I have Ubuntu running "elsewhere" but that really was simply because I wanted to try it out and have a development environment that I was intimately familiar with (Unix programmer since the mid-70s). But I could have survived with uSoft.

Do I like uSoft's top-most management? No, I think he's a failure as a CEO and a jerk to boot.

But the uSoft products I use seem to be just fine.

I really am baffled by the association of Apple with any politics. What politics? Apple is a computer company. It's users span the political spectrum.

I'm very leftist, and have owned Palm, PCs, and for the last few years several Apple laptops. What about it?

You're not a paradox, you're a libertarian.

Why would you buy an ipod touch?

I thought the Pre did everything the ipod touch does.

Gekko seems to forget that his bitch-god Rush Limbaugh is all-MAC.

You anti-Apple guys are all weird! You're missing out on some of the best technology on the planet. Why? Because buying these great pieces of hardware labels you? Buying these great pieces of hardware helps turn everyone into sheep? Get a Fn grip, Apple is leading in quality, support, innovation, quality, quality, etc. Why settle for second best?
Disclaimer... I've always been a total Palm supporter but there comes a point when a reality check is in order.

Gary

Tech Center Labs

Philosophy won't mean much when your Pre goes on the fritz and Palm can't support it.

Published: Thursday, 22 Oct 2009 | 6:23 AM ET

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer on competing with Apple and Google

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33419795/site/14081545

You anti-Apple guys are all weird! You're missing out on some of the best technology on the planet. Why? Because buying these great pieces of hardware labels you? Buying these great pieces of hardware helps turn everyone into sheep? Get a Fn grip, Apple is leading in quality, support, innovation, quality, quality, etc. Why settle for second best?

Lol. At a bbq last week, discussion turned to Apple products. I brought up the meme that Apple has good build quality. Everyone at the table who had previously owned a Apple product proceeded to regale me with tales of broken iPod screens, dead unreplaceable batteries, busted iPhone mute switches, overheating laptops...

I'd say those that need to get a grip are those that have bought into this idea that Apple is somehow so much better than all the other tech companies out there, when they're really just turning into a worse version of Microsoft in the 90's.

Any platform that dictates what I can and cannot install on my own hardware with deliberate lockouts is far more deserving of the title "second-best", IMO.

It's alright. But peas in a pie? Mate. There's something that's just... so... wrong about it. Better is the beef & curry pie, or the Hot Dog de Wheels... without the peas.

And I've never been to Rockpool. Too freaking expensive! Harry's is much more to my tastes, and my budget...

Semi-daily. Goes good with boiled eggs.

Speaking of both Vegemite and Apple, Kraft tried to name their new cream-cheese-and-Vegemite blend "iSnack 2.0". Went down like a f*cking lead balloon. Worst. Name. Ever.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/unhappy-little-vegemites-vent-their-fury-over-isnack-20-20090928-g997.html

I never had the courage to try chou dofu, when I lived in Taipei or when I went back to visit. Is it really as bad as it smells?

i'll pass on the balut.

http://www.mutineermagazine.com/img/blog/balut.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s31nWSiminI

WTF? When did this become Teh Strange Food Channel?

You got a laugh out of me on that one.

>>>microwave pizza again tonight?

And today too. They were on sale!

The Spousie is home sick today (more or less). Asked me to make her "water rice" aka "congee" for some or "jook" to others. Anywho, not one to shirk my culinary duties I...of course...looked up congee recipes online just to see if I could make it a little more interesting. Finally decided on one that had as one of its main ingredients "century eggs".

How perfectly apropos for this thread!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_egg

Nah, didn't happen to HAVE any century eggs (I've always known them as Thousand Year Old Eggs) though probably could have hopped over to the local Asian market to get 'em.

But the water rice turned out fine, anyway.

forget winmob - webos is just as dead.

I'm waiting for Palm's first Android device...

which is it? webos better than iphone in a year or better now? you contradict yourself, chachi. try again.