Comments on: SD Card Dominance Projected

I totally agree! It's really nice to hear some good-ish news.

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Kevin | Iospeff
kevin707s@mchsi.com
Current PDA: SJ20

Palm and Sandisk are both working very hard to encourage sales of new SD memory cards as we speak!

(I'm really sorry, but I couldn't resist.)

Data is data. Can you hear me now ?

"Now where's all that great stuff the SD manufacturers paraded out years ago??"

It's sitting next to all the great stuff that Memory Stick manufacturers paraded out...

(Why do some people say you can kill two birds with one stone when it's hard enough killing one bird with two stones?)

As much as I feel like choking myself, I agree. From what I can tell, SD is NOT the future. Despite the pro-SD sentiment, CF has shown it doesn't require a bulky device, as the H2215 is a great size and has dual expansion. CF is the ideal expansion because it has high speeds, high capacity, and great peripheral/company backing. You're only kidding yourself when you say CF is on the way out. That statement has been downgraded to a myth. Now I know the people who read Brighthand and follow their opinions like a cult will refute this, but I just don't see CF on the way out.

Palm could easily integrate dual expansion in the way of SDIO and CF, but they've been quite ignorant to that for a while. I'll bet that's the only thing keeping people away from Palm. I repeat, integrate dual expansion in the TT3, and you'll have a product that's clearly head and shoulders above the rest.

-Bosco

Sorry, but nearly every PDA and digital camera released this year has come with a SD slot. If you go to a store, most MP3 players you find there with slots use SD as well. This isn't some wishful thinking like the Pocket PC folks have about beating Palm. SD is here. Go to any store and look at the devices they carry.

"When I get a digital camera,..."
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OMG I cant laugh anymore, my stomach hurts heheheheehehehe
hahahahahahahahahahaha...

> I can count on one hand how many SD peripherals there are.
> Two Bluetooth cards, Wifi card, Veo, and Margi Presenter.
> I count five. CF has an ungodly amount.

The article is about numbers of devices and cards sold. The number of I/O cards sold (SD or CF, total quantity) is very, very tiny in comparison to the nuber of flash memory cards.

> Also, the price for 1 GB on CF is $150 at the cheapest.

Most people don't buy $150 memory cards either. If your PDA, camera or MP3 player comes with a SD slot, you are not going to buy a CF card for it, period.

I certainly believe that there are some great advantages to CF, but if you go to a store and/or look at what is currently being sold on-line to consumers it's mostly SD. There are very few PDAs and cameras being sold currently with CF, and they are high end-models that sell in small quantities.

" The SD association has released a report that..."

Wow - the SD association releases a report that says that SD cards will be dominant in 2005. You really gotta believe that!

In other news, the CF association predicts CF modules will be dominant by 2004, Sony predicts that 'sticks will be dominant by Christmas, Iomega has proof that Zip disks will make a comeback this winter, a Taiwanese floppy-disk manufacturer says that floppy demand is soaring, and HP has proof that everyone will use printers to store their data on "floppy sheets of paper" any day now.

if you go to a store and/or look at what is currently being sold on-line to consumers it's mostly SD. There are very few PDAs and cameras being sold currently with CF, and they are high end-models that sell in small quantities.

I hadn't seen this comment when I made the above post. Regarding cameras, the last time I checked, manufacturers were all over the map, with CF, SD, Memory Stick and even a new format - xD - being used. I'll take your word that SD is becoming dominant in the low end.

The smaller size of SD may have a place in tiny MP3 players, but I believe almost any stand alone PDA that has SD could just as easily use CompactFlash. TRG/HandEra made a persuasive argument for the utility of CF in PDAs. Unfortunately, that argument fell on the deaf ears of the average consumer, leaving us stuck with SD peripheral vaporware, overpriced SD memory and SD cards being incinerated by the Tungsten|Toaster³.

I expect SD really won't be around for long. Expect the Memory Cartel (Memory Mafia?) to start pushing even smaller - and therefore more lucrative - formats in the near future. Sony is already doing this, much to the chagrin of early adopters. These format wars are all about finding ways to keep gouging consumers. I choose to not play that game. When the likes of Olympus, Nikon, HandEra, etc. are willing to listen and offer products that actually make sense, I support them. (I'm still waiting for Sony to announce a UX series CLIE with dual Memory Stick/non-crippled CompactFlash.)

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

Quote: "I was referring to Palm OS, not Palm"

So was I. PalmOS has around 50% global marketshare. PPC has 35%.

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My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16757

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My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

>>>The trend definitely is there though, and Palm must be very concerned about upcoming $150 - $200 PPCs further eroding Palm's dominance.

Everyone acts as if the only difference between choosing Palm or PPC is price. Puhleeze!

Quote: "I never trust Gartner data"

Well, who can you trust? There is no 100% accurate methodology for gauging the number or types of handhelds in circulation. Some firms measure actual sales at brick at mortar stores. Others count the number of units shipped by OEMs (which doesn't tell us how many were actually sold). By the way, Gartner does asses corporate sales. You're thinking of NPD, which measures only consumer retail sales. Or...if you really want a good laugh, you could take the vendor's word for it. PalmOne often boats they have some something like 25-30 million handhelds in circulation...but that figure includes the earliest models, which are no doubt buried in landfills across North America by now. Should those be included with the installed base? Mac users do the same thing, in an effort to inflate their presence in the market.

I would love to see a study giving us some definitive idea of what devices are really "out there". Simply going by personal experience, I would say the majority are older/cheaper PalmOS models. I see tons of Palm Vs, IIIs, some Handspring Visors. Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models. I've seen a number of PPCs throughout the year, but there again, it's always one of the cheap or discontinued models. But then again...the handheld market continues to whither. In 3-5 years these studies may be moot, if the PDA really is a dying product category.

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My blog: www.pocketfactory.com

Well, who can you trust?

Trust no one. The truth is out there Agent Mulder...

PalmOne often boats they have some something like 25-30 million handhelds in circulation...but that figure includes the earliest models, which are no doubt buried in landfills across North America by now. Should those be included with the installed base?

Maybe. A lot of those old models are actually still in use - to Palm's dismay. An original Pilot or Palm III works just as well (and in some ways better) today as any of the current models if you are primarily interested in having a basic address book + calendar, etc., so I think people that aren't technogeeks simply keep using what they have because it suits their needs.

I would love to see a study giving us some definitive idea of what devices are really "out there". Simply going by personal experience, I would say the majority are older/cheaper PalmOS models. I see tons of Palm Vs, IIIs, some Handspring Visors. Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models. I've seen a number of PPCs throughout the year, but there again, it's always one of the cheap or discontinued models. But then again...the handheld market continues to whither. In 3-5 years these studies may be moot, if the PDA really is a dying product category.

I agree with everything you say here. The III series and V series are by far the most common PDAs I see. I've seen only a handful of those boutique CLIEs - I think it's unlikely the average consumer is going to spend over $400 on a stand alone PDA these days given how cheap PCs and laptops have become. PDA vendors need to adjust their thinking to suit the realities of the market.

Integration into cell phones is the change that will finally bring PDAs to the Average Joette, but in doing so the stand alone market will probably collapse quickly. Has anyone seen a Sony-Ericsson Palm OS phone yet? That will be the coup de grace for stand alones.

Sometimes the truth just isn't pretty™

Quote: Rarely have I ever seen a Sony product, especially the high end swivel models.

I have to admit I've only seen a few in actual use, but I have to mention that they're using them exclusively on the dreadful show "Threat Matrix". I howl with laughter when I see them taking high resolution pictures, and wirelessly transmitting all sorts of massive data using them.

More marketing hype. As was pointed out, industry associations often glean together information to make things look rosy. Unfortunately, technology often moves to fast for industry standards, and industry clout often wins when other things being equal. For example someone commented about Sony memory sticks. Well no matter what happens with SD or CF, memory sticks will be around just because Sony has such widespread support for it's products in cameras, video equipment, PDA's, etc. Even Samsung now offers memory sticks in it's video equipment and SanDisk is now manufacturing memory sticks as well. Sony also seems to be ahead of the SD format in terms of reliability and capacity, so this is clearly not a betamax situation.

On the other hand, we may see entirely new formats coming out which could change the landscape completely. That's just the way things work.....

The only certainty is that whatever you have today will most likely be obsolete in the not-too-distant future. With all the hoopla about betamax vs. VHS, tapes have now been almost completely supplanted by CD and DVD technology. So don't worry, be happy with what you've got...for now anyway...

> SD to CF adaptors are nothing new.

There aren't any SD to CF adaptors out that fit a type I slot and fit in the same form factor as a standard CF flash card. This would allow you to move data between any CF device and a Palm.