Opinion: Mike Cane's 2003 Palm OS Predictions

Long-time PIC contributor Mike Cane emerges from the shadows to become a human target for the PDA zealots by again daring to predict what will happen with the Palm hardware and software platforms in the next year. Sony worshippers are advised to ingest a bromide before reading. Idolators should take digitalis.

Opinion: My Predictions for the PalmOS Platform in 2003
by: Mike Cane
Copyright 2002
by Mike Cane.
All Rights Reserved.
Exclusive to Palm Infocenter.

It's that time to look ahead to the new year. OK, so maybe this is early -- but I've been seeing Xmas ads on TV since before Halloween. Blame their influence! Last year, I wrote "My Predictions for PalmOS in 2002" and out of 10 key items, I was correct with 2.5 of them:

  • Handspring dropping Springboard (1 correct)
  • HandEra disappearing from shelves (1 correct), and
  • Sony introducing a dual-slot CLIE -- but not with the Memory Stick Duo slot I had predicted. (.5 correct)

Now pop into some other sites and read everyone else's predictions. We'll wait . . . OK, how many did they get correct? What? And some of them didn't make any predictions? Makes you glad you read PIC, huh?

The next year will be Palm's last chance to survive. All of Palm's past mistakes have been catching up to it. The Redmond Beast has been making large gains with Pocket PC. Even Sharp is stubbornly sticking with Linux for its Zaurus line. And then there is the ominous shadow of Smartphone. . .

Palm is doomed!!! people shriek.

But -- which Palm?

There is no longer one Palm. There's the Palm Solutions Group, the hardware maker (which I call Palm SG). And there's PalmSource, developer of the OS and Keeper of the Zen.

Palm SG I don't have much confidence in. The Zire? (OK, so it sells well even though it has no backlight.) The Tungsten T? (OK, so it's gorgeous and that stupid Bluetooth, instead of including smart WiFi, appeals to the cellphone-hungry Euros.) The Tungsten W? (Aha! A weak spot! Didn't they see how disappointing Handspring's Treo sales have been? And, OS 4?!!?)

PalmSource, on the other hand, has the promise of a brilliant future. Former-Newton programmers and former-Be programmers, freed from the constraints of any one hardware specification -- they'd all have to be moles from the Northwest to screw that up! So, let's be clear here. The next time someone who carries The Mark of the Beast shrilly accosts you with, "Palm is doomed!!!," you can calmly scream back, "Which Palm?"

And now, that which will transpire in 2003. . .

1) Palm SG Acquires Handspring
HandEra disappearing from the shelves is one thing. To have the sequel company of Palm Computing founder Jeff Hawkins go under is just catastrophic PR. The merger will be papered over with Hawkins wanting to retire to do brain research and the Big Lie that Palm SG will gain knowledge and experience from Handspring's Communicator efforts. Palm SG will continue to use the Handspring name as a brand for wireless devices. (And, no, they will not bring back the Springboard -- get over it!) The acquisition will be a stock swap with no cash changing hands.

2) Sony Drops Memory Stick
Hello, Sony! Bow low in your shame. The spirits of Ibuka and Morita sneer at you. Not only has Secure Digital surpassed you in capacity (and has always trumped you in form factor), you haven't the guts to admit it and obtain an SD license. You will in 2003. How odd that a (look at how bulky it is!) Compact (bulky!) Flash slot shows up in the NX (and before that, in a Japan-only sled for the T). This is a toe dipped into the wrong pond, upsetting the calm waters of potential buyers. Morita eventually admitted he took too long to drop Betamax. Learn from his lesson (or must I also mention the evil eVilla?).

3) PalmOS 6 Will Be Late
"Oh, every OS is late," you say. But this is different. PalmSource needs to finish OS 6 (or 666 as it will be cursed about internally) like a diabetic needs to have insulin. It cannot be late. PalmSource's Michael Mace may be reluctant to commit to dates, but the rest of us still have calendars (Date Book!). If there is not an OS 5.x release by late January 2003, you'll know there is trouble. This release should minimally be an incremental update of the four core apps (adding color font support) and the extermination of the Clipboard limitation (you took away our ClipHack with OS 5.0, now build it back in!). And at summer's TechXNY (aka PC Expo), PalmSource should also have a breathtaking presentation of a near-ready-to-ship OS 6. Surprise Jeff Kirvin!

4) PalmSource Will Sell Software
They will have no choice. And PalmOS device owners will demand it. Whatever happened to Cambio? Where are the OS 5 themes? These might not have been released, but they exist, they were shown. And some people might've wanted them. But the major reason PalmSource will decide to get into sales to end-users is due to the perversity of Palm SG. Hey, why did Palm SG use Web Browser Pro instead of the browser PalmSource offered? What if I prefer PalmSource's browser? Do I have to buy new hardware from another licensee that includes it? Slim chance of that! It's this kind of bad PR that will provide the impetus for sales to end-users. PalmSource will also sell nifty (and stable!) utilities of all sorts. And make much money doing so -- all without threatening the livelihoods of third-party developers (unlike an unidentified MonopoliSt).

5) Palm SG Releases Its Best-Ever Device
Sony will stick with its NR/NX clamshell design. Palm SG will take that large screen, get rid of the keyboard (and weight!) and produce a device with built-in 802.11b (and, of course, Soft Graffiti). Pocket PC owners will be astonished by its speed and long battery life. It will create demand for free WiFi public access points around the world.

6) Sony Kills Tablet PC
Sony gives Gates and Ballmer chronic indigestion by introducing the first "Tablet CLIE." It will be a one-piece mini-tablet just about the size of a mass-market paperback book with a 600x800 (if not higher) screen. Selling for just $899, people will look at it, look at Tablet PC priced at $2,000-$2,500 -- and Sony will sell jillions. This device will also drive ebook sales to unprecedented heights.

7) Fujitsu Licenses PalmOS
Stinging from the dismal sales of Tablet PC, Fujitsu will cast its eyes on PalmOS and produce the first "micro notebook" PalmOS device. It will fit right below its current Lifebook mini-notebook line (will it be called "Lifeboat"? -- nah, "LifePad".) Fujitsu will love ARM-based chips more than it loves Transmeta's chip. And the corporate market will set sales records buying this machine.

8) Dell & Gateway Do PalmOS
Michael Dell doesn't give a damn for Microsoft. He wants to make money. But Ted Waitt of Gateway needs to make money even more, so Gateway will announce it has licensed PalmOS first; in order to make Dell, for once, have to say "Us too!"

9) "Palmphone" vs. Smartphone
This is where PalmSource begins to show off. And they will deserve to. Given a blank slate on which to create, allowed to distill the incredible expertise and even artistry of ex-Newton and ex-Be craftsmen, they will have created The Ultimate Portable and Extensible OS. Fast, slick, modular, multitasking, multithreaded, wireless-aware, power-stingy, very well-behaved -- and even charming -- it will cause Symbian to fold and telcos to dump Microsoft's "Billyphone." The Handspring brand name will have new life and actually be very profitable. Motorola as a PalmOS licensee will make lots of money too.

10) "The OS People Use, Like, and Trust Every Day"
That's the point Palm SG, PalmSource, and all of the licensees will drive home in their massive marketing efforts. How long and how many people have used, liked, and trusted the Palm OS in their everyday lives across the globe. By this time -- the close of 2003 -- the problems with Smartphone will be well-known, Pocket PC's next major OS upgrade (which still won't be optimized for XScale) will have busted the installed base of third-party applications (again!), and all those who have been waiting to return to PalmOS will flock back -- because there will (finally!) be many very good reasons to do so. Ed Hardy will also get to gloat. (And I'll have to apologize for calling this article "the dumbest thing you've ever written!") (But not until then.)

11) Still No Global PalmOS Device
Even with all of the above progress, my eleventh prediction for 2002 will still go unfulfilled. I repeat it here with some updating: Of course, PalmSource's licensees will still miss a great opportunity. They will neglect to produce the first truly global PDA. There will still be separate ROMs for different languages. My dream of having a PDA in which I can effortlessly mix English, French, German, Japanese, Chinese, Russian, Hebrew, Greek and Korean in a single Memo, WP document, or web page will still have to wait. But then, there's always 2004 -- and just wait until you see what's in PalmOS Lucky 7!

[Full Disclosure: Composed entirely in Memo Pad using Graffiti on a Sony CLIE S320. Would you try this on your PDA?]

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How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?

dliao @ 11/22/2002 11:06:47 AM #
These are very interesting prediction indeed, however, I am surprised to find Mr. Cane to predict other company's design philosophy (#5) by guessing Sony will stick with the NR/NX design, and Palm SG will take some of its strength. I don't agree with anyone who challenges any company's design philosophy when they have nothing to do with the company, specifically the design teams of the company. Not to mention someone who's from total differnet world and culture (West East?).

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:16:17 AM #
Fair enough. But if Sony were going to do a keyboardless N-series, wouldn't they have done so by now? They're on a three-month product cycle, it seems. Palm has already said they intend to go after BT and WiFi markets. We'll see.

"stupid Bluetooth"?
pdangel @ 11/24/2002 12:02:01 PM #
"(OK, so it's gorgeous and that stupid Bluetooth, instead of including smart WiFi, appeals to the cellphone-hungry Euros.)"

LOL. Real funny. I think you mean "WiFi (battery sapping) hungry Americans". You made me laugh. Thanx. Mike Cane?

Stupid Bluetooth? Why not say "stupid wifi"?. What's the use of the word "stupid" here? Bluetooth and WiFi are DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES which serve DIFFERENT NEEDS/USES. Why not add both? I use both and i love them both....

If Bluetooth is STUPID then WHY are companies around the world like Microsoft, Nokia, IBM, Intel, Dell, Toshiba, Fujitsu-Siemens, HP/Compaq, Palm, Qualcomm etc. etc. backing this technology???? Because it's stupid???? YEAH RIGHT.

That all the important Operating Systems like Palm, Microsoft, Symbian, Linux and Apple have Bluetooth Stacks is because Bluetooth is stupid?????

That Intels upcoming Banias platform includes WiFi-Bluetooth Coexistence Solution is stupid?: Intel Wireless Coexistence System: Silicon Wave has collaborated with Intel to develop a Bluetooth + Wi-Fi wireless coexistence solution for Intel's Banias mobile PC platform. The Intel Wireless Coexistence System is based on Silicon Wave's SiW1701 and SiW1750 Bluetooth chipset and enables simultaneous operation of both Bluetooth and Wi-Fi wireless technologies.

That various handheld makers like Intermec, HP/Compaq and next year Dell have or will have both WiFi and Bluetooth built into there PDA's is stupid?????

Palm Tungsten T Bluetooth review

BLUETOOTH ROUNDUP: Palm, Products, Reviews, Compatibility, Setups, Software (56 total) e.g Games, Calendaring/Scheduling solution, SMS, Print Software etc....

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
adamrichman @ 11/24/2002 9:40:35 PM #
How long have you been reading PIC dude?

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/25/2002 8:45:04 AM #
"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

2 long. And Dude?

"and out of 10 key items, I was correct with 2.5 of them...."

That's great Mike.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/25/2002 12:01:14 PM #
>>"How long have you been reading PIC dude"?

>>2 long. And Dude?

... waaay too long.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/26/2002 3:24:34 AM #
Informative adding Mike. Wouldn't expect anything different beside your "stupid" quote.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/26/2002 11:47:23 AM #
Wow, I'm really hurt by some nitwit whose profile is set up to link "my homepage" to his own PIC profile.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/27/2002 5:37:10 AM #
1st. You call Bluetooth "stupid"
2nd. ...you follow with adding things like "waaaaay to long" and "am really hurt by some nitwit"

As if i would "hurt" you? What kind of nonsense is that? Am just astound that somebody who supposed to be an expert is using words like this. Tells me who you are.

My Predictions for the Palm OS in 2002
by Mike Cane: "The advantage is to use the side slot for data storage and the top slot for a camera, GPS, Bluetooth or even conventional Memory Stick storage."

What's the advantage of using Bluetooth with the slot if Bluetooth is "stupid" Mike?

I also wonder on which grounds a message will be deleted and if calling somebody names is included?

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:07:43 PM #
Hey, you started being smarmy. Go re-read your drivel. And change your handle, unless the "dangel" is really "dangle."

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 11/28/2002 8:49:53 AM #
This is called the world upside down....

Who started to call Bluetooth "stupid"?
Who started to call somebody names like "nitwit"?

Did i?

I just replied to you misquoted statements.

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
mikecane @ 12/2/2002 10:10:36 AM #
Don't mind me. I get cranky.

Can't we all get along?
xtremist5150 @ 12/31/2002 12:35:59 PM #
Woah, woah, guys....first off, the title uses the word PREDICTIONS. That means that there's a fair chance of being wrong, but based on current trends and customer expectations, it's a good way to see how things MIGHT turn out for the year 2003. Think of it as forecasting. Sure, the weatherman might be wrong, but based on patterns in the weather and from what we know about meteorology, he's giving you a BASIC IDEA of what to expect.

And Mike, don't stoop to anyone's level if they berate you...keep up the good work.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
DrDoofus @ 1/4/2003 7:08:06 PM #
In reference to this particular thread, I think the most important thing to remember is:

There are two kinds of people in the world; those who classify people into two groups, and those who do not.

RE: How can someone predict a company's design philosophy?
pdangel @ 7/28/2003 8:53:08 AM #
Tell that the script maker of the classic movie "the good the bad and the ugly".

The original quote is (The good=Clint Eastwood to the ugly=Eli Wallach : "There are 2 kind of people my friend, those with loaded guns and those who dig....now you dig"

You dig that?

"There are 2 kind of people my friend....those with wires and those without"


hkklife @ 11/22/2002 11:09:08 AM #
*shudder* That's a lot of stuff for me to have to digest during lunchtime. I agree with almost every point entirely, except for Sony dropping memory stick. Why? I was helping a buddy shop for a 36" TV this past weekend. Almost all of the "better" Sony Wega units (XBR, etc) had memory stick ports built into the front panels of their TVs. Since a TV, especially an HDTV model, is a device intended to "last" for a longer period of time (7-10 years at least) than your average piece of PC hardware, I doubt Sony would spend the $ to integrate a MS reader into their TV consoles without having at least some semi-long-term commitment to the format.

Also, I'd like to see Gateway sell a Palm OS device, even if it would be mostly rebadging ala IBM, but I am afraid it's not going to happen either. They are having some decent sales from their shocklingly low-priced plasma HDTVs, and I would not be surpruised to see them slowly transition to a boutique peripheral/electronics retail chain that happens to sell a few stylish PCs over mail-order at the same time. Think how Abercrombie & Fitch or Land's End transitioned from a catalog retailer to a brick and mortar retailer.

Regardless of whatever prophecies come true (or don't), kudos to Mike for an intelligent, insightful, and very well-written prognosis! Also, the part about Palm scooping up the remnants of Handspring should have already happened, so don't be surprised if that's a Jan. 2003 headline here at PIC! The final remaining supplies of Visors should be totally gone after this Christmas season, so the timing is just about right...

RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:18:16 AM #
I think the inclusion of MStick slots in other Sony lines will continue for quite some time -- there are a lot of Sticks still out there. But as for the CLIE...

RE: Wow!
Admin @ 11/22/2002 11:23:16 AM #
I have to disagree about Sony dumping the memstick too. Just look at all of the products that Sony makes that use the memstick: Clie's, digicams, video cams, audio players, TV's, Laptops, PC's etc... That is more than enough to support the format for some time.

Sony could come up with a Popsickle stick format and build it into all of it's products and it would become a quasi-standard.

RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/22/2002 11:46:20 AM #
Hmmm... perhaps I should have been more specific in my prediction headline? Perhaps: Sony Drops Memory Stick in CLIEs? Nah. I will leave it as it is, but I guess I should have made it more specific to CLIE. We'll see.

RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 11:57:34 AM #
But why has SONY fallen so far behind SD in memory capacity? Either way, if they abandon MS or not, it is a scandal that SONY has failed so miserably to develop this technology further especially because so many devices depend upon it.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: Wow!
melopsittacus @ 11/22/2002 12:02:57 PM #
1) I don't see Palm SG acquiring Handspring. The economics just don't make sense. Palm SG currently isn't a profitable company. Neither is Handspring. Palm is developing its own wireless solution. If Handspring can manage to maintain its marketshare I would predict, actually, that its brand gets bought up by one of the PPC companies.
2)No way. Certainly not this year.
3)No comment.
4)Not so sure. Yes, perhaps a browser, or a server solution. But it makes more sense that they would attempt to get a cut from independent companies by offering to bundle their products into different "packages." No reason why these bundles couldn't be sold, though.
5)Again, no way. Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field, b)as a way of developing an OS specific to laptops, and c)as a strategic attack against Adobe (hell, Corel is now basically a shell company for MS).
6) Well, if they can even marginally improve on the TT, then yes, I agree.
7 - 8). No. More likely that they go Linux, but most likely that they stick with PPC.
9) I agree that I am excited about Palm Source's potential. But they need a large score with one the phone folks, and this would require offering something the MS and Symbian do not at a cheaper price.
10)No. Bloat. Bloat. Bloat. This is what they will / need to stress. With all of the attention of FAT and unhealthy eating, an ad campaign that associates PPC devices with "LARDASS" practically writes itself. It would also serve to draw attention away from the "feature checklist" that MS has used with devastating success in every one of their platforms to date.
RE: Wow!
rsc1000 @ 11/22/2002 12:09:08 PM #
It is only the geeks here that have a big problem with MS versus SD - Sony isn't sweating any. After all, they sell more MS than all SD vendors combined. Thats the bottom line. They won't even consider dropping MS from CLIE just because PIC users like an open standard.

RE: Wow!
mtg101 @ 11/22/2002 12:20:15 PM #
Sony will drop the MS??? Oh come on they only dropped Betamax this year!!!

RE: Wow!
kevspalm @ 11/22/2002 2:23:33 PM #
Sony still uses MiniDisc. I think the MemStick will be around for a while.

Palm IIIx for 3 years & LOVING IT!
RE: Wow!
jeffreytz @ 11/22/2002 4:22:25 PM #
There are a 100 times more Memory Sticks in use than SD/MMC cards, which are just starting to really catch on now. If CF can survive this long (unbelievably, I bought another 256MB CF card the other day for my Canon digital SLR, they're so cheap!), than the Memory Stick is good for another 5 years.

RE: Wow!
robrecht @ 11/22/2002 4:25:28 PM #
I'm not worried about MS surviving or pointless arguments about open source versus proprietary formats--I just wish SONY would support it better by increasing MS capacity.

Thanks, Robrecht
RE: Wow!
Sowen @ 11/22/2002 6:22:24 PM #
Why do you say, "Sony Still Uses the Minidisc" as if it were a bad thing. The MiniDisc is a hugely sucessfull recording media in Japan, nearly every young person has one, and I think they are just starting to take off here.

RE: Wow!
cbulock @ 11/23/2002 12:27:08 AM #
SOny has said they will release 256MB, 512MB, and probably 1GB Memory Sticks this year. So the capacity will catch up to SD. There is no way they will drop MS. They have a great system going.

Take a picture with a Sony camera, view it on the Clie.
Catch a movie on your Sony video camera, watch it on your Clie.
Take pictures or movies with your Clie and pop the MS in any Sony laptop and view them.

I think the way Sony has integrated MS into there products wil improve even more in 2003 and certainly we won't see the end of the MS. Maybe they will do a SD/MMC and MS on a Clie, but that might still be unlikely.

RE: Wow!
dsm363 @ 11/23/2002 1:32:13 AM #
I would have to disagree with "Microsoft is using the Tablet PC as a) a strategic attack on handhelds especially in the medical field" The tablet PC is something physicians would definitely not use. They need something simple that fits in the palm of their hand or pocket, not a $2000 tablet that they have to lug around. There might be other uses in medicine but in few cases I think.

RE: Wow!
SuperUser @ 11/23/2002 5:10:06 PM #
are you trying to be interesting or are these really educated guesses ?
Sony drop memory stick in 2003 ? Sony kills microsoft Tablet PC ? ...
If you are not a psychic, there is no way I will believe these. Well, even if you are a psychic ...
RE: Wow!
elo @ 11/24/2002 10:26:06 AM #
MiniDisc has no peer as a recording format. It is intended as a replacement for cassettes and there is absolutely no good reason why anyone should still buy something that plays cassettes. MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.


RE: Wow!
rvdw @ 11/24/2002 11:16:06 AM #
> MiniDisc isn't going anywhere.

It doesn't need to, it's fine where it is. I have yet to see an alternative that matches MD in terms of pocketability, versatility and media price.

RE: Wow!
Nate @ 11/25/2002 4:47:44 PM #
1) As long as Sony makes digital cameras, the memory stick will continue to be their format.

2) The minidisc will be (has been) killed, at least in the United States, by HD-MP3 players.

RE: MemortStick (Duo) and Minidisc (was: Wow!)
goofrider @ 11/27/2002 3:20:26 AM #
MemoryStick is inferior to SD by all means (SD has better I/O capability and much faster transfer speed). But Sony will continue to support it even if no-one else is using it. Sony has the means to go at it alone.

Sony is introducing the smaller MemoryStick Duo this year, it'll be debuting in the Sony Eircsson P800 smartphone. This is further evidence that MS is not going away any time soon.

Minidisc is hugely popular in Japan, many parts of Asia and Europe. Just the Japanese market alone can sustain Minidisc for another 10 years.

While the U.S. audience has been rather negative about Minidisc, the US Minidisc market is still growing steadily and remains profitable. Even places like Target has been carrying Minidisc recorders and media for well over 3 years.

RE: Wow!
Maniac @ 11/27/2002 12:58:02 PM #
Not everyone have a computer or PDA (SHOCK!), so HD-MP3 isn't really going to kill MD just yet. Heck, it is getting more and more shelf space in our local electronic stores... (From nothing to a very visible little shelf in the audio department, it's pretty good.)

RE: Wow!
mikecane @ 11/27/2002 5:09:02 PM #
Heck, even I wouldn't pronounce MiniDisc dead.

RE: Wow!
JonathanChoo @ 11/27/2002 8:11:25 PM #
Minidisc is hughly popular in both Europe AND Asia. This is because of the size of portable player and the fact that you can now record up to 240 minutes on a single Minidisc which usually costs as cheap as 1 per blank for a good brand.

Current PDAs: Palm Tungsten T, Toshiba e310

Past PDAs: Palm V, Palm m505, Palm m515, Sony Clie N770C/U, Sony Clie T625C, Sony Clie NR70V

RE: Wow!
RedJess @ 1/2/2003 10:18:44 AM #
The only thing that so far rivals the minidisc is the iPod in regards to portablility- the majority to all of your music collect in one format on one device. Except that the lowest price for an ipod is about 300 dollars, where a good minidisc player can be bought for $150. Until stuff like the iPod is cheaper and more common, the minidisc won't die out.

RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:40:23 PM #
You guys reason like the US makes up the entire world. Minidiscs is the recording media of choice in Japan and Asia. And you are right: MS outsells the SD by a hundred times over. While you guys are just raving on and on and on about using SDs on your Palms, Cams, etc, there are people using MS on videocams, televisions, laptops, Clies, cameras, MP3 players, hi-fis and just about every other gadget you can think of. Maybe it's time to step out of that well.

RE: Wow!
brick @ 1/2/2003 11:49:51 PM #
I forget, but didn't I read somewhere Symbian trumps PPC and even Palm in sales volume in Europe?

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