CNBC: Palm's Major Credibility Problem
CNBC tech reporter Jim Goldman published a scathing piece on Palm Inc. late Friday. The article conveys the frustration among some investors and analysts have with Palm's management over ill timed misleading statements and the recent financial warnings. Goldman points to a perceived increasing lack of credibility which has been accentuated by recent disclosures.
Palm's got a credibility problem, and it's the kind of thing that seems so insidious, and so systemic, that it might pose a deep threat to the company's ability to keep going. [...]
If the company knew three weeks ago that Verizon and Sprint were stopping orders, why not just announce it then? Why dribble the news out, and attribute a manufacturing stoppage to the Chinese New Year, which would ultimately not pass the smell test since the work holiday typically only lasts a week and Palm's manufacturing has been suspended for the entire month?
Thanks, Gekko.
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RE: I agree with this...
You understood that, right?
RE: I agree with this...
RE: I agree with this...
RE: I agree with this...
RE: I agree with this...
Then the "Palm-Palm0ne-Palm" thing really slowed them down. Palm squandered 2004 & 2005 with very little product of interest, other than the Treo 650 and TX amidst a horribly drawn-out rebranding period.
ANY kind of name change would have numerous cost consequences, from to large-scale fees for legal/stock maneuverings & relistings down to ordering new pens/letterhead/product packaging etc. There's no need for them to burn through any more cash right now.
The best course of action would be to pick two or three good hardware firms (3 at most; HTC comes immediately to mind as the best initial partner) to partner with as WebOS licensees. Heck, it might even be wise for Palm to start slowly transitioning to a software/services house and put all of their strength behind WebOS development. If Palm offered them very reasonable-pricing licensing agreements AND held the line on lots of lame Sense/Blue UI enhancements that break compatibilityw with existing apps, adding WebOS licensees MIGHT help defray some of the continued WebOS costs and push the hardware envelope. Look
Just look at how the Handspring-Palm-Sony triumverate pushed each other to improve back in '00-'03. When Palm was still trying to peddle antiquated Palm V's and m100's, Sony and Handspring had USB connectivity and expansion capabilities (Springboard & Memory Stick).
Also, reintroducing the proven "Treo" branding again wouldn't be a bad idea for a higher-end prosumer device. And after the Pixi runs its natural course, brand its successor as the "Centro 2" or similar. There remains a considerable amount of brand equity and relative consumer confidence in the "Treo" and "Centro" branding.
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid
RE: I agree with this...
E-T
RE: I agree with this...
Finally, no one has mentioned the weather factor. Here on the east coast, sales in general have been affected by the record snow storms -- something no one could have anticipated.
wow. you just blamed the weather.
>hkklife @ 2/27/2010 7:49:52 PM
Heck, it might even be wise for Palm to start slowly transitioning to a software/services house and put all of their strength behind WebOS development. If Palm offered them very reasonable-pricing licensing agreements AND held the line on lots of lame Sense/Blue UI enhancements that break compatibility with existing apps, adding WebOS licensees MIGHT help defray some of the continued WebOS costs and push the hardware envelope.
no company in their right mind would pay to license webOS. why? because they can get ANDROID which has 1,000,0000X more critical mass (apps, backing, partners, penetration, etc.) for FREE.
no company in their right mind would buy Palm, Inc. why? because they can get ANDROID which has 1,000,0000X more critical mass (apps, backing, partners, penetration, etc.) for FREE.
RE: I agree with this...
BTW - after PalmSource was bought for an outrageous $300+ million here's what some "analysts" said about the deal:
== "This was really dumb," said Needham & Co. stock
== analyst Charles Wolf. Access is "paying that kind of
== money for a company with no real profits and one product.
== I'm stunned."
and
== "...Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin..."
==
== "...Questions about PalmSource revolve around growth
== and future devices," he said. "How much penetration can
== the Palm OS grab in the future?"
Don' t those just ring with familiarity with the current Palm!?
========
Here's a couple links to some PalmOS/WebOS prognostication:
RE: I agree with this...
"I can't resist telling you a true story from long ago. We owned stock in a large well-run bank that for decades had been statutorily prevented from acquisitions. Eventually, the law was changed and our bank immediately began looking for possible purchases. Its managers – fine people and able bankers – not unexpectedly began to behave like teenage boys who had just discovered girls.
They soon focused on a much smaller bank, also well-run and having similar financial characteristics in such areas as return on equity, interest margin, loan quality, etc. Our bank sold at a modest price (that's why we had bought into it), hovering near book value and possessing a very low price/earnings ratio. Alongside, though, the small-bank owner was being wooed by other large banks in the state and was holding out for a price close to three times book value. Moreover, he wanted stock, not cash.
Naturally, our fellows caved in and agreed to this value-destroying deal. "We need to show that we are in the hunt. Besides, it's only a small deal," they said, as if only major harm to shareholders would have been a legitimate reason for holding back. Charlie's reaction at the time: "Are we supposed to applaud because the dog that fouls our lawn is a Chihuahua rather than a Saint Bernard?"
The seller of the smaller bank – no fool – then delivered one final demand in his negotiations. "After the merger," he in effect said, perhaps using words that were phrased more diplomatically than these, "I'm going
to be a large shareholder of your bank, and it will represent a huge portion of my net worth. You have to promise me, therefore, that you'll never again do a deal this dumb."
Yes, the merger went through. The owner of the small bank became richer, we became poorer, and the managers of the big bank – newly bigger – lived happily ever after." - Warren Buffett
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2009ltr.pdf
RE: I agree with this...
this is so good i have to say it again -
they need a hail mary to save them from the hail mary.
The Lack of Credibility~W/Palm & Verizon & Sprint~
This is Where, Corporate & Internal Fear & Apprehension & Pressure & Anxiety~Sway Good Judgement...
This New Virtual Experience, Would Have Been Awesome For The Initial Consumer & The 1.4~Update~Enables The Customer To "Actually" Feel The Acute Responsiveness of the Machine.
It is Quicker~Faster~More on Point With The Assured Commands & The App Launching & Driving Their Internal Content, That is Inclusive, With The Work, They Actually Facilitate & Accomplish & Master For The Customer...in Rapid Fire Succession....
This Current, 1.4 Update, is True & Didligent in its Purpose in Developing This Product Line, of "Internal Function", Over, 150 Million Ludicrous Apps...which Can Always Be Leveraged, Once The "Machine" Becomes Operationally, "Stellar" in Nature.....
This Pre~Cell Phone Now, Has a Certain Snappiness & Executes, with Authority, Which, Brings This "Machine" a Great Deal More, Authenticity, Integrity, in Its Compelling Competency & Maturity & with a Sense of "Internal" Accomplishment & The Integrity of Those Accomplishments, Bleeds Right into The Domain of Positive Self Esteem, in Humanistic, Tech Talk~lol~Regarding The Greater Good, The Development of This Palm Pre & of Course~For Every~One Associated With This Global Project...
It Brings all of Us, a Chance To Bear in Mind a Need For a Complete & Thurough Game Plan, From Hard & Soft Ware Development To Pre~Launch, Then Launching & The Immediate Tech Support & Follow Thru..& @ All Levels of The Bureaucracy From Palm & Sprint & Verizon..
..As We Can See, The Big Three Are Playing Catchup, To Multiple Levels of The Pre~Teen, Anxiety & Latency & The Lack of "Mangaement By Objectives"...That Are Thoroughly Thought Out With The Contractual Agreements Between Palm & all of Their Carriers...
This is Very Shoddy Execution..in Terms of their Over All Business Goals & Objectives, Regarding, Development & Planning, Execution in The Internal Phone Development & in Marketing & Business Development..Arena's....
Palm, Sprint & Verizon, Should Take This in to Consideration, Before They Blunder Their Way Through individual Launches & The Business Develpoment & Marketing Efforts, That Need To Be Synergized For The Greater Good of the Project, Rather Than Splintered & individual & Home Boy Corporate~Wants & Needs...That Fracture, The Very Core of Ones Corporate Existence....
Respectfully Submitted~E. Patrick
RE: The Lack of Credibility~W/Palm & Verizon & Sprint~
E-T
The Lack of Credibility~W/Palm & Verizon & Sprint~
Since, I Rarely Comment That often on The High Tech Boards~&~
With All Due Respect, To Every~One....
If y'all, Remember, Last Year, on June,12th, 2009,
When Ur T.V.ision Set Switched From Analog to Digital~
My Friend & Client Invented That High Tech Digital Transmission & Transport System~Several Hundred Years Ago...lol...Way~Before it Was Actually Implemented, Last Year...
He Has Numerous High Tech Patents on The Ventura, Internet Highway & I Consider My Self To Be, Very Blessed, To Be in The Company of His Fertile Thought & Immpeccable Imagination, as an Inventor of Some Global Value & Standing with Him~on Sacred Ground~That We Share Two~Gether, on This Planet Earth~
We're Just Trying To Make a Difference & Leave a Few Foot~Prints,
For The Greater Good of Humanity...
Thats Why I Have Learned Over Time to Stay the Course & Trust,
My Educated & Time Tested & Intuitive Process~
Because, I Have Been Very Lucky To Be Associated With Some
Major, Game Changers, Like, One of My Mentors~
Dr. R. Buckminster Fuller..Known as Bucky Fuller & My Friend & Colleague, Phil Jackson, of The LA Lakers..Who Trusts Me, Imperceptably @ Multiple Levels, Regarding My Intuitive Thought Process & Pragmatic Clinical Judgement...Since We Have Worked Together For Years..
Find Them on John Doerr's, Personal Infomation Search~Page~on Google.!!!
So, To Quote an, Actual Rocket~Scientist~K.R. Sridhar~ The Visionary of The "Bloom Energy" Company That Was Featured Recently on
CBS~60 Minutes~& Has Been Funded, To The Tune of About 400 Million Dollars~By Visual Futurist~John Doerr, From The Silicon Valley Venture Cappitalist Firm, of Kleiner Perkins etc....
K.R. Said to Lesley Stahl, of CBS News & 60 Minutes Repoter...
"Its About Seeing The World, as What it Can Be~&~Not What it is"....
I Rest, Comfortably~Some~Where~in~Between....
Be~Well Live~Well
Respectfully Submitted....Easy~E.
aka~E. Patrick
Palm shares continue downward spiral
Palm shares continue downward spiral
By: The Associated Press | 04 Mar 2010 | 03:03 PM ET
NEW YORK - Investors have been selling shares of Palm Inc. at a rapid pace this year, worried that the company won't be able to turn its business around with new smart phones because of fierce competition from Apple and BlackBerry.
The stock has lost nearly 40 percent of its value so far this year. On Thursday it fell 22 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $6.05 in afternoon trading. Shares of rival Research in Motion Ltd., meanwhile, have risen nearly 4 percent year-to-date.
Palm has been looking to revamp its business with its new Pre and Pixi phones. But it faces tough competition from Apple Inc.'s iPhone, RIM's BlackBerry and Motorola Inc.'s Droid. Last month, Palm said it expects sales this year to be "well below" its earlier outlook of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion. It also gave a revenue forecast for the fiscal third quarter, which ended in February, that was well short of Wall Street estimates.
Avian Securities analyst Matthew Thornton sees the stock falling as far as $4 in the short term, since not even the stock's cheap valuation is enough reason for investors to dive in.
To make a comeback, Palm will need to improve its marketing efforts and launch strong hardware, according to the analyst.
"Everyone has universally accepted that the software is great," said Thornton in an interview. "(But) the hardware just doesn't stand out."
Coupled with lackluster marketing, the company has fallen behind its competitors. Motorola has done a much better job marketing the Droid, for example.
Thornton rates Palm "Neutral" with a target price of $6.50.
"I think they've got one more shot," he said. "Competition is only getting tougher. One more slip-up in the way of ho-hum hardware design and it's going to be lights out."
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
This company just won't die. Not as long as there are rich fools with too much optimism.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
E-T
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
I could see almost anyone (with enough cash) purchasing the company - more for their patent portfolio then anything else.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
patents? like what? and why not just use Android for free along with free R&D? why buy spend $1B+ to buy RC Cola when you have to compete with Coke and you can get the Pepsi formula and ingredients for free and all you have to do is bottle and sell it???????? am i making myself clear? does ANYBODY get it?????????????????????? RC Cola???????? Pepsi????????? COKE?????????????? DOES ANYBODY GET IT YET????????????
PALM
Share Price Market Value With 40% Acquisition Premium
$1 $166,666,667 $233,333,334
$2 $333,333,334 $466,666,668
$3 $500,000,000 $700,000,000
$6 $1,000,000,000 $1,400,000,000
$12 $2,000,000,000 $2,800,000,000
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
Totally OT: FWIW, a 20 oz. bottle of RC is still 49 cents at the gas station I frequent near work. Yesterday a 16oz. Coke was 99 cents there. Make of that what you will...
Pilot 1000->Pilot 5000->PalmPilot Pro->IIIe->Vx->m505->T|T->T|T2->T|C->T|T3->T|T5->Zodiac 2->TX->Verizon Treo 700P->Verizon Treo 755p->Verizon Moto Droid
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
their brands, patents, and carrier relationships are all tarnished and dated and near worthless and getting more worthless by the day as evidenced by their declining stock price.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
My numbers still stand. At $2/share, they'll get bought out by Nokia for $500M. If it hits that level, I'll plunk down change for some stock.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
========
Palm has 240,000,000 shares when the Preferred shares are converted to common.
Thus a $1/share price translates to $240,000,000 ignoring any debt and/or cash Palm has (and forgetting about a "premium" since that IS part of this post's numbers).
Note - very importantly note - however, that Elevation Partners gets ALL their Preferred share cash back BEFORE common shareholders get THEIRS, thus EP gets (I think) about $365,000,000 BEFORE any other common shareholder gets a penny.
That places a floor on what a likely buyout would bring in (since shareholder approval is a major part of buyouts).
I think it is unlikely a buyout would be approved for anything less than the current price and I think a corporate entity would have to be insane to offer anything close or above the current price for Palm.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
Nokia doesn't need Palm. Nokia is already here and has been here since way before you were making bagels. Nokia is not going to dump Symbian for webOS and pay $1B+ for the privilege of doing so.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
worthless brands? I agree 100%
carrier relationships? what carrier relationships :)
Palm likely doesn't have the cash to defend their patents, but they've been around for an awfully long time. Long enough to have put together a decent enough patent portfolio.
That *has* to be worth something.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
yes! i'm sure Graffiti 2 is worth BILLIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FOOLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
Nokia doesn't need Palm. Nokia is already here and has been here since way before you were making bagels. Nokia is not going to dump Symbian for webOS and pay $1B+ for the privilege of doing so.
Nokia is giving up on Symbian, haven't you heard? They turned it opensource and now they're pursuing Maemo. The only people that buy Nokia phones are snooty Eurotrash who love their own shit, no matter how bad it stinks.
They have no OS consistency. Therefore, I don't think they would hesitate to throw another one in the mix if they think they could capture some US marketshare with it. They're stupid enough to do it. If you haven't noticed, there is no shortage of companies that have tried to solve all of Palm's problems by throwing money at them. Should I run down the list again?
-Bosco
m105 -> NX70v -> NX80v -> iPhone -> iPhone 3G
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
E-T
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
E-T
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
Gibberish is a generic term in English for talking that sounds like speech, but carries no actual meaning. Speech or writing that is unintelligible, incoherent or meaningless; needlessly obscure.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
E-T, forget to take your meds?
To respond to Gekko, I doubt their patents are worth *billions*, but someone might pony up a few $$$ for them.
RE: Palm shares continue downward spiral
E-T
hkk
hkk - so am i going to hate Android 3.0? i'm looking getting at the HTC Supersonic on Sprint this summer. how is your Droid? grown on you yet?
i'm not optimistic that Sprint gets the iPhone until 2011 or later so i guess i have no choice but to go Android.
Android Pros -
1. seamless bulletproof push Gmail/Contacts/Calendar/Mail GoogleSync.
2. 1GHZ Snapdragon
3. microSD slot
4. removable battery.
5. lots of apps.
6. huge display.
7. very customizable.
iPhone Pros -
1. streaming live Bloomberg Radio capable.
2. more apps and universal standard.
3. ubiquitous and singular accessory/replacement ability. stores everywhere.
4. cleaner/smoother/faster/better GUI and virtual keyboard.
5. impeccable build quality.
PIM Apps - toss up?
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I agree with this...
Please spend some time in the real world working with these carriers before you start throwing around ridiculous assumptions like this that have a REAL impact on the companies involved. (And NO, I'm not a Verizo