palmOne Stock Dips Again

Posted By: Ryan Wednesday, September 8, 2004 4:04:31 PM

The recently volatile palmOne stock took another step downward today in trading on the nasdaq. For the second week in a row the share price dropped more than 10% on news of a new model that would compete with the Treo 600.

Shares were down 4.57 or 13% to close at 29.79, on heavy volume of just under 10 million shares traded. The price is still up significantly over the year, and has been on an upward trend since March.

One likely factor for the sharp decline was the announcement of a new BlackBerry Smartphone from RIM. The new BlackBerry 7100t will cost $199 and will be available exclusively through T-Mobile USA.

Just last week the stock took a similar dip on the rumor of a future phone model from Nokia that would compete head on with the Treo 600.

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Wow

RhinoSteve @ 9/8/2004 7:28:54 PM #
Looks like time to buy!

-- Passive Agressive types need not apply.
RE: Wow
mikecane @ 9/8/2004 7:36:09 PM #
A fool and his money ...

RE: Wow
hkklife @ 9/8/2004 8:24:55 PM #
If not ain't the time for a carefully placed leak from P1, I don't know what is!! At the very least, confirm or deny the availability of OS6 unit(s) this fall!

It seems like for the past 3 years or so, the June-Sept doldrums set in and Palm/P1 just grinds to a halt, new product-wise as the user reports begin to trickle in about the current crop underperforming/unreliable products launched in the spring. Then the buzz begins to build about a new model for October and the anticipation sets in anew!!

RE: Wow
Foo Fighter @ 9/8/2004 10:48:11 PM #
I see Baron von Munchausen (aka RhinoSteve) is still spreading his usual dose of delusional cheer.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com
RE: Wow
Foo Fighter @ 9/9/2004 9:58:57 AM #
>> "If not ain't the time for a carefully placed leak from P1, I don't know what is!!"

And what will this accomplish other than to wreck sales of existing models and place PalmOne on the verge of financial ruin?

Now is not the time for PalmOne to pull an Osborne.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

RE: Wow
mikecane @ 9/9/2004 10:12:00 AM #
Even dead (may he RIP), Osborne lives.

For the lads born too late:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Osborne

RE: Wow
hkklife @ 9/9/2004 11:41:50 AM #
Erm,not be suggesting another m5xx announcement/launch scenario, but I'd imagine that P1 sales are pretty much in the doldrums now anyway, what with BB pulling out of the PDA market almost completely and the other chains scaling back their PDA offerings. Perhaps a well-timed LEAK (not official announcement) and a few weeks ahead of schedule release of the Treo 650 for Sprint would be enough to keep a few current Palm users from migrating to PPC in the next couple months. Just look at all of the comements of PIC members who are saying "If T5 doesn't have dual wireless I'll jump ship to the PPC camp" etc.

P.S.

If P1 is still around in its present state in 2 years' time, I would wager that they will offer no more than 3 or 4 non-smartphone PDAs, mostly low/midrange models.

RE: Wow
RhinoSteve @ 9/9/2004 5:21:20 PM #
I guess no one here knows how to short sell.

Hawkins and Nagel
Gekko @ 9/9/2004 5:25:19 PM #

Hawkins and Nagel will glady sell you some of their shares!

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/45/503.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/t/46/3395.html



RE: Wow
mikecane @ 9/10/2004 10:02:40 AM #
Gekko cracks me up again.

It's not just BB ditching PDAs. In NYC, DataVision, which used to be whole hog for PDAs, has cut back their section drastically. There are now more GPS units than PDAs on display -- and I'm including The Abomination of PPC.

RE: Wow
Sleuth255 @ 9/10/2004 10:08:19 AM #
P1 needs to officially announce the ACE. It may not help Treo sales, but it will help their stock price. The RIM announcement is for future availability too. Is it hurting current BB sales? If so why do it? Answer: positioning.

RE: Wow
mikecane @ 9/10/2004 10:50:34 AM #
p1's mass unveilings happen next month. TechXNY (aka PC Expo).

Buh-bye

tthiel @ 9/8/2004 9:36:40 PM #
There is no money to be had in the PDA market. Palm will lose the PDA/Phone market to cell phone companies. It's only a matter of time. The new Treo should have been out 6 months ago and the new Tungsten the same.

RE: Buh-bye
AyDb @ 9/9/2004 3:19:00 AM #
Wrong. The attempts to add PDA functions to phones are at best a trainwreck. PalmSource and Sony-Ericsson, the two players with viable OSes, end up with their (and their licensees') offerings so overpriced it's ludicrous. Meanwhile, Motorola and Nokia have a field day selling phones that are cheap, but lack anything in terms of capability. They have system cores that are so proprietary it's a joke. Trying to replace PDAs without having any options for third party software, and kind of office apps, ANYTHING, is just insane. I will never understand the illogic of people who say that PDAs are dying, or that phones are taking over. The phone market being the way it is, they could never hope to replace handheld computers, save perhaps in the hands of teenagers who are more concerned with emailing crappy pictures than doing anything productive. Sure, PDA sales fluctuate. So does everything. The U.S. Dollar is down enormously from four years ago, but I don't hear anyone saying that it's the end of the U.S. Dollar. PDA sales fluctuate. I expect that TV sales plateaued more than once in their very early years, too. Handhelds won't die because the core concept and form-factor are solid, and much better suited to serious applications than a phone.

RE: Buh-bye
Token User @ 9/9/2004 9:05:48 AM #
Wrong. The attempts to add PDA functions to phones are at best a trainwreck. PalmSource and Sony-Ericsson, the two players with viable OSes, end up with their (and their licensees') offerings so overpriced it's ludicrous. Meanwhile, Motorola and Nokia have a field day selling phones that are cheap, but lack anything in terms of capability.

PalmOne is the manufacturer of the Treo. PalmSource licences the OS ... not only to PalmOne, but also Kyocera (7135 - OS4, but stil a very capable SmartPhone), and Samsung (OS4 model now hard to find, with OS5 model coming).
Sony-Ericsson is a cellphone manufacturer. They license their OS from Symbian. A company owned by Nokia. Sony-Ericsson is a joint partnership, and not the licensee of the PalmOS from PalmSource.
Nokia use Symbian for their SmartPhones (the ones you would compare with a Treo) - very capable OS .... and not all their phones are cheap.
Motorola use a Java based OS, a highly capable cross platform OS.

You forgot to mention Research in Motion - but I guess they aren't viable competition because they are Canadian :)

Convergence is coming. Phones are getting smarter, PDAs are getting more conected. The device you carry will likely refelct what you do most - data or voice. This might be a trainwreck from two immovable paradigms coming together, but it could also be the start of something new and improved.

~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

RE: Buh-bye
Xian @ 9/9/2004 11:21:48 AM #
Just a minor correction, Symbian is a jointly owned company, whose owners include Nokia and Sony Ericsson.

RE: Buh-bye
Token User @ 9/9/2004 12:42:22 PM #
Very true ...

Sybian Ownership (%)
Ericsson 15.6
Sony Ericsson 13.1
Nokia 47.9
Panasonic 10.5
Psion 0.0 (was a little over 30%)
Samsung 4.5
Siemens 8.4

Sony Ericsson have about as much of a stake in Symbian as Sony does in PalmSource. Also, the Metrowerks Symbian development tools are now owned/managed by Nokia. So, while other companies have a stake in Symbian, I think it is pretty clear who is in control :)


~ "Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed." - DV ~

RE: Buh-bye
CaptMyCapt @ 9/9/2004 1:38:24 PM #
PDA's are here to stay. Cell Phone screens are too small and making them much larger are counter-intuitive for the many who want small cell phones and who don't want to hold a laptop up to their ears (Bluetooth notwithstanding). PDA's are here to stay . . . they are even projected into the future . . . just look at Star Trek!

I, Captain

"You will never make progress trying to sail into the wind - chart your course!"

RE: Buh-bye
AyDb @ 9/10/2004 12:36:05 AM #
PalmOne is the (Snip) PalmOS from PalmSource.

I know all that. What I'm talking about it the classes of device, the Palm based smartphones and the Symbian based ones--SE being the far more capable of PDA functions over the Symbian-based Nokias. And what I'm driving at is that all the smartphones of any real substance are priced insanely out of reach.

Motorola use a Java based OS, a highly capable cross platform OS.

Except that it isn't 'highly capable' if you can't do anything with it. Show me the reams of third-party software. Show me the equivalent to Documents to Go or Textmaker. Show me the full HTML web browser with single-column rendering. Go ahead, I'm waiting.

PDAs might be getting more connected, but they don't seem to be getting much more phonelike. My bet is that if anything comes of this, it will be that cellular radios become more common in handhelds--not for the purpose of being phones, but simply for wireless internet. In that case, there'd be no point in trying to shoehorn unneccessary connectivity features into phones, and you could let them be phones. Even if that were to happen, however, it would be at most temporary. There are movements afoot to deploy WiFi over large areas using mesh networks, and in a few years WiMax will be making an appearence.

RE: Buh-bye
RhinoSteve @ 9/10/2004 11:21:17 AM #
I heard it best this way...

"PC Companies doing PDAs is line Ford trying to get into the motorcycle business. Cell phone companies trying to get into the PDA business is like Mack Truck trying to get in the motorcycle business. Neither can design their IP to make it small and flexable enough to sell well since they don't know the customer base."

If I had a dime for every poo-poo I heard on here that PDAs are dead and bought PalmOne stock, I'd be even more of a rich man.


Titanic

Gekko @ 9/8/2004 9:39:10 PM #

They're polishing the brass on the Titanic. It's all going down, man.



RE: Titanic
SaabCaptain @ 9/8/2004 11:01:00 PM #
I am a LONG time Palm user... but the PDA market has been stale for 3 years now and nothing, nothing on the horizon seems to make it more interesting. OS 6 for 99.9% of users will be basically identical to OS 5, nothing new.

The Treo 650/Ace is exciting if it were a bit smaller, and about $200-300 ... oh wait, that is the new BlackBerry! I know the BlackBerry isn't in the same league in features as the Treo but among the most important features it is damn close while kicking butt with cost.

No wonder why the ship is sinking.

owned: Pilot 5000, PalmPilot Pro, Palm V, Casio E-11, IIIc, m505, Sony T615, Tungsten T, iPaq 1945, Tungsten E.

RE: Titanic
Foo Fighter @ 9/8/2004 11:16:04 PM #
>> " They're polishing the brass on the Titanic. It's all going down, man."

...Says ensign Gekko to his shipmates on the bridge.

You realize of course that the PDA market is going down with them, don't you?

We are witnessing the decline of a PRODUCT CATEGORY...not a company. PDAs are a dead market. Profits are gone...Sony is gone..followed by Toshiba, Tapwave, and within the next 12-24 months you can expect Dell to join the rest of the Society of Abandoned Hopes. In the end only two players will be left competing for what few table scraps remain in PDA sales: HP and PalmOne.

So man the lifeboats while you still have a chance, Gekko. Or at least grab some souvenirs before the ship slips beneath the waves.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

RE: Titanic
lab_monkee_see_all @ 9/8/2004 11:27:19 PM #
This is real fun. I've been following threads all over the internet regarding the new models and the race to be #1 in the PDA market....

Anyhow, if the ship is sinking...does anyone know if my Tungsten C floats? I'm going to be totally lost without it. I won't even know what to eat.

Lastly, I get dibs on the redhead. What a hottie. The ship is sinking and you guys can only think of PDA's....what a bunch of geeks....hehehehe....

RE: Titanic
Foo Fighter @ 9/9/2004 12:25:09 AM #
>> "Lastly, I get dibs on the redhead. What a hottie. The ship is sinking and you guys can only think of PDA's....what a bunch of geeks....hehehehe...."

Well I tried to pick up the brunette at the end of the bar, but all that got me was a slap in the face. So I settled for a jar of ****tail olives instead. Oh, and I also helped myself to the silverware in the galley as well as the towels in the ship's spa.

By the way, did anyone else notice all those barnacles on the hull as she capsized? What a mess.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

RE: Titanic
Foo Fighter @ 9/9/2004 12:30:26 AM #
Dear god. Ryan's censor software blocked out the word c-o-c-k-tail. Oh the shame of it all.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com
RE: Titanic
just_little_me @ 9/9/2004 4:52:31 AM #
God, if I had a dollar for everytime some *dufus* said "it's all over man!" I'd be a rich man by now.

Twit's like yourself have been calling the demise of Palm and PDA's for over 5 YEARS!


JLM.

RE: Titanic
mikecane @ 9/9/2004 10:13:52 AM #
I'm beginning to think the PDA is NOT dead. Well, except for maybe PPC (so-called gaining marketshare will turn out to be an illusion; it will not be sustained -- watch when all the sales for new models fail!).

For all the attraction of the OQO and even Flybook and others, having started to use an OS5 device (finally! -- which I will do an article about for PIC after the PPC one), my eyes have been opened. The immediacy is just amazing. This speed cannot be matched by the OQO, neither for instant-on access nor for actual *work*. (I await Foo's alleged review -- alleged, because hey, isn't it getting towards Fall? Any OQO in sight yet?)

palmOne is in a good position with the Treo, but man, they have got to get that price down down down. If anything is a threat to PalmOS PDAs, it's *Blackberry*. I'm beginning to see these suckers all over the place now. That new BB phone is a huge threat.

If p1 does get the Treo price down, it will steal sales from their own PDAs, but at least that money will go to *them*. As for me, I still want a *PDA* -- a 320x480 or greater screen with WiFi (and maybe OS6?!!?). The Treo can wait a few more models...

MS Smurfphone? Don't make me laugh (OK, *do* make me laugh!).

RE: Titanic -- an iceberg?
mikecane @ 9/9/2004 10:24:59 AM #
Then again, something *could* come out of the blue...

http://www.pepper.com/products/pepper_pad_2_specification.html

http://www.geekzone.co.nz/content.asp?contentid=3324

Foo, get a review unit!

RE: Titanic
ardiri @ 9/9/2004 10:41:43 AM #
i just purchased the sony vaio u70

http://www.pdabuyersguide.com/notebooks/sony_vaio_U50.htm

(u50 reviewed there, but u70 = better). i look forward to using this little sucker. 1Ghz PIII-M, 512mb ram, 20Gb HDD, touch screen and 802.11g WIFI. i dont see any handheld getting close to that in a while - even the OQO doesn't spec up as good (and, its still vapourware)

as for Pocket PC, Microsoft Smartphone, Symbian Series 60, Palm - they all have a need/place/requirement for different type of people. just because you dont like the PPC, it doesn't mean its crap. the latest C500 smartphone is actually quite a nice little unit - also the new motorola pocket pc device (MPX), which i was able to tinker with earlier today when meeting microsoft (its not released yet).

i think the u70 will be my dream handheld :) will be able to run MAME on that, and everything else i develop (its win32). it just comes with a hefty price tag.

---
Aaron Ardiri
PalmOS Certified Developer
aaron_ardiri@mobilewizardry.com
http://www.mobilewizardry.com/members/aaron_ardiri.php

RE: Titanic
Foo Fighter @ 9/9/2004 11:07:07 AM #
>> "(I await Foo's alleged review -- alleged, because hey, isn't it getting towards Fall? Any OQO in sight yet?)"

Apparently OQO hasn't sent out review units to the press yet. I'll send their PR rep an email asking whats up.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

RE: Titanic
Foo Fighter @ 9/9/2004 1:10:48 PM #
>> "Foo, get a review unit!"

Done! My name is on the list to receive a review unit, according to the PR Rep I spoke with. Now the question is...when will that be? Who knows.

-------------------------------
Editor, http://Pocketfactory.com
Contributing Editor, http://digitalmediathoughts.com

RE: Titanic
Gekko @ 9/9/2004 4:25:27 PM #

>"F*** Martha Stewart. Martha's polishing the brass on the Titanic. It's all going down, man. So f*** off with your sofa units and Strinne green stripe patterns."

Nobody recognizes that quote from a very prophetic 1999 movie?

The Answer and a GREAT midi:

http://www.neomillenium.org/fc/fightclub.htm

RE: Titanic
AyDb @ 9/10/2004 12:45:00 AM #
I'm beginning to think the PDA is NOT dead. Well, except for maybe PPC (so-called gaining marketshare will turn out to be an illusion; it will not be sustained -- watch when all the sales for new models fail!).

Mike,

You're insane. More and more people are choosing Pocket PCs, and you think that this somehow hurts the Pocket PC market? What color is the Kool-Aid where you are? Whatever Palm-fanatic tripe you're spinning about how repulsed everyone will be with the Pocket PC OS is patently false. People have been buying PPCs for years, and they like them. And more people are choosing PPC because that's where the value lies. That's why PalmOne needs to seriously compete with Pocket PC manufacturers, dollar for dollar, feature for feature. This is the same attitude that kept Palm saying that users don't want a color screen, or a fast processor, or a wireless internet connection. The fact is that they do, and the faster that PalmOne realizes that the Emperor is naked and starts targeting the majority of users, the better.

RE: Titanic
mikecane @ 9/10/2004 9:11:36 AM #
Multiple replies in one:

ardiri: That Sony is very nice. I fondled the 50. A tad heavy and bulky, but great promise.

>>>just because you dont like the PPC, it doesn't mean its crap

This is true. But the fact is, whether I like it or not, is that it IS crap!

For the PPC weenie: wait and see. Sales will tank. One dose of that clap is enough. PalmOS penicillin to the rescue in the form of Treo.

RE: Titanic
Sleuth255 @ 9/10/2004 10:17:36 AM #
Damn. PDA's are dead? I'm lost without my T3.



RE: Titanic
AyDb @ 9/11/2004 1:17:34 PM #
Sales will tank. One dose of that clap is enough.

Pocket PC sales have been rising for two years, and Palm sales have been falling for two years. You don't think that that's long enough for people to stop buying Pocket PCs if they don't like them? And you've been predicting this same thing for years, too. The fact is, there is no backlash. As incomprehensible as it is to you, most people don't mind using a Pocket PC. In fact, 48% of the market prefers it over Palm. PalmOne needs to wake the hell up and start producing models to really compete on features. The Treos are far too expensive to compete with most Pocket PCs, and the phone niche isn't one where you can get the large number of consumer sales.

Can anyone here concieve of the idea that PalmOne actually needs to compete, and can't simply be lifted into heaven on the wings of its own innate perfection? And here's another question--how many people here have actually owned a Pocket PC? I always hear all these tired old memes about Pocket PCs, and as far as I can tell no one has actually compared them against the reality. I have both an Axim X30 624 MHz and a Tapwave Zodiac 2 in front of me, and I've also had the Zire 72 and Tungsten E. The Axim is the best unit of the four, because it offers more speed, features, and value. THAT is what I'm talking about. PalmOne needs to compete.

RE: Titanic
Gekko @ 9/11/2004 7:03:04 PM #

AyDb - well said.


The Fight isn't Over Yet

VT-Vincent @ 9/9/2004 12:35:29 AM #
I don't see why there is this impending sense of doom floating over the Palm community this last few months. The company's overall performance is at it's best in the last 2 years and the company has also gone through worse tumbles than this.

The entire PDA market is slow right now, and I think it will eventually pick up. I also don't see SmartPhones taking over the world seeing as the majority of them are vastly inferior to most PDAs in the last three years.

----------------------------------------
Future Tungsten T3 owner.
Status of iPaq H1945: Settling in on it's new home, eBay.

RE: The Fight isn't Over Yet
cbowers @ 9/9/2004 1:45:03 AM #
Well, a few reasons. Lack of acceptable product. And then there's always the comparitive pricing on those Dell Axim X30s. 624Mhz processor, Bluetooth and WiFi, all for $267 including shipping. Some would argue that Fiats, Renaults, and Ladas can be had cheaply too. But then those doen't exactly have the Dell's Porsche specs. To which they insert the obigatory retort, that one needs Porche specs to drag the boat anchor of it's OS.

To which I post my yearly comment, that Palmsource should get HP and Dell onboard. If they can put out the hardware at those prices then move over PalmOne, your 15 minutes are over.

Gizmodo link
http://tinyurl.com/699az

Sure I supported them with my dollars in the form of Tungsten C purchases. But that's because there's nothing else in the platform for me as an option. And that's the current problem with the platform.

Based on past performance as far back as the M500, even *if* they wow us with something in October/November, they'll loose half their kudos for taking this long and letting the market slip so far, and the other half when they take a further 2 years for the next follow-up.

Not that PalmOne ever listens, but here's what I'm looking for.
Built-in keyboard (backlit would be nice).
Minimum 400Mhz processor
WiFi+Bluetooth
Minimum 1400MaH battery, preferably user swappable
Greater than 320x320 screen
A backlight that is substantially dimmable
PalmOS 6
Stereo output, mic input + built in mic
Minimum 64MB RAM
Standard DC in port
USB host mode, and firewire would be no biggie to put in either

As for this last item, HD based MP3 players have shown that a hard drive , which many seem to desire, in PDA that already has just enough battery life (if there is such a thing), does not need the baggage of a hard drive. But put USB host and or Firewire on the PDA, and now you can use anything from a USB flash dongle to an Ipod for your data options. A Tungsten C paired to an Ipod could go all out together for 2 maybe 3 hours (remember that an ipod only gets it's 8 hours life substantially playing from flash, with the HD spooled down). But put that hard drive in the PDA, and your life will be less than an hour. So to those hoping for internal 4GB+ Cornice/IBM/Toshiba/Hitachi CF hard drives, be careful what you wish for.


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